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flow of reads - palmar
On December 03 2015 17:45 Palmar wrote:
My current town circle is:
Damdy
LS
Shining
Me
I don't really trust many other people.
after d1 lynch
On December 04 2015 03:27 Palmar wrote:
I actually like Rels right now
night 1
On December 04 2015 22:03 Palmar wrote:
Btw this is the current world view I'm working with:
Probably town:
Rels, for effort (although I know he does it as mafia too, but who cares, he deserves at least to be not the mafia we're looking for).
LS (EoD shennies)
Shining (his entire reaction to my palmartunnel™ on day 1. Especially the part where he created an excuse to leave the thread and then didn't).
Leaning town:
disformation (mostly a leftover tone read from day 1. I've yet to read a post of his that feels forced or awkward).
People who I have read some parts of, but not really made a judgement on alignment:
Fidei (I liked his first post because he spotted exactly the same thing as I did with regards to shining. I often overvalue such mind-melds, but meh. I feel like I should just sort of give him a pass for today, but I'm not certain).
People who I have ignored/Have little opinion on:
DoYouHas (his filter on day 1 was bad, but I sort of started ignoring him after misreading one of his posts. I should probably have looked into him anyway)
HtS (I remember thinking "that's unusually awkward, even for HtS" at some point, but other than that I have generally flat out ignored everything she says. Very worthy candidate to investigate for me)
People I have not read at all
The replacements
People who I am slightly suspicious of
Trfel (It's sort of a sheep from Damdred, but also his emotional outburst yesterday. He was really over the top about a few people not listening to his read on moosy).
So yeah, I don't have a strong scumread right now. I have no "gotcha, this guy is mafia", but I have a basis to work upon.
Given that hts and dyh are the people with votes on them, I'm going to focus on reading them and the cases for them being mafia. For those of you that haven't played with me before, I have a very annoying habit of ignoring people who are mafia (which is another good reason to look into dyh and hts). Basically the theory is that mafia people just post to fit in, whereas townies are posting a lot more entertaining/insane stuff. So I end up not reading boring mafia posts.
My reads in general are sort of fluid, but I'll figure it out.
list post night 1
On December 05 2015 04:00 Palmar wrote:
I'm firmly team NM
throughout day 2, this was his second occurrance of this.
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and of course I forgot but I had previously quoted his last post night 2 - suspicion on fidei/trfel with the primary being palmar.
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I'm thinking corroborate NK WIFOM reads also from d1 and see where the aggregate takes us, if anywhere.
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On December 02 2015 00:25 Damdred wrote:
Let me explain in some semblance of an answer.
Trfel uses stupid arguments early to try to convinced thread that damdred is scum. (I use stupid here not in offense to trfel)
Time passes, damdred town leans him for the stupid argument.
Later trfel decides his argument is partially stupid so apologizes for it but states he still doesn't think damdred is totally town.
Scum trfel doesn't like giving up things and fights for his stupid arguments. I know this is wifom so I font think its indicative.
Its different if only slightly
several posts where Damdred goes back and forth on trfel. referenced from filter.
On December 02 2015 09:36 Damdred wrote:
Disinformation
Eels
Damdred
Shining
Palmar
Leans
Trfel
Fid (falling)
Ls
Honestly it's notso bad so far even though I've read 0 filters.
On December 02 2015 22:26 Damdred wrote:
##vote fidel86
I'll answer trfel after coffee
On December 03 2015 06:34 Damdred wrote:
It was mainly a pressure vote (which really wasn't even a real vote no vote thread)
Fid is sort of a mystery to me, I like several of the things hes saying but his general lack of activity is indicative of his scum/lurkiness that I've come to expect.
His recent list posting looked really towny to me though, so hes still a town lean but I wouldn't sleep on him.
I really encourage everyone to read and vote for LS. If I have to case him I will but i'd rather people make there own decisions in life.
(note I am ignoring also his reads on LS since he also believed after night 1 LS was modconfirmed town)
On December 03 2015 07:05 Damdred wrote:
Sure shining,
before we go down this rabbit hole where you are trying to vet me. Remember we have 56 minutes before lynch roughly and you need to comment on what i'm saying on LS. That is the most important thing right now.
Fid was a town read earlier in the day for me almost right out of the gate, his lack of activity caused him to drop for me almost out of my town reads. He still hadn't done anything when I woke up so I "voted" him as I didn't really vote in the vote thread i'm not sure you could call it that however. It was pressure to see what he would do.
His posts afterwards as I've caught up have seemed not so bad his read post I liked to some extent.
On December 03 2015 08:18 Damdred wrote:
Yeah.
Damdred
LS
Shining
Rels
Palmar
That's my strong town circle.
On December 03 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Trfel I honestly don't know what you want me to say, I interacted with you when it was important eod.
You were obviously fishing early d1 to try to drag something out a sort of trap if you would, but you went off the rails when I put my own trap around you. Which resulted in your town read. Though your over reaction about it over all is sort of concerning.
The LS thing isn't really alignment indicative, trying to save your life goes both ways. LS is town though so shrug.
On December 03 2015 10:21 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +Right now I'm most suspicious of Damdred, NocturneMage/MoosyDoosy, The Shining, Fidei86, and Rels (in no particular order). There's been a lot that happened since I last did serious analysis, though. this is a really really strange list of people.
(the above quote coming from trfel)
On December 04 2015 05:37 Damdred wrote:
Like I said I'm not going to have time to read up before deadline.
I have the reasons I scummed ls in my filter several times.
You so silly though disform.
Also trfel since you are trying to be better at the game, you are using incomplete meta to try to prove someone is scum... While I applaud your tenacity show me something tangible ie actions from this game that are scum motivated.
the above in bolded showing a waffling on trfel - could be town (first fragment) and second is a potential mafia tell for him (reference geript, newbie 17, possible reservation this game)
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so aggregate wifom nk analysis - (learnt in newbie 14 when I was cop from rsoultin)
LS is likely town/disformation probably town
Fidei/Trfel with some reasoning to kill one and/or both of these people.
Interesting. Not definitive obviously but interesting.
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wait, disformation second half of your last post I think you are completely misunderstanding.
first quote - that was nothing to do with the game - that was real life. he wasn't trying to get a read on me I don't think he was just trying to see if hts was being manipulative with rl, the answer is no (even if she flipped scum, that is just hts being hts honestly I cited examples of her doing this as town too) and aside that there were other reasons to scumread her
second quote, it was a misunderstanding. I was pinging trfel but my response came right after fidei's quote so fidei just assumed I was talking to him. but I think I can see why you came to that conclusion with those two sentences in the last quote.
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##vote Trfel
This vote could change but a lot of my previous reservations stand.
Hmmmmm DYH, I see what you are saying here, but same argument I bring as to the scumreads on me - you're looking at it from HTS's side. People cannot control what HTS does.
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1am, I'm out. I'm hoping to try and spend a little more time on this tomorrow.
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On December 07 2015 21:37 Fidei86 wrote:
Morning Rels. Yes I played a lot of dota with Dani over the weekend. Yes I sort of lost interest a bit in the game over the weekend. No I'm not Mafia. Yes I will catch up this evening.
Fidei was probably discussing Mafia strategy with HTS in dota land before she was lynched Saturday night. Typical dota players.
(that was a complete joke btw...I'm a League player so of course I will say this)
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Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments?
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On December 07 2015 22:41 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote:
Rels
Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel.
I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments? I really need to stop with the meta/tone reads, but this really feels like town Rels to me. Mafia Rels is tryhard Rels. Obviously lynching me because Palmar was struggling with my alignment and because I went afk is a pretty ehh reason to lynch me (especially as I was right from the start on HTS), so it sort of seems like he is dis-interested town more than anything.
Meh, I honestly thought Rels was town from merely reading his filter as I was catching up.
Anyhow, I think most people from what I realise tend to not play as much on the weekend because it's the weekend - regardless of the d2 lynch, I'm saying for games in general, I've noticed mafia games in general are slower on weekends.
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On December 07 2015 20:46 Fecalfeast wrote:
lol accidentally fallout until 3:45
what a good towny.
Who should I sheep?
I completely missed this post....I know this is how you played in the Newbie 17, but still.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
do us all a good favour and start making cases at some point when you were actually arsed to?
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ebwop - cases or conversational scumhunting, whatever you prefer
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also disformation re 1855 - Palmar I think said that LS's end of cycle 1 message about him being VT pretty much exonerated him. see the posts where I queued up both Damdred and Palmar's reads to aggregate where they both stood before they died and as they played.
right now, it's possible LS could be scum but based on the NKs I'm going to put him and DYH aside at this time, as scum and having been scum, you want to really eliminate the biggest threats. the only way this wouldn't apply is if you were universally townread, but that doesn't seem to be the case for any of my scumreads, so....
unless someone wants to make a non-meta based case on Fidei, the only point really sticking out at me is the soft pushing d1, and no offence James, but you know Dani and I well enough, if you DIDN'T sheep me I would have called you out on it, and if I recall right at no point in the game did you scumread me despite calling out my tone for being a "Jack Russell on meth" (lol?). So I really think that is not alignment indicative, you'd do it as town and you'd HAVE to do it as mafia.
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here's another related theory I had for palmar being shot folks, hear me out.
look I don't know the guy, but from the games I have read where dani has played I understand there is a pattern where some players know each other extremely well.
like I look at the database, palmar has shittonnes of games played.
does palmar know anyone here so well that he can ping them out well out of the blue even if he is not scumreading them now? is he known as someone who has late game heroics? who in this group might be threatened by him regardless of his reads at any point in the game?
I see trfel and ls have approx 18-20 games played, I think recalling, and we know palmar was townreading ls or buying into the modconfirmation thing (which means ls should have no reason to shoot him in theory), dyh about 15, so IDK, ff high 20s, the rest far less than this.
trfel is already being suspected by palmar, but thoughts on the rest?
I realise this is quite random but I'm just trying to see if he possibly could ferret out another long time player and maybe that person could have been feeling threatened by him or his knowledge of the game.
palmar was obviously taking a lazy way of solving the game so who here could have been getting scared of palmar once he decides to pull it together and solve?
any takers? 4th game on TL folks. since so many of you are throwing meta out 
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actually looking at the way Damdred played the game come to think of it, the same concept I just discussed regarding Palmar applies to him. Plenty of games on him. He had more focus and direction day 1 but night 1 he did dick all, not sure if he was playing with the intention of trying to not be shot or if he was legit busy.
so same question regarding Damdred anyone else (besides LS based on modconfirmation) with reason to dread him?
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need to step away for a bit. will return.
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On December 08 2015 01:58 Rels wrote:
I read fidei s filter and everybody should do that, then vote him.
He really is robotic in tone. I will check if that works as the case in his town games, but I see what Palmer meant.
His ls read seems fake. Around eod, "I would lynch him but I would rather lynch other people." After eod, "Rels and disfo are town if ls is town." Then "actually this confirmed town stuff doesn't convince me", when before eod he was not that convinced on ls to begin with. Now he's still pushing ls for ... I don't really know why.
His filter is focused on very few people. I think he's buddying me.
After Hts became the clear lynch, he didn't do anything. He was playing dota all weekend instead of being motivated to play.
Palmar s main target was fidei and he was the nk.
To everyone: please read his filter and report back.
I'm marking this for reference because I am looking at this post and there are a slew of things that are throwing me off. Not because I think this post looks scummy but because there is a lot of subjectivity in this read.
Tone reads are tone reads. I was taught prior to this game they are very subjective, and generally best for day 1 reads but as a strong meta read through this is day 3? it just seems weak without other evidence like voting analysis etc. or if you can tie the meta to something else. Like when he acts X, he does Y in conjunction with Z. Tie the tone to actions. Tie the tone to effects. Am I making sense?
Separate from that however, I will look into the LS read. The unflipped association is really bad but townies also make unflipped association all the time. I pushed LS because he was doing dick all and only such after the fact, and most critically, he failed to push HTS when he found her end of cycle questionable. We both agreed the LS filter was complete trash through the end of day 2, so if LS's game has gotten better (to be fair I stopped reading after the hts lynch) AND if Fidei is continuing to push the lynch, then it does look really bad. I guess it comes down to what work he's put in to get his conclusions. I am putting aside LS for now based on the NKs personally.
Back to James focusing on a few people, I can understand as a scum indicative, ignoring time (which can account for town not having the time), it can indicate an agenda. Because mafia need mislynches. I can get that. The same argument however can be made for DYH, but this last thing I looked at him, he doesn't seem to have a lot of time playing the game? Both were making in and out excuses, so only the NK analysis separates those two.
To use another example, FF was playing Fallout 4 all weekend. But NKs don't/didn't implicate him, so...
Also this term called buddying. I had recently shadowed marvellosity and I asked him a question about the difference between buddying and pocketing. And that they were both related.
I didn't understand it in the context you were using it, so I looked it up.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Buddying
Buddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright. Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place. More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent.
So I look at this definition Rels, and I am trying to think of a time where Fidei acts "unnaturally friendly" towards you. Lack of scepticism? He explained using meta why he's townreading you but are you saying it's bad meta to townread you or was there another quote that you using to say he's buddying you?
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EPT
