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Rels, I think that Palmar's hard push early on and then having no strong opinions at End of Day is very possible for him as town. His activity/investment level is really strange like that.
Here is a link to Palmar's filter from Gaiden 2 (town). He opened the game with a very strong push against (town) justanothertownie, which is similar to his push against The Shining this game. I'm pretty sure that his play died off really heavily after this push, he was nearly lynched Day 2.
I think that making a push like Palmar makes isn't necessarily hard as scum, but the way that Palmar does it is much hard to replicate as scum than a normal push. I've never seen Palmar push something aggressively Day 1 like that as mafia, so it's possible that he is mafia, however I feel he's probably town.
Also, for the record, I think I've thought of most of the things that Rels said about DoYouHas already and still kind of think that he's town.
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Meh, fine.
I'm a bit more suspicious of Palmar than I let on, and that thing about Fidei86 feels off. Palmar, explain?
But Rels...
Before you did anything, Palmar (if town) was always getting shot here. IMO you should have waited until EON to post this, it would have made life much easier if Palmar is town, which he still probably is IMO.
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On December 03 2015 23:27 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 15:45 Trfel wrote:
First, I didn't read all of Half the Sky's filter, but when I was reading through the thread I didn't think that her play around End of Day was anywhere near as bad as DoYouHas describes. Her read progression on LightningStrike there feels really natural and I actually like it a lot. I'd say that 8 minutes until End of Day is the point where I'd really expect her to start looking for another wagon, and although she doesn't do so, 8 minutes isn't a lot of time and she's sick. I'm guessing that a lot of that time was spent reading the thread trying to figure out what's happening, as the post rate was quite high at the time. I have not looked at the general trends in Half the Sky's filter recently, however when I last looked I didn't see too much wrong that couldn't be easily explained by the cold. And like I said, Half the Sky's read progression on LightningStrike felt towny to me. Can you update your HTS read when you have time to finish her filter ? I don't really care about Half the Sky because I'm pretty confident that she's town? And the cold/sickness/whatever makes it really hard for me to scumread her?
I think it makes more sense that she is town Half the Sky with her play slightly weakened by the cold than she is mafia and has shown the same desire to solve the game and direction that I would expect as town.
I'm pretty upset right now, just missed a meeting that I had to wait 3 weeks for because I'm an idiot. Going to use that to bury NocturneMage.
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Well, I finally finished the pre-game caveats to my case. Yay. This would have been so much easier if people listened the first time.
I could very well be wrong on DoYouHas, actually he really could be mafia. There isn't too much reason to townread him, however I don't think there is much reason to scumread him, either, and I generally prefer to give people like that more time and lynch people who I have more reason to scumread. For example, Rels brought up DoYouHas' read change on me (Trfel) earlier, saying that DoYouHas said that I was suspicious and a few minutes later said that I was crazy. The obvious flaw in this is that some people say that other people are crazy to mean that they are mafia because they don't make sense, even though lately this has been considered mafia indicative (it can be, but it's a wording thing and is very inconsistent).
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Eight pages of text (including quotes and code blocks) and I'm not really close to done yet. Yay.
I need to go to class now and I will finish later.
NocturneMage, I'm sorry that you had to replace in as mafia, and into a slot that was already confirmed mafia. There's nothing you can do, so you don't need to waste your time trying. I get that you want to play with Half the Sky, and you'll probably have a bit over 48 hours to do so, but my win condition is to lynch mafia and letting you live just because you're playing with Half the Sky can't happen.
One final note, to everyone else, if MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage is actually mafia (as I strongly believe) then Damdred looks really bad, and Palmar looks a bit worse as well, maybe Rels too. I realize that this is unflipped association, but I don't want it to be forgotten. It doesn't matter what they do from here, if they try to cover it up, if they try to bus to gain town credit for their flip.
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Rels, when you said that Student Mafia XV was MoosyDoosy's worst game, did you mean Student Mafia XVI?
MoosyDoosy wasn't lynched in Student Mafia XV, that game ended after the Day 1 lynch on Stoicism_.
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Why NocturneMage is Mafia
Warning: this case will probably be extremely long. I tried a short case with only the essentials, but no one believed me. So I am trying this instead.
Warning 2: this case will probably include a lot of meta. I did not want it to be that way. My first case included minimal meta. However, meta has been used to defend MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage, so I must first demonstrate why that meta defense is incorrect and then demonstrate why meta shows that NocturneMage is mafia.
Warning 3: as careful as I try to be, there's probably at least one typo/formatting error somewhere. And I'm not going to proofread this as I would be here all day. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask.
Note: I will be using MoosyDoosy's filters from the following three games to describe his town meta.
I have only read one of the three games mentioned (Newbie Student Mafia XVII). This means that some of the meta reads used may have flaws, however I do not think this is the case. It is noteworthy that in Newbie Student Mafia XVII (the latest game), MoosyDoosy said that meta reads on him do not apply because he's played so many games on another site and his meta has changed. Newbie Student Mafia XVII is very recent, is the game that I'm familiar with, and strongly supports my point, so this cannot hurt the strength of my read (and may help it).
Part 1: For those who say MoosyDoosy is unreadable
+ Show Spoiler +MoosyDoosy often plays very differently as town than most people do. And many people are not used to this. Saying that MoosyDoosy is unreadable as town is a very false statement, however. There have been other players in the past who have been sometimes considered "unreadable". Alakaslam and Chezinu are two examples of this, I might also consider LightningStrike (arguable). In truth, no one is unreadable. Everyone has tells on some level, reasoning that can be applied to their play on some level, because mafia knows that they are mafia and is trying to survive while town knows that they are town and is trying to catch scum/isn't playing to survive. In the past, people have demonstrated an acceptable ability to read Alakaslam, Chezinu, and LightningStrike. People have also demonstrated an ability to read MoosyDoosy, as shown by geript in Newbie Student Mafia XVII. Also, geript can be a very good player as town; this read on MoosyDoosy was not caused by luck. In this game, geript caught two of the three scum members with extreme confidence by the end of Night 1 (at least, pretty sure it was even earlier, but whatever). On November 18 2015 02:24 geript wrote:
Moosey 5.5/7--I think Moosy might be town. It's kinda impossible to tell, but I liked his Farah read. I don't think the read is good, but Moosy tends (as town) to be staunch on some really out there read that no one else sees. Yes, he does the same thing as scum. Yes, IMO he'll do anything he'd do as town as scum including acting like an ass. I don't have a super strong read on him that I can make a town case on him, but I feel about as strong about the read on him as I did in the last game (where I was tracker and was trying to decouple him and scumdred). The thing that really makes me think he's town isn't just his outburst around the Farah thing; more importantly it's how he comes back to it later on. The bounce back on was really, really towny I think. It's this, "I want to fuck people over and I don't want to fuck people over" dissonance that I don't think he can really fake as mafia. The read that geript used on MoosyDoosy here is somewhat specific to that game, however my point is that it can be done. It can't be approached the same way every game, but if you pay attention and look for things that you wouldn't look for from a more "normal" player, you can read MoosyDoosy on Day 1.
Part 2: Essential facts about MoosyDoosy's play (meta)
+ Show Spoiler +1. MoosyDoosy hates playing as town Don't think that this should need to be explained, but here we go anyway. On November 17 2015 11:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:Because I hate town. Next quesiton, yes. I am assuming that he is referring to hatred of playing town as opposed to hatred of the town in this game. On October 16 2015 20:48 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I guess...
/in
I swear if I roll VT again tho... On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... Ignoring the WIFOM in this post, it's pretty obvious that he hates playing town Day 1 and often will not do so. And hm, I think that's all of the meta that is required for this case to actually work. Which is great because it's adequately described in MoosyDoosy's pregame posts this very game.
Part 3: An example of a similar read to the one that will follow
+ Show Spoiler +For this, I turn to one of the very best. Ver. If you're not familiar with Ver, he's one of the best mafia players of all time. He (I believe) was one of the mafia players who played at the start of TL Mafia, and he won nearly every game he played. He doesn't play any more, but for the past while, every so often he's hosted a game where he didn't know anyone's alignments, and let the cohost handle all of the alignment-relevant hosting like flips, night actions, etc. Ver analyzed the game, and at the end of the game, he shared his thoughts and how he went about catching the scum team. I believe he caught or basically caught the scum team by the end of Day 2 at the latest, generally sooner. Point being, he's an extremely good player and knows what he's doing. The following is from Ver's analysis of Assassination Mafia. I played in this game, so I have a decent idea of what I'm talking about. 1. Ver's scumread of Bill Murray + Show Spoiler +In this game, Bill Murray was mafia. He started by nuking (basically an in-thread vigilante shot that hits at the end of the cycle) Trfel, and then nuking marvellosity (the latter being a fake nuke) for questionable reasons. He later started playing the game more seriously and many people thought he was town (some reasons being that he was too scummy to be scum, he was extremely crazy, randomly nuking was a bad play from mafia that wouldn't be beneficial, etc). Ver wrote:
Right now Bill Murray is relaxed, he is not double checking his posts and make sure his stance is consistent with a townie ideology; he messed up. If you notice Bill Murray’s posting improves greatly over time, enough that he even made quite a few people believe he was innocent and even get pardoned. Remember all you need to do as town is to find one post or context where they have an action/words that cannot come from a townie frame, and you found a mafia. You do not need them to keep posting!! Bill Murray looked innocent the more he posted but it was irrelevant because his early posts and actions made him mafia. Case Closed. Next. There's some additional reasoning to this scum read, but it's not important to the point I'm trying to make; feel free to read it for yourself, it's a great read. The bold emphasis is my own, this is the idea that I'm trying to get across: if there is a post that cannot come from a town mindset/perspective, it makes the poster mafia. Note that this is often unrelated to whether the post is objectively good or bad ("objectively good" play is explained reads, explained changes in reads, everything makes sense, etc... "objectively bad" play is the opposite, however these things are both not so helpful for catching mafia). Ver said this to further explain the scum read: Ver wrote:
[Written postgame] For the people who defended Bill or were uncertain of him being mafia, I think this happened because they were focusing on the wrong things, like the possibility of him being an insane townie. But the idea that crazy people are more likely to be town (because of lack of fear) is not a rule, it is a heuristic. Thus it can be wrong. In order to confirm your heuristic usage, you need to bring in other factors. The best pairing with the “he wouldn’t do something crazy as mafia” is the congruence heuristic. Are his actions/words aligned? Does he keep his story straight? Is he coming from the same base point each post?
If you apply that to Bill, it should be quite obvious he fails the test hard. Several people noted that his posts were all over the place and not consistent at all. Just because he’s trying doesn’t mean anything. Thus the “insane townie” heuristic gets overruled because congruence is more important. The best mafia cases all come from when multiple quality heuristics converge. Some are more accurate than others, and in such cases where they conflict you have to go with the most precise ones first. Those are generally congruence and “he can only do/post that from a mafia mindset.” Both those apply to Bill. Bill Murray's story didn't match for two reasons. 1. He nuked Trfel for having a small filter and low activity. Right after that, he something like "Wow, I should have nuked Palmar. Guy has even less activity than Trfel." Then, he later nuked marvellosity. First, this is bad play because he didn't consider all of his options before using his nuke and the reason he used his nuke is awful (play so bad that it's a bit scummy, but doesn't make him scum). Second, he was suspicious enough of Trfel to nuke him, then he said that Palmar was even worse. But didn't nuke Palmar. And nuked marvellosity later. If he actually had two nukes, why did he not nuke Palmar, if that was more than enough suspicion to justify a nuke? This again doesn't completely make him mafia IMO, there's an extremely small chance that Bill Murray would be town with two nukes and is willing to fire off one of them at random and actually cares to save the second for the best moment. He's very scummy, but not confirmed scum. 2. After firing two nukes and playing poorly/insanely for the reasons described above, Bill Murray calmed down, apologized, and then started playing seriously. His reads and play were actually "objectively good" as described before. However, this is what actually makes him 100% mafia. Town can play badly, town can nuke people at random. Town can also play well and try to solve the game to the best of their ability. But town can NOT play badly and use their role to shoot people at random, nonsensically, and then stop and try to play seriously and solve the game. These two things do not line up and cannot possibly come from the same person. The contradiction makes Bill Murray 100% mafia. One final note, while I didn't say quite what Ver said, it's in the same spirit: Ver wrote:
even if you ignore my evidence, other people like Marv Sandro and a couple I forget bring up quite accurately that his motivations/posts are inconsistent over the course of the day 2. Ver's scumread of marvellosity (excerpt) + Show Spoiler +Marvellosity was the last catch for Ver. Here's some of his scumread on marvellosity: Ver wrote:
In my reassessment [on marvellosity] with my focus more narrowed, I went over the day 1 nuke shenanigans and I noticed something strange: I automatically assumed BM’s first nuke was fake and second was real since a) he knows town has anti nukes b) that is just common sense, but what if it wasn’t?
trfel certainly reacted to BM’s nuke, and Marv reacted to BM’s nuke on trfel. But why did Marv not care a bit about BM’s nuke on him? That is a gaping hole that extremely likely indicates mafia. If you see something that makes no sense from a town mindset, then the person is probably mafia.
Part 4: Why MoosyDoosy's play shows that he was mafia (only the above meta)
+ Show Spoiler +1. Pregame, MoosyDoosy stated that he might not play Day 1 as town. He clearly showed that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. Once the game started, MoosyDoosy still said that he wouldn't be happy about rolling town. + Show Spoiler +On November 28 2015 04:33 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2015 01:42 Damdred wrote:Shining is guilt tripping me  .... Oh temptaition Join and I'll play D1. On November 29 2015 05:56 MoosyDoosy wrote:
/confirm
Looks like I have to play D1 now. :/ On November 30 2015 03:22 MoosyDoosy wrote:
pregame excuse: i said i'll play d1 but remember that i only play d1 as mafia but then again i like playing w/ damdred which might make me try but then i have bias towards damdred so if i'm town that's a negative spiral and btw if i do roll mafia idk if i'll actually play or not for mindgames but idk if i'll be able to muster the decision to play if i'm town but guys i've rolled town in every one of blazinghand's games so ofc i'll roll town but maybe this time it's time to break the chain... On December 01 2015 08:14 MoosyDoosy wrote:
niiiice, I didn't even check my role PM yet lol. I'm actually scared to. Scared to check role pm -> scared of rolling town 2. MoosyDoosy claims to check his role pm and says that he rolled town, and is upset about it + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:37 MoosyDoosy wrote:
i just checked my pm. i'm vt tournaent attendee asd;flkjasdf 3. Through the rest of the game, MoosyDoosy shows no complaints about rolling town at all, and is very happy + Show Spoiler +Here is MoosyDoosy's filter. To be complete, I should quote every post after he checks his role pm, but that's stupid. Here are a few posts that best describe my point. On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. This post was made three minutes after MoosyDoosy checked his role pm. Given how big of a deal he made over checking his role pm (took him 23 minutes between first mentioning it and checking his role pm), how much he hates playing town, and that he was upset when he claimed to have read his town role pm, he should still be upset three minutes later. Instead, he's happily talking about the game. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:
aight imma do this:
wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. In case there's any doubt, three minutes later. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 02 2015 09:07 MoosyDoosy wrote:whew i did too much work there. will be back after a rest.  His last post of Day 1. Very interesting, he did a bunch of work (as he claims) and is happy? Not expected from a person who hates playing town. This very strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. I cannot see these posts coming from the same perspective/mindset as MoosyDoosy showed pre-game and at the start of the game through reading his role pm, so the only option is that MoosyDoosy rolled mafia. 4. MoosyDoosy displays no desire to solve the game + Show Spoiler +I know, you're saying "but MoosyDoosy is useless as town, he never displays any desire to solve the game! This is NAI!" First, you're wrong. But second, remember this is the "minimal meta" section, and having no desire to solve the game is almost always mafia indicative. Here are all of MoosyDoosy's posts in the game that can possibly be seen as trying to solve the game. Being very nice here. + Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:40 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Rels speak more so i can soul read you as usual. On December 01 2015 08:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:
aight imma do this:
wait until rels speaks more. if he's mafia, we lynch him. if he's town, imma do the opposite of what he says as he gets everything wrong ofc. On December 01 2015 08:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I think I like you two fighting. :D Plzerino continue~~ On December 01 2015 12:42 MoosyDoosy wrote:
o/ Hi Shining. What was with the burst of emotion earlier? Ya feeling alright there buddy? On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 10:07 Trfel wrote:Life is so frustrating My communication skills appear to be miserable. I'll try to reread the thread later tonight. Damdred, apologies for using that type of read. Regardless of whether or not I am right, that creates stupid arguments and makes the game miserable. Thanks for being a bit more sensible than I am (regardless of alignment). Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. On December 01 2015 12:45 MoosyDoosy wrote:
hm...help me understand your Fidei read. Do you think the basis behind Fidei's reads are bad or the reads themselves? On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:
It's not the first time you've played with me, nor the first time I've reacted that way. Why is it interesting to you? Do you find it indicative in any way? What do you think of what I said about fidei, or what palmar said about me, or revel about damdred? I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? On December 01 2015 12:54 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I really want Rels to speak up. Rels bby speak~~ On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 13:01 Damdred wrote:
Hi ls
There are quite a few people who are giving me town feels currently. However I'll hold on to morning.
night i like this post because i feel the same way tbh On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
hey rels bb are you okay? You seem a bit too angry. :c Talk to me if you need to vent a bit. What's with your angry attitude m8? On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? On December 02 2015 09:06 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Can someone go back and list the twooo sides right now? I get the impression there's the Rels camp and the anti Rels camp or something like that. Anyone who makes that list for me is a bb. These kind of statements are always very subjective, but I personally feel that MoosyDoosy does nothing at all to move the game forward and shows no desire to solve the game at all. The posts about Rels are completely useless. Excluding those, and taking only the best of MoosyDoosy's comments, along with why they show no desire to solve the game: On December 01 2015 12:43 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 10:07 Trfel wrote:Life is so frustrating My communication skills appear to be miserable. I'll try to reread the thread later tonight. Damdred, apologies for using that type of read. Regardless of whether or not I am right, that creates stupid arguments and makes the game miserable. Thanks for being a bit more sensible than I am (regardless of alignment). Really? No one pointed this post out? hm...would like to see Palmar and Damdred's take on this. Criticizing this post is a perfectly valid thing to do. MoosyDoosy doesn't have any push, however. There is no followup on anything else about me (Trfel). He doesn't come to a conclusion about me, he basically just says "here, yours!" and throws it at Damdred and Palmar. Basically making suspicion and letting someone else do the work while waiting in the corner and watching. On December 01 2015 12:50 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:
It's not the first time you've played with me, nor the first time I've reacted that way. Why is it interesting to you? Do you find it indicative in any way? What do you think of what I said about fidei, or what palmar said about me, or revel about damdred? I find it interesting that you acted that way because A. I'm genuinely concerned for your mental state in Mafia as I know it's a high stress game. B. I do feel that you overreacted a bit with your sudden outburst and I disliked the way you try to use your meta to defend yourself. So. I just want to know your thoughts. What was the basis behind your Fidei read? Suddenly MoosyDoosy is talking about The Shining. Okay. No conclusion about this either. On December 01 2015 13:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 13:01 Damdred wrote:
Hi ls
There are quite a few people who are giving me town feels currently. However I'll hold on to morning.
night i like this post because i feel the same way tbh So he has a lot of townreads and doesn't want to say them. They haven't been mentioned at all yet. Okay... On December 02 2015 09:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The way to find out disformation's alignment is to shade a ton of suspicion on him and a ton of votes then see what he does afterwards. What does MoosyDoosy think about disformation's alignment? I assume that he thinks disformation is town because of the "lots of townreads" post and the fact that he doesn't actually do the advice that he suggests here, however why doesn't he say that disformation is town and/or why he thinks so? On December 02 2015 09:05 MoosyDoosy wrote:hey damdy, who you looking to kill tonight? He said that he liked Damdred's earlier post, here he suggests that Damdred is scum. Either this is a joke (and therefore not solving the game) or he's not caring to explain or investigate his read at all (not solving the game). It's not that MoosyDoosy is not being very useful, it's that even for having just a few posts that can actually be maybe seen as doing something, they're all focused on different people. There's no followup, no conclusions at all, nothing that requires thinking, nothing that seems to be solving the game. You can read his filter for yourself. This also extremely strongly suggests that MoosyDoosy is mafia. Again, most meta arguments will be addressed later. If you're looking for mafia motivation as well, it's fairly obvious (this point is not as strong as the other points, so I won't spend a lot of time on it, but mafia motivation is important so this is here in principle). MoosyDoosy didn't try to solve the game (mafia doesn't need to solve the game). MoosyDoosy's activity died down once it seemed like people weren't going to lynch him (mafia only posts to survive). MoosyDoosy relied on WIFOM and meta to survive instead of scumhunting.
Part 5: Why MoosyDoosy's meta suggests that he is mafia, not that he is town
+ Show Spoiler +I have previously explained why MoosyDoosy's play this game displays no desire to solve the game. Looking at three of his past games, the question is if he has a desire to solve the game as town. If he does, then MoosyDoosy is almost certainly mafia in this game; if he does not, then MoosyDoosy may be town in this game (the previous point about MoosyDoosy being scum for not trying to solve the game would be much weaker). Game 1: Newbie Student Mafia XVII+ Show Spoiler +For this game, I'll be taking only Day 1 quotes. Two reasons. First, MoosyDoosy only played Day 1 in the current game. Second, MoosyDoosy was nearly lynched on Day 1 in Newbie Student Mafia XVII, and his Day 2 play was much more involved and useful. On November 16 2015 15:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2015 15:50 ritoky wrote:On November 16 2015 15:46 MoosyDoosy wrote:On November 16 2015 15:42 ritoky wrote:
why does you playing on other sites render meta worthless exactly? I can give you links to games for reference if you desire, but my play has changed a ton than what it usually was. okay, with your new improved play; could you tell me who is mafia or town? It's not necessarily improved but: Farah disformation Shining geript This post came quite early in Day 1, later clarified to be his mafia list. Before this, MoosyDoosy voted for FarahBlackwing, and asked questions to disformation and The Shining. However, his reads are still almost entirely unexplained. I note that this post alone shows more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy's entire filter in this game. On November 17 2015 08:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2015 00:05 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I'm awake,
Anyway I probably will be mostly afk today so I'll try to be concise about my feelings.
1) I am super sure that Shining is town, based on meta and his posts give me a good feeling about them. They are pointed even if you disagree with what he is doing this is an excellent showing of his day one town play. Just a pity we won't see him again until wensday.
2) NocturneMage recent flurry of postings have giving me a good feeling, it felt like he was interacting with the thread as he was catching up instead of trying to be useless and lurking. He also instead of giving excuses is being proactive and trying to get thoughts out there. Good townlean, or at least not lynching today.
3) I'm not sure how people are so sure of VE so early? I probably don't get it because I never have played with him, but the town case on him seemed good and simplistic. So I suppose I will throw him into my town pile and then re-evaluate later.
4) I am not super confident in my eversince read, but I feel like she is town this game.
I also think ritoky is town, but i'm probably the least confident in this, and some of geripts postings have giving me good feelings but i'm not super sure about either. Posts like this make Farah Mafia. And NM is town. Instead of asking other people what they think about a post, he makes his own conclusion and pushes it. On November 17 2015 08:30 MoosyDoosy wrote:Yes I will explain. Farah is serious player and does not take gambits especially as noob as shown in previous game. This is extremely out of place. + Show Spoiler +On November 16 2015 05:04 FarahBlackwing wrote:
Hello. I think the proper use of our time is
##vote shining
Statistically it has to be time When people point it out and call bS on his "boring thread" excuse, he backs out of it immediately by saying he's "gathering reads" while whining at thread. + Show Spoiler +On November 16 2015 05:58 FarahBlackwing wrote:
##unvote
Ok I have my read now.
Why shouldn't I dos something earlto try to obtain any type of formative reads or understanding when everyone was just saying hi. Free town reads based on nothing. \o/ + Show Spoiler +On November 17 2015 00:05 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I'm awake,
Anyway I probably will be mostly afk today so I'll try to be concise about my feelings.
1) I am super sure that Shining is town, based on meta and his posts give me a good feeling about them. They are pointed even if you disagree with what he is doing this is an excellent showing of his day one town play. Just a pity we won't see him again until wensday.
2) NocturneMage recent flurry of postings have giving me a good feeling, it felt like he was interacting with the thread as he was catching up instead of trying to be useless and lurking. He also instead of giving excuses is being proactive and trying to get thoughts out there. Good townlean, or at least not lynching today.
3) I'm not sure how people are so sure of VE so early? I probably don't get it because I never have played with him, but the town case on him seemed good and simplistic. So I suppose I will throw him into my town pile and then re-evaluate later.
4) I am not super confident in my eversince read, but I feel like she is town this game.
I also think ritoky is town, but i'm probably the least confident in this, and some of geripts postings have giving me good feelings but i'm not super sure about either. And this post is very mechanical yes and has no emotion. Very much like Damdred yes. + Show Spoiler +On November 17 2015 08:23 FarahBlackwing wrote:
No Moos you are just an someone who refuses to play in any game I've signed up with you in. If you can't be assed to explain your one scum read to the thread when people are trying to evaluate you whats the point.
So frustrating On November 17 2015 08:41 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2015 08:38 Trfel wrote:
Someone please tell me if the meta MoosyDoosy applied to FarahBlackwing is true or not.
MoosyDoosy, did you see FarahBlackwing's explanation of her townread of The Shining (explained previously)? I liked that read a lot. Yes, that explanation was terrible. It was a wrongly applied meta read as there is differentiation between a**hole Shining and truly emotional Shining. It was free town read for no reason. She is Oprah of town reads. And saying that the read came from other people is excuse for read later on. This game clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is actually trying to solve the game and that he's invested in it. He's still martyring and still being obnoxious, but that doesn't stop him from pushing his reads and trying to solve the game. It's completely different from the play MoosyDoosy showed in this game. On November 17 2015 08:47 MoosyDoosy wrote:
shit I am becoming too invested into this game already. I will now go to prevent this. Goodbye and lynch me please. He acknowledge this himself. There are a bunch more quotes, you can see for yourself. I think that this is really obvious. Conclusion: MoosyDoosy was trying to solve the game. Game 2: Student Mafia XVI+ Show Spoiler +MoosyDoosy was lynched on Day 2 in this game. Therefore, I will attempt to separate his investment and desire to solve the game for Day 1 and Night 1-Day 2 to show the comparison to his filter this game and also the part that resulted in him getting lynched. On October 18 2015 06:15 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2015 06:14 boxerfred wrote:On October 18 2015 05:45 The Shining wrote:On October 18 2015 05:44 boxerfred wrote:
hey guys I'm here. Hi! Are you happy to be here? Actually no since I rolled VT just like I did in all of my last games ffs and I have moosy and gb spam up the thread although I said pregame that I'm on a limited schedule. actually no, I#m not happy. aight this post was pretty awkward tbh. On October 18 2015 06:16 MoosyDoosy wrote:
- Awkwardly inserts VT claim
- Pretends to be angry
- Pretense of answering a question. On October 18 2015 06:20 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2015 06:15 FarahBlackwing wrote:
I disagree he has no logical reasoning in that point in the thread to make that sort of joke at all, it came out of no where to a point.
He wasn't promoted and townies should have no reason to claim scum by accident or not. And by your own logic or lack thereof if no mafia would ever claim mafia in the thread then all people who do so would be instantly read town.
So only dumb mafia wouldn't take advantage of that. To be completely serious, I do like to generate a little discussion in games. So far what conclusions have I drawn? Well, one is that boxerfred's post just now is super awkward and I don't really like it. Another is that you are pretty probably town for coming in with a townie mindset and without addressing the possibility of what Mafia would do. So you are a town read and boxerfred is a scum read. The other dude is a town lean and GB is a null right now. All of these posts came in the first 1 hour 20 minutes of the game. And they already show way more desire to solve the game than MoosyDoosy showed this game. When questioned, he pushed his suspicion of boxerfred. On October 18 2015 06:25 MoosyDoosy wrote:Really? Read it again. He could have just answered that he was annoyed at the spam but he feels the need to give an excuse of having no time as well as claiming VT all in one. It's very awkward to cram it into one post hm...? Also, while I realize that he normally does have real life obligations, it is still something to note that he feels it is necessary to claim that he won't be posting much. Then there's a townread on Rels, and then he continues to push boxerfred. On October 19 2015 01:55 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Again, boxerfred is really weird.
In his opening post he crammed a VT claim, a complaint, and a scum read.
In his next post, he tries to place blame on me for posting gif's when I didn't. He even tries to scum read me for it which is lol-worthy.
Just scum reading me here is also super surface level because he's not looking into how I operate and more about my outwards appearance.
His attempt to say he knows my meta is terrible because he was only in the game where I was Mafia and he's not making any effort to check my others game where I literally do the same thing as I did in that game.
I mean...What is there to like?
- Awkward first opening
- Says I started gif wars when I didn't even participate
- Scum reads me for gif's which I didn't even post
- Applies appearance reads
- Makes no attempt to support his supposed “meta” read
##unvote
##vote boxerfred As far as Day 1 goes, MoosyDoosy is clearly invested and trying to solve the game. Huge contrast to the current game. From this point I will start looking to see what changed, and what resulted in him getting lynched (using only his filter). In general, on Day 1 it's clear that MoosyDoosy cares about the lynch. His filter is centered on his biggest suspect, boxerfred (discussing and pushing his read), but he's also discussing townreads and other suspects. He ended up sheeping other people for the Day 1 lynch, but it's obvious that he was invested in the game. He didn't yell and scream, but you can tell that he cared despite not voting for his biggest suspect. If you don't believe me, compare it to his play in this game; it's still night and day. MoosyDoosy's sheeping (seems like he had his own reasons to think it was a good lynch though) led him to lynch scott31337, and he flipped town. On October 20 2015 05:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
LoneMeow comes off looking gross from this but I don't know why he voted for scott and not Eversince in this situation unless they're scum buddies or if both scott and Eversince were town. On October 20 2015 05:03 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Or LoneMeow is town and really is clueless.
hm...Eversince, I'll have to hold you to your promise on participating in the following phases as you look really weird off of this. Still trying to solve the game. On October 20 2015 21:52 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I like the bf tunnel. I'd like to volunteer for D2 lynch willingly. I'm guessing that this is where people start wanting to lynch him... On October 22 2015 00:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Okay, I am back but had too much to catch up on so I just started from the night flip because that’s most interesting and did quick reads through filters.
Rels/sicklucker is a situation I don’t want to touch right now because it’s dumb and it’s NAI for both players. It’ll be a lot better to just find the other Mafia and figure out alignments from there. So taking them out of the surviving list, it’s this:
Vonthin
FarahBlackwing
Eversince
GlowingBear
boxerfred
FecalFeast
The Shining
- boxerfred is probably town for thinking that my shitty posts during N1 were good and giving me the credit for that when it came from someone else’s line of questioning (lol). He pulls reads out for some strange and/or misguided reasoning as town. So probs town.
- The Shining is acting like shitty Shining when he’s being tunneled. Although he should start posting more soon. But he’s probs town.
- Farah’s thoughts are logical and good. So he’s probs town.
If we take these people out, it leaves us with a pool of:
Vonthin
Eversince
GlowingBear
FecalFeast
- GlowingBear is hard to read, but his reaction to flip and afterwards shenanigans seems townie. But I’ll have to go check, so he’s a null.
- FecalFeast is hard to read until I look at him properly so he’s a null.
- Vonthin’s last posts is something I’ll have to look at. He was a scum lean before but I didn’t really look at his play since then so scum lean still.
- Eversince is reaaally different from her last game. In the last one she was obstinate and refused to listen to others and pursued her reads to no end. Seeing her here being waffly about her reads is not something that I normally see her do. So scum lean.
##Vote: Eversince Here's the post he makes after being gone for a while. He's definitely trying to solve the game. He ends up getting lynched, and to be honest I actually don't know why. His play didn't completely make sense, but that's not scum indicative and it seems really clear that he was trying to solve the game and was invested. Like, actually what the heck. I'm pretty sure that I was told that this was a game to look at to see one of MoosyDoosy's worst games? On October 23 2015 05:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
gg~~
was fairly obvious I'm town lmao. Without the context, I'm not sure if I can agree or disagree, but from MoosyDoosy's perspective this statement is 100% correct; he was trying to solve the game and putting in a lot of effort. Conclusion: this is extremely different from MoosyDoosy's play in this game. MoosyDoosy demonstrated a desire to solve the game throughout. Game 3: Student Mafia XV+ Show Spoiler +On October 11 2015 00:20 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Hi people.
I actually kind of agree with sentiment that we need a lot less spam so I'll work on it. I know I've been a problem in the past so hopefully I won't be terrible this game. It's quite a problem though as I've promised to post Part 2 of my analysis of Crime & Punishment but now I feel like I can't post it in this game. ):
Also, as a note, I realized that no emoji will show up if you do the reverse like I did above. It was actually pretty mind blowing when I found out as it works on a bunch of other sites and gets rid of the annoying little faces. Just a bit of a pet peeve.
Also, while I'm at it, I may as well state that I currently don't like either of ObviousOne or Stoicism_. ObviousOne for obvious reasons that he's giving excuses for not posting much and Stoicism_ for taking Obvious's sarcastic post a bit too personally. First post of the game has some actual reads. On October 11 2015 04:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
As a note, Eversince actively prodding at things that move this early in the game makes me think he's town. On October 11 2015 04:21 MoosyDoosy wrote:It's a tone read. Everyone else entered by saying they were town and going to do something useful with their time. Gumdrop comes in all Kumbaya-like and happy, then says he wants to catch scum but disappears. On October 11 2015 04:53 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2015 04:48 KelsierSC wrote:On October 11 2015 04:47 MoosyDoosy wrote:
kSC, Vivax, and Kels all look town for now. so town i'm town twice 0pps, kSC, Vivax, and Onegu*. Sorry bb ): You're important to me but not that important. Mixture of tone and other things. kSC for being right in that there was some unnecessarily serious reading into some posts, Vivax for behaving like a dick, and Onegu for good tone read earlier that was in line with my own thoughts. Already, he's shown much more desire to solve the game than he showed in the current game. They are completely different, there is really no comparison. On October 11 2015 10:57 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Before I leave here's a list on where I'm at right now:
Town:
Eversince
kSC
-Celestial-
Onegu
Fecalfeast
Null:
Vivax
marvellosity
sicklucker
Scum:
Gumdrop
ObviousOne
Stoicism_
Inactive:
Shining On October 12 2015 01:39 MoosyDoosy wrote:okie since Onegu is a bum and won’t entertain me, I guess I’ll have to just explain my thought process on ObviousOne. 1. On face value it just looks like I was questioning kSC on something rather simple. I actually had suspicions on ObviousOne at that point which is why I was asking kSC while also obtaining a read on kSC. And to let you know, being involved and actively answering my questions made me read him as town. Also because he’s hella h0t but that’s not the point. 2. Then there’s this weird read on me. + Show Spoiler +On October 11 2015 10:08 ObviousOne wrote:Just gonna pop through four filters in order on the list. Onegu: liking how comfortable he seems with the thread. Can possibly agree with gumdrop lynch but willing to extend benefit of the doubt regarding gumdrop to see what is said. Would not lynch. Gumdrop: waiting for the return of the jedi. Could lynch. Eversince: I understand the confusion with vivax she has. Vivax has seemed to finally switched off his troll mode from speed reading the thread. Thinking that Vivax was intentionally trying to disrupt things by saying nothing is natural for someone not familiar with him. Let's see where Vivax goes from here. Would not lynch. TheShining: AWOL Okay, I guess I'll do a few more this is easy. Kelsiersc: Sheeping Onegu on the gumdrop thing entirely. Gumdrop would definitely be a convenient target for scum in this scenario and sheeping keeps any potential backlash off KSC. Also the Moosy feel for his other scum read is basically a reply to my post regarding activity. Seems picked out at random and the post overall has very little conviction. Potential lynch candidate. Celestial: voting the AWOL guy. Has a big paragraph by my name that could have just said NAI. [association based on unflipped players ahead  has KSC, the other guy I find scummy, in his leaning town list. Potential lynch candidate. Fecal: unremarkable at this moment other than the obvious vivax stuff. Probably not a lynch candidate. Marv: being marv, not ready to say anything just yet. Sicklucker: seems pretty happy with himself and situation. Spouting off. I like it. Not a lynch candidate. Stoicism: seemed pretty interested in me, really wanted to interact with me but hasn't shown up since our little scuffle. Seemed like he was trying to have a conversation about nothing with me. Potential lynch candidate. Moosy: actually some good feels, though potential helpful-townie-scummer vibe but not really likely. Not a lynch candidate.So there you go. Scumreads: KSC/Celestial and one of stoic/shining/gumdrop. If I were to vote right now it would be KSC so I will do just that. ##vote KelsierSCOkay that's what I got. Gonna watch some TV now. You're welcome. On face value, my posts and filter look decent-ish because it seems like I’m participating. But in reality I’m not doing much and am actively lurking by only sharing easy thoughts and not acting on much. I was a bit surprised that others didn’t pick up on this. + Show Spoiler +-Celestial-, but there are other reasons to townread her, and sicklucker Only way he didn’t pick up on it is if he’s not carefully reading the thread. 3. Then there’s also the fact that he’s concentrating on lynching the people that have already scum read him so far. Also heightened by the fact that I didn’t actually post my scum read on him when he posted his long list post which is why he probably didn’t scum read me lol. 4. If you actually care to look at my filter, you can see my line of thought concerning ObviousOne is actually there so don’t say I’m jumping on popular wagons for no reason. He has a 10 page filter. I'm at page 4. He didn't get lynched this game. I don't need to read any more, he's already shown that he's trying to solve the game and it's completely different play from this game. Reading the two games that I hadn't read yet actually blew me away. MoosyDoosy's play as town in these three games is completely different from his play in this game that I am not even sure if I can describe it. He's making reads and is trying to solve the game in all three of the above games, even if he goes about it in his own MoosyDoosy way. I've already described how there is none of that in this game. It's not an activity thing, either. MoosyDoosy was fairly active Day 1 in this game, he just chose to do nothing of value. He made comments about three people, but never posted any conclusions at all (even conclusions without reasons). Compare this to Student Mafia XVI, where he had a strong scum read 1 hour and 20 minutes into the game. Meta clearly shows that MoosyDoosy is mafia in this game.
6. NocturneMage's play thus far
+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote:
yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow.
I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers.
reading from end of cycle, I'm pretty suspicious of trfel again (I say again because he was scum the last game) but that's mainly because of how he played last game. of course he'd push moosydoosy, he's unreadable as fuck as either alignment. same desperation emotions when no one is listening to him. unless he does this as town. cool story bro, try harder because I'm not scum. Okay, so he's busy. Fine. He hasn't read anything, but he's really suspicious of me. The tone is extremely dismissive, and how is he this convinced that I'm scum if he hasn't actually read anything? Looking at the reasons, he mentions: - Pushing MoosyDoosy, an unreadable target
- Desperate emotions
- I'm pushing NocturneMage (presumably I'm scum because he's town)
First reason isn't mafia indicative at all because pushing an unreadable target is actually more difficult. Furthermore, NocturneMage just saw me fill the thread pushing the hardest targets in the game last game as mafia, so he knows that as mafia I don't just push the easiest targets. This is not a reason to scumread me. He accuses me of being scum for something without checking it, and accuses me of being scum for being wrong. Last game as town, NocturneMage was very methodical and reasonable, which is very different from this post. Other people have expressed concerns with NocturneMage's play (the rest of his posts are fairly scummy as well). I won't re-quote them. But there are two more things I will mention. NocturneMage's entire series of posts showed extreme confidence and kept saying that scum should be scared of him. On December 03 2015 10:57 NocturneMage wrote:
yo, at work, on mobile, finishing work late tonight, need to go to bed right after though and I have seminars all damn day tomorrow.
I've not read dick all or followed the game for d1 quite yet, but I'm VT and I'm ready to fuck up some dirty dirty scummers. On December 03 2015 11:30 NocturneMage wrote:back to work, end of cycle gives me a good starting point as to where to go when I can really sink in. scummers, I'm coming for you. be scared. and daniele, if you are mafia, I love you to death and that will never change, but as far as this game is concerned, consider yourself fucked. if you are town, you better start working with me (and maybe our joint town reads?) and we can take down the mafia together. got it? good.  Here are two examples. This doesn't line up at all with two things from NocturneMage's posts. 1. He said he hasn't read anything and is really busy. Then he's not ready to catch scum, he's not coming for scum, not for a considerable amount of time, anyway. This doesn't match. As Fecalfeast said, he's putting on a show. 2. Look at all of the main points (with regards to reads) that he said. - Trfel is really scummy
- Will easily/instantly know if Half the Sky is mafia and will lynch her
- Says that if Half the Sky lynched someone who was scumreading her, she is mafia
- LightningStrike is town for his deadline post
- Palmar's posts look bad for lynching kushm4sta (since he thinks LightningStrike is town, why is it mafia indicative for Palmar to lynch town!kushm4sta over town!LightningStrike....
This isn't the filter of someone who is ready to catch scum. This is an uninformed filter of someone pushing things without having read, without having spent time to think carefully about it. This doesn't match with NocturneMage's earlier claim. Note that this point is not as strong because it depends on NocturneMage's perception of his own play, not what his own play actually is like. There is a chance that NocturneMage considers this play to be extremely effective scumhunting, though I don't think this is the case because NocturneMage was very reasonable and capable as town last game. The first point stands regardless, though.
In conclusion, NocturneMage is mafia. This is primarily shown through MoosyDoosy's play, as his play has seemingly conflicting mindsets that can only be explained by him being mafia, and he clearly did not try to solve the game. Furthermore, using meta makes the scumread of MoosyDoosy significantly stronger, as opposed to weakening it. NocturneMage's play is also very suspicious on its own, with an important mindset contradiction.
I apologize that this post is so long (~19 pages of text, including quotes and code). I have already provided the essential version of this case, which is complete by itself. This explanation appears to be required for people to understand the case. Reading the entire case is not required, only the parts in question. But the conclusion is undeniable.
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Oh, I forgot to address Damdred's argument that MoosyDoosy enjoys playing in the game if Damdred is in the game.
MoosyDoosy says pre-game that he may not play Day 1 even though Damdred is in the game. MoosyDoosy also shows that he's upset when he rolls town. If MoosyDoosy is town, he wouldn't lie about being upset to roll town. Then he is never upset ever again in the game, which contradicts the earlier portion, regardless of Damdred's presence and its affect on his town play. Furthermore, MoosyDoosy doesn't actually play at all on Day 1. It's assumed that MoosyDoosy would be happy playing on Day 1 with Damdred, or not happy and not playing. These are the two town options. Happy and not playing is not an option.
Like, that's a poorly worded explanation. If you have any questions, let me know.
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I don't understand.
This is basically a 99.9% scumread with extremely few possible holes, if any.
I've explained it in basically as much detail as possible and explained why all of the counterarguments are wrong.
Why does no one care?!?!
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On December 04 2015 05:08 Damdred wrote:
I haven't read any of the game since I went to bed, I'm universally town read ya? Then I'll catch up after night post unless I'm scum read I guess. No, you're scum read by me.
I've asked you probably more than 5 questions (that I would consider important) that you never answered. Right now I only really really really care about one.
Why did you scumread LightningStrike in this game? It seems to me that you scumread him primarily for having no scumreads. Looking at a past game where we both played together with LightningStrike (all of us town), I scumread LightningStrike for having no scumreads and you told me that that is not how to read LightningStrike.
I'm wondering what the differences are/where your scumread came from.
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@disformation (not going to quote it because that was a long post:
I disagree with the readability of someone depending on what they actually do. I feel that as long as someone gets to like a page and a half or two pages of posts, you have enough information to get a fair shot at reading them. It doesn't matter what those posts are. Even if it's just a single period in every single post, I think it's reasonable to analyze the timing and frequency of those posts to figure out the alignment. Unless they're actually paying no attention to the game at all. Even scrolling down to the posting box would make them a bit more readable.
But anyway, since you probably won't agree with my example, it's not always about what someone does. It's about what someone doesn't do. In this case, MoosyDoosy wasn't under suspicion and he did zero scumhunting. Judging by the three MoosyDoosy games I looked at (I asked for MoosyDoosy's worst town game and that was one of the games I analyzed), MoosyDoosy always does some useful things as town. It's the lack of those posts that is important, you don't need those posts to read him.
Also, you're assuming that I can't have good reads too. Which isn't a very smart assumption, you should look at my play before you discount that possibility.
Part 4 is a direct application of the same read methods that were used in Part 3. Part 3 says nothing about MoosyDoosy, it's basically a guide to scumhunting. Part 4 uses that guide. Just like Bill Murray's play came from two mindsets (nuking people was not caring/insane, then tried to solve the game seriously) and that made him mafia, MoosyDoosy's play came from two mindsets (angry to be town, then happily posting away) and that makes him mafia.
Not showing any desire to solve the game is not a direct application of the method outlined in Part 3, however I think that the reasons why this almost always comes from scum are obvious. Part 5 actually says nothing by itself about MoosyDoosy in this game, it just shows that one potential flaw with the second part of Part 4 is not correct.
Both of these two arguments individually are extremely strong. It's when you put them together, use the meta to show that it's correct, and then look at NocturneMage's play that you have a bunch of different reasons all pointing to the same thing that you really know it's right.
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On December 04 2015 05:37 Damdred wrote:
Like I said I'm not going to have time to read up before deadline.
I have the reasons I scummed ls in my filter several times.
You so silly though disform.
Also trfel since you are trying to be better at the game, you are using incomplete meta to try to prove someone is scum... While I applaud your tenacity show me something tangible ie actions from this game that are scum motivated. I'm saying that those reasons are bad. I'm saying that because the reasons are bad, this makes you mafia. I'm saying that I know that the reasons are mafia-bad instead of town-bad because of this post. Believe me, I've looked at the reasons you scumread Damdred in this game. Just show me why I can't apply the post from the other game to your read in this game.
I've shown actions from this game for both MoosyDoosy and NocturneMage and why their actions are mafia motivated. I clearly explained why it is mafia motivated at the bottom of Part 4 and somewhere in Part 6, in addition to the explanations for why it can't come from town. As I already stated, the meta is NOT a reason to scumread MoosyDoosy, it's simply a reason to remove some doubt from the scumread. Your statements are very incorrect.
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Damdred
I'm short on time and I don't know exactly what I'm going to say when I start this post. This will probably end up being one of those evil "narratives".
First post
+ Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:27 Damdred wrote:
Well hello there strangers.
My name is Damdred and we need a clear direction in this thread, I am the hero that you guys have and need. This is the plan, we each are responsible for our own reads but also communicating them to the thread.
Firstly for the roles, nobody should talk about this besides an opinion going forward, if you are a named towny you should claim asap, it narrows down the pool that we lynch from and also gives us more to work with. however if you are the Vet do not claim unless absolutely necessary. If you are shot claim if you aren't shut the hell up. After you use your power claim straight away your findings if you are one shot obviously do not pussy foot away and give mafia the ability to cause town to second guess you. As such thank you for your time in reading this.
Secondly I am going to try to keep my posts as concise as possible but with as much read information in it as I can, I will attempt to update the thread every 10-15 posts with where I have people and will be able to answer why they are there, I implore each of you to make as many reads as you can and when questioned do not freak out.
Anyway lets have us a good game.
Super Town:
Damdred
This post is mafia motivated because there is no scumhunting or thread progression at all in the post. Setup discussion is generally useless, as is telling everyone how you are going to play. I am pretty sure that Damdred actually didn't follow through with how he said he would play (concise, dense posts with an update every 10-15 posts).
It's also mafia motivated because of what isn't there. There were several posts in the thread by the time that Damdred posted, including MoosyDoosy saying that he hadn't read his role PM and me (Trfel) voting for MoosyDoosy. He didn't want to talk or get involved in the discussion at all, even to make really weak start-of-game reads. This feels primarily motivated by wanting to look good to the thread.
Damdred's initial suspicion of me (Trfel)
+ Show Spoiler +On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting...
As I explained previously, LightningStrike's pregame post about his activity has no relevance on my alignment whatsoever. The fact that Damdred specifically mentioned the pregame post as a reason for me being mafia suggests that he's focused on looking good for remembering something pregame and using that pregame post as a point of leverage to scumread me, instead of actually finding mafia.
Response to my first case on him
+ Show Spoiler +I give a really long case: On December 01 2015 09:16 Trfel wrote:DamdredI need to go do some stuff, so I should explain this now instead of hoping someone else sees it. Required knowledge: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 06:06 LightningStrike wrote:
oh another pre game excuse: I wont be here until like 4 hours after game start due to college class into going out to eat with my parents :o 44 minutes after the start of the game (by deadline time, not actual start, thanks Blazinghand), I posted this: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while. Damdred questioned me (Trfel) with this post: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later. Interesting... I pressured him, and he responded here: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 08:54 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:50 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2015 08:47 Damdred wrote:On December 01 2015 08:44 Trfel wrote:
Hm, LightningStrike hasn't posted at all yet. Very suspicious, I would have expected him to be really excited for this game since he hasn't played in a while.
Disformation, why are you only bringing up Damdred's post now, and not right when he posted it? Trfel might be mafia since LS clearly posted in the thread why he wouldn't be here till later.Interesting... Okay, what the heck. First of all, if you think about it for a second, you can probably see what I was trying to do. You may not agree with my method, but you know me well enough to see it. Second, why would does this make me mafia in any way? Like, why does the fact that LightningStrike posted that he wouldn't be here at the start of the game have any bearing on my alignment? I do know what you are trying to do, and if you are fishing you might want to try a different type of bait. Secondly could be you don't care about reading the thread, and just trying to find someone to put suspicions on. The key phrases are in bold. Basically, Damdred initially was suspicious of me (Trfel) for not reading the thread and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. And in his initial post with these suspicious, he specifically stated that these suspicions of me are only valid because of LightningStrike's pre-game excuse. LightningStrike's pre-game excuse has no implication on my alignment whatsoever. Damdred is basically saying that because my suspicion of LightningStrike was invalid, I was suspicious. However, why would I as mafia make a post about a player's inactivity when that player said, before the game, that they wouldn't be around at the start of the game? There is zero reason for mafia to do this. The only thing that LightningStrike's pre-game excuse says about my play is that my reason to be suspicious of LightningStrike was invalid. First, it was invalid without the pre-game excuse as well. And second, my argument being invalid doesn't have any relevance on my alignment. As does reading posts in the thread that were made before the game started. Damdred failed to address the main question that I asked, which was why LightningStrike's pre-game excuse affects my alignment. His suspicion of me made zero sense, and Damdred is a very sensible player as town. Combine this with his entrance post, completely ignoring everyone else in the thread and saying that his play would follow his (rough) scum meta of fewer posts more focused on analysis. He responds as follows: On December 01 2015 09:16 Damdred wrote:
Ummmm....
Your so dumb trfel that's not my scum meta at all. Completely ignoring 95% of the things that I said.
This is mafia motivated because instead of actually addressing my arguments (he thinks that I'm town), he dismissed one point that's very subjective and difficult to argue about. Basically, he's ignoring the arguments that he can't do anything about, because he can't do anything about them, and only focusing on the one that he can. I would be okay if he had simply said "the rest of your arguments are true but that doesn't make me mafia", but he just said "you're dumb" and ignored most of my comments (this is what it says to do in the mafia guide, this is what I did to geript and NocturneMage last game as mafia when they raised good arguments against me). If you believe that someone is town and scumreading you for stupid reasons, it's ALWAYS beneficial to town to try to explain why they are wrong, both to increase your credibility and to let them catch actual scum.
Damdred's townread on The Shining
+ Show Spoiler +(excerpt) On December 01 2015 09:46 Damdred wrote:
3) His attack on Palmar I think is genuinely town indicative.
- Palmar is a hard target even for top townies, and while I think that shining is a good player as scum he generally attacks lower activity players, which fid could be an example of this. But his somewhat BM towards Palmar and his continued attack shows a clear lack of caring if he lives or dies. Which in shinings case actually is indicative of him being town.
This point is very flawed, as Palmar mentioned. The Shining didn't know that Palmar would be a hard target when he initially scumread him, because Palmar was giving scumreads with no explanation; generally that's a very easy target. Damdred clearly didn't think this through, and it seems like he might not have actually been trying to figure out The Shining's alignment.
Damdred avoided working with me and answering my questions
+ Show Spoiler +I'm not going to provide every example because it would take all day. I made a read, and Damdred responded as follows: On December 02 2015 02:28 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. this is bad and you should know why On December 02 2015 02:33 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 02:28 Damdred wrote:On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. this is bad and you should know why I think it's great. Please explain? I respond with this post. No scumread, no suspicion, just trying to figure something out. Again, he's townreading me at this point. Damdred completely ignores me, and only (probably accidentally) answers the question when Half the Sky mentions my post. On December 02 2015 04:00 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 03:53 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 02:28 Damdred wrote:On December 02 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I realized that DoYouHas' activity fits a mafia motivation fairly strongly, assuming that Damdred is town. And still fits somewhat if Damdred is mafia. this is bad and you should know why I took a hard look at DYH's filter again, obviously you aren't talking about the progression on yourself, but where you are drawing a contrast between say, his activity and, say, kushm4sta's? (LS and Shining have had obvious RL excuses, so I'll leave them out.) that's a good thought and glad someone picked up on it. There are several people who are fitting into the same activity patterns so not sure why it would necessarily make x mafia over y. However there is another bad part to it and that's u flipped association which isn't as important. Damdred made several posts in between when I asked the question and when he finally discussed it again.
As previously explained, not talking about things with a townread is very harmful for town. However, talking about it only with someone else is intentionally malicious. It's possible that he just missed it, but there are a LOT of examples in the game. This is just the worst one.
LightningStrike read
+ Show Spoiler +I'm going to use red for all of the times he scumreads LightningStrike for having no scumreads (or something very similar) On December 02 2015 09:36 Damdred wrote:
Disinformation
Eels
Damdred
Shining
Palmar
Leans
Trfel
Fid (falling)
Ls
Honestly it's notso bad so far even though I've read 0 filters. On December 03 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote:
I'm not so sure moosey is mafia.
I've given other reads
however I think that LS is mafia and I should be sheeped on this. (this post less than two hours before the lynch, this is an entrance post) On December 03 2015 06:13 Damdred wrote:
Sure LS usually even if he is wrong is a strongish prescense in the thread giving his opinion and trying to get people to interact with him while he gives scum reads.
He lacks real reads in the thread, the few he has given have been little substance. The one scum read I can tell in his filter was Trfel that he has totally backed off of. He isn't looking to push anyone he is just existing.
On December 03 2015 06:38 Damdred wrote:
Honestly Palmar I feel pretty strongly about LS I know its a bit of work, but just do me this favor and look at him its 2 pages of filter if that.
He has 0 scum reads, he town reads people for little reason showing no fear of me or you who he generally has a great deal of respect/fear for our scum games.
Has absolutely no scum reads, has no positions in the thread.
Just see if i'm right/wrong and tell me and then if you think i'm so dead wrong we can talk about maybe lynching kush/onegu On December 03 2015 07:01 Damdred wrote:
Let me juts simply state why LS is scum so people will go yep sheep the damdred.
1) Little to no reads
2) No scum hunting
3) Not really involved in the thread as it goes forward, really side lined
4) Has no scum reads at all even states as much
5) His trfel progression is very strange
Good lynch indeed On December 03 2015 07:57 Damdred wrote:
If you flip VT like you claim LS you only have yourself to blame, you posted no real reads didn't hunt scum now you aren't even trying to be helpful to the thread.
I'm willing to move to Kush or DY if we have the people though as I don't like there switch This post basically says "LightningStrike is bad and I'm willing to lynch someone else" while implying that LightningStrike is mafia the entire time. On December 04 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote:
My axum read is in my filter, if it was so bad at the time why did people hop on?
if the only reason that I posted was ls had no scum reads I could understand it but that's a gross misrepresentation of the points against ls.
Also lol to me and moosey on a team together, damdred the scum partner who will get himself scum read to save his team mates. That's the reputation I have boys I address the first point of this post right here. Last game, as mafia, I made a case on scott31337 last game and got him lynched instead of my scum partner Breshke. Just because everyone followed me does NOT justify it, you have to look back at the reasons and determine the motivation, which is what I've done and what Damdred isn't actually answering.
Okay, so here I'll name every point that Damdred raised against LightningStrike.
- Doesn't have a strong thread presence (and normally does as town)
- Isn't trying to get people to interact when he posts scum reads (and normally does as town)
- No scum reads
- Easy town reads, no fear (specifically says that townreads on Damdred and Palmar usually aren't given by LightningStrike as town)
- Not pushing anyone, just existing (staying on the sidelines)
- No scum hunting
First, the "no scum reads" point is the point that Damdred made with by far the greatest frequency. Twice, he even said that point twice in the same post. He's clearly taking that point quite seriously.On December 04 2015 06:09 Damdred wrote:
My axum read is in my filter, if it was so bad at the time why did people hop on?
if the only reason that I posted was ls had no scum reads I could understand it but that's a gross misrepresentation of the points against ls.
Also lol to me and moosey on a team together, damdred the scum partner who will get himself scum read to save his team mates. That's the reputation I have boys Hm, interesting. His continued dismissal of my question is also interesting, because if you read the initial post where I asked it and the game I referenced, my case on LightningStrike in that game said many of the same things that Damdred said in this game. Here is the post where I explained this. And below is a list of the points I raised against LightningStrike in that past game.
- No scumreads
- Not changing the thread activity/not involved
- Not pressuring anyone
Dismissing these points from Damdred's case (or at least things that are extremely similar, and yes I realize that everything is kind of related...), I see two points remaining:
- Easy town reads
- No scum hunting
First one is a standard of LightningStrike's play (as both alignments). He became known for those huge posts with a bunch of reads that were all town or null, with no scum reads at all. To do that, he obviously made a lot of really easy town reads.
Second one is a very bold claim that isn't supported by any evidence that Damdred provided (no scum reads and no scum hunting are very, very different things). Looking through LightningStrike's filter for evidence of scumhunting.
+ Show Spoiler +Again, LightningStrike's suspicion of me felt very genuine. On December 01 2015 12:18 LightningStrike wrote:Hi guys I had just got home and read and Tfrel tried to snipe me when I was gone even though in the pregame I EVEN TOLD EVERYONE I WAS GOING TO BE GONE TILL NOW -_- Here the quote for proof: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 06:06 LightningStrike wrote:
oh another pre game excuse: I wont be here until like 4 hours after game start due to college class into going out to eat with my parents :o Anyways Tfrel seems like a scumlean for now for trying to snipe me and tried to case Damdred when Damdred caught tfrel on the fact that I told everyone I wasn't going to be here till now. Palmar seems town for now he actually being serious although I don't think Shining is really scum yet but he fooled me till later in my last game when he was scum. I also liking Damdred this game for his responses and actually trying to hunt scum. I need more time on MD because his play style is so weird my experience playing with him and hosting/cohosting games involving him. DYH seems townlean he actually tried to comment on stuff that is relevant to the game. @kush: If you are here what you think of Shining vs Palmar? @Palmar: Okay if Shining is town then who is mafia and why? Also some Christmas pictures for Palmar because I know he's a huge sucker for Christmas: ![[image loading]](http://soclday.com/p/2015/10/images-of-christmas-xaqo9t5w.jpg) On December 01 2015 12:52 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 12:47 The Shining wrote:
It's not the first time you've played with me, nor the first time I've reacted that way. Why is it interesting to you? Do you find it indicative in any way? What do you think of what I said about fidei, or what palmar said about me, or revel about damdred? I was just trying to see if your thoughts had changed since you cooled off. Anyways I think Palmar is town he did this very similarly how he did when I first played with him in Metal Mini when I was town vs his town. Damdred is town like I said earlier I liked his responses since it's a Damdred thought. James is null atm because he went straight to bed afterwards. Also Hi Damdred how are you? Meta reads with a specific game mention I think are a bit more common from LightningStrike's town play than mafia play. On December 01 2015 20:02 LightningStrike wrote:Hi I just woke up and I am feeling tired still because I obviously only got like 7 hours of sleep so if I sound tired based on my posts that's why but some people had some comments/questions towards me: Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 18:16 Trfel wrote:LightningStrike:On December 01 2015 12:18 LightningStrike wrote:
DYH seems townlean he actually tried to comment on stuff that is relevant to the game. Specifically, what comments did he make that were relevant to the game, and why do they make him town? Damdred: (and PLEASE, no one else answer this, don't be stupid...):I'm sorry, I know you don't want to talk about this, but it's driving me insane. Hypothetical scenario 1: Trfel makes a post an hour into a mafia game casting suspicions on Joe for not having posted. Hypothetical scenario 2: Trfel makes a post an hour into a mafia game casting suspicions on Bob for not having posted. Bob said before the game that he would not be present for the first few hours of the game. What difference do you see between these two scenarios?
Palmar seems like obvious town. There's one thing I hope to check eventually, though. I kind of want to lynch The Shining, but that seems like a very bad idea right now. He's put in a bunch of effort (regardless of alignment) on a busy day for him. Most of the problems that I have with his posts are wording, tone, and a bit of consistency, which aren't the most reliable. I do feel that his posting somewhat fits mafia motivation, but I'm nowhere near confident enough to be happy lynching him now. I feel that The Shining's alignment will become very clear with a bit more time. I still think that Damdred is mafia, but I remembered that the past several times I've played with Damdred (both town) I've always thought he was mafia I'm guessing that I have some preconceived notions for what I expect Damdred to do, and whenever he doesn't behave exactly as I would expect him to, I think he's mafia. And it seems to be very hard for me to separate this from mafia motivations... Did anyone else find Damdred's townread of The Shining a bit off? Palmar commented on why the third point is invalid, which I completely agree with. He wasn't really afraid to post his thoughts on the stuff when he was around and I know it's limited content but still when he was around he did try to be involved a little bit. I might be a huge sucker for people. Show nested quote +On December 01 2015 18:42 Fidei86 wrote:
Morning folks.
So I have two competing thoughts about Shining. The first is that I entirely agree with Palmar about why Shining's play makes no sense. I'd also add that it's even more strange that his 'read' on me seemed almost entirely OMGUS, but then as soon as HTS made a point against me in her thread entry, he adopted it and parroted it as the new reason he didn't like me. The second is that he and Palmar seem very invested in this fight - much more so than seems warranted by the early stage of the game. They have been back and forth, what, five or six times now? Almost to the exclusion of everyone else. The 'better' play as town is plainly to apologise for bad thread entry (which Shining did, admittedly, do) and then to turn attention elsewhere (which neither Palmar or Shining have done). The only thing I have to say in Shining's defence is that his rebuttal's read very heartfelt. That can be something that is hard to replicate as mafia, and it's giving me pause here. I would say Shining is a very slight scum read for me, but I wouldn't vote for him as yet.
Also - morning Rels. Re my read on you - I've watched you play enough games as mafia now to think I have a reasonable handle on your meta. Yes, you are totally capable of breaking your meta, but your "I give no fucks" tone and posting content is town Rels to me.
Lightning Strike's entrance seems way over the top to me, especially for him. Usually he comes in and posts some relatively anodyne 1-liners, whereas here he came in with a big long paragraph attacking someone (Trfel I think) for calling him out earlier. In my experience, town LS is much more relaxed and jokey, until he starts getting attacked seriously (which I don't think had happened by that point). Then again, LS is primo lynch-bait D1, so I'll try and avoid getting too tunnelled for now.
My one heretical thought at the moment is that Dani might be mafia. I know, I know. It's more of a hunch than a real read, but I'm just not feeling it from her posts so far. Town Dani that I've known usually goes in one direction, then another, and she has an almost relentless quality. Too many of her posts last night were backtracking on things she had already said, and it's not clear she reached anything much of a landing point. It could be because it's early and because she's tired though.
Moosy is posting the same kind of rubbish that he posted in our first Newbie game together. In that game he was new and was inadvertently trying some sort of Chezinu--style baits. Which, in fairness, worked. Then when he was mafia and I was town, he was super super serious all game. Obviously if he doesn't contribute further then at some point we will have to lynch him for being useless / lynch all lurkers, but for now I give him a slight town read. I had posted paragraphs as town before when I wasn't there at the start of the day for a entry post(see slytherin) but about attacking Trfel: it seemed like he wants to try and find a reason to scum read me even though I had said in the pregame that I wouldn't be around till like 4 hours after start of the game. Just a little bit frustrated from that and I glad Damdred called him out on it too. Again, I really like this post about DoYouHas. I don't agree with the reasoning that LightningStrike used here, but it was something very different from what I expected. This suggests that LightningStrike is actually thinking about things and trying to solve the game, just in a very different way than I am. Given how LightningStrike's stance at the time was contrary to about 80% of the things that DoYouHas had said, this read feels like it wouldn't come from scum and shows thought. On December 02 2015 01:11 LightningStrike wrote:
Just got to college campus and took care of stuff and about Palmar: It's meta read that I have on him because he did similar stuff to me in Metal Mini which you observed and I do find Shining town for now although he did show huge emotions as scum last game but I giving him a benefit of a doubt. Mainly Shining's content seems better ths game than his last game when he was scum vs me. On December 02 2015 07:32 LightningStrike wrote:Back from class after some relaxation. Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 07:18 Rels wrote:
LS: if you had to name a team of 3 mafias, who would that be and why ? Idk yet this game is getting a little hard. I wish that Onegu and Kush actually do stuff so I can flesh them out in terms of alignment. Otherwise after considering that he did his thing on me as a trap(if I reading this correctly) Tfrel moved to null for now but still it was kind of a weird thing to do for him. Idk why people having trouble with DYS? I see him more of a newbie player than a veteran player honestly so(shrugs). So nothing yet for a team. Openly admitting that he has no scum reads is generally slightly town, from my experience. But LightningStrike provides what he intends to do going forward and shares his thoughts. On December 03 2015 00:21 LightningStrike wrote:Well I am now full awake after some time(Mountain Dew FTW for Caffeine). Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels. Palmar and Damdred are certainly Town. Palmar like I said his seriousness and his behavior towards Shining earlier was pretty much what he did when I played with him in Metal Mini when he showed similar behavior towards me. Damdred is actually full tryhard mode plus he actually trying to steer the direction of the town a few times. Rels I would like to call him town but his town game is so similar to his scum game as I been fooled by him in my last games I had played before taking a break -_- Look, it's a "fear read" on Rels! Isn't the lack of these a reason that Damdred called LightningStrike mafia? Plus, LightningStrike is actually explaining his townreads on Palmar and Damdred (the two people that Damdred specifically mentioned), and Damdred thinks that both of them are really obvious townreads this game. This basically invalidates the other point that Damdred was making again, as well as showing scumhunting. On December 03 2015 03:16 LightningStrike wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 03:13 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:04 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 02:58 Trfel wrote:On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? read her filter if you want to see her progression on me  + Show Spoiler + And where did you get that conclusion from? On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote:Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted. On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote:
Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason. I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him. Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him. Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though. Yeah.... "I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. It's implied I thought O_o(At least how I read it and I hope she gets better soon honestly) Also for note you played a shit ton of games with me when I'm town and I surprised you kinda forgot how I play To me, "for note" means "I'm going to save this for later because I think it's important (aka suspicious)". This is scumhunting and this makes a lot of sense for LightningStrike to say. This is everything pre-scumread.
Summarizing all of this to "no scum hunting" without any explanation is a very, very large jump. Again, it's not what you think that someone is doing, but what they think they are doing. This is how LightningStrike scum hunts, read any of his town games. I tried to concisely demonstrate this by showing that Damdred doesn't scumread LightningStrike for similar play (aka no scum reads, no thread presence). I actually didn't think that anyone ever described LightningStrike as being a high thread presence player as town, so that's a very strange comment from Damded as well.
Basically, it seems to me like Damdred's LightningStrike read came out of nowhere, with reasons that make no sense at all and Damdred definitely knew that they didn't make sense. And Damdred was clearly more interested in pushing the LightningStrike read than actually figuring out LightningStrike's alignment (shown by him saying the same point multiple times and making such a big deal out of the irrelevant point).
Conclusion
Damdred is likely to be mafia, ignoring MoosyDoosy/NocturneMage's alignment. Alone, these points aren't the strongest, but they all say the same thing.
These reasons aren't entirely explained, and I have a few more reasons that I don't think are easy to explain (that are probably stronger... the difficult to explain ones tend to be better). Any questions, feel free to ask.
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On December 04 2015 06:53 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 08:10 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 08:08 Damdred wrote:
LS has basically mod confirmed himself as town.
That's pretty shitty but we have to work with it I guess. Everything about his play says town except for the thing that I quoted. I actually think that the thing that I quoted is extremely scummy, such that he can't be town. Do you think otherwise, and if so can you please explain it to me so that I can be comfortable with my LightningStrike townread? Also, NocturneMage, I apologize for you having replaced into a mafia slot. At least I have a fair opportunity for revenge. Trfel you were convinced LS was scum, urged people not to shift off him, weren't convinced by the "mod confirmed" argument, but then moved off him and onto MD? Yes you were on MD before LS, but why? I did not move off of LightningStrike and on to MoosyDoosy. I was on LightningStrike at the deadline.
I described this already, here:On December 03 2015 08:30 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 08:25 The Shining wrote:On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote:
Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush? To me, LightningStrike's comments that I quoted indicate that he's scum, and I can't really see him being town despite that. However, the bulk of his play seems like a town lean (pre-yelling) to me. I tried to explain why earlier. The yelling itself seemed extremely towny, I'm used to LightningStrike reacting like that as town and the pre-lynch post is a strong town indicator. All of this combined makes me confident in my LightningStrike town read, were it not for the scummy thing above. Right now my guess is that LightningStrike is town and the thing that I mentioned isn't as important as I thought, even if I'm not quite sure why yet. There is no mafia motivation for it, so maybe that's why it's unimportant. I'm not quite as confident in MoosyDoosy being scum any more, because generally people would listen to me when I'm right. Like, I don't see how I could be wrong, however I need to clear my head and take another look. I think he is likely scum, though. I'm not sure what his post-deadline posts suggest, I'm really terrible at reading into emotions so I might have to ignore those. And I decided that LightningStrike's posts that I thought were suspicious were not suspicious, because it's just an extreme extension of desire to survive, which can come from both alignments (LightningStrike as town really really really plays to survive). Combined with voting analysis, which suggested that LightningStrike was town, I ended in a townread.
I'm not entirely sure what you are getting at, hopefully that answered your question. If not, please ask.
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Town
LightningStrike
disformation
Fecalfeast
Town Lean
DoYouHas
Rels (could be scum, watch out)
Fidei86
Half the Sky
The Shining
Palmar (could be scum, watch out)
Mafia Lean
Damdred (strong lean)
Mafia
NocturneMage
Unfortunately, my town leans are not very strong. The "could be scum, watch out" is partially a fear read, but has other reasons too. A few of them:
Palmar backed off of The Shining rather abruptly. When he plays seriously as town, he often carries his first push really really far (see his push on justanothertownie in the game where we were masons together). I don't believe there's much followup on The Shining in his filter, which is really strange from town!Palmar.
Palmar moved to lynch LightningStrike for Damdred's reasons, I've explained why they are bad. In the past, Palmar's always been willing to work with LightningStrike, so I would have thought he wouldn't switch to LightningStrike like that, but I could be wrong. I do remember him switching from "this is an objectively good lynch" (MoosyDoosy) to "no reason not to lynch him" (LightningStrike), which seems suspicious.
Rels' first post
Rels saying that my point on MoosyDoosy was really good, then forgetting about it, then coming back and saying that he didn't like it because of something completely unrelated to my point
My reasons for suspecting Palmar are better, I think, but they both could maybe be mafia here. I haven't taken a look at any of my towns/town leans in a while, though.
My case on Damdred included some mafia motivations, but it's not all mafia motivations. There are mafia motivations behind his actions, I didn't always specify them because people don't seem to care about mafia motivation this game.
The real reasons that I'm most suspicious of Damdred (that no one else will agree with) are:
1. Damdred mentioned mafia motivation, despite saying that mafia motivation is unimportant whenever he addressed my points on MoosyDoosy. He also did not explain why LightningStrike's play fit mafia motivation, just why it was bad on the surface.
2. Damdred has been malicious this game in the way he misrepresents thing and avoids answering questions/interacting. This is not something I expect from town!Damdred.
Then there are all of the points that I brought up in the case, then there's the mafia motivations that I brought up in the case, then there's the mafia motivations that I didn't bring up. There's a lot of stuff.
I like how NocturneMage is explaining to me (his strongest scumread) why my case is bad. My case on him being wrong was one of the reasons that he said I was mafia. In case there is somehow still any doubt on NocturneMage
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So, I'm pretty sure the game is close to won.
I'm pretty confident in my scum reads that I laid out in my list post, not so confident in my town reads. Even the full town reads, not the town leans, unfortunately. For example, I remembered that disformation's activity is a bit concerning: last game as town, he had the longest filter in the game, this game he's not been all that active. If he's scum, it's his first time being scum, however he's played so many games as town that he might be decent at it on his first try.
My prediction is that Rels is town and that he dies at night, and that the mafia team is NocturneMage, Damdred, and Palmar. Rels dies because mafia can't shoot me, I'm too vocal, it would confirm that my reads are correct. Rels dies because he's less vocal, he's sort of in line with me, he's suspicious of all of the suspects, and he's a darn good player. If someone other than me, Rels, and Palmar dies, I'll be surprised. Maybe even a bit surprised if Palmar dies, because of Rels' case.
That reminds me, I never gave Rels' case(s? there were two, right?) a reread like I meant to. Apologies. I will do so.
Anyway, the below is for if I die. And only for if I die. Please don't read it if I don't die
+ Show Spoiler [only read if Trfel is dead Day 2] +First, if the town vigilante shot me, that's fairly frustrating, I was obvious town. But whatever, that doesn't mean that my reads are wrong. Me being dead is probably beneficial to confirm that I am being truthful in my reads.
Lately, my read accuracy has been pretty good. My last two town games in a row, I was very onto the scum team some time in Day 2. The most recent town game, I'll share an example from Day 2. Everyone was united in lynching someone. I read them as town, I defended them the entire day and tried to explain why they were town. I also caught scum and explained why they were scum and pushed them as scum. In the end, no one listened and the player flipped town, and the player I was pushing was scum. I know what I'm doing sometimes. Note that this game, I read LightningStrike as town (minus that one post) for most of Day 1 while everyone else said otherwise, and now he's very very likely town.
I'm not saying that I'm right 100% on all of my reads, I'm just saying that if mafia shoots me, I'm right on at least one, probably more. Mafia does not possibly shoot me for WIFOM here because I'm the most active player in the thread. I've been pushing the most things with the most confidence. If I'm wrong, then I'm basically handing the game to mafia on a silver platter because there's almost no way I will stop pushing my targets, and mafia knows this. Combine this with my read accuracy the last two games, and mafia can't shoot me. Their only option is to leave me alive and try to reduce my influence or otherwise force me out of the game; maybe even try to mislynch me.
First, NocturneMage needs to be lynched unless he does something extremely towny. So far, his play has been quite scummy; the emotion change from angry/determined to calmly discussing with the strongest scumread doesn't make sense from town. I don't expect much to change from him.
If NocturneMage does flip scum, Damdred should almost always be lynched next. Doesn't matter if Damdred turns around and busses NocturneMage, he's still scum.
As for why Damdred would defend mafia!MoosyDoosy on Day 1 instead of letting him get lynched? It's MoosyDoosy, he finally rolled mafia and he loves to be mafia. Were I mafia, I'd try my best to move mountains and keep him alive. Damdred isn't scum (for association) because he saved MoosyDoosy, he's scum because of how he saved MoosyDoosy by misrepresenting the reasons to scumread him, and then fabricated reasons to lynch (basically confirmed town) LightningStrike instead.
Good luck. Every single player, regardless of alignment, is playing a good game. It's been an honor.
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Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast
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On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list.
I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever.
I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case.
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On December 04 2015 08:31 Fidei86 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. I'm actually almost completely sold on this case. If Dani wasn't having an awful time with the sickness, I would be very confident she was mafia. The key points for me are: 1. Tone. Her posts have a lifeless quality, but it's not clear she actually believe anything she's posting. I mentioned this earlier. 2. At EOD she was 'voting' for LS but wasn't looking for another candidate, then moved onto kush. I've done multiple EOD's with her and usually she's actively trying to solve. It's not clear that she was trying to solve. Both of those things could be explained by themselves viz the sickness, but both of them together, combined with her actually okay activity? I think Alex might well be right on this. I need to read her filter more carefully, but that's for tomorrow. Also can we have a new rule that only people who didn't blindly follow me into the EOD lynch can call me scum? (Okay, MD and Trfel did not follow me, but that precludes a decent chunk of the rest of you). Yeah, I'm currently thinking that maybe Half the Sky is scum and NocturneMage is right. In which case.... I need to talk with MoosyDoosy after the game and figure out what happened there.
By the way, Fidei86:
Hi, scum
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On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that.
Was hoping that no one asked that
I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so)
I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all.
Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here.
And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred.
I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar.
That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred.
But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
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EPT
