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On December 06 2015 09:15 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 09:06 NocturneMage wrote:
well Shining, define "too easily" there's people that could have planned it from the off and there's people in a normal bus - I learnt this in newbie 13 because Damdred caught me for it, that bus her at the very end, and don't try and fight it. they kind of see how thread sentiment goes and then just say "ah fuck it" but then again it's weekend and activity seemed sort of low this weekend.
I have to look into the likeliness of whoever the fuck could have planned it - the timing of my replacement (2300) and the first post against her do look suspect but when I look at DYH filter WITHOUT the associative read, he doesn't really look that bad, so I really don't know, he pulled off a great bus then though if he is mafia. Pretty much little to no discussion. Or going from town to "sheeping NM". Lots of reading to be done. I remember FF explaining more than once his reasoning to sheep NM. Over explanation? Then there's that lone disfo vote...hm. Also Trfel, what makes NM more likely scum than town now that HtS flipped? Her vote was spooky spooky wifom but scum has voted me before in games that I was town but under suspicion. There's not much that's different now. I think that Half the Sky's play suggests that NocturneMage is mafia, however that was something I probably shouldn't have said because it's not really provable. You can draw your own conclusion if you want, or just ignore it.
LightningStrike, sorry I didn't answer your question earlier, but I had answered it a few posts previously and I was saving my 4k post for the very special reason of calling NocturneMage mafia. I was already playing with Half the Sky assumed as mafia, so my reads aren't affected by the flip in itself, it's the way that Half the Sky played that might have an affect on my reads, but that's probably an argument I will need to drop.
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On December 06 2015 09:18 NocturneMage wrote:
trfel - I looked at original op
town are allowed to no lynch.
but this I don't understand
what is the purpose of no lynching? we have three mislynches left?
4th game on tl here, so is there some strategy aspect I am missing???? First, I counted the remaining mislynches incorrectly. I thought that we had two mislynches to MYLO, at which point no lynching would be good. Second, I didn't mean to no lynch first.
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On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it.
But.....On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine.
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On December 06 2015 10:19 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine. This is actually pretty good but I'm not sure it makes NM scum here. You're basically saying he's scumming LS but then talking to him about HtS like he's town, right? This is one reason, I have probably at least 50 reasons of about this strength. Unfortunately, this isn't terribly strong, because talking to a scumread like they're town is something that town does too. However, this is the absolute biggest example of this that I have ever seen, because of the hard transition and he's talking about the same two people. Don't worry, I'll show why NocturneMage is scum at some point. And the tone, asking LightningStrike to trust him... even if talking to a scumread like they're town isn't the best tell, this can't be ignored.
Anyway, I looked through Half the Sky's filter. The way that Half the Sky switched to vote for LightningStrike makes it look like LightningStrike is town. Half the Sky put a lot of effort into trying to figure out LightningStrike's alignment, and eventually came to a null or a town lean or something like that (I forget, for the purposes of this it doesn't matter much). After all that, once the lynch started going to LightningStrike, she switched her vote really easily with the only reason presented being this:On December 03 2015 06:54 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 02 2015 07:32 LightningStrike wrote:Back from class after some relaxation. On December 02 2015 07:18 Rels wrote:
LS: if you had to name a team of 3 mafias, who would that be and why ? Idk yet this game is getting a little hard. I wish that Onegu and Kush actually do stuff so I can flesh them out in terms of alignment. Otherwise after considering that he did his thing on me as a trap(if I reading this correctly) Tfrel moved to null for now but still it was kind of a weird thing to do for him. Idk why people having trouble with DYS? I see him more of a newbie player than a veteran player honestly so(shrugs). So nothing yet for a team. Show nested quote +On December 03 2015 03:16 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:13 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:04 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 02:58 Trfel wrote:On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? read her filter if you want to see her progression on me  + Show Spoiler + And where did you get that conclusion from? On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote:Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted. On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote:
Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason. I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him. Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him. Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though. Yeah.... "I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. It's implied I thought O_o(At least how I read it and I hope she gets better soon honestly) Also for note you played a shit ton of games with me when I'm town and I surprised you kinda forgot how I play  This is the question I want to ask folks - why is he null reading Trfel based on the bolded? Okay, so I went back and found her last LightningStrike read before this.Half the Sky wrote:The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Half the Sky's only reason presented to scumread LightningStrike after this was extremely flawed. Even despite this, the change on the LightningStrike read is really large for something that small (if she thought it was large enough to change this read, she would have been more suspicious of it when asking the question).
Furthermore, Half the Sky's play around End of Day doesn't have much direction. I don't feel like she really cared if LightningStrike or kushm4sta were lynched (or she would have had more direction to her play, or actually pushed kushm4sta once finally deciding that she didn't want to lynch LightningStrike, 8 minutes before the deadline).
This association suggests really, really strongly that Half the Sky is town, contrary to what NocturneMage has stated about the association.
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@LightningStrike, I think you're town.
On December 06 2015 10:29 The Shining wrote:
Also this is something for the next day phase in case I get shot tonight. There are 3 possible setups since Boxer flipped. Boxer vet, boxer Cop, boxer Vig.
There was no Vig shot n1 so unless Vig shoots tonight I'm pretty confident in saying we don't have a Vig and the setup is one of Cop/Boxer and vet/boxer. Obviously neither should claim in the night phase but it might be a good idea if we have a vet to claim next day phase and narrow down the lynch pool, IF YOURE UNDER SUSPICION. The RB flipped so the vet can't be NKd next night phase and it will help with poe after the NK. Obviously if you're shot tonight, you should also instantly claim.
If it is the 1 shot Cop setup, then don't say a damn thing unless you get a red check. If you get a green check, you should also claim it ONLY if they or you are in danger of being lynched, as the only setup we could have with GF is Cop/Vig(not possible because boxer flipped) and vet/boxer, in which case there is no Cop. So the cop check has a 100% accuracy. Okay, I'm breaking my own hard rule
I don't think that the veteran should claim unless they're "reasonably" suspected. "Reasonably" defined at the end of this post.
I actually think that if it's a 1-shot cop with a green check, they should claim it at the start of the next day (assuming both are alive). That's huge, and assuming that the cop was good with their check, the check should be on a "reasonably" suspected person.
"Reasonably" meaning as determined by the power role themself. Basically, if you are the power role, you should make our own decision because you're the only one who knows the situation exactly. You know how scumread you are, you can determine if the value of your claim being hidden is worth however much suspicion/time people spend trying to figure out your alignment. If you're the cop with a check, you know exactly how useful the check is.
Anyway, I don't care to argue this, but let the power roles play their own role ^^
On December 06 2015 10:35 NocturneMage wrote:
I keep getting drawn back to this game, it is too addictive.
also last question, what on earth is a mindmeld? It's when two people are thinking really similarly to each other, presumably either over several similar thoughts or both thinking the same thing at the same time. Hopefully that's close enough.
On December 06 2015 10:34 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine. no that wifom can be interpreted in different ways (1) she could be talkign to a scum buddy - they both are wifoming (2) she could be trying to wifom town ls (3) other people reading that could be wifomed by what hts is saying to town/scum ls. I don't understand this explanation, because you're giving advice to LightningStrike in that post? Are you scumreading LightningStrike, or not?
Also, NocturneMage, any comments on the association with Half the Sky that I mentioned?
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On December 06 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
and trfel we can agree to disagree here. hts is going to take out the person scumreading her - that was kush. she was not going to sit on LS regardless because if LS is town, there was an expectation that she should have known LS was town based on meta (if he is town) she looks really bad, and if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him and once she saw that every one was rushing to kush, she was definitely going to get rid of kush, I guarantee you the same thing would have happened had dyh gotten shennanied, or she would have started that shennanie herself. hts was poor because of agenda.
this is meta, I realise you cannot trust it or may be hesistant to trust it. had she not had a real read on either, she would have gone for the policy lynch, the whole thing points to trying to avoid culpability (yes now I know that is a real word) and I was trying to make that argument all of d2 as I was pushing her. If LightningStrike is mafia, as you think, then why did Half the Sky vote for him in the first place, if she was only planning on jumping off, as you say?
Also, can you please address the previous question about why you were giving advice to your scumread, LightningStrike?
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@NocturneMage, never mind the second question since you already answered it.On December 06 2015 10:49 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:32 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:19 The Shining wrote:On December 06 2015 10:13 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:06 NocturneMage wrote:
Yeah LS, everyone else, like I said, don't even waste your time looking at anything she posted after 2230, it's WIFOM, I know it, just trust me, she's a confirmed weasel. She is trying to fuck with your mind.
In any case, I'll pick up tomorrow. Good night. Half the Sky is trying to WIFOM LightningStrike and she's really good at it. But..... On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. Bold emphasis mine. This is actually pretty good but I'm not sure it makes NM scum here. You're basically saying he's scumming LS but then talking to him about HtS like he's town, right? This is one reason, I have probably at least 50 reasons of about this strength. Unfortunately, this isn't terribly strong, because talking to a scumread like they're town is something that town does too. However, this is the absolute biggest example of this that I have ever seen, because of the hard transition and he's talking about the same two people. Don't worry, I'll show why NocturneMage is scum at some point. And the tone, asking LightningStrike to trust him... even if talking to a scumread like they're town isn't the best tell, this can't be ignored. Anyway, I looked through Half the Sky's filter. The way that Half the Sky switched to vote for LightningStrike makes it look like LightningStrike is town. Half the Sky put a lot of effort into trying to figure out LightningStrike's alignment, and eventually came to a null or a town lean or something like that (I forget, for the purposes of this it doesn't matter much). After all that, once the lynch started going to LightningStrike, she switched her vote really easily with the only reason presented being this: On December 03 2015 06:54 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 07:32 LightningStrike wrote:Back from class after some relaxation. On December 02 2015 07:18 Rels wrote:
LS: if you had to name a team of 3 mafias, who would that be and why ? Idk yet this game is getting a little hard. I wish that Onegu and Kush actually do stuff so I can flesh them out in terms of alignment. Otherwise after considering that he did his thing on me as a trap(if I reading this correctly) Tfrel moved to null for now but still it was kind of a weird thing to do for him. Idk why people having trouble with DYS? I see him more of a newbie player than a veteran player honestly so(shrugs). So nothing yet for a team. On December 03 2015 03:16 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:13 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 03:04 Trfel wrote:On December 03 2015 03:01 LightningStrike wrote:On December 03 2015 02:58 Trfel wrote:On December 02 2015 23:07 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I just woke up, and I am not feeling any better. I'm headed to a doctor's appointment in an hour, but I am hoping to get back in thread barring anything serious.
I fully realise I have a shittonne to catch up on - if anyone has any questions for me, or anything specific they want me to weigh on, please prompt me and I'll do so when I return. First of all, really sorry that you aren't feeling well. Hope you can recover soon. Why did you vote for DoYouHas instead of kushm4sta? Why didn't you include LightningStrike in the lynch list? Now that he's (at least mostly, I think?) answered your questions, what do you think about him? Why did your read on me (Trfel) change? read her filter if you want to see her progression on me + Show Spoiler + And where did you get that conclusion from? On December 02 2015 04:38 Half the Sky wrote:On December 02 2015 04:24 LightningStrike wrote:Okay I here now and Tfrel I did answer HTS just not directly quoted. On December 02 2015 04:15 Half the Sky wrote:
Looking at 346/349 -
LS, I'm not referring to meta. Let's make sure I'm not misunderstanding you here.
I'm not talking about Palmar's tone in general. I'm talking about his case. If you read the context differently, then tell me how you interpreted that.
You are saying that he's town because his tone is serious and from 349 it's based on meta. Okay fine, but regardless of meta, why would Palmar's case NOT be serious? What I'm trying to say here is that you are townreading him for a poor reason. I didn't say it wasn't serious? Anyways the way he argued Shining like I said had a serious tone plus like said he did a very similar thing to me in Metal Mini when I was fighting him and felt frustrated with him. It took me a bit of arguing to get him to townread me in that game because I was still a newbie lol.... So it a little both but more towards personal experience with him. Argh, no. I am saying that you said his tone is serious. In any case, you want to say you are giving a personal read towards him. Alright, I still think this is a bad read because like I said before Palmar really can't be done off one read, but now that I've fleshed it out I don't think you are mafia for this. Still need to read the rest of your filter in conjunction with Trfel/Damdred when I return though. Yeah.... "I don't think you are mafia for this" means that Half the Sky is not scum reading you for one specific thing in your filter. As in, she could be scum reading you for the entire rest of your filter. And that's not a townread on that one thing either. Does anyone know if LightningStrike is generally this self-conscious as town with regards to other people's townreads on him? To make a big jump like this and try to assume everything is a townread? Because this is making me doubt my earlier town lean on him. It's implied I thought O_o(At least how I read it and I hope she gets better soon honestly) Also for note you played a shit ton of games with me when I'm town and I surprised you kinda forgot how I play This is the question I want to ask folks - why is he null reading Trfel based on the bolded? Okay, so I went back and found her last LightningStrike read before this. Half the Sky wrote:The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise. Half the Sky's only reason presented to scumread LightningStrike after this was extremely flawed. Even despite this, the change on the LightningStrike read is really large for something that small (if she thought it was large enough to change this read, she would have been more suspicious of it when asking the question). Furthermore, Half the Sky's play around End of Day doesn't have much direction. I don't feel like she really cared if LightningStrike or kushm4sta were lynched (or she would have had more direction to her play, or actually pushed kushm4sta once finally deciding that she didn't want to lynch LightningStrike, 8 minutes before the deadline). This association suggests really, really strongly that Half the Sky is town, contrary to what NocturneMage has stated about the association. 50 reasons is a lot lol. I do have NM in my town pile, though, so I'm willing to listen to these 50 reasons when you get around to them post-HtS flip. I'm just having a hard time accepting that NM comes into this game immediately bussing his RB, especially if we have a vet. Of course if we don't, that makes it a bit more believable. But I've also spoken to scumreads as if they're town(imperfect knowledge and realizing my read might be wrong) which is why I asked for more. I'm also assuming at the end of this, you meant to say it implies LS is town, not HtS, right? No, I'm pretty sure this shows that Half the Sky is town.
Thanks XD
It's easy for me to go through and give 50 reasons to be suspicious of NocturneMage, but I have to figure out how to present it in a readable way and make sure that it's right first. And that will take a while.
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On December 06 2015 10:52 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 10:49 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:45 NocturneMage wrote:
and trfel we can agree to disagree here. hts is going to take out the person scumreading her - that was kush. she was not going to sit on LS regardless because if LS is town, there was an expectation that she should have known LS was town based on meta (if he is town) she looks really bad, and if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him and once she saw that every one was rushing to kush, she was definitely going to get rid of kush, I guarantee you the same thing would have happened had dyh gotten shennanied, or she would have started that shennanie herself. hts was poor because of agenda.
this is meta, I realise you cannot trust it or may be hesistant to trust it. had she not had a real read on either, she would have gone for the policy lynch, the whole thing points to trying to avoid culpability (yes now I know that is a real word) and I was trying to make that argument all of d2 as I was pushing her. If LightningStrike is mafia, as you think, then why did Half the Sky vote for him in the first place, if she was only planning on jumping off, as you say? Also, can you please address the previous question about why you were giving advice to your scumread, LightningStrike? Cred. She won't be afraid to bus d1 if she decided she might want to stay on and there was absolutely no better choice that could have made her look better/worse. She knows how to plan ahead as mafia and think through the long game and this is already proven in the two scumgames where she has endgamed. second question, I wasn't, it was a general response. You're absolutely right, this makes sense.
But you said here:NocturneMage wrote:
if LS is mafia which he likely is, she needed to get off him and found a meta reason to get off him Please explain?
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On December 06 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote:
I feel I answered 1506 with 1507. wtf.
is there some random esp bullshit going on across the atlantic here? You didn't really answer my question, but fair enough, I'll stop pressing.
Was hoping you'd make a huge slip and confirm yourself as mafia, but it seems you're too good for that Was worth a try, though. @The Shining, I was primarily trying to get information from NocturneMage, not scumread him for that (though it does make me a bit more confident in my suspicion).
And yes, my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage are mostly small reasons. And small reasons aren't that good, even if there are a lot of them. I have a few big reasons that I think are good, I have to go through and see how good those reasons are and how many there are. Keeping them secret for now because if I say them, it might affect NocturneMage's play.
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On December 06 2015 11:01 NocturneMage wrote:
like I have reasons OTHER than that voting situation to believe LS is mafia, you keep forgetting this. the whole back and forth d2. it's not just the damned voting.
I must be really terrible at explaining things....well at least on mobile anyways. No, I get that, and I think your other reasons are also awful XD But based on this post:On December 06 2015 09:24 NocturneMage wrote:
shining re: your post
well somewhere I'm wrong on Palmar/LS/Trfel/DYH as scumleans because there are only two scummers left.
I really honestly don't know where the LS townreads are coming from, when I afked around I think 1800 or whatever my time I tried to see him in a town lens but every interaction just keeps pointing me back to a VERY strong associative read between LS and HTS, like I'm sure it's LS/HTS/+1.
He didn't push HTS, it was questions/soft pushing at best and then he says that her end of cycle was questionable and I said then why didn't you push her on it? that should have been priority 1. and then he asks her a question after the fact.
then I afked, but I didn't read anything after that. It seems that you tried to look at LightningStrike's play through a town lens and were unable to really do so because of the association with Half the Sky. Which I took to mean that the association with Half the Sky is the strongest point, and that you couldn't truly finish looking at the rest of his play through the town lens because of this.
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On December 06 2015 11:05 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:01 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote:
I feel I answered 1506 with 1507. wtf.
is there some random esp bullshit going on across the atlantic here? You didn't really answer my question, but fair enough, I'll stop pressing. Was hoping you'd make a huge slip and confirm yourself as mafia, but it seems you're too good for that Was worth a try, though. @The Shining, I was primarily trying to get information from NocturneMage, not scumread him for that (though it does make me a bit more confident in my suspicion). And yes, my reasons for scumreading NocturneMage are mostly small reasons. And small reasons aren't that good, even if there are a lot of them. I have a few big reasons that I think are good, I have to go through and see how good those reasons are and how many there are. Keeping them secret for now because if I say them, it might affect NocturneMage's play. Well assuming we both survive the night, I'm open to reading a full case next day phase. It's probably better that you don't case someone in the night again though...lol...your track record with that isn't stellar =P Oh, shut up.
I don't believe in silent nights, it's better to continue searching for scum and not delay. I'm pretty happy if scum shoot me anyway, seeing as so many people are suspicious of me, so if my case makes them kill me then I'll happily case away.
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On December 06 2015 11:10 The Shining wrote:
I'm sad though because I feel like my strongest townreads are here and talking in thread putting thoughts out through the night phase. Like I'm used to scum being weary of being in thread during night phase due to wifom and slipping before NKs and blue actions or w.e. Wait, so you're saying that your strongest townreads are doing something that you don't think that scum would do.
Why does this make you sad?
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On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other?
I'm referring to nearly everyone.
DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people.
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On December 06 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people. The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched. In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads. Hm....
I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff.
Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary.
So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis?
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On December 06 2015 12:28 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote:On December 06 2015 11:17 Trfel wrote:On December 06 2015 11:13 The Shining wrote:
Lol I didn't see that post. +1 for agreeing. I don't like silent nights either, I was just poking fun at you with the case comment lol. Whenever you decide to make that case, though, I'll read it but considering I have you both town, and no one has really run interference between you two, my gut tells me it's a town v town kind of thing. Especially since you're under suspicion.
Actually you said a lot of people are suspicious of you. I have a few that come to mind when you say that but who were you referring to? I'm always terrible at trying to understand the "town vs town" or "mafia vs town" or "mafia vs mafia" conclusions that people make with regards to arguments... Can you please walk me through why you think it's town vs town (other than individual reads)? Why would mafia want to "run interference" (assuming you're meaning break up the argument) between two townies scumreading each other? I'm referring to nearly everyone. DoYouHas, Rels, Fidei86, LightningStrike, disformation, NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, and Palmar, I think. Could be wrong on one or two, but either way that is a lot of people. The lack of interference makes it feels town v town. When town is going against another town, like say Palmar and I D1, if both participants are town, scum has no motivation to really weigh in or break it up. Instead they can sit around and see who comes off looking worse from the interaction and choose to try and get them lynched. In this case, you've been suspecting NM for the longest. You cased him and the MD slot before, you still hold suspicion, he's going back at you and responding to you in a way that feels towny to me and trying to explain his thought processes. Scum won't get involved until or unless another town, like myself for instance, weighs in on it and picks a side. Then scum tries to pick that side as well and bury the other. It's not great analysis but I've used it to benefit my reads before, so I know it can be handy when applied hand in hand with logical reads. Hm.... I don't think I agree you, but I'd prefer not to agree to disagree just yet, because I'm not good at this stuff. Let's imagine for a moment that you know that I'm town for sure, and you know that NocturneMage is mafia for sure. Why is mafia super interested in burying me and defending NocturneMage right now, when the lynch was on Half the Sky? I would expect mafia to also be interested in keeping their options open, such that if NocturneMage looks good they can bury me tomorrow, when there's a lynch that isn't Half the Sky, or they can bus if it's necessary. So I'd expect mafia to take stances, but not really push the stances that much. And most everyone has taken stances on the issue, most townreading NocturneMage and scumreading me. So I don't agree with your analysis? Heading out for the evening (at least, what's left of it), but to elaborate a bit... (when I say that, I'm guessing everyone groans?)
I don't feel the need to try and get a huge scumread on NocturneMage and convince everyone just yet, because there's enough time to the deadline. I do think I'll try to get a case out before End of Night, but I don't think it's urgent yet. I would prefer to wait for now, to gather information and keep checking things to see if my reads are correct. Note to self, I'm saving something which I think is very interesting but this isn't the time to share it.
I don't see why the mafia team would feel any more urgency than I do to make a move. Assuming that this is town vs mafia (and thus NocturneMage is mafia), mafia is already a bit on top, so the only time they'd need to move would be in reaction to me. And I haven't really done that much, yet.
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Finally finished my NocturneMage case. It's after 5 AM and I'm extremely tired. Probably for the best, the case is over the post size limit. I'll probably have to make a new version because the current version sucks. Here's how I started it, hopefully this gives a general idea for why I'm scumreading NocturneMage.
I've been struggling with this ever since I finished the case, but in the end I do think that NocturneMage is mafia. This case is very poorly written and badly formatted (it's after 5 am, I'm really, really tired), but I hope it sort of gets the point across. These are basically the biggest reasons why I'm scumreading NocturneMage.
1. Talking to scumreads like they are town/lecturing scumreads on proper town play (this read can be good when applied correctly, though applying it correctly is harder. It's the amount and circumstances where NocturneMage does this that makes it important)
2. Reads change without explanation and without reason (even some of the more important reads), sort of feels like NocturneMage is finding reasons to be suspicious of people instead of trying to solve the game
3. Mindset changes several times throughout the game, and it seems that the best explanation is that NocturneMage is mafia (the most recent/obvious example of this is that NocturneMage spent a large amount of effort getting people to lynch Half the Sky and seemed really excited about it, but then didn't care when she flipped mafia)
I'm not completely sure about this read. The case is primarily a ton of small reasons instead of a few really good ones, and from past experience I'm not so accurate when I scumread people for a ton of small reasons. But looking at NocturneMage's last town game, it feels like he is mafia here because last game, his play was really good and I don't notice the same things. Note that the small reasons are still mafia indicative reasons, it's just that there are more holes that mean that they could come from town more easily than better reasons.
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Sorry, I've been really busy and I don't think I'll have much (or really, any) time today. Poor time planning.
I don't want to lynch DoYouHas. I think I want to lynch NocturneMage, but no one else seems to want to. To be honest, I don't think that I like any of the current wagons, so I'll vote for NocturneMage.
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Actually, hm, looking really quickly at Rels' filter the last few pages, I think I'd rather lynch Rels.
The way he bounces from target to target and is scumreading all of them doesn't make me think that he actually cares about the lynch.
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Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts?
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On December 09 2015 07:20 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2015 07:13 Trfel wrote:
Change of assumptions.
I'm going to assume that even if I don't know why, the most active/vocal posters are town and mostly wrong.
And the mafia are casually standing by the side, watching and sometimes supporting, but letting others lead.
I think that this points at Fecalfeast. Thoughts? The same thing applies to LS but he's just posting just to post and the case on Fidei was beyond awful. I need to re-read his filter last game, can I do that in 40 minutes plus all this other shit.... But LightningStrike is town for other reasons. At least, I think...
Wait, he actually made a case? 10 page filter and a case? No way he is mafia.
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EPT
