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On November 06 2015 21:18 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 20:56 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:15 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
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I just don't really get why you're going into scenario's where you'll never be able to discern which is which though. Like I said;
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You list the possible scenarios, but I'm pretty sure everyone's already figured that if the 3-person mission passes and the 4-person mission fails, it is in fact possible for one of the people in the 3-person mission to still be a spy. Cause I want it to be clear in my head. And that worked; I discovered that if success-then-fail happened, determining your alignment via behaviour will solve a big part of the game. Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it? Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here. You're a little shit =D ![[image loading]](http://qc.createdebate.com/img/blog_article_images/disagreement-hierarchy.jpg) Thanks for playing! Pretty cool (= I'm picturing you with your folder of "funny and town-looking images", waiting for the perfect opportunity to post one
Is that an indirect way of calling me mafia?
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On November 06 2015 21:22 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 21:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:18 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 20:56 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[quote]
Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it?
Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here. You're a little shit =D Thanks for playing! Pretty cool (= I'm picturing you with your folder of "funny and town-looking images", waiting for the perfect opportunity to post one Is that an indirect way of calling me mafia? No. Did you feel attacked by that post ?
The way you phrased it made me think you were scumreading me, yes. Generally people don't feel the need to specify "town-looking images" when they're talking about people they are in fact townreading.
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On November 06 2015 21:25 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 21:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:18 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 20:56 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[quote]
How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here. You're a little shit =D Thanks for playing! Pretty cool (= I'm picturing you with your folder of "funny and town-looking images", waiting for the perfect opportunity to post one Is that an indirect way of calling me mafia? No. Did you feel attacked by that post ? The way you phrased it made me think you were scumreading me, yes. Generally people don't feel the need to specify "town-looking images" when they're talking about people they are in fact townreading. It's pretty obvious it was a joke though.
Given the fact that you've been dancing around my alignment for a while now I didn't find it a very obvious joke, but very well.
Talk to me about Shockeyy. You seem to be one of the only people townreading him.
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Snipped a bunch of quotes since the preview was getting ridiculous
On November 06 2015 21:38 Rels wrote:
First, his play makes no sense for scum. His scumreads are the two most townread people this game, and he's keeping them since the beginning of the game; and I think he might be right on rayn. This has transformed him into someone whom nobody listens to and nobody picks in their team. If that guy is mafia, he's playing to lose the game.
Second, he has this idea of solving the game that guides his posts and votes; trapping one scum with two townies so we can ignore that guy forever. That's obviously not a great idea, since scum doesn't really care about being ignored if he has made a mission failed; but the fact that he is believing it so hard makes him town in my eyes, even though the idea itself is bad.
Hm, I can see the former. However, other people have been posting doubts about Rayn (you, there's someone else that I put on my chart that I can't ermemer right now) and Xatalos (Kita) so he wasn't really alone in that. Nevertheless, I'll concede it's a point in his favour.
I don't think an idea that's actually good for scum in the end is something that can really be used to townread someone. The idea he was pushing doesn't really make sense for town, and it does make sense for mafia. He also doesn't really appear to be trying to do anything, possibly to prevent himself from associating with anyone. Couldn't he just figure he's basically been caught so he should mostly just try to fling shit at people we think are town and see if it sticks?
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On November 06 2015 21:53 Rels wrote:Since you're there: Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 18:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote:
Ah got it James. <3
I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know.
And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. That doesn't make sense. If SL is mafia and "suck it up and pass" the team, then he didn't "suck it up", he voted "yes" to a team with a scum in it. You seem to assume: - SL is town, since you're wondering whether 2 or 3 mafias voted against it, so it has to be a clean team - SL is mafia, since he could have suck it up and pass Or is there another logical explanation for this post ? 'cause I'm not seeing it What logical explanations could exist for that post ? I'm only seeing one myself.
I'm not doing any analysis on the people that are currently up for the mission. Don't want to guide the decision of any possible spy on there.
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On November 07 2015 08:16 Half the Sky wrote:What we know SL/Xata/rayn = 1 spy Rels/shockey/Superbia/Kita/Artanis = 2 spies Latest voting results: Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 08:00 Tictock wrote:
Day 1
Xatalos Nomination (Xatalos, rayn, sicklucker)
Vote Result
Half the Sky - YES
Xatalos - YES
Artanis[Xp] - YES
raynpelikoneet - YES
ShoCkeyy - NO
Rels - NO
sicklucker - YES
kitaman27 - NO
Superbia - NO
MISSION IS APPROVED
Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, and sicklucker will be embarking on Mission 1
Mission will be completed in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 6 November 2015.
We don't know that. There could be 2 spies in the first mission.
Also, I guess we're not sending the same mission + me then. Huh.
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On November 07 2015 08:21 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:17 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 08:16 Half the Sky wrote:What we know SL/Xata/rayn = 1 spy Rels/shockey/Superbia/Kita/Artanis = 2 spies Latest voting results: On November 06 2015 08:00 Tictock wrote:
Day 1
Xatalos Nomination (Xatalos, rayn, sicklucker)
Vote Result
Half the Sky - YES
Xatalos - YES
Artanis[Xp] - YES
raynpelikoneet - YES
ShoCkeyy - NO
Rels - NO
sicklucker - YES
kitaman27 - NO
Superbia - NO
MISSION IS APPROVED
Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, and sicklucker will be embarking on Mission 1
Mission will be completed in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 6 November 2015. We don't know that. There could be 2 spies in the first mission. Also, I guess we're not sending the same mission + me then. Huh. LOL no. Eh, in the actual resistance we know the number of sabotages, but I guess that's not the case here. NVM.
You do realize one of the spies could've voted pass, right?
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On November 07 2015 08:27 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:23 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 08:21 Half the Sky wrote:On November 07 2015 08:17 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 08:16 Half the Sky wrote:What we know SL/Xata/rayn = 1 spy Rels/shockey/Superbia/Kita/Artanis = 2 spies Latest voting results: On November 06 2015 08:00 Tictock wrote:
Day 1
Xatalos Nomination (Xatalos, rayn, sicklucker)
Vote Result
Half the Sky - YES
Xatalos - YES
Artanis[Xp] - YES
raynpelikoneet - YES
ShoCkeyy - NO
Rels - NO
sicklucker - YES
kitaman27 - NO
Superbia - NO
MISSION IS APPROVED
Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, and sicklucker will be embarking on Mission 1
Mission will be completed in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 6 November 2015. We don't know that. There could be 2 spies in the first mission. Also, I guess we're not sending the same mission + me then. Huh. LOL no. Eh, in the actual resistance we know the number of sabotages, but I guess that's not the case here. NVM. You do realize one of the spies could've voted pass, right? I'm starting to think that HtS is a spy.... What are your thoughts on her?
I already kind of thought so earlier honestly. Still need to think about things and currently preoccupied.
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I'd like to hear Rayn/Xata/SL's thoughts on one another; who they think is likeliest to be scum and why.
As for my nominations, I think it's likely that only one of the three is scum which means there's 1/3 in there and 2/5 in the rest, so I'm likely to nominate 2 from that group and 1 from the rest. I already have a good idea of who I want to pick but I'd like to hear more from others first.
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On November 07 2015 18:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:The problem is, Artanis, that unless you are scum this game is not gonna be won by town. Rels is probably town after all and so is kitaman, but Rels scumreads me and kitaman scumreads Xatalos and we were on a mission that failed so...  This becomes even more hard if ShoCkeyy is town aswell, which i don't believe. But yeah, the game is pretty much lost so i don't really care. HtS/sicklucker/Shockeyy is scum. Most likely.
You're saying that is if you can't change their scumreads. Are you going to give up on the first hurdle? Is this the Town Rayn that I know and love? You're not going to fight to prove that you're town?
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On November 07 2015 18:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 18:50 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:The problem is, Artanis, that unless you are scum this game is not gonna be won by town. Rels is probably town after all and so is kitaman, but Rels scumreads me and kitaman scumreads Xatalos and we were on a mission that failed so... This becomes even more hard if ShoCkeyy is town aswell, which i don't believe. But yeah, the game is pretty much lost so i don't really care. HtS/sicklucker/Shockeyy is scum. Most likely. You're saying that is if you can't change their scumreads. Are you going to give up on the first hurdle? Is this the Town Rayn that I know and love? You're not going to fight to prove that you're town? Not really no. I don't care to argue about stuff that can be easily found in my filter. If that is the reason for scumreading me then fine. I'll let them scumread me. I don't care, i have better things to do than repeat what i have already said.
You realize that by doing stuff it can overcome whatever it is they're scumreading you for right? Don't be like this, Rayn. Please
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I have an idea.
##Nominate Artanis[Xp], Kitaman27, Raynpelikoneet, Superbia
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On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted.
Why do you suddenly think Rels is town?
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On November 07 2015 19:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Because it doesn't make sense that 2 sscum voted nay and Shockeyy is 100% scum.
I can see it making sense. When scum scumread players on the suggested team, they can't yayvote regardless of what they want. Shockey scumread you and xata and rels scumread you and SL. Even if they wanted to yayvote, they couldn't given their reads.
Though I guess I can see how Rels' scumread on both of you came after the team was already nominated, so it was a choice and he didn't really need to turn around and do that. I need to check if he scumread SL before the team was suggested now.
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Yeah Rels had been suspicious of SL a lot already so there was no way he could vote yes to the mission.
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On November 07 2015 09:52 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:45 Xatalos wrote:On November 07 2015 09:16 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:00 Fidei86 wrote:
!!! MISSION FAILED !!!
1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 2
Artanis[Xp]'s Nomination Phase
Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 7 November 2015. Alright then we have at least one scum in Xata / rayn / SL. Then I think we have at the very least 2 scums in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, maybe 3. I think that's a reasonable assumption... But rayn is most likely town, so I guess that would mean HTS, Artanis and SL would be scum? Kind of hard to see at least Artanis being scum, HTS maybe. So I'd guess there are 1+ scum hiding in the NO votes as well. Don't know, I'm kinda re evaluating everything here. The obvious answer to me is "rayn is scum, SL is town, rayn put SL to blame him when the team fails." Then at least HTS or Arta with him, maybe both. But SL is not obvious town either, so I'm not sure. And let's not forget YOU are the one that nominated the failing team. If you're scum, that would mean you broke your meta, but that's possible.
Okay, hold up, timeline:
1. Rels considered SL scummy.
2. Rels started considering Rayn scummy.
3. Rels still considered SL scummy.
4. Mission fails.
5. Rels considers SL obvious town because he's being set up by Rayn.
What happened between 3 and 5 that made you think it's MORE likely for SL to be town after the mission fails?
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On November 07 2015 19:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 19:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Because it doesn't make sense that 2 sscum voted nay and Shockeyy is 100% scum. I can see it making sense. When scum scumread players on the suggested team, they can't yayvote regardless of what they want. Shockey scumread you and xata and rels scumread you and SL. Even if they wanted to yayvote, they couldn't given their reads. Though I guess I can see how Rels' scumread on both of you came after the team was already nominated, so it was a choice and he didn't really need to turn around and do that. I need to check if he scumread SL before the team was suggested now. I mean like if you look at the things from my perspective: If i assume you are town (or from your perspective -- if you assume i am town), the Xatalos/rayn/SL team is probably the best mafia can get. I don't believe any of Rels/kitaman/Superbia is dumb enough to not realise that, given that the next two leaders are you and me. If the mission gets nay-voted, you will probably pick yourself (town), me (town) and someone else (possibly town). It just doesn't make any sense for any of them to downvote the mission (which is also accepted by townies). It doesn't even matter if the mafia is SL or Xatalos, if you wanna go down that road (that Xatalos is scum). Shockeyy has already proven he has no idea what he is doing anyways. And i highly doubt Xatalos, as scum, would pick two scum onto the mission, and i know, if i was scum, i would downvote the mission with 2 scum in it, because it is highly likely that none of the three people will get picked onte the next missions and suddenly you have 6 players where only one is mafia, and people won't even listen to you as you were on a mission that failed. It is just bad play to nominate 2 scum onto a mission, i know i am not mafia, so there has to be exactly 1 mafia on the mission.
I agree that Kita and Superbia are likely town, ergo why I nominated them. I just don't think you can make it as clear cut as "they voted no so they're likely town". You establish reads during the game and if you yay-vote a team where you scumread 1-2 people on it, you're basically outing yourself. I don't think it clears him for that reason.
I also don't think you can downvote the mission if you townread everyone on it. That just doesn't make any sense.
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On November 07 2015 19:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 19:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 19:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 19:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Because it doesn't make sense that 2 sscum voted nay and Shockeyy is 100% scum. I can see it making sense. When scum scumread players on the suggested team, they can't yayvote regardless of what they want. Shockey scumread you and xata and rels scumread you and SL. Even if they wanted to yayvote, they couldn't given their reads. Though I guess I can see how Rels' scumread on both of you came after the team was already nominated, so it was a choice and he didn't really need to turn around and do that. I need to check if he scumread SL before the team was suggested now. I mean like if you look at the things from my perspective: If i assume you are town (or from your perspective -- if you assume i am town), the Xatalos/rayn/SL team is probably the best mafia can get. I don't believe any of Rels/kitaman/Superbia is dumb enough to not realise that, given that the next two leaders are you and me. If the mission gets nay-voted, you will probably pick yourself (town), me (town) and someone else (possibly town). It just doesn't make any sense for any of them to downvote the mission (which is also accepted by townies). It doesn't even matter if the mafia is SL or Xatalos, if you wanna go down that road (that Xatalos is scum). Shockeyy has already proven he has no idea what he is doing anyways. And i highly doubt Xatalos, as scum, would pick two scum onto the mission, and i know, if i was scum, i would downvote the mission with 2 scum in it, because it is highly likely that none of the three people will get picked onte the next missions and suddenly you have 6 players where only one is mafia, and people won't even listen to you as you were on a mission that failed. It is just bad play to nominate 2 scum onto a mission, i know i am not mafia, so there has to be exactly 1 mafia on the mission. I agree that Kita and Superbia are likely town, ergo why I nominated them. I just don't think you can make it as clear cut as "they voted no so they're likely town". You establish reads during the game and if you yay-vote a team where you scumread 1-2 people on it, you're basically outing yourself. I don't think it clears him for that reason. I also don't think you can downvote the mission if you townread everyone on it. That just doesn't make any sense. I know Rels scumread Superbia and HtS before the mission went on. idk who was his third scumread at that time. Me? or SL?
He suspected both of you.
Also I can kind of understand why Rels said you were pushing for SL, though he is incorrect. You just said you were okay with the pick.
On November 05 2015 03:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Well anyways i am not opposed to the sicklucker pick, maybe we will get some real voting going on.
On November 05 2015 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 03:22 Xatalos wrote:
Hmmm...
I guess I've felt slightly more comfortable with sicklucker over Artanis because it's more possible for Artanis to just "appear good" as scum (like his latest posts have seemed pretty good) rather than for sicklucker to just "indirectly" look townie like that. It's not a big difference really.
And isn't sicklucker pretty townread actually? On the other hand, there are suspicions on Superbia. Like I think Artanis showed suspicion earlier. Actually i think sicklucker is a pretty guud pick. If i assume my reads are even almost correct i wanna know what Rels does tomorrow if the team of me/you/SL passes the mission and Artanis (obviously) adds himself. 
But yeah, not pushing it.
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On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc.
On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc.
On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc.
On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc.
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EPT
