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On November 07 2015 23:03 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's not what i asked. Way to talk about something completely different that i in fact asked..... So your reasoning is "because they would then have unexplained change in reads". I believe Rels is good enough to figure a way out here -- especially if, as you claim, Xatalos is scum. Like if that is the case, i am 100% certain Rels could have found a reason to townread sicklucker -- because sicklucker would ACTUALLY be town (and he townread me + Xatalos anyways, before the team nomination went out). As I said, I could be wrong on Rels so I have to start from scratch on him. The argument you are presenting is that Rels doesn't have TMI (or however you said it) on SL, but this is also based on your pre-conceived notion that sicklucker actually IS scum. If Rels is scum, he doesn't just have to TMI sicklucker, there are other ways. Let's say that SL is town, and that somehow you're wrong on Xata (and you've been wrong on reads before, so don't say you aren't wrong). Surely you can entertain the slightest possibility that you are wrong.
SL being town, me being scum, me pushing SL == me TMI SL ? TMI means Too Much Information or something like that, it's used when someone shows he has info he shouldn't have (like a strong but not logical townread on a townie). So what you're saying doesn't make sense; why did you want to say ?
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On November 07 2015 23:23 Superbia wrote:
Actually barely have time today, unfortunately.
Imo we have to find out which of the three is scum (maybe more). We can't exclude all 3 of them in the team, because if we get a fail we're essentially fucked in the ass. In my world Xatalos is either exclusively with rayn or not scum (though rayn could be independently scum). SL is a fucked-up case, as I really can't see him in the team ever again. His reactions don't help.
My other problem is that Artanis/HtS are both on the yes votes despite not being on the team, which kind of means I don't want to include them on the team.
The team I would suggest would be: Rayn/Xatalos/Superbia/Kita (or perhaps Artanis instead of Kita, since Kita could be with SL- I'm still a little stuck on who the last member would be- probably someone who is/was on the raynistown-train). Which means that if this team produces a fail rayn would probably be for sure mafia. Yes, I understand that this could be a set up if I'm mafia myself, but get fucked.
So to re-iterate: we cannot make a team which excludes all members of the first team at this point in time, as a fail would mean absolutely fuck all.
I also know that people had some questions for me: rayn and rels. Rels I don't remember your question so please restate it asap (maybe I'll find it after this post). Rayn, I stated that I had the willies on you and HtS even though you both felt town. I've explained this I believe.
Another post I like from Superbia. But once again it's about setup and stuff. Superbia, when will you be available to talk in thread ?
For example, your team suggestion makes sense with the assumption SL is mafia; it would be good if you expanded though, 'cause putting 2 members out of 3 of the failed team only makes sense if you're convinced SL is mafia.
The question was:
On November 05 2015 17:46 Rels wrote:Now Superbia, can you answer this ? Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 01:34 Rels wrote:On November 05 2015 01:26 Superbia wrote:On November 05 2015 01:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I actually think the argument has gone off base so far that its depleted its usefulness and we should move onto more productive things.
Superbia, you indicated you think Kita is scum for how he read you. Is there anything else you dislike about him? What do you think about the rest of his reads? Perhaps you are right in this argument. In any case we should probably not pursue it any further now as it will not help me evaluate Rels in any sort of way. Kita is still up in the air at this point, he's not in my town circle. (My PoE scum list is: Rels, Shockey, Kita, Sicklucker, HtS/maybe you) I'm mostly going off the votes here: - There's a general feel that it is obvious most people will vote no- so scum (as having no QT) are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.). - Mafia are very likely to vote yes on a mission with a mafia. Unless the consensus is against it. Consensus takes heavy priority over everything for mafia. - Mafia are somewhat likely to vote no on a mission with only town. They can vote yes to look good, especially early on. This can very easily go against consensus ("see, I told you the mission would pass!"). - Mafia are very likely to vote no on a mission with only town, if the situation is dire. - Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either. So: If the team consisted of town, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, shockey, sicklucker. If the team had a mafia, and my PoE is correct: - Mafia is likely: Rels, Kita, Shockey/SL. OR Rels, HtS (who would attempt to frame Kita), shockey/SL. Alternate world would include both HtS and Kita but eh. Could be, but I don't think so atm. I think rayn's argument as to kita trying to influence the team a lot near deadline is good. I think the fact that none of the team-members votes for the team to pass leans towards a scum being on the team (scum votes as consensus, town votes what they believe, the fact that no one in the team believed therefore leans me more towards a scum being in the team). I don't understand how you can say "scums are more likely to vote with the general consensus (not sticking out etc.)." and put Shockey in your POE list. You then say "Stand out vote is usually either trolly or complete confidence. I don't think shockey was/had either.", which doesn't explain it. Expand please ?
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On November 07 2015 23:42 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 23:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 23:33 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 23:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 23:03 Half the Sky wrote:On November 07 2015 22:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's not what i asked. Way to talk about something completely different that i in fact asked..... So your reasoning is "because they would then have unexplained change in reads". I believe Rels is good enough to figure a way out here -- especially if, as you claim, Xatalos is scum. Like if that is the case, i am 100% certain Rels could have found a reason to townread sicklucker -- because sicklucker would ACTUALLY be town (and he townread me + Xatalos anyways, before the team nomination went out). As I said, I could be wrong on Rels so I have to start from scratch on him. The argument you are presenting is that Rels doesn't have TMI (or however you said it) on SL, but this is also based on your pre-conceived notion that sicklucker actually IS scum. If Rels is scum, he doesn't just have to TMI sicklucker, there are other ways. Let's say that SL is town, and that somehow you're wrong on Xata (and you've been wrong on reads before, so don't say you aren't wrong). Surely you can entertain the slightest possibility that you are wrong. No it is not. It is based on the fact YOU think Rels is scum. For Rels to be scum the following must be true: 1) he knows there is mafia on the mission 2) he still nay-votes the mission 3) instead of (as you are arguing) pushing the "easy target" (sicklucker), he decides to push him AND me Now mafia will obviously want to sabotage the first mission. Rels' play only makes sense as mafia if rayn is scum or Artanis is scum. Because it is highly expected that Artanis will pick AT LEAST rayn (as proven, if you weren't able to figure that out earlier). Otherwise, Rels, by nay-voting the team (where he has an easy scumread on SL after, especially if -- as you say -- Xatalos is scum) hinders his chances of getting a 1-scum mission 1 team. Rels already knows Shockeyy (who you assume is scum with him) will 100% vote nay to the mission. How how does this make sense again? In a sense that Rels doesn't take the easy way out -- instead he takes the hard way out, of calling by ALSO me scum. Like it would be really easy to Rels for just "make up" a legitmate reason for SL to be town (as by your definition SL is town as Xatalos is scum), and after the mission fails he can go, like you do; "hmm... well one of these guys has to be scum, i guess i was wrong on [insert name here]". Why is that less likely? Why does he less likely do that as mafia than what he did? You keep pushing this logic about how Rels would yayvote a mission with a mafia on it, but I really don't see how he could when he scumreads at least one player on the mission and make any sense of it. I would also still like to hear what your reasons are for considering Xata so town. I am trying to say i think Rels would have approached the situation differently. Obviously he "can't yay-vote the team" if you just look at what he posted, but my interpretation is that if he was scum he would not post what he did during the voting phase. My read on Xatalos is based on meta. Like based on the last game i don't really look into small inconsistancies that he posts, or him saying he thinks both me and him (while that i stupid) should be included on the mission 2. If someone wants to prove he is scum feel free to and i am willing to listen, i don't think kitaman's case makes him scum. The fact that (gameplay-wise) sicklucker thinks i have 60%+ chance of being scum and he is arguing why Xatalos is scum instead of why i am scum should be scum-indicative already. At least more than anything Xatalos has posted imo. Like i said, i don't see why anything Xatalos has posted is scummy. What am i supposed to argue about? Hmm, I think that Rels maneuvered himself into this corner and couldn't really get out of it anymore when the mission was being voted for. Bussing makes a decent amount of sense in the setup, so I can imagine him bussing SL for things he thinks look very scummy to make himself look better and attempt to get on a team himself. Which, when it fails, will make the other scumbuddy look better and the amount of people on the mission would widen so SL could make it into a second mission. As for Xatalos; I kinda expected you to have something specific you read him on other than him not posting anything scummy given the strength of your read.
Wow still thinking I'm scum and creating scenarios to explain my actions. I better have missed your post where you explain why you scumread me; otherwise this makes 0 sense.
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On November 08 2015 02:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 02:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 08 2015 01:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 08 2015 01:50 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 08 2015 01:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 08 2015 01:48 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 08 2015 01:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Artanis why do you want to change the team if you think i am town? Because I think Rels is mafia and you are town. If Rels is mafia why do both of SL and Xatalos say they will vote no? To look better and/or because they scumread Rels of course. Why do they not change their read on Rels based on what i said? Actually Xatalos doesn't even scumread Rels... Or like, he has three other people who are "more likely to be mafia than Rels", yet he STILL wants to downvote the team. Well, I'm willing to add Rels if you're that confident. But if he ends up being scum I will blame you postgame  the thing is if the mission somehow gets sabotaged, people will blame me. and i will get mad for it. and both of the possible mafia (SL/Xata) don't want the team (excluding me) to go anyways. I think it is just better play, and i think Rels is not mafia. You can blame me post game if he is scum.
Oh that's why you were angry when I got back to the thread and called you mafia =D
I'm not that sure you were the mafia in the team. I might have been influenced by all the things you said about me though; but our reads aren't that different, except for Shockey and Arta. So if you're town, please think about it:
- every game, you're the reason a bad town gets mislynched. I've use this tendency of you in the two scum games I had. Think about it; why would Shockey act like that if he was scum ? What it the motivation ?
- likewise, what is the motivation of Arta of putting me in a team when he seems magicly convinced I'm scum (unless I missed his "Rels is scum") post ?
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On November 08 2015 02:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I would like you to tell us why i am mafia.
I'm not that sure anymore, but here is my problems with your play:
- your read on me is not logical. I understand that's OMGUS that I will let that pass EXCEPT that post where you say my play here is "boring" and comparing my town play to my noobking push. I've explained in length why it is not true, and you should have known that.
- you're leading the thread, and that scares me. The first team included you; the second team was a suggestion of you (?) or at least a team you were OK with; and that Arta's team is a straigth up order from you.
- you were part of a failure team; you voted YES to this failure team.
- Arta putting a scumread of his in his nomination is super scummy; if you're scum, you're scum with Arta, and that's why he's listening to you. Why are you townreading the guy ?
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HTS you mentioned two times you will do a shallowness evaluation of Xata to know his alignement. But you didn't do it; you hard townread it before the failure; and you are now scumreading it. All of this happened without any shallowness analysis.
1 - Did I miss it ?
2 - If not, why are you scumreading him without it ? And will you do it ?
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Shockey I would like your input on this.
On November 06 2015 18:34 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 08:56 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 06 2015 08:53 Xatalos wrote:On November 06 2015 08:48 Xatalos wrote:On November 03 2015 03:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I'm pretty much going to reject the xata/rayn combo wombo. I'd rather see the first team mentioned - hts,super,xata go through. At least if a sabotage happens, we definitely have a good chance of finding the mafia until the next mission. Hmmm... I guess there is an explanation at least.... Of some sort... So if I got this right... shockeyy would only vote for missions where there's one of me/rayn, but not both......? shockeyy? Yes, but if you used your brain, you would understand why... If both of you are on a mission together and one mission gets sabotaged, then it's hard to differentiate wether or not you both sabotaged it. If you go on solo missions, rather than together, it makes it easier to see if you or rayn are mafia. Obviously you both got you wanted and are now butt buddies on the same team. OK. Shockey, your way of thinking doesn't make sense in this game. The primary goal is not to find scums, it's to win three missions. If you vote three missions with one scum each to "find out the scums", you solve the game; but you lose it in the same time.Now I'm not saying this makes you scum. Actually that's a town mindset: solving the game by finding out who is scum. But even if it's super captivating, it's flawed. You win by winning three missions. If you push your reasonning, it's better to vote yes to a team that has two scums inside than one scum inside, since you can get rid of these three players and have a good shot of winning the next three missions. I think it's twisted, since the goal of the game is to win missions, and finding scums is the way to achieve it, not the opposite; but I see the town motivation behind it. Please think about it. Pushing for teams with only one scum in it is exactly what scums want.
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Arta's read evolution on me:
On November 05 2015 06:44 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Need to re-eval rels more when I actually have a pc and can compare filters. Moving him back to null/fear read though.
Null read - need evaluation.
On November 06 2015 06:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 06:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 02:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 05 2015 22:29 Half the Sky wrote:On the topic of Artanis, I know he said he'd free up more Thursday so I look forward to reading more from him. Can't recall if he has capoeira today though, IRL he has been on a tear with that. Which means if he drops by in the UK, his first objective will be to dropkick me. Damn it.  Nope, I'm gonna mostly have time for the next four hours. I may drop by to dropkick you anyway though  On November 05 2015 07:23 Rels wrote:On November 05 2015 06:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Oh jesus rels is involved in everything as mafia too x_x How do you know I'm involved in everything as town as well ? I'm pretty sure we never played together ?? Two things: A) I assume most people have far more involved town games than scumgames. My townread on you came from the fact that you seem very active and involved in almost every discussion. That's generally enough to townread most players. B) I have seen you play town before, though I haven't played with you. I'm not sure which game I was observing anymore but I have done so. Also C) I never called you scum. I said you're back to null because what I thought made you town is apparently not alignment indicative. OK that makes sense. Security check: can you link me to the game in question ? All my games are in my profile so that should take you like 5 seconds. Im also pretty sure you said you would be reading my filter and evaluating me. Will you do it, or are you pulling a Hts ? Student Mafia XVI. I was a coach there too. I did kinda evaluate you, though not as thoroughly yet as I need to. I also want to know why you suddenly decided to re-eval Rayn.
Didn't finish the eval. Rels why did you re evaluate rayn ?
On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
I'm kind of around but at work. Not much to say until we find out if the mission passes or not honestly. If it does, I'm obviously nominating myself with the other three. Don't want to say too much about it before the pass/fail happens to not give any clues to any spy whether they should sabotage or not.
@Rels/HtS your explanations were satisfactory, though I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc.
Rels, your explanation was satisfactory.
On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:15 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:08 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:01 Rels wrote:
[quote]
Why do you expect a conclusion when we don't know what will happen ? I will do a proper vote analysis when we know the result. What I'm thinking above is independant from my reads, so it will be interesting to match vote analysis with reads. Because I just don't understand the point of the post you made. Thinking about the different possible scenarios that could happen from that vote pattern, regardless of what I think of the players myself, so it's easier to understand what's going on when we get the result. I just don't really get why you're going into scenario's where you'll never be able to discern which is which though. Like I said; being "unlikely" that they'd pass a mission with a mafia in it only to follow it up with the fact that it is possible You list the possible scenarios, but I'm pretty sure everyone's already figured that if the 3-person mission passes and the 4-person mission fails, it is in fact possible for one of the people in the 3-person mission to still be a spy. Cause I want it to be clear in my head. And that worked; I discovered that if success-then-fail happened, determining your alignment via behaviour will solve a big part of the game. Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it? Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here.
(after a back and forth) You made a post that didn't say anything.
On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town?
On November 07 2015 19:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 19:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 18:59 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 18:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really think you should pick Rels. You will never get this team yay-voted. Why do you suddenly think Rels is town? Because it doesn't make sense that 2 sscum voted nay and Shockeyy is 100% scum. I can see it making sense. When scum scumread players on the suggested team, they can't yayvote regardless of what they want. Shockey scumread you and xata and rels scumread you and SL. Even if they wanted to yayvote, they couldn't given their reads. Though I guess I can see how Rels' scumread on both of you came after the team was already nominated, so it was a choice and he didn't really need to turn around and do that. I need to check if he scumread SL before the team was suggested now.
On November 07 2015 19:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Yeah Rels had been suspicious of SL a lot already so there was no way he could vote yes to the mission.
Sudden scumread ?
On November 07 2015 19:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:52 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 09:45 Xatalos wrote:On November 07 2015 09:16 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:00 Fidei86 wrote:
!!! MISSION FAILED !!!
1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 2
Artanis[Xp]'s Nomination Phase
Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 7 November 2015. Alright then we have at least one scum in Xata / rayn / SL. Then I think we have at the very least 2 scums in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, maybe 3. I think that's a reasonable assumption... But rayn is most likely town, so I guess that would mean HTS, Artanis and SL would be scum? Kind of hard to see at least Artanis being scum, HTS maybe. So I'd guess there are 1+ scum hiding in the NO votes as well. Don't know, I'm kinda re evaluating everything here. The obvious answer to me is "rayn is scum, SL is town, rayn put SL to blame him when the team fails." Then at least HTS or Arta with him, maybe both. But SL is not obvious town either, so I'm not sure. And let's not forget YOU are the one that nominated the failing team. If you're scum, that would mean you broke your meta, but that's possible. Okay, hold up, timeline: 1. Rels considered SL scummy. 2. Rels started considering Rayn scummy. 3. Rels still considered SL scummy. 4. Mission fails. 5. Rels considers SL obvious town because he's being set up by Rayn. What happened between 3 and 5 that made you think it's MORE likely for SL to be town after the mission fails?
Here is a thing Rels did that was weird.
On November 07 2015 22:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Artanis i would really like you to swap me with Rels. I think Rels has a good chance of being scum though. I'd feel more comfortable with about anyone else but Shockeyy and probably sicklucker (though I'm not entirely convinced it's sicklucker over Xata)
Rels has a good chance of being scum.
This makes no sense. I'm null - need eval; since then:
- Arta commented on two weird things I did from his POV
- I voted NO to a failure team
and I have a good chance of being scum ?
Artanis. Explain yourself.
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I think the scum team is HTS / Arta / XX. XX being one of Xata / rayn / SL.
I have a hard time seeing HTS and rayn together; it's possible but unlikely, especially given rayn's view on bussing in this setup. I also have a hard time seeing HTS and Xata together, seeing how HTS just attacked Xata. So SL is the most likely.
The thing is Arta / rayn makes some sense. No hesitation to call the other town; and Artanis accepting a team rayn suggests that contains one of his scumread. If I'm wrong on HTS, the team is rayn / Arta / (Xata or Superbia). The third member is a problem; Xata being scum would mean two scums in the team which is subobtimal; and Superbia voted NO to the damn team.
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On November 08 2015 04:21 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 04:07 Rels wrote:
HTS you mentioned two times you will do a shallowness evaluation of Xata to know his alignement. But you didn't do it; you hard townread it before the failure; and you are now scumreading it. All of this happened without any shallowness analysis.
1 - Did I miss it ?
2 - If not, why are you scumreading him without it ? And will you do it ? On mobile. I took a comparison of scumreads in response to Kita's question and I made two posts and a few points. I cited the specific posts in my filter and asked people to comment. Superbia looked in it IIRC and couldn't make up his mind on Xata.
I assume it's this then:
On November 07 2015 22:18 Half the Sky wrote:sicklucker, I did some digging in Xatalos' filter. This was his reason for PoEing you out as the scum in the mission team. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:25 Xatalos wrote:
Mehh... I guess there's the very slight argument against rayn that he so easily townread Superbia when I got the opposite impression from the events... I just kind of don't think rayn would go out of his way to townread Superbia in that situation as scum, no matter what Superbia is. From what I remember, he scumread very aggressively in the VS game as scum (for not-so-good reasons as well), but didn't have many townreads at all. Meanwhile in the last Vanilla game as town he gave away townreads very easily (especially the townreads to me, Vivax and ritoky right away). So this basically falls more into his town play than scum play, I think. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:31 Xatalos wrote:Yeah, I like how rayn approaches the all-scum nomination thing. He even warns me not to talk about it when I come to the thread I don't think there's any scum motivation in preventing discussion about that topic. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:37 Xatalos wrote:
I guess it has to be SL.... I just don't see the scum motivation in rayn's filter. He's very "balanced", considering a lot of options and not just pushing a single agenda like in the VS game (lynch rsoultin D1 -> lynch me D2). Plus the contents of the last two posts about him.. What are your thoughts on this? (I have some, but as you were on the failed mission team I want to hear yours.)
On November 07 2015 22:28 Half the Sky wrote:Actually I missed this quote about Xatalos' read on you SL. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:53 Xatalos wrote:I guess SL's position on me and the missions is somewhat unnatural. He first scumreads me for not 100% townreading him at first... But he'd still want to go on a mission during my leadership, and even include me on the second mission if the first mission passed. On November 04 2015 20:35 sicklucker wrote:
Its also not me being biased the chart says were the top 3 towns more or less as no one scum reads us. I know you town read artanis so from your pov if your town submitting that team makes sense.
No one understands the logic of putting yourself in the team better then me but you also need that team to pass and its only attempt 2 of 5 so people are still very picky like me. Also if the said mission passes it would make a likely town circle of 4 people rather then 3 im not totally sure the mechanics but that seems like a good spot to be in. Not really sure what his read on me was at this point? Still scum? Null? It kind of feels like it's a town lean or something already. And then when he's included with me and rayn, I'm very likely town...? On November 05 2015 09:08 sicklucker wrote:
oh i liked the xatalos filter thing. i think we should pass this its very likely 3 towns from my pov Would be very curious to hear about this read progression on me. Ugh, the sad part here is that I could see both of you playing suboptimally here too. I don't think Xata should have had the reads he did on rayn, post-failure, the first two quotes he posted are IMO NAI, the second quote especially for anyone of either alignment who knows the game well can talk about the scum-packing strategy. (Kita did as well and I know I disregarded that as NAI and was townreading him on other things.) The problem here is that when I read your filter, I can actually understand your progression on Xatalos. That actually makes Xatalos worse to me and thus of the three, the most likely scum.
On November 07 2015 22:40 Half the Sky wrote:
Right now, I actually think based on Xatalos post-mission failure posts there's a decent chance he might be the sabotaging player. Anyone who comes in later today, read post 1618 and 1625 and tell me what you think.
So Xata is scum because he townreads rayn too easily after the failure, and questioned SL's read evolution on him when it was apprently clear. There is no shallow stuff analysis. You felt this was enough to not warrant one ?
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On November 08 2015 05:10 Half the Sky wrote:
ebwop
PPA - percentage play analysis
I need to get to a PC but it's not happening until after deadline.
Also people if I'm missing any questions (even yours Rels) flag me please. Even if I never get on a team if people can understand my direction on things, haphazard as it might be at least you'll consider the fact other people might be Mafia. (At least Superbia understood for a second why I'm playing a suboptimal game.)
On November 08 2015 03:33 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:37 Half the Sky wrote:
Eh, I'm voting any team with Rels down on it. The previous team was definitely better.
Even Rels aside, there should be some discussion on Superbia, whom some people are having doubts on.
Enjoy the concert though. I could understand you dodging questions when you were working super hard during the week. I can even confirm that is true. But two days ago, then yesterday, I asked you the same question, and I find it super hard to believe you missed it two times when you're free now. So, if only to ease me, can you answer ? Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:18 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:10 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I know I said sicklucker was the most likely since he was the "least town" but I think especially because the first mission (!!!) failed, it really might be worth our while to tinfoil rayn and Xatalos to make sure we didn't miss anything. Can you explain this ? On November 06 2015 18:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote:
Ah got it James. <3
I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know.
And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. That doesn't make sense. If SL is mafia and "suck it up and pass" the team, then he didn't "suck it up", he voted "yes" to a team with a scum in it. You seem to assume: - SL is town, since you're wondering whether 2 or 3 mafias voted against it, so it has to be a clean team - SL is mafia, since he could have suck it up and pass Or is there another logical explanation for this post ? 'cause I'm not seeing it
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On November 08 2015 05:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 04:05 Rels wrote:On November 08 2015 02:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I would like you to tell us why i am mafia. I'm not that sure anymore, but here is my problems with your play: - your read on me is not logical. I understand that's OMGUS that I will let that pass EXCEPT that post where you say my play here is "boring" and comparing my town play to my noobking push. I've explained in length why it is not true, and you should have known that. - you're leading the thread, and that scares me. The first team included you; the second team was a suggestion of you (?) or at least a team you were OK with; and that Arta's team is a straigth up order from you. - you were part of a failure team; you voted YES to this failure team. - Arta putting a scumread of his in his nomination is super scummy; if you're scum, you're scum with Arta, and that's why he's listening to you. Why are you townreading the guy ? can you see why this is super bad? none of the reasons you point out here actually make me mafia.
Except it does. Everyone is talking about how good your scum game is. If you're scum, you're playing the perfect game; failed mission 1, but still being townread by quite a few people. I accepted being scumread for reason like "Rels is not so bad to scumread me with this stupid meta read; therefore he's scum". But your "boring" case on me was super forced.
And you didn't answer the crucial part. Why is Arta town ? The guy scumreads me for no reason, then puts me in his team because you asked him to.
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On November 08 2015 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
last game you literally scumread a top townie because they made a really fucking good case on scum. you managed to ignore that case and instead thought the person who made the case is mafia. think for a while.
please.
Except not. She was in the "never scumread her" part at EON1 for exactly that. Then other stuff happened; I definitely didn't scumread her for that case. The case was good; I clearly stated I would have pushed Eversince if scott wasn't so scummy.
And since you're playing the "remember how you sucked in that game" card, think about your play. As town, you always make people mislynch bad townie just because bad = scum for you. Sometimes it's true, and sometimes there is no possible scum motivation behind the play. So think about it: if Shockey is scum, he's playing to lose.
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On November 08 2015 05:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i am not giving you options.
shape up or get scumread.
you'll hear about this post-game if you are town.
If you're town, let's make a bet. The one with the better reads right now wins; the other will have to praise how much of a French resistance god the winner is. Excluding you and me, I think we only completely differ in Shockey / Arta right ?
(hint: the other is you)
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On November 08 2015 04:28 Rels wrote:
I think the scum team is HTS / Arta / XX. XX being one of Xata / rayn / SL.
I have a hard time seeing HTS and rayn together; it's possible but unlikely, especially given rayn's view on bussing in this setup. I also have a hard time seeing HTS and Xata together, seeing how HTS just attacked Xata. So SL is the most likely.
The thing is Arta / rayn makes some sense. No hesitation to call the other town; and Artanis accepting a team rayn suggests that contains one of his scumread. If I'm wrong on HTS, the team is rayn / Arta / (Xata or Superbia). The third member is a problem; Xata being scum would mean two scums in the team which is subobtimal; and Superbia voted NO to the damn team.
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On November 08 2015 03:28 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Artanis i would really like you to swap me with Rels. I think Rels has a good chance of being scum though. I'd feel more comfortable with about anyone else but Shockeyy and probably sicklucker (though I'm not entirely convinced it's sicklucker over Xata) IT doesn't even matter if the team gets yay'd or not. It forces sicklucker to give actual reads (as now he is just hiding behind "i will nay everything with Xata/rayn in it") and we'll hear something new from Shockeyy unless he wants that team to go on a mission. Basically if i am on the mission two of the people i think are mafia have a bullshit reason to downvote it and continue saying nothing on other people. Hmmmm It seems very risky though. And I don't like the idea of nominating a team I think likely has a spy. Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 22:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 07 2015 22:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 07 2015 22:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
If there is 1 scum in you/xata/sl, and I think there likely is, that means there's 2 scum in Rels/HtS/Shockeyy/Superbia/Kita and I have to select the exact 3 townies from the 5. That seems like a much harder task than selecting the player I have a strong townread on from the mission that failed. I know but the current concensus seems to be only to talk about people who are nominated atm. You can change your mind, but let's see what those people have to say about the team i proposed. Okay, fair enough. I have a concert tonight though so my final team will probably be submitted around like 17:45 GMT (+00:00) unless I read enough on mobile to change my mind by the end of it. ##Nominate Artanis[Xp], Rels, kitaman27, Superbia THAT DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE 1 - unless I missed it, you didn't explain why you thought I was scum 2 - you're nominating a team that you think will fail just because rayn told you ? The only explanation I see is that you're scum trying to pass a failure team, put the blame on me (Haha I told you so!) and on rayn (but rayn told me to do that!).
Can you explain what is the town motivation behind Arta's nomination ?
I also checked #1 and his read evolution on me is not displayed in thread. See my big post last page.
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On November 08 2015 06:28 Xatalos wrote:
Hm Rels... So your suggested most likely scumteam is HTS/Artanis/SL? How do you townread shockeyy over all of them?
On November 06 2015 21:38 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 21:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:18 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 20:56 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
[quote]
So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not.
I think you may be on to something here. You're a little shit =D ![[image loading]](http://qc.createdebate.com/img/blog_article_images/disagreement-hierarchy.jpg) Thanks for playing! Pretty cool (= I'm picturing you with your folder of "funny and town-looking images", waiting for the perfect opportunity to post one Is that an indirect way of calling me mafia? No. Did you feel attacked by that post ? The way you phrased it made me think you were scumreading me, yes. Generally people don't feel the need to specify "town-looking images" when they're talking about people they are in fact townreading. It's pretty obvious it was a joke though. Given the fact that you've been dancing around my alignment for a while now I didn't find it a very obvious joke, but very well. Talk to me about Shockeyy. You seem to be one of the only people townreading him. First, his play makes no sense for scum. His scumreads are the two most townread people this game, and he's keeping them since the beginning of the game; and I think he might be right on rayn. This has transformed him into someone whom nobody listens to and nobody picks in their team. If that guy is mafia, he's playing to lose the game. Second, he has this idea of solving the game that guides his posts and votes; trapping one scum with two townies so we can ignore that guy forever. That's obviously not a great idea, since scum doesn't really care about being ignored if he has made a mission failed; but the fact that he is believing it so hard makes him town in my eyes, even though the idea itself is bad.
+ he's part of the NO crew.
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On November 08 2015 06:40 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 06:34 Rels wrote:On November 08 2015 06:28 Xatalos wrote:
Hm Rels... So your suggested most likely scumteam is HTS/Artanis/SL? How do you townread shockeyy over all of them? On November 06 2015 21:38 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:28 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 21:18 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:[quote] Thanks for playing! Pretty cool (= I'm picturing you with your folder of "funny and town-looking images", waiting for the perfect opportunity to post one Is that an indirect way of calling me mafia? No. Did you feel attacked by that post ? The way you phrased it made me think you were scumreading me, yes. Generally people don't feel the need to specify "town-looking images" when they're talking about people they are in fact townreading. It's pretty obvious it was a joke though. Given the fact that you've been dancing around my alignment for a while now I didn't find it a very obvious joke, but very well. Talk to me about Shockeyy. You seem to be one of the only people townreading him. First, his play makes no sense for scum. His scumreads are the two most townread people this game, and he's keeping them since the beginning of the game; and I think he might be right on rayn. This has transformed him into someone whom nobody listens to and nobody picks in their team. If that guy is mafia, he's playing to lose the game. Second, he has this idea of solving the game that guides his posts and votes; trapping one scum with two townies so we can ignore that guy forever. That's obviously not a great idea, since scum doesn't really care about being ignored if he has made a mission failed; but the fact that he is believing it so hard makes him town in my eyes, even though the idea itself is bad. + he's part of the NO crew. I'll admit that the NO vote makes him townier, but pushing a bad idea? >.> He seems generally pretty clueless so I don't think him pushing me/rayn makes him town especially if we're both town.. That just gives an easy excuse to vote against an all-town team if needed?
Wow you're the third person I have this discussion with: Arta, rayn, now you. Coincidence ?
I think his play makes him super unlikely to be part of any team, so it's suicidal => no scum motivation to play like that. I'm like super tired of talking about shockey actually, it's not like he's part of the submited team. What do you think of Arta scumreading me but nominating me in his team ?
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On November 08 2015 10:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i am voting yes and rels should have no objection. :p
Did you read any of what I wrote ?
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On November 08 2015 11:55 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2015 05:38 Rels wrote:On November 08 2015 05:10 Half the Sky wrote:
ebwop
PPA - percentage play analysis
I need to get to a PC but it's not happening until after deadline.
Also people if I'm missing any questions (even yours Rels) flag me please. Even if I never get on a team if people can understand my direction on things, haphazard as it might be at least you'll consider the fact other people might be Mafia. (At least Superbia understood for a second why I'm playing a suboptimal game.) On November 08 2015 03:33 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 22:37 Half the Sky wrote:
Eh, I'm voting any team with Rels down on it. The previous team was definitely better.
Even Rels aside, there should be some discussion on Superbia, whom some people are having doubts on.
Enjoy the concert though. I could understand you dodging questions when you were working super hard during the week. I can even confirm that is true. But two days ago, then yesterday, I asked you the same question, and I find it super hard to believe you missed it two times when you're free now. So, if only to ease me, can you answer ? On November 07 2015 09:18 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:10 Half the Sky wrote:
Alright, I know I said sicklucker was the most likely since he was the "least town" but I think especially because the first mission (!!!) failed, it really might be worth our while to tinfoil rayn and Xatalos to make sure we didn't miss anything. Can you explain this ? On November 06 2015 18:22 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote:
Ah got it James. <3
I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know.
And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. That doesn't make sense. If SL is mafia and "suck it up and pass" the team, then he didn't "suck it up", he voted "yes" to a team with a scum in it. You seem to assume: - SL is town, since you're wondering whether 2 or 3 mafias voted against it, so it has to be a clean team - SL is mafia, since he could have suck it up and pass Or is there another logical explanation for this post ? 'cause I'm not seeing it So I saw this. I'll be honest, from this I actually cannot tell what you are asking, - I think you are asking me to make sense of why I think SL is sucking it up? I'll start by clarifying my statement. The "smart enough to suck it up and pass" comment was in relation to the fact that in RL resistance most three-person teams (mission 1) pass, based on my previous assumption that that three-person team was town and even with the conventional strategy that a scum would not want to give themselves away by failing the first mission. A scum SL (or scum anyone) would in theory be reluctant to pass that team. That comment was made BEFORE the mission failed. See page 67 of the game, and this was as Xatalos was talking about the no votes being scum votes. And that I was townreading xata/rayn at the time and making the assumption at that time the "least town" in sicklucker was mafia. (Posts 1334/1336) That was not in any way related to post-mission failure. If you read the comment in context on page 67, it should make more sense.
That's why it sucks to answer a question so long after  the question was made just after your list, during the phase before the failure reveal, whatever the name of the the phase is.
So I reformulate: if sl is mafia in this theory, why do you say at least 2 mafias were against the vote ?
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EPT
