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I guess I'll refrain from further thoughts as well then. In case rayn or SL managed to fool me, wouldn't really make sense to make the decision easier.
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On November 06 2015 21:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2015 20:56 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:45 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:42 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:25 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:15 Rels wrote:On November 06 2015 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On November 06 2015 19:08 Rels wrote:
[quote]
Thinking about the different possible scenarios that could happen from that vote pattern, regardless of what I think of the players myself, so it's easier to understand what's going on when we get the result. I just don't really get why you're going into scenario's where you'll never be able to discern which is which though. Like I said; being "unlikely" that they'd pass a mission with a mafia in it only to follow it up with the fact that it is possible You list the possible scenarios, but I'm pretty sure everyone's already figured that if the 3-person mission passes and the 4-person mission fails, it is in fact possible for one of the people in the 3-person mission to still be a spy. Cause I want it to be clear in my head. And that worked; I discovered that if success-then-fail happened, determining your alignment via behaviour will solve a big part of the game. Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it? Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. So, your analysis decided that if a 3-player team passes and a 4-player team fails, we need behaviour and vote analysis to determine whether the 4th player is scum or town, and thus decide whether the 3-player team is clean or not. I think you may be on to something here. You're a little shit =D ![[image loading]](http://qc.createdebate.com/img/blog_article_images/disagreement-hierarchy.jpg) Thanks for playing!
Gotta save this picture though  hahaha
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Looks like we'll get to soon play Artanis([Xp]) in Legacy of the Void
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That was ballsy >.> Especially if SL is scum...
But I still think rayn is town, so it pretty much has to be SL... Quite doubt it would be both. Wouldn't make much sense for scum rayn to embrace scum SL as the third member then...
I'll have to relook at them both though...
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On November 07 2015 08:35 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:33 Xatalos wrote:
That was ballsy >.> Especially if SL is scum...
But I still think rayn is town, so it pretty much has to be SL... Quite doubt it would be both. Wouldn't make much sense for scum rayn to embrace scum SL as the third member then...
I'll have to relook at them both though... Are you using morse code or something?
What? lol :D
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Yeah I don't think 2 scum being on a mission is generally that unlikely. It's just that rayn is quite likely town in this game and seems even more unlikely that he would be scum with SL.
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I guess SL's position on me and the missions is somewhat unnatural. He first scumreads me for not 100% townreading him at first... But he'd still want to go on a mission during my leadership, and even include me on the second mission if the first mission passed.
On November 04 2015 20:35 sicklucker wrote:
Its also not me being biased the chart says were the top 3 towns more or less as no one scum reads us. I know you town read artanis so from your pov if your town submitting that team makes sense.
No one understands the logic of putting yourself in the team better then me but you also need that team to pass and its only attempt 2 of 5 so people are still very picky like me. Also if the said mission passes it would make a likely town circle of 4 people rather then 3 im not totally sure the mechanics but that seems like a good spot to be in.
Not really sure what his read on me was at this point? Still scum? Null? It kind of feels like it's a town lean or something already.
And then when he's included with me and rayn, I'm very likely town...?
On November 05 2015 09:08 sicklucker wrote:
oh i liked the xatalos filter thing. i think we should pass this its very likely 3 towns from my pov
Would be very curious to hear about this read progression on me.
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On November 07 2015 08:56 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:53 Xatalos wrote:I guess SL's position on me and the missions is somewhat unnatural. He first scumreads me for not 100% townreading him at first... But he'd still want to go on a mission during my leadership, and even include me on the second mission if the first mission passed. On November 04 2015 20:35 sicklucker wrote:
Its also not me being biased the chart says were the top 3 towns more or less as no one scum reads us. I know you town read artanis so from your pov if your town submitting that team makes sense.
No one understands the logic of putting yourself in the team better then me but you also need that team to pass and its only attempt 2 of 5 so people are still very picky like me. Also if the said mission passes it would make a likely town circle of 4 people rather then 3 im not totally sure the mechanics but that seems like a good spot to be in. Not really sure what his read on me was at this point? Still scum? Null? It kind of feels like it's a town lean or something already. And then when he's included with me and rayn, I'm very likely town...? On November 05 2015 09:08 sicklucker wrote:
oh i liked the xatalos filter thing. i think we should pass this its very likely 3 towns from my pov Would be very curious to hear about this read progression on me. Why wasn't this a concern when you chose to nominate him?
He didn't really call me town until the team was already chosen... That's the oddest part in his filter, I think. Maybe I should have reconsidered voting NO at that point, but I kind of felt like we had just formed a nice towncircle at that point. Clearly that's not the case, so maybe his switch was scum-motivated. Hard to say because he didn't really talk much about his read on me.
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On November 07 2015 08:58 sicklucker wrote:
YOU ASS HATS IMA GET YOU
Could you explain how your read on me progressed throughout the game?
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HTS: I'll have to read through rayn's filter personally, but I don't think that first point is a scummy thing at least. There are good reasons to put the scumteam on a mission nomination. It puts a lot of pressure on them, forces them to vote against each other in the future (unless they want to scumclaim directly, which is also nice). There are also a couple of reasons related to scum strategy that I wouldn't want to talk about openly.
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On November 07 2015 08:43 Half the Sky wrote:Second point is the conflicting read on Superbia where he was nitpicking Xatalos over scum being at a disadvantage (paraphrasing) whereas Kita took the opposite position on this. Saying that Superbia was stretching it. Does it make sense for a town rayn to read Superbia that way? That's probably the first question to think hard on. We all know that when rayn is town, he's nitpicky over semantics. As mafia....I honestly don't remember. I know the rage level is the same, the last mafia game I recall (TL LXX before he replaced out) I don't recall a lot of nitpicking but I might need to refresh my memory, that game was in March. Ugh. Does anyone else recall any notable rayn scum games where he was close to replicate town play? First wave of reads: Show nested quote +On November 02 2015 18:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:Okay i am gonna stop this conversation now as it's waste of time. I think both of Superbia and Xatalos are town. I don't see any reason to think otherwise. Artanis and sicklucker said nothing alignemnt indicative. Rels and kitaman are suspicious. Rels because he is refusing to read people. kitaman because he is talking about setup which is a big no-no in this game unless you are scum and want to give advice to your teammates, like "this is something i would not recommend to do". And that's all he said, except for; I'd say people stating that they are happy that they didn't roll mafia typically increases their chances of being mafia, though I don't know if that actually holds true. So; "I think people who claim town are more likely to be scum, but i don't really know if that's true" hmmm... what?!?!
Could you explain this point better? I don't really get it. Something meta-related?
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Mehh... I guess there's the very slight argument against rayn that he so easily townread Superbia when I got the opposite impression from the events... I just kind of don't think rayn would go out of his way to townread Superbia in that situation as scum, no matter what Superbia is. From what I remember, he scumread very aggressively in the VS game as scum (for not-so-good reasons as well), but didn't have many townreads at all. Meanwhile in the last Vanilla game as town he gave away townreads very easily (especially the townreads to me, Vivax and ritoky right away). So this basically falls more into his town play than scum play, I think.
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Yeah, I like how rayn approaches the all-scum nomination thing. He even warns me not to talk about it when I come to the thread I don't think there's any scum motivation in preventing discussion about that topic.
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I guess it has to be SL.... I just don't see the scum motivation in rayn's filter. He's very "balanced", considering a lot of options and not just pushing a single agenda like in the VS game (lynch rsoultin D1 -> lynch me D2). Plus the contents of the last two posts about him..
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On November 07 2015 09:29 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:25 Xatalos wrote:
Mehh... I guess there's the very slight argument against rayn that he so easily townread Superbia when I got the opposite impression from the events... I just kind of don't think rayn would go out of his way to townread Superbia in that situation as scum, no matter what Superbia is. From what I remember, he scumread very aggressively in the VS game as scum (for not-so-good reasons as well), but didn't have many townreads at all. Meanwhile in the last Vanilla game as town he gave away townreads very easily (especially the townreads to me, Vivax and ritoky right away). So this basically falls more into his town play than scum play, I think. Thoughts on me after this first mission eh?
I guess you could say *confused*. You voted against it even though there was clearly scum included... I think it's less likely for scum to vote "against their win condition" with no communications or anything in this game, so that makes you more likely town. It's not a huge thing or anything, but a point in your favor regardless. Now it'd be better if you started otherwise indicating townie traits What are your thoughts on the mission team btw?
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On November 07 2015 09:16 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 08:00 Fidei86 wrote:
!!! MISSION FAILED !!!
1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 2
Artanis[Xp]'s Nomination Phase
Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 7 November 2015. Alright then we have at least one scum in Xata / rayn / SL. Then I think we have at the very least 2 scums in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, maybe 3.
I think that's a reasonable assumption... But rayn is most likely town, so I guess that would mean HTS, Artanis and SL would be scum? Kind of hard to see at least Artanis being scum, HTS maybe. So I'd guess there are 1+ scum hiding in the NO votes as well.
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Or maybe Artanis is just fooling us :/ He was the towniest town that ever towned in the I'm a Cop you idiot game and was scum all along. *shivers*
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On November 07 2015 09:45 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:31 Xatalos wrote:Yeah, I like how rayn approaches the all-scum nomination thing. He even warns me not to talk about it when I come to the thread I don't think there's any scum motivation in preventing discussion about that topic. Apparently you missed this (lucky you I just read it): Show nested quote +On November 05 2015 01:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 04 2015 01:00 kitaman27 wrote:
Frankly rayn, for you to even suggest a plan like this that is so poorly thought out makes me more suspicious of you.
I don't like this post, and the fact that you are not looking behind the words at all. Let's break this into pieces: My reasoning for doing this is the following: 1) town - i believe that you three are scum (in which case it makes this the best play if all of you three agree - it just does, as the town auto-wins after regardless of what team we choose next  ) 2) town - i believe there is a chance that you all three are scum, and i know you will never agree to this as either alignment 3) mafia - idk... you can insert your reasoning here because you seem to think there could be a reason, i can't give one, since i am not mafia and i would never do that when i am ALREADY on the team and (heavily) townread by 7 other players.... Now the point of all this was a couple of things: - Rels; i didn't learn anything, although he called my logic "twisted", and i still don't know why. maybe he explains it someday, as there is nothing twisted in my logic. (i am pretty sure Xatalos & Artanis see what i was after here) - ShoCkeyy; i don't really care since he is scum anyways, but he thinks i am scum (regardless of what he tries to say -- he does), so why does he accept a team proposed by scum? Like.. if i was scum i would put a teammate there, obviously, i am not stupid. - regarding you, i wanted to push your reads out, because i was annoyed of you not giving any concrete reads. I know you would never agree to this regardless of who is mafia and regardless of your alignment. The thing that confuses me is that you kinda called me scummy for it, when there is literally no scum motivation for me to do that (i actually did a similar "anti-town" thing in Nuclear Winter mafia (which never had any anti-town motivation that anyone could explain) -- and caught Ace pants down on N1 ). rayn never intended to fully push for this all scum team; it was a plan to get reactions, as proved by the sentence "Now the point of all this was a couple of things:". So you cannot award him town points for pushing something that was a simple reaction test.
It's still townish to prevent discussion about scum strategy, and he's right that there's little reason for him to push this idea as scum when he was already pretty much guaranteed to be on a mission regardless... And fishing for scum reactions is pretty much the main goal of town, so it's not a bad thing to push this idea in that sense either. Besides, it's not just a completely pure reaction test, there are various reasons for why it's good to at least propose this all-scum team (if perhaps not to vote it through).
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On November 07 2015 09:51 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:48 Xatalos wrote:
Or maybe Artanis is just fooling us :/ He was the towniest town that ever towned in the I'm a Cop you idiot game and was scum all along. *shivers* What does Artanis have to do with this mission when it was you, rayn and SL on this mission. That means one of you three have to be mafia.
Just considering the options since those who voted YES have an improved chance of being scum IMO, and Artanis was included in that group.
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On November 07 2015 09:52 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2015 09:45 Xatalos wrote:On November 07 2015 09:16 Rels wrote:On November 07 2015 08:00 Fidei86 wrote:
!!! MISSION FAILED !!!
1 Sabotage action detected.
Day 2
Artanis[Xp]'s Nomination Phase
Phase will end in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 7 November 2015. Alright then we have at least one scum in Xata / rayn / SL. Then I think we have at the very least 2 scums in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, maybe 3. I think that's a reasonable assumption... But rayn is most likely town, so I guess that would mean HTS, Artanis and SL would be scum? Kind of hard to see at least Artanis being scum, HTS maybe. So I'd guess there are 1+ scum hiding in the NO votes as well. Don't know, I'm kinda re evaluating everything here. The obvious answer to me is "rayn is scum, SL is town, rayn put SL to blame him when the team fails." Then at least HTS or Arta with him, maybe both. But SL is not obvious town either, so I'm not sure. And let's not forget YOU are the one that nominated the failing team. If you're scum, that would mean you broke your meta, but that's possible.
Yeah, things really need some re-evaluation... The scummiest people pretty much voted NO and clearly all the scum can't be in the NO voters since everyone on the mission voted YES... Possibly SL could be the only scum in the YES voters, I guess. It still makes me rethink my life choices >.>
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EPT
