EPTI think the team is some kind of rayn / Hts / superbia / sl. Xata and kita are town. I think arta and shockey are town, but I would like to see more from both of them.
[T][M] Resistance V - Section 31 - Page 13
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
I think the team is some kind of rayn / Hts / superbia / sl. Xata and kita are town. I think arta and shockey are town, but I would like to see more from both of them. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 07:22 Half the Sky wrote: On my way home from work. Skimming on mobile. Still at Rels/Shockey/TBD but I know I have to catch up. Referenced to figure out the last partner. Also nice because if I'm wrong on one of my townreads, this could be a good place to start too. sicklucker still not saying much? I see he answered my question fine but I think Artanis or Kita had followups that he didn't answer. Shockey (in skimming) not saying much as a scum tell might indicate he's trying to not give partners away. Someone else had a question for me - rayn? or was it Artanis? damn I hate mobile. If Rels is scumlisting SL though, it probably means he'll be voting down the team (at least based on his most recent posts) and SL is town. Which means the final mafia would point me in the direction of Kita/Xata/Artanis (wtf maybe I'm wrong somewhere??) or he's just scumlisting Superbia to disassociate from him since Superbia isn't on the team. Wow HTS is seeing everything in this game through the "Rels is scum" glasses. She put suspicion on SL ("he didn't answer stuff from Artanis or Kita") then townread him with "whatever Rels is suspicious of him". | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 07:59 Half the Sky wrote: Oh wow, just caught Rels' post #1242 - self-meta is usually a scum tell and especially for a player of his calibre (decent mafia play). Wouldn't buy that one for a second. Self-meta as in he's aware and he easily has the ability to break that. Here she's twisting the way I use self-meta; I don't use it to prove I'm town, but to prove rayn's scumread on me is based on wrong things. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:00 Tictock wrote: Day 1 Xatalos Nomination (Xatalos, rayn, sicklucker) Vote Result Half the Sky - YES Xatalos - YES Artanis[Xp] - YES raynpelikoneet - YES ShoCkeyy - NO Rels - NO sicklucker - YES kitaman27 - NO Superbia - NO MISSION IS APPROVED Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, and sicklucker will be embarking on Mission 1 Mission will be completed in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) on 6 November 2015. Suuuuper interesting! With such a close vote, we'll have a lot of infos depending on how the team does. Let's see. If the team pass there are two solutions: - it's a clean team; then there have to be 2 mafias in Shockey / kita / Superbia. Maybe 3, but it's possible one mafia went for the towncred instead if he thought the team would pass even if he voted no; since in this case, he's not on the team, it would be HTS or Arta. Given how HTS posted about her opinions on the vote, I don't see her voting "yes" in that situation when she had the perfect opportunity to vote "no" to a clean team. So if one mafia voted "yes" to a clean team, it would be Arta. - there is 1 (or more) scum in the team but he didn't make the mission failed: unlikely. The goal of the game is to win three missions for both team; exchanging town cred for 1 failure out of 3 doesn't seem to be worth it. It that happens, I think it makes Artanis town, since the plan would be to make Arta pick the same team + himself, fail the mission, and put the blame on him. So if the team passes the mission, then fails the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, it probably means Arta's alignment will be determinent to solving the game; it's either Arta being mafia going for the towncred; or Arta being town on which mafia are trying to put the blame. Figuring this out in this case will be crucial. If the team passes the mission, then passes the next with SL / rayn / Xata / Arta, there are all town and the game is won. That would be cool. (= If the team fails: There is one confirmed mafia in Xata / rayn / SL, maybe 2. There has to be at least 2 mafias in Xata / rayn / SL / HTS / Arta, probably 3 since, as said above, the towncred lost by voting a failure team is more than compensated by the 1 win out of 3 needed. That doesn't apply if one scum thought the team would pass even if he voted "no" though. That's where I'm at. Not going further until tomorrow. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:04 kitaman27 wrote: Hmm interesting. Also, we have to submit mission 2 before finding out if mission 1 passes? Never seen a game work that way. Wait what ? In this case we vote "no" whatever the team is. We don't send out a team without knowing the result of the previous one. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:06 Superbia wrote: There's literally no point in voting yes? Like look at the next on the leader circulation. I'd rather get as much voting logic as possible. I like that reasonning. Can you go back and answer what I've found weird about your big post ? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:18 ShoCkeyy wrote: How can you even tell, the mission hasn't even passed. If anything this "scum team" suggestion of yours is your scummiest post already trying to claim others as scum when mission not even done.... PSH... You swear that a mafia member won't be on a team. ++ HTS immediately thinking of sending another team instead of waiting for the currect one to finish is super scummy. And it doesn't make sense. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:30 Fidei86 wrote: Apologies, host miscommunication. Xalatos, Rayn and sicklucker have until next dawn to submit actions. Next nomination phase will not start until end of action phase. In other words, Artanis has 24 hrs from tomorrow at 2300 to submit team for mission 2. Oh cool. That makes more sense (= | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote: Ah got it James. <3 I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know. And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. That doesn't make sense. If SL is mafia and "suck it up and pass" the team, then he didn't "suck it up", he voted "yes" to a team with a scum in it. You seem to assume: - SL is town, since you're wondering whether 2 or 3 mafias voted against it, so it has to be a clean team - SL is mafia, since he could have suck it up and pass Or is there another logical explanation for this post ? 'cause I'm not seeing it | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 08:56 ShoCkeyy wrote: Yes, but if you used your brain, you would understand why... If both of you are on a mission together and one mission gets sabotaged, then it's hard to differentiate wether or not you both sabotaged it. If you go on solo missions, rather than together, it makes it easier to see if you or rayn are mafia. Obviously you both got you wanted and are now butt buddies on the same team. OK. Shockey, your way of thinking doesn't make sense in this game. The primary goal is not to find scums, it's to win three missions. If you vote three missions with one scum each to "find out the scums", you solve the game; but you lose it in the same time. Now I'm not saying this makes you scum. Actually that's a town mindset: solving the game by finding out who is scum. But even if it's super captivating, it's flawed. You win by winning three missions. If you push your reasonning, it's better to vote yes to a team that has two scums inside than one scum inside, since you can get rid of these three players and have a good shot of winning the next three missions. I think it's twisted, since the goal of the game is to win missions, and finding scums is the way to achieve it, not the opposite; but I see the town motivation behind it. Please think about it. Pushing for teams with only one scum in it is exactly what scums want. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 09:21 raynpelikoneet wrote: Haha^^ GJ town game is gg. Do you consider me and HTS being scum together ? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 14:55 sicklucker wrote: This "qeustion" so dumb I dont know what angle your trying to pull here but it does not make me scum. Artanis/me/rayn is the team I wanted and xata is the team I got. I explained why I somewhat townread xata and was happy with voting. The question is clear and has nothing to do with what you just said: On November 05 2015 23:17 kitaman27 wrote: So these were the posts that came within 6 minutes of each other. Super said the team would get rejected with SL, but Artanis would have gotten votes instead. Now how could you think the team was SL/rayn/artanis if super is stating that artanis should have been included in the same exact post that you respond that he is scum? | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 15:05 sicklucker wrote: Im sure this mission passes but if rayn and xata are putting me up as the fall guy as thread sentiment seems they better be prepared for the massive amount of shit that will transpire You have any post from them saying that ? Cause I had the same feeling, but from HTS: On November 06 2015 08:24 Half the Sky wrote: Independent of the vote, there's plenty to suggest Xatalos/rayn are town, so the main doubt was sicklucker. If the mission is sabotaged, it makes it pretty obvious where it'd be but then that also circles to the point raised as to why the next team is selected right away. On November 06 2015 08:41 Half the Sky wrote: Ah got it James. <3 I'd say at least 2. I think maayyyybe one was smart enough to suck it up and pass? Could be SL for all we know. And that's a really good question to Shockey, Xata. She justified this by saying "there's plenty to suggest Xatalos/rayn are town". She explained that for rayn, but when I made my filter length analysis on Xata she posted this: On November 05 2015 07:28 Half the Sky wrote: I have no idea (still on mobile) who is trying to meta Xatalos but whoever is, the most efficient/effective way is how detailed vs shallow his reads are on people. Not filter length. There have been several cases made against scum Xatalos in Carol and Assassination Mafia on the quality of his reads. I'm not saying he's scum but just saying that's how you should meta him. To which I answer: On November 05 2015 07:29 Rels wrote: suuuuuuuure you don't know =D do your own meta case if you want, mine has convinced me that guy is town Since then, she doesn't do any analysis on Xata, but somehow he's so confirmed town that you have to be the scum if the mission fail. Actually, let me check her read progression. On November 02 2015 23:39 Half the Sky wrote: Actually l'll take this a bit further: Town/Resistance: rayn Sueprbia (will review the TMI argument) Town lean: none at this point Null: Xata (will review) Shockey SL Artanis Scumlean: Kita Rels (will review TMI argument) That's where I am now. Null / will review On November 03 2015 00:22 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, these questions are quite town. I know Rels argued TMI from Superbia. So at least I know to flag that argument reviewing Rels later... The only question I'd pose to Superbia is asking him how he knows Xata isn't breaking meta but maybe he hasn't reached that point yet. I'm not going to meta read Xata, largely because I'd be biased on that - the only games I've ever had with Xata (Carol and Assassination, both large normal) he's been scum and I've been town. I've never played with town Xatalos. So far Xata is looking town... Continuing... Looking town On November 03 2015 00:46 Half the Sky wrote: I'm looking at a three-hour delay for my flight home. Fuck this weather. That is going to put me close to deadline, so I am going to keep my primary submission to what it is now, and then have an alternate submission up ASAP so you people can discuss it before and then I will state what I'm going to do before I get on the plane. If I had to pull myself off the team, it'd be right now - Xata/rayn/Superbia. I'm feeling better about Xata but not as good as with Super/rayn and I don't believe sicklucker and Artanis will bleed town for me in time for deadline or even before I leave Berlin, if I even do. Also I don't feel Rels' TMI argument on superbia is valid, but will double check the rest of his followup. Not the towniest but town On November 03 2015 06:51 Half the Sky wrote: Why the fuck is TL such a piece of shit on mobile? ##nominate: kitaman27, raynpelikoneet, Half the Sky Town but not town enough to be on her team On November 04 2015 21:29 Half the Sky wrote: Work is burying me today (if I'm lucky I'll finish around 2100 today) so quick comments for now. 1 Above team is fine by me. Would vote yes. No issues with any of Xata's explanations on his team selection. 2 I will vote down any team with Rels on it (and almost certainly will be ignoring him as mafia onwards until something to the contrary jumps at me) assuming we are sticking to the conventional approach of nailing the first mission with three town. 3 I passed/scrapped my team to buy more time. 4 Artanis I think you need to re-read my filter. Unless I'm misunderstanding, you had a fear read on me before, not the other way around. my stance on your alignment is null because your RL situation is NAI and I needed more content to re-evaluate you. Seeing as you've posted more content, I'll re-evaluate after work. 5 Regarding the comments on defensiveness my argument is that for someone normally considered a very good town player Rels is scum reading me for things that do not make me Mafia. The basis for his position is actually pretty poor IMO with the caveat he has never played the game so this could explain (if somehow he's actually town) why he's seeing some things the way he is. No issue with Xata's explanations on the choice of the team On November 05 2015 09:03 Half the Sky wrote: With nine being most trustworthy kitaman27 6 ShoCkeyy 2 at most Rels - um, zero? Artanis[Xp] 7-8 Xatalos 7 Superbia 6 raynpelikoneet - 8-9 sicklucker 5 at most (although I'm atm trying to evaluate him on what he does have...) I am aware that Rels, you, Superbia have pretty damned capable scum games so there is some caution with some of the ratings. Xatalos being third towniest at 7/10 On November 06 2015 07:45 Half the Sky wrote: Shockey is townreading Superbia, Rels, Artanis and Kita, scumreads on rayn and Xatalos. Null on everyone else. Probably means I don't have to worry about a spy Xatalos fooling us all, with the third scum being Superbia/Kita, Artanis/sicklucker per this association is a longshot. This also means though I'm wrong on a townread though, and I'm now not sure whom without filter diving. It's one of Superbia or Kita, Rels is either defending scum Kita or disassociating from Superbia. If I had to tinfoil Kita, the former makes sense considering the early case on Xatalos. But now we have some queries on Rels. Hmmmm. The problem is, if sicklucker is mafia, and Rels is using reverse psychology on us, then this whole thing is blown out of the water. But Ockham's razor indicates SL is town, so I think that's what I'm going to hold for now, unless something else indicates otherwise. Random thoughts. Still on mobile, can't filter dive too easily. Pretty sure Xata is not scum fooling us On November 06 2015 08:24 Half the Sky wrote: Independent of the vote, there's plenty to suggest Xatalos/rayn are town, so the main doubt was sicklucker. If the mission is sabotaged, it makes it pretty obvious where it'd be but then that also circles to the point raised as to why the next team is selected right away. Xata is confirmed town so SL will be obvious scum if the mission fail Somehow Xata went from "I think he's town" to "he's so conf town SL will be scum if the missions fails". Especially, she said an easy way to confirm Xata would be to make a meta analysis on how shallow his reads are; she didn't do it, but Xata is somehow confirmed town in her mind. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 18:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: So, uh, what conclusions have you actually drawn from this? You won't find out if it's a clean team or not even if it passes. It seems your entire post is speculation without any substance, other than it being "unlikely" that they'd pass a mission with a mafia in it only to follow it up with the fact that it is possible, therefore not really being a conclusion at all. Why do you expect a conclusion when we don't know what will happen ? I will do a proper vote analysis when we know the result. What I'm thinking above is independant from my reads, so it will be interesting to match vote analysis with reads. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 19:03 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Because I just don't understand the point of the post you made. Thinking about the different possible scenarios that could happen from that vote pattern, regardless of what I think of the players myself, so it's easier to understand what's going on when we get the result. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 19:12 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I just don't really get why you're going into scenario's where you'll never be able to discern which is which though. Like I said; You list the possible scenarios, but I'm pretty sure everyone's already figured that if the 3-person mission passes and the 4-person mission fails, it is in fact possible for one of the people in the 3-person mission to still be a spy. Cause I want it to be clear in my head. And that worked; I discovered that if success-then-fail happened, determining your alignment via behaviour will solve a big part of the game. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
| ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 18:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I'm kind of around but at work. Not much to say until we find out if the mission passes or not honestly. If it does, I'm obviously nominating myself with the other three. Don't want to say too much about it before the pass/fail happens to not give any clues to any spy whether they should sabotage or not. @Rels/HtS your explanations were satisfactory, though I'd still like to hear from HtS what exactly changed her mind on me when she's on a pc. 'cause this is super non-commital I feel. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 19:20 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Well yes, determining the alignment of the 4th player when there's a 3-success then 4-fail is probably important. It just seems like you went for a pretty.. roundabout way of approaching it? Eh, whatever, it's not that important I guess. I kinda wanna hear more from you about Rayn and SL, but I think it's best to wait for the results first. LOL OK said like that it's sound super dumb. (= It has something else to do with voting though: if the team is clean, the scum team is probably shockey / Superbia / kita. If one of them is wrong, you have to be the last scum, since the team is clean and HTS could have voted "no" super easily with what she was saying just before deadline. | ||
|
Rels
France13467 Posts
On November 06 2015 19:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote: How are you ever going to determine if the team is clean though? This is what I didn't get from your analysis. Well, by playing the game. There is no way to know for sure: we'll have to use behaviour analysis, vote analysis, etc. I like having all the different scenarios in my head, so I can see which one is more likely; like if I cross this analysis with my reads, I'm pretty sure the team is not clean, 'cause that would either mean that kita / shockey / Superbia are the scums or that you are scum and voted for a clean team. | ||
| ||
