EPTHi everyone!
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience
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Hi everyone! | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:01 Vivax wrote: You're wearing no pants on your head, you must be scum. It's true, I can't argue with that. Where are your pants though? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:01 Xatalos wrote: The pressure is real Are you feeling pressure, Xatalos? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:12 Onegu wrote: Just got home. Now it's naptime. I am VT... Yamato got you some actuall red bull and some ramen, I'll get it to you at some point. Nap time. Also just saw will be playing with someone from my very first newbie game. Nice. Fun fact: my very first newbie game was with yamato. This is basically a reunion. | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:16 Xatalos wrote: Heh. I'd imagine your question is based on an invalid assumption. And what would that be? The assumption that you're mafia? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:21 Xatalos wrote: What did you think the "pressure" was referring to? That's what I was originally asking. My first assumption was that you were feeling pressure now that the game's started. | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:31 gumshoe wrote: me no play long time / : I'm all pent up, but aside from that, it wasn't ballsy at all. You set the value of the vote. That value is equivalent to that of a hat. Atm voting for someone is the equivalent of storing your hat on a rack. Basically for the first day we all have awesome racks but shitty hats. As the game goes on, our racks will deteriorate, the wood changing from fine oak to base mahogany, but our hats shall grow in splendor. Soon they will be both outlandish and dignified. Not just one flavor, but two in conjunction. Chocolate and Vannila in perfect harmony. Vivax would you consider yourself a prickly dude? Do you think vivax is mafia? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:31 Xatalos wrote: It was mainly referring to the pressure on the votecount tool (with the harsh voting rules requiring its perfect functioning etc.). Well, I'm pretty confident in it after so many test games. Oh. That makes a lot of sense. Why should we lynch gumshoe? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote: Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition. In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat. 1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum. 2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_- 3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health. we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely. ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good) Who do you think we should lynch then? | ||
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On October 22 2015 06:45 Vivax wrote: I want to townread you for this post but that would be a bit premature for a decisive guess. Why do you think this post is town? I don't think it's alignment indicative. | ||
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- gumshoe feels really town, especially that last post. The way he rambles shows a town thought process in his posts. - I don't think BH has done anything alignment indicative and I don't understand why people are reading him town. - I liked when rayn said, "Chrom would be town if I hadn't been scum with him before", I think that statement usually comes from someone honestly trying to read me (i.e. town). - Hopeless' entrance felt awkward to me, did not like it. - Xatalos is town for driving discussion and the stuff he says comes from a town perspective, probably Vivax too for similar reasons. If anyone has questions I'd love to hear them because an uncomfortable amount of people seem to think I'm mafia and I don't like it.  | ||
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On October 22 2015 07:18 Xatalos wrote: Well so far Blazinghand and Vivax feel town. ritoky too? Not as sure about Chromatically yet. yamato and gumshoe are in the gray area. Of course, rayn = scum. On October 22 2015 07:13 Vivax wrote: Xatalos ritoky Blazinghand gumshoe Yamato: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://cdn.hitfix.com/photos/5621843/Grumpy-Cat.jpg) and rayn gets pranked On October 22 2015 07:19 ritoky wrote: town in descending order: alakaslam - lord of chupazi. hasn't posted. looked into his soul with eye of chupazi, have seen truth. blazinghand - chupazitron 40000, nuker of the brown bunker ritoky - apostle of chupazi, still in training xatalos - clicked on filter links | ||
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I do think mafia would rather not townread him than townread him anyway though. | ||
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ritoky I've talked about a bit already and I stand by what I said. Someone argued that mafia would rather just blend in with what's going on and sheep someone but I disagree. In my experience, mafia feel too uncomfortable just sheeping a read and leaving. They would rather jump on something that's easy to call out in order to seem proactive and "townie" (I did exactly this as mafia in Order 66). ritoky gives a textbook reason for scumreading gumshoe (editing posts + joking?) on a very easy target to call out (especially since gumshoe is mislynched a lot) when I have never looked at an edited post and thought "this really looks like mafia". I think it's more likely to come from a mafia looking for "tells" to call someone out on than a town honestly looking for who they believe are mafia. Everything else ritoky has posted has just been filler intended to look like contribution: On October 22 2015 07:03 ritoky wrote: as someone who impersonated BH recently, BH is town until he does something egregious enough to be considered not town. evidence: as mafia - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/481138-aperture-mafia-4-this-time-its-personal?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/463542-cell-mini-mafia-iii?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/449782-yuma-mini-mafia?user=Blazinghand as town - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/477800-vii-titanic-mini-mafia-i-have-a-cunning-plan?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/468053-fantasy-football-ffl-mini?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/461330-noir-mini-mafia-chapter-2?user=Blazinghand we done here? For example, these are just links to BH's filters; ritoky doesn't give any opinion about his alignment. Some people have said they get a town feel from his posts and I don't see that at all. This post: On October 22 2015 06:44 ritoky wrote: bh sleeping on me winning 6 of my 7 games as mafia on these forums made me die a little inside. is ego-indicative but not alignment-indicative. Hopeless I thought had the most awkward entrance into the thread out of everyone: This felt to me like a mafia that really didn't know how to insert themselves into the conversation, so they reply to someone with a joke in a way that makes them seem a little "involved". He also votes rayn for RNG, which is obviously very easy to do as mafia. He then posts a lot, but doesn't say anything relevant to the game. He seems to me like mafia trying to blend in and interact with people, because he's only posting things that are very easy for mafia to post (nothing about reads/alignments). yamato has already been talked about a bit, his entrance was awkward and he's done nothing other than respond when Vivax pressures him. I haven't gone in depth on his meta but I know he's supposed to be much less active as mafia and that fits here. | ||
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What do you think about ritoky? | ||
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You think Hopeless is town too, correct? | ||
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On October 22 2015 12:56 yamato77 wrote: You guys are making it difficult to be objective and all with the calling me mafia and stuff. Who should we lynch and why is it ritoky? Any reads? | ||
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This was from his mafia game here though: On April 07 2015 13:40 ritoky wrote: the eye of the chupazi is being engaged! ![[image loading]](http://content.science20.com/files/images/Kaa%20Jungle%20Book.jpg) hijole! cabron! and he used the same picture here so I think that's pretty much a slam dunk case. | ||
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On October 22 2015 13:23 yamato77 wrote: I don't think Vivax is mafia. I think Xatalos has some questionable parts of his filter and I agree with gumshoe to an extent. I do not think gumshoe is mafia very often (given his play this game). I think marv has changed how he plays (quite obviously). Don't know what to make of that quite yet. I think rayn is leaning town but it's hard to say with not much having happened. Most others are a big ?, including yourself. tl;dr it's been 20 pages and 8 hours and no reads are confident. Who would you lynch between if you had to pick right now? | ||
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For example, I feel like you wouldn't have made as big of a deal and gotten angry about this as mafia. So this conversation might have gotten us somewhere. | ||
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On October 22 2015 15:25 Alakaslam wrote: I was lampshadinf this idea. There is no case in the post chroma made. Also Rayn, you throwing your vote away is suspicious. You know I am unlynchable until Lylo, why are you parking your vote on LHF? What do you mean with this post? | ||
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On October 22 2015 14:22 ritoky wrote: played 1 game with you, you spent all game calling me mafia for posting nonsense, i spent all game calling you mafia. you were mafia, i was town. so i think that's pretty much a slam dunk case. Does this mean that you think I'm mafia in this game? | ||
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On October 22 2015 22:51 marvellosity wrote: not really. i mean you could be right and it's mafia picking up on those things. But i also don't see why a townie might not either. I can't really tell why one scenario should be particularly more likely than the other. So... *shrug* ritoky's pretty null for me basically Alright, I can see how it could come from town. I would say it's more likely from mafia because it's a very easy thing to point out about a very easy person to jump on, whereas town would explain why they thought gumshoe's thought process was scummy instead of just giving a laundry list of "tells" like this: On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote: poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. I'm not as confident in it now as I was, but I think it's still reasonable especially in combination with the fact that the rest of his posts are pure filler with no actual reads/town content. | ||
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On October 23 2015 00:13 marvellosity wrote: on the other hand, i could tell you mafia are more likely to make hay and actually explain those things (which are quite easy to do) so that they have a nice looking post. I'd say mafia are more prone to overexplanation, no? :> I agree to an extent. I think mafia are likely to explain tells in a general way (what ritoky did) , but applying them to specific people is much harder because that's when you have to explain how their town actions were motivated by a mafia thought process. | ||
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On October 23 2015 00:27 marvellosity wrote: but he applied it to a specific person. are you telling me you struggled to understand what those tells were relating to in gumshoe's post(s)? Here's the quote in question: On October 22 2015 06:45 ritoky wrote: at start of game mafia more likely to re-read and edit their post than town is. town more prone to be natural. the lines at the end, the changes between capitalizing and not capitalizing, and some other aspects shows he read and edited the post. He's giving a textbook definition of the tell and then saying that gumshoe did that, rather than talking about why that makes him mafia. Scum do X, player A did X, therefore A is scum - easy for mafia to point out player A did X and the mafia reasoning behind A doing this thing in this context... - harder Do you see what I'm saying? Maybe I'm wrong and it's just a difference in post style but I think the first one is much easier for mafia to do. | ||
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On October 23 2015 02:01 Alakaslam wrote: I mean your slam dunk doesn't dunk me or prove anything about ritoky's alignment I don't see how it would dunk you in any way..? Are you talking about the post with the picture where I said "slam dunk" or the long post I made? | ||
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On October 23 2015 02:41 marvellosity wrote: pretty hard to shake my townfeels on rayn when he comes into the thread saying he has 2 townreads and no mafiareads when at that point i had 2 townreads and no mafiareads and the 2 townreads were the same as mine. I like this post a lot, I get a strong town feeling from this. My theory right now is that mafia have been inactive in the thread so far. It's probably wrong but I have townreads/feelings on the people that have been posting thoughts a lot. | ||
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On October 23 2015 05:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: okay after poe i am lynching into: Blazinghand Xatalos Onegu Alakaslam ritoky i am pretty sure we have three mafia there. I like this list a lot. I would have Hopeless on there too though. On ritoky, he didn't actually make an RNG argument at all. He just posted filter links (means nothing), and then said BH usually talks about RNG as town (which I would argue isn't even supported by those links, one mafia game is a cell game and another BH replaced in). And then he doesn't even come to a read on you. It's not a town thought process, it's useless filler. | ||
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He wouldn't have any problem doing that at all, given that he's done the exact same thing many times before and RNG lynch is by definition completely independent of BH's alignment. | ||
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On October 23 2015 06:54 Xatalos wrote: Meh... maybe rayn could be scum after all? He seems a bit too similar to his last scumgame on VS. There his reads were mostly unexplained and the read progressions were rather hard to understand. He also was quite nitpicky / aggressive towards things that weren't necessarily scummy at all. It's an uncomfortable feeling I got from the last pages. On October 23 2015 07:08 Xatalos wrote: Hm. I mean... town rayn can be aggressive, but it's usually more focused on specifically scummy things and quite "tunnely". Like a bull seeing red and then attacking until it's dead. From my last scum experience with rayn, he shifted his stances a lot, in weird and unexplained ways. It was more like searching for an angle of attack rather than attacking something suspicious. I get an eerily similar feeling from him this game :/ On October 23 2015 07:12 Xatalos wrote: Has anyone played with town rayn in like the last months? Has he become this... "shifty", hard to grasp as town too? On October 23 2015 07:24 Xatalos wrote: Well it's quite possible he may just be scum this game. In fact I'm leaning in that direction right now. He can be great as town. It's like Xatalos really really wants to call rayn mafia but never actually does. He's just kind of throwing suspicion out there about "an uncomfortable feeling". And then he asks people if rayn has been "shifty"? Like he's looking for approval from other people before he actually calls rayn mafia. Xatalos does end up voting rayn, but never confidently says that he's mafia or even probable mafia. Just non-committal "he just may be scum" and "uncomfortable feelings". What Xatalos calls "shifty" and "unexplained read changes" really is just that rayn flipped his read on ritoky (and maybe his Hopeless read?). Why doesn't he just say that then? Why ask "has town rayn been shifty?" when you could ask "does town rayn flip reads?" The first one paints rayn in a much worse light, but the second one is much clearer and more accurate to what's going on. In addition, I honestly don't see how flipping a read is even a scum trait. Mafia don't do 180s on their reads for no reason, but town will totally 180 on reads if they reevaluate and think that they used to be wrong. As scum it's so so easy to just stick to your reads no matter what and not have to deal with the suspicion of switching them. It's possible that a townie just disagrees with me on this, but I don't think it's at all accurate to categorize it as "searching for an angle of attack". And I don't think it's at all a reasonable reason for a vote. These just gave me a really bad feeling. It felt like he's trying to throw suspicion onto rayn without actually attacking him. I mentioned that I was probably going to flip my read on Xatalos, so here it is. For some reason I didn't pick up on any of this the first few times around, but it started to jump out to me. I completely agree with what gumshoe said about Xatalos' reads being very waffly: + Show Spoiler + On October 22 2015 09:43 gumshoe wrote: ... while your here what do you think of xatalos? Personally I feel as if he dedicates alot of talk to the rng thing without actually looking into what it meant about Bh. Burning filter basically. I also get the feeling that hes using my lurky history as a way to waffle on me, thereby positioning himself to go ether way depending on town. He eventually seems to settle on me bieng town, but by then I think the general sentiment was favoring me? if that makes sense / : he just seems very wishy washy, which we all are somewhat at the start of course, but his posting comes off as very repetitive and pointless. He talks about the rng vote, but doesn't infer any reads from it, he jokes alot about the rain vote but again doesn't derive anything from it. Hes just commenting on stuff that means nothing, and cautiously testing the waters with his uncertain reads. would also explain his weird early interaction with chrom, someone hes kinda pushing but not really. I'm open to bieng wrong this game, Xata may very well just be perplexed by my bieng really active, but for now I'm reading him as red / : I go bed now. good night : D He consistently keeps his options open. Really, go read his filter and count how many strong reads you see. He has one strong read on Vivax that he posts and that's honestly it (apart from his town feel on BH). Look at how much he says "maybe this" and things like that. On October 22 2015 07:34 Xatalos wrote: Well I think yamato is probably the most disturbing one of those who have already posted. It's basically nothing but empty complaining. My vote might go to him soon... Though I kind of don't want to abandon the rayn train. Like what is this? yamato is "disturbing" and he MIGHT move his vote there? It's very non-committal. If you don't read anything else, look at this post and keep reading from there. He says the exact same waffle about me and yamato THREE TIMES IN A ROW. This doesn't make any sense from a town perspective, but it does make sense from the perspective of a mafia who's trying to be active and show that they're "thinking about the game". I also didn't like Xatalos' opening posts after reading them again. He starts by asking Vivax where to find a comic, and then spends a few posts talking about randomness and the Random class? Mafia often have a hard time entering the thread, and talking about irrelevant stuff like that is an easy way to do it. He posts a lot and appears active, but very few of the posts contain content. Some examples: On October 22 2015 06:38 Xatalos wrote: Why does marv being in the scumteam make it weak? :D Anyways I was under the impression that TL towns have mostly beaten RNG in recent years. On October 22 2015 06:32 Xatalos wrote: Oh well, Java's Random uses the system clock as well, so it's a bit similar, although "more" random. On October 22 2015 06:35 Xatalos wrote: Unbeatable logic. I think I've seen him be pretty inactive/useless as scum all around, and mostly OK as town. I think there was one(?) game where he was inactive/useless as town too though. (This one appears relevant but actually says nothing about yamato, more waffle). Also his townread on BH doesn't make much sense like rayn has already said. Maybe he's just town and made a bad read (imo) on non-alignment indicative stuff, but I think there's a reasonable chance that as mafia Xatalos just threw out a townread without thinking about the logical town reasoning for it. | ||
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- Very wishy-washy reads on everyone, very few strong reads - Similarly wishy-washy read on rayn where he just throws suspicion - Irrelevant first postings that feel like scum trying to enter the thread and seem active - Townread on BH for irrational reasons (take or leave this one, you probably already have an opinion and it's not a main point) A lot of it is also a feel/gut read I got from his posts, especially his first posts in the thread. I don't think I can explain that that well so I would look at it yourselves. ##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
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GB could be mafia too. I liked how he entered the thread but his Vivax thing was weird. I don't feel very strongly about that right now though. | ||
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On October 23 2015 05:33 Xatalos wrote: Well it's kind of like... Imagine player X. He has a great record of posting a lengthy introduction post as scum when he starts the game, and as town he's so far just immediately jumped in and started posting actual content. Now in a current game he immediately makes a lengthy introduction post. Could he have done it as town to make himself harder to read? Possibly. But I'd still take into account that maybe the meta is repeating itself, no? And if you read my posts, it's not just that about Blazinghand, but more like how he was so excited about the RNG when he's several times before said that it's pro-town. It would be harder to convey that excitement as scum when he think it's so pro-town clearly. I'm not down to lynch Vivax; I think he's been very town by laying out his reads and thought process openly. I don't think Onegu or Hopeless are particularly town but they haven't done anything terrible. I would lynch them but I think there are better options. rayn claims that he can read Hopeless so I can trust in that for a bit until I get a better idea. | ||
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On October 23 2015 12:17 GlowingBear wrote: Also, I just went to the database and I saw that Xatalos never had a filter length bigger than 15 pages as mafia in any of his games. Carol of the Bells, for instance, is a game where he survived until day5 and had 15 pages of filter. He has more than the half of it on day1 here. So lynching Xatalos today is COMPLETELY out of the question IMO. For reference, here is my meta case on Xatalos that happened to be right on Carol of the Bells, for anyone who is interested. I don't know if it makes Xata town or Mafia here, I didn't re-read it (lol), I'm just bringing it here for the sake of more information. + Show Spoiler [metacase] + On December 22 2014 11:21 GlowingBear wrote: So, if we talk about town Xatalos, we are mostly talking about an absurd filter length. But more than filter length, Xatalos is a guy who keeps his thoughts in the thread, not in his mind, and is constantly trying to solve the game. I've picked up a game where we played together, it was Guilty Mini Mafia. This is a post he had on his second page of filter: + Show Spoiler + On August 22 2014 19:17 Xatalos wrote: Damdred -1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)? raynpelikoneet -1 Robik made a funny point about the way how rayn would have stayed up as town (and he even said that he would stay for the deadline too??) haha - started really aggressive after that, nothing really special to say about that, just a bit of an uncomfortable feeling with the not posting at night despite apparently staying up around the deadline... and somehow his reads feel a bit too certain/forced? let's just say null with some concern for now Hapahauli 0 justanothertownie 0 Onegu 0 VayneAuthority 0 IAmRobik 1 Casually townreading people etc. just feels a bit towny, probably KelsierSC 1 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe yamato77 1 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town? turtlevine 2 obvious smurf... pretty funny/constructive opening post, townish feels I guess GlowingBear 4 a LOT less awkward than in the Arnie game IMO, so town? yeah seems pretty natural at posting overall, and constructive, so towntown WaveOfShadow 4 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now You see, he is someone who has reads on a lot of people and contributes with discussion by exteriorising them. More than that, he takes original stances on people. Here is another post by Xatalos on day 1: + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2014 00:08 Xatalos wrote: KSC - yeah probably town, really feels like he believes his own ideas and pushes them strongly without care for how he's viewed as a result jat - no idea, how do you townread him so strongly? he had a humongous filter as scum earlier so not activity... and he immediately jumped to discredit me without calling me scum when you called me scum... I just can't feel the strong townread so help me here Robik - not as sure as last game but yeah leaning town for being pretty active and posting stuff you - still not sure, I think you're very capable of doing everything you've done so far as scum so hard to townread you WOS - my earlier townread on him was a bit faulty so I don't really anyhow heavily townread him anymore, why is he scum though? GB - I don't necessarily think he's town anymore, his weird connection read on me+WOS, curiousness about someone townreading him, and overall awkward posts lately don't look good... could be scum I guess You see, he is already giving reads on a lot of people. But more than this: he is contributing without being asked to contribute. Take a look at the nested quote. Rayn isn't directing a question towards Xatalos. Xatalos is posting this because he wanted to contribute, he wanted to discuss his reads. I'll go ahead into later days to show you that he keeps the "solving the game" stance throughout the whole thread: + Show Spoiler + On August 27 2014 01:15 Xatalos wrote: Still weird that he refused to vote for Robik when 1) he claimed to follow jat's lead and jat voted for Robik 2) he didn't have any real opinion of Robik (except "Robik being Robik") and didn't exactly townread me, but agreed with me a lot and didn't seem to at least suspect me. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2014 02:17 Xatalos wrote: Actually I just had a thought. In the Arnie game Damdred constantly asked me these little questions to share my reads more / make me more readable. Damdred's play here reminds me a lot of that. So yeah, I don't want to lynch Damdred today. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2014 02:50 Xatalos wrote: Here are my "condensed" reads >.> VayneAuthority -2 not really a fan of his posts so far, I think someone said that he's pretty serious as scum and trolly as town? serious so far... seems to focus only on survival + made a rather dubious roleclaim claimed JOAT early on D2 "to survive" Onegu -1 AFK and still catching up :/ - entered the game constructively and tried to figure out the game, probably town... Hapa made good points about him being reckless to push rayn as scum + showing suspicion towards a Mason claim haha - well hasn't done much lately so dropped points - rayn flipping town puts him into worse light especially since he just threw his vote on rayn and disappeared Damdred 1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)? - actually his more recent posts mirror my thoughts so town? - rayn made a decent(ish) point about him perhaps being SK since he's a bit forgettable/passive??? and also looked for bluetells earlier... but still not a D1 lynch - worst D1 deadline vote, not good - actually his little questions to me remind a lot of the Arnie game so rather wait and see than lynch for now, feels like potentially town Hapahauli 2 entered with great posts on rayn & me, quite confident that he's town - then dropped rayn suddenly, weird, possible scum after all? dunno, doesn't feel like a good D1 lynch anyway - went on to lynch Mafia GF which makes him a lot more towny - possible SK still considering rayn NK? KelsierSC 3 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe... yeah I guess so - well he's been defending rayn and pushing me with very forced reasons so not confident about him being town anymore (though he'd be very stupid if he's scum with rayn) - well more likely town still, very fearless if scum WaveOfShadow 3 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now - really active/chatty in Championship as scum though so could be scum too - but he's still pretty happily participating in the discussion and felt genuinely frustrated at some point so town after all? - away for a lot of crucial discussion which drops his points by one - well he's come back to the thread and his posts seem pretty good lately - his thoughts resonated with my thoughts around deadline quite a bit which is good yamato77 3 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town? very lurky though which is scummy for him - re-entered the thread with vengeance and has been very townish, I'd say even obvtown level pretty much - Hapa made some good points about him lacking confidence and going on lurking periods though - still (actively?) lurking and posting here and there... gave up exactly like in the PYP game ALERT ALERT - went on to vote & kill Robik though and started actually doing stuff so probably town after all Look at how he has opinion on everybody and shares it with everyone. Look at how he tried to see things from people's perspective. Look at how he has a thought and posts it in the thread to share his opinion with everybody. This is town Xatalos. ************** Mafia Xatalos is determined by suing the necessary, asking questions, and not really having original thoughts and stances. Moreover, he doesn't have an overall view of the game. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Kushm4sta, by the way, I hope you're planning to play this game seriously. I've witnessed several games that you've partly ruined by lurking or worse. If you're scum, you can get policy lynched. That's fine. High level of certainty/aggressiveness, uncommon on his townplay described above. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 07:43 Xatalos wrote: Well, that game is special in the sense that it started during night and nights were PM-only within given Houses. I definitely put pressure on gumshoe and Grackaroni during the night, I'd say. And I was relatively aggressive during the first day, as well. Probably not as aggressive as here, I agree. Do you mean that passive = townish and aggressive/proactive = scummy? Or what? I can't really see myself playing like this as scum. It'd have to be pretty carefully crafted at least. Too defensive when inquired, lacking deep reads on people. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 08:09 Xatalos wrote: These are definitely some good points. It's surely premature to declare Corazon as today's lynch, but it would be a good pick in the current situation. I dislike Artanis's dismissal of Corazon's play as well, but I doubt Artanis and Corazon would be scum together. It would seem risky to make a connection like that. That's WIFOM, though. Commenting others ideas without actually bringing his own to the table. Says something wishy washy without risking himself with his reads ********* Xatalos is playing much more like his scum game than his town game here. This is specific and out of context, but illustrates what I'm saying: + Show Spoiler + On December 18 2014 23:31 Xatalos wrote: Yeah I agree. For both of those the scum motivation is strong and the town motivation is non-existent. I like Templar as scum too, though. But at least he hasn't actively pushed scum agenda. ##Vote GlowingBear This is Xat agreeing with an idea which is not his own, going against a townie, which he had no deep read or strong push. He also doesn't have any list post like I've brought from Guilty Mini Mafia. (Town game: Guilty Mini Mafia Scum game: Titanic II)( (I'd also like to add up that reading this game has been delightful. I can't say how much I prefer a concise AND precise thread like this) The filter length argument is good. But why would you only look at filter length and clear Xatalos on that when you have a whole prewritten meta case you could have looked at? | ||
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On October 23 2015 13:26 GlowingBear wrote: It takes less effort to click on filter than to actually read the case I'm not sure but it sound to me that he is really trying to figure out the game. His explanation sounds genuine in here. I mean, I can get behind his logic, although I don't agree with it. Who would be a better lynch other than Xatalos, then? I really don't see better lynches than the ones I proposed I don't see how that post is town at all. I think it would be very easy to make an analogy like that as mafia because you don't have to talk about people in the game; he can genuinely believe that his analogy is true as mafia because it's a general statement. It just seems like a weird post to pick out as town to me. Xatalos would be good. BH/Onegu/Slam/ritoky would be the people I would look at next for not doing anything I think is particularly town (Hopeless would be too if not for rayn/yamato saying he's town). ritoky's read on BH doesn't make any sense but the way he's gone about it makes me think that he might actually believe he has a good read on BH. So maybe not him as much. Maybe you on there too. Not sure, I like Xatalos much better than others right now. | ||
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On October 23 2015 21:59 Xatalos wrote: Ah, and Chromatically... Not sure yet. He's kept being pretty reasonable / constructive all game, but I don't really think there's been much (if anything?) I've agreed with him on... And that case against me is just, pretty much describing my town meta features as scummy points. The stuff he's saying about me is null at worst. And then I'm confidently scum? I've received a couple of cases like that (from scum) before. Most notably the case that called me a "drama queen" or something (LOL). That was a funny case. Anyways, it feels kind of like those cases, nitpicking null/towny things and painting them in the worst possible light. It doesn't even feel like an actual case, more like an effort to try and find *somethjng* (anything) bad about me... And failing, but calling me scum regardless. Here are the basic points I made: Xatalos was active without posting anything particularly in the beginning of the game (mafia do this because they want to appear active but have trouble posting content), waffling on votes (mafia do this because they want to keep their options open and not ignore their partners), throwing suspicion on rayn initially (mafia do this to make people look worse than they are), weird read on BH (mafia throw out townreads without thinking about why). The last two points are meh, but the first two I think are pretty clearly scum traits and certainly not "null at worst" from any perspective. The filter length defense is the only good one I've heard, but filter length is not everything. If people really don't want to lynch Xatalos, I'll obviously consolidate onto someone else. But I do think I made a strong case and I feel good about it. | ||
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On October 23 2015 23:17 Xatalos wrote: I mean... Posting a lot (including filler) is my town meta. As scum, I select more carefully what I post. Waffling is something I will do as scum, but also as town, so it's not really.... a point. I think my read on BH is decent, do you disagree with it? Even rayn finally admitted it wasn't meritless (at least "from my perspective" lol). Not sure why scumhunting is scummy again. It's not like I showed suspicion towards rayn baselessly. I made the point as just a general point not really looking at meta, but when I do look at meta I don't see a lot of filler as either alignment. Waffling I thought I saw more of as mafia than as town, as town I thought I saw a lot more confident reads on people (posting "X is probably town" etc). I didn't think that was strong enough to post though and the post was long enough already. I do disagree on BH, I think the RNG thing at the beginning was entirely not alignment indicative and there was no reason to townread him for it but that's been talked about a lot already and you could be town that just sees it differently (in a way I think is wrong), so I guess that point is fine. The rayn thing the way you said things about him was misrepresenting what he was doing to make it look worse, and I thought that it was weird to jump on him for what you did. If not you (which is looking very unlikely), then probably GB? I'm looking at GB/Slam/BH and I'm kind of out of time right now but I can finalize that later. Onegu I got a town feeling when reading through for some reason, ritoky I kind of liked his BH thing, and Hopeless I'm willing to trust the rayn/yamato read for now. | ||
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On October 23 2015 23:24 marvellosity wrote: yes, bussing each other is pussy way out because it means you don't have the balls to tunnel a townie gonna have to try meta Chrome at some point. My evening cleared up (i was gonna be afk all weekend and spring that on you guys when i finished work, but my plans fell through) I don't like any of these posts much. I don't think the anger thing is a good reason to townread yamato. I made an unexplained punt vote on GB and it reads as a bit of a weird defence. I'm also not sure that Chrome should be getting strong townfeels from the post i made rather than others/the whole body of play. Also have this nagging feeling where Chrome described ritoky as picking up on "textbook mafia tells" and he's essentially doing the exact same thing with Xatalos. I don't like it. I understand picking up on Xata's read progression on rayn, I think it's possibly reasonable to be suspicious of that, but the rest of it I don't think I like much. You didn't think yamato's giant angry lecture about how he plays town was townie? I think that would have been very difficult to emotionally fake as mafia. The GB thing I was posting my thoughts and hoping you would explain your read. Your post I felt was town because I thought it showed a town way of thinking about things. Maybe it's silly but that's the feel I got. I don't think I'm being hypocritical but I don't think it matters if I am anyway. ritoky felt like he was jumping on something that he could paint as scummy. Xatalos is doing things that mafia have motivation to do. Not sure if that makes sense to anyone. | ||
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I still think Xatalos is a good lynch but I've said enough about that already. I actually really want to lynch BH too. He's just talked about RNG a lot, then questioned gumshoe which didn't go anywhere and threw out some townreads on ritoky and me. None of it would be difficult to do as mafia and it does a very good job of blending in. Check out his questioning on gumshoe which ends up going nowhere, and his read on ritoky which he posts about several times. So I would lynch BH if people were down to do that. Slam I don't really know, he makes me a little uncomfortable. GB I could see his actions from both town and mafia so I'm pretty null there. I would vote Slam about GB. | ||
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On October 24 2015 03:08 marvellosity wrote: Meta point on Chromatically: In Detention (town) he didn't give a single townread on day 1 In Order Mafia (mafia) he did In this game he has given town reads I'm looking at this because it was a couple of his posts on townreads that made me raise my eyebrows Wait is this a real argument? Are you serious right now? If you are town that's seriously the worst meta argument I have ever seen. I get a scumread off of one game where I didn't post a townread on day 1? That's like the definition of nitpicking. | ||
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On October 24 2015 03:19 marvellosity wrote: no, rayn told me meta made you look town and I've gone and looked and I disagree. can you tell me qualities you think you're displaying this game that you didn't in your mafiagame? Your only point on my meta is that I didn't give townreads on D1 in one town game while I did in one mafia game. That's what you're basing your disagreement with the meta on. There's a billion other things you could have looked at and you picked the one that happened to match me up with my mafia game. That's my problem with this post. Like you could have looked at the way I gave townreads, or looked at other games (like the one game where I hard defended a lynch candidate all D1), but you picked one small thing like that and made it the basis of your read. I think I'm showing a town thought process and evolving my reads to the thread, which I have a hard time doing as mafia. Shouldn't that be something that you look for in my games though? What's the point of asking me what I think? | ||
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On October 24 2015 03:36 marvellosity wrote: what's that got to do with anything? it's not why i scumread you it's an observation So it had nothing to do with your read on me? Why would you post it then? You did use it as a point towards me being mafia. It got a reaction from me because a) it's completely untrue and b) it's such a nitpicky thing to bring up. You pointed out one game as town I played and used it as the basis to say that I don't make townreads as mafia, which is a clearly unsupported statement that you then used as a point against me. | ||
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On October 24 2015 03:41 Blazinghand wrote: ... Uh, isn't that consistent with Xat buying into RNG, townreading me, and pushing the RNG target? The actions you've described are like, the actions of someone who has joined the glory of RNG so unless you're saying "buying into RNG is scummy" I dont' think you've got a case here buddy ... Are you trying to say that Xatalos' read on rayn is based on him following RNG? | ||
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##Vote: Alakaslam I think I've been clearly posting my thoughts in the thread and that you should be able to see my thought process behind how my reads have formed or changed. I'm okay with Slam being lynched. I think BH or Xatalos would probably be better but I'm doubting myself on Xatalos now too so I don't really know. I'm probably overreacting to marv because no one else seems to think it's weird. | ||
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On October 24 2015 03:54 marvellosity wrote: in Detention as town you didn't make a townread in Order as mafia you did it's not totally untrue. look for yourself. Yes, I'll take your word for it that those statements are true. Then, in your post, you used those games to imply that I don't give townreads as town, which is a clearly untrue statement you made based on very flimsy evidence. There's no point splitting hairs over this, you should know what I meant. | ||
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On July 15 2013 05:31 Chromatically wrote: I have to rewrite this because my computer crashed, so I'm just going to c/p the parts that hz wrote (without the quotes from Super). Original case is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=420227¤tpage=28#549 The Super Case This isn't scummy. I've already talked about this at length, but everyone's first priority is to stay alive. If there was suspicion on me, my first priority is to remove it. Ask yourself: what would you do if you walked into the thread and there was a case on you? You'd defend yourself. ? His reason makes sense. He didn't have time to do anything more than skim, so he called out someone he thought was lurking. Not particularly townie, but not at all scummy. This isn't scummy. Bad reads =/= scum, bad townies make bad reads all of the time. You say there's no town motivation, but there's really no scum motivation. Scum know that they won't get a mislynch on you, so they have no reason to scumread you. I didn't really understand what he was saying in that sentence. This isn't scummy. This is bad reasoning. Bad reasoning often comes from bad town. If anything, this is overzealous scumhunting. This, once again, isn't scummy. If I say that I want a scumread to post more, that does NOT mean that I'm planning on replying to them. All it means is that I want them to post their reads and reasoning more often. I'm probably NOT going to reply to them, most of the time, unless I have something in particular to say. I cannot understand why you think this is bad. Once again, bad logic =/= scum. Why would a scum player say that they were just giving reads in self defense? I'll admit that this is a decent point though. So almost all of hz's case is stuff that isn't scummy. When I look at Super's filter, I see someone who's at least trying to find scum and share their reads freely. This is way more than you can say for Kirby. On July 13 2013 14:04 Chromatically wrote: Yes, we'll technically never be able to totally disprove the possibility that Stim is town. It's just far less likely. Look at what Stim has done. Lie about his anger Town motivation: none Scum motivation: screwed up the explanation because the anger was faked in the first place Martyr Town motivation: none, far more likely that he just explains Scum motivation: knows he can't explain, so he acts emotional to get people to switch Day 1 from Newbie XLIV, my second most recent town game. Accidentally posted it in that game so whoops. | ||
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On October 24 2015 04:10 marvellosity wrote: your posting a defence of a case as similar to you just giving out random townreads here? where your motivation was literally to stop that wagon forming and lynch your own choice? srsly? okay. nothing further your honour Oh okay I see, both of those don't count as townreads. | ||
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Still town though. | ||
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A lot of the criticism of me is that I'm posting "mechanically" and not interacting with the thread much, and I think that's fair but not something that makes me mafia. I'm trying to put my thoughts in the thread in a clear way, which is probably what people see as mechanical. People have also just kind of ignored the things I post for a lot of this game, so it's a bit difficult to interact with the thread (for example, my whole post on Xatalos was totally ignored by everyone). Maybe that's just because the stuff I was posting was bad and I think that's probably true honestly so I'll try to make it less bad. | ||
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On October 24 2015 18:04 Xatalos wrote: Well, sorry to say this, but your cases / big posts have been rather unremarkable so far. At least with both the ritoky case and the case on me, I don't think there was really anything noteworthy? Not really sure if you even believed so yourself, looking at how you just went along with the flow and didn't really push / develop either case through discussion? I'll need to relook at you before my possible death though. In the meanwhile, it would be nice if you could post your reconsidered stuff. Preferably with the thought processes you had and considerations for meta / overall motivations, not just general scum traits applied to particular posts. Yeah, I really liked them when I posted them but I started not feeling very good about them after. Like they were logically still correct in my mind and so I felt like I should but I didn't really want to push them especially since everyone else didn't like them. I'm working on the stuff now, I don't have anything really to do today so I should have the goods before night. Also I've been trying make my posts serious but everyone says I can't have fun now Guys... I can be fun too I promise... | ||
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On October 24 2015 17:44 Xatalos wrote: Hm yes... That makes some sense. Although I think BH is more towny for starting the whole shenanigans in that situation. If he was scum and either rayn or Onegu was scum, it was madness. Even if they were both town (unlikely), it was just an unnecessary action that could cause trouble for him if a switch actually succeeded. The only way I see it making sense for scum BH (or scum ritoky) is if they were very certain that nothing would come out of it and it would plausibly buy them credibility. That's not even entirely impossible, considering what ended up happening. Still, that seems a lot less likely if either rayn or Onegu was scum (likely). I'm not sure I agree with this logic on switching overall. If the switch goes through and they lynch Onegu/rayn/me as town, they can say "Well, they looked bad so it made sense. Whoops!" and then have a very easy target (Slam) to push for D2. That's not that it makes it more likely from mafia, but I don't think it's necessarily town. If Onegu ends up being mafia then BH isn't, but that's getting into murky waters. | ||
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I've been on team rayn but I think I should have been on team Xatalos. Xatalos is like definitely town now, given the way he's posted around deadline and his obvious effort to figure stuff out in N1. I'm looking much much harder at rayn. I think I was kind of giving him a pass on what he was saying because I agreed with his conclusions. #flipthosereads I want to look at more stuff in depth before posting more definitive reads in an attempt to avoid looking like more of an idiot (whoops) but I'll try to put something out before N1 ends? Not sure how important that is though because I think I might be a bit of a suboptimal kill here. | ||
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I do have another person that I've been looking at and I'm like pretty sure on them being mafia. I'll post something big about them at some point, probably after I've looked into rayn. | ||
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Xatalos gumshoe ritoky yamato marv Vivax BH Hopeless Onegu rayn GB I feel pretty confident the top group is town, and I wanted to put rayn in the bottom group on feel but I haven't looked into it enough to feel comfortable saying that right at this moment. Been spending my time mostly on GB. | ||
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I'll post a full thing about GB soon if you're still alive at that point. I don't think there's an anti-association with rayn tbh (I remember rayn and Koshi completely going at it in the thread in GoT when they were both mafia), but yeah that's unflipped anyway. | ||
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On October 25 2015 05:45 Xatalos wrote: I mean... I think the timing of GB's vote on rayn almost certainly rules out a GB-rayn scumteam. It made the situation 5-4, extremely close. At that point it was still hard to say if rayn was "safe" and it would be extremely, extremely risky for him to vote for scum rayn there. I repeat: do not lynch GB tomorrow. Not unless rayn is town. Hmm yeah I didn't notice that... there were still two hours until lynch but even so it would be risky. I don't think that's a reason not to lynch GB though. I haven't even like posted a case though so this is a little silly for me to be trying to argue this. | ||
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ritoky is like a very strong feel read now I guess? The way he's joking seems like he's very comfortable in the thread. I agree with what Xatalos said about when he was in the conversation with Xatalos/marv, I liked the stuff he said about marv there a lot. I also liked this post: On October 24 2015 18:28 ritoky wrote: chrom seemed mafia to me cuz he couldn't take a joke, and his mafia case on me was "I'M SUPER SRS, YOU'RE NOT SUPER SRS, WHAT'S THIS GUY'S PROBLEM? OMG MAFIA~~~~ DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND HIM? HE SPEAKS IN TONGUES!@?!@?!@?!@>>!" but i am hesitant cuz effort level and actual cases and re-evaluating and blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh makes me not wanna commit to a read on him cuz i am a bitch. because it seems like genuine townie hesitation to commit to a read they're not sure of (easy to just call me mafia or town as mafia). | ||
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That's right ladies and gentlemen, this is a legit case so strap yourselves in. This game's filter --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GB has not been pushing his scumreads like he does as town On October 24 2015 03:07 GlowingBear wrote: Sorry, why is he okay? BTW I'm pretty sure Vivax is mafia now. He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too. I can't understand what you guys find townie in him. On October 24 2015 01:14 GlowingBear wrote: I think best lynch today is BH. We all agree he has been lackluster and we have yet to see him being suspicious of a player. I don't remember him having scum reads On October 24 2015 04:07 GlowingBear wrote: I don't want to lynch chromatically. Especially now that Vivax is voting him. And I've been putting thoughts on Rayn. His flip one is bad. He said it was very unlikely I was scum and that I was very level headed with my read in Vivax. Then Vivax said something about me scum reading him before asking questions, and Rayn agreed and called me scum over the same posts he called me "very unlikely to be mafia". It doesn't make sense. I'm voting rayn GB has three different lynch targets throughout the day (although he spends most of the time on Vivax). GB does not even make an attempt to get people to vote on BH or rayn other than the posts quoted here. Vivax he "pushes" on for a little bit earlier in the day, but it basically consisted of talking to marv a little bit about it and then discussing it with Vivax himself. He never really pushes it very hard. Compare this to his other games (quotes all taken from D1): As Town + Show Spoiler + Mini Mafia Down Under On July 27 2015 03:46 GlowingBear wrote: .:Case on KelsierSC:. 1) Constantly whining about having to waste posts with bad things without actually using his remaining 50+ posts for anything else + Show Spoiler + /*really long nested quote omitted*/ If he is so worried about wasting posts with useless stuff, WHY DOES HE WASTE POSTS TO KEEP SAYING HE IS ANNOYED? "Yes, one person is enough to annoy me", really? Why is he so annoyed, man? "Everybody is playing like shit". No, nobody is playing like shit in this game. This game is pretty concise and to the point. His annoyance is unjustified, it's ridiculous. Looks like mafia trying to fake being emotional. 2) Deflecting any early suspicions brought on him + guilty conscience THIS IS HIS SECOND POST IN THE GAME! This is an unnatural reaction to what scott posted. In town mindset, the reaction I would expect would be "then you're stupid because I'm town" and not "ok, you think I'm scum, am I the only one lol". It reveals mafia's guilty conscience. More than that, and more important, it is a deflection of early pressure. He sees someone calling him scum and softly tries to shift pressure to someone else. If you ask "am I the only one?" a common response would be "no, I didn't like X as well" and if they keep talking about X, the pressure is shifted. The same reaction can be seen here: + Show Spoiler + On July 25 2015 19:54 KelsierSC wrote: This isn't going to lead to anything productive so I think it's best to just end it here. It can be interpreted in both ways: town not wanting to shit the thread, or scum deflecting pressure. Since Kelsier already displayed the deflection behaviour, the second option is more likely. 3) Wanting to lynch me then backtracking when having no reasons to + Show Spoiler + */ even longer nested quote */ The progression is this, for people that doesn't want to read the posts: Kelsier says he doesn't like me and he would lynch me happily. I ask him why he doesn't like me. He says everything I post looks stupid. I asked him what is stupid in them and why does that makes me mafia. He said it doesn't make me mafia but he would lynch me anyway, and that he is annoyed because idiots (like me) are annoying him, but never says what are the problems with my posts. He then comes to the thread and says he wants to lynch "hopeless, clarity, obi and bf", not wanting to lynch me. It's simple: he said he didn't like me hoping to have me as an option for mislynch. When I confront it, he says I look stupid but he forgets it's something he doesn't believe is alignment indicative for me. Then he says he would lynch me anyway implying that I annoy him. Well, I wasn't raising suspicions on him since that time. Now I've being pressuring him for the rest of day1 and he doesn't want to lynch me anymore LOL. He is not annoyed with it. What I mean with this is: his actions does not follows his discourse, which is mostly a scum trait. Add to this the fact that he answers almost NOTHING of my posts directed to him. He just deflects them, adding to point (2) of this case. 4) HE IS VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT HE IS FUCKING VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT. SCOTT WAS THE FIRST GUY TO ANNOY HIM (AND KELSIER WOULD LYNCH PEOPLE DOING THAT)! Why he doesn't prefer a scott lynch? Hell, a lot of people thinks he is mafia! Instead of going against the guy that certainly looked as mafia for him, he is going against questionmark!Tofu. More than that, he wasn't advocating for a lynch on Scott, but opened a range of possible lynches he would go against (tofu, scott, obi, clarity). IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE, PEOPLE! COME ON!!! + Show Spoiler [WIFOM] + Points on Kelsier were brought many times and no one quickly jumped on it, not even Scott, who was suspicions on Kelsier in the first place. The quick and unreasonable town reads Kelsier got points out that scum didn't want him as a possible mislynch. I am POSITIVE Kelsier is mafia. Vote him with me. ##Vote: KelsierSC On July 27 2015 06:28 GlowingBear wrote: Thought process does not compute. You think Tofu is Mafia Then you say Mafia is trying to take people out of the tofu wagon. The alternate wagon is clarity. I suppose you may think Mafia could be there. But you call Mafia people that were in other wagons and does not consider people that moved to the clarity wagon. You even raise suspicions on me but you don't call me Mafia (?), what's the point then? Then you dive clarity and suddenly he is bad? What about Mafia protecting tofu by forming another wagon????? Your thought process makes no sense and it completely fits Mafia perspective GUYS VOTE SCOTT PLEASE On July 27 2015 06:35 GlowingBear wrote: I mean, if you THINK Mafia is trying to take votes off of Mafia!Tofu you MUST consider they are forming the alternate wagon INSTEAD of ignoring people forming the alternate wagon and placing votes somewhere else. There is no other option EVEN if you believed in what you just said, it would make me completely Mafia, and not just something you would say "I don't know you're Mafia". Then other Mafia are boxerfred (?) and PROBABLY A VET? Why a vet, which vet, why not me. Then you simply say you could lynch clarity, man. You just said Mafia was taking votes off of tofu. You can't me town. PEOPLE PLEASE, SCOTT CAN'T BE TOWN Battle of the Drams Mafia: On October 01 2015 04:18 GlowingBear wrote: And truffle's recent posts are looking townie which is making me doubt my scum read on him. So there is that. LYNCH COOL TL NAME. Brb later On October 01 2015 06:54 GlowingBear wrote: STOP Keep your votes on COOL TL he is Mafia On October 01 2015 06:57 GlowingBear wrote: DO NOT VOTE SCOTT FUCKING KILL COOL TL ARGH DAMDRED ISN'T EVEN CLAIMING TRACKER, HE IS CLAIMING HE WILL HE DEAD As Mafia + Show Spoiler + Newbie Student XIV: On September 07 2015 02:26 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting scott. I don't see a better lynch than him. On September 07 2015 03:55 GlowingBear wrote: I really think noobking shouldn't be the lynch today. Vote scott. On September 07 2015 05:36 GlowingBear wrote: Superbia, I'm home but I'm not feeling well, so I'm not going to format it well so I can take a quick nap quicker: This post may appear contributive at first glance but it's basically a summary of the thread at that point and reads accordingly to thread sentiment, bringing nothing new to the table. Why is Rayn town, why he is so quick to give yamato a townread like that? Why just saying I'm "drinking" again, discrediting me? It's a bunch of rehash with an attempt of looking contributive without actually contributing. He then starts to post reads accordingly to his progression on the pages of thread, cluttering the thread with partial and outdated information he keeps further reevaluating instead of just giving his opinion on one big post. My problem with this is that he is again trying to look contributive while not actually being contributive. Worse. He is cluttering the thread just to show "look, I'm doing stuff!" instead of interacting and actually search for Mafia. He is very bold when he gives reads. Calls Nocturne "town" with no back reqsoning when he was suspicious of mage's slot. He gives 3 names of people he thinks are Mafia and he could lynch (sayinf maybe I'm not Mafia an cake is) but posts this: For someone who has 3-4 scumreads, this is extremely scummy. Why is he okay with boxer's lynch if he has THREE better targets and he even ADMITS boxer is only a policy? I see no better lynch. Game of Thrones Mini Mafia: On April 18 2015 05:15 GlowingBear wrote: ... I've already said I'd prefer to lynch a scummy lurker at this point. It's not that I can't lynch SL, it's that I can deal with him later since I have information on him On April 18 2015 06:36 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting loafery thrn art Vote with me Mafia Mini Mafia 2: On April 08 2015 03:48 GlowingBear wrote: Lol Damdy. Last time you said this you were Mafia. I also don't have to rely on meta this early. Again, I also know well your gameplay so I can figure you out later better. I need more information on you so I can draft a meta argument. That is why I think you should be Mafia, though: jumping too fast on the conclusion that I am Mafia. As town, GB not only pushes his target a lot, but is very passionate about doing so (doing capslock or spamming the thread to vote for his target). As mafia, he may have a target but he is much calmer about it and doesn't seem to be very invested in the lynch. GB's pushes this game have resembled his mafia pushes much much more than they resemble his town pushes by not having any passion for pushing his targets and not being invested in the lynch at all. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total activity Here's just some numbers on activity for the games I looked at. Each number represents the page of filter GB was on after D1 finishes. Town games: Mini Mafia Down Under (this was a post restricted game): 5 pages Battle of the Drams: 9 pages Mafia in the Himalayas: 13 pages Mafia games: Newbie Student XIV: 7 pages Game of Thrones Mini: 3 pages Mafia Mini Mafia 2: 5 pages Average town: 9 pages Average mafia: 5 pages This game: 4 pages Of course, this isn't conclusive: activity is not entirely indicative of alignment, and the sample size of only 3 games per side means that this could be misrepresentative. However, I think the difference between town and mafia activity on D1 (even including a post restricted game!) is large enough to make it a point worth considering in conjunction with the other points. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other non-meta stuff One thing I thought was really weird from GB this game are the posts he pinged out when rereading the thread. On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote: /*TAKEN FROM WITHIN THE SPOILER IN HIS LIST POST*/ This post makes me think ritoky is town. I had a similar impression to gumshoe's early posts and it's finally something unrelated to RNG discussion. I don't like this post from gumshoe simply because there are a lot more reasons why someone would RNG, and everyone knows RNG isn't alignment indicative for BH (he has done it as both alignments). If he thinks this something that should be ignore, why putting so many thoughts on it just to say that? I also am not liking Xatalos posts in this game. Xatalos is usually more extensive in his posts when he is town, and he usually talk about relevant stuff. Here, he wasted too much time talking about the RNG and his reads are usually... I don't know... not committed enough? I don't like it. I'm at page 19 and gumshoe is still talking about BH. Argh. I like this post A LOT, especially because he pointed out the stuff on BH. I feel very comfortable to give Chromatically a day pass just for this. YEAH XATA, IT'S A BIT FUNNY. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT??? Shouldn't it be alignment indicative for you? I'm now at page 29 and I hardly see BH being suspicious of anyone. He is wasting too much time with this RNG shit. I don't like it. Although I can't actually call it scummy yet. This post makes me feel better about Xatalos: I wouldn't give him a town read but it's enough to make me not want to lynch him I totally agree with this. It looks really bad. I thought these were very strange posts to get reads from. Why does my post in there give him such a strong townread on me? I LITERALLY said that BH hasn't done anything alignment indicative and I get a day pass for it??? What? The posts from ritoky and Xatalos he quoted also seemed very strange, since I do not consider those posts particularly town at all. This doesn't make sense from town, but it makes sense from a mafia trying to manufacture their town reads on players they already know are town. In addition, I found this interaction with Vivax strange: On October 23 2015 01:40 GlowingBear wrote: Yamato isn't an easy catch day1 by the way, Viv. He is actually very hard to catch because a lot of times he is town he also AFK's and die because of that. Like the last time he smurfed and got lynched. I think it's Himalayas? Theoretically, GB has a scumread on Vivax at this point. So why is he basically giving tips to Vivax about how to read yamato? It makes more sense if he's unsure about his read and is starting to think Vivax is town, but his next list post just reaffirms that Vivax is his top scumread. I think this post is more likely to come from mafia, who already know that Vivax is town, than it is to come from a townie talking to someone they think is mafia. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is all in addition to the stuff that other people have said already about GB this game (usually related to his read on Vivax), which I won't repeat again here, and the general idea that GB really hasn't done much this game other than kind of just being around. ##Vote: GlowingBear Sources: Mini Mafia Down Under (town) Battle of the Drams Mafia (town) Mafia in the Himalayas (town) Newbie Student Mafia XIV (mafia) Game of Thrones Mini Mafia (mafia) Mafia Mini Mafia 2 (mafia) | ||
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On October 25 2015 08:52 Xatalos wrote: Btw ritoky, I don't think BH was ever seriously after rayn... At least that's what he said. I have a lingering doubt that BH could have randomed his teammate (rayn), then went with it for a while and dropped it whenever he could... But that's kind of tinfoily already. Mostly that thought came to me when BH unvoted rayn so suddenly, when the wagon was starting to actually feel threatening for rayn, even though he had nothing better in mind either. I think we are getting way way too tinfoily here. I agree with ritoky that doing anything assuming rayn is mafia is silly at this point until rayn flips. Which, I am not very inclined to do now that marv is confirmed town. I'll trust that marv (and probably Onegu) can read rayn better than I can, at least until later in the game when we can talk about whether marv was wrong on rayn if we have to. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: lol i have read 3 of those filters and i know he is scum. Talking about GlowingBear filters? | ||
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On October 25 2015 08:17 ritoky wrote: so i just read hopeless' filter. here's a list of people he has given reads on: rayn marv gumdrop concerning. Yeah rayn can you elaborate on your meta read at all (assuming you didn't already)? Or is it super top secret. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:24 Xatalos wrote: This is marv's "last will" post, so to say: This was before it: Meaning rayn's basically null / possible town for him, not a strong town lean at the least. That means his top secret meta thing doesn't apply anymore to rayn, at least. And... he basically stopped playing at that point, so who knows if he would have come around to scumread rayn later. Lol I was literally in the middle of quoting those posts too. I think it's kind of open to interpretation because marv was not very excited about the game at that point. He clearly thought during D1 that rayn was very town, and who knows what he would have come around too after he had gotten over the lynch and started working on the game again. He's not a strong townread but I would assume, given what marv thought of rayn during D1, that he would still be pretty town on him. Either way, I think the case for GB is much stronger than the case for rayn. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh yeah you'll have one mislynch then. Go with Xatalos -> GlowingBear -> gumshoe ezpz win So does this mean you agree GB is mafia then or not? On October 25 2015 09:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might or might not tell you why. Depends on my mood. I thought we were friends rayn | ||
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If either or both of you are town, the last thing we need right now is a stupid argument shitting up the thread. Don't do it. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:35 Xatalos wrote: Well, we sure as hell aren't both scum... Sounds like something scum would say... Xatalos/rayn/GlowingBear confirmed?  | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote: Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town. Xata is making zero sense here. ##Vote: Xata What was it that Xata said that made zero sense? | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:46 Chromatically wrote: What was it that Xata said that made zero sense? | ||
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Xatalos is very likely town based on his activity and his clear drive to figure out the game alone. rayn/Onegu, I think you should step back from the game and see that Xatalos is one of the few people really trying to figure out this game. That's not enough to prove him town, but it's really a very strong argument for it and I think there's no way he is the best lynch today. Xatalos, I think you really have to stop considering everything through the lens of rayn being mafia. There's always a chance that rayn is town, and if your read on him is wrong you don't want every other mafia read you've made to be wrong. You should consider everything based on what's objectively scummy now, and then worry about associations later once we have a mafia flip. That's not to say you should stop pursuing rayn if you think he's the most scummy, but don't make that assumption as a basis for all of your other reads. I agree that I am liking Onegu less and less. Why would you ask GB if the case on him holds water? There's certainly no drive to figure out the game. I didn't like some of the other stuff he said today either (suspicion on ritoky and gumshoe, meta read on rayn seemed kind of like TMI). rayn, can you answer my questions about GB and Hopeless? I'm sorry if this post came across as me trying to lecture others. I don't mean to lecture and I don't think I'm a better player than the others in this game. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:46 Chromatically wrote: What was it that Xata said that made zero sense? This question is for Onegu to answer, in case he doesn't see it. | ||
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I agree with BH's conclusion about rayn's Slam rage. I can totally see how rayn could get really mad over players like Slam just being in the game despite that fact that he wasn't as Slam-like as usual. I also actually really like gumshoe's post about rayn. I honestly think a world where rayn is town and just exploded after getting really mad is not unlikely at all. I think he's definitely not the best lynch today regardless. | ||
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On October 25 2015 13:56 Chromatically wrote: This question is for Onegu to answer, in case he doesn't see it. Really strange that Onegu still hasn't answered this. Like has he not seen it because he isn't reading? Is he ignoring it because he doesn't know what to say? I don't really want to talk about why I think this is important until Onegu answers. | ||
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I'm just going to say that mafia is GlowingBear/Onegu/Hopeless for the point of postgame cred. I honestly feel pretty good about that. | ||
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On October 26 2015 06:04 ritoky wrote: i mean it's the best case in the thread, i agree with it, and for some reason it is way hard to get people to vote on GB even though i think 75% of the thread has called him mafia at some point. these are good signs. also he read it and a lot of other things then did nothing. also he was super excited pre-game to play with me and then avoids me. i am a little butthurt about it. Yeah I really don't get why it's so hard to get votes on GB. The thread consensus is that he's at least a little scummy but then no one wants to vote him once there's a case? idk | ||
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On October 24 2015 01:00 GlowingBear wrote: I think it's too early to lynch slam Your argument is that GB, as mafia, would never defend the lynch target like this because it would turn suspicion back towards him. This post is literally never going to convince anyone not to vote Slam. Like... as mafia he's 100% safe making this post because it will have 0 effect on whether people vote Slam or not. He says that Slam is town again later closer to lynch, but at that point there were 0 votes on GB and 4 on Slam, so GB isn't even a lynch target at all. | ||
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gumshoe I really think you're town so I need your vote on the GB wagon. Did you check out the meta stuff I provided in my case? I don't see how you can characterize GB as hot-headed this game when he hasn't done much of anything and his defense of Slam was basically nothing at all. | ||
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On October 26 2015 06:34 gumshoe wrote: You assume Gb is bieng totally level headed / : as a scum player, I personally feel tremendous fear to do things that directly contribute to my death or the death of my teamates. We can deduce that Gb was emotional, which is not impossible to be as scum (especially when your actually in a losing position, as opposed to where Rayn was) off his outburst in thread. When the Slam wagon switched, unless Gb is a tremedous actor immense releif would have rolled over him. To then have right away have the peace of mind to recognize your own powerlessness and do something that directly hurts your cause is something I do not think scum Gb could accomplish on his own, given his mental state, and I doubt he would be coached to do by his team. That and I read him as a fuck up townie, not a desperate scummer / : but thats more a feel thing that comes from lots of games of bieng a fuck up townie than anything else, so its harder to elaborate on. You're kind of telling a story here, and it's possible this story is actually true if you assume that GB is a very very emotional player and was very very scared by the possibility of the wagon being directed back to him and that he would just be unable to say anything to defend Slam for fear of being lynched. The simpler alternative is that GB just threw out a statement about Slam without worrying about it, knowing that it would have zero effect on the wagon on Slam and even less effect on the wagon on him. | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:08 GlowingBear wrote: This would be true if I didn't repeatedly say Slam is a guy that can be better read on later days. I'm sure that I said it at least once in my list post. And I said that also in a game where I played with slam. The most recent one. I forgot the name. You mean this from your list post? This is the only think I can find. Slam (although people say slam is unreadable, I usually can read him better on later days so I don't really want to think about him on day1) I don't really think that would convince people to abandon the Slam wagon and go back on you either. | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:11 Xatalos wrote: After some consideration, I revoted for Onegu. Read this again: - Onegu: gave a high townread for rayn, voted for him over his nullread at deadline when the lynch was still completely undecided.... just this alone I think is impossible for town, he did make an "RNG sheep" vote in a previous game but I just can't accept he would choose to vote for his (supposed) highest townread based on some meta-joke... it just shows that he has zero interest towards solving the game or doing anything... and he has refused to answer several questions from different players that probed into his nonsensical arguments over the game He simply doesn't care about catching scum, at all. And he's contradicting his own reads and offering messed up arguments that he can't answer for when probed. LYNCH ONEGU! I think I'd like to give rayn and GB another day, perhaps. yamato seems like a fine lynch too. I definitely don't disagree with anything you've said here and I am in favor of an Onegu lynch. Sadly, "not caring about catching scum" doesn't only apply to him this game, it easily applies to GB, Hopeless, yamato at least. The one point "in favor" of him compared to GB in my opinion is that he usually (to my knowledge, haven't checked very much) plays like this, with extreme low effort. There's still some time in the day though so we can see what happens, it's possible I decide that Onegu is a better lynch later depending on how things go. Having GB and Onegu as the wagons is excellent though. | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:35 gumshoe wrote: The choice should definitely be Yamato and Onegu, but the difference between them was best put by Marv. people expect things of Yamato, whereas this game is par for the course with Onegu / : both are fine lynches but the edge should definitely go to the guy who if scum, was playing based off a scum agenda and was actually trying somewhat. LOL that quote was originally about GB and Onegu. Thanks for helping my case  And is it actually true that "people expect things of yamato"? I was under the impression that he's been mislynched a fair few times for lurking/doing nothing as town too. | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:37 Xatalos wrote: Like, I went to GB's filter thinking "let's see if there's anything scummy I missed", came out of it thinking "there are scummy traits and then bits and pieces of towny moments". Scum? Could well be. Town? It's possible as well. I don't think it's a sure case. Onegu/yamato seem safer, and I'd perhaps put even rayn above GB.... Hmm. I think the meta points are much stronger than any bits of lightly town moments that can be found in his filter. Honestly after playing as mafia in a few games I feel like making posts that sound vaguely townie as mafia isn't that hard. I guess that depends on what kind of stuff specifically you're talking about though. | ||
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Honestly I'm not that convinced on yamato at all. He's like 90% a lurker lynch for me. I don't think he's done anything I found particularly scummy (other than not posting a lot) so I feel like it's a coinflip compared to GB/Onegu. | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:57 Xatalos wrote: Mainly referring to his meta defense of me, genuine-feeling rant about being voted for and going after rayn instead of Slam in that situation.... I guess none of those are really impossible from scum, it's just that each thing felt more likely to come from town. I love calling people town for good reasons as mafia lol, it makes me feel honest because I don't have to lie to everyone about what I think for once. Rant thing, okay. What do you mean by going after rayn instead of Slam? This post where he votes rayn? On October 24 2015 04:07 GlowingBear wrote: I don't want to lynch chromatically. Especially now that Vivax is voting him. And I've been putting thoughts on Rayn. His flip one is bad. He said it was very unlikely I was scum and that I was very level headed with my read in Vivax. Then Vivax said something about me scum reading him before asking questions, and Rayn agreed and called me scum over the same posts he called me "very unlikely to be mafia". It doesn't make sense. I'm voting rayn | ||
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I think you misread/misinterpreted some quotes in that first yamato case. He says that he disagrees with a townread on Slam, then that he doesn't have a solid read on Slam, and then that he's not opposed to killing Slam and gives some reasoning before voting him. Those really aren't inconsistent with each other at all. As for yamato and GB being together, it doesn't really matter right now. Maybe they can be, maybe they can't, but it's no use thinking about it until one of them flips mafia. I think GB is much more likely to flip mafia, so he's the one I'm going after. | ||
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On October 26 2015 09:04 Xatalos wrote: Ah yeah, I mean, he went directly against rayn (who was losing steam and a tougher opponent than Slam) instead of just voting for Slam or going AFK or something. In the worst case, that could have led to him being lynched... If marv jumped on that vote switch etc. I think you're talking about when him and rayn were kind of yelling at each other? Like he could have voted for Slam or gone AFK at that point, but doing that makes him look uninterested in the lynch/doesn't give him something to post about. Whereas if he just argues with rayn for a little bit, he looks active and opinionated just for yelling at rayn for reading him wrong. | ||
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On October 26 2015 09:24 gumshoe wrote: In between these two statements, a list is proposed to him, he says one player on it he wouldn't call scum, based off his prior refusal to town read slam, we can deduce hes other bieng misleading, or hes telling us that hes ok with slam bieng scum. I mean he literally explains "I disagree on ritoky and I don't have a solid read on any of BH, slam, or Onegu" right? The reasoning he provides for Slam bieng scum completely parrots Marvs reasoning (that Slam wouldn't react that way) Slam later confirms that he did find slam scummy If Yamato didnt think slam was scummy, dont you think he would say that? As opposed to this shit? He also says nothings changed -_- like Chrom wtf? how do you want me to fucking take this post? This is mafia, not a simulator. This is something I think you're misreading, I assume the underlined part in the nested quote is the intended reading of that: On October 24 2015 03:53 yamato77 wrote: you bore me what do you think about them? going back now and explaining why I thought those things at that time is pointless not much has changed As for them bieng together. Of course it matters -_- if Yamato flips scum then Gb is 100 percent town. If they are buds, why would Yamato redirect godamm fucking Marv onto Gb. Getting Marv to go after Gb is one of the surest ways to get Gb killed. It's like throwing A FUCKING NUKE AT SOMEONE. and it almost results in Gb's death -_-. Gb never says much about Yamato, if Gb flips green or red it says absoloutley nothing about Yamatos alignment. But if Yamato flips scum? We can totally write off gb do you honestly not see that? cmon Chrom T_T. So please please please vote Yamato, if he flips green I will sheep whatever lynch you want for the rest of the game. Just houmer me today, will yah? I am a firm believer in the fact that the best lynch is always the one that is most likely to flip mafia, and I think that's GB over yamato at this point. Lynching for information like this is nearly always a really bad idea. And after we get a mafia flip, there will be lots of information to analyze regardless of who it is. GB's flip might not say much about yamato's alignment (haven't really thought about it), but it would definitely give information on a bunch of other people. But that's something to worry about once we have a mafia flip, which is priority number one. This post kind of turned out to be a semi-yamato defense which I don't want to do any more of, because I think it's better if yamato himself explains what he was thinking in response to your case. So keep pursuing him if you think he has the objectively best chance to flip mafia! Hopefully he'll come back and explain his thought process to you and then we'll all have a better idea of his alignment. | ||
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I just don't have a problem with his Slam read. I don't really want to talk about it any more though because I think that's something he should explain more, but it's not a point against him in my book. Comparing my push on GB to GB's push on Vivax is just silly. I have, in my opinion, a rock solid case that's supported by hard evidence. That's nothing like the "case" on Vivax. I think you are reading too much into associations. You do not know 100% that GB is town if yamato is mafia, and that's based on yamato being mafia anyway, which is what we should be focusing on! Possible association reads that happen based on a flip (which there will almost certainly be some of regardless of who we're lynching) should not affect the central objective, which is lynching mafia. Say we lynch GB and he flips mafia-- now we can go into his filter and get association reads from the people he interacted with. I have not developed any stigma against meta at all. In fact, meta is a central point of my case against GB. I do have a problem with unflipped associations, because they're very often a bad idea. Basically, yamato might flip scum. But I do not think he's the best lynch today compared to GB and Onegu. So we can agree to disagree, and I'll push my reads while you push yours. | ||
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Xatalos, I'd be interested to hear what convinced you to switch from Onegu to yamato. | ||
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In my case, I made the clear point that his activity in this game was more similar to his activity as mafia than as town. I also showed how the way he pushed his Vivax read is not the same as how he pushes cases as town (providing quotes from other games). The caps lock post you quoted as an example of passion is not relevant, because that post is just GB yelling at rayn for something, not pushing a read passionately like he does as town. I was pretty impressed at how many insults and condescending phrases you worked into that post though, given that I've been nice to you about your yamato posts I disagree with! | ||
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It's all good gumshoe.The point about activity isn't really about whether he's "active" or "inactive" according to our standards. It's just that, from a purely statistical basis, his activity level is much closer to his mafia activity than his town activity. So even if 4 pages is a lot for me or you, it's way less than town GB usually has and about the same as mafia GB. Honestly 3 games from each side is not that small of a sample size, especially considering that you can see the general trend that he's less active as mafia. It's not totally conclusive but it's still a reasonable point. If you think they're null, then fair enough. I don't think I would be able to convince you today anyway, so I'll focus my efforts on other people. | ||
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On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote: Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town. Xata is making zero sense here. ##Vote: Xata I'm talking about in this post specifically. What were you referring to in that conversation that made "zero sense here" and made you want to vote him? | ||
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On October 26 2015 23:57 Xatalos wrote: Your top scumread is me, obvious town (though apparently it's out of spite rather than scumminess.. even worse if so). You townread Yamato and Onegu, useless lurkers who usually get at least something done with their posts as town (Yamato) or who contradict their own reads and make no sense with their posts (Onegu). I doubt my reads can be any worse. Doesn't this mean that Onegu is the better lynch? Also is anyone (other than gumshoe) voting yamato for reasons other than just lurking? | ||
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On October 27 2015 00:19 Onegu wrote: I dont remember exactly... I didnt and dont like his push on rayn. I pointed out why rayn was town and he said that what i said pointed to rayn being mafia not town and it didnt. Here's the page before that post for others: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=83 Maybe I'm reading too much into it. But it felt very very out of place to say "Xata is making zero sense here." when Xatalos hadn't said anything about the meta on rayn for a page or two since you last posted. It felt like you wanted to put a vote on Xatalos and just threw some justification about how you didn't like what he was saying without really checking if it made sense with what he was saying in the thread at that time. Someone else read it and tell me if I'm thinking too much into it. | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:45 Blazinghand wrote: here are things that stood out to me as townie from GB's filter during my dive a couple days ago: I don't see scum responding to a free vote this way. This is hilarious and fun and spontaneous and probably not what a scum player would do, because scum has to be more calculating. Here's a snippet of you and I discussing GB (edited for some mistakes): which I think addressed my thoughts on the early GB play pretty succinctly. I think this is fair point that I make here. This is what tunnelled townies look like. Is it possible, here, Vivax, that you're scumreading GB just because he scumread you, and that got you mad or at least biased? It's a really common thing for Town to OMGUS people, (town or scum), that call them scum, especially for clearly irrational reasonsl ike GB expressed. Now, we can say ":GB is irrational, and we expect town to have a certain logic" and that's a fair thing to say! for sure! but at the same time, scum ALSO has a certain logic. They're looking out for #1. They're not gonna do this, not after getting opposition from rayn and marv, right? They'll blow which way the wind is going, and be forgotten about. In response to the last point, I honestly think that's way more what tunnelled scum look like than tunnelled townies. Tunnelled townies (especially GB, as you can see in his meta) really push to get their target lynched and to convince everyone of it. Tunnelled scum just stick on one scum read because it's really, really easy to just have the same read rather than ever reevaluating it (this is what I did in GoT as mafia, I just talked about how I wanted to lynch Risen for like 5 days straight). I don't think sticking to a read is a towntell. If people disagreed with it earlier, that just makes it look more "original" when you post it. | ||
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On October 27 2015 00:44 Vivax wrote: Don't forget they could easily both be scum given how they don't care about the game at this point. yamato and GB? or Onegu and GB? | ||
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or at least Onegu | ||
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On October 27 2015 00:56 Vivax wrote: What made you feel like he was town? Are you ONegu the second? Everyone's just calling him town on D1 when I see ZERO reasons besides the activity. Like the only reason I ever saw to not lynch yamato was the fact he posted a bit, but there's nothing particularly townie in there. I felt like he was town during day 1 because he seemed interested in figuring out the game and was posting reasonable stuff, but I've also said that I don't think it's as townie now as I did then. Do you think there's anything particularly scummy in there? It seems like it's the lack of activity coupled with the meta point that he's less active as mafia. | ||
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I wrote a whole strong meta thing and have talked about it all day today and everyone's just like, "actually GB is town because I like this one post that sounds vaguely okay". Look at his total disinterest in the lynch today. He isn't even trying to push a target. He votes yamato, says he would prefer Onegu, and now is voting rayn over them for being annoying..? Oh well though. I don't know what else to say at this point. | ||
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On October 27 2015 02:20 gumshoe wrote: I looked into your meta thing. Your argument that Gb isnt pushing as hard as normal doesnt consider that 1) Gb has been busy and has had classes 2) Gb came under a ton of heat for pushing a derpy scum read(which is a townie thing btw) and had to spend time defending himself 3) by non Gb standards he pushed his case pretty hard, which considering you only have to valid 2 town games in your sample size should be enough to takethis point down to null. I also countered the miscellaneous points you brought up 1) Gb wasnt teaching vivax he was continuing a 'vivax is scum' point from before 2) Theres no reason to give town passes to sketchy players as scum unless they're your buds (you know your town so yeah, thats one point against that possibility), mislynches are scums lifeblood, scum want to create an environment of negativity and distrust, building bridges with lynchable townies is not the way to do that. Having classes shouldn't make you play like your scum meta. Pushing a bad read relentlessly is not townie, it's very easy for mafia to continue pushing one read the whole time even if no one listens to them. Non-GB standards don't matter because we're talking about GB, and I don't think he pushed it hard in either case. Giving town reads for no reason is something mafia do often because it's very easy for them to do. I am so so sick of arguing with you about this because I've done it all day and for some absurd reason you are so so certain that GB is town that you spend so much time hard defending him. On October 27 2015 02:24 Vivax wrote: I have no clue what Chrom is doing. I'm pushing my read, the one that everyone agreed was mafia and yet somehow wasn't even close to getting lynched today, where everyone jumped on yamato at the first opportunity with little reasoning. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think so though. Hopefully yamato will flip mafia. | ||
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On October 23 2015 07:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might be wrong on GlowingBear, what Vivax said makes a lot of sense tbh. It's like GB goes "i call this thing scummy then i ask about it" when it should be another way around if he didn't know the reasoning of Vivax' reads. If he doesn't care about the answer (=scummy anyways, as he seemed to think so), why even ask? On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote: Phew. Finally ended up re-reading. + Show Spoiler + On October 22 2015 06:41 ritoky wrote: poorly explained response, forced joke, clear post editing, extra lines at the end of post. This post makes me think ritoky is town. I had a similar impression to gumshoe's early posts and it's finally something unrelated to RNG discussion. On October 22 2015 06:56 gumshoe wrote: Theres no point to him trying to convince us to follow his lynch. RNG is viable when reads are shit, convincing town to rng lynch requires shit reads. The game has just begun therefore reads have not had the time to develop quality, which means bh does not yet posses his convince condition. In the absence of the means to convince us to choose his method, all he can do is argue how his is truly random. Because a mafia player who argues for an actual rng lynch is forfeiting his ability to protect his teammates (and potentially himself) from rng. A competent scumer would usually have faith in his ability to sway town one way or another, which means he probably wouldn't risk an rng team kill. Basically there are only 3 kinds of players who would propose this strat. 1) a player who is so insecure about his play, he is honestly proposing to just roll the dice instead of play(at least on day 1). This player could be town or scum. 2) A town player who is just using this as a means to prove his innocence "why would I risk killing myself or my teamies as mafia? I must be town!" this works sorta because your odds are quite low of hitting yourself and if you do then you can always say "well I know I'm town, so I'll just disregard this result" -_- 3) A scummer who believes that town will not actually rng lynch because it is objectively a bad strat compared to a really solid case/read. He must hope for this, because to a scummer the rng lynch can actually just backfire, since mafia as an entity operate on a clear pool of lives as opposed to towns mist of health. we can probally straight up rule out the first possibility (bh be goods not scrubs), which leaves 2 and 3. This whole thing seems pre written so hard to tell between them. Honestly best just to ignore the whole thing unless it gets to the point where our reads are so junk an rng lynch is actually more likely. ether way, I dont think bh expects us to actually straight up rng lynch, this was probably just a way to look active early on without actually offering substance (though it might draw substance out of others, which is always good) I don't like this post from gumshoe simply because there are a lot more reasons why someone would RNG, and everyone knows RNG isn't alignment indicative for BH (he has done it as both alignments). If he thinks this something that should be ignore, why putting so many thoughts on it just to say that? I also am not liking Xatalos posts in this game. Xatalos is usually more extensive in his posts when he is town, and he usually talk about relevant stuff. Here, he wasted too much time talking about the RNG and his reads are usually... I don't know... not committed enough? I don't like it. I'm at page 19 and gumshoe is still talking about BH. Argh. On October 22 2015 11:08 Chromatically wrote: I'm back, I'm planning on rereading the thread and looking more into some people but here's where I'm at now: - gumshoe feels really town, especially that last post. The way he rambles shows a town thought process in his posts. - I don't think BH has done anything alignment indicative and I don't understand why people are reading him town. - I liked when rayn said, "Chrom would be town if I hadn't been scum with him before", I think that statement usually comes from someone honestly trying to read me (i.e. town). - Hopeless' entrance felt awkward to me, did not like it. - Xatalos is town for driving discussion and the stuff he says comes from a town perspective, probably Vivax too for similar reasons. If anyone has questions I'd love to hear them because an uncomfortable amount of people seem to think I'm mafia and I don't like it. I like this post A LOT, especially because he pointed out the stuff on BH. I feel very comfortable to give Chromatically a day pass just for this. On October 23 2015 04:57 Xatalos wrote: gumshoe: It's a bit funny you called me out about waffling on you when your entire last post waffling on... everyone Every read had some "but... then..." moment haharayn: About BH, I'm not completely sure how I came to lean as strongly town on BH as on Vivax. It might not be as deserved as the townread on Vivax (on objective merits of meta etc.), I just felt (and actually still feel) that his level of effort and activity seemed more likely to come from town. The way he engaged people and seemed to have really thought about his own ideas... It didn't feel at all like a fake push trying to gather credibility. What's more, I skimmed through all the links ritoky provided and it was a common trend that BH pushed the idea of RNG lynching as town but didn't do that as scum. I think it's a minor meta point in BH's favor, even if it's not like it's impossible to fake something like that... I just didn't get the feeling it was fake. Well, did you? For the time being, I'm happy to put BH in the pile of non-lynchables. YEAH XATA, IT'S A BIT FUNNY. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT??? Shouldn't it be alignment indicative for you? I'm now at page 29 and I hardly see BH being suspicious of anyone. He is wasting too much time with this RNG shit. I don't like it. Although I can't actually call it scummy yet. This post makes me feel better about Xatalos: On October 23 2015 05:33 Xatalos wrote: Well it's kind of like... Imagine player X. He has a great record of posting a lengthy introduction post as scum when he starts the game, and as town he's so far just immediately jumped in and started posting actual content. Now in a current game he immediately makes a lengthy introduction post. Could he have done it as town to make himself harder to read? Possibly. But I'd still take into account that maybe the meta is repeating itself, no? And if you read my posts, it's not just that about Blazinghand, but more like how he was so excited about the RNG when he's several times before said that it's pro-town. It would be harder to convey that excitement as scum when he think it's so pro-town clearly. I wouldn't give him a town read but it's enough to make me not want to lynch him On October 23 2015 06:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: Do you feel like Blazinghand is pressuring me at the moment? Do you feel like i feel pressured? Do you thin kanyone whould feel pressured if the rng landed on them? I totally agree with this. It looks really bad. Basically, here is where I'm at: ~ Town: Chromatically rayn marv ~ Null with town passes: ritoky (I thought he was town but after he got townread his play has been very lackluster) Xatalos (I hate his filter but I could see some townie posts and I'm never lynching a 8 pages filter on day1) yamato (I will never lynch yamato on day1 unless he is glaringly scummy, and I have yet to see something scummy in him) ~ Could lynch: gumshoe (I disliked most of his posts and he even scumread Xatalos for doing exactly what he has done most of the game: wasted it talking about RNG) Blazinghand (mostly talks about RNG and I have yet to see him getting any scumreads based on his reaction test - he said he won't lynch Chromatically today and that's all that's interesting I have seen him talking about) ~ Could lynch harder: Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign) Hopeless1der (useless - feels like his play in Avogadro's Mini Mafia) Vivax (I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated Special ? category: Slam (although people say slam is unreadable, I usually can read him better on later days so I don't really want to think about him on day1) On October 24 2015 04:07 GlowingBear wrote: I don't want to lynch chromatically. Especially now that Vivax is voting him. And I've been putting thoughts on Rayn. His flip one is bad. He said it was very unlikely I was scum and that I was very level headed with my read in Vivax. Then Vivax said something about me scum reading him before asking questions, and Rayn agreed and called me scum over the same posts he called me "very unlikely to be mafia". It doesn't make sense. I'm voting rayn First rayn says that he thinks GB is mafia. Then GB says that he thinks rayn is town. Then GB later says that he thinks rayn is mafia because rayn flipped his read on him. 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On October 27 2015 02:48 GlowingBear wrote: 1) this is shit and you know I can call people mafia and further investigate it. 2) it was in my filter and you could've catch up on this by yourself. Instead you just shift the responsibility to Vivax It is a weak reason to call me mafia especially because it's a HUGE shift from this: YEAH WTF and then here he's saying that he thinks rayn is mafia for something that happened before he called rayn town. If he thinks rayn is mafia so much for the switch then why was rayn so town in the list post he made? | ||
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On October 27 2015 03:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: yeah but that's not even my case, that was my case before more derpp Whoops I'm slow I guess, I can't find case part 2 though? Assuming it's not the timewarp thing lol Have to go for a bit but please everyone look at that and consider GB again. | ||
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On October 27 2015 03:36 Xatalos wrote: :D:D:D Actually laughed out loud. Thanks. In all seriousness, WTF is that latest case by rayn? I don't get it. GB didn't even quote then in the wrong order. First he quotes your switch post, then says "it's a huge shift from this" where is your earlier full townread of him based on the same filter. No no no look at the posts I made at least, apparently there's more but I think my posts were clear on part of what rayn was saying. Clearer to me at least because I wrote them. | ||
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On October 27 2015 03:45 Xatalos wrote: Chromatically: Hm.... I guess, but it's not implausible for town GB to only start thinking about the switch and how it happened a bit later on. I think what rayn did was worse. I mean... he basically gave a full townread for GB, then suddenly started scumreading him for the same posts when the wind shifted. He explained it pretty well in my opinion: + Show Spoiler + On October 23 2015 07:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might be wrong on GlowingBear, what Vivax said makes a lot of sense tbh. It's like GB goes "i call this thing scummy then i ask about it" when it should be another way around if he didn't know the reasoning of Vivax' reads. If he doesn't care about the answer (=scummy anyways, as he seemed to think so), why even ask? On October 23 2015 08:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because i can see how it makes sense in your world, it doesn't change the fact i consider it dumb. That's not why i read ritoky mafia. And i can read Hopeless very well. Probably better than anyone in this game. I missed some stuff on GB, he looked level headed enough for me to consider him town and he is another person whose posts i pay very little attention to at least early on, unless ofc i think he is mafia. But he's not up for lynch today really so not super relevant right now. Compare to GB's justification: On October 27 2015 03:39 GlowingBear wrote: Because I was afraid I could be OMGUSing. Then other people, especially slam, brought suspicions on him and it made sense to me. His justification is that he could be OMGUSing. Do you ever read someone's posts and say "oh those are scummy, but I'll give you a top townread because I might be OMGUSing"? | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:01 Blazinghand wrote: Ok, I totally get what you're getting at here. there's an argument to be made, and it is a totally reasonable one, that perhaps all lurkers are town and all active players are mafia, and we should lynch into the most suspicious active players. And in a sense, I think that is not 100% wrong. For example; I think rayn needed an extension and some time to sort out his rage and unwillingness to play. But there are what, 4 lurkers here out of 11 players? It's almost certain that there's at least one mafia in the lurk group, and there are ones like Hopeless1 and Yamato who are literally playing just enough to not ge tmodkilled (remember, this game has no activity requirement). If I were scum this game, I'd just never post and it would be easy. In fact, I feel really certain at least one scum, or maybe all scum, are doing this. And why not? There's a vocal contingent of people (including the lurkers themselves) who do not want to lynch into lurkers We have to think smarter. Normally, lurkers are handled by modkills for failure to meet posting requirements, or cops, or vigilantes, or at the very least some blues make it to LYLO and claim and we have a narrow lynch pool. We have none of those tools this game. People are abusing the ability to lurk, and sure, ti sounds like they have reasons, but there's no reason scum can't just fake reasons. As scum, I would. We need to solve this problem ourselves. We obviously can't lynch every lurker, since doing so is the same as guessing all scum are lurkers (if 2-3 of them are town, we'll run out of lynches and lose probably first). But we can lynch the worst lurker or two, the ones we'll never get a read on, and I'm gambling on one of them being scum. Obviously none of these guys are gonna shot if they're town. What will you do in LYLO when it's all lurkers and scum, or all lurking scum we're refusing ot lynch? We can't have that. Gb will always LOOK worse than Yam because there's a filter to look at. He could have eaisly chosen to never post and he'd be just like Yam, protected by "well, we can't just lynch lurkers, or we'd lose". GB CHOSE TO PLAY. He chose to play the damn game, to try to solve things, even if he's super wrong and dumb, and MAKING THAT CHOICE, that's a town thing. If he's scum, he didn't have to post SHIT. He just had to let the thread implode. He stepped up! HE STEPPED UP. Don't punish that. Yeah, fair points. I disagree that GB chose to play, I think that if he did nothing at all today like yamato did, he would be the lynch instead of yamato due to how hard he was being pushed. Ideally, we lynch the obvious/active mafia first and then can use those flips to help us with the lurkers, but that doesn't always work out nicely. So I do agree that at some point we have to bite the bullet and lynch one, and yamato is a good choice because of his meta. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Well I don't think it matters too much since we'd be getting two lynches anyway (same as if we just waited the another day)... But I guess there's the fact that the longer the game goes, the more information we get, and there's always a risk of yamato ninjaing Yeah, but we should lynch separately in that case so we can use the information from yamato's flip to help us with the other lynches. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: I think that logically it's better to make sure we only kill one person today though, because we don't want to rush our lynches and not have the full amount of time/information. So no shennanies I guess. I think my logic here is right? Killing two people today is always worse for town because it's just using one of our later lynches a day early. | ||
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So can we just lynch GB tomorrow please? | ||
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On October 26 2015 09:24 gumshoe wrote: ... So please please please vote Yamato, if he flips green I will sheep whatever lynch you want for the rest of the game. Just houmer me today, will yah? Good news though! Although it sounds like this was just a condition of voting yamato so maybe not... | ||
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On October 27 2015 08:55 ritoky wrote: that's pretty much my town read on him + he had some similar thoughts to me on day 1. but the constant rage over non-issues and then that post you made about him being all aboard you and suddenly open to a wealth of options without talking about it much plus him not doing shennanies has cast some doubt on him for me. Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong. I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like: ritoky gumshoe Xatalos BH (almost certainly town) rayn Vivax (very likely town) Hopeless Onegu GB (mafia) The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town. Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back. The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town. By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time. So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far). | ||
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On October 27 2015 08:31 ritoky wrote: assuming you're town. i think independently GB is the most mafia and hopeless hasn't given me any reason to believe he is town. assuming i am right on GB i think 1 of gumdrop, vivax, and xata is mafia. of those 3 i think vivax has reasoning to not shennanie cuz of what i did to him in a past game (could be using it to his adv) and gumdrop is the most town of the 3. so that leaves xata. onegu is an engima to me so i have no idea whatsoever. so independent i would say something like GB, hopeless, onegu. if gb is mafia then sub out onegu or hopeless for xata or maybe vivax. Why sub out Onegu/Hopeless if GB is mafia? Do you see an association there? | ||
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I think they're mafia because they've done mafia things. I've talked about it a bit already, and I said I would probably elaborate this phase. It's not worth it wasting time with unflipped associations with you to clear them when I don't know for certain that you're mafia. | ||
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You're specifically trying to avoid doing "mafia things" the whole game, so it's super easy to say "hey look at this mafia thing I didn't do, I totally would have done that as mafia!" | ||
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On October 27 2015 12:00 Chromatically wrote: If you're mafia, there's a whole bunch of reasons to move to rayn. You're not on the wagon that's about to flip town so you don't come under suspicion for just sheeping the biggest wagon. You get to say that you were active in the lynch and had an opinion. You get to make the argument that you're making right now about how mafia would never have moved to rayn. I think they're mafia because they've done mafia things. I've talked about it a bit already, and I said I would probably elaborate this phase. It's not worth it wasting time with unflipped associations with you to clear them when I don't know for certain that you're mafia. I'm dismissing investigating them? Okay. | ||
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On October 28 2015 03:09 Xatalos wrote: Hmmm.... I guess that's a bit of a weird reaction... How sold are you on this dream team of rayn/Chromatically/ritoky? I still kind of feel like Onegu is scum, and he seems like a safe lynch tomorrow. Then again, I guess there's always the incomprehensible possibility that he's town and just plays like this... I guess he did play a bit similarly as town in that earlier game.... And marv liked him too... >.> I really don't want to believe it though...Hopeless is pretty much a policy lynch... I guess that team wouldn't be impossible. Least confident on ritoky maybe, but rayn can very easily be scum and Chromatically could be too, considering that weird soft defense of him by rayn (which actually fits him more with his scum meta here? - picking a target and continuing to push it through eternity).. hm... In that case I'd want to lynch rayn first of all though. All of these 3 have wanted GB dead so I guess that's a point for GB? How is this ever a point for GB? If three different players want GB dead and have posted numerous reasons for it, it's probably because we all think he's mafia and we want to kill him for it. So the conclusion you get is that he's probably town? | ||
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That's why I didn't ask GB for reads or his top lynches or anything when I was talking to him. If I ask him and he does it, I don't learn anything about his alignment. What matters is if he does it when I don't tell him what he should do. | ||
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I really do not understand why you and Vivax are so resistant to lynching him. Me, ritoky, and rayn have all posted very good points about why we should and it didn't even come close to happening, and it looks like it might not happen again. gumshoe attempted to "tear my case down" but his reasons didn't even address my case. | ||
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On October 28 2015 03:42 Xatalos wrote: I thought ritoky was highly town early on... Now he's somewhat dropped off the radar and I can't even remember anything he did D2...? As for you, I agree you've posted a lot and there's a lot of decent reasoning, but if GB is town, it would mean that you've spent almost all of your effort on pushing first me (town) and then GB (town).... Which then kind of makes it sensible to see what GB is first, but can we afford it at this point? I'd really prefer lynching rayn atm. If rayn flipped scum, it would basically semi-clear GB... Well, that didn't work with yamato though I think ritoky has shown well that he's legitimately trying to figure the game out, which is like the #1 town sign. The way he posts what he's thinking feels very town to me. Plus he's said the exact thing I was thinking many times. I'm pretty confidant in it. What's your reasoning on rayn being scum now? I'm feel fairly confident that he's town now and I'd be interested to know what about him you think is scummy at this point (probably in your filter, but that's really really long). On October 28 2015 03:46 Xatalos wrote: I just said those things because I kind of feel like he could be a townie who's on the wrong track. He feels so overly paranoid that it's a bit more indicative of town than scum... Well, I guess the other explanation is that he's just scum and making impossible shit up as he goes, but wouldn't scum GB want to improve his chances of survival tomorrow, rather than ruin his chances by antagonizing the only people who consider him to be town to some extent? I don't see how that would ruin his chances of survival though. You lynch people for doing scummy things, not because they "antagonized" you or gave you a scumread. Like, GB hasn't even been inactive this night phase. He's been around a lot, and posting. So what is he doing?? He still says we should lynch Vivax. IF he's town, he's about to get mislynched and NO ONE wants to lynch his target. But he's not posting a case, he's not trying to talk to people and convince them to lynch Vivax, he's just existing. ESPECIALLY compared to his town pushes. | ||
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Unless he's in a team with GB (unlikely), there would be no harm in putting his vote on GB instead of you. He certainly had justified a switch enough at that point. Keeping GB as a mislynch for later..? Why not keep yamato as the mislynch? It's a totally nonsensical move as either alignment --> non-alignment indicative. (Maybe even more likely town because it puts attention on him, but that can be WIFOM too). I think the thing about saying "good night" is a non-point. I've said I'm leaving before and come back to the thread after that, really not more likely as mafia than town. | ||
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Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere: On October 25 2015 06:00 Onegu wrote: Huh. Mafia normally dont make strong stances. That doesnt make much sense to me. Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him. He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town). On October 25 2015 09:41 Onegu wrote: Nope Rayn hasnt left yet. He is still town. Xata is making zero sense here. ##Vote: Xata I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense. Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point. | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:29 Xatalos wrote: Heck, I think it's maybe more likely than just 3 from the trio... I actually have no idea how you can possibly consider me and ritoky (maybe I can understand rayn) more likely to be mafia than GB, Onegu, and Hopeless. No clue. | ||
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Seriously though, I think the kill can be interpreted so many different ways. People have said that it means that mafia killed someone irrelevant because they're happy with the way things are going (meaning current targets are town). But it could also mean that mafia wanted to kill someone confusing because they want to mix things up (meaning current targets are mafia). But it could also mean that they knew we'd think that they were happy with things, or that they knew we'd think they wanted to mix it up, etc etc WIFOM. It's like double WIFOM. It makes me a little scared, but it's irrational at this point I think. On October 28 2015 05:42 ritoky wrote: chroma, people who don't make sense might just be mafia. it doesn't matter, you, me, or gumdrop is getting shot in a little bit here. The thing is, if Xatalos is mafia, he's playing the mafia game of his life right now, by a long shot. And I really don't see that as being more likely than the simple answer of the scummiest people in the thread (GB Onegu Hopeless). Occam's razor or something. I should probably take another close look at Vivax and maybe BH just to make sure that I'm not missing something big, but at this point I don't really see a reason to believe that. | ||
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On October 28 2015 06:16 Xatalos wrote: Hmm... Quite a bit conflicted on Chromatically atm. On the other hand, I really like the huge amount of effort he's put into the game. But then, at times, it just feels like he's "going through the motions", or doing things out of obligation....? And here it disturbed me a little bit how he was so anxious about GB stepping up to play out of a lynch: But dunno... It's so hard to think he's scum either when several players aren't putting in much (if any) effort... I know this probably isn't a big deal, but this bothered me so I want to clear it up. My problem is not that GB could step up and "play out of a lynch". If he proves himself to be town, then obviously he shouldn't be lynched. My problem was that you were telling him exactly what he should do! Once you tell him what to do as town, that means that if he does it, it's no longer based on his alignment but on him just following your instructions. And yes, I did feel compelled to post the Onegu stuff because I said I would post stuff on Onegu before the end of the phase. | ||
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On October 28 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote: OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think. Can you explain what happened here? | ||
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What gumdrop is saying now is about on the same level as what he was saying yesterday about yamato and GB imo so not really bothered by it. | ||
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So much WIFOM though that it's hard to think that's a sound argument. | ||
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Vivax Xatalos gumshoe BH all opposed GB lynch yesterday but thought he was scummy (except gumshoe I guess), and that's literally every townie person in the game except for you and me. | ||
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He's felt so town the whole game and he's put a lot of effort in too though his reasoning has been super weak. Maybe I'm underestimating him hard though. I guess I should check his meta to see what his top-level scum game looks like, and see if he could play at this level as scum? I SHOULD check everyone's meta really but I don't have time for that at all. | ||
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On October 28 2015 11:51 ritoky wrote: i really have SERIOUS doubts that onegu is mafia. they started when i began to come around on rayn after talks last night. hopeless is basically a coinflip who is probably a must-lynch @ some point this game which sucks... How are they related to rayn? Because rayn thought he was town? I just have a super hard time seeing anyone else as mafia. | ||
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On October 28 2015 12:29 gumshoe wrote: Do you guys really not get the whole Rayn thing? rayn dying means scum felt they couldn't mislynch him. scum not bieng able to mislynch him means at least 2 out of three scum are town reading him and to turn around and lynch him for no real reason would be super scummy of them. Is this really such a stretch? Basically my argument is that the majority of the scum team couldn't lynch rayn cause they were town reading rayn. No it's not game ending, but it is useful information to cross refrence with what you all already know. Def not "gumshoe dafack are you doing" worthy 0_0 Don't think this is necessarily true though. IF scum killed rayn because they didn't think they could mislynch him, it could be because the only people who scumread rayn WERE mafia and there was no town support for it. The exact opposite could be true. | ||
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On October 28 2015 13:46 ritoky wrote: i personally think there's at least 1 between gb and hopeless. as i said before if gb is mafia there is GUARANTEED 1 between gumdrop, vivax, and xata. Sorry, can you explain this to me? I don't understand this. | ||
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And like... I'm considering alternatives, but none of them are convincing at all. Maybe I'll find something when I look at Vivax more. | ||
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Town game (real similar to here): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/444078-cultured-mini-mafia?user=gumshoe http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/446774-world-heavyweight-championship-mafia-ii?user=gumshoe Mafia: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/448443-you-only-shoot-once-mafia?user=gumshoe http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?user=gumshoe http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445063-handslaps-and-fisticuff-a-pyp-mini?user=gumshoe http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/441596-gsl-open-mini-mafia-iv?user=gumshoe | ||
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For everything that me, ritoky, and rayn have already said, in addition to being around all night and not doing anything that looks remotely townie at all. For the record, I do support an Onegu lynch at this point (maybe this will change if I find someone else that I think could be mafia). I just think that GB is a better chance to hit. Realistically, I can't see myself lynching outside of GB/Onegu/Hopeless until all three are dead right now. | ||
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On October 28 2015 15:08 GlowingBear wrote: This is bullshit. If you think I'm mafia like you show you think I am you vote me 100%. Tell me how yamato flipping mafia would clear me. And I want YOU to tell me, not anyone else. What? It doesn't matter what I say, I wasn't convinced yamato mafia would clear you. The point is that Xatalos and gumshoe clearly thought it would. | ||
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On October 29 2015 01:08 GlowingBear wrote: Chrom, I'm reading you as town. What do you think of it? I don't think it matters very much with regards to your alignment. | ||
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What was the point of the question? | ||
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On October 29 2015 01:52 GlowingBear wrote: To see if you would come up with some bullshit. You didn't. But you are reading me as town? | ||
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On October 29 2015 01:56 GlowingBear wrote: Since day1. Sometimes I outburst with things that doesn't make sense to me but I ask for clarification then I stick to my read. Hmm okay, seems like a weird thing to do to try to 'trap' your townread since D1? | ||
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On October 29 2015 01:55 GlowingBear wrote: It's easy to demolish cases as either alignment. All I had to do is read his case and play accordingly to the town meta chromatically brought here to be instantly town read. It's SO SO easy to filter dive and bring a case on someone who is being suspected by everyone in the thread. I'm not going to do that. Is this talking about my case on you? | ||
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- "I'm used to see Vivax being paranoid town and him giving a bunch of town reads right out of the blue does not looks like his standard gameplay." #491 (first posts) - "I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated" #737 (list post) - "He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static." #774 (post to rayn D1) - "He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too." #1114 (end of D1) - "Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it." #1808 (D2) - "Vivax has displayed some townie posts, I must agree, but his overall gameplay seems scummy to me. He doesn't feel engaged to win. He hasn't done anything memorable." #2818 (D3) I was looking through GB's filter again, and I noticed how his reasons for his read on Vivax really change a lot throughout the game. His actual read is completely static, but the reasons completely change and GB gives no sign of how his read is evolving. For example, he starts by saying that Vivax isn't paranoid enough, but hasn't mentioned that in a long time. Instead he talks about yamato and how Vivax forgot about his read on him, but then he also didn't mention that again today? The only reasons he's given today are the ones in the last bullet point, which are basically completely unrelated to the ones he's given before. Basically, if the other reasons from earlier still apply, then why hasn't GB mentioned them at all? And if they don't apply anymore, then why has his read not shown any signs of reevaluation? | ||
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I also looked at GB's meta again, and it made me really confident again. This is totally, completely different from his town games. His town games remind me a lot of mine, and this is nothing like it. Noticed this post from rayn again, and it made me feel better again about our direction: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=127#2536 | ||
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On October 29 2015 06:47 Chromatically wrote: Still going to give ritoky and BH's filters a thorough look to make sure I'm not missing something big, but I think if we lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless we will AT LEAST get to final three. I think we'll probably just win, but I really don't see any way for two of them to be mafia. *to be town, that is | ||
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On October 29 2015 08:54 Xatalos wrote: Hm yeah, that is a pretty extreme tunnel.... Though he did mention that Vivax has "made some townie posts"? Well, that's a very vague description, I agree. And Vivax has just remained safely scummy throughout the game even if the reasons change :/ Can't say I'm really sad if we solve him today. Might even vote for him closer to deadline if you think GB is a much better option than Onegu, Chromatically. Yay! I can't argue for Onegu at all, but GB is much surer to me. I think it might be a good idea for people to consolidate more on one wagon prior to deadline? It seems like most people are pretty okay with Onegu or GB, and I'm a little worried about a situation where the wagons are 4-4 and Hopeless gets the deciding vote or something. Maybe that would deprive us of some voting information but I'm not sure how helpful that is at this point. | ||
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So yeah... GB/Onegu/Hopeless. Don't let this game go full RIP guys. | ||
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On October 29 2015 13:27 ritoky wrote: wife surprised me with sounders playoff tickets. won't be here until around deadline. WE WONNNNN SDGHDSGHSJGBSDGBKD Probably should vote buddy! | ||
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On October 29 2015 14:19 GlowingBear wrote: Chrom, if I'm mafia with Onegu, why not voting him now? Not much of a choice is there? On October 29 2015 20:44 Xatalos wrote: I think the scumteam has to be in GB/Onegu/hopeless/ritoky... Chromatically has looked quite good lately, so it's likely not him. I doubt there's much benefit to clearly consolidating? There's potential to more information if the situation is uncertain (hard choices for scum). I really don't think it's ritoky, but it's hard for me to express why. I think it's a combination of his tone (which sounds really town to me), his willingness to figure out the game (he's been one of the people working consistently on it I feel like), and his paranoia (not just going on autopilot). | ||
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On October 30 2015 00:20 GlowingBear wrote: It should be clear to you guys that there must be at least 1 town wagon since no other lynch was proposed here. I highly doubt mafia wouldn't focus on scumreading someone else by now (almost EOD) if both wagons were mafia. Gumshoe, why aren't you voting Onegu? Yeah this is straight up not true, if the team is what people think it is then they have zero pull in the thread to propose lynches (you and Onegu have tried). | ||
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On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote: Your arguement doesnt make much sense because reads can flip. If only scum were town reading him what is to stop their reads from flipping to oh yeah I can see that on a case and voting rayn. Or saying rayn is cancer this game I am going to vote him. Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched. I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads. In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. Which of his reads did you agree with? | ||
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On October 30 2015 02:38 Vivax wrote: Come on, it's in his filter. Obviously he agrees with rayn on Xata and hopeless. Disagrees on GB and BH. Interestingly GB is on his lynch and so is BH, people he isn't scumreading and who were in rayn's case. Not sure actually if rayn was still thinking of Xata being scum before he died. He's kinda ignoring two guys who want to lynch him and who rayn scumread? Then I'd like to know his own reasoning for the reads. See, I wanted him to explain it to see how he would explain the fact that he didn't really agree with a lot of rayn's reads. I don't even think rayn thought Xatalos was mafia when he died too. | ||
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On October 30 2015 02:36 Xatalos wrote: I guess Onegu/GB makes more sense with this turn of events? (Onegu gunning for hopeless) And yeah, it's odd to ignore rayn's top scumread while otherwise relying on his reads to that extent... If Onegu/GB is the team then it's been full-on bus territory for a while now I think, there's a super low chance that the lynch gets redirected to Hopeless here. | ||
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On October 30 2015 03:08 Blazinghand wrote: yeah honestly nothing that's happened has made me think "lynching GB 1G H1 is bad" it's all consistent yep agree | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:40 Blazinghand wrote: how do marv and rayn mean we should lynch GB over 1G? rayn thought Onegu was town and GB was mafia, marv thought GB was more mafia than Onegu before he stopped playing | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:42 Blazinghand wrote: So the theory here is that mafia shots were a straightforward attempt to keep 1G alive over GB? Isn't it possible that both 1G and GB are scum? Yeah no it's extremely likely that they both are mafia. I'm on the same page as you with that. I didn't mean it as nk WIFOM stuff, I just meant that strong confirmed town players agreed that GB was mafia. | ||
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If Onegu somehow flips town though I'll be upset. | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:55 Blazinghand wrote: I know things LOOK that way, I know he SOUNDS like a desperate townie, but really, it's fine. ITS FINE. We'll get GB tomorrow. Let's get 1G now. DO NOT STOP. DO NOT UNVOTE HIM CHROM BH you can come to the dark side with me, I'm already over here on GB you can do it I believe | ||
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joke bby, I can do those sometime | ||
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I guess I should look at stuff again or something now that there's a confirmed mafia flip but doubtful it will change my mind. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:42 Onegu wrote: Ill read the GB case in a bit. He has been really null for me. On October 26 2015 23:44 Onegu wrote: No I never said he was lying. He never said he was working. I point it out because sometimes I dont know if he is working or not. I do not know his work schedule. My point was out of the 2 wagons I would lynch yamato over GB because of activity. And normally that doesnt work for yamato you cannot make a read off of him because of activity because he is working. But this game I know he wasnt working. This doesnt mean yamato is my preferred lynch, he looked really townie day 1. On October 26 2015 23:57 Onegu wrote: No I am not calling him mafia rayn. I am null on him. I am null on GB. They are the 2 current wagons. I gave my thoughts on the wagons. I said if I had to choose from the wagons I would vote Yamato. On October 27 2015 00:21 Onegu wrote: Becuase it effects my read on him. That is why I would lynch him over GB. But I am waiting for you to tell me why GB is scum. On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. And here's most of what he says about Hopeless (I omitted a bunch of "lynch hopeless" posts): + Show Spoiler + On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: ... Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. ... On October 25 2015 05:48 Onegu wrote: ... Could also lynch hopeless here. Like I baited him and he did nothing about it and just went after easy lynches even after threatening me. His reads seem to just go along with thread sentiment. ... On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 30 2015 01:48 Onegu wrote: That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons... Can we please vote hopeless? ##Vote: Hopeless So my initial reaction to this is that Onegu never giving a read at all on GB looks really really bad. I don't think this says much about Hopeless at all, it could be Onegu pushing an easy target or it could be him putting pressure on his scumbuddy that's not playing (and wasn't really up for lynch any of those days). | ||
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On October 30 2015 11:23 Xatalos wrote: gn gn, you just reminded me I should probably do work instead of mafia for a bit | ||
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You're GB and you're town. You KNOW 100% that the wagons were mafia-town, and the vote went through 5-4. Here are the votes against you: Onegu (confirmed mafia) Chromatically (your townread who's been pushing you) Vivax (your #1 scumread all game) Hopeless (complete lurker you've been calling scum all game) So... a Vivax-Hopeless team should be pretty obvious from a town GB perspective, right? Instead, GB is assuming that Onegu was a complete bus from both mafia (who didn't hammer GB for some reason?), when he logically should see that all the scummiest people in the game (from his perspective) were piled on his wagon (who he should know is town). | ||
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On October 30 2015 18:29 Vivax wrote: I've started to doubt gumshoe since he started planting the idea that I'm mafia as opposed to people who are competent at reading me. I was assuming his posting style made him town all game long but given that 2 mafia are planning the endgame now and he has started to doing all sorts of shady shit, I'm reevaluating. Take a look at this post, it's from D1. When you look at the votecounts in question you will notice that nobody ever had a chance to kill Onegu cause marv and rayn were both on the slam wagon with huge support from others. Point I'm making is that this read is weird given the information we have now, and suggests gumshoe had knowledge of how to read people around Onegu's alignment. Another example: When he went all nuts and Chrom-defender after I told Chrom that if he wanted Onegu's reads he could simply look them up. As you will soon see, neither was ritoky's switch "last second" (it happened 12 min prior lynch), nor does it make sense for gumshoe to make the assumption that ritoky is town cause if Onegu was town ritoky would look terrible. And I think this is a nail in the coffin type of argument already, cause now I'm explaining it like you're 12. First of all, he's exaggerating the weight of what ritoky really did: Last second switch, killig Onegu when the majority was on Slam all the time and didn't have any intention to switch. Second, he's making this argument in which he spews Onegu's alignment (and ritoky's with the entire post). Second, he's using this logic: "Since ritoky would look terrible if Onegu flipped town, he is town". at a time where he couldn't possibly be certain on Onegu's alignment, and also wasn't in his scumreads posts. He literally assumed 100 % that Onegu was mafia when making this post. Here the relevant votes, for display: I don't see what's wrong with his logic? I don't see how he assumed that Onegu was mafia during his post. He says if Onegu is mafia, then ritoky can't be mafia, and if Onegu is town, then ritoky can't be mafia either, therefore ritoky is town. Maybe he's exaggerating/giving too much weight to the argument, but I don't see how it's scummy. | ||
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On October 30 2015 22:21 Xatalos wrote: Hmm.... Yeah, that's a bit odd. Would make sense if GB is scum with either hopeless or Vivax though. Yeah, exactly because he needs two mislynches to win, so he can't survive if we lynch into {GB/Hopeless/Vivax} in that world. He has to convince people on gumshoe or someone else. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:08 Chromatically wrote: GlowingBear That's right ladies and gentlemen, this is a legit case so strap yourselves in. This game's filter --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GB has not been pushing his scumreads like he does as town GB has three different lynch targets throughout the day (although he spends most of the time on Vivax). GB does not even make an attempt to get people to vote on BH or rayn other than the posts quoted here. Vivax he "pushes" on for a little bit earlier in the day, but it basically consisted of talking to marv a little bit about it and then discussing it with Vivax himself. He never really pushes it very hard. Compare this to his other games (quotes all taken from D1): As Town + Show Spoiler + Mini Mafia Down Under On July 27 2015 03:46 GlowingBear wrote: .:Case on KelsierSC:. 1) Constantly whining about having to waste posts with bad things without actually using his remaining 50+ posts for anything else + Show Spoiler + /*really long nested quote omitted*/ If he is so worried about wasting posts with useless stuff, WHY DOES HE WASTE POSTS TO KEEP SAYING HE IS ANNOYED? "Yes, one person is enough to annoy me", really? Why is he so annoyed, man? "Everybody is playing like shit". No, nobody is playing like shit in this game. This game is pretty concise and to the point. His annoyance is unjustified, it's ridiculous. Looks like mafia trying to fake being emotional. 2) Deflecting any early suspicions brought on him + guilty conscience THIS IS HIS SECOND POST IN THE GAME! This is an unnatural reaction to what scott posted. In town mindset, the reaction I would expect would be "then you're stupid because I'm town" and not "ok, you think I'm scum, am I the only one lol". It reveals mafia's guilty conscience. More than that, and more important, it is a deflection of early pressure. He sees someone calling him scum and softly tries to shift pressure to someone else. If you ask "am I the only one?" a common response would be "no, I didn't like X as well" and if they keep talking about X, the pressure is shifted. The same reaction can be seen here: + Show Spoiler + On July 25 2015 19:54 KelsierSC wrote: This isn't going to lead to anything productive so I think it's best to just end it here. It can be interpreted in both ways: town not wanting to shit the thread, or scum deflecting pressure. Since Kelsier already displayed the deflection behaviour, the second option is more likely. 3) Wanting to lynch me then backtracking when having no reasons to + Show Spoiler + */ even longer nested quote */ The progression is this, for people that doesn't want to read the posts: Kelsier says he doesn't like me and he would lynch me happily. I ask him why he doesn't like me. He says everything I post looks stupid. I asked him what is stupid in them and why does that makes me mafia. He said it doesn't make me mafia but he would lynch me anyway, and that he is annoyed because idiots (like me) are annoying him, but never says what are the problems with my posts. He then comes to the thread and says he wants to lynch "hopeless, clarity, obi and bf", not wanting to lynch me. It's simple: he said he didn't like me hoping to have me as an option for mislynch. When I confront it, he says I look stupid but he forgets it's something he doesn't believe is alignment indicative for me. Then he says he would lynch me anyway implying that I annoy him. Well, I wasn't raising suspicions on him since that time. Now I've being pressuring him for the rest of day1 and he doesn't want to lynch me anymore LOL. He is not annoyed with it. What I mean with this is: his actions does not follows his discourse, which is mostly a scum trait. Add to this the fact that he answers almost NOTHING of my posts directed to him. He just deflects them, adding to point (2) of this case. 4) HE IS VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT HE IS FUCKING VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT. SCOTT WAS THE FIRST GUY TO ANNOY HIM (AND KELSIER WOULD LYNCH PEOPLE DOING THAT)! Why he doesn't prefer a scott lynch? Hell, a lot of people thinks he is mafia! Instead of going against the guy that certainly looked as mafia for him, he is going against questionmark!Tofu. More than that, he wasn't advocating for a lynch on Scott, but opened a range of possible lynches he would go against (tofu, scott, obi, clarity). IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE, PEOPLE! COME ON!!! + Show Spoiler [WIFOM] + Points on Kelsier were brought many times and no one quickly jumped on it, not even Scott, who was suspicions on Kelsier in the first place. The quick and unreasonable town reads Kelsier got points out that scum didn't want him as a possible mislynch. I am POSITIVE Kelsier is mafia. Vote him with me. ##Vote: KelsierSC On July 27 2015 06:28 GlowingBear wrote: Thought process does not compute. You think Tofu is Mafia Then you say Mafia is trying to take people out of the tofu wagon. The alternate wagon is clarity. I suppose you may think Mafia could be there. But you call Mafia people that were in other wagons and does not consider people that moved to the clarity wagon. You even raise suspicions on me but you don't call me Mafia (?), what's the point then? Then you dive clarity and suddenly he is bad? What about Mafia protecting tofu by forming another wagon????? Your thought process makes no sense and it completely fits Mafia perspective GUYS VOTE SCOTT PLEASE On July 27 2015 06:35 GlowingBear wrote: I mean, if you THINK Mafia is trying to take votes off of Mafia!Tofu you MUST consider they are forming the alternate wagon INSTEAD of ignoring people forming the alternate wagon and placing votes somewhere else. There is no other option EVEN if you believed in what you just said, it would make me completely Mafia, and not just something you would say "I don't know you're Mafia". Then other Mafia are boxerfred (?) and PROBABLY A VET? Why a vet, which vet, why not me. Then you simply say you could lynch clarity, man. You just said Mafia was taking votes off of tofu. You can't me town. PEOPLE PLEASE, SCOTT CAN'T BE TOWN Battle of the Drams Mafia: On October 01 2015 04:18 GlowingBear wrote: And truffle's recent posts are looking townie which is making me doubt my scum read on him. So there is that. LYNCH COOL TL NAME. Brb later On October 01 2015 06:54 GlowingBear wrote: STOP Keep your votes on COOL TL he is Mafia On October 01 2015 06:57 GlowingBear wrote: DO NOT VOTE SCOTT FUCKING KILL COOL TL ARGH DAMDRED ISN'T EVEN CLAIMING TRACKER, HE IS CLAIMING HE WILL HE DEAD As Mafia + Show Spoiler + Newbie Student XIV: On September 07 2015 02:26 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting scott. I don't see a better lynch than him. On September 07 2015 03:55 GlowingBear wrote: I really think noobking shouldn't be the lynch today. Vote scott. On September 07 2015 05:36 GlowingBear wrote: Superbia, I'm home but I'm not feeling well, so I'm not going to format it well so I can take a quick nap quicker: This post may appear contributive at first glance but it's basically a summary of the thread at that point and reads accordingly to thread sentiment, bringing nothing new to the table. Why is Rayn town, why he is so quick to give yamato a townread like that? Why just saying I'm "drinking" again, discrediting me? It's a bunch of rehash with an attempt of looking contributive without actually contributing. He then starts to post reads accordingly to his progression on the pages of thread, cluttering the thread with partial and outdated information he keeps further reevaluating instead of just giving his opinion on one big post. My problem with this is that he is again trying to look contributive while not actually being contributive. Worse. He is cluttering the thread just to show "look, I'm doing stuff!" instead of interacting and actually search for Mafia. He is very bold when he gives reads. Calls Nocturne "town" with no back reqsoning when he was suspicious of mage's slot. He gives 3 names of people he thinks are Mafia and he could lynch (sayinf maybe I'm not Mafia an cake is) but posts this: For someone who has 3-4 scumreads, this is extremely scummy. Why is he okay with boxer's lynch if he has THREE better targets and he even ADMITS boxer is only a policy? I see no better lynch. Game of Thrones Mini Mafia: On April 18 2015 05:15 GlowingBear wrote: ... I've already said I'd prefer to lynch a scummy lurker at this point. It's not that I can't lynch SL, it's that I can deal with him later since I have information on him On April 18 2015 06:36 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting loafery thrn art Vote with me Mafia Mini Mafia 2: On April 08 2015 03:48 GlowingBear wrote: Lol Damdy. Last time you said this you were Mafia. I also don't have to rely on meta this early. Again, I also know well your gameplay so I can figure you out later better. I need more information on you so I can draft a meta argument. That is why I think you should be Mafia, though: jumping too fast on the conclusion that I am Mafia. As town, GB not only pushes his target a lot, but is very passionate about doing so (doing capslock or spamming the thread to vote for his target). As mafia, he may have a target but he is much calmer about it and doesn't seem to be very invested in the lynch. GB's pushes this game have resembled his mafia pushes much much more than they resemble his town pushes by not having any passion for pushing his targets and not being invested in the lynch at all. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total activity Here's just some numbers on activity for the games I looked at. Each number represents the page of filter GB was on after D1 finishes. Town games: Mini Mafia Down Under (this was a post restricted game): 5 pages Battle of the Drams: 9 pages Mafia in the Himalayas: 13 pages Mafia games: Newbie Student XIV: 7 pages Game of Thrones Mini: 3 pages Mafia Mini Mafia 2: 5 pages Average town: 9 pages Average mafia: 5 pages This game: 4 pages Of course, this isn't conclusive: activity is not entirely indicative of alignment, and the sample size of only 3 games per side means that this could be misrepresentative. However, I think the difference between town and mafia activity on D1 (even including a post restricted game!) is large enough to make it a point worth considering in conjunction with the other points. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other non-meta stuff One thing I thought was really weird from GB this game are the posts he pinged out when rereading the thread. I thought these were very strange posts to get reads from. Why does my post in there give him such a strong townread on me? I LITERALLY said that BH hasn't done anything alignment indicative and I get a day pass for it??? What? The posts from ritoky and Xatalos he quoted also seemed very strange, since I do not consider those posts particularly town at all. This doesn't make sense from town, but it makes sense from a mafia trying to manufacture their town reads on players they already know are town. In addition, I found this interaction with Vivax strange: Theoretically, GB has a scumread on Vivax at this point. So why is he basically giving tips to Vivax about how to read yamato? It makes more sense if he's unsure about his read and is starting to think Vivax is town, but his next list post just reaffirms that Vivax is his top scumread. I think this post is more likely to come from mafia, who already know that Vivax is town, than it is to come from a townie talking to someone they think is mafia. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is all in addition to the stuff that other people have said already about GB this game (usually related to his read on Vivax), which I won't repeat again here, and the general idea that GB really hasn't done much this game other than kind of just being around. ##Vote: GlowingBear Sources: Mini Mafia Down Under (town) Battle of the Drams Mafia (town) Mafia in the Himalayas (town) Newbie Student Mafia XIV (mafia) Game of Thrones Mini Mafia (mafia) Mafia Mini Mafia 2 (mafia) On October 27 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: GlowingBear is definitely mafia. Just read this and the post i made about this earlier, here: and here... The fact is this has nothing to do with either: 1) re-evaluating a read, or 2) not having read the thread GlowingBear calls me town, then calls me mafia 20 hours later while calling me town there all the time between. Nowhere there does he make any attempt to re-evaluate anything, also i asked him multiple times if he has read the thread properly. He says "yes i have". This is not re-evaluating something (in contrary to for what example i did regarding my reads on ritoky / GB on D1), because he never shows any process of re-evaluation. Then, he just ends up saying the same bullshit Xatalos is pushing. Now idk, maybe he expected Slam to get lynched and didn't want to be on a mislynch wagon, or maybe he expected Xatalos to be able to lynch me which would be a much better for mafia than Slam lynched. idk. But still, the fact is he ended up voting for his townread over someone who he "can't get a read on" (=null). That, is a fact, and he just made up reasons for the read, as shown above. Hopeless is another scum since he just doesn't play anymore. He can also get lynched. Next thing is to read Onegu, and unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. On October 27 2015 07:17 ritoky wrote: to summarize it quickly before i go: - no read on me even though he has played with me a bunch and can read me (claims can't){for ex. he has been mafia with me before and he knows how much i like the bus, i was expecting a no bus d1 = no mafia read out of him and i didn't get it} - self centric defensive play d1 - lots of talking about self and no real pro-active scum hunting - not GB town - isn't astounded he isn't being read town, hasn't freaked out, lacking charisma, low effort/caring level, and not plays attempted. - terrible defense - "i am town, push to vote" - 0 attempt to push his targets with any form of conviction. lots of caveats in the few reads given. if you find that town gb indicative then thumbs up to you, i don't. On October 29 2015 06:43 Chromatically wrote: Most of GB's posts on Vivax - "I'm used to see Vivax being paranoid town and him giving a bunch of town reads right out of the blue does not looks like his standard gameplay." #491 (first posts) - "I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated" #737 (list post) - "He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static." #774 (post to rayn D1) - "He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too." #1114 (end of D1) - "Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it." #1808 (D2) - "Vivax has displayed some townie posts, I must agree, but his overall gameplay seems scummy to me. He doesn't feel engaged to win. He hasn't done anything memorable." #2818 (D3) I was looking through GB's filter again, and I noticed how his reasons for his read on Vivax really change a lot throughout the game. His actual read is completely static, but the reasons completely change and GB gives no sign of how his read is evolving. For example, he starts by saying that Vivax isn't paranoid enough, but hasn't mentioned that in a long time. Instead he talks about yamato and how Vivax forgot about his read on him, but then he also didn't mention that again today? The only reasons he's given today are the ones in the last bullet point, which are basically completely unrelated to the ones he's given before. Basically, if the other reasons from earlier still apply, then why hasn't GB mentioned them at all? And if they don't apply anymore, then why has his read not shown any signs of reevaluation? On October 30 2015 11:09 Chromatically wrote: Here's every read Onegu gave on GB: + Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:42 Onegu wrote: Ill read the GB case in a bit. He has been really null for me. On October 26 2015 23:44 Onegu wrote: No I never said he was lying. He never said he was working. I point it out because sometimes I dont know if he is working or not. I do not know his work schedule. My point was out of the 2 wagons I would lynch yamato over GB because of activity. And normally that doesnt work for yamato you cannot make a read off of him because of activity because he is working. But this game I know he wasnt working. This doesnt mean yamato is my preferred lynch, he looked really townie day 1. On October 26 2015 23:57 Onegu wrote: No I am not calling him mafia rayn. I am null on him. I am null on GB. They are the 2 current wagons. I gave my thoughts on the wagons. I said if I had to choose from the wagons I would vote Yamato. On October 27 2015 00:21 Onegu wrote: Becuase it effects my read on him. That is why I would lynch him over GB. But I am waiting for you to tell me why GB is scum. On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. And here's most of what he says about Hopeless (I omitted a bunch of "lynch hopeless" posts): + Show Spoiler + On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: ... Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. ... On October 25 2015 05:48 Onegu wrote: ... Could also lynch hopeless here. Like I baited him and he did nothing about it and just went after easy lynches even after threatening me. His reads seem to just go along with thread sentiment. ... On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 30 2015 01:48 Onegu wrote: That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons... Can we please vote hopeless? ##Vote: Hopeless So my initial reaction to this is that Onegu never giving a read at all on GB looks really really bad. I don't think this says much about Hopeless at all, it could be Onegu pushing an easy target or it could be him putting pressure on his scumbuddy that's not playing (and wasn't really up for lynch any of those days). On October 30 2015 22:11 Chromatically wrote: Here's something I just thought of: You're GB and you're town. You KNOW 100% that the wagons were mafia-town, and the vote went through 5-4. Here are the votes against you: Onegu (confirmed mafia) Chromatically (your townread who's been pushing you) Vivax (your #1 scumread all game) Hopeless (complete lurker you've been calling scum all game) So... a Vivax-Hopeless team should be pretty obvious from a town GB perspective, right? Instead, GB is assuming that Onegu was a complete bus from both mafia (who didn't hammer GB for some reason?), when he logically should see that all the scummiest people in the game (from his perspective) were piled on his wagon (who he should know is town). | ||
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On October 31 2015 00:25 Vivax wrote: Literally the only scenario where "mafia tries to save GB" is valid is if I'm scum with Chrom or hopeless. Or we'd be stupid for not both being on the bus Don't get me even started on the GB and me scenario cause that's just super idiotic. He's reading way too much into that to be townie. And the focus on Onegu. If he was stuck on voting Slam like he was without partaking in shenannies like ritoky, then why is it one of his first thoughts to analyse ritoky's alignment BASED on Onegu's alignment? The point is that as mafia you have a different type of attention to things. Like Onegu slipping that Slam was town when he said "the best marv has is a lynch on Slam" and then ends up TRing marv. Both flipped townies (you gotta work with that not with the conspiracies around my alignment depending on GB's). I think that in that post gumshoe said something mafia would say, since he resorted to analysing the action of a guy I'm assuming to be town (ritoky) using a now flipped mafia as the person that made a difference in reading ritoky. And that happened when in the posts previous to those posts, he wasn't pushing for an Onegu lynch, he was pushing for hopeless and yamato. If you go back a little more you find what he was actually saying about 1gu: + Show Spoiler + id get behind an onegu lynch to spare slam and rayn, also in these posts he calls hopeless and ritoky scum for super vauge reasons. Found this kinda townie when I saw it? more to do with my fantasy mafia team than anything else but the reads were so weak they might not actually count against it. Oh and the nice post above says this: + Show Spoiler + I have considered onegu scummy all game based off his lacklustre play. Never once have I town read him I really don't get it. He got a read on ritoky, but he never assumed that Onegu was mafia. He saw that ritoky's action made more sense as town if Onegu is mafia AND if Onegu is town, so he gets a conclusion about ritoky. Is the argument that gumshoe is more likely to think about relational reads like that as mafia? Because I don't see that at all. And in the posts before the ones you quoted, he did say he wanted to kill Onegu (although I still don't get how that's relevant to the ritoky thing)? For the record, I read GB's case and I am completely unconvinced. gumshoe basically spent all D2 defending GB but knows that everyone in the game wants him gone (and he was wrong on yamato), and he's said multiple times that he's okay with lynching GB. His hesitance between GB and Onegu makes a lot of sense from him, and it's definitely not 100% by any stretch of the imagination. Honestly, if gumshoe is mafia and GB is town, he pretty easily could have kept his vote on GB after being so undecided about it. He literally wrote that he thought GB is mafia from tone and voted. Why not keep the vote there if he's town??? That's on top of the meta stuff I've said earlier and the fact that he's so so passionate about yamato mafia and GB town and the fact that he's been posting a lot of thoughts. | ||
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IF GB is town: The mafia are three out of {me, Vivax, Hopeless}. No question. If you believe otherwise (that at least one mafia was bussing), then you have to find a person on the Onegu wagon that couldn't have switched to secure the GB lynch. gumshoe wrote a justification for voting GB, he could have kept his vote there. BH was posting a lot about being worried about the lynch, he could have easily switched at the last second and people would be like "Oh BH, you silly goose! You and your shenannies!" ritoky switched for basically no reason and hammered scum, he 100% could have just kept his vote on GB with perfect justification. Xatalos was saying that he might be okay with lynching GB earlier in the day and he's been scumreading GB too, he could have switched. The mafia team is EITHER GB + someone else OR {me/Vivax/Hopeless}. To believe otherwise, you have to think that scum willingly avoided, for basically no reason, lynching a town and saving Onegu, which would have put us into 4-3 LYLO. | ||
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On October 31 2015 00:28 GlowingBear wrote: Yeah. And me bussing Onegu since day1, however, is completely okay. This doesn't even have anything to do with what I said! THERE IS NO LOGIC TO GB FLIPPING HIS READS LIKE THIS OUT OF NOWHERE. GB has not been bussing Onegu. He's been throwing suspicion on Onegu and saying he's mafia, but never once has he pushed Onegu to be lynched with any kind of force. He votes yamato over Onegu D2 without pushing Onegu and then switches to rayn? If you were mafia and your team was Onegu/Hopeless, would you really not throw suspicion on them? Here's the kind of stuff he's been saying: On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote: Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign) On October 26 2015 08:15 GlowingBear wrote: I am very suspicious of Onegu. I will always think he is a good lynch. On October 24 2015 03:08 GlowingBear wrote: I've said I could lynch Onegu. Yamato is the type of guy that gets afk as both alignments and if he is mafia time can easily tell. On October 26 2015 09:59 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting yamato atm but I prefer an onegu lynch better There is absolutely nothing in here that makes a GB-Onegu team unlikely at all. I would argue that the suspicion without pushing it at all makes it more likely. | ||
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I'm actually going to go crazy if people don't want to lynch GB though. Really crazy. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:49 gumshoe wrote: I swear that wont happen, we lynch hopeless tommorow, gb/vivax the day after and whoevers left between the two at lylo. No one else dies by fire this game. Okay gumshoe my man I'm counting on you. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:52 Chromatically wrote: Yeah that's true, but apparently Vivax and maybe ritoky are thinking about lynching you and it's getting a bit to spooky for me. Way too many tinfoil theories floating around, we win if we just stick to the plan. Maybe not ritoky but he thinks there's a sneakster scum which would mean lynching someone that we shouldn't lynch. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:55 Vivax wrote: It's hilarious how you call people confirmed just for being on the right wagon, it's like you guys have to still learn what bussing is and that it's pretty common around here. Literally what mafia wants, being able to measure townieness by cred instead of play, cause it's easier to get cred from a simple vote than play like you aren't mafia. No. Everyone on the Onegu wagon could have easily and justifiably switched to GB, with minimal suspicion on them. You are arguing that given the choice completely on their own, mafia chose to kill their partner rather than town. It's possible that they put together a sick bus plan to get town cred, but 99% of the time 4-3 LYLO with would be way way better than the position now when they already had lots of town cred. And gumshoe has played a lot like he isn't mafia, lol. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:36 Chromatically wrote: Guys, think about this: IF GB is town: The mafia are three out of {me, Vivax, Hopeless}. No question. If you believe otherwise (that at least one mafia was bussing), then you have to find a person on the Onegu wagon that couldn't have switched to secure the GB lynch. gumshoe wrote a justification for voting GB, he could have kept his vote there. BH was posting a lot about being worried about the lynch, he could have easily switched at the last second and people would be like "Oh BH, you silly goose! You and your shenannies!" ritoky switched for basically no reason and hammered scum, he 100% could have just kept his vote on GB with perfect justification. Xatalos was saying that he might be okay with lynching GB earlier in the day and he's been scumreading GB too, he could have switched. The mafia team is EITHER GB + someone else OR {me/Vivax/Hopeless}. To believe otherwise, you have to think that scum willingly avoided, for basically no reason, lynching a town and saving Onegu, which would have put us into 4-3 LYLO. If you disagree with this, you are saying that mafia WILLINGLY chose to kill their partner over GB, when they were already being read as town by everyone in the thread (BH, gumshoe, ritoky, Xatalos all were top towns). There was no reason to bus for town cred when they could have switched to put us in LYLO. | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:17 GlowingBear wrote: Dude this is exactly why I'm calling gumshoe mafia but he is and I'm not because I ACTUALLY VOTED ONEGU and he only voted when his vote wouldn't take me out of majority. ROFL you people... Are you actually arguing that voting Onegu when he's the other wagon to you makes you town? | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:32 Blazinghand wrote: Why WOULDN'T you 100% bus Onegu? And when push came to shove didn't vote him until he was the only other wagon? Even when you threw away your vote D2, you threw it away on rayn, not on Onegu. You talk a big talk about lynching Onegu but... well, you never voted him, and never tried to REALLY get things going on him, until he was literally the only other wagon. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/497022-mini-mafia-the-vanilla-experience-voting-thread?user=glowingbear where are your Onegu votes, if you've been on him? It's a nice attempt at a bus I guess Exactly this. There's no actual attempt at getting Onegu lynched or pushing him until you have no choice but to vote him. | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:33 GlowingBear wrote: "Let's lynch slam!" "I can read him better later, it's better to lynch Onegu" "No let's lynch yamato then!" "Him also. I'll vote him but seriously, I prefer lynching Onegu". When I could just "Oh yeah, slam play makes no sense, let's lynch him Gg" Yes, you saying Onegu should be lynched is never going to get anyone else to vote on him and so isn't actually going to get him lynched at all. As mafia, you'd actually want to do exactly what you did: say that he looks scummy (so you can argue this when he flips) but not actually push to get him lynched. | ||
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Stick to the plan and lynch GlowingBear and Hopeless. Some of the reasons for GB I quoted in this post HERE, so seriously go look at all those quotes if you haven't. Here's what I've said about the association between GB-Onegu: On October 31 2015 01:45 Chromatically wrote: This doesn't even have anything to do with what I said! THERE IS NO LOGIC TO GB FLIPPING HIS READS LIKE THIS OUT OF NOWHERE. GB has not been bussing Onegu. He's been throwing suspicion on Onegu and saying he's mafia, but never once has he pushed Onegu to be lynched with any kind of force. He votes yamato over Onegu D2 without pushing Onegu and then switches to rayn? If you were mafia and your team was Onegu/Hopeless, would you really not throw suspicion on them? Here's the kind of stuff he's been saying: There is absolutely nothing in here that makes a GB-Onegu team unlikely at all. I would argue that the suspicion without pushing it at all makes it more likely. On October 30 2015 11:09 Chromatically wrote: Here's every read Onegu gave on GB: + Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:42 Onegu wrote: Ill read the GB case in a bit. He has been really null for me. On October 26 2015 23:44 Onegu wrote: No I never said he was lying. He never said he was working. I point it out because sometimes I dont know if he is working or not. I do not know his work schedule. My point was out of the 2 wagons I would lynch yamato over GB because of activity. And normally that doesnt work for yamato you cannot make a read off of him because of activity because he is working. But this game I know he wasnt working. This doesnt mean yamato is my preferred lynch, he looked really townie day 1. On October 26 2015 23:57 Onegu wrote: No I am not calling him mafia rayn. I am null on him. I am null on GB. They are the 2 current wagons. I gave my thoughts on the wagons. I said if I had to choose from the wagons I would vote Yamato. On October 27 2015 00:21 Onegu wrote: Becuase it effects my read on him. That is why I would lynch him over GB. But I am waiting for you to tell me why GB is scum. On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. And here's most of what he says about Hopeless (I omitted a bunch of "lynch hopeless" posts): + Show Spoiler + On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: ... Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. ... On October 25 2015 05:48 Onegu wrote: ... Could also lynch hopeless here. Like I baited him and he did nothing about it and just went after easy lynches even after threatening me. His reads seem to just go along with thread sentiment. ... On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 30 2015 01:48 Onegu wrote: That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons... Can we please vote hopeless? ##Vote: Hopeless So my initial reaction to this is that Onegu never giving a read at all on GB looks really really bad. I don't think this says much about Hopeless at all, it could be Onegu pushing an easy target or it could be him putting pressure on his scumbuddy that's not playing (and wasn't really up for lynch any of those days). IF GB is somehow town, then the team is almost certainly Hopeless + Vivax, just from the votes. Logic here: On October 31 2015 01:36 Chromatically wrote: Guys, think about this: IF GB is town: The mafia are three out of {me, Vivax, Hopeless}. No question. If you believe otherwise (that at least one mafia was bussing), then you have to find a person on the Onegu wagon that couldn't have switched to secure the GB lynch. gumshoe wrote a justification for voting GB, he could have kept his vote there. BH was posting a lot about being worried about the lynch, he could have easily switched at the last second and people would be like "Oh BH, you silly goose! You and your shenannies!" ritoky switched for basically no reason and hammered scum, he 100% could have just kept his vote on GB with perfect justification. Xatalos was saying that he might be okay with lynching GB earlier in the day and he's been scumreading GB too, he could have switched. The mafia team is EITHER GB + someone else OR {me/Vivax/Hopeless}. To believe otherwise, you have to think that scum willingly avoided, for basically no reason, lynching a town and saving Onegu, which would have put us into 4-3 LYLO. | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:43 GlowingBear wrote: Repeatedly saying you want to lynch Onegu is me not actually wanting to lynch Onegu. How do you think I should've pushed Onegu, then? Like my push on Vivax? It surely worked wonders, didn't it? No, probably something more like the pushes you make in your town games. Here's an example: On July 27 2015 03:46 GlowingBear wrote: .:Case on KelsierSC:. 1) Constantly whining about having to waste posts with bad things without actually using his remaining 50+ posts for anything else + Show Spoiler + /*really long nested quote omitted*/ If he is so worried about wasting posts with useless stuff, WHY DOES HE WASTE POSTS TO KEEP SAYING HE IS ANNOYED? "Yes, one person is enough to annoy me", really? Why is he so annoyed, man? "Everybody is playing like shit". No, nobody is playing like shit in this game. This game is pretty concise and to the point. His annoyance is unjustified, it's ridiculous. Looks like mafia trying to fake being emotional. 2) Deflecting any early suspicions brought on him + guilty conscience THIS IS HIS SECOND POST IN THE GAME! This is an unnatural reaction to what scott posted. In town mindset, the reaction I would expect would be "then you're stupid because I'm town" and not "ok, you think I'm scum, am I the only one lol". It reveals mafia's guilty conscience. More than that, and more important, it is a deflection of early pressure. He sees someone calling him scum and softly tries to shift pressure to someone else. If you ask "am I the only one?" a common response would be "no, I didn't like X as well" and if they keep talking about X, the pressure is shifted. The same reaction can be seen here: + Show Spoiler + On July 25 2015 19:54 KelsierSC wrote: This isn't going to lead to anything productive so I think it's best to just end it here. It can be interpreted in both ways: town not wanting to shit the thread, or scum deflecting pressure. Since Kelsier already displayed the deflection behaviour, the second option is more likely. 3) Wanting to lynch me then backtracking when having no reasons to + Show Spoiler + */ even longer nested quote */ The progression is this, for people that doesn't want to read the posts: Kelsier says he doesn't like me and he would lynch me happily. I ask him why he doesn't like me. He says everything I post looks stupid. I asked him what is stupid in them and why does that makes me mafia. He said it doesn't make me mafia but he would lynch me anyway, and that he is annoyed because idiots (like me) are annoying him, but never says what are the problems with my posts. He then comes to the thread and says he wants to lynch "hopeless, clarity, obi and bf", not wanting to lynch me. It's simple: he said he didn't like me hoping to have me as an option for mislynch. When I confront it, he says I look stupid but he forgets it's something he doesn't believe is alignment indicative for me. Then he says he would lynch me anyway implying that I annoy him. Well, I wasn't raising suspicions on him since that time. Now I've being pressuring him for the rest of day1 and he doesn't want to lynch me anymore LOL. He is not annoyed with it. What I mean with this is: his actions does not follows his discourse, which is mostly a scum trait. Add to this the fact that he answers almost NOTHING of my posts directed to him. He just deflects them, adding to point (2) of this case. 4) HE IS VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT HE IS FUCKING VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT. SCOTT WAS THE FIRST GUY TO ANNOY HIM (AND KELSIER WOULD LYNCH PEOPLE DOING THAT)! Why he doesn't prefer a scott lynch? Hell, a lot of people thinks he is mafia! Instead of going against the guy that certainly looked as mafia for him, he is going against questionmark!Tofu. More than that, he wasn't advocating for a lynch on Scott, but opened a range of possible lynches he would go against (tofu, scott, obi, clarity). IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE, PEOPLE! COME ON!!! + Show Spoiler [WIFOM] + Points on Kelsier were brought many times and no one quickly jumped on it, not even Scott, who was suspicions on Kelsier in the first place. The quick and unreasonable town reads Kelsier got points out that scum didn't want him as a possible mislynch. I am POSITIVE Kelsier is mafia. Vote him with me. ##Vote: KelsierSC | ||
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On October 31 2015 04:05 gumshoe wrote: Hey chrom, this ones directed at you, remember when you asked Onegu a question and vivax swooped in? this felt super scummy too me on multiple levels. 1: If hes scum with Onegu, maybe hes trying to stop him from saying something stupid seeing as hes probally dead today anyways? 2: Hes trying to crumb more on you, as he has been all game, and kinda on bh as well. 3: rehashing info is a great way for scum to look like they are contributing. just gave me chills at the time / : I don't think that post was particularly scummy. If he wants to stop Onegu from saying something he would just say in the scum qt. I didn't really think he was using it to push me either. | ||
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On October 31 2015 04:12 Xatalos wrote: I'll really feel bad for Chromatically if GB is town see you already know what it's like when your 97% scum read flips town | ||
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I still think Vivax is town but it's possible he's not by poe, there's just a few things I don't like about him So my plan is lynch GB and Hopeless if GB is somehow town then lynch Hopeless and Vivax probably because of D3 votes if Hopeless is somehow town then reevaluate everyone hard but probably still lynch GB and Vivax GB is 200% scummier than Vivax | ||
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also I'm totally okay with either GB or Hopeless, slight preference for GB but I don't think there's any real reason for that other than "information" and he's more likely to wiggle out of it later | ||
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From GB's perspective though, Hopeless should be like 100% mafia because he randomly came into the thread and voted on the town wagon instead of mafia, so that doesn't make any sense. | ||
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On November 01 2015 01:02 Hopeless1der wrote: ##vote: GlowingBear | ||
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I'm fine lynching Hopeless today though, that's probably the "correct" move given that he probably literally isn't going to post today now that he's voted. I do agree with Vivax's desire to see whether the wagons were M-T or T-T, but in either case we should lynch Hopeless so I don't think it actually matters that much. GB just has to be lynched tomorrow. | ||
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On November 01 2015 02:51 gumshoe wrote: I've disagreed with almost all those reasons : P gb just doesn't strike me as the guy I've been playing against. Hes put too much effort into a game that could be easily as seen as lost from the get go. I just dont get how he thought he could win day 1 with a team of hopeless and onegu by playing such an agro style / : like, when I look at gb, I see someone who is just begging to be lynched constantly with his play(coming out with a case against me of all things yesterday -_-) but if your right about his team, hes not bieng an lightning rod for anyone, onegu and hopeless get lynched no matter what, so who is he tanking for? Whats more he IS playing the game, I think your a bit biased by his meta, from a totally neutral standpoint hes been very active and engaging, usually answering all questions directed at him. I just dont see it man, hes playing as if the game isn't lost , especially his big anti me post yesterday, why put in all that stupid effort just to flip and basically prove it all to be bullshit Hes making a post that will make absolutely no difference if he flips scum, so clearly he must think hes going to survive right? But if your right, his own two teamates were bussing him, and they never stopped bussing him 0_0 So gb puts a ton of effort into a case that wont make even make a ripple let alone a wave if he flips scum, on the off chance that town would save him while his own mates were bussing? I just dont buy it, I would expect something like Onegu's pity post any day, but not a whole frikin case that only matters on the off chance that I live when my own team has given up on me -_-. Meanwhile, we have onegu pleading, screaming wifom, and hopeless bending backwards to justify why his null read is his scum read and his should be scum read is a null read. and of course dont forgot Vivax's last second attempt to sway xata -_- Too much effort was put in by all our suspects for a lynch that supposedly didn't fucking matter 0_0 its just not consistent chrom, I checked vivax's games, hes fully capable of playing an active scum game like this / : you should check him out for yourself. I mean... effort does not equal town. For example. I put a lot of effort in regardless of my alignment. I agree that it would have been pretty demoralizing to play the game through with Onegu and Hopeless as your mafia partners (assuming that that's the world), but clearly the mafia IS playing the game and hasn't given up. GB fits that description just as well as Vivax or anyone else. Maybe you could characterize GB as having an "aggro style". but going after people and arguing with them is something that mafia can do and have to do. If you don't do anything in the thread, then you'll obviously get lynched. I can talk specifically with his post about you he made. Why is he more likely to put effort in there as town or as mafia? As mafia, he wants to seem like he's town by pushing to survive, and making posts like that is one of the ways he can seem town. In addition, he probably thinks that he can carry the game better than Onegu can, so he legitimately wants Onegu lynched over him. Putting "effort" in when you're about to be lynched is not a town tell; I would have put in a lot of effort in that position as mafia too. You said that I'm "biased" by his meta, but you don't explain why it's bias. The meta is a very legitimate point against GB. You're similarly using meta as a point against Vivax, but I found his meta pretty inconclusive for me. I did check it out for myself and made a post about it a while ago. He could be playing like this as mafia, but his meta doesn't show that he's more likely to be mafia. With GB, the meta does. | ||
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On November 01 2015 05:45 gumshoe wrote: For the bias aspect, I checked out gbs games, you only mentioned 6 of them but hes played at close to 30 -_- I checked the games where hes about to get lynched, when hes scum its more like "wow you guys are so bad for voting me" its all about protecting himself, but yesterday he was pretty much resigned to dying, and was more concerned with pushing a scum read before he died. Which is more in line with his town games I've found. Also your argument he was trying to convince town with effort is kinda bull, his own teamers were totally bussing him, it was as grim a situation as it gets, scum gb would spend his last moments yelling at town for thier incompetence, not trying to "solve" the game / : also out of the 7 scum games he played, only one of them has had as much activity as hes shown this game / : his push vs me was all caps and hyperbole. his filter is higher than his scum average his "last moments" are more in line with town gb all in all, his meta seems more in his favour than anything else / : but maybe thats just mah bias. I'll take your main points one by one here. "Only once had this much activity as mafia before" and "filter is higher than the scum average" That's because there's only two games where he gets to the end of D3 as mafia. Same with the point about scum filter average, you're not taking into account game length. Here are the stats from the 5 most recent town games where he gets to end of D3, and the only 2 mafia games where he does: Pages of filter at the end of D3: Town: 10 pgs -Student 27 pgs -Himalayas 11 pgs -Assassination 12 pgs -Down Under 8 pgs -Hammertime Average: 13.6 pgs Mafia: 9 pgs -GoT 11 pgs -LXVIII Average: 10 pgs I'll concede that the activity isn't a point for him to be lynched anymore (the difference isn't large enough and not enough mafia games), but it's not a point in his favor either like you say it is. "Last moments are more in line with town GB" First of all-- of course his teammates would be bussing him, the lynch was between two mafia (assuming GB was mafia); there was no choice! If GB spends his last moments yelling at town, maybe he gets lynched there. Instead, he wants to look as townie as possible, which means posting things relevant to scumhunting. More importantly, I think you've seriously mischaracterized GB's meta. You say that he does the "you guys are bad" thing more often as mafia, but I see him do it as town too (although he does do it as mafia too, so I would say it's not alignment-indicative for him). In fact, as mafia, he pushes scumreads just like you say he wouldn't. Examples (I took one quote from each of the three most recent games where he was lynched as each alignment): Town where he calls the town bad: On June 25 2015 11:53 GlowingBear wrote: townies that mislynched me, know that I will send PM's to you each day, for 365 days after endgame, reminding you how bad you are. Mark my words. The North remembers. On February 01 2015 11:21 GlowingBear wrote: UNVOTE RIGHT NOW YOU STUPID THIS IS LYLO AND YOU'RE THROWING THE GAME OUT On November 29 2014 07:20 GlowingBear wrote: Mislynch damdred then. Or me. I don't fucking care anymore. Mafia where he posts scumreads as he's about to be lynched: On July 07 2015 06:11 GlowingBear wrote: This is the dumbest shit you have said all game If the guy is a tracker he is obviously thinking about who might be delivering kp. This is such a poor argument that it can't be coming from town wave. I refuse to believe you can be this bad as town. This is Himalaya all over. Cixah, Wave, Bill Murray In case I really get lynched, this is the scum team. Go against them when I flip, ESPECIALLY Cixah On April 21 2015 05:33 GlowingBear wrote: Fuck this I want to lynch SL first If impossible, I want to lynch HF If impossible, I'll lynch Koshi I will lynch no one else. I'm pretty certain this is the scum team + Koshi is intentionally trying to piss WoS off, reinforcing the argument that Koshi is mafia with them. On April 12 2015 09:10 GlowingBear wrote: Lol thank you, SL. You just showed that palmar listed obi as possible Mafia, never updated this read, but bashes me for voting him. PEOPLE PALMAR AND OBI ARE MAFIA TOGETHER CONSOLIDATE ON PALMAR WITH ME In particular, I think the first mafia post I quoted here is strikingly similar to what he did this game, where he calls out a team and tells the town to go after them if he flips (despite the fact that he is mafia). My point is that mafia GB is perfectly capable of posting scumreads before he flips, as shown here, and that calling the town/people voting him bad is not a mafia-tell for GB (meaning that the fact that he didn't do it this game is irrelevant). "His push vs me was all caps and hyperbole" I don't think allcaps and hyperbole is indicative of town GB at all. GB does the allcaps yelling thing as both alignments. Here's some examples from both alignments, taken from those same games right before he was about to be lynched: Town: On June 25 2015 05:14 GlowingBear wrote: WE ARE LYNCHING HOLYFLARE VOTE HIM RIGHT NOW. On January 31 2015 01:33 GlowingBear wrote: Dude those were TWO QUOTES. TWO QUOTES. SHOW ME ANY EFFORT YOU'VE PUT INTO BRINGING ATTENTION TO YOUR LATE CASE ON ME. PALMAR SAYS WHARRGARBL LYNCH TOAD WHAT DO YOU DO? KEEP SILENT. YOU DON'T SAY "HEY LOOK AT MY CASE AND GIVE THOUGHTS" ARGH On November 29 2014 06:38 GlowingBear wrote: FOR CHRIST SAKE MARV, WHY WOULD I, AS SCUM, GO AGAINST ONE OF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND PERSUASIVE PLAYERS ON THE THREAD? WHY WOULD I TAKE THIS STANCE IF I KNEW DAMDRED WAS GOING TO DIE INSTEAD OF ME? THAT'S EXACTLY THE POSITION SUPERBIA IS IN. HE IS NOT GETTING LYNCHED, THEREFORE, FUCK HIS SCUNREAD, HE'LL JUST STAND BY AND SEE THE GUY I CALLED OUT BEING LYNCHED. Mafia: On July 07 2015 09:43 GlowingBear wrote: I KEEP TELLING YOU "I KNOW CIXAH IS MAFIA, I KNOW CIXAH IS MAFIA" AND YOU CAN'T FUCKING GET ME? GODDAMMIT On April 21 2015 07:38 GlowingBear wrote: EVERYTIME I CAN GET MY PHONE TO CHECK THE THREAD THERE IS HF POSTING THIS STUPID "AFK GB AGAIN LOLOLOL MAFIA" AAAAAARGH YOU COULDN'T EVEN EXPLAIN WHY BEING AFK MAKES ME MAFIA AND YOU FUCKING DIDN'T PROPERLY READ MY CASE ON SL, A CASE THAT EVEN HIIIIIIIMSEEEEEELF COULDN'T CLEAR HIS THOUGHT PROCESS WTF AAAAAAAAAAARGH HOW CAN YOU PEOPLE NOT SEE IT?????????????? On April 21 2015 07:50 GlowingBear wrote: IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ACTIVELY VOTE FOR LYNCHING A TOWN READ THAN BACK OFF CONVINIENTLY AT EOD WHEN KOSHI DIDN'T MAKE SHIT FOR YOU TO FLIP LIKE THAT AND FORM A WAGON ON A TOWNIE UNLESS YOU'RE FUCKING MAFIA WITH KOSHI On April 12 2015 11:42 GlowingBear wrote: HAHAHAHA OBI YOU'RE SO FUCKING MAFIA On April 12 2015 12:36 GlowingBear wrote: DAMDY PLEASE LISTEN I AM TOWN HERE, YOU'RE TUNNELED, PLEASE READ MY ARGUMENTS AGAINST OBI AND VOTE HIM Pushing people with allcaps and hyperbole before he's about to be lynched is definitely not a town tell for GB. Reading the filters, I felt like his pushes as mafia were more similar to his push this game (like the last mafia one quoted here), but you can see if you agree with that for yourself. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/487093-mafia-in-the-himalayas?user=GlowingBear http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475954-hammertime-mafia?user=GlowingBear http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471815-russia-today-mini-mafia?user=GlowingBear (town) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/487695-ot-vs-the-mods-mafia?user=GlowingBear http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/482863-game-of-thrones-mini-mafia?user=GlowingBear http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/480965-mafia-mini-mafia2-another-miniature-game-of-mafia?user=GlowingBear (mafia) And to add on, this is all just talking about meta. We haven't even talked about the other points at all, like: - read on Vivax where the reasons always change but his read stays the same - calls rayn town and then mafia for the same reasons without any sign of reevaluation (says he switched because he was worried about OMGUSing?) - ritoky's read about how he expected GB to play - Onegu never gives a read on GB other than null - doesn't go after Vivax/Hopeless (his scumreads from all game) when he should know the wagons were town-mafia on D3 - marv, rayn, Xatalos (confirmed town, strong players that were night killed) all thought that GB was mafia | ||
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I've been thinking a lot about the D3 lynch, I think I have nice flowchart-type things of what to do and how logical certain teams are depending on the flip we get next. I don't think that they're super relevant at this moment though. If anyone has a preference as to Hopeless or GB today, then say it now. The only worry I have about Hopeless today is trying to get gumshoe to vote GB tomorrow in the case where Hopeless is town and sends us into LYLO. | ||
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On November 02 2015 01:39 gumshoe wrote: ... hes done this twice -_- dumped a ton of effort into reads that dont matter if he flips scum, which he must assume will happen because his buddies have bussed him 2 days in a row. Hes more concerned with us taking him seriusly after hes dead than trying to stay alive. thats not scum He is perfectly capable of doing this as mafia, I quoted it to you. Putting effort into the game when you're about to be lynched is not a town tell (in general, but also for GB specifically). | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:01 gumshoe wrote: To chrom, let me tell ya about voting : P not mafia voting, I mean voting voting. Everyone should do it right? Its a tiny little thing that has a good chance to improve your overall life, so why dont we? Why is only seventy percent voter turn out considered a good thing? Also why is higher voter turnouts considered bad for the people in power? Its because as a whole we dont act unless we have too, and we know our actions will make a difference. Thats why effort is townie, it's hard to bring yourself to write up massive cases that you know is bullshit, thats why scummers end games with 5 page filters while towners have 30. as for you argument hes was trying to convince us to spare him through effort. 1: the case was against me -_- the guy most likely to spare him, 2: it was pretty terrible. 3: not once this game has anyone been swayed by the pants on head logic, so there's was no reason to think it would work now. I dont see how gb thought he was going to live with his own teamates bussing him and by accusing his ally AND by having a shit argument. More likely? He just thought he was gonna flip town and blow the whole case wide open post mortem / : By writing arguments like that, he looks like he's trying to find mafia, which will make people think that he is town. That's why people do that when they're about to be lynched, so they can look more town. The point isn't that he was hoping to convince people to vote you over him, he was hoping that people would look at his case and think, "oh that's a townie thing to do". The fact that his argument was bad should be a point against him, not for him. | ||
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On November 02 2015 01:33 gumshoe wrote: sigh, gb has no way to win this game if hes scum, his actions are no consistent with a scummer whose about to die and invalidate all his reads / : like theres still confidence in his voice cause he thinks town can win, if hes scum with hopeless his tone would be much diffrent? But maybe I'm reading his voice all wrong T_T(this would be so much easier to acertain and convince people of in voice or video / : its just hard to translate a tone read) If gb was scum with hopeless and onegu, why did he shoot rayn? Clearly onegu did it for cred but he claims this looks bad on hopeless, We can't know why rayn was killed, but it could just be very simple reasons. Maybe Onegu did it so he could make that argument in the thread, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the other mafia at all. Or maybe it was something else, like GB wanted to kill one of the people who was going after him hard in the thread. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:13 gumshoe wrote: See, I read gb as a pretty emotional player, I cant see him doing that when his own team is bussing him in such a derpy fashion when it was all likely for not / : I've read his scum games, hes not that good an actor, show me one time he was in such a situation and he had the balls to attack the guy he had the best shot of convincing with a case that big. If you can demonstrate capacity, I'll concede, but otherwise his scum play this game is an anomaly, that and as much you might hate to admit, the derpiest player is usually town, does that suck? Yes, but that doesn't make it less true / : I don't understand what you mean about his team "bussing him in a derpy fashion". I've explained that if GB is mafia, then the lynch was two mafia. This means that Onegu/Hopeless (assuming Hopeless mafia) would have no choice but to vote for a mafia. Honestly, I really don't have the time to go into every game where he was up for lynch, find out who his biggest defender was, and then see if GB attacked them. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:14 Blazinghand wrote: I still feel good about GB/H1 scum. I understand there's some people feeling unconfident here but we just need to stay the course. This might be the last day we're able to lynch GB, too-- people who are scumreading him have been getting shot over time. Regardless, I'm figuring we lynch GB and H1 and win the game. And, as you said, even if one of them is town, it's almost certain they're not BOTH town. Yep, I'm still on the GB/Hopeless idea too. I'm just arguing for the cases where it's not true, we should still lynch the other one and they shouldn't both be town. I have to go for a few hours before the lynch so I'll probably move over to GB before then since that's what it's looking like. Prevent shenannies or something I guess? | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:15 Blazinghand wrote: I think it would be a mistake to overspeculate on the rayn nk, but I will note that there's nothing inherently wrong with it with a GB/1G/H1 team. Like, yeah, rayn wasn't captain mcuseful but those guys could have shot him, and 1G certainly had a reason to if nothing else Yeah, it's not a point in favor of GB being mafia, just trying to show that it's not a reason that GB is town either. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:29 gumshoe wrote: Onegu: guys I wanna kill rayn cause it looks good on me but bad on you! gb: You do that bro! your our only hope! do whatever you can to win : D I cant see it -_- if gb is scum hes the most active by far, he would decide the shot for certain, especially because he would have hopless's support (the rayn shot was bad for him according to onegu) We keep bending over backwards to justify how Gb is playing this obscure wifom game, when it's really just more likely that theres was someone who didnt suffer from the rayn shot along with onegu / : Or maybe it's: GB: "rayn is really pushing me hard, let's kill him" Onegu: "aww but he's defending me" Or maybe it's: GB: "rayn is really annoying, let's kill him" Onegu: "yeah he is" Or maybe it's a whole bunch of different things that we can't actually know. We have no clue what would happen. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:35 gumshoe wrote: the emotions were wrong scum emotions: lol you guys so bad, im a dt bros dont shoot me directed at self protection town emotions: im gonna die, better contribute. directed at post mortem contribution in gbs state, I dont think he would honestly put the effort in to do the latter(especially given the case he brought up) if his team was bussing him and all of town pretty much wanted him dead. Real talk: I am a mediocre player when it comes to finding scum, but I am insanely good whenever this situation pops up, the people I defend in this fashion are town almost 100 percent of the time, that doesnt save them because I'm not the best at convincing others / : also gb is def one of the dodgier clients ive defended. That said, I'm not asking you to not kill gb if thats what you have to do, just dont kill gb right now because there is doubt. Whereas with hopeless, the only people showing doubt are the suspects / : I quoted a bunch of posts that show that those emotions are not accurate to his alignment! As mafia, he has contributed as he's being lynched. As town, he has called people bad as he's being lynched. He does both as either alignment. | ||
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I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification. I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday. Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched. So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:50 gumshoe wrote: sure we can lynch gb tommorow, as I dont see vivax getting lynched till lylo(you want a slippery one, there ya go). But yeah, we need to kill hopeless today, gb and vivax arent scum together so hopeless must be. Yeah... although it's technically possible the team is something insane like GB+ritoky I guess? It's pretty hard to see a world where it's not Hopeless (although it's pretty hard for me to see not GB too). I'm just worried that you won't go on GB again tomorrow gumshoe, you betrayed me once before after yamato . | ||
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On November 02 2015 00:46 GlowingBear wrote: After I die, think twice before doing meta cases. Hint: they suck. Gut feelings say hopeless is town. Facts point out to him being mafia (him voting me like that today is bad). If you trust gumshoe's appeal to me, he is town. If not, he is always mafia with Onegu. I trust it. I don't think someone can get that low and swear on the life of others and be lying. Really, this is my reason to town read him. After I die, kill Vivax. Then think twice about BH. I'm town. If I die today, will you reach MYLO? If yes, kill Vivax. If no, get rid of hopeless so you guys can clear your heads. Read the latest student mafia so you can see I can be this burned out as town. I was town there. I will vote Vivax because he keeps saying he is ready to in scum read me and was going against gumshoe automatically after I've brought that case. There was no real interaction between them before he decided my case was good and no tral interaction before he decided gumshoe was town again and I was mafia. He's most likely to be mafia after all. ##Vote: Vivax Still, I have no idea why I'm mafia besides the meta case. Can anyone elaborate on this? What does the underlined mean here? | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:05 gumshoe wrote: I'm sorry ) : your right I do owe you one, if you really really really wanna kill gb I wont oppose it ok? It's just not the optimal move ) : also if the team could BE something with ritoky, wouldnt it be better to know now before lylo? Gb's kill doesn't tell us anything about that T_T I'm not entirely sure what the correct move is here. GB's kill would tell us about the wagons yesterday (which we don't get form Hopeless), so that we can start considering bus possibilities if GB was town? The only way lynching one of them before the other is a problem is if both of them are town. So, we should lynch whichever one will give us the best information to decide if the other one could be town. If GB is town, then we can start considering whether the team was stacked on him (with Hopeless) or if it's some crazy bus (even though we should lynch Hopeless next anyway). If Hopeless is town, then... I don't think we get very much about other from that? Lynching for information feels bad but I think it's the best tiebreaker? | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote: I totally forgot about this T_T I will vote for whatever chrom votes today, but let it be known that Hopeless is objectively the best kill : P Yeah lol you shouldn't do this, vote who you want. It's good that there's at least a discussion about it. (maybe I'll call it in tomorrow though) On November 02 2015 03:09 Vivax wrote: Yes ritoky should be here choosing the guy to vote. It makes me uncomfortable he's afk since he proclamed himself conf town. I agree with this, I was very confident that he was town but him being MIA makes me uncomfortable here. Probably nothing but I had the same feeling. | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote: Hopeless is always a question mark. If you can afford a second mislynch (after I die), go for hopeless. If not, then go for Vivax which I think is way scummier. Guys, is this a scumslip? If you're town, then we're in LYLO and can't afford a mislynch after GB dies. If you're mafia, then we can afford a mislynch after GB dies. Maybe he just isn't thinking about the game at all and didn't count the number of players left..? But why would he even bring up the scenario that we could have another mislynch after him? If he's mafia and forgot that he has to count himself as a mislynch? | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: GlowingBear | ||
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gumshoe, you are a superior being to me. | ||
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On November 02 2015 09:10 Blazinghand wrote: it might make most sense to post them all right b4 EoN Yep, that's what I'm planning on doing. | ||
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Why I am assuming Hopeless is mafia Hopeless is not playing this game at all, voted on the town in a town-mafia wagon on D3, does not have a particularly townie filter, and, due to the fact that he is not playing the game, will lose the game for town in LYLO/final three by not knowing who to vote. I think if Hopeless is town, town has lost this game already because there is no way Hopeless does not get lynched at all this game AND finds the last mafia in final three. In addition, from my perspective if Hopeless was town, that means that at least one mafia was on Onegu D3 (since me and Vivax are the only other people on the GB wagon). If one mafia was on Onegu, then why would Vivax push GB so hard if they were bussing? That leads me to believe that, in a world where Hopeless is town, that TWO mafia were probably on Onegu. I don't see any way that this is possible because I don't think that BH or gumshoe can be mafia. So, for a lot of reasons, Hopeless has to be the lynch tomorrow. In the rest of this post, I'm assuming that Hopeless is mafia. Vote Count Stuff On October 30 2015 07:02 Rels wrote: Day 3 Final Vote Count Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritoky GlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu So, assuming that Hopeless is mafia, there are two options for the D3 votes: bus or no bus. If the last mafia was on GB, then it's Vivax (or me). I think it's pretty unlikely that the last mafia was on Onegu. 4-3 LYLO is an extremely tough prospect (if even one town is wrong, the game is over), and I have to think that mafia would want to put us there if at all possible. I explained earlier that I think everyone on the Onegu wagon had decent enough reason to switch over to GB (BH was saying that both were mafia, gumshoe was voting GB earlier, ritoky was on GB hard), but they didn't switch. Mafia could have put us in 4-3 LYLO with minimal suspicion on themselves, but they chose not to for some reason? Plus, everyone on that wagon was being read as strongly town already, so there was no need to bus for town cred. But, in the case the last mafia was on Onegu, who is the most likely bus? Consider that if Hopeless is mafia, he came in and threw a vote down on the town wagon. If mafia was planning to bus D3, they would have told Hopeless to vote Onegu and get cred from it. The fact that Hopeless didn't do this means that either a) Hopeless is paying literally 0 attention to scum qt (possible I guess) or b) the bus on Onegu was completely unplanned. The only person who's vote was unplanned was, of course, ritoky. In addition, BH and gumshoe were going after Onegu for a while before D3. I have an extremely hard time believing that they were doing some sort of crazy long-term bus play on their whole team. So IF mafia was on Onegu, I think it has to be ritoky. I don't think that it's totally unreasonable that ritoky busses Onegu. He knows Onegu is going down at some point, so he wants to ride the game out on town cred. Maybe they thought that 4-3 LYLO wouldn't be that bad for town since Onegu and Hopeless were probably getting lynched next regardless, and ritoky just wanted the most town cred for final three. That's the tinfoil scenario I'm entertaining now, but I don't see it as particularly likely. Straight reads BH: I think BH is never mafia in this game. He's been legitimately going after Onegu and Hopeless the whole game. D1 shenannies onto Onegu were actually a real possibility, he pushed Onegu D2, he planned shenannies onto Hopeless D2, pushed the lynch through on D3. He even said that there were two scum up for lynch in Onegu and GB, but chose to push Onegu and stay on him the whole time. It's possible the shennanies were all not going to happen and Onegu was a planned bus and everything, but I think it's extremely unlikely. Plus, he's posting a lot of sensible analysis and scumhunting. He's been on the exact same page as me for most of the game (he says exactly what I'm thinking a lot). gumshoe: I also don't think there's any way gumshoe is mafia. He's been super active, posting lots of analysis, pushing his reads (which he feels strongly about). Right after yamato was lynched, he started pushing Onegu and Hopeless and hasn't stopped. He's been actively working against the GB lynch, which I see absolutely no reason for mafia to do (they could say they don't support it, but going that in depth on a defense is totally unnecessary). He voted Onegu early on in D3, switched to GB a bit, but then chose to switch back to Onegu. Why do this at all if you're mafia? As mafia, he would have either chose to bus Onegu and stuck there (and told Hopeless to vote there too), or to act really uncertain about the lynch and have his vote land on GB. I don't see any reason for mafia gumshoe to flop around like he did, before bussing his partner. In addition, he's way more active than his previous mafia games. ritoky: ritoky I think is the most viable alternative to Vivax as mafia, mostly because I think he's the only mildly realistic bus on Onegu. However, I think his play has been town overall. He's been posting his thought process a lot and it seems like town thinking about the game, he's had a relaxed, town tone the whole game, and he's been very interested in finding mafia. On D3, he ends up hard defending Onegu, and I feel like mafia wouldn't hard defend Onegu as much as he did (he comments multiple times on it, so he would look terrible when Onegu flips) when they would be able to see that Onegu is going down at some point this game. Then, he yolo switches onto Onegu, which could theoretically be a bus so he can ride the game out on town cred as explained above. However, I think the thought process for his switch, shown in his posts before he switches, makes sense from a town perspective. In addition, he switched to Onegu D1 with BH, which seems like a super unnecessary risk to take as mafia because I think the D1 shenannies had a decent chance to actually happen. He was tinfoiling a lot earlier about who is mafia with GB, which just seems weird to do when you know GB is town. In Onegu's filter, he pushes ritoky a mild amount, disagreed with my read on him, and blatantly says things like "ritoky moving to Onegu D1 should not get him a townread", which makes me feel like they are not as likely of partners. This could just be wrong and Onegu was calling out his partner a lot (he never pushed to lynch ritoky), but I feel like it isn't. If his team is ritoky/Hopeless, that would mean that he was calling out his whole team for a while which I just feel like is unlikely. The night actions are mildly incriminating for ritoky (rayn was suspecting ritoky for a while and Xatalos was the most convinced that ritoky could be mafia), but that could just be WIFOM. Overall, I think it's possible that ritoky is the last mafia, but pretty unlikely. I think he's the only one that could have bussed Onegu in my opinion, but I don't see any reason to believe that Onegu was a bus. I think ritoky has been pretty town this whole game in his play and willingness to figure out the game. Vivax: Vivax is definitely the most likely mafia at this point. The biggest point against him is the association with Onegu. He's made very little comment on Onegu/Hopeless, and certainly hasn't pushed them for lynch. On D3, when Onegu is up for lynch, Vivax never gives a real read on him despite the fact that he's a main wagon. He ends up on the GB (town) wagon, and he is pretty strongly pushing it (told Xatalos to get on the GB wagon) despite the fact that he doesn't have a townread on Onegu (in fact he says that "Onegu isn't a bad lynch"). Onegu gives literally no read on Vivax in his entire filter. He just says that he'll "trust yamato's read" early on. I thought his reasons for scumreading gumshoe didn't make much sense and were based on essentially one post. His read progression on GB was a little strange. N1 he has a huge scumread on GB, but when D2 rolls around he downgrades it to kind of a mild suspicion because of something BH posted, and switches to yamato. On D3 he says GB is 100% mafia for meta reasons, which I would think he should have already seen earlier? This could mean that Vivax, as mafia, doesn't care enough about the lynch between two towns (yamato/GB) to fight the lynch on D2, but pushes the GB lynch when Onegu (mafia) is up as the wagon. I also didn't like his read progression on me. He accused me early in D1 (which I think was fair), but when my play picked up N1 and D2 his read didn't change and he still said that I had low thread interaction despite the fact that I had been discussing with a lot of people (maybe I'm being biased here?). I also thought it was weird that he was "freaked out" by my persistence on GB over yamato when it should have been clear why. He could have just been trying to make me look worse and keep me as a mislynch. A lot of it is also PoE. I think that everyone else has posted a lot of town thought processes, and Vivax hasn't done that as much for me. Some points in favor of him being town: - It seems a little weird for mafia to really try and save Onegu when he was going to be lynched at some point. - He answered the question I asked to Onegu, which I feel like mafia wouldn't do because it would feel like too much association to them? - I like that he picked ritoky as his person to push, because I would be having the same thought in his position as town. However, I think he has done more sketchy things than anyone else in the game and I would bet on him being the last mafia at this point. Overall: I think BH and gumshoe are very town, both from play and from the fact that they are highly unlikely to be mafia with Onegu. I think Hopeless needs to be lynched next, he should be mafia. I don't think that town can win if Hopeless is town. I think ritoky has played townier than Vivax this game, so I think Vivax is most likely the last mafia. The fact that Vivax tried to save Onegu seems weird to me, so I'm paranoid that ritoky decided to go full yolo and bus Onegu unplanned, but I don't think there's a good reason to believe that Onegu was bussed instead of mafia simply voting on GB. Right now, I think I'm at 90% Hopeless + Vivax and 10% Hopeless + ritoky. I'm definitely not done evaluating, though, and the good news is we should have a lot of time to figure it out. | ||
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##Vote: Hopeless1der | ||
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This'll be really disappointing if Hopeless is somehow town because I think there's literally no way we can avoid lynching him here. | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:12 Blazinghand wrote: Hmm, I hadn't approached it from that second perspective. I don't think it's a good idea to dig into that necessarily. I think in general though whether vivax is scum OR town, it's was fairly clear ritoky was unlynchable. Gumshoe and I both look good for lynching 1G over GB. Ritoky, though, he jumped over at the last minute and made a difference; he was pretty much unlynchable. Vivax pushing on him, hard, and failing to convince ANYONE showed that pretty much no matter what Ritoky wouldn't get lynched. If Vivax is scum, he probably realized he didn't have a good way of breaking off the attack, but killing Ritoky is a good idea because Ritoky is unlynchable anyways. If Vivax is town, similar logic applies; whoever is scum with H1 probably did some thinking and decided that Ritoky wasn't lynchable and needed to be shot. "Would scum Vivax shoot the guy he's pushing, to make himself look better, because it's not something scum would do?" is probably the classic example of WIFOM and shouldn't be thought about TOO much except to make sure that it really is WIFOM. So Chrom, what do you think of my toneread of Vivax? Take a look at his posts right after the Onegu flip, and how he's angry rather than pleased. Do you agree? I mean, I would have said that ritoky was the most lynchable out of the three of you for the kind of stuff I talk about in that big post. I don't see you/gumshoe pushing Onegu/Hopeless for days and not telling Hopeless to get in on that action, whereas I thought it was possible that ritoky just bussed on impulse at the last second. But I agree that it's probably not too useful to overanalyze it. I'm not sure what I think of it. I don't feel like mafia Vivax would have been "angry" at you for lynching mafia (as mafia, I don't really feel angry at townies for lynching my partners), but I could see him as mafia getting salty about Onegu getting barely lynched over GB for what he thinks are not good reasons (mafia get mad about being lynched for bad reasons). Maybe he was just annoyed at you for not being on his lynch for bad reasons though. I'm not convinced that it's too alignment-indicative. Wouldn't mafia be careful to not show their emotions in the thread if they were mad after a mafia lynch? The stranger part about it, I think, is that it seems like Vivax really wanted GB over Onegu but didn't really have an opinion on Onegu. | ||
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gumshoe actually pushed Onegu and Hopeless D1 (like, a lot), essentially from his first few posts, and he's the first to say that he would be down switching to Onegu "to spare slam and rayn", not something I see mafia ever saying. This post was super town too, consider that it describes exactly what he's done this game: On October 22 2015 08:59 gumshoe wrote: No,simply that you should acknowledge that your bad at reading my alignment when im actually playing / : similar to how I'm actually shit at catching mafia in general. Historically all my big cases that I've dumped a ton of passion and love in to have been ugly busts. I'm taking a more dispassionate stance this game and though I will certainly provide reads free of charge I rather not be pushed incessantly to do so and become enamored with my own garbage. I'm kinda tired of being the proto pants on head townie, whose only use is to prove his townie alignment via his imaginative stupidity. I'm playing to win this time : P so when and if I have good reads, you'll hearem(may very well just sheep / . For now I think chrome is scum based off what I said before, but that might change if the situation calls for it.Bh is probally town (i liked the answers he gave and read his filter a bit more), Ritoky is town, your a meanie and everyone else except chrome is not particularly notable. BH's vote switch onto Onegu didn't seem as likely to go through as I remember it being (it started from 9 on Slam/0 on Onegu, and ended at 7 Slam/3 Onegu). But, it would be super risky to do as mafia because not many people had expressed a desire to not lynch Onegu (basically everyone except rayn and marv were possible switchers onto Onegu), so BH really had no way of knowing how many people would switch with him. And, BH had a scumread on both me and Onegu at the time. As mafia, it would be much safer to push shenannies on me first if he's just doing it to look active than risk actually killing his partner. Vivax doesn't seem anywhere near as townie as people thought he was on D1, I'm not sure why everyone gave him that town read. When everyone is expressing whether or not they want to switch to Onegu (me, marv, Xatalos all explicitly say that we don't want to), Vivax only says this, without committing to a stance on it. On October 24 2015 05:49 Vivax wrote: what are theae onegu hipster votea Already said that Hopeless' D1 just feels like he's going around asking a bunch of useless questions to look active. Awkward interaction for bonus points: On October 23 2015 05:57 Hopeless1der wrote: Are you trying to get spite lynched? I may not be the most suited to make threats, but if you continue to play up the bravado without contributing I will fully support lynching you. I guess I don't really need to convince anyone with this post but I thought I'd say what I found anyway. Going to keep reading through the game over the next few days. | ||
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On October 23 2015 11:59 GlowingBear wrote: ... ~ Could lynch harder: Onegu (I can never read him and I hated that he said he would sheep me - gives me deja vu from last game where he was mafia against me - him being more invested in this game is usually a bad sign) Hopeless1der (useless - feels like his play in Avogadro's Mini Mafia) Vivax (I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated ... This was pretty funny too. Whoopsies sorry GB! | ||
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I almost forgot how seriously hard gumshoe was pushing the yamato case and hard defending GB. Like, as mafia he spent so so long hard defending a mislynch and pushing his own mislynch which really doesn't make sense. He literally posted pictures of sheep pens to try and get me and GB to follow him, and I can't see him doing that as mafia. Especially since there was no reason to push yamato over GB for mafia. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=94 I think a lot of important things happened in these next few pages. First, the BH-Onegu interaction at the bottom of the page did not look like mafia-mafia to me. Here's the full conversation if you're too lazy to click the link: + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 26 2015 14:31 Blazinghand wrote: Well, he hasn't voted or posted in the past like 2 or 3 days, right? Although there's no hard activity requirement in this game, you are required to vote. He may jsut be modkilled. I don't even know why I'm reasoning with you Onegu but, couldn't we just shenannie onto Hopeless if he comes back? cause otherwise we should just let him get MKed if you do want to actually lynch Hopeless (and I can't tell anything from his filter other than that he seemed vaguely itnerested in the game then never tried and stopped posting) you have to commit to shennannying at the deadline if he's gonna get modkilled, Onegu The reason I bring this up is because I'm imagining the following situation: We pull together a wagon on someone and lynch him, and then you never come back all day and hopeless1 gets modkilled, and you do not particupate in the town discourse all day and we don't know anything about you, and you never had to take any stances.... So here's what Iwant from you, 1gu: a commitment to shenannie if Hopeless1 isn't going to get modkill, and you take part in the day's discussions. What do you say? On October 26 2015 14:33 Blazinghand wrote: Come on, you were here like 120 seconds ago you can't pretend to be gone now On October 26 2015 14:44 Onegu wrote: I am sleeping now. On October 26 2015 14:46 Blazinghand wrote: no wait you can't just unvote you also have to like, talk about things On October 26 2015 14:47 Onegu wrote: Dont worry BH we have plenty of time. I will be here in the morning. On October 26 2015 14:50 Blazinghand wrote: *sobs* BH then uses this interaction as another point in his scumread on Onegu, and puts a vote on Onegu. At the same time, Vivax comes in and tries to put suspicion on BH for not "contributing to finding mafia", without commenting on Onegu at all (this is top of pg 95). + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 17:16 Vivax wrote: The fun to play. Good to know you're around BH, why suggest shenannies on hopeless without really making a decision in the GB + yamato set of options? You know it's way easier to just join one of the camps for a successful scum lynch than suggest hopeless who is more coinflippy? On October 26 2015 17:20 Blazinghand wrote: The point is that hopeless is a bad lynch and onegu was opting out of the discourse by voting him. Onegu reacted by unvoting him and leaving. Do you not understnad what I'm saying? Can you not wrap your head around that? Let me lay it out real simple for you 1. 1gu shows up, ignores everyone, votes Hopeless1 who hasn't posted and is likely to get modkilled 2. 1gu decided to peace out 3. I am like "ok dude that is not acceptable. You want to lynch Hopeless1? fine, we'll do it by shenannies if we have to. It's a crap idea to vote him though cause he's probably getting modkilled. either be on him and be ready to shenanny off, or get off him and join the discourse" 4. 1gu is like "haha no i'm just gonna peace and not talk about anything, likely because I am scum" 5. Vivax comes in, and, unable to see due to the pantaloons firmly wrapped around his face, says that I suggested shenannies on hopeless "without really making a decision in GB + yamato" which while not literally false (since I haven't weighed in there yet) definitely misrepresents what I did 6. BH points out that Vivax is really bad 7. Vivax apologises profusely On October 26 2015 17:21 Blazinghand wrote: like ylou do understand what 1gu just did right let me make it one hundo percent clear for you then: 1gu just fuckin bailed after being aclled out on opting out of the discourse no thoughts on this vivax? On October 26 2015 17:22 Vivax wrote: BH where is your contribution in finding out who is mafia in all that? I do admit that I was hasty in reading it as you suggesting a hopeless lynch. But that means you didn't suggest anything, you told Onegu how to play the game. On October 26 2015 17:23 Vivax wrote: I don't like the tone of this conversation, there's a dick virus going around in this thread and I already have to fight with a mundane one. On October 26 2015 17:24 Blazinghand wrote: let me show you what's what boyo ##vote Onegu plus I think we both know that I dont' need to do anything to prove myself innocent since I'm getting shot tonight regardless. I am free of the feelings of "pressure" that others may feel since the only guy who might get shot ahead of me normally, rayn, has given up on playing the game. and yes I think rayn is town Vivax votes Onegu early in the day, but moves to GB and then to yamato without really pushing any of them. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=102 Later in the day, Vivax does have this interaction with Onegu (spread over several pages): + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 23:58 Vivax wrote: Wait Onegu you just said you can't do activity reads on yammo but knowing he has free time you say he's null??? Why not mafia? On October 27 2015 00:21 Vivax wrote: Onegu what the flying frisbee did yamato do that was so townie on D1??? This is from your list post. On October 27 2015 00:25 Onegu wrote: Because he had reads and put effort into the game. He can make posts as scum but he doesnt put effort into his posts. I felt he put actuall thought into his reads. Looked townie to me. On October 27 2015 00:28 Vivax wrote: I'm gonna compare his reads to yours from the time in question and tell you if you're mafia in a bit. I already noticed you had opposite reads on GB so you're one step closer to a bad road. On October 27 2015 00:36 Vivax wrote: So this and the GB scumread is the best effort we see from yamato during D1. I bolded everything they should disagree on (and the GB part isn't even included) and I can say with a certain confidence that there's no reason for a town Onegu to blindly trust yamato here, or even give him a town pass for effort when his rayn and marv reads are similarly wishywashy to Onegus. On October 27 2015 00:56 Vivax wrote: What made you feel like he was town? Are you ONegu the second? Everyone's just calling him town on D1 when I see ZERO reasons besides the activity. Like the only reason I ever saw to not lynch yamato was the fact he posted a bit, but there's nothing particularly townie in there. This one is just here to show that Vivax was pressuring Onegu pretty hard here about his yamato read, enough that he brought it up when talking to me. Vivax pressures Onegu a good amount, particularly about his yamato read. Vivax ends up saying that he "can say with a certain confidence that there's no reason for a town Onegu to blindly trust yamato here," which sounds like a pretty strong scumread to me. On October 27 2015 01:20 Vivax wrote: I might not be around at deadline since I'm ill and being ill isn't allowed tomorrow. I would really like to set everything straight with those I think are town long before any shenannies can cause a ruckus way too early before deadline. In the last couple of hours my read on rayn has worsened and the read on GB has improved somewhat. I typed up a question asking him if he still thinks I'm mafia but I figure he still does for some reason. What's good for him is that he's on a good wagon with two who I think are very likely town and myself. Rayn is being a complete dick and I know he likes to do that as mafia. Chrom freaks me out with his persistence on GB over yamato. That said, I wouldn't mind lynching rayn any more, I would even lynch him before GB to make the thread more enjoyable, and cause he doesn't shine town to me as he does to Chrom for some reason. So I'm calling early shenannies on rayn: ##Unvote ##Vote raynpelikoneet However, in his next post, he mentions GB, rayn, and me, and puts a vote on rayn. There isn't even a mention of Onegu. Where did his read go? Then, there are the EoD shenannies planned. Honestly, these Hopeless shenannies look extremely good for BH, way better than the Onegu D1 one. It's not just that BH was idly proposing shenannies onto Hopeless without actually hoping they would happen. On October 27 2015 06:10 Blazinghand wrote: OK, this brings us up to 3-- ritoky, vivax, and myself. The main wagon, the one on Yamato, has 5 votes. If I unvote, it will have 4. So, we need two more commitments, or one commitment from someone on the yam wagon (gum, xat, vivax) This is BH actually counting votes needed for shenannies onto Hopeless. If ANY ONE of gumshoe/Xatalos/Vivax says okay (and it was not at all clear that they wouldn't), BH basically has no choice but to shenannie onto Hopeless. I don't see any way mafia BH would take this huge risk. On October 27 2015 06:37 Blazinghand wrote: If yamato does not come back, and ALSO people are not willing to shennie onto Hope1 or 1gu, I vow on my honor as the shenannigan king that I will shenny onto GlowingBear He also pushes Hopeless and Onegu as the top two shenannies, and GB as the third. BH would have had to be continually trying to push shenannies onto no one but his teammates, as mafia, when I think it was extremely possible that one more person went onto Hopeless and he got lynched, or that a bunch of people wanted to lynch Onegu (which they did) and stated their support for a switch. On October 27 2015 06:51 gumshoe wrote: I think Xatalos has it right, everyone should get off Gb right now, because if yam flips scum off mod kill, we do not to ever lynch gb The choice now should be the following- Do we go for the double kill and lynch hopeless or Onegu? 2 players we all agree are fairly sketch. Or do we play it safe and just lynch Yam in case he comes back, taking into consideration that Rayn is awful and our town tomorrow could be to shitty to lead another lynch. These are the two best options, nothing else should be considered atm. gumshoe, likewise, is okay with shenannies onto Onegu and Hopeless, but against shenannies onto anyone else. He would have to be supporting literally only bussing his partners, rather than using his really strong push against yamato as a reason to be very anti-shenannies (which he could have done). Vivax's reaction, as people are discussing where to shennanie: On October 27 2015 06:53 Vivax wrote: Keep your votes on yam and don't be stupid please. This has been scum shenanny for a few times lately to pretend you're gonna get modkilled and then ninjavote. Vivax is very against it, which could make sense from a town perspective (I was against it as well, and I still maintain that a voteswitch in that position would have been objectively suboptimal). However, Vivax's complete unwillingness to consider any kind of shenannies fits much more with a potential-shenannied Onegu-Hopeless team than BH's push for the shenannies and gumshoe's willingness to consider it. Overall, no radical new conclusions from D2, but some additional evidence for BH and gumshoe being town and a bit more for Vivax being mafia. | ||
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I think rereading the game is really good for getting a new perspective on things, now that we know almost all of the alignments, so that's why I've been doing that. #maximumdifficultylylo | ||
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On November 07 2015 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Haha, I think we got it basically covered. Vivax is putting in the token effort, and I applaud him for that. I'm even around to chat with or listen to him, since you know, that's just what you DO, but I'm feeling pretty good about things. I'm actually really happy with how this game has turned out, since TL Mafia has had a lot of rage, inactivity, etc recently. Although there was definitely some of both here, there was a solid core of people working to figure out the game and we did it without the help of blue roles or any of that. Good player list helped there. I agree with this though, I'm confident that it's Vivax here. | ||
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N2 after the yamato lynch is really when people started to say the Onegu/GB/Hopeless team. I think it was pretty clear that town sentiment was decided on it, but in particular me, gumshoe, and BH were big supporters of the "lynch those three" camp that was quickly forming. + Show Spoiler + On October 27 2015 11:32 Chromatically wrote: Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong. I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like: ritoky gumshoe Xatalos BH (almost certainly town) rayn Vivax (very likely town) Hopeless Onegu GB (mafia) The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town. Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back. The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town. By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time. So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far). On October 27 2015 23:22 gumshoe wrote: I just dont think that a scum rayn in a good position would forfeit thread control and be a huge dick to people THAT HES NOT ACTUALLY MAD AT IF HES SCUM. Basically I dont think a) that rayn is that kind of a cock(and i dont mean that big, cause he can be massive just not that kind, as hes in hes not the sort of player who prefers to win as scum by pretending to be a jerk) and b) that the outburst was his best move at the time. But I could definitely be wrong / : I def wouldnt lynch rayn before gb onegu hopeless though. On October 28 2015 02:31 Blazinghand wrote: Ah, I'm gonna be pretty tied up for the next 24 hours or so with a really extravagant dinner, I'll sit down and lay out some reads before EoN though. I'm definitely in the running for getting shot so I'll make sure to get my ideas out. Other than what I've already been saying, "we should probably lynch GB, 1Gu, and H1" and "rayn is town, despite his amazing uselessness," I'll do some research and lay out some reasons and new reads. At the same time, Vivax says nothing in support of this plan and instead says: On October 28 2015 02:12 Vivax wrote: I went a bit over marv's filter and I say it's tinfoil time: Chrom ritoky rayn mafia gogogo So, I think this is very important: it's not necessarily true that mafia wouldn't bus in this position. It's very possible that mafia would see the thread sentiment forming and choose to just push that wagon and win off of cred in final three (meaning that me/gumshoe/BH is mafia). However, I don't believe that this is the case, and I'll talk about why a bit later (it has to do with Hopeless' vote). I think that I can indisputably show that, if gumshoe/BH were mafia, that they were fully bussing their whole team from this point on by strongly urging everyone to "stay the course" and lynch "the three". Vivax also posts this at the end of the night: On October 28 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote: OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think. On October 28 2015 07:08 Vivax wrote: ##Vote GB I would like say. see you in 48 h but I'll likely post anyway Which is at a very convenient time given that Onegu is just about to come under some serious pressure. (You can also note that Vivax had no reaction to the rayn nk, contrasting to the surprised reactions of BH and gumshoe). In the first page of D3: On October 28 2015 07:32 Blazinghand wrote: for now, though: ##vote: onegu On October 28 2015 07:56 gumshoe wrote: voting Onegu is perfectly fine. Earlier I was thinking kill Gb today, cause scum would shoot confirmed townies till lylo, and if our lynch menu was preset, it would be best to get the sketchy one out of the way first while there are still active townies around to disect it, but It's best if we dont waste our mislynch right now if scum insist on shooting weird ass targets, and between gb, hope and onegu gb is most likely to flip green so yeah. ##Vote Onegu On October 28 2015 08:08 Blazinghand wrote: Yeah so like there's two theories here. Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn. Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn. I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads. I think this provides more evidence that BH and gumshoe, if mafia, fully planned on bussing Onegu D3 (and then bussing Hopeless soon after). BH and gumshoe also post stuff like this throughout the day: On October 28 2015 15:12 gumshoe wrote: Basically theres no lynch I can propose that can clear your name like yams would, and theres no argument (that I havent already brought up) that would sway the people who want your head. I know it sucks to be the patzi but at this point your a liability to town ) : If you can sway them to lynch onegu or hopeless or convince them why your town, by all means do that, but at this point I cant do that for you and I'm not going to be arguing with chrom and ritoky for the next 3 days when it is still possible that you could be mafia and im just blind. On October 30 2015 04:22 Blazinghand wrote: Eh, i'm in the same boat. Either is fine, we need to lynch both of them anyways I have a hard time thinking that BH and gumshoe could even post that they basically don't care between a mafia and a town (as mafia should clearly have a strong preference between the town and the mafia, and pushing nothing is totally against the mafia agenda), but I GUESS you could argue that they're simply resigned to bussing their whole team at this point. Here's the problem with that, and why BH and gumshoe bussing all of their partners doesn't make sense: Hopeless comes in and votes GB over Onegu. IF the mafia plan was to just bus, why wouldn't Hopeless vote Onegu with his mafia partner and get some serious town cred (maybe even escape a lynch)? The votes at the time were 3-3 with Onegu and ritoky still probable votes onto GB. This means that not only is Hopeless' vote not needed to ensure a mislynch on GB, but also that in the event that Onegu gets lynched anyway, he would look much better on Onegu. If mafia are just bussing the whole day and pushing Onegu, there is absolutely no reason for Hopeless to vote GB here. The only possible reason is if mafia are trying to save Onegu, lynch GB, and derail the "GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train that was going strong-- this means Vivax. Now, I think this point might be the scummiest thing that gumshoe has done this game. I had a few doubts reading it at first: On October 30 2015 01:12 gumshoe wrote: ##Vote gb I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his. Posted when the votes are 3 Onegu - 2 GB with Onegu, Hopeless, ritoky still to vote. This makes it look like a secure GB mislynch if everyone votes as planned (6 - 3). I thought this was a strange justification considering gumshoe's generally stronger read on Onegu than GB, who he's gone back and forth on. He then switches back to Onegu: On October 30 2015 05:17 gumshoe wrote: ##unvote ##vote onegu we need to lynch onegu today, I think ritoky is town but if hes insistent on 1gu bieng town and xata bieng scum and pixies bieng real then we might very lose someone sensible tonight and have trouble killing onegu in the future. Thats not even considering gb flips town T_T in which case ritoky might somehow use that as fuel for his silly reads. Hopeless, if your here vote 1gu, he should be clear scum from your pov. Posted when the votes were 5 GB - 3 Onegu with Onegu off the wagons, so once the GB lynch was looking pretty secure. This has some obvious scum motivation. However, there are several reasons why I don't believe this is the case with gumshoe. First has to do with this Hopeless vote post. On October 30 2015 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: ##unvote ##Vote: GlowingBear Agree with this, and onegu doesnt seem as bad as GB after reading through their filters. GB is constantly throwing around "but what about this scummy thing thats just like me", seems like trying to deflect from himself. This post does offer an explanation for why (if gumshoe is mafia) that Hopeless wouldn't vote Onegu (maybe they thought they could save GB here). However, I really don't think that mafia would literally QUOTE their partner's post and blatantly sheep it onto the mislynch. + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 05:19 gumshoe wrote: you should care, if gb flips town for some dumb reason, then you me or xata die, well have 3 scum plus ritoky vs 3 town and onegu might not get lynched till lylo or something equally disturbing. On October 30 2015 05:33 gumshoe wrote: 1: Everything your saying is wifom, 1gu mighta killed rayn to sway townies his way, your are literally the living proof that this is a possibility 2: Whereas the nightkill is all wifom, 1gu's votes are facts. By wasting them on hopeless if hes town he is effectively sacrificing his ability to influence the vote. If the vote is between scum and town, and scum survive then the townie who burned his vote has effectively contributed to another townies mislynch. 3: This works as well vice versa for a scummer trying to save his teamates, but what if 1gu's teamates were never at risk? 4: 1gus day 2 behavior is only optimal if a scummer was not in danger and 1gu is scum, if 1gu is town, he does not actually know if his vote will make a diffrence or not, but if 1gu is scum, he DOES know that the best move is to steer clear of the lynch, so as to avoid fall out from it. Basically avoiding a vote is a pr move, you know who cares about pr? Scum / : the end lynch da goo. On October 30 2015 06:17 gumshoe wrote: I was wrong yesterday ) : so today's choice is yours, but TRY to make sense of what hopeless is doing is hes scum, it doesn't unless hes trying to protect 1gu / : maybe it doesnt matter and 1gu and gb are both scum, but based of hopeless's actions we should definitely be voting onegu. On October 30 2015 06:25 gumshoe wrote: from ritokys perspective, it would have to be xata vivax, cmon ritoky, why isnt hopeless voting onegu? If hopeless is the only scum between them, why not look more consistent and vote for the guy whose trying to kill you instead of doubling back on a guy you were null at best on, and town read at several points in the game? If hopeless is scum with gb, why vote him when he can just vote for onegu? the guy trying to kill him? In fact, why draw attention to himself with such a shitty vote for no reason?(might have resulted in his own lynch)? The only way hopeless DOESNT vote for onegu, and compromises himself in such a fashion is to protect his scum buddy, who has been bussing hopeless all this time to create some distance If hopeless is town, then hope is actually lost, and hes also insane for not voting onegu ) : cmon ritoky, yah got dis More importantly, these posts just do not make any sense if gumshoe is mafia. We're considering this in the world that gumshoe switches back to Onegu when the mislynch is mostly secure, hoping that nothing will change and his lynch goes off cleanly. But here, gumshoe is clearly pushing hard for the Onegu lynch. He literally encourages ritoky to switch as he considers it, which is the absolute LAST thing he wants as mafia here. Essentially, gumshoe's moves here don't make sense from a mafia trying to carefully ensure that his partner doesn't get lynched (especially considering his push for the GB/Onegu/Hopeless team earlier). But, they also don't make any sense from a mafia bussing their partner, because why move from Onegu in the first place? On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE Then there's this infamous quote. Obviously, this makes sense from a mafia trying to save their partner after ritoky unexpectedly hammered. It's very interesting to note that Vivax never gives a real read on Onegu (seriously go ctrl-F it). These are the closest things: On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: ... Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them. On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote: He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu. Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team". These certainly don't sound like townreads. Why would Vivax be so against the Onegu lynch when he's reading Onegu as scummy too? tl;dr BH and gumshoe's play only makes sense as mafia if they were planning on hard bussing their whole team, because of how much they were pushing the "lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train this day (and pushing Onegu in particular). In addition to the fact that a bus play like this is pretty unlikely in the first place, Hopeless would have been on Onegu for the town cred if he was being bussed anyway. Vivax instead propses an alternate team of all town, and then suddenly goes hard on GB (the only town out of the three) without ever subscribing to the "lynch all three and win" train that everyone was pushing. He never gives a real read on Onegu, and tries to get people to switch to GB when Onegu's lynch is certain. I think Vivax's play on D3 alone clearly fits much more with a mafia agenda than BH or gumshoe's. | ||
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I don't think I'll be posting comments on the rest of the game because I'm kind of out of time here, but I think things kind of went on autopilot from there on so not much to get from it. The nature of these posts is that I haven't really talked about myself at all, so again if anyone has any questions/doubts about my play, I can clear them up (although it doesn't look like people do). I think I've made a clear case for why BH and gumshoe are town. It not only has to do with the vote stuff from D3 and the association stuff I posted from other days, but also to do with their drive to figure out the game. Like, I think about that fact that gumshoe literally went into my GB case and attacked it piece by piece just to push his mislynch over my mislynch, and I really don't see how he can be mafia here. ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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Well played, BH, really. | ||
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Sorry GB, hopefully I didn't ruin this game for you or anything :/ Thank you to the hosting staff, and to all the players! I enjoyed this game a lot (other than some of the D1 drama), and the all vanilla setup was cool. | ||
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On November 08 2015 07:44 justanothertownie wrote: When you arrive in a LYLO where it is basically obvious from the start who is getting lynched you should be really really worried. The guy who was very wrong all game when his supposed teammates looked like shit the whole time is very rarely the mafia you are looking for. Hmm yeah... Vivax seemed like classic mafia to me trying to avoid lynching his partners, but like Vivax said in the game mafia would have used their perfect information to their advantage when their partners looked so bad. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
On November 08 2015 07:56 GlowingBear wrote: I didn't dislike your play, tho. I kept saying you were town. So there's that. Another thing, but that's overall, is that I'm never putting all my partners in a "want to lynch" list and keep dismissing mislynches on day1. If people had scumread Onegu and Hopeless, this basically is a flag saying I'm probably not mafia with them. I think that's all Yep, I thought about that but brushed it off because I already felt confident, that was silly. Looking at the mafia qt, I put way too much emphasis both on the shenannies and on Hopeless' D3 vote. I was thinking of those situations as either a bus or no bus when what really was going on was just BH pushing his scummy partners without really wanting them lynched. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Sorry if it's a dumb question, just trying to understand. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 10 2015 09:27 Blazinghand wrote: That's actually a great question. Basically what it comes down to is that it is pretty hard to tell why exactly someone was shot, but if someone IS shot, you want to review most of the cases they wrote and were pushing. Sometimes (As with Ritoky), people are shot because they're unlikely to be lynchable, or (as with Marv) are shot because even if they're not on the right track, scum respects their town play a lot and is afraid they might be on the right track. it's hard to distinguish this kind of shot from a shot on someone who is right on the money and has you as a top scumread, or from someone who is about to catch you but hasn't written a real cse yet (Rayn, this game). Generally what I do is read the person's last few scumreads and say "this guy might be wrong, but at the very least he's not lying". In rayn's case this may not have led to you scumreading me, since I shot him before he could really develop the case (i'm just skilled that way) but in general this is a good strategy. Don't take their scumreads to heart; just reread their argumetns thinking "this guy is confirmed town". This won't always catch you scum, but it means that the silencing doesn't work. And cause you're not just automatically copying them, but just re-evaluating their arguments, the scum wifom strat of shooting someone who's tunnelling a townie won't work either; you will read the case and judge it on its own merits, but know it comes from an honest source. Overall btw Chrom I thought you played well this game. I did not think you were a possible lynch target after like D2. Thanks BH! Yeah, I see what you're saying. I think I definitely should have taken another look at it after GB flipped town/we were in LYLO to see if I could get a better idea of why he was killed (knowing that it wasn't GB). Maybe it would have helped me to reevaluate? | ||
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