EPT[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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On October 20 2015 04:48 Xatalos wrote: (actually with the votecount tool it's easier without a seperate thread since you don't need to worry about posting phase cycle posts in another thread as well) Ah. I guess it's easier for hosts 100% of the time, 70% of the time then. | ||
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Blazinghand
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Do you even lift | ||
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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On October 21 2015 02:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: It's a bit shame i can't ask BlazingHand to claim in this game. :/ I don't see why I wouldn't claim this game. It's just, the thing I'm claiming is going to be VT, since everyone is VT :D | ||
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Blazinghand
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So here's what happens 1) you all will follow me since I'm the best player here 2) I will lynch the guy via RNG as determined by this post (the one you're reading right now)'s sitewide post count modulo 13. Since so many people are posting at once on TL it's impossible for us to know what's going down. Basically, in addition to a "what post in this thread" post ID, each post has a unique sitewide id # that's increasing so quickly because of TL traffic, I can use it to RNG effectively. I've done this before. It works. If you don't know what "modulo" means or how my rng lynch works after this explanation, you are not mathematically and educationally qualified to claim that this lynch is not RNG. Historically, people have objected to my RNG strategy by arguing that RNG is a bad idea, NOT that my RNG doesn't work. Everyone agrees: my RNG works and is transparently RNG. If you think this isn't a true unbiased RNG, i PROMISE you you're just wrong or don't understand what's happening here. Player list and rules are laid out in this post, which is written before I know what its sitewide post ID will be, which means this is a true RNG. Believe it. For RNG, this post will be used for generating a random lynch. The # in the upper left corner can be right-clicked and used to access the absolute TL post # for this post. That number mod 9 is the random lynch. 1 =Oats, 2 = rayn, etc, all the way up to 8 = holyflare and 0 = sloosh. The reason we use the absolute TL post number is that posts are constantly being made, so the number is truly random. We turn it into a number 1-14 by taking that number mod 14. What is mod? effectively, it's the remainder after division. For example. 13 mod 14 = 13. 14 mod 14 = 0. 18 mod 14 = 4. 19 mod 14 = 5. and so on. Basically, this generates a random number 1 through 14. I am in favor of the random lynch (though am somewhat interested in a policy lynch today as well-- TL does not do this enough. I will start off by voting for the random lynched based on THIS POST. In this case, 1 = marv 2 = Vivax etc etc all the way up to 12 = ritoky 0 = yamato77 (since a multiple of 13 modulo 13 is 0, not 13, we end with 0). Player List 1. marvellosity 2. Vivax 3. Blazinghand 4. gumshoe 5. GlowingBear 6. Hopeless1der 7. raynpelikoneet 8. Xatalos 9. Onegu 10. Chromatically 11. Alakaslam 12. ritoky 0. yamato77 there is no force on earth that can persuade me that RNG lynch is sub-optimal. bow before the RNG lynch. behold its glory and its horror and all of its majesty | ||
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Blazinghand
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24999098 mod 13 = 7 7th player is rayn ##vote raynpelikoneet rayn, your lynch has been determined by RNG. SUBMIT YOURSELF UNTO DEATH. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:24 Blazinghand wrote: The Post count for my RNG declaration post was 24999098 24999098 mod 13 = 7 7th player is rayn ##vote raynpelikoneet rayn, your lynch has been determined by RNG. SUBMIT YOURSELF UNTO DEATH. EBWOP | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:24 Blazinghand wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=24999098 The Post count for my RNG declaration post was 24999098 24999098 mod 13 = 7 7th player is rayn ##vote raynpelikoneet rayn, your lynch has been determined by RNG. SUBMIT YOURSELF UNTO DEATH. EBWOP again you get the idea | ||
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote: What's modulo again? Like in this case the 13th square root of that shitty number? Modulo is best thought of as "where do we roll over and become 0" For example, all numbers you think of normally are "modulo 10" We go "1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0" right? now with modulo instead we go "1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0" Another way of looking at it is "modulo = remainder in division" So for example, 16 modulo 13 would be 16 / 13, which is "1 remainder 3" and we grab that remainder it's a way of taking a randomly generated integer (like absolute post count) and splitting it into an evenly spaced probability of a bunch of other andom integers. So I get a random number between 0 and 12 by taking the random post count and modulo 13ing it | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:28 Xatalos wrote: I'd say that's more like pseudo-pseudo-random though. It's not really as sophisticated as something like the Random class in Java. I'll give you that it's somewhat good in the sense that you can "prove" it's not just some number you made up, even if it's not exactly fully random. In the end, I think we're utterly doomed if we can't make a better than RNG lynch with this list of players.... It could be somehow feasible if the players were mostly inactive to get things rolling (lol) I mean, it is "psuedo-random", but calling it that doesn't actually say anything negative about its use here. It's like noting that a dice roll isn't always perfectly random, or that it's really hard to generate randomness using computer. Sure, the Random class in Java isn't great, and maybe this is less random, but still this is SUPER random, so random you'd have to do it probably hundreds of thousands of time before there was a problem, or alternatively, due it a few hundred times per second or something. It's random enough taht it's already way more random than it needs to be, and unlike literally all other attempts at RNG, it's provably not influenced by me. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:30 Chromatically wrote: BH, you talk a lot about why your lynch is random but not at all about why we should follow it. I have to first establish that it *is* random (and this is harder than you might think given how much people know about math) before explaining why. Now here's why: I'm offering a 3/13 (23%) change to lynch scum, right here. that's a really good chance! We don't have blue claims to fall back on or mayoral elections or whatever, and we don't have coaches or power roles that activate during D1. This is all vanilla. Historicdally TL towns only barely beat RNG anyways, and although we are a strong group of players, unless the scumteam is like chrom ritoky marv (no offense marv, but you know as well as I do...) then the scumteam is ALSO strong. So we need to defeat their strength with our own resolution resolution to RNG 23% success rate | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:38 Xatalos wrote: Why does marv being in the scumteam make it weak? :D He has been super fatigued of rolling scum since he rolled scum for several games in a row. In the last game or two he rolled scum, he barely played and complained about wanting to be town. This game, if Marv is scum, he'll probably say/do nothing. If he's town expect him to be excited and energized about finally being able to be town and "recharge his batteries". Contrast Scum Marv that's on his game, who busts out hecka sweet moves. Marv's alignment should be obvious this game, even after he reads this post from me. On October 22 2015 06:38 Xatalos wrote: Anyways I was under the impression that TL towns have mostly beaten RNG in recent years. in general, maybe, but 1. Not by much 2. the reasons I laid out (skilled scum players, vanilla setup without extra townies, etc) all apply here 3. even in setups where town does have these advantages, RNG is still a good idea. Why don't we sit down and discuss rayn's play so far? Is anyone else suspicious of his lack of contribution? | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:44 ritoky wrote: bh sleeping on me winning 6 of my 7 games as mafia on these forums made me die a little inside. Okay if you're good at scum then that's even MORE argument for RNG! almost everyone here is good at scum! We'll never catch them D1 without lynching raynpelikoneet thanks for your support voting raynpelikoneet look, he's lurking even now, let's vote him | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:51 Xatalos wrote: Hahaha... Really rock solid reasoning :D It'd be funny if he came online and saw a big wagon on himself immediately. Just for that, I might even vote for him. Honestly I kinda want to get the wagon rolling just for that (he would be SO mad hueheue), but it's probably more reasonably to let rayn make a token defense before we lynch him | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 06:55 Vivax wrote: I'm always open to getting people to have WTF moments. ##Unvote ##Vote rayn yesss, yessssssssss give in to the darkness, and don't forget the voting thread | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 07:15 gumshoe wrote: Bh, question, if your town please be honest : D were you planning this from the get go? Did you have your post pre written? When did you conceive the idea to use the random tl tag info? Would you have done this if you were mafia? if this was all pre thought up (which it seems to me it was) than it might not be any better than a glorified "hi, im town." not that this at all detracts from your argument for rng(which has it's convincing points but I still feel is a last resort) it's the possibility of you using this opening banter as an aegis that worries mah / : "From the get go" --> I wasn't particularly thinking of using RNG, but it's one of my most useful tools for hunting and lynching scum. I'd say I use it more often than not nowadays when I play. When the game started, I was like "you know what would be great here? Given the setup and the player list, this is perfect for RNG" and then I did it. "pre written" --> I copied/pasted it from the last time I used RNG, then filled in the names and list size from this game. The second RNG post where I announced the result, I also copied/pasted, so in a sense, yes, this was prewritten "when did you think of random tl tag info?" --> I first thought of this idea in September of 2013, and I used it for the first time in November 2013. Since then I've used it probably 5-10 times in games here on TL. "would you have done this if you were mafia?" --> the answer to this question is always "yes". I'm willing to lie, cheat, steal, doctor photographs, put items in boxes, fake plane tickets, pretend to have depression, a death in the family, etc, whatever it takes to win regardless of alignment. I'm one of the few players that does not pull punches as mafia. So yes, as mafia, I'd be fully willing to RNG if I percieved it to be a good idea (which it isn't; I've outlined why RNG is pro-town this game) | ||
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 07:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: wait  | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 22 2015 07:29 Xatalos wrote: You need to go deeper. Shouldn't you pursue RNG as scum so that people think you're so pro-town?  Absolutely. Now that I know that people think it's a towntell for me I will 100% do this next time I'm scum. I will always abuse town's trust as scum, and why not? Anythning that people say "BH never does this as scum, only as town", I will do it as scum, because it WORKS. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 00:13 marvellosity wrote: on the other hand, i could tell you mafia are more likely to make hay and actually explain those things (which are quite easy to do) so that they have a nice looking post. I'd say mafia are more prone to overexplanation, no? :> As a general rule... yes? I think it's more about how the explanation happens than whether it's too long (ovexplanation) or too short. In general, people make posts and then add explanations to them based on what makes sense to them logically. Because mafia are faking reads, when they try to add explantions, it has to be based on their guess of how someone would arrive at their conculsion logicailly. They're making it up artifically, and often this presents as overexplanation | ||
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 02:38 marvellosity wrote: shame rayn is probably town then, huh pfah, details! you're not looking at the big picture, marv I should probably read his filter at some point though. I am serious though about giving yamato some more time | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 02:41 marvellosity wrote: the only picture i look at is the one where I'm ploughing mafia forcefully from behind pretty hard to shake my townfeels on rayn when he comes into the thread saying he has 2 townreads and no mafiareads when at that point i had 2 townreads and no mafiareads and the 2 townreads were the same as mine. hmm, pretty thoughtful. I guess I'll need to post a super convincing scumread and case on rayn in order to convince you. is it possible that RNG has actually failed me and selected a town player for the first time ever? | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 04:38 gumshoe wrote: People I'm willing to lynch today. Xata- as said before, looks like hes posting alot but isnt actually saying much of substance, worse yet he talked alot about stuff that didnt really matter at all (simulating a true rng lynch, trolling rayn, how he waffles days one me) but yeah he hasnt come back yet so probs need to hear more. Hopeless- definition of worthless, but I'm not sure if mafia would actually be comfortable joining an active thread to contribute naught but dank memes. onegu- "So I am debating on if I want to try this game or just troll..." as a player who has been absolutely shit and lazy as both mafia and town I'm well aware of the terrible impact such a player can have on a game. If they are not lynched quickly they become a huge distraction that cant particularly be read into cause they're shit and lazy. Mafia players can and have used the whole "hes so bad, there's no way hes mafia" meta plenty so if Onegu insists on being scummy then we should oblige him provided there isn't a better alternative. People I'm mixed on Bh: His original Rng post set me off a bit, but without writing another wot I'll just say that I liked the answers he gave to the questions I asked. If necessary I'll elaborate but for now lets just say his response felt very honest and off the cuff. His defense of Yam could be scummy, if Yam is town Bh might just be setting up for his flip in a very non committal way(asking for time as opposed to outright defending him), but trying to clear space for a townie so that they can talk freely doesnt strike me as bads, unless he thinks yamato plays worse when hes not under pressure / : they could be scumm bros but that would be a bit obvious no? Chrom: Liked his posts on Ritoky though I still think hes totally wrong. town players have often found that kind of thing (tells early game) scummy, it's happened to me several times before. Reads early game are rarely things of beauty for our hats are often quite puny. An aggressive read like that can also backfire huge, concrete accusations are a great way for mafia to get unnecessary spotlight thrown onto them. So yeah, methinks chroms wrong but not scum. Though he may just be throwing together a convincing tunnel on a fairly inactive player. The thing where Chrom went back and drew a connection with the picture feels very townie to me though, reminds me of my own happy tunnels, but I doubt the picture actually means much (would be a tad obvious if it did) Glowing bear- not sure about him, Vivax seems like a weird target for mafia to push but they might not have a really good selection of schlubs to frame. Fun note, Bh, chrom and GB all clearing room for Yamato when he hasn't done much at all? Coincidence? Mabs, mabs not. Not much else to report, Marv probs town? Someone said(bh I thunk) he'd be pretty shit if hes maf and he doesn't seems shitty so hurrah I suppose. So no thoughts on rayn then? Cause he grilled you a fair amount, and despite that, all you said about him was: On October 22 2015 08:17 gumshoe wrote: Rayns a big meanie, nothings changed. On October 22 2015 08:59 gumshoe wrote: your a meanie and everyone else except chrome is not particularly notable. In response to all the grilling, etc. So what's the deal gumshoe? Rayn attacks you and you mostly just call him mean, you don't comment on anything he has to say, any of his reads (other than directly related to your statements) and on your list post, he doesn't show up, not even as mixed. You commented on the nature of the rng lynch on rayn (saying it was daring, etc) but you didn't actually comment about rayn himself. Are you avoiding talking about rayn? Let's hear a stance from you on this. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 04:48 gumshoe wrote: I commented just now on Rayn, but if you want a follow up, Rayn is consistently aggressive towards me as town or scum, but he backed off which is usually what town rayn does when I say the magic words hes looking for. The one time he was scum he just kept going after me till I dead / : but I dont claim to be able to read him very well. Hes aggressive as town, and ever so slightly more aggressive as scum. Time should tell what he actually is / : so for now I'm dumping him the yamato camp of -give it a day out in the sun. Btw I cant tell if your actually for reals about Rayn or just pushing the RNG XD guess its both? Thanks for the input! So for you, you'd expect that scum rayn would tunnel you into the ground, whereas town rayn wouldn't do this, but this meta read is a soft read? At this point in time I feel like it's more important to gather information about rayn and learn about what people think of him and why people are irrationally townreading him when he was clearly RNGed than it is to disambiguate the motivations for my scumread on him  | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 04:58 gumshoe wrote: oks : P how do you feel about xatalos and chrom? I would ask you about onegu and hopeless but theres not much there to pick apart -_-. Chromatically opens up just with questions. "Why do you think X", "What do you think of Y", etc. After making these, he comes out against ritoky with this argument: On October 22 2015 07:04 Chromatically wrote: I don't like ritoky so far. The stuff ritoky is saying to me is more of a "textbook" mafia tell that ends up not being very relevant in an actual game, coupled with the fact that he used it to jump on an easy target early on. From a mafia perspective, it would be easy to jump into the thread and give a "read" on someone like gumshoe based on a tell. He laters adds Hopeless1der for awkwardness and when he calls out ritoky http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25000070 he does it with some pretty reasonable-sounding arguments, but these arguments are actually flawed. He says scum won't sheep and will actually try to stick out, which in general is NOT how scum act. Yes, scum don't want to appear OBVIOUSLY Sheeping, but scum will generally try to appear "middle of the herd" rather than following the herd. Chromatically being wrong about this though doesn't make him scum, it just makes him wrong. His seeming misunderstadning of ritoky's (admittedly poorly laid out / formatted) argument about my usage of RNG is actually more suspicous. IF he actually clicked the links, he'd see me RNGing in each of those games. In fact, for trying to figure out when I RNG, ritoky is almost certainly town. If he's scum, he could just be like "BH using rng is stupid, we should lynch him for being stupid", or, if rayn was somehow town, he could say "RNG is great let's lynch rayn" This isn't what riotky did. He saw me using RNG, then said to himself, "hmm, I'm going to do research. How does Blazinghand's decision to do RNG tell me about his alignment? Let's see when he's used this in the past"-- to react to this by trying to use it as a tool to determine my alignment, this almost certainly makes ritoky town. Chromatically doesn't see this, which means he's not trying to get in ritoky's head, or maybe isn't capable of doing so? In any case, Chromatically mostly comes off as good-natured but wrong rather than baltantly scummy. If he's scum, he won't come out and spew incorrect theories about how to make scumreads, not when it would draw attention to him. Chromatically is not on my lynch list today | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: How i have to decide if you just said that terrible thing as town or mafia... I am a bit puzzled how could you actually believe Blazinghand would not do that as mafia. rayn knows as well as anyone that I hold nothing back as mafia. yes, RNG is literally pro-town, and so it's worse for me to use it as mafia, since it would hurt my team, but... I know people think this. I know this to be true. So as scum, I could use it and be like "hey guys, I'm using a pro-town strat, I must be town". RNG in and of itself is not hard evidence I'm town. Instead, pay attention to what I do with it. On October 23 2015 05:08 Xatalos wrote: I kind of liked Chromatically's posts after he came back. Mostly the fact that he seemed to be... thinking of reasons for people to be scummy/not, then landing on reads, rather than naming reads and then backing them up... Somehow the flow of his posts felt decent in the recent pages. I just wonder a bit what happened after the "reading on Xatalos's meta" bit? Did I miss something? eh, his reasoning on yamato seems very week and echoey. I liked it better when he was being wrong about ritoky. He was bringing his A-game, such as it is, for that. On October 23 2015 05:11 Onegu wrote: My RNG sheep is... GlowingBear. GlowingBear my vote is yours!!! this is not how you do RNg, this isn't even close to how you do RNG. You are a disgrace to RNG, you have forgotten the face of your father. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:18 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, I like that ritoky part. It's certainly a townie reaction to dig your game history for RNG-related things to think about your alignment. Yeah there's no way I'm lynching ritoky unless he goes way downhill. Like, wow, someone actually went and found links and stuff. His presentation gets a D- since he could have like said "Blazinghand has played in the following games and RNGed this many times and these were his alignments" but his research gets an A, and it shows an underlying thought process that almost certainly comes from town. | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:21 Onegu wrote: Oh rayn that doesnt work with me. Im not refuseing to play the game. Just refusing to play how you think it should be played. I will still catch the scummers, but my way with my gut and then just tell you who to vote. And when I do tell you who to vote you should vote them as my gut is so much more right then when I acutally think about things. Couid you possibly rephrase this? I'm having trouble getting what you're getting at here. You're just following GB... which you claim to have RNGed. please advise | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:22 Onegu wrote: But didnt his links just go to your filter in games and not actually point things out lol. The exact posts in question: On October 22 2015 07:03 ritoky wrote: as someone who impersonated BH recently, BH is town until he does something egregious enough to be considered not town. evidence: as mafia - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/481138-aperture-mafia-4-this-time-its-personal?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/463542-cell-mini-mafia-iii?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/449782-yuma-mini-mafia?user=Blazinghand as town - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/477800-vii-titanic-mini-mafia-i-have-a-cunning-plan?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/468053-fantasy-football-ffl-mini?user=Blazinghand http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/461330-noir-mini-mafia-chapter-2?user=Blazinghand we done here? On October 22 2015 07:08 ritoky wrote: generally speaking he doesn't rng as mafia, but i wouldn't put it past him to break meta. So here's what's going on. ritoky links my town games, and if you actually click through, it's noteworthy that as town I often immediately RNG at game start. Then he links my recent scum games, and there are no RNGs. He notes "I wouldn't put it past him to break meta" which is also a relevant piece of information. Maybe this makes sense to me becasue it's about me, but this immediately struck me as thoughtful and the kind of thing someone would say when they're trying to figure me out. Nobody else bothered to research me, but ritoky, he wan'ted to know, you see? He wanted to KNOW. he was trying to figure me otu. That's what town does | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't understand the reads on ritoky. He literally said: "BH is town until he does something egregious enough to be considered not town." "generally speaking he doesn't rng as mafia, but i wouldn't put it past him to break meta." So what? He townreads Blazinghand for something he then says, in the next post, is not a reason to townread Blazinghand`!!? He makes a perfectly reasonable set of statements. "Blazinghand has a meta of using RNG as town" "...however, this doesn't mean we should automatically assume BH is town. BH is a tricky fucker, and is notoriously a tricky fucker. He has done all kinds of things as scum that nobody thought scum would do, like pretend to get dumped, be depressed, death in teh family, and so on. He will do anything as scum to win, he's so sexy and good at this game. BH, you are so cool. This is known by all people" These are both reasonabl eand true statements | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is absolutely nothing alignment indicative in your rng Blazinghand, you know it, everyone should know it. "Figuring out" something regarding it is a waste of time. On October 23 2015 05:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: yes and STILL he assumes you are town as per his posts. see? It doesn't make any sense. Ok but part of what's going on here also is not everyone has seen firsthand what I'm capable of. Most people hear a story or two and think "oh, that BH guy must be pretty decent. He'll do anything to win. I guess I better count this well-known-to-BH meta evidence less strongly". Not everyone is like you, not everyone has seen the true darkness and depravity I am willing to perpetrate to win as scum. I've literally made peopel feel IRL feelings for me, feel bad, feel hurt, feel worried, want to reach out to me out-of-game, just to not get lynched for one day as scum. I've sunk to depths that are BEYOND most people's comprehensions. You know me, rayn. You know not to trust RNG as a town-tell. PEople hear that, though, and they think "okay, don't trust it AS MUCH as I normally would", because they don't KNOW. They ahven't gazed into the abyss. They are still sane. They can still be saved. You, though... you've seen what I'm capable of, and perhaps have forgotten what it is like to be normal, to not know me as you do | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:29 Onegu wrote: Does rayn normally act this way when BH rng's his vote or is this just because the RnG landed on him... He's usually not as aggressive, but historically he makes posts like: On February 14 2015 17:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: Blazinghand, let's be honest: Are you forging that read on vayne? The one besides rng? On February 15 2015 00:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: Are people really this dumb? geez i guess BH was right. RAYN: BH ARE YOU FORGING THE READ ON VAYNE BESIDES RNG? BH: OF COURSE I AM RAYN! ...... On February 17 2015 10:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: As a veteran how do you twist a RNG lynch into anything else than an RNG? In this game, rayn Vayne and I were all townies, of course | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: I fail to see how i am being "aggressive" here, so could you explain BH? well, not towards me. You're actually being a little more gentle with me, compared to normal. Normally I'd expect you to end up TRing ritoky for that on your own. Maybe it's been some time since we played together, or my edge is getting dull, but I recall you being pretty good at noticing people's motivations. | ||
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Blazinghand
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brb dinner | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 05:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: ritoky is a really had to read for me and i don't think he has said much of anything that could be in my opinion considered townie. Maybe it's jsut like you say and other people do not know you as well as i do (and what you can / cannot do as mafia), but still... it's really hard for me to believe both of Xatalos and ritoky actually believe you are town for your actions regarding the rng lynch. I just don't fucking buy it. When I get back I'll go through game history and see if they've played with me before during one of my many betrayals. That will decide this issue one way or another. | ||
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Blazinghand
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Blazinghand
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righteous | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 07:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: yamato i am pretty sure GlowingBear is town here. Basically he says really scummy shit that makes absolutely no sense as mafia, because he doesn't really know what to do at all (i assume). Here he has some sort of a thought process going on in his head. Basically it's highly unlike he is scum here. Same goes for Hopeless, he tried to do stuff. He is just doing it in his own way that looks scummy to basically everyone.. always. I am really really sure ritoky is mafia. I am also quite sure Slam is scum because of process of elimination. Xatalos is probably just really fucking dumb atm, but at least his explanation to BH thing makes some sense, unlike ritoky's. ritoky basically argues that Blazinghand is town based on illogical arguments, or arguments that are easily proven wrong. Like even if he believes those arguments are true the read is shit and arguing the read is good for those things is something that a townie never does. Last scum is probably Blazinghand or Onegu. I kinda think it's Onegu atm, since Blazinghand seems to be trying to do something and getting something out of his shennies at the start of the game. I don't believe gumshoe is scum, basically his reacation towards me doesn't make any sense as mafia. He is right in that i suually pressure him every game we are in and i know he acts differently when he is scum than when he is town. I just don't see him being scum here. Vivax is basically his own paranoid town self with a portion of good logical thoughts. marv is almost definitely town. you are almost definitely town. Chromatically seems to be the most level headed person in this game. It's like not totally out of question he is scum here but most likely he is just town as his posting suggests. OK Rayn I kinda get what you're getting at here but let's look at the shared game history between me and xat 1. II Titanic Mini Mafia -- I replaced in for cdgcorazon (wow, I remember that dude) and was the town vigi. Also that was a shitshow 2. TL Mafia LXIV -- Another shitshow, in which I was town 3. TL MAfia LXIV Part 2 -- I was town again 4. Golden Sun Lost Age -- I was Isaac, Town, again 5. Assassination Mafia -- I was town 6. Paranoia Mafia -- I was town In other words, Xatalos has literally never played with scum Blazinghand. He has no firsthand experience of playing with me. He couldn't know, not wihtout doing research or blindly trusting others. He is unaware of the depths of depravity to which I am willing to sink. He has not seen it first hand. Ritoky has played with me twice. Once in Golden Sun Mafia, and once in Cell Mini Mafia, the infamous game in which I took photos of cardboard boxes and pretended to be moving house and not have internet. Ritoky is aware of the depths of depravity to which I am willing to sink. He has seen it first hand. That being said, I still like Ritoky doing resaerch on my meta and when I use RNG. Yes, he's wrong, and yes, he should remember what I'm willing to do, but he sitll went and did actual research when has scum it would have been totally unnecessary, right? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 16:21 GlowingBear wrote: I've actually read this thread more closely than any recent games I've played. You should be able to tell by the time stamps. I've spent almost 3 hours reading and thinking about it. I think my reasons are fair enough to vote Vivax. He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static. I think this makes Vivax mafia. If you don't, fair enough. But I don't understand how you can possibly believe I, as mafia, would call both you and marv town while disagreeing with your top town reads. I defended myself by using logic. Thinking someone is scum and asking questions doesn't make my read premeditated. I will always further investigate what I find suspicious. Given the sheer quantity and magnitude of lurkers at this point in time, why would you be invested in Vivax in particular? I feel like, at least at the time of this post, there are at least 3 people who fit this description. Why not, for example, be on Yamato77 or Onegu or someone else who has had lackluster performance? You'll need to elaborate on this-- what doesn't he do as town in particular? Certainly there may be reason to vote rayn (since he is obvscum due to RNG) but a post like this doesn't tell me anything about you or why I would want to vote RAyn. What's up here, Alakaslam? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 16:36 Alakaslam wrote: Xata openly did as I am doing. Rayn is scum. So Slam, if I catch your dirft correctly here, your scumread on rayn goes like this: rayn has been changing his mind a lot, and you expect him to be more tunnelly as town. (This is effectively what Xat said; the xat posts that chrom has posted are mostly not painting xat in a positive light, or presenting the rayn case; so it's hard to see what you're getting at there). Is that all there is to you rayn case, or is there more to it? On October 23 2015 16:39 Alakaslam wrote: And the moment I catch up with myself is this buttshite Very Svengali fail You don't like rayn's vote on GB. Why? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 19:02 Vivax wrote: 1. Wow look at you with the pants on your head, scum would never wear pants on their head. 2. The point is that you can just stick to your guns in that case instead of complaining about me not explaining my reads which is something that doesn't catch scum most of the time. There are dozens of read lists in this game and not every read is explained properly, it's a bottomless barrel. For example there's you saying marv has changed his playstyle and you're not sure about it and then he's suddenly green in the list post of yours, if I ask you why you'd say "I changed my read cause bsbs", great. If I call you scum for it you will just give a reasonable explanation. Or the irony in saying my reads are too static but being suspicious about me giving out too many of them, and basically being the first to do so. You accuse first and ask questions later, that's what I demonstrated with the post of mine and I have a hard time seeing you as the kind of guy who usually tunnels me for reasons I don't understand (like Koshi/Artanis/marv in earlier days). So Vivax, if I understand what you're getting at here, you were tonereaded by Vivax as scum. After people came in to defend you, Vivax then said "GB is pushing easy targets, so he's still scum". Why is GB scum and not a tunnelled townie for this? I think you raise a good point with the marv flip-flop (though again, marv is easy to read this game, so we don't really care about him) but "this guy got tunnelled and changed his reason for scumreading someone" seems like... well, in a vacuum it seems like the kind of thing a townie would do, especially if it's a little unpopular. Scum could easily change reads (as you note GB did on Marv), so why not do that on you? If I've missed context here, fill me in. Also, if I recall accurately you were one of the early supports of the RNG lynch on rayn. However, glancing through your filter, I don't see anything other than cursory interactions with him between voting him and now, and yet he's no longer on your list. You also write: On October 24 2015 01:55 Vivax wrote: If it comforts you I feel ambiguous about rayn too when he goes after you and not GB but I also take into consideration that we all got massive egos. Which wasn't too long ago. Where do you stand on rayn, and why? I'm not saying "hurr durr vote rayn now" but I'd like to see a clear statement from you on your position on raynpelikoneet, who | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 19:22 Vivax wrote: Somebody give me a good reason why GB is town cause I don't want to feel like I'm just chasing stupid and not malicious cases. Marv if your theory about Slam is correct it also means that everybody who actually started making cases on rayn before slam hooked himself into that bait was town. Cause that's usually when scum bites: When townies are wrongly suspicious about a town dude. clearly I'm town then hue On October 23 2015 19:23 marvellosity wrote: there were people attacking rayn before? who was it? I did due to RNG. I think a few people piled on as well. You can take a look in like the 20s and 30s On October 23 2015 19:28 marvellosity wrote: the funny thing is, one thing that makes me unsure about GB being mafia - both rayn and I stated pretty early that Vivax was town and I think it was kinda obvious we were serious about it. So I guess GB-mafia in that instance somehow decides to go against both me and rayn and push a very weak meta case? it's practically suicidal. maybe he's just town and believes it... dno right now I consider this moderate evidence that GB is town. It would be the easiest thing in the world for GB to drop this, right? So him sticking to it means he must really BELIEVE it (however incorrectly?) more than he cares about living. This isn't a dumbtell, it's a determinedtell. For example, the biggest shitfests between 2 people are always "town and town" cause nobody is more determined and stubborn than a tunnelled townie. On October 23 2015 19:29 Vivax wrote: My most vivid memory of scumslam was a game on omgus actually. He just did his slam thing with the derpy posts but usually piling up on mislynches that were already going on with a few attacks on the bandwagoned townie to cement that. I'm not really good at reading him except from the way he behaves with his choice of target. On October 23 2015 19:31 marvellosity wrote: there was a game that just got played where everyone seemed quite surprised Slam was mafia? rayn's abandoned game I think? Unfortunately I didn't really read the game to find out why everyone was surprised about it I can corroborate that I have no ability to read Slam. I think I've tried a couple times and been wrong. From what I can tell, he does try to figure out thae game as town but is completely unwilling/able to share his information with others in a way that lets us form a read on him. He definitely says things, in addition to his random crap, that has a good chance of being correct. It's hard to draw a read on this, though. He's not dumb, he just doesn't have tells that most people can work off of. Maybe a vigi will just shoot him or a cop will check him oh wait oh oh no oh | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 21:46 Xatalos wrote: Really marv? I think Slam has said a lot more interesting stuff already than he ever did last game (as scum). There he just basically hanged around, trolling, but I thought he was town because he was so "natural" in the thread. This game... Mostly I was enlightened by him liking ritoky for his "town BH makes reads based on his RNG push DING DING" post (which really makes me feel better about ritoky too, since I forgot that post and wondered a bit about his confidence in BH being town... Now I understand). Also I liked how he brought up the weird progression from rayn regarding GB... Which basically went like certain town -> die scum, based on.. What? Missing posts from GB earlier? Then why that hard defense of him in the first place, without even reading his posts? And now the confident scumread because that's where the thread was flowing? What I'm trying to say is, reading Slam's posts made me feel better about Slam and ritoky, and worse about rayn. Not really sure how you came to your conclusions marv...? On the other hand, GB has felt a bit better lately. The Vivax read is a bit... But like marv said, it feels like a really weird target to pick as scum. And I liked his meta thing about me. And he's unlikely scum with rayn (no reason for scum rayn to suddenly go on the offensive this late in the day otherwise after hard defending him before). So I See you going to the mat for slam here. How does Slam convince you rayn is scum? I'm glad to see someone on board with the "GB being stubborn could be a town-tell" boat, but how does this have to do with an associative tell with rayn? Rayn is totally willing to attack teammates when appropriate as scum, and in a game with no investigative roles I'd be a lot more confident about rayn lasting through lylo as scum than I would GB. Can you explain in a bit more detail why rayn as scum wouldn't change his mind on GB as scum, if GB's push starts to falter? On October 23 2015 21:59 Xatalos wrote: Ah, and Chromatically... Not sure yet. He's kept being pretty reasonable / constructive all game, but I don't really think there's been much (if anything?) I've agreed with him on... And that case against me is just, pretty much describing my town meta features as scummy points. The stuff he's saying about me is null at worst. And then I'm confidently scum? I've received a couple of cases like that (from scum) before. Most notably the case that called me a "drama queen" or something (LOL). That was a funny case. Anyways, it feels kind of like those cases, nitpicking null/towny things and painting them in the worst possible light. It doesn't even feel like an actual case, more like an effort to try and find *somethjng* (anything) bad about me... And failing, but calling me scum regardless. This post is bad and you should feel bad. On October 23 2015 22:34 Xatalos wrote: Let's see... My current thoughts are... (not in any particular order) Town Vivax Blazinghand ritoky Alakaslam Nullish GlowingBear gumshoe Hopeless1der Onegu yamato77 marvellosity Scummy Chromatically raynpelikoneet That's where I'm at... I think there's at least 1-2 scum between rayn/Chrom and then 1-2 in the null section. Why do you have marv as scum? As I noted earlier, Marv is like supremely demotivated as scum now (to the point of almost throwing games, never trying, conceding with 3 or 2 scum alive, etc). It's super obvious to me that marv is town, since he's actually trying to play the game rather than be a little whiny baby about it. Just look at his game history. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 22:55 marvellosity wrote: when you lynch rayn literally every time he is mafia and don't ever lynch him when he is town, then you can tell me what and when i should be reading rayn understood? historically, is this actually true when you're town? On October 23 2015 23:01 Xatalos wrote: I can't say I'm an expert on rayn, but I'll just say that I feel his current game is closer to his scumgame on VS than anything else. I seem to have missed it in your back-and-forths with marv or maybe I read it and forgot it, but a link or a quote or something when you make statements liket his is important if you want to actually convice people. Of course, I am pro rayn lynch since he is scum, because he got RNGed, so as your ally in this let me advise you: posts like this won't convince peopel. Please link me pls [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:08 marvellosity wrote: my reasoning was that you're a bit of a pussy as mafia and it would be much easier for you just to townread me when if you are mafia you know there is a 0% chance of me ever getting lynched. the fact you pushed me before under similar circumstances weakens that as a heuristic though although i doubt you'd make the same mistake twice[/QUOTE BTW this is the reason that GB isn't necessarily scum for tunnelling Vivax. Obviously "stuborrnness as a towntell" is an easily fatigued heuristic, but you don't want to chuck it out just for that reason. [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:10 Chromatically wrote: So I assume no one agrees with me on Xatalos then? [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 21:59 Xatalos wrote: Ah, and Chromatically... Not sure yet. He's kept being pretty reasonable / constructive all game, but I don't really think there's been much (if anything?) I've agreed with him on... And that case against me is just, pretty much describing my town meta features as scummy points. The stuff he's saying about me is null at worst. And then I'm confidently scum? I've received a couple of cases like that (from scum) before. Most notably the case that called me a "drama queen" or something (LOL). That was a funny case. Anyways, it feels kind of like those cases, nitpicking null/towny things and painting them in the worst possible light. It doesn't even feel like an actual case, more like an effort to try and find *somethjng* (anything) bad about me... And failing, but calling me scum regardless.[/QUOTE] Here are the basic points I made: Xatalos was active without posting anything particularly in the beginning of the game (mafia do this because they want to appear active but have trouble posting content), waffling on votes (mafia do this because they want to keep their options open and not ignore their partners), throwing suspicion on rayn initially (mafia do this to make people look worse than they are), weird read on BH (mafia throw out townreads without thinking about why). The last two points are meh, but the first two I think are pretty clearly scum traits and certainly not "null at worst" from any perspective. The filter length defense is the only good one I've heard, but filter length is not everything. If people really don't want to lynch Xatalos, I'll obviously consolidate onto someone else. But I do think I made a strong case and I feel good about it. [/QUOTE] Uh, isn't that consistent with Xat buying into RNG, townreading me, and pushing the RNG target? The actions you've described are like, the actions of someone who has joined the glory of RNG so unless you're saying "buying into RNG is scummy" I dont' think you've got a case here buddy [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:24 marvellosity wrote: [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:20 Xatalos wrote: [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:08 marvellosity wrote: my reasoning was that you're a bit of a pussy as mafia and it would be much easier for you just to townread me when if you are mafia you know there is a 0% chance of me ever getting lynched. the fact you pushed me before under similar circumstances weakens that as a heuristic though although i doubt you'd make the same mistake twice[/QUOTE] Btw can you really say I'm a pussy as scum after that game where I and Artanis bussed each other all game? That was fun.[/QUOTE]yes, bussing each other is pussy way out because it means you don't have the balls to tunnel a townie gonna have to try meta Chrome at some point. My evening cleared up (i was gonna be afk all weekend and spring that on you guys when i finished work, but my plans fell through) [QUOTE]On October 22 2015 13:59 Chromatically wrote: Alright yamato is off the lynch list for me. I have a hard time seeing him faking anger about getting scumread by people for this and I don't think he's just making up his reasoning there as mafia. Both of those last posts feel really town to me.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 00:26 Chromatically wrote: I don't really see why GB is mafia for that read rather than it just being a bad read. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote: [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 02:41 marvellosity wrote: pretty hard to shake my townfeels on rayn when he comes into the thread saying he has 2 townreads and no mafiareads when at that point i had 2 townreads and no mafiareads and the 2 townreads were the same as mine.[/QUOTE] I like this post a lot, I get a strong town feeling from this. [/QUOTE] I don't like any of these posts much. I don't think the anger thing is a good reason to townread yamato. I made an unexplained punt vote on GB and it reads as a bit of a weird defence. I'm also not sure that Chrome should be getting strong townfeels from the post i made rather than others/the whole body of play. Also have this nagging feeling where Chrome described ritoky as picking up on "textbook mafia tells" and he's essentially doing the exact same thing with Xatalos. I don't like it. I understand picking up on Xata's read progression on rayn, I think it's possibly reasonable to be suspicious of that, but the rest of it I don't think I like much.[/QUOTE] I definitely think Chrom isn't being well-organized on his Xat push. He's on my "people i might consider lynching who are not named raynpelikoneet today" which is fairly impressive since currently that list is very short and includes raynpelikoneet, even though it explicitly excludes him, because of the glory of rng seriously though I can't track that thought process. Still pushing forwards, one way or another I'll have this sorted out by the time I'm caught up with thread. what an adventure! [QUOTE]On October 23 2015 23:28 marvellosity wrote: we're not gonna lynch rayn i'm not totally confident he's town but i have enough reason to take him off the table today[/QUOTE] your call on this since you are obvtown and the best non-me player here, but if he is scum and got rnged, think about how mad he'd be to get lynched cause of that kekeke | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 22:55 marvellosity wrote: when you lynch rayn literally every time he is mafia and don't ever lynch him when he is town, then you can tell me what and when i should be reading rayn understood? historically, is this actually true when you're town? On October 23 2015 23:01 Xatalos wrote: I can't say I'm an expert on rayn, but I'll just say that I feel his current game is closer to his scumgame on VS than anything else. I seem to have missed it in your back-and-forths with marv or maybe I read it and forgot it, but a link or a quote or something when you make statements liket his is important if you want to actually convice people. Of course, I am pro rayn lynch since he is scum, because he got RNGed, so as your ally in this let me advise you: posts like this won't convince peopel. Please link me pls On October 23 2015 23:08 marvellosity wrote: my reasoning was that you're a bit of a pussy as mafia and it would be much easier for you just to townread me when if you are mafia you know there is a 0% chance of me ever getting lynched. the fact you pushed me before under similar circumstances weakens that as a heuristic though although i doubt you'd make the same mistake twice BTW this is the reason that GB isn't necessarily scum for tunnelling Vivax. Obviously "stuborrnness as a towntell" is an easily fatigued heuristic, but you don't want to chuck it out just for that reason. On October 23 2015 23:10 Chromatically wrote: So I assume no one agrees with me on Xatalos then? Here are the basic points I made: Xatalos was active without posting anything particularly in the beginning of the game (mafia do this because they want to appear active but have trouble posting content), waffling on votes (mafia do this because they want to keep their options open and not ignore their partners), throwing suspicion on rayn initially (mafia do this to make people look worse than they are), weird read on BH (mafia throw out townreads without thinking about why). The last two points are meh, but the first two I think are pretty clearly scum traits and certainly not "null at worst" from any perspective. The filter length defense is the only good one I've heard, but filter length is not everything. If people really don't want to lynch Xatalos, I'll obviously consolidate onto someone else. But I do think I made a strong case and I feel good about it. Uh, isn't that consistent with Xat buying into RNG, townreading me, and pushing the RNG target? The actions you've described are like, the actions of someone who has joined the glory of RNG so unless you're saying "buying into RNG is scummy" I dont' think you've got a case here buddy On October 23 2015 23:24 marvellosity wrote: yes, bussing each other is pussy way out because it means you don't have the balls to tunnel a townie gonna have to try meta Chrome at some point. My evening cleared up (i was gonna be afk all weekend and spring that on you guys when i finished work, but my plans fell through) I don't like any of these posts much. I don't think the anger thing is a good reason to townread yamato. I made an unexplained punt vote on GB and it reads as a bit of a weird defence. I'm also not sure that Chrome should be getting strong townfeels from the post i made rather than others/the whole body of play. Also have this nagging feeling where Chrome described ritoky as picking up on "textbook mafia tells" and he's essentially doing the exact same thing with Xatalos. I don't like it. I understand picking up on Xata's read progression on rayn, I think it's possibly reasonable to be suspicious of that, but the rest of it I don't think I like much. I definitely think Chrom isn't being well-organized on his Xat push. He's on my "people i might consider lynching who are not named raynpelikoneet today" which is fairly impressive since currently that list is very short and includes raynpelikoneet, even though it explicitly excludes him, because of the glory of rng seriously though I can't track that thought process. Still pushing forwards, one way or another I'll have this sorted out by the time I'm caught up with thread. what an adventure! On October 23 2015 23:28 marvellosity wrote: we're not gonna lynch rayn i'm not totally confident he's town but i have enough reason to take him off the table today your call on this since you are obvtown and the best non-me player here, but if he is scum and got rnged, think about how mad he'd be to get lynched cause of that kekeke | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
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On October 23 2015 23:38 Chromatically wrote: I made the point as just a general point not really looking at meta, but when I do look at meta I don't see a lot of filler as either alignment. Waffling I thought I saw more of as mafia than as town, as town I thought I saw a lot more confident reads on people (posting "X is probably town" etc). I didn't think that was strong enough to post though and the post was long enough already. I do disagree on BH, I think the RNG thing at the beginning was entirely not alignment indicative and there was no reason to townread him for it but that's been talked about a lot already and you could be town that just sees it differently (in a way I think is wrong), so I guess that point is fine. The rayn thing the way you said things about him was misrepresenting what he was doing to make it look worse, and I thought that it was weird to jump on him for what you did. If not you (which is looking very unlikely), then probably GB? I'm looking at GB/Slam/BH and I'm kind of out of time right now but I can finalize that later. Onegu I got a town feeling when reading through for some reason, ritoky I kind of liked his BH thing, and Hopeless I'm willing to trust the rayn/yamato read for now. During this non-insubantial post you say: Meta is null BH is null the rayn thing is NAI GB/Slam/BH is scum, but I'm not going to explain it. Also, ritoky's explanation of BH being town was good. What are you even saying bro On October 23 2015 23:39 GlowingBear wrote: I saw it, but don't you agree that Chromatically is being at least productive and Onegu and Hopeless aren't? Hopeless is disinterested just like he was in Avogadro's mini mafia. But especially Onegu. He is sheeping me. How come you think I might be mafia for a bad read on Vivax but Onegu likely to be town for sheeping me into this very same read? I don't see how Chromatically has contributed anything meaningful. Where has he done this? Why are you defending him over Onegu and Hopeless1? On October 23 2015 23:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Let's lynch Slam. ##unvote ##vote Alakaslam I wanna tunnel Xatalos so hard after D1. So hard. I am literally seeing red and i really really wanna do this. And i can't unless i lynch mafia. I'm not a slam afficionado. Explain? On October 23 2015 23:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: Chromatically's oplay is completely different from his scumgames where he basically picks a person and tunnels that into oblivion. Given that I have a hard-on for lynching chrom, I'd appreciate evidence for this. if I don't see it, I'll do the research myself but that's a lot of effort. Do you have an example on hand? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 23 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: and btw this is what GB does as scum. He basically does something that is "too scummy to be scum" then, when called out for it he says "mafia would never do that so i am not mafia". Hell he isn't even really defending his read (see Trfel/Damdred last game), he just says "i would not pick Vivax as my target as mafia because people are townreading him". eh, I guess I see what you're getting at here but compared to the significantly worse issues on hand (low contribution players) is GB the ideal lynch today? If this is really the case, the truth will out in the next day anyways On October 23 2015 23:50 marvellosity wrote: i'll probably choose between GB/Slam if rayn's meta point on Chrome holds up What's the case on Slam? Any detail on this would be good, I generally have difficulty wrapping my head around Slam. On October 23 2015 23:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: Read the last scumgame in database, mainly Koshi's case on him D1. Also what Koshi says there holds up on GoT game aswell. Thanks for this info, but next time, a link would be so much nicer! On October 24 2015 00:11 Xatalos wrote: Unfortunately I think a rayn/marv scumteam makes sense. Because I have difficulties seeing why town marv would defend rayn based on something that never actually happened, in the first moments of the game, and ignoring everything rayn said afterwards.... Even though rayn already has like 7 pages of filter. Marv is NOT SCUM. MARV IS NOT SCUm MARV IS NOT SCUM Look, last game (student XV) Marv was scum and he was so disappointed to roll sucm again he like, conceded during NIGHT 1. MARV IS PLAYING THE GAME, THEREFORE HE IS NOT SCUM. IF Marv was scum, he would basicallyc ontinue to be a super whiny baby and not play. Marv was SUCH A WHINY BABY. UGH. He basically ruined a whole newbie game (a newbie game!) because of what a whiny baby he was about rolling scum. Do you really think he somehow shaped up and stopped being a whiny baby? No, Marv is gonna be a whiny baby until he plays a game or two as town or takes a break. This is true. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 00:16 gumshoe wrote: Gb- I rather not lynch him, his tunnel onto Vivax is probs wrong, but then again I havent really dug into vivax, (but I dont like how he turned around onto Gb / : the guy whose tunneling you tends to be a really easy mark for maf, they can just focus them till lynch and not contribute elsewise, which is pretty much were vivax is at, also I dont like detailed excuses*he done it twice now#),. Overall I think hes just a derpie townie who got caught up in a tunnel with a player whose more null than scummy and now feels compelled to stand his ground. Def been there. This seems spot on On October 24 2015 00:16 gumshoe wrote: Xata- I dont feel hes done little enough good or plenty enough wrong to warrant a lynch today. I could elaborate but meh. I still feel pretty good about chrom and Ritoky(less so about ritoky, but in his defense rayn is kind of a black hole that absorbs all your attention at times) so atm I wouldn't vote them today. Until someone can magically explain why Onegu and Hopeless deserve the benefit of the doubt, my vote will probally fall on them. etween Xat, Chrom, ritoky, Onegu, and hopeless1 I see no serious statements differentiating them, other than that you want to lynch onegu and Hopeless1 from the other three without any explanation? What's the deal broseph??? You must have REASONS for this. You say "unless someone can magically explain..." but your'e the one with magical explanations here. Or magical lack of explanations. Man up and post some. On October 24 2015 00:16 gumshoe wrote: People I need to read more into -Bh(has seemed rather useless as of late) Slam, been letting him off cause Slam, but thats not a good reason to neglect his filter T_T small as it may be. No input on the slam case!!?? Pul it together brometheius On October 24 2015 00:20 GlowingBear wrote: Well, fuck this shit then, lynch me. After I flip, go against Marv because I can't possibly see how can't he see me as town + not willing to lynch Onegu when Onegu has done NOTHING but sheeping me onto the same read he scum reads me for. I'm voting Marv but I know all you pussies won't because he is Marv. And it seems again that he isn't so good as you say. Yeah, see my meta read on MArv. From the XV scum QT (this game is over so the QT is ok to link) http://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/zRTyp8RMU5dNs : "i was never going to try this game very much if i rolled mafia anyway  ""it kinda takes me time to recharge my scum batteries, and i've only played 48h of town since i tried pretty hard as mafia last. batteries low. i will play though. just poorly." "*giggles* we're gonna lose so hilariously hard, it'll be great." Then, night 1: "##concede nothing left for me here" and he had a crappy like 2 page filter http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494452-student-mafia-xv?user=marvellosity&view=all the difference is palpable. In any case, I'm beating a dead horse here so I'll leave it aloen but anyone voting marv is not paying attention to the obvious evidence here. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
I must admit, there's a certain temptation here! On October 24 2015 00:21 Xatalos wrote: Do you honestly think he believes I'm scum based on that? I made an extremely similar push last time I was town and he was scum, and he similarly immediately scumread me for the push. It's actually unbelievable how similar his gut reaction is. And it's very odd how his PoE possibility of Slam being scum suddenly became the best lynch. Even though he's pushed GB for the recent times. And how is PoE even a valid reason for his lynch choice when he has several actual scumreads and overall his reads are nothing consistent? His reads have changed in so many directions that how is Slam still in a similar PoE position? I think he just saw an easy way out of getting lynched today and went for the easy route of sheeping you, even though there's still like 5-6 hours time left. I doubt it's actually PoE, but a mixture of PoE and read On October 24 2015 00:26 yamato77 wrote: I'll be around later today. I have a meeting at lunch and then I'll be free. Will become more active afterward, assuming I can stand this shitty keyboard I am forced to use because my nice mechanical stopped working D: is to too shitty to play counterstrike??? On October 24 2015 00:30 gumshoe wrote: Because it feels too Bang on. like his assessment about Gbs shitposting feels definitive. The way he phrases it is actually perfect and makes total sense. That said, Gb making shit up as he goes along doesnt and bieng totes wrong doesnt make him mafia( I know this for a fact). Yamato is just right and succint, which is something mafia are very good at cause they know everything / : "Too correct" about GB's meta or shitposting isn't actually a reason to mafiaread someone. Like... you're literally saying, and I quote "Yamato is just right and succinct"... so he is mafia. You're calling hm mafia for having good reads. How do you get to this place, mentally? How does that happen, where someone comes in (and I'm not saying I think Yam's reads are good here-- but you clearly think so) and says "wow, this guy makes a lot of sense!.... CLEARLY HE IS SCUM HUE HUEH UEUEHUEHUEHUE" like how does that happen, what happened to you? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 00:37 gumshoe wrote: which is quite easy for an effective scum player to do no? Honestly I know Tl players are amazing after what must be at least half a decade of constant play. But the only thing really seperating our two factions is knowledge, a player appearing too effective (as is the case with yamato in my eyes atm) in such a short space of time and posting is something that should always concern us. But after the gb martyr I'm down to kill him as I doubt a yamato lynch could even happen unless gb flips green. but please elaborate on hopeless, I dont got your history or your meta, he just seems totes worthless something I will never again take for granted after one particular game. Same objection here. You can't say that someone being effectively, helpful, and right makes them scum or bad things will happen I would kill GB for the martyr, not cause I expect him to flip scum necessarily but because martyring is a scumtell imo, always fake, never real, always lynch to discourage it cause it's awful. IT's like people using IRL excuses On October 24 2015 00:42 gumshoe wrote: Basically the people I would want to see lynched Onegu-hopeless (both are interchangeably useless to me) yamato-gb (these two are a matching pair, yamatos read on him was felt so accurate he is ether just right and awesome, or mafia taking advantage of gb being wrong about vivax) probably wouldn't vote for anyone else outside these 4. This is a bit better laid out but I'll wait and seeif I can see your response to my previous post On October 24 2015 00:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because if you fail to realize your read on Vivax is actually really terrible then there is nothing to talk about that one. If you can't understand, when four players, me, marv, yamato, and Vivax (and to some extent other players -- well basically all of them) call your read bad, you should probably at least think your read can be bad, as we can't all be mafia, right? Instead of doing this, you come back and say "but i would never do this as mafia". Your read is bad, regardless of Vivax alignment, that's a fact. Yet you are just sitting there on that read doing nothing. Onegu is likely town for his approach towards me early on in the game. Same goes to Hopeless. Furthermore, last time i asked Hopeless to do shit when he was mafia he didn't do shit. I agree Hopeless isn't doing much but is trying to do something, and that is a towntell for him. I will never lynch Hopeless or Onegu here on D1. Never. And you should not either, especially with players like Slam in the game (or even Blazinghand who hasn't actually done jack shit this game). Or ritoky, or gumshoe. Never ever. The last three of those have posted but all of theirs posts have nothing much to say. Now not all of them can be mafia, because Slam is definitely scum, and i can't even know which one of them is/isn't scum, but i am most certain of Onegu not being mafia. Basically Onegu just doesn't care, which is not what his scumplay looks like, and while i hate the way he plays, that's what he does as town. So if you are town get your head out of your tunnel'y ass and start considering also what other people say, especially when almost everyone in the game shares the view OPPOSITE of yours on Vivax. these townreads on H1 and 1Gu are interesting and I will look into it to see if that's accurate. I don't remember much from either of them. Thanks for the heads-up On October 24 2015 00:55 gumshoe wrote: Am I voting for you right now? No I am not. But between Onegu and you, we get more info out of your death so I wouldnt be too sad to see yah go (yamato basically never gets lynched unless you flip green and even then its unlikely). but yeah I think your just butthurt town, which is why I am voting for Onegu : P but I am not the best mafia player here and I am quite often wrong and overthink things. So maybe you are scum and I'm too thick to see it. Someone once said mafia is more about choosing the right person to sheep rather than only listening to your own reads, so that is unfortunately a consideration I intend to make this game / : ^-- really? this is a classic scum post. info out of his death? acting nonchalant with a push? What are you even doing gumshoe, at this point you might as well be gumdrop. Don't want to overthink things? Just say what you mean and mean what you say. Take stances. Be a man. Do the right thing! We don't lynch for information, we lynch to lynch scum. That's how this game works. Lynch whoever has the best chance of being scum. On October 24 2015 00:56 GlowingBear wrote: You fail to realise that I asked your opinion exactly because my townread were saying my scum read is town. But then, when you come to the thread, you scum read me. What am I supposed to do, listen to you and vote me???? Like, seriously, you and Marv could simply answer my question. But instead you decided I'm scum. I AM considering what other people say. Unfortunately, they are saying I'm scum, and that's wrong. I really don't know what I'm supposed to do. What you don't do is martyr. You don't say "fine, lynch me." You say "let me tell you about this guy I Think is scum." and you start talking, writing cases, reading, etc. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 01:04 Hopeless1der wrote: Surefire ways to get lynched: 1) Tell marv he cant do it. HAH. On October 24 2015 01:08 Alakaslam wrote: The general idea behind these posts is becoming less true every day (though it once was perfectly reasonable). Marv, you know how to do the same thing and actively do so. When was our last game together? My last game with Xata? But my saying this is purely nai. This is a non-defense, Slam, and we both know it. On October 24 2015 01:08 raynpelikoneet wrote: ''For the record, why Xatalos' read on me is shit and why i think he is scum is this: This is a complete mischaracterisation of my play. I never ever do this. I never do this as town, i never do this as mafia. I have never changed my read on anyone without a reason or a "reason" (as mafia). I always have a reason for why i post the things i do. I have clearly explained every single read change i have had in this game (which is basically GlowingBear, Xatalos himself and ritoky). I went onto a long conversation about ritoky earlier, and at that time apparently there was nothing wrong with it for him. But now again it is a reason for scumreading me? I have also explained why i changed my read on GlowingBear, at that time there was nothing wrong with it for him? It should be really easy to see why i think Xatalos is mafia - or at least a bit earlier - why i reconsidered my read on him. Slam's points on me are literally shit, and as marv pointed out Slam just decided he calls me mafia nad then started quoting my posts and called them scummy. All of his points are unture, what he says i have for example done in the last couple of games -- i have literally did the same thing (which makes me scumread GB too, as he should know Slam's points are shit, yet he doesn't address them -- as i just acted towards GB the same way in the last two games). Somehow Xatalos thinks those points are good? Bullshit. Bull-fucking-shit. Another thing is he is trying to paint my read on him as OMGUS when there is nothing even close to that. I have actually reasons to think he is scum. He isn't trying to figure out my alignment, and to be honest this is kinda funny because all he says is "he did the exact same thing last time he was mafia and i caught him", funnily enough this is the EXACT case i myself made on rsoultin in that game. He is also not not even re-considering his read in any way when marv, who is the only person who can ever read me correctly all the time, heavily disagrees with his read. Instead he decides that we must BOTH be mafia. I find it almost impossible to believe that's what he actually thinks.There is basically no way Xatalos thinks i am most likely to flip mafia here. I could understand he thinks i am mafia, but not like this, and not for the reasons he pulls out of his ass. He is basically not a person who "yolo's" a scumread like this without digging further into it. If he did, he would see that: 1) my reads are not actually unexplained, nor are the changes on them, it's really easy to see why i do the stuff i do 2) me acting like "i did as mafia" is a pure mischaracterisation of my play. The read is wrong and lazy as fuck, and misses all the reasoning for me to do things i do (which btw is there if you read closely). Honestly you're putting in a lot of effort so despite RNG i'm not actually lynching you today. I really WANT you to be scum but there are much bigger fishes to fry and you seem to actually be trying to figure out the game a bit? I won't be voting you or pushing the RNG thing, all joking aside. I doubt the wagon will get serious momentum without my support and I am the shenannigan king so you are safe On October 24 2015 01:14 GlowingBear wrote: I think best lynch today is BH. We all agree he has been lackluster and we have yet to see him being suspicious of a player. I don't remember him having scum reads clearly you forgot my glorious scumread on rayn also, you don't want to pick this fight trust me On October 24 2015 01:16 Xatalos wrote: Well, it is OMGUS. It literally went like "Xatalos is prolly just town" -> "oh wait, he scumreads me?" -> "100% scum" in like... a couple of minutes. Your reads ARE very weird and especially their progression. You've pretty much went against anyone currently "under fire" regardless of your previous stances on them. Whenever thread sentiment turns against someone, you conveniently find some scummy post that you forgot about him earlier and vote for him. The same thing repeated with ritoky, GB and me... Town -> scum because of thread sentiment / OMGUS, not because anything actually changed in reality. rayn's scumread on you had to do with your read progression on me and him. It is worth noting, though, rayn, that xat really hasn't played with me as scum, he hasn't seen my stuff first-hand. you see Xat people who have played with me before don't trust me on meta things. Any time you can say "due to meta, BH is town, he never does X as scum" if it's something that's easy to do as scum, that statement has no meaning. you've never seen my scum play, so you couldn't know, but that's how it be. a hypothetical scumread read on ritoky though is more reasonable since ritoky did play cell mini with me though | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 01:32 Alakaslam wrote: This makes sense. Alright. As for where I am, I just made a post on Marv suspecting chroma, and am starting to think Marv may just be off on reading me specifically and trying to see his pov with less bias. So There is that. BH is someone I would not lynch. I wouldn't lynch ritoky either. I am voting Rayn short of a better alternative, was dead certain but I still recognize that Marv is better than I am at this. He may be scum, but that is based pretty heavily on whether or not Rayn is and I flipped associations are newbie textbook level bad. This issue is my primary focus, you were my secondary and I had no tertiary. In general, Slam's buddying of me makes me pretty nervous cause at this point in time there's no particular reason to townread me On October 24 2015 01:39 Xatalos wrote: Tbh my current scumteam would be rayn/marv/Chromatically, but I'm pretty sure I'm wrong on at least one. There are too many people who have done barely anything (Onegu/Hopeless mainly I think, and several others haven't done much later in the day). It's pretty likely there could be scum among that group. yeah i feel no reason to pay attention to you atm if that's your theory. marv obv town On October 24 2015 01:41 raynpelikoneet wrote: Here is the first thing that made me think Slam is mafia (after my initial vote -- that was really just for PoE and for pressure): Here is a post Slam makes: This is however not what he thinks as town. This is what he thinks as town: Therefore his "defense" on himself makes sense from scum perspective, as he thinks noone can catch him if he is scum. It also makes him "being able to do whatever he wants". He later on decides i am scum for: this is not what i am doing, however much Xatalos wants to claim so. It doesn't make it true. this is not "opinion all over the place". It's a very clear post that follows my filter and my thought process 100%. There is nothing "all over the place" here. Literally. Now this is the most interesting part. Again i have literally done the same thing in my last two games: Battle of the Drams - where i ignored GlowingBear's and rsoultin's posting until they started saying something interesting / scummy -- that's what i have been doing lately because i don't want to argue with everyone and i can actually trust certain players' reads on them. Firefly - where i ignored GlowingBear (until yamato called him sure scum) and Cake -- for similar reason than in Drams. Now Slam even played in the earlier game and i actually did many 180's in that game, i even flip-flopped my read on himself for like two days, because i couldn't decide if he is mafia or not. The point here is Slam should know i do the stuff he claims i am mafia for as town -- and says i don't do it. Not gonna fly Slam, you're scum. Slam's theory on his lynch time as well as his "critique" of your post are both way off. It's possible at the time (and at this point, as far as people knew, I was gonna be on Rayn like a dog on an ass-flavored biscuit) he thought he could roll into the wagon I was driving and hide. Although I think it's more telling that ritoky had been in cell than any of this other stuff, rayn's reaosning seems solid and slam's meta case seems wrong. So I'm gonna say "slam is one hundo percent wrong on rayn, and kinda obviously wrong, and also lying about his own meta". I like where this case is going. I'm dropping down a vote on slam tentatively until I'm caught up. ##vote: Alakaslam | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 01:45 Alakaslam wrote: I want the town to remember the 40's of this game. So obvious that Rayn and Marv are working together in a dubious fashion and in the 50's, they disappear after I start talking about their lack of logical answering to xata's perfectly good questions. They ar using seniority to push bad reasoning, which is a senior scum tactic. There is no reason to use their seniority this way other than to push mislynches. I no longer give two shits Marv's read on chroma. OK, but marv is like super clearly town so him working together with rayn just makes me think he has a townread on rayn. Rayn is a smart guy, if he's town I'm sure he's figured out marv is town just as I have, so I don't see any issues here. On October 24 2015 01:47 Alakaslam wrote: I didn't say you don't have fluid reads, which is what you assert here. I said your reads here are not fluid, they are wild. Hence the compass analogy. getting pedantic is not helping your case broseidon On October 24 2015 01:52 gumshoe wrote: Slam feels... different, I typically see him as a derpy jokey player, but hes pretty intense this game. Breaking meta for sure, not certain what it means though. Rayn seems pretty amped up, I feel like he started the game angry and just gets angrier as the game goes on, but the rage hasnt been too focused. Rayn is perfectly capable of tunneling one person forever and coming up with all manner of bullshit on them, but he really has been all over the place, which would suggest he is actually trying to figure stuff out in his own way. Or hes just flailing, trying to get whatever lynch to go down. As for slam, def some wierd stuff cropping up here and there. in context with mah yamato case, this is a bit sketch, if Slam pushed to get gb lynched based off association with yam, and gb was town, his flip would in no way impact yamato. It's a small thing / : for sure. Mostly I dont want rayn to be scum, because then Bh will be right and well never hear the end of it. But I'm not sure slam is scum either. I dont like this lynch choice at all T_T rayn being scum would be hilarious but if he's town he'll get shot eventually anyways probably. I'm not pushing the RNG on him today and he's not even close to someone I would want to lynch. He's trying, he's posting, he's arguing. Amazingly, just by putting in a good-faith effort to play the game and making plenty of posts qualifies anyone to come in top 50% of players On October 24 2015 01:55 Xatalos wrote: Haha.... Be ready for BH's mention of this game next time around... I wonder where BH went to though. historically, RNG has worked 1 out of 4 times, I think, so it worked 25% of the time, which is about what you'd expect since 25% of players are scum. I wonder if games iwth RNG in them (regardless of if it works) have a higher town WR though? On October 24 2015 02:01 Xatalos wrote: Maybe.... But I really, really doubt Slam is scum. in detail? actually Hopeless1 sheeping marv/rayn is the kind of thing that makes me think he might actually be town, though it's tough to tell given his effort level hue On October 24 2015 02:17 gumshoe wrote: uselss is scummy ) : I dont like using meta vs players who are fairly useless regularly. Meta is a tool best used vs a player who is really active because over time provided they haven't vastly changed their personality, their habits should show through (hard to avoid it with 20 plus page filters). Shit players usually are much less hard pressed to recreate thier bad play cause it's just far less work. My whole scum strat is to recreate my town self's bad habits, and I can tell you for a fact it's far bloody easier to simulate lurkshoe then actshoe. Useless=scummy one way or another. I have literally seen good players go into thier mafia qt and do the following "so I'm gonna lurk till my lynch day, then i'll show up and say I was indisposed, no one will lynch me cause that would look too bad out of maf" AND WE DIDN'T FUCKIN LYNCH HIM. Between slam and Rayn, I wanna lynch neither. Unless my vote is absolutely required I wont be voting for them / : I dont read chrom as particularly bad anymore their but I will go over his filter once more before dead line to be sure. Then you need to WRITE a CASE and convince people. You haven't convinced _me_. Options and wagons don't just appear, you have to force them to exist using effort dude | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 02:53 yamato77 wrote: hm slam not a terrible lynch given his insistence on being "unreadable" I think as town he becomes indignant and actually mad if people try to lynch him, this seems more like a mafia tactic. I don't necessarily disagree that GB looks better but I'm rather hesitant to sleep on the idea of lynching him entirely. Rayn is just not mafia here I don't think. Unless he is mafia with marv and they both successfully pocketed me. I doubt this though, because literally everyone thinks I am town now so lol. I don't really want to lynch Onegu but I admittedly haven't read his probably short filter either. so who's top of the list for you if, say, we don't lynch slam? On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: So after catching up. Marv is more active but still useless... Like really the best a town marv has is pushing a slam lynch. I guess he pushes GB. Hrmmm guess that is alot more than his last few games. I think gumshoe is falling into the onegu rule. Rayn is like 90% of his town meta. Yamato did some stuff looked townie. GB rolled my RnG. Havent seen BH again since the start. IIRC he had some reads other than his RnG lynch. Townish I think. Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. I have forever given up on attempting to read slam. Would lynch or wouldnt lynch. Not really top priority. Xata many reads, big filter. he is like 99% town. Rayn my friend you should get off of this one. UMMM... Who else.... Oh chrome completely forgettable. Scum read. Vivax will trust yamato's read on him for now. Ummm..... No more Mabs or Town! since my rant post it must have worked. Damn I am good at this game. You all call me useless but then you all know my reads are normally right on. Unless they are completely wrong. It is never a mix of right and wrong. And I am more right than wrong. do you actually have a scumread or case? maybe we should lynch onegu jsut for this truly awful list post, who's in? Also for that RNG thing. Wow actually yes I'm now caught up to my first post in the "catching up to posts" series. Replies inc | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 24 2015 03:00 Onegu wrote: Nope. Me forgetting you are in the game means you must be scum. This is really bad On October 24 2015 03:03 Xatalos wrote: Hm Onegu's return seems okay... Although why is rayn 90% town? Elaborate? how was his return okay, he just called a bunch of people null and town with no cases, ideas, or reasoning, and then said he rnged sheeping GB. How was this even a tiny bit okay???? On October 24 2015 03:07 GlowingBear wrote: Sorry, why is he okay? BTW I'm pretty sure Vivax is mafia now. He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too. I can't understand what you guys find townie in him. Lack of content there is disturbing possibly, but what are your thoughts on Onegu? his entrance was super distubring On October 24 2015 03:08 marvellosity wrote: Meta point on Chromatically: In Detention (town) he didn't give a single townread on day 1 In Order Mafia (mafia) he did In this game he has given town reads I'm looking at this because it was a couple of his posts on townreads that made me raise my eyebrows EEENTERESTING. I am not a chromatically fan, as you know. Are there others interested in this or is he not on deck for potential shenannies today? On October 24 2015 03:09 yamato77 wrote: BH knows this, lol wtf is with that question, BH? Do you really not understand how I play? I always forget. We play more CS or Dota than we do Mafia together. Don't worry, you're not getting lynched today kiddo On October 24 2015 03:13 marvellosity wrote: tbh after reading Chrome's last mafia game and his last towngame i think he could still easily be mafia not sure i want to pursue it today though I'm game for shenannies | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 24 2015 03:43 Xatalos wrote: It wasn't a decisive part really, but Slam brought up the whole issue of rayn's read on GB and how it shifted based on thread sentiment rather than anything changing about GB. He was first oddly certain about GB being town, then suddenly oddly certain about him being scum (and this happened because of pressure gathering on GB, not because he said new stuff). I don't really see why rayn should have dropped the GB read as scum since GB is still a lynch candidate. Do you townread Chromatically and why? I didn't have marv as scum back when I made that post. Currently I'm leaning towards the possibility. Mostly because of his odd hard defense of rayn that was based on something that didn't even happen. It makes the most sense in the event of a rayn/marv team, but we'll see if that's the case. I do not TR chromatically. As I've chronicled, he's said a lot of things that don't make sense. I think along with Slam I'd find him and Onegu to be on my lynch list, though I strongly prefer 1Gu to Chrom based on 1gu's entry to the thread a page or so back. On October 24 2015 03:46 Chromatically wrote: Are you trying to say that Xatalos' read on rayn is based on him following RNG? Oh, was it not? On October 24 2015 04:25 Chromatically wrote: BH didn't you have a townread on me? When did you get this hard-on for lynching me? When you started being awful On October 24 2015 04:29 Xatalos wrote: I think the high amount of veteran players in this game might help in that regard, but I can understand your point.... Trust me, he'd be real mad. he's town. On October 24 2015 04:32 marvellosity wrote: BH - re: Slam there was the post I quoted of his earlier, the post where he originally has a go at rayn about his vote on him. The post where he says he'll never get lynched before lylo and rayn is suspicious for going after LHF. Well the thing is, Slam as town has always somewhat reconciled himself to being lynched. In fact, he's often asked to be lynched so he doesn't burden his team later on. This meta may well have changed, he's become more self-confident or whatever. But I think the switch to "you are voting me therefore you are suspicious, and i am unlynchable" is too much. After this post he kinda periodically quotes rayn and calls his posts suspicious, based on not very much. Then when I also become suspicious of Slam, he doesn't really think why I might be suspicious of him, he just lumps me as mafia along with rayn. It's the true definition of omgus because he doesn't actually have any other reason to be suspicious of me other than the fact I am voting for him. He makes posts like "the way marv and rayn are arrogant this game is telling" without explaining how it's telling. I'm seeing no passion, no fire, no sparks of... anything in his play. Is it a slam dunk case? No, it isn't. But i have reasons to townread a lot of other people so my pool is kinda smallish. Can't see why he should be town. Hmm, yeah, I'm on board. I'd much rather lynch Onegu though. Heh, Slam dunk. Heh. On October 24 2015 04:33 marvellosity wrote: lol "slam" dunk i'm a genius heh. On October 24 2015 04:49 gumshoe wrote: xat was a scum read of mine early on, but his sheer level of activity detterd me from pursuing so didnt waste mah time there. Onegu and hopeless had >2 page filters and most of thier commentary was fairly banal jokey and worthless. Felt this went without saying. Chrom and ritoky were entangled together, I found ritoky townie from his initital pounce on to me (though my opinion has changed since) chrom also just came off over time as really active and sincere so I revoked mah earlier scum read on him. I generally tend to not go too much into mah town reads cause they dont interest me, and there wasnt much to say on onegu and hopeless, the mix made for a shallow one. As for Slam, gonna be honest, me finding him townie is more an asociation thing. Basically people I dont like are calling him out for very little reason. That and his death match with Rayn feels dumb and townie. Can you go in depth about the association? Also, if you actually READ Onegu's filter you'll find there's nothing of value there, 2 pages o no. On October 24 2015 05:35 Xatalos wrote: Hm... I guess that's not impossible. I think it was a bit odd how BH unvoted rayn just when rayn became the leading wagon. There are still reasons to townread BH though. rayn has been the leading wagon all game, so literally any time I unvote him it would be when he was the leading wagon. Is it possible that maybe... maybe I jsut think he's not the best lynch today? Like do you really think he's a better lynch than 1gu? Really? | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:05 Xatalos wrote: Whatever happened with rayn? You were still talking about the RNG on him a while ago and him being otherwise scummy, but now he's not an option anymore? If he's town he'll probably be shot (After marv) anyways. I'm not worried. RNG is just a tool used to generate discussion, though I'll never admit it. And it worked fine for what it was. Let's focus on actually catching scum. On October 24 2015 05:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: well i am not scum BH so there is that. That makes your rng being right 0% of the time, 100% of the time. HISTORICALLY IT HAS WORKED AT LEAST ONCE OK On October 24 2015 05:23 Xatalos wrote: Oh, there's Onegu too I guess. are you game for shenannies? | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:31 marvellosity wrote: i'm not quite sure what you're saying but i think i like it it looks non-routine Come on, give me a break. I'm trying to win the damned game. You can't say "RNG Meta can't prove BH town cause he'd imitate it as scum" then say "well, he's not doing the exact same thing so he's scum" (and let's be clear: at least once or twice I have backed off my RNG target and voted someone else; this is nothing new). So not only are you inconsistent, you're inconsitent based on a WRONG premise. Yes, I often push my RNG target into the ground, but not always! I can be reasonable, you know! | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:43 marvellosity wrote: BH's RNG did work once ironically, his RNG has landed on town far more than the statistical probability clearly that means it's due to happen now hueheue ok so he's down for Onegu? Onegu? obviously scum? entered the thread scummy, did scummy things, came back in a few hours ago pretending to have read but clearly didn't read anything or have any cases or votes, and when pressured, flopped around like scum? Pretends to be sheeping GB, bad RNG? Vote Onegu yes? ##unvote ##vote Onegu I'll vote slam if necessary to save rayn, but come on, we all WANT to vote Onegu and are just scared to do so. Give it a try. Put a vote on Onegu. just the tip. just to see how it feels. | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:44 marvellosity wrote: BH you totally missed the entire point of that post. ritoky is attacking xatalos, not you. oh did I herp the derp I was getting really mad, hahaha. like REALLY mad. the one thing I hate more than anything is people applying incorrect meta to me | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: no BH, no. yes, BH, yes. | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: I think you should claim. I am the Cop and I have 12 red checks on 1gu Seriously though, don't you think 1gu is more likelyt o flip scum than slam? Let's mve some votes on him and just see how things look. Come on MArv you know you WANT to lynch him. Just move the vote on, you can move it back if you don't like it | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:48 ritoky wrote: i am committed to my course. ##unvote ##vote: onegu Thanks! Be on hand to move back to slam if there's no 1gu critical mass | ||
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1. look at this filter http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?user=Onegu&view=all 2. even after this post? On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: So after catching up. Marv is more active but still useless... Like really the best a town marv has is pushing a slam lynch. I guess he pushes GB. Hrmmm guess that is alot more than his last few games. I think gumshoe is falling into the onegu rule. Rayn is like 90% of his town meta. Yamato did some stuff looked townie. GB rolled my RnG. Havent seen BH again since the start. IIRC he had some reads other than his RnG lynch. Townish I think. Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. I have forever given up on attempting to read slam. Would lynch or wouldnt lynch. Not really top priority. Xata many reads, big filter. he is like 99% town. Rayn my friend you should get off of this one. UMMM... Who else.... Oh chrome completely forgettable. Scum read. Vivax will trust yamato's read on him for now. Ummm..... No more Mabs or Town! since my rant post it must have worked. Damn I am good at this game. You all call me useless but then you all know my reads are normally right on. Unless they are completely wrong. It is never a mix of right and wrong. And I am more right than wrong. this was his "catching up" post that should contain most of his thoughts on D1 btw | ||
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On October 24 2015 05:53 Chromatically wrote: Honestly I don't have a problem with that list post from Onegu. even though there are no cases or explanations, and his filter is otehrwise pretty much devoid of them, and he's explicitly sheeping GB with no explanation? | ||
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##unvote ##vote: alakaslam | ||
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##CHROMESHENANNIES | ||
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##vote Alakaslam | ||
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On October 24 2015 06:17 Xatalos wrote: Well..... All I can say is that if this is marv's current scumgame, then he's probably town here... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494452-student-mafia-xv?user=marvellosity Wow Xat, you successfully deduced that Marv's scumgame is really bad and apathetic right now how could you figure that out so quickly without help? so clever, you get towncred from me for your original discovery oh no wait oh oh no the opposite of that | ||
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On October 26 2015 02:32 Xatalos wrote: Btw BH: where did you get that sitewide ID of a post? Just out of curiosity. Right click the timestamp and copy the link address / destination. Also, your earlier depiction of me being active during the first part of D1 and not during the second part of D1 is pretty hilariously bad given that I didn't really start playing until the last 12 hours of D1, and like 90% of my contributions happened then. Get on point boy | ||
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On October 26 2015 02:38 Xatalos wrote: If you're hanging around, could you play now as well >.> It's getting too apathetic and scum may be just hiding among the lurking in the worst case. yeah, I was a bit tied up with dinner but now I'm bringing my A=Game. I'm going over the end of D1 and doing some analysis now. I saw a couple bigger posts int he past few pages that I'll need to poke at as well. any requests | ||
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On October 26 2015 02:42 Xatalos wrote: If your playstyle is on-demand, then here are some demands: 1) What are your scumreads right now? 2) Do you still townread rayn and why? Did RNG fail you? 3) What do you make of the flips of Slam and marv? 1) 1gu and chrome, though this is not having analyzed anything that happened after the end of D1 2) yes, because rayn rarely fakes anger. No, RNG worked great, Rayn is obviously one hundo perecent scum 3) sometimes slam flips town in situations like this. that's to be expected. Marv getting shot makes sense, he was obvious town and he certainly would never get that upset about slam flipping town as scum. Besides myself Marv was the best player here and was universally townread by people that matter (read: me). | ||
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Looking at his filter, at the end of page 9 is the end of Day 1: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?user=raynpelikoneet&page=9 In the short succession we have: On October 24 2015 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: wGFhy do i play with trolls hy do i play with people who are .............iusfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfasfaoC A On October 24 2015 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: FUCK On October 24 2015 06:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: i know the exact fucking reason for that. This all seems fairly reasonable to me. He's upset, and also upset at slam. Then a few minutes later: On October 24 2015 06:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: i am qeffectively quitting this game because this is not fun. On October 24 2015 06:19 Xatalos wrote: Why do you call him troll? He played this game more seriously and focused more on scumhunting than I've ever seen him do. Last time he was scum, he only trolled all game. Nothing like that here. On October 24 2015 06:20 raynpelikoneet wrote: because he is a fucking troll a fucking troll and nothing more On October 24 2015 06:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: doesn't even mater anymore. you are a troll too. fuck why do i fucking join games with stupid idiots who don't even fucking TRY to play mafia. I am so fucking pissed off. So.. fucking.. pissed.. off. On October 24 2015 06:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: i don't. he should be lynched 100% of the games he "plays" in. On October 24 2015 06:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: mmm i cant deal with this rn.. i am gonna break something otherwise. brb On October 24 2015 06:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: [21.10.2015 14:23:50] Joni Toiviainen: bleh [21.10.2015 14:23:55] Joni Toiviainen: Slam joined the Rels game :/ [21.10.2015 14:24:55] Joni Toiviainen: almost had a full playable game On October 24 2015 06:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: And this is even nothing more than just bitching. I am done trying to be nice to people i don't like. sue me. I actually consider the first part of this to definitely fall into "reasonable anger at slam flipping town." Threatening to quit a game due to being mad at a townflip isn't on its own a problem (though following through is). Also, I agree with rayn that I feel a certain amount of raw, angry frustration at how annoying and difficult it is to play with alakaslam. Xat, you seemed to have some kind of ability to read him, but for most people slam is just a pain to play with as a player and as a human being. Rayn feels like his fun has been ruined. I commented on this earlier when Rels was suggesting a vanilla game, but your typical strategies for clearing away deadweight players like slam (cop checks, vigi shots, etc) are out the window in games like this so you need to have an alternative strategy. Some people have reasonably argued that due tot he high level of play on TL, we don't actually need to worry about this. We have for the most part, productive and intelligent players who don't lurk or do bad things. And I think, in generla, that they are right. What's amazing is, right nwo Ia ctually have a ton of time commitmments. I'm hosting two games and playing in this one, and I also eat lots of dinner! And yet, I consider myself one of the "active" players in this game, despite my rather meager 5 or 6 (maybe more now) pages of filter. So what's going on here exactly? Well, basically, we have a lot of lurk happening in this game. People like ritoky (no offense ritoky) latching onto players like me is one thing; that's fine, sometimes you gotta sheep. But then we have like, Hopeless1 and 1gu (though 1gu has gotten better), slam, and Gumshoe, all of whom were like 1 hundo percent acceptable lynches during D1, mostly due to lack of real contributions. It looks like Chromatically has stepped upt oday so he's tentatively off the list, but look at what things were like going into the D1 lynch: We effectively had 5 people all of whom at the time needed a lynch. And in thet ime it takes to lynch 5 people, unless they're like all scum or something, we'll probably lose cause scum will shoot a bunch of us and it's game over. So something like this happening and a slam lynch happening could be deeply upsetting to rayn. Where he goes off the rails though is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=72#1436 Basically, page 72 is just rayn trolling, posting like slam and shitting up the thread. This comes off as really ungeniune compared to his other things. He's also basically stopped playing at this point. I like this post from him responding to the mod warning him though: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=73#1453 cause this is what I would actually expect from an angry rayn. The biting sarcasm is really really on-point in his hypothetical universe of "slam is terrible and is never punished for it, fuck this". Where did this post come from if rayn is scum, Xat? Was he faking this outpouring of hatred and ALSO the snappy response to the mod? Rayn has made only one major post of note since the end of N1, despite his enormous outpouring of spam: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=82#1633 In which he critiques your reasoning process. Overall, I don't find anything particularly suspicious about rayn's outpouring of anger following the D1 lynch. That being said, it has been 48 hours since then. He has had a LOT of time to cool down. Like, it's one thing to say "fuck it, fuck this game" then come back a few hours later and put your nose to the grindstone. Like, people do that all the time. I've done that. Rayn does that in every game heplays, basically, if something goes wrong. Sometimes you get mad and need to step away from the thread. Like me, though, rayn usually comes back and brings his a-game (SF64 mini P1 aside) and tries to win. Actually, SF64 mini P1 is an example of him not doing this as scum, hah. So I'll disagree on anything that has to do with rayn faking anger. He could WELL be faking his anger there, I buy that; but I don't buy that he doesn't get angry as town. This all seems reasonable to me. The thing that stands out as bad is him not coming back to play the game over the cousre of 48 hours. I think Rayn would at least try to step up after the marv death since of the three best players it's just him and me left, if he were town. He's hoping we ignore him with "anger tell" and allow him not to contribute here. so, given his lack of follow-up, I'm onboard with a rayn lynch. Let's vote him and see what he does. This is not for your anger, rayn, but for the emptiness that came with it. The day is young; impress me and you may survive. If you're scum, though, you won't do anything about this. That would be fine. ##vote raynpelikoneet | ||
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hey yam check out my analysis of rayn's anger. You know the man better than me. What do you think? | ||
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Fuck it let's give him another day to shape up I may re vote him when I'm home tonight but that argument with the host just don't sit right with me | ||
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Still eating dinner | ||
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On October 26 2015 08:25 Chromatically wrote: I definitely don't disagree with anything you've said here and I am in favor of an Onegu lynch. Sadly, "not caring about catching scum" doesn't only apply to him this game, it easily applies to GB, Hopeless, yamato at least. The one point "in favor" of him compared to GB in my opinion is that he usually (to my knowledge, haven't checked very much) plays like this, with extreme low effort. There's still some time in the day though so we can see what happens, it's possible I decide that Onegu is a better lynch later depending on how things go. Having GB and Onegu as the wagons is excellent though. +1 to lots of this post | ||
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Also, HtS I see you have marvellosity listed as "Not Voting": Not Voting (4): marvellosity, which, while technically correct, is surely misleading, as he died N1. | ||
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if you do want to actually lynch Hopeless (and I can't tell anything from his filter other than that he seemed vaguely itnerested in the game then never tried and stopped posting) you have to commit to shennannying at the deadline if he's gonna get modkilled, Onegu The reason I bring this up is because I'm imagining the following situation: We pull together a wagon on someone and lynch him, and then you never come back all day and hopeless1 gets modkilled, and you do not particupate in the town discourse all day and we don't know anything about you, and you never had to take any stances.... So here's what Iwant from you, 1gu: a commitment to shenannie if Hopeless1 isn't going to get modkill, and you take part in the day's discussions. What do you say? | ||
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no wait you can't just unvote you also have to like, talk about things | ||
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On October 26 2015 14:44 Onegu wrote: I am sleeping now. ahahaha | ||
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1. 1gu shows up, ignores everyone, votes Hopeless1 who hasn't posted and is likely to get modkilled 2. 1gu decided to peace out 3. I am like "ok dude that is not acceptable. You want to lynch Hopeless1? fine, we'll do it by shenannies if we have to. It's a crap idea to vote him though cause he's probably getting modkilled. either be on him and be ready to shenanny off, or get off him and join the discourse" 4. 1gu is like "haha no i'm just gonna peace and not talk about anything, likely because I am scum" 5. Vivax comes in, and, unable to see due to the pantaloons firmly wrapped around his face, says that I suggested shenannies on hopeless "without really making a decision in GB + yamato" which while not literally false (since I haven't weighed in there yet) definitely misrepresents what I did 6. BH points out that Vivax is really bad 7. Vivax apologises profusely | ||
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let me make it one hundo percent clear for you then: 1gu just fuckin bailed after being aclled out on opting out of the discourse no thoughts on this vivax? | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:22 Vivax wrote: BH where is your contribution in finding out who is mafia in all that? I do admit that I was hasty in reading it as you suggesting a hopeless lynch. But that means you didn't suggest anything, you told Onegu how to play the game. let me show you what's what boyo ##vote Onegu plus I think we both know that I dont' need to do anything to prove myself innocent since I'm getting shot tonight regardless. I am free of the feelings of "pressure" that others may feel since the only guy who might get shot ahead of me normally, rayn, has given up on playing the game. and yes I think rayn is town | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:26 Vivax wrote: No you aren't getting shot, don't try to pull the cocky card on me. Rayn is town in your opinion but GB and yamato have lots of intel on them floating around here and you don't want to pick up on it. look man long and the shrot of it is I think GB is town, just look in my filter for cogent arguments ( I forgot what they were, but I amde them, so they must be cogent) and yamato77 isn't playing so if I had to take a pick I'd lynch yam, sure. but it's not like there's stuff that yam has been doing today for me to analyze. What, you want me to talk about how he did nothing, promised he'd stop, showed up, and then did nothing and left? whoop de frickin do, yes, lynch Yam then. Fine. He's obviously an infinitely better lynch than GB who might actually play the game. Let's not kid ourselves though, there's nothing to actually analyse today and all these people posting long tracts of info, while very praiseworthy for their effort, haven't said more about situations today than I have as of this post | ||
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Currently things are pretty crappy today in terms of contributions, etc. I wouldn't expect much analysis today to be wrothwhile because all the scummiest players are following the strategy of "literally never post ever all day and night and never say anything, except to show up to say they're not saying things" like, against this strategy, there's not a whole lot that can really be done. I think Yamato77 is a fine lynch. I don't know if he has an amazing chance to flip scum, but it's not like we can really not lynch someone who is lurking like that. Hopeless1 and 1gu fall into this category as well, Hopeless1 is probably getting modkilled. Amazingly, despite your complaints about me, I'm a "good contributor" today relative to most people. Between GB and Yam, GB is a townier player. he LOOKS scummier, but that is literally only because he has put nonzero effort into playing the game. Yam has said few scummy things because yam has said nothing at all. There's nothing to analyze about Yam. If we lynch him, we are committing to a policy, or perhaps meta lynch. I am fine with that. But I also don't think there's erally a lot to talk about. I've said what needs to be said. I'm fine with Yam. I'm fine with !gu. Hopeless1 will be mked. We can lynch him if he comes back. GB has actually m ade enough posts that people think he's scum, so... coutnerintuitively, let's not lynch him today capisce? | ||
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On October 24 2015 09:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: I am glad you also warned the troll. Thank you. Which makes me think he really can't be scum | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:35 Vivax wrote: All I'm saying is that I don't think it's a good idea to work towards a third wagon right now unless you have reasons to lay out that yamato and GB might be town. We can only deal with 2 wagons at EoD without giving the three malicious voters too much leverage on the lynch. I voted Onegu earlier myself but I have to compromise with other dudes who I think are town and share at least a scumread with me, cause just one vote won't decide anything. So I see it as bad strategy and potentially scummy way to not do anything if you just ignore the 2 main wagons and do your own thing without considering what others are thinking. I'll have a look at your cogent arguments for GB being town if I find them. I'll summarize them for you, hold on just a sec | ||
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I don't see scum responding to a free vote this way. This is hilarious and fun and spontaneous and probably not what a scum player would do, because scum has to be more calculating. Here's a snippet of you and I discussing GB (edited for some mistakes): On October 24 2015 03:19 Blazinghand wrote: So Vivax, if I understand what you're getting at here, you were tonereaded by GB as scum. After people came in to defend you, GB then said "Vivax is pushing easy targets, so he's still scum". Why is GB scum and not a tunnelled townie for this? I think you raise a good point with the marv flip-flop (though again, marv is easy to read this game, so we don't really care about him) but "this guy got tunnelled and changed his reason for scumreading someone" seems like... well, in a vacuum it seems like the kind of thing a townie would do, especially if it's a little unpopular. Scum could easily change reads (as you note GB did on Marv), so why not do that on you? If I've missed context here, fill me in. Also, if I recall accurately you were one of the early supports of the RNG lynch on rayn. However, glancing through your filter, I don't see anything other than cursory interactions with him between voting him and now, and yet he's no longer on your list. You also write: Which wasn't too long ago. Where do you stand on rayn, and why? I'm not saying "hurr durr vote rayn now" but I'd like to see a clear statement from you on your position on raynpelikoneet, who which I think addressed my thoughts on the early GB play pretty succinctly. On October 24 2015 03:26 Blazinghand wrote: I consider this moderate evidence that GB is town. It would be the easiest thing in the world for GB to drop this, right? So him sticking to it means he must really BELIEVE it (however incorrectly?) more than he cares about living. This isn't a dumbtell, it's a determinedtell. For example, the biggest shitfests between 2 people are always "town and town" cause nobody is more determined and stubborn than a tunnelled townie. I think this is fair point that I make here. This is what tunnelled townies look like. Is it possible, here, Vivax, that you're scumreading GB just because he scumread you, and that got you mad or at least biased? It's a really common thing for Town to OMGUS people, (town or scum), that call them scum, especially for clearly irrational reasonsl ike GB expressed. Now, we can say ":GB is irrational, and we expect town to have a certain logic" and that's a fair thing to say! for sure! but at the same time, scum ALSO has a certain logic. They're looking out for #1. They're not gonna do this, not after getting opposition from rayn and marv, right? They'll blow which way the wind is going, and be forgotten about. | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:44 ritoky wrote: can you people seriously stop defending rayn? seriously. he is refusing to play until xata is dead or just flat refusing to play. stop enabling him. either he is mafia and is being mafia and you're wrong. or he is town and actively sandbagging the game for his team. stop defending him and his behavior. Look, ritokty. You know me, right? You and I played together in Cell Mafia, and you got to see how ruthless I was as scum. I was willing to lie about a house move, a HOUSE MOVE, I took photos of boxes and everything, and pretended comcast disconnected my internet, etc, JUST to get a tiny edge in a game of mafia. I'm ruthless. I'll do anything to win. I don't care about what's right, or what's easy-- just what wins the game. and what I think, is that rayn is not someone we should lynch right now. I think we give him a chance to get back in the game. when I read his angry posts, like you, I thought, "here's a guy who could easily be scum pretending to be mad in order to avoid contributing". And when he tapered off and did nothing, I thought my concerns were justified. And maybe they are! Maybe rayn reailly IS SCUM. This could be true. But I think there's a good chance he's not. I did vote him, you know, until that post, that one post, that niggling doubt, took over me. Rayn arguing witht he mod. Rayn using green text. Doesn't that SOUND like something rayn would do as town? Doens't that sound like real anger? And now maybe, deep down, you're mad at rayn, you think he is town but youw ant to punish him. You think his play is unacceptable and he should be lynched even if he is town to punish him. I understand that. I know where you're coming from. I know what you're feeling becasue I felt it. that kind of play,r egardless of laignment, is bad. It WOULD be poetic justice, even if rayn was town as you might feel inside, to lynch him, for being so bad, for his insolence, for giving up. But you know what ritoky? I'm ruthless. I don't care about justice. I just want to WIN. as scum, i'm willing to lie, to manipulate, to brag, to photoshop, to twist things to win. And as town? I'm willing to throw away my principles. I don't care wehther or not rayn is sandbagging, I don't care whether or not he deserves to die. I just want to win. Look inside yourself, ritoky. Do you hate rayn for what he posted? Or do you think he's scum? I think he's just mad. I think maybe you think that too, and youw ant to punish him. Don't do that. Be ruthless. Make youer heart cold. Let's play to win. | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:50 ritoky wrote: i still think my list is right....maybe....also i haven't really read since i last posted, so i still feel as right as before, which is helpful. lynching into yamato, gb, rayn, hopeless. hopeless really depresses me this game. cuz even if he does come back, barring town rainbow colored poo, i see no way i will make it through the duration of this game not lynching him...that thought depresses me greatly cuz he was funny on day 1 and i thought he was kinda town. I am banking on hope,lss1 getting modkilled. If he comes back and votes (which would allow him to avoid modkill), I will vote him. | ||
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On October 26 2015 17:52 ritoky wrote: BH, why is it so hard to get ppl to vote on GB? i think 75% of the game or more has thought he was mafia at some point or another? I actually don't think the dude is scum, which is why I'm not voting him, but you do raise a good point that if people have been scumreading him and don't want to vote him, that could be a sign of mafianess. IMO the best thing to do in a situation like this is to point out the people individually. Let's say, for example, that Xat (hypothetically) scumreaded GB, but now that the vote comes up, decided to vote for someone else and just stopped calling GB scum. Call that out! Just call out the individuals who have scumreads on GB and aren't voting him. I'm about to On October 26 2015 17:53 ritoky wrote: playing around modkills always comes back to bite town.... i would know, i have used the ninja vote as mafia tactic before to great effect. I give my vow as the shennannigan king that should Hopelss1 return to doj a modkill I will shenannie onto him SO HARD | ||
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Well make it tho just wait | ||
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Thanks ladies and gents, and good night | ||
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So we're all on board then? ##unvote ##vote hopeless1der | ||
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On October 27 2015 04:49 gumshoe wrote: Nah, hes one the only lurkers I could see bieng town. Also hes voting Yamato / : even if hopeless is scum he might just be busing his teammate. I see no reason to shift course. Ehhh I see no reason to think of him as town but if there's no support there's no support. Who are the other guys I should be analyzing besides Yam | ||
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On October 27 2015 04:54 gumshoe wrote: Currently looks like gb or yam for actual lynch. Rayn and Onegu are on the back burner. I dont see anyone whose not in those 4 dying today, even with maximum shananies, ok, thanks for the heads up gumshoe. I'm gonna handle the day post for the student game, then this has my undivided attention | ||
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On October 27 2015 05:05 Vivax wrote: Wtf are you doing wasting your vote BH? Hopeless isnt even that awful compared to his usual standard. Gimme a moment to read up on the wagons, buttmunch. I made a promise and I live by that promise; I voted the man. If that vote ends up not being relevant, I'll change it, but I need to read first. I took all this time last night to be polite to you but I can see it wasn't worth it, so instead I'm gonna have fun and insult you. Here are a couple good ones: I can't believe I took the time to be polite to you when your head is so far up your own ass you take rectal suppositories orally What was I thinking trying to show you the way when you can't find your own asshole with a map and a compass If I was in a room with you, hitler, and stalin and had a gun with two bullets I'd shoot you twice Humans say "what the hell?", and Satan says "what the Vivax?" | ||
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On October 26 2015 12:20 yamato77 wrote: yeah this obviously didn't happen today at the very least I'll do a couple filters after work tomorrow but I'm honestly so disinterested in this game I dunno, it's my fault really, but this wasn't as enjoyable as the last time I played for whatever reason I think I lost it If you go back 72 hours isntead of 24, you get these two gems: On October 25 2015 07:38 yamato77 wrote: CS has consumed my life On October 26 2015 04:08 yamato77 wrote: Alright guys, today I will not play CS and I will play mafia. I have quite a bit of catching up to do lel. Yamato typically has a slow D1 start but I see no reason to TR him based on his performance after D1. My willingness to lynch him remains. He's a lurker on par with hopeless1. Let's make it happen. ##unvote ##vote yamato GB filter dive inc. Last I read of him he was not high on my lynch list based on this: On October 26 2015 17:45 Blazinghand wrote: here are things that stood out to me as townie from GB's filter during my dive a couple days ago: I don't see scum responding to a free vote this way. This is hilarious and fun and spontaneous and probably not what a scum player would do, because scum has to be more calculating. Here's a snippet of you and I discussing GB (edited for some mistakes): which I think addressed my thoughts on the early GB play pretty succinctly. I think this is fair point that I make here. This is what tunnelled townies look like. Is it possible, here, Vivax, that you're scumreading GB just because he scumread you, and that got you mad or at least biased? It's a really common thing for Town to OMGUS people, (town or scum), that call them scum, especially for clearly irrational reasonsl ike GB expressed. Now, we can say ":GB is irrational, and we expect town to have a certain logic" and that's a fair thing to say! for sure! but at the same time, scum ALSO has a certain logic. They're looking out for #1. They're not gonna do this, not after getting opposition from rayn and marv, right? They'll blow which way the wind is going, and be forgotten about. I will update appropriately. | ||
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Rayn questions him on his read re: rayn/slam On October 27 2015 01:05 GlowingBear wrote: Basically I read what people said and it made sense. Because my townread was basically on how your posts were sounding like you were trying to solve the game, but your flip on me was scummy. Basically, you say it's highly unlikely I'm scum, then for something I've proved NAI said by vivax you say I'm scum following the thread sentiment over the same filter you said I was level headed. Then you said I defended myself like I always defended myself as mafia but YOU KNOW I use those arguments regardless of alignment He is pushed for reads, then Vivax says: On October 27 2015 00:56 Vivax wrote: GB what are your current reads? And he replies by quoting his own post from earlier: On October 26 2015 08:15 GlowingBear wrote: Yes, I've tried to read him coming from a townie perspective. He could be town? Yes, but I'm fairly certain he isn't. I have you as town for filter length and activity, you seem to care about the game which is the towniest trait one can have right now. I have chromatically as town, still. I find hard to believe any scum would put so much effort into writing a scum case on you and me, reading filters and shit. I think Rayn can be mafia but his rage quit is giving me pause. Nonetheless, his flip on me + slam's read on him all points out to him being mafia. I don't trust his rage on slam very much because, well, he knows how slam plays and slam was actually being productive - but productive against Rayn. I am very suspicious of Onegu. I will always think he is a good lynch. Hopeless has some townie posts but some of them are too similar to Avogadro's mini mafia. I think gumshoe might be town just because he is defending me. I can't see mafia motivation behind defending me. Now that yamato is extremely unproductive I can see him being scum. As I said, yamato is one of the players that we can have better reads on later days. And here we are. I don't know what to do with BH. Some of his posts seems very townie, others seems like fluff. I particularly dislike his "eternal dining" posts. On the other hand, I think the has being thinking about the game critically, so he is probably town. I don't know if I forgot someone. and calls out rayn for not contributing and being angry. He gets into a long semantic argument with rayn about goodness and badness he follows up with this: On October 27 2015 01:53 GlowingBear wrote: I've said why you're scum, I don't trust your flip on me and that's all there is. To be fair, you usually have been very right on me in most games and I find hard to believe you can be wrong just because Vivax pointed out sonething NAI about me. I even think there were better lynched than you, Rayn. I started today wanting to vote Onegu, kept myself on yamato, but your insistence on trolling simply annoyed me as hell to the point I wanted to get rid of you. Especially when I think you could do that as scum to clutter the thread and disorganise town In which he basically admits he's lynching rayn for irrational reasons. Then he makes a "case" that I don't understand and does not convince me: On October 27 2015 02:48 GlowingBear wrote: 1) this is shit and you know I can call people mafia and further investigate it. 2) it was in my filter and you could've catch up on this by yourself. Instead you just shift the responsibility to Vivax It is a weak reason to call me mafia especially because it's a HUGE shift from this: On October 27 2015 02:49 GlowingBear wrote: That, rayn, and slam's suspicions on you, makes me think you're mafia. Period. and tries to defend his flip-flopping on rayn (on the same evidence set; note that he scumreads rayn for something that rayn did BEFORe he townreaded rayn): On October 27 2015 03:39 GlowingBear wrote: Because I was afraid I could be OMGUSing. Then other people, especially slam, brought suspicions on him and it made sense to me. and then bails Overall I give GB a C- on his execution and effort. I do not like the way GB has handled today, especially since rayn is not a primary lynch target. Let's talk about his yamato read development: He begins about halfway through the day with this: On October 26 2015 08:03 GlowingBear wrote: Let me ask you something, Xatalos. Will a tunneled townie forget about his scumread one day later? Because Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it. I can never see a world where Vivax isn't scum here. Never. Especially now that yamato's inactivity IS indeed scummy, and he is doing nothing, and NOW he's fitting his scum meta. This is his first real mention of yamato, phrased as a series of questions and observations to Xat, 2 hours before he votes Yam, but after Gumshoe votes yam. He doesn't reference gumshoe's case and doesn't describe yamato's meta in detail, other than calling yamato (Accurately) inactive. HE also doesn't vote yamato77 yet. However, in his list post he says: On October 26 2015 08:15 GlowingBear wrote: I think gumshoe might be town just because he is defending me. I can't see mafia motivation behind defending me. Now that yamato is extremely unproductive I can see him being scum. As I said, yamato is one of the players that we can have better reads on later days. And here we are. Which is his main references to yamato and gumshoe in the list case. He quite reasonably points out that giving yamato a pass on D1 is normal, but now it's D2 and we've had nothing from yamato. I like what he's said here but it seems very tentative, like he's testing the waters. This might be fair; he has several votes on him at this moment and is trying to set up a counterwagon. He reasonably says associative tells between unflipped players are bad: On October 26 2015 09:51 GlowingBear wrote: I wouldn't do that kind of association because they could be bussing. Yamato never really voted Vivax and Vivax forgot about him to focus on me. It wouldn't really tell me much. Let's see how the day will unfold. and votes Yam right after this without announcing it in the main thread (as far as I can find). When gumshoe accosts him, he says he's voting Yam: On October 26 2015 12:33 GlowingBear wrote: I'm not defending yamato, I'm voting him. Let me ask you a question: if yamato flips green, does it change your read on me? After this, though, he makes a very convenient claim about his stance on yamato: On October 27 2015 01:53 GlowingBear wrote: I've said why you're scum, I don't trust your flip on me and that's all there is. To be fair, you usually have been very right on me in most games and I find hard to believe you can be wrong just because Vivax pointed out sonething NAI about me. I even think there were better lynched than you, Rayn. I started today wanting to vote Onegu, kept myself on yamato, but your insistence on trolling simply annoyed me as hell to the point I wanted to get rid of you. Especially when I think you could do that as scum to clutter the thread and disorganise town What I saw wasn't a GB who "kept himself on yamato", I saw a GB who tentatively put out some yamato feelers after Gumshoe set up a case, never pushed hard, but eventually was convinced by GS that Yam was the right lynch over 1gu. I don't think there's something inherently wrong with that; he eventually got on board, reasonably enough. But he definitely didn't keep himself on yamato or somehow drive the case. It's not unreasonable for GB to vote for the main counterwagon regardless of his alignment. Actually, GB jumping onto rayn (who isn't getting lynched today) COULD be a sign of GB being town. If I were scum GB here, unless I was somehow scumbuddies with Yam-- I won't speculate about associative tells between unflipped players-- I'd generally want to vote Yam to keep myself alive. Moving OFF of yam and ONTO rayn and then getting into some kind of shitfest argument with rayn... well, it doesn't make a huge amount of sense for a GB who's trying to look good and get Yam lynched. I guess what I'm getting at here is that, in a world in which GB is scum, I expect him to be a bit more calculating than this. That being said, at this moment he's fine with his vote on rayn; there's significantly more support for a yam lynch than his lynch. And I recall someone last night saying "everyone scumreads GB, but nobody actually votes him" which could be a sign of scum activity (did you find anyone who did this, btW? please name names), all of which points to a GB who's playing the part of flustered townie. I guess, looking at this, I still don't think GB is a great lynch today. He's actually trying to play the game, one way or another, and he's definitely putting in more effort than rayn, H1, 1gu, or yam; I don't think we can actually afford to lynch him today when we could be lynching someone who's literally not contributing. Yam clearly prefers to not play this game, and I don't expect him to post anything to clear things up. He's willing to show up each day and vote to not get modkilled (H1 is also in this category; I AM ONE HUNDO PERCENT DOWN FOR SHENANNIES ONTO H1 BTW) and honestly we can't afford to not lynch people who do that. There's no cop or vigi to save us, we have to do this ourselves sigh | ||
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Blazinghand
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On October 27 2015 05:48 Chromatically wrote: He explained it pretty well in my opinion: + Show Spoiler + On October 23 2015 07:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: I might be wrong on GlowingBear, what Vivax said makes a lot of sense tbh. It's like GB goes "i call this thing scummy then i ask about it" when it should be another way around if he didn't know the reasoning of Vivax' reads. If he doesn't care about the answer (=scummy anyways, as he seemed to think so), why even ask? On October 23 2015 08:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because i can see how it makes sense in your world, it doesn't change the fact i consider it dumb. That's not why i read ritoky mafia. And i can read Hopeless very well. Probably better than anyone in this game. I missed some stuff on GB, he looked level headed enough for me to consider him town and he is another person whose posts i pay very little attention to at least early on, unless ofc i think he is mafia. But he's not up for lynch today really so not super relevant right now. Compare to GB's justification: His justification is that he could be OMGUSing. Do you ever read someone's posts and say "oh those are scummy, but I'll give you a top townread because I might be OMGUSing"? Admittedly, GB's actions don't make sense. If the Yam wagon I am on is defeated by the GB wagon, I won't shed a tear for GB's death. That doesn't necessarily mean we shoudl be like, having a super hard-on for lynching GB. A single nonsensible read progression does not a scum player make! Can you understand why, though, I see players like Yam as more of a threat to our ability to win, though? | ||
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"It's possible Yam is town, and we have no way of knowing, since he's not playing. Also he was playing video games on steam or something. In any case, I'm not gonna lynch him for inscrutable reasons, and he will remain inscrutable" Like, rayn for example, if he's really actually mad, I predicted we needed to give him time (and also had a strong towntell from that argument with the host) and lo and behold, he made some attempts to play in the second half of this day. Did he do a good job of it? No, rayn did a shit job of it. And we can critique him for that. We can also critique GB for doing a shit play. In fact, I 100% promise you there is more shitty things that GB did than shitty things that Yam did. If you filter dive an dlook for weird inconsitencies, GlowingBear will have more than Yamato. You know why? Cause Glowingbear has made more than 3 posts in the last 72 hours. Here let me show you yam's filter for the past 72 hours: On October 25 2015 07:38 yamato77 wrote: CS has consumed my life On October 26 2015 04:08 yamato77 wrote: Alright guys, today I will not play CS and I will play mafia. I have quite a bit of catching up to do lel. On October 26 2015 12:20 yamato77 wrote: yeah this obviously didn't happen today at the very least I'll do a couple filters after work tomorrow but I'm honestly so disinterested in this game I dunno, it's my fault really, but this wasn't as enjoyable as the last time I played for whatever reason I think I lost it OF COURSE GB is going to have more weird flipflops and flaws than yamato; yamato literally hasn't posted. You can't say GB looks worse than yamato and have that be a meaningful statement. You know how I told the host listing Marvellosity as a non-voter was technically correct, but misleading since he's dead? Well, that's also true for listing GB as scummier than Yam. TEchnically, yes, GB is scummier than Yam, but that's becasue Yam literally hasn't posted anything. HE LITERALLY HAS NOT. So what's the deal? Why are we defending Yam? | ||
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On October 27 2015 05:55 Chromatically wrote: I agree with a lot of that post, BH. But honestly I would argue that our biggest threat to our ability to win is lynching mafia, not lynching people who don't play the game. Lurkers are really bad for town in this setup, but I think we have to consider if lynching a lurker is our best chance of hitting mafia. I don't think it is right now, but clearly many disagree. Ok, I totally get what you're getting at here. there's an argument to be made, and it is a totally reasonable one, that perhaps all lurkers are town and all active players are mafia, and we should lynch into the most suspicious active players. And in a sense, I think that is not 100% wrong. For example; I think rayn needed an extension and some time to sort out his rage and unwillingness to play. But there are what, 4 lurkers here out of 11 players? It's almost certain that there's at least one mafia in the lurk group, and there are ones like Hopeless1 and Yamato who are literally playing just enough to not ge tmodkilled (remember, this game has no activity requirement). If I were scum this game, I'd just never post and it would be easy. In fact, I feel really certain at least one scum, or maybe all scum, are doing this. And why not? There's a vocal contingent of people (including the lurkers themselves) who do not want to lynch into lurkers We have to think smarter. Normally, lurkers are handled by modkills for failure to meet posting requirements, or cops, or vigilantes, or at the very least some blues make it to LYLO and claim and we have a narrow lynch pool. We have none of those tools this game. People are abusing the ability to lurk, and sure, ti sounds like they have reasons, but there's no reason scum can't just fake reasons. As scum, I would. We need to solve this problem ourselves. We obviously can't lynch every lurker, since doing so is the same as guessing all scum are lurkers (if 2-3 of them are town, we'll run out of lynches and lose probably first). But we can lynch the worst lurker or two, the ones we'll never get a read on, and I'm gambling on one of them being scum. Obviously none of these guys are gonna shot if they're town. What will you do in LYLO when it's all lurkers and scum, or all lurking scum we're refusing ot lynch? We can't have that. Gb will always LOOK worse than Yam because there's a filter to look at. He could have eaisly chosen to never post and he'd be just like Yam, protected by "well, we can't just lynch lurkers, or we'd lose". GB CHOSE TO PLAY. He chose to play the damn game, to try to solve things, even if he's super wrong and dumb, and MAKING THAT CHOICE, that's a town thing. If he's scum, he didn't have to post SHIT. He just had to let the thread implode. He stepped up! HE STEPPED UP. Don't punish that. | ||
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On October 27 2015 05:57 gumshoe wrote: A useless lurker, WITH scummy traits, whose playing against his meta : P Not a bad shot at all. On October 27 2015 05:57 Chromatically wrote: The yamato lynch isn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination. I'm just very confident in GB. But it's doubtful it will happen today anyway. On October 27 2015 05:59 Vivax wrote: Yam not posting is his scum meta and if he's town and just playing terribly then we lose a day cause he's playing terribly (or not at all). Ace sig brought it on point: "Town is as strong as their weakest player". Not to say yam is a weak player in general but if he's town in this game he clearly is cause he doesn't even have to do much besides posting his opinion somewhat regularly to not get lynched. I actually think the Yam lynch has a decent chance of flipping scum. LIke I said, GB could easily be scum. But he's trying to play the game on some level, so we WILL figure him out, one way or another. He looks scummier than Yam chiefly because he has actually made posts! And whether he's scum or town that would be true. That flip-flop on rayn is bad for sure but can we really afford not to lynch yam here? | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:08 ritoky wrote: I am willing to lynch h1. OK, this brings us up to 3-- ritoky, vivax, and myself. The main wagon, the one on Yamato, has 5 votes. If I unvote, it will have 4. So, we need two more commitments, or one commitment from someone on the yam wagon (gum, xat, vivax) | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:09 Chromatically wrote: BH, do you like a Hopeless lynch over a yamato lynch? ahhhhhhhhh gimme like 10 minutes to filter dive. I did before, but all this arguing about how bad yam is may have convinced me yam is worse | ||
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Hopeless1 has literally only posted one-liners except for this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=107#2125 and similarly dropped off at the end of D1. His excuse was that he was partying all weekend due to his new job, which is less likely to be true (since yam's is true whether he's scum or town). He spent a lot of time tlaking about my rng, voted slam literally expressly as a sheep, and asked/answered a few basica questions. I guess this post by Yam: On October 22 2015 13:35 yamato77 wrote: I wouldn't, because I have like 40 hours to decide. This is one of the issues I have with Xatalos/Vivax and their "read" on me. Do you really expect me to be super active when there's nothing really that interesting to talk about? It's fucking pointless conjecture. No answer to your question will mean a damn thing in 20 hours when I have more substantive stuff to talk about. Sure, it makes you question my alignment, but do I really care? No. When I want to, I'll be painfully obvious town and I'll almost certainly find a better lynch than most of you, and once you realize this, we'll be heading in a better direction. Thinking that you're "putting pressure" on me by forcing me to answer asinine questions is literally the least useful thing you could do at this juncture. If I fail to deliver, you can go ahead and try to get me lynched, but in the mean time, don't delude yourself into thinking I'm scum just because I won't play the game the way you want me to. It's rather silly. Is probably better than the entire hopeless filter combined even though it's mostly BS. Generally, it seems like Hopeless1 is a slightly better lynch to me. At least Yam was like, commenting on stuff what he was alive, right? But honestly both these guys need to die. On October 27 2015 06:12 Chromatically wrote: My biggest problem with a Hopeless lynch is that I feel like tomorrow will turn into an exact repeat of today where gumshoe pushes yamato all day and I don't want to do that all again honestly. Hmm, this is a valid objection I suppose. How about we be ready to shenannie onto H1 if Yam is gonna get modkilled due to failure to vote? This might be the win-win we're looking for | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:21 gumshoe wrote: Yam has been following the thread(hes mostly playing games as opposed to working so I dont doubt it), he may very well pop in, whats more if we lynch hopeless and hopeless flips town as a worst case scenario and then I or Bh or xata get shot, we might not be able to get another wagon on Yam like today, especially with Rayn being a little bitch. Ugh, as awful as it is to admit, this is a valid objection. right now we have a "lynch yam cause he's lurking" coalition of 5 people, and one of those is hopeless1. So if we lynch Hopeless1 and he flips town, and then one of us is shot, Yam goes free. Jesus christ this is a clusterfuck | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:24 ritoky wrote: it's the classic empty promises vs excuses for not playing comparison. I know, it's really shit. Okay, so my vote is staying on Yam, for now. Under the following conditions, I will shennannie onto Hopeless1: 1. Yamato77 comes back and votes so he's not getting modkilled 2. We have enough people who have committed (write ##shennanigan or similar in the thread so I know you're in) that it will actually happen. ##shennanigan If we don't hit 5, I don't have to worry about the various complications of this. If we do hit 5, we'll discuss what to do then. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:25 Onegu wrote: i am sick. Lynch hopeless this is my strong gut read. Like he came back made one post voted Yamato mentions me testing him and then is gone again. You admittedly haven't even read the thread. The only reason this shenannigan isn't onto you is that Hopeless1 is, amazingly, less active than you are AGH AGHGHHH this is all so awful | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:26 Xatalos wrote: Yeah that'd be a nasty situation >.> And makes it all the more likely for yamato to be scum since there's only barely enough support to get him lynched, whereas usually town get lynched more easily (like Slam did). Yeah, yeah. damn it alright I'll put off deciding on shenanigans until we are sure we have enough people who might be interested | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:26 gumshoe wrote: I could compromise to this / : we would basically remove both primary lurkers at once. Though I don't like the possibility of yam coming back T_T shennannies only happen if Yamato doesn't come back. Let me be clear: If he comes back, we lynch him | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:28 Xatalos wrote: I think it might be too risky after all... Considering yamato could just vote like 10 seconds before the deadline and we'd be screwed then. It would effectively be a scumclaim if he did, we'd just lynch him 100% tomorrow. I suspect even the Yamato lovers would be on board if he pulled that kind of stunt. We should ask them, though, to be sure. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:31 Xatalos wrote: Plus Onegu parked his vote on Hopeless which makes me feel better about Hopeless lol haha yeah also this. | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:31 Xatalos wrote: Maybe Onegu shenanigans after all? I'm in for Onegu shennanigans, but I'm pretty sure most people are not. weigh in if you are | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: at least shennie to GB if yamato does not come back please BH. If yamato does not come back, and ALSO people are not willing to shennie onto Hope1 or 1gu, I vow on my honor as the shenannigan king that I will shenny onto GlowingBear | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:45 gumshoe wrote: This town is too fractured for Shenanies. I want an old fashioned majority and I rather not get super greedy. Hopeless could you get in here? People want to kill you for the sake of efficiency / : and im not entirely sure they're wrong. re: H1; don't hold your breath | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:48 Chromatically wrote: If we hit two mislynches ofc the idea is that at least one would be good in this case, probably yam | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:56 Xatalos wrote: Are you really sure? rayn and yamato could ninjavote GB to take him down I will ninja harder back onto yam if necessary. I have a fast internet connection and a fast computer! I am afraid of this risk but no matter what, Yam dies. this is my promise | ||
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On October 27 2015 06:56 Chromatically wrote: I think my logic here is right? Killing two people today is always worse for town because it's just using one of our later lynches a day early. if we catch scum though isn't that objectively better? Like, right now we're at 8-3 right if we catch scum with 2lynch we got o 7-2, then after nk we're at 6-2 If we don't, we go to 8-2 then 7-2 and there's no promises of not another modkill so we should be on hand. | ||
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##unvote ##vote GlowingBear I AM READY TO SWITCH BACK | ||
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On October 27 2015 07:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: the lynch was terrible in the first place. If you had 100% control of the lynch, you'd have gone for xat right? I haven't actually paid attention to your xat case. linke me to it and I'll comment on it since I respect you | ||
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On October 27 2015 07:05 ritoky wrote: xata, gumdrop, vivax. 2 sentences on why you didn't shennanie; go! I'd be interested to hear this btw given that Yam was being modkilled and had not returned to the thread. were you guys strongrly TRing GB, for example? On October 27 2015 07:07 ritoky wrote: if gb flips mafia, 1 of vivax, xata, and gumdrop is mafia 100% of the time. I like the basic concept, but don't draw associative tells between unflipped players. IF you think GB is scum, focus on explaining why he is scum first. | ||
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On October 27 2015 07:11 ritoky wrote: i mean, didn't me and chrom do that all fucking day long? not much else to say beyond what has been said. Ah, sorry, didn't mean to imply you didn't push GB, just making a statement in general about associate tells between unflipped players | ||
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On October 27 2015 07:14 Xatalos wrote: Yeah I would have most likely joined on Onegu or even Hopeless at the last seconds AH MAN I WAS TRYING TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN ok, tomrrow if I live when we are shenannying it will be one HUNDO percent clear what's going on | ||
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On October 28 2015 03:35 Xatalos wrote: So I guess if you assume that the scumteam is something like GB/Onegu/Hopeless, then it could make sense... But even then GB preferred to lynch Onegu/Hopeless yesterday...? I could see this kind of thing as a reverse-bus, though. Let's say GB thinks he's getting lynched yesterday, and wants to set up his team to win anyways. He figures there's no way to save himself, but he can push suspicion away from his teammates by trying to push them. I don't want to speculate on associative tells between unflipped players, but I'm just saying, there's noething here that inherently makes GB/1Gu/H1 impossible, especially since: Final Day 2 Quality Control yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, raynpelikoneet (1): Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet, Hopeless1der (1): Onegu (0): Not Voting (1): yamato77 We have discovered yamato77 to be a chocolate saboteur! Day 2 has ended. Both 1Gu and H1 were in a position where their swapping could have an impact on the outcome of the lynch. 1Gu of course could even things out, but H1 in particular stayed on Yam77 even when the modkill was imminent and GB shennanies were a good choice. Not saying everyone on yam77 who didn't shennannie is scum, but we can't rule out a GB/1G/H1 scumteam based on association. 1Gu especially likely to be bad for not being on a main wagon one way or another. What's he doing voting H1? | ||
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On October 28 2015 04:19 GlowingBear wrote: BH one question: am I mafia? You have a 40%+ chance of being mafia. I'd rather kill... let's say, 1Gu, than you. H1 isn't that bad of a choice either, though apparently this is his meta as town. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=117#2331 accurately sums up my thoughts on you yesterday and things haven't significantly changed with the yam flip. At the time, I thought you were scummy but also NOT the best lynch. The reason for my shennannies onto you at the end of D1 wasn't that you were scummier than Yam, but rather, Yam was dying anyways due to modkill, and nobody wanted to put a 2nd lynch on H1 or 1Gu. You were, and are, an acceptable lynch option. If you're trying to decide whether to NK me or not based on who I'm pushing tomorrow, well, I will not be pushing you as my primary lynch target tomorrow (pending the VCA and stuff I'm doing now), but you're still a good lynch. | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:01 Xatalos wrote: Oh yeah I missed this post. I wondered a bit where GB found his quote. Is the "calling a shitstorm" referring to calling rayn scum? Well, since we have one "free" mislynch left, I guess GB wouldn't be the WORST option. At least lynching him would solve a lot of mysteries about how the game has went. Unlike say, lynching hopeless. But lynching rayn would be equally informative and more likely to hit scum IMO... Then there's Onegu too.... We should try to avoid thinking about "free" mislynches, though. If we do mislynch tomorrow, although we don't lose, we'll be going into 4-3 LYLO, which is a pretty tall order in general. We should try to do our best to shoot for the best chance of lynching scum tomorrow, rather than speculating on what lynch will give us the most information-- unless we really really don't think we have a good chance of lynching scum. | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:10 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, it's certainly better to hit scum information-wise as well... What I meant that it's kind of a coin-flip to lynch Hopeless and he wouldn't provide too much information with his flip.... Well, I guess that would depend on how the wagons form too. Now that I mentioned, I should recheck hopeless. I totally get what you're getting at here. I think Onegu has been a bit more active, and I also have a stronger scumread on him. He is a better choice out of the two of them and more likely to flip scum. | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:14 Xatalos wrote: Hmmm.... I went through hopeless's filter and actually liked it surprisingly much >.> I guess it felt like there isn't any clear agenda in there? Like he was just posting whatever came to his mind? The inactivity is concerning but other than that I don't really see any great reason to think he's scum.... In general I've found 1Gu's posting significantly more problematic (as well as his various dodges, especially near the end of D2-- look where his vote is). What are your thoughts on 1Gu? | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:27 gumshoe wrote: I think the argument against Hopeless could be put best by Bh. With not even two pages of filter, theres no way that Hopeless looks more scummy than anyone here / : I dont doubt that hes very careful about not slipping up, the whole notion that scum will deliver themselves to us on a platter is something I have fought with people from mah very first game. Scum are fairly capable of not looking all that scummy / : If Hopeless is town, than that means that means at least 2 scum have outclassed town enough that if even we play optimally we lose almost no matter what. Shitty, yes. But I'm not gonna vote for someone I am confident is town just because the actual town fucked up that bad / : Yeah, I get what you're saying. Bleh, what a damn pain, analyzing alignments of lurkers | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:34 Xatalos wrote: Plus I don't think hopeless's town meta is to be active/contributive regardless.. From what I remember? BH? This is accurate from what i remember but I hsven't researchedd it this gsme | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:50 Xatalos wrote: Maybe Onegu is the safe bet In terms of "maximum chance to get a scummer tomorrow" Onegu is up there I recall people saying "one of yam+gb must be scum"-- I'll go looking for the reasoning why-- do you remember why people were on about this? | ||
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On October 28 2015 05:57 Vivax wrote: When I actually read BH's posts I gotta laugh sometimes ilu vivax tell me about your dream | ||
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On October 28 2015 06:06 Vivax wrote: BH rayn never was an actual scumread of yours right? I currently have a townread on rayn, based on his interaction with the hosts. He's also been gradually improving since the end of D1. I see no reason to lynch him during D3, and would be hardpressed to imagine an argument that would convince me. Admittedly, his super lackluster performance N1 and D2 are, well, super lackluster: but I know rayn and I know his rage. I'm pretty sure his anger was genuine, given that he directed it at the host and the fact that it was dripping with biting sarcasm. I can go more in-depth on this if you'd like to discuss rayn. On October 28 2015 06:01 gumshoe wrote: It was my argument. They can both be town, but they cannot both be scum (because Yamato basically went after Gb with MAXIMUM kill aggresion, ie directing marv BACK onto Gb.) It has no bearing now / : they could both be town. The application of it was that if Yam is scum, gb is town, and vice versa. Therefore you should lynch the one your most certain is scum to protect the townie between them, which if one is scum, then the other is town and needs protecting. Doesnt do much atm T_T OK, we can ignore this then. Doesn't mean GB is town but this is not a reason to automaticlaly think him scum. On October 28 2015 05:38 Chromatically wrote: I'm really low on time so I'm just going to do some quick thoughts on Onegu. Onegu clearly hasn't done much this game. Of course, he's not interested in finding mafia, hasn't shown a townie thought process, etc. His reads are on a totally different page then mine (ritoky and BH as mafia?). A lot of his posts feel like they're just throwing suspicion somewhere: Like this post felt really strange to me, didn't say anything about ritoky's alignment but just vaguely threw suspicion on me and him. He was extremely confident (unjustified) in townreads on rayn (during that conversation N1). He voted rayn after saying he's 99% town (although apparently he could have done it as town). I explained this earlier too, "Xata is making zero sense here" did not fit into the conversation at all because Xatalos hadn't posted anything that Onegu disagreed with for a while. It seems like Onegu wanted to vote Xatalos to be consistent with what he was saying and just threw an explanation on there without it making much sense. Out of time so I know these aren't very well explained, but I think most people get the idea by this point. Yeah, there's a lot of strageness surrounding Onegu. I'm actually thinking the most concerning thing (beyond of course, the actual lack of activity) surrounding his stuff D2 is this: On October 28 2015 02:52 Onegu wrote: I didnt waste my vote. People said they were down to shennanie on to him. BH and ritoky. If some more people wanted to go I wanted them to be able and lynch scum. I am really kinda feeling Xata is scum with hopeless now. Like he was all ok yeah we can lynch him, then no we have to be safe. He really waffled on it and felt really weird to me. And yes me and hopeless are both scum, that makes perfect sense... Basically, Onegu says he was ready for shennannies and wanted to enable that, right? But he goes away a few hours before the lynch: On October 27 2015 00:26 Onegu wrote: Ill be back in a bit. Then comes back right before deadline, and here are his posts: On October 27 2015 05:38 Onegu wrote: I am here On October 27 2015 05:54 Onegu wrote: Bleh to many pages to read if it is just all going to be rayn being crazy... On October 27 2015 05:56 Onegu wrote: Getting some medicine I dont feel well. We should lynch hopeless. BH go back. Other people join. On October 27 2015 05:58 Onegu wrote: Bleh AND THEN HE'S GONE. When we need him for actual shenannies, Onegu just straight up disappears. It's not like he was actually encouraging shenannies or whatever. He just wanted to look like it, parked his vote on H1 (whether or not H1 is town, again, this isn't the point at hand) and then he fuckin peaces out. Onegu wasn't enabling shenannies-- by putting his vot eon H1, he actually STOPPED shenannnies. We needed him on GB, or, alternatively, whoever else we shenannies on (I guess we were considering him so 1Gu wouldn't want to help us with that) but the point is, this isn't someone shennannying, it's justifying a non-vote. Now, FWIW: Onegu on his own wouldn't have changed things. This is a fair and true statement. He'd have tied it up. But he didn't need to mention that the thread (I think like a few new pages, maybe 10) was too long to read. I was there, trying to direct people. I tried to engage with the man, and I'm not the only one. Everyone had questions for Onegu. He saw the wagons, plopped down effectively a non-vote and peaced. If we compare this with H1 (who at least had a vote in play) or GB (who was trying to not get lynched) I don't really see the motivation for this. I also take personal offense at a guy like 1Gu trying to hide behind My SHENNANNIES as though it gives him a right to opt out of the town discourse | ||
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Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Going with a GB/1Gu/H1 scumteam (the "naive" scumteam, the three most scummy players in the game), things would have looked like: + Show Spoiler [sepculation] + Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu What immediately stands out to me about this theory is that it would mean 2 of 3 votes on rayn were by scum. Perhaps hoping to come out of it smelling like roses (and GB does stay on rayn the next day) after the slam flip. During Day 2, GB and 1Gu are on off-wagons, but both actually have completely the ability to kill yamato over GB. As it stands, they don’t look implicated by the Yamato flip. There’s nothing inherently broken about this possibility. Not saying this makes this scum; but we can’t rule them out based on association alone. The scumteam could work. I think in general, looking at the first VCA highlighting: Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu The thing we notice most is how unlikely it is scum was forced to have a hand in the slam wagon. Even if 3 of the 5 votes on slam are scum, they could ave dispersed elsewhere and still avoided a no-lynch during D1. During D2, you had several close wagons and almost certainly then, by definition, some kind of scum meddling in the wagon outcome. Chosing to disperse rather than consolidate IT hink explains the Onegu vote quite nicely. If GB is really town, scum wouldn’t care at all— they’d all be voting like Onegu (though GB’s vote makes no sense regardless of his alignment) and raynpelikoneet. Actually, rayn’s vote raises my suspicion of him here, just because looking at how close things got, I Can’t help but think rayn on GB (given that he was hard TRing yaamto) could have made the difference! So, in summary GB’s vote on rayn doesn’t mean anything. I think Rayn and Onegu both deserve more scrutiny (Though Onegu is the only guy I’m scumreading out of the two of them) for what went down at the end of D2. Lastly, VCA does not RULE OUT a GB/H1/1G team— though of course I will not rule in teams as groups. You don’t draw associative tells between unflipped players. | ||
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On October 28 2015 06:21 Vivax wrote: Cmon man you type up 6 lines and in none of them is an answer to what I wanted to know. Can you please tell me if you ever scumread rayn in this game? Yes. I scumreaded him quite strongly after the end of D1. I even voted him, and that vote was serious. I was irked by his argument with the hosts, and it took me somet ime to wrap my head around it and realize he was town. | ||
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On October 28 2015 07:27 gumshoe wrote: this is like, absolutely beyond me. Lynching rayn here is insane. yeah, many people were scumreading rayn and, on top of that, he was contributing almost nothing (and in fact anti-contributing whenever he was having a shitfest/ rage fury). I am loathe to speculate on NK outcomes, because of all the ways it can be WIFOM (And it often literally is) but, does perhaps this mean scum is happy with the current arrangment of lynches? I can't imagine any reason to silence rayn, except perhaps to make town operate a bit more smoothly on its current path | ||
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On October 28 2015 07:34 gumshoe wrote: "you know we should kill bh, but fuck it, I really dont wanna to play another day with Rayn" Is the only explanation that makes sense to me... I cant believe rayns bitchy play came full circle and actually HELPED town. He was was such a bother for both factions that he wound up functioning as an honorary BG for Bh...wow, just wow. Like, in a way, I'm really happy rayn is dead, even if it means one more townie is gone. it means we don't have to listen to him any more. He somehow took a bullet! Thanks, rayn. Thanks for being dead. Even better, he can't respond here when I say: rayn, it's so good that you're dead. so good. hue | ||
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On October 28 2015 08:00 Xatalos wrote: Well I guess they either just wanted to improve their own enjoyment of the game... Or maybe there's some deeper reason? Like GB/ritoky are scum or scum wanted to frame them? Dunno... A theory bouncing around in my head is scum saw me gearing up to lynch 1Gu and thought "good". I don't feel like I should abandon my legitimate scumread just based on that, though. | ||
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On October 28 2015 08:04 gumshoe wrote: I Know 0_0 its hard not to overthink this. I think the onegu, gb, hopeless train was pretty set last night. If scum liked that lineup, they wouldnt have done anything to rock the boat is my guess. This shot makes me think scum wanted us to read into it and alter course? maybe? Unless the reasoning was the trolly one I mentioned earlier XD Ironically I feel a bit better about the direction town is taking, so barring something crazy, my vote is safe where it is. Yeah so like there's two theories here. Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn. Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn. I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads. | ||
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On October 28 2015 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I wonder... rayn's death kind of implicates GB though... Since he was one of the pro-Onegu, anti-GB faction... :/ Eh, that's true i suppose, but we probably shouldn't read THAT much into it? It's not like rayn was gonna singlehandedly keep Onegu alive On October 28 2015 08:19 Xatalos wrote: GB is also a more controversial figure... So there could be more information from him... Assuming that whoever we lynch flips scum, I think 1Gu is a better choice since people have talked about him at least a decent amount and we need to deal with him regardless. If whoever we lynch flips town, and we need to go into the next day with a 100% scum lynch, it might be better to go for GB. That aside, though, we should just try to maximize our chance of flipping a scum player imo | ||
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On October 28 2015 08:38 Xatalos wrote: Hm... I think there could potentially still be scum within ritoky/Chromatically too. What do you think, BH? I think I'll go to sleep soon though.. Feels like it would be a huge (unnecessary) risk to lynch one of them today. Off the bat I don't think we should be lynching into ritok/chromatically, but based on the NK and stuff in general I need to re-evaluate. Once I'm back at a computer I'll crank out analysis on the triumvirate and anyone else I find suspicious. | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:11 gumshoe wrote: Kk lets play a game, avoid all the meta, all the bullshit, lets talk about what the one thing the Rayn kill actually tells us. You get two obvious hints for this riddle 1) baring a modkill scum NEEDS two mislynches to win. 2) scum have not yet forfeited. So what is the one thing the Rayn kill actually tells us? Super townie points to the one who figures it out : D bonus question, how does the answer help us find scum : D only one scum in GB/1G/H1 | ||
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Like, the obvious answer is "scum wants us to just lynch through GB/1G/H1" but a) that doesn't mean 1G is actually town b) surely scum would know I would figure out "scum just wants us to lynch thoruhg Gb/1G/H1" because of how STRANGE the rayn kill is. They must have known this conversation would happen, right? | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:27 gumshoe wrote: Your thinking about this wrong. It doesn't matter who would kill rayn, the kill is nonsensical, it was unoptimal no matter how you look at it, as he was dividing town through sheer precence. The real question is, what is the one fact that the rayn kill DOES tells us about scum? Regardless of who it is that killed rayn, what do we now know about them? ...they hate rayn? | ||
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...they want to silence rayn? come on man the socratic method sucks | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:31 ritoky wrote: i very real portion of me wants to lynch xata and not read an ounce of his defense. might just be the spite inside me. Tell me about Xata, then, cause i've had him in the "he's probably town, ignore him" box in my head for the past 72 hours. Or link me to your case if you're so convinced. | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:32 gumshoe wrote: Super Nope, ill give it up in five minutes XD see if you can get it before then. OH OKAY ONE META LEVEL DEEPER Rayn was super wrong about everything, and they want us to THINK they wanted us to silence rayn, and they assumed we'd read and follow his reads, which are all wrong and would lead to disaster! | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:33 ritoky wrote: well if the answer isn't "content with state of game" or "kill the people who they are scared of solving vs universal TRs" or "our PoE list is probably wrong" then idk what conclusion you can make. maybe that i am sexy irl. that's always a satisfactory conclusion FWIW you are sexy irl | ||
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On October 08 2015 16:30 Rels wrote: 7. No lynch is not allowed. Self voting is allowed. Mafia not using their shot is allowed. NVM mafia can hold fire | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:35 gumshoe wrote: remember the "beyond the meta, beyond the bullshit " line ? so nope agian : P one more try each as of this post. I dunno dude all my explanations sounded Gr9 to me Gr9 is like Gr8 but it's one more because of how good it is | ||
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On October 28 2015 09:39 gumshoe wrote: and I am not asking for thier specific reason, just the truth that naturally goes along with thier shot They shot rayn, which obviously means what? so.... rayn was... not gonna be mislynched? | ||
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so, wait, I don't understand. clearly you're not saying rayn was scum and therefore lynching him wouldn't be a mislynch. You're saying... what, that he was unlikely to get lynched? That was true of several people, especially you and me, but basically anyone but GB H1 and 1G. | ||
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Like I really don't see how this is a useful piece of information, or what this deduction is. | ||
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On October 28 2015 12:29 gumshoe wrote: Do you guys really not get the whole Rayn thing? rayn dying means scum felt they couldn't mislynch him. scum not bieng able to mislynch him means at least 2 out of three scum are town reading him and to turn around and lynch him for no real reason would be super scummy of them. Is this really such a stretch? Basically my argument is that the majority of the scum team couldn't lynch rayn cause they were town reading rayn. No it's not game ending, but it is useful information to cross refrence with what you all already know. Def not "gumshoe dafack are you doing" worthy 0_0 I don't think you're necessarily wrong but imagine this "scum shot rayn because of the way scum votes were on him-- they realized that it wouldn't be possible to lynch him without at least 3 townies changing from townreading rayn to scumreading him. since this was impossible, there was no way for him to get lynched." This is a good summary of your thoughts, right? well this describes pertty well a situation with all scum not voting rayn, but it ALSO describes a situation where scum are voting rayn and literally all townies think he's town. Like, AND AGAIN, I'm not saying this is true, just pointing out the gap in your logic, it's totally possible that someone gets shot and before he was shot scum were trying to push him and town was resisting. In any case, all of it doesn't matter, it's not a point in 1G's defense that your explanation is quite strange. Like, think about it this way-- the explanation could explain any distribution of scum. In any case, lynch 1G | ||
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On October 28 2015 13:13 ritoky wrote: so you think onegu is actively doing more scummy things than gb? okay, please enlighten me. what are they? sigh. it's yam/gb again basically in terms of activity making people seem scummier tbh | ||
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On October 28 2015 13:22 ritoky wrote: if that's the case 100% of people should be on hopeless instead. i refuse to accept this answer from anyone. if you're judging based on activity then lynch hopeless 0 questions asked. but don't sit here and tell me "onegu scummier than gb" and then give me activity bs. i'm like pretty sure the scumteam is gb 1g h1 so i'm not too worried, but tell you what, at the end of the day, if my vote makes the difference, I'll be here. | ||
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after dinner | ||
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On October 28 2015 13:36 gumshoe wrote: sure lynch hopeless, I dont particularly care about the order man, as I doubt there arent 2-3 scum between them and its unlikely well get through the game without lynching all of them. Theres a good chance were arguing over nothing here but if you really really want to lynch gb or hopeless over 1gu, be my guest. I dont really wanna spend time arguing over what smells worse between trash and used condoms /  i would like to think its the condoms)My lynches for the next 4 days are basically locked so none of this really matters in my opinion. I'm just going for the person I feel are the scummiest atm, but if I had something REALLY concrete I woulda brought it up by now. Also My lynches are based way more on who I consider town to be honest (there are 4 people that I just flat out dont plan on lynching this game, barring something crazy), as my scum reading is historically kinda shit / : yeah at some level I feel like we're arguing gray vs grey here, we're probably lynching all three anyways | ||
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On October 28 2015 13:47 ritoky wrote: that's a really big reason i want to know GB's alignment...other than i think he is mafia. BH tried to shennanie off of yamato onto GB and literally no one would follow. that becomes very telling if GB is mafia. Hmmm, actually, this is a fair argument in favor of changing the order. If we really do plan on lynching all three, but are worried one of 1G / H1 are town (or both) and feel good about GB as mafia... it could explain the reluctance to swap. It's an associative tell about an unflipped player, but the analysis intrinsically offers a solution: flip the player. | ||
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On October 28 2015 14:00 Chromatically wrote: Sorry, can you explain this to me? I don't understand this. yeah... | ||
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On October 28 2015 14:03 ritoky wrote: BH tried to shennanie from yamato to GB. all 3 were here, all 3 refused to follow for different reasons. if it was a shennanie off town onto mafia, i would be floored if 1 isn't mafia with GB. ah, yeah, that makes sense I suppose dinner now bye | ||
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On October 29 2015 02:41 Xatalos wrote: One crazy idea I had is that the scumteam could be something like Onegu/GB/ritoky since they've all had these hipster suspicions in the last 24 hours - maybe feeling pressed into a corner and needing to redirect attention? Could also explain the rayn NK as trying to shake things up, and rayn's scumread on GB/ritoky.... But there are some problems with that team. For example, ritoky eagerly jumped on Onegu D1, and again voted for GB D2. GB has also pushed Onegu lately. Could be bussing I guess, but especially ritoky is a bit hard to explain. Even if that's the case, though, I don't think that's a reason to change from our current lynch target. We don't even have to have weird ideas to want to lynch into the GB/1G/H1 group | ||
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On October 29 2015 02:54 Xatalos wrote: True, I suppose... In any case, there should be at least one scum within GB/Onegu, so I'm not really sad whichever gets picked today. Hopefully they're both scum or we hit the correct one first. Yeah that's basically how I'm feeling as well. | ||
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On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote: Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky. I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think? I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value. I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn: In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld. “That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.” “But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.” “Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.” --Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96. | ||
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On October 30 2015 02:46 gumshoe wrote: why didn't you let onegu explain T_T it was a twap. given onegu's words per day it would take another 72 hours to hear back from him | ||
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On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote: He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu. Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team". yeah honestly nothing that's happened has made me think "lynching GB 1G H1 is bad" it's all consistent | ||
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On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote: Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility. heres the frame my argument provides. Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him. There are two possibilities. 1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there. 2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically) three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him. Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get. Does that make sense? Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter. Yeah, I get what you're getting at, I just don't really think it's the most relevant to figuring out the alignments. In any case, we're in agreement, so it's all good. On October 29 2015 03:45 gumshoe wrote: I seriously do, your awesome, thanks for inviting me back to mafia btw you've been a joy to play with this game : D Thanks! I've enjoyed playing with you as well. I forgot what fun we've had. I'm pretty sure we've finally gotten this wrapped up, too, so that's great. This is actually my first game I've played in quite a while. I've been on a hosting spree mostly | ||
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On October 30 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote: BH what do you think of what rayn said about you, I think you never talked about it. That you just flail around lynches without wanting one, basically. What do I think of that? I don't. I think it's pretty clear I'm town and I haven't felt any need to defend myself this game. When I spend time, I typically spend it analyzing, writing cases, and hunting scum. If you have particular questions for me, I'm glad to answer them, but I think my work speaks for itself. It IS true that I tried shennannies two days in a row, and both times failed-- but I don't think that is scummy at all. Could I have been more effective about shennannies? Sure, I think if I had been a bit more clear on organizing the D2 shennannies, it might have worked. Looking back on it, it seems we actually had a majority of people wanting to lynch 1G over Yam. At the time, though, it was hard to tell that based on facts on the ground, and many people stubbornly refused to move off of yam (which is the prerogative). The fact my shennanigans didn't work out isn't because I'm scum, it's just there wasn't the will in the town for them to happen. As it is today, I see no reason for shennannies so you won't see any from me. I think we've got this game wrapped up and am not worried; either wagon is fine. | ||
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On October 30 2015 04:21 Xatalos wrote: Currently GB is getting lynched... Can't really convince myself to push Onegu over GB. In any case, both probably need to be lynched. I can even move my vote to GB if there's some demand/reasoning for that order? Eh, i'm in the same boat. Either is fine, we need to lynch both of them anyways | ||
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On October 30 2015 05:00 ritoky wrote: some concerns: people very content, appeal to emotion post (i am sucker for them), why onegu + gb are wagons...makes no sense should be gb + hopeless yay: i wanna be right, i think he's mafia, chroma super town thinks mafia, most likely dunks xata what's wrong with lynching 1gu btw? | ||
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On October 30 2015 05:07 ritoky wrote: i think he is town. have said it multiple times. believe even explained it to you before lol. i just don't see every dead player being wrong about his alignment, and then onegu killing every single person in support of him. doesn't seem like the play. plus those dead people have better reads on him than me and i trust them. plus i have heard no case for why onegu has been ACTIVELY scummy. most of it is PoE/activity based, and by that metric the lynch should be hopeless by a mile. ok this is a fair point about active scumminess. now, although i was WRONG about yam, i did make this point earlier: On October 27 2015 06:01 Blazinghand wrote: Ok, I totally get what you're getting at here. there's an argument to be made, and it is a totally reasonable one, that perhaps all lurkers are town and all active players are mafia, and we should lynch into the most suspicious active players. And in a sense, I think that is not 100% wrong. For example; I think rayn needed an extension and some time to sort out his rage and unwillingness to play. But there are what, 4 lurkers here out of 11 players? It's almost certain that there's at least one mafia in the lurk group, and there are ones like Hopeless1 and Yamato who are literally playing just enough to not ge tmodkilled (remember, this game has no activity requirement). If I were scum this game, I'd just never post and it would be easy. In fact, I feel really certain at least one scum, or maybe all scum, are doing this. And why not? There's a vocal contingent of people (including the lurkers themselves) who do not want to lynch into lurkers We have to think smarter. Normally, lurkers are handled by modkills for failure to meet posting requirements, or cops, or vigilantes, or at the very least some blues make it to LYLO and claim and we have a narrow lynch pool. We have none of those tools this game. People are abusing the ability to lurk, and sure, ti sounds like they have reasons, but there's no reason scum can't just fake reasons. As scum, I would. We need to solve this problem ourselves. We obviously can't lynch every lurker, since doing so is the same as guessing all scum are lurkers (if 2-3 of them are town, we'll run out of lynches and lose probably first). But we can lynch the worst lurker or two, the ones we'll never get a read on, and I'm gambling on one of them being scum. Obviously none of these guys are gonna shot if they're town. What will you do in LYLO when it's all lurkers and scum, or all lurking scum we're refusing ot lynch? We can't have that. Gb will always LOOK worse than Yam because there's a filter to look at. He could have eaisly chosen to never post and he'd be just like Yam, protected by "well, we can't just lynch lurkers, or we'd lose". GB CHOSE TO PLAY. He chose to play the damn game, to try to solve things, even if he's super wrong and dumb, and MAKING THAT CHOICE, that's a town thing. If he's scum, he didn't have to post SHIT. He just had to let the thread implode. He stepped up! HE STEPPED UP. Don't punish that. and if we're talking about scum hunting, it's worth noting that someone who literally never posts (as onegu almost does) will post fewer scummy things than a more active scum player (like GB) REGARDLESS because onegu is physically making fewer posts | ||
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On October 30 2015 05:28 Xatalos wrote: Hm... Magic words? ##Call BH to shenanigans on Onegu I can't actually shennanigan onto onegu, I deeply apologize It is up to you to figure out why this is the case I believe in you Xat | ||
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On October 30 2015 05:35 gumshoe wrote: Like, ritoky how can you not see that 1gu might have shot rayn to bring you over to his side when you literally have gone over to his side because he shot rayn? I laughed out loud at this. This was pretty great | ||
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In any case Onegu coming back and hammering would be hilarious but also surprising given the level of effort that dude has put in and the fact that you're probably both scum together | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:02 GlowingBear wrote: I'm okay BH but I'm dead today.Yes it means both can't be scum. Tell me. If you have two scum buddies up for the lynch, you wouldn't try to derail town to a mislynch? I would NEVER be quiet. And this day was too quiet with these two wagons. Which means both can't be scum. PLUS I am proposing a lynch on Onegu since day1. This simply reinforces that we aren't on a team together. Well obviously if *I*, BLAZINGHAND, had two scum buddies up for a lynch, I'd raise a huge shitstorm, but do you think H1 and 1G are the kind of players who are raising shitstorms this game? ಠ_ಠ In any case if you want I'll say a piece on your behalf to whoever's voting you right now since I think we should lynch 1G first the speech is the same as the one I made in defense of you against Yam: On October 27 2015 06:01 Blazinghand wrote: Ok, I totally get what you're getting at here. there's an argument to be made, and it is a totally reasonable one, that perhaps all lurkers are town and all active players are mafia, and we should lynch into the most suspicious active players. And in a sense, I think that is not 100% wrong. For example; I think rayn needed an extension and some time to sort out his rage and unwillingness to play. But there are what, 4 lurkers here out of 11 players? It's almost certain that there's at least one mafia in the lurk group, and there are ones like Hopeless1 and Yamato who are literally playing just enough to not ge tmodkilled (remember, this game has no activity requirement). If I were scum this game, I'd just never post and it would be easy. In fact, I feel really certain at least one scum, or maybe all scum, are doing this. And why not? There's a vocal contingent of people (including the lurkers themselves) who do not want to lynch into lurkers We have to think smarter. Normally, lurkers are handled by modkills for failure to meet posting requirements, or cops, or vigilantes, or at the very least some blues make it to LYLO and claim and we have a narrow lynch pool. We have none of those tools this game. People are abusing the ability to lurk, and sure, ti sounds like they have reasons, but there's no reason scum can't just fake reasons. As scum, I would. We need to solve this problem ourselves. We obviously can't lynch every lurker, since doing so is the same as guessing all scum are lurkers (if 2-3 of them are town, we'll run out of lynches and lose probably first). But we can lynch the worst lurker or two, the ones we'll never get a read on, and I'm gambling on one of them being scum. Obviously none of these guys are gonna shot if they're town. What will you do in LYLO when it's all lurkers and scum, or all lurking scum we're refusing ot lynch? We can't have that. Gb will always LOOK worse than Yam because there's a filter to look at. He could have eaisly chosen to never post and he'd be just like Yam, protected by "well, we can't just lynch lurkers, or we'd lose". GB CHOSE TO PLAY. He chose to play the damn game, to try to solve things, even if he's super wrong and dumb, and MAKING THAT CHOICE, that's a town thing. If he's scum, he didn't have to post SHIT. He just had to let the thread implode. He stepped up! HE STEPPED UP. Don't punish that. It still applies. Doesn't make you town; but it still applies. This is why we lynch 1G first | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:05 GlowingBear wrote: No you're not, and you're mafia. If for some reason I miraculously survibe and Onegu flips red, I hope you are prepared. haha what?? are you serious gumshoe is top town second only to me. he's been solving this game and working with people, writing cases and analyzing in a SUPER on point way (except with that weird rayn kill rationalization) all game. no way anyone can keep that up as scum | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:09 GlowingBear wrote: Did you read what I've brought on him? not really, I don't feel like lynching him (and there's no way it's happening today). Furthemore, you're probably scum. I've mostly been interested in getting 1gu lynched but I'll take a look at it overnight and make thoughts if you really care. That's a promise. I can't even get how he'd be scum and do all this good work, but maybe your case explains that. It's certainly no loss to me to do some extra reading, I think we got this wrapped up like a chicken burrito | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:13 GlowingBear wrote: I will write it now. It will have a big sign written PLEASE READ. That's the only post I need you to read from me. Please promise you'll read. sure | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:14 ritoky wrote: how yolo do i feel? let's hold it together man we got two wagons on two scum I think all we need to do is not fuck this up ye? | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:16 ritoky wrote: i think there is no way it is a team of those 3. there's always a sneakster mafia. onegu/hopeless/x most likely if onegu gb/x/x most likely if gb. there's gotta be at least 2 scum in there though. who's scum if it's not AT LEAST 2 of those 3? | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:17 gumshoe wrote: I was wrong yesterday ) : so today's choice is yours, but TRY to make sense of what hopeless is doing is hes scum, it doesn't unless hes trying to protect 1gu / : maybe it doesnt matter and 1gu and gb are both scum, but based of hopeless's actions we should definitely be voting onegu. I mean, maybe, right? But I don't want to draw associative tells right now. Analyzing H1's actions, or things like the NK, imo, just lead us astray. If we lynch into H1/1G/GB we're gonna be fine. It's a classic mistake in situations like this to overthink things, screw up, and end up aimless and lost or lynch a bunch of townies or something. Like, I REALLY htink we can afford to NOT lynch these guys | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:20 ritoky wrote: with GB? at least 1 of xata/gumdrop/vivax...maybe 2 of them? dunno. not me, can't be chroma, wouldn't be onegu/hopeless....can't really be BH cuz tried to shennanie GB. so yeah if GB then 2 of gumdrop/xata/vivax. Vivax I could see, maybe, but Gumdshoe? Xatalos? >.> In general yeah I'm suspicious of people who didn't shenannie away from yam but i'm way more suspicoius of 1G and H1 for not playing the game ugh | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:20 ritoky wrote: with GB? at least 1 of xata/gumdrop/vivax...maybe 2 of them? dunno. not me, can't be chroma, wouldn't be onegu/hopeless....can't really be BH cuz tried to shennanie GB. so yeah if GB then 2 of gumdrop/xata/vivax. also why would this cause you to shenannie away from GB/1G/H1. you must think there is scum in there right | ||
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vote 1G if you want but don't trust GB, he and 1G are both scum | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:25 gumshoe wrote: from ritokys perspective, it would have to be xata vivax, cmon ritoky, why isnt hopeless voting onegu? If hopeless is the only scum between them, why not look more consistent and vote for the guy whose trying to kill you instead of doubling back on a guy you were null at best on, and town read at several points in the game? If hopeless is scum with gb, why vote him when he can just vote for onegu? the guy trying to kill him? In fact, why draw attention to himself with such a shitty vote for no reason?(might have resulted in his own lynch)? The only way hopeless DOESNT vote for onegu, and compromises himself in such a fashion is to protect his scum buddy, who has been bussing hopeless all this time to create some distance If hopeless is town, then hope is actually lost, and hes also insane for not voting onegu ) : cmon ritoky, yah got dis It's also worth noting that Onegu is currently trashing his vote by voting a non-wagon honestly the level of play of these guys is so bad, we just need to get rid of them | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:27 Xatalos wrote: The situation is hopeless :/ I THINK ITS FINE ITS FINE GUYS | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:28 ritoky wrote: that's an argument for day 1....or if you're arguing policy lynch them every game until they pick it up. not for the terrible situation we're in... Honestly I think we're in a great situation. I really do. A good number of players have distinguished themselves with good or decent town play and we have a lynch pool of mafia with 1 flailing guy and 2 lurkers. I think we just kill these guys and win the game. really. | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:29 gumshoe wrote: I know right? Its what I've been thinking all this time ) : though I've avoided saying that to Ritoky cause thats the kind of thing that would set a giant killer townie off "WHAT you think I cant win this game? NAY, I shall destroy these magical mobsters!" hahaha, I know what you're saying. Really though I think everyone needs to just stop freaking out. We stay the course. We lynch these guys, they flip scum, then afterwards we brag in post-game about how huge our-epeens are | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:31 ritoky wrote: this level of contentment being so widespread makes me think if we just kill these 3 town will lose the game...but maybe i am too tinfoil for my own good. i do suck as town. Ok but 1G and H1, as scum, would yes be discontent but they're basically non-posters. And GB is CLEARLY super discontent. it's not "too easy" to lynch 1G. Let me FUCKING tell you, I have been trying to lynch this guy or shennannie onto this guy literally ALL GAME. GB has been in people's crosshairs ALL GAME. these two wagons are both culminations of like, 144+ hours of analysis. If we were gonna shenanny out of 1G/H1/GB, I cant imagine it going well. who would we even lynch? who could you justify as better? And it's not liek 1G and H1 are gonna come into the thread and help or something, or prove themselves townie. Also: they're scum. we should lynch them | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:37 Xatalos wrote: Well if gumshoe ends up being scum, he really deserves a nomination for best plays of 2015 and the win :D Don't pay attention to this but if 1G flips scum: GB and 1G are scum and Gummie is town, GB trying to cast suspicion on Gummie for some reaosn Of course this is all unflipped association that should not be paid attention to | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:39 Blazinghand wrote: Don't pay attention to this but if 1G flips scum: GB and 1G are scum and Gummie is town, GB trying to cast suspicion on Gummie for some reaosn Of course this is all unflipped association that should not be paid attention to actually that post is basically a scumclaim by GB. not that it matters; 1G is the better lynch | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:39 Chromatically wrote: I'm here now, stay the course preferably on GB because there's 1 billion reasons in the thread why (marv and rayn both thought he was mafia too) but I would only be a little annoyed if we lynched Onegu instead. how do marv and rayn mean we should lynch GB over 1G? | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:41 Chromatically wrote: rayn thought Onegu was town and GB was mafia, marv thought GB was more mafia than Onegu before he stopped playing So the theory here is that mafia shots were a straightforward attempt to keep 1G alive over GB? Isn't it possible that both 1G and GB are scum? | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:42 GlowingBear wrote: The problem is: I'm talking about flipped association. Care to read what I asked you to read? Point out what is wrong on what I've brought. yeah yeah chill out bro we're lynching 1G today anyways. Almost certainly he's gonna flip scum, and then you're gonna make some kind of asslike push on Gumshoe in an attempt to "look townie", then we lynch you and H1 and win the game | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:43 Vivax wrote: Ritoky feels something for GB's puppy eyes 1 hour before lynch It really is good that he voted for 1G, even if his reasons were bad. | ||
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It's fine. the lack of resistance is FINE. 1G is scum, and he's lurking, and he's not putting up even a token fight. This is fine. He's scum. just relax | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:45 Chromatically wrote: W/E I guess it doesn't really matter since I'm pretty sure they're both mafia, it's just annoying since people haven't been convinced on GB for 2 days now. If Onegu somehow flips town though I'll be upset. I think GB is scum! I'm fine lynching him too, but I think 1G is more likely to flip scum. We'll get GB tomorrow, I promise | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:46 GlowingBear wrote: No, I want you to comment my case in details. Stop dismissing it. Your case is dumb cause gumshoe is town. "1) Gumshoe started strong townreading me when I was under heavy suspicions. He took every piece of evidence he could find to call me town. Then, today, he decided to vote me. His excuse was "I had to go" because all of his townies were suspecting me and he couldn't waste another day of discussion. The problem here is: he was also scumreading Onegu way before and his townreads were putting ME and ONEGU as obvious scum partners. If he thought I was town before, wouldn't it be better if he asked his townreads to vote me since, well, THEY WERE ALL SCUMREADING ONEGU AND ONEGU WAS ALREADY A COUNTER WAGON? This makes no sense under a town perspective. If I have someone I'm at least not sure is town or mafia and if I have someone that I am scumreading since way before, who would I vote? Obviously the scum read. The excuse that his townreads were scumreading me and that they couldn't waste more discussion on me is bullshit because his townreads were also scumreading Onegu and whoever survives from the team they've made will also have to be discussed on later days. It simply doesn't make sense. Gumshoe townreading you at the start of the game and scumreading you now isn't strange; I did the same thing. You're scum, you jsut weren't obvious scum during the start. 2) When I've confronted gumshoe, he decided to respond it with an UNVOTE. WITH. AN. UNVOTE. Let me tell you again. His townreads had me and onegu as mafia. He decided to vote me who he thought was town. When I confront him, he gets convinced I shouldn't be voted. But instead of going against Onegu, he UNVOTES without voting HIS OWN SCUMREAD which is SHARED WITH HIS TOWNREADS. WHY? I did osmething similar about rayn (I guess) when he was raging, it made sense to me to vote him, then I unvote. I think I voted someone else later, but being surprised by something is reason enough to unvote. 3) Then he decides to vote me because he didn't like my tone. This guy is simply saying that after ALL THE EVIDENCE, after ALL THE POSTS HE QUOTED FROM ME to call me town, he thinks I am mafia out of a TONE READ. Again, why not voting Onegu? yeah dude he's also scumreading Onegu so I don't see the issue here 4) When I reach majority with 5 votes, he finally decided to vote Onegu. In other words, he only votes his scumread when his former townread is dying anyways. And now onegu is getting lynched, so what's the issue | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:46 Vivax wrote: I'm gonna be pissed if 1gu flips town. At BH and ritoky mostly. Oh come on dude, he's gonna flip scum. AND HYPOTHETICALLY Even if he did flip town could we reallya fford NOT to lycnh him | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:49 Onegu wrote: Alright I am here. So tell me why I am scum this game? My day 1 vote? Nope I already proved I do this as town so at best it is NAI. My day 2 vote? Nope I tried to get you guys to lynch sucm in Hopeless. Had 3 people ready to move but it wasnt enough. Who cares if I was off wagon. Todays vote? You say I am wasting it. Well I am sick and wanted you to lynch scum in hopeless. Now I am here. What else you got? Nothing because I am not scum I am town and you are putting yourselves in lylo. Gumshoe no fucking way do I kill Rayn. I am going to be a lynch target no matter if rayn is in the game or not. Rayn town read me and wouldnt vote for me. You calling wifom because I could do it to make people town read me? Nope doesnt work that way I am not killing the only hope I have to not be lynched. haha did you really come back like 10 minutes before deadline with your vote on H1 to defend yourself? are you serious? at least vote your scumbuddy GB | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:50 Chromatically wrote: it's pretty funny how people start playing right before they're about to be lynched Yeah, this doesn't really make me feel better about the 1G lynch (or worse, either)... just amused. dude shoulda played the game. Now he's getting what's coming to him. | ||
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actually what do I care? lynch GB if you want. fuck it! Been there, done that.. aw fuck it... What am I sayin? Shoot em both Grady, where's your gun at | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:53 Onegu wrote: Im sick. I am town. I came back 10 min before lynch. Anyway lynch Xata and hopeless after me. Look at this kid. why not GB? what makes GB, town, 1G? | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:54 Onegu wrote: You guys cant even tell me why I am scum.. BH why am I scum? YOU'RE NOT PLAYING THE GAME YOU ARE NOT PLAYING THE GAME | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: Hey guys let's lynch GB now please, I can actually see Onegu flipping town I know things LOOK that way, I know he SOUNDS like a desperate townie, but really, it's fine. ITS FINE. We'll get GB tomorrow. Let's get 1G now. DO NOT STOP. DO NOT UNVOTE HIM CHROM | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:55 Chromatically wrote: BH you can come to the dark side with me, I'm already over here on GB you can do it I believe What makes GB worse? what makes him worse, Chrom? He's just posting more, so he looks scummier, they're both scum. It's fine. One's just a little more active On October 30 2015 06:55 Onegu wrote: Ritoky really think about this. I never kill rayn in 100000000 years as scum here. Its not wifom, its common sense. you're not even playing the game, I doubt you directed your team's kill | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:56 Chromatically wrote: ritoky abandoned us in our time of need, he will have to bear the shame of a thousand years if this goes badly THE ONEGU LYNCH IS FINE, DON'T LISTEN TO HIS CRYING | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:57 Onegu wrote: No its just true there is no logical reason for me to kill rayn. Also guess I will vote GB just for tie breaks. ##Unvote ##Vote: Glowingbear there's an odd number of players, your vote does nothing anyways haha | ||
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GOD YOURE SO HARD TO KILL JUST DIE | ||
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On October 30 2015 06:59 Vivax wrote: BH hunting the epeen from Onegu lynch while saying GB claimed scum. priceless. they're both scum. THEY ARE BOTH SCUM but i'll be damned if I dpon't get 1g lynched | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:01 Chromatically wrote: Whew, now we can just lynch 100% mafia gumshoe next and win wat | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:03 Vivax wrote: BH screw you <3 | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:05 gumshoe wrote: The only reason hopeless votes gb there is to save onegu, why is gb not scum as well? Because then hopeless just votes onegu and looks waaay less fishy. so yeah, third scum is still out there boys. hmm, that makes a lot of sense actually if H1 could tell 1G was up to be lynched-- he was trying to save the teammate. I think there's a good case that H1's vote means GB has to be town. On the other hand, 1G/GB/H1 isn't ruled out by this: it's worth noting that up until the very end, GB was on the chopping block. H1 was voting GB, who was going to flip scum (in this hypothetical) and make himself look good. It's not like 1G was ACTUALLY going to survive. If we lynched GB, first, we were still gonna lynch 1G even if I get shot-- lots of people were convinced on 1G. That being said, we should probably lynch H1 first. In both of these scenarios, H1 is scum, and EITHER WAY, I think H1 MUST be lynched before end of game. Like, even if he's somehow town, how would we know? We have to lynch H1. I'm onboard with lynching H1 first, then. I'll take some time to think of third scum and do some reading tonight. One of me or gum is probably getting shot so the other has to lead town with just the filter of the dead guy. Gummy, you and I should both leave behind good analysis | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:07 Vivax wrote: Super flawed logic cause at the time he voted he couldn't foresee anyone switching and he made it 5 4 And if he pops up to ninjavote just to bus when Onegu has a majority he's screwed anyway, nobody would buy it from him given how he's playing. Again, it doesn't necessarily make GB town, but we need to lynch H1 anyways and we might as well go for him first. It just means there's a way that the voting allows GB to be town, does that make sense? | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:06 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure if that's a good enough reason to clear GB since it was uncertain which one of them was getting lynched though.. Right, at the time GB was in the lead for votes, so it could have been a bus on a certainly-dead townie. But I think most explanations of what happened involve H1 being scum, no? | ||
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Man whatever chill out. H1/GB as last two scum still makes sense, there's no reason NOT to lynch H1 first, we gotta lynch him anways right? let me crank out some VCA to show this reasoning for going after H1 | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:12 gumshoe wrote: I actually dont care if gb dies, call me cold for that, but yeah I dont trust the guy at lylo and we still have 1 mislynch so who better to spend it on right? But on a less frivolous note, he is probally town much to our collective dismay / : whats more, he may have been right from the beginning XD we probably owe him an apology if things turn out how I expect. Let's lynch H1 and see where we're at. Like, there's another possibility in my head here, which is "GB is scumteam endgame". Basically, ASSUMING I'm right about H1/1G being scum, their partner would probably like, bus them, not defend them right? These guys barely played the game. So GB being "right" all game about H1/1G but never actually being able to push through a lynch (and interestingly, starting a panicked shoutfest when Onegu was getting lynched today) or really putting together a coherent case on them makes sense. Enough tinfoil hatting-- I'm gonna VCA now | ||
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Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu So, just taking a look at what we have here, I think we can reasonably say that the GB/H1/1G team remains reasonable. During Day 1, there were three wagons, and now we know the alignments of all three: Slam and rayn were town, Onegu was scum. Slam was the main wagon, with rayn and Onegu as secondary wagons. There were lots of town players on slam, and we see Onegu voting rayn. Noteworthy: ritoky, Xat, and GB are all off the slam wagon and still alive. Hopeless1 is on the slam wagon. I’m pretty sure scum didn’t have to actually DO anything D1. Our main lynch targets were rayn, the RNG targe,t and Slam, who was lynched on meta. Onegu was more of a sidestory and my shenannies never got off the ground. I think scum could be anywhere in that day 1 stuff. They didn’t have to do shit. Day 2, we wee two major wagons: Yam and GB. At the end of the day, Yam was set up to be (and would have been) modkilled. I tried to shenannie onto GB, H1, or 1G. Some peopel were willing to follow. 1G had his vote parked on H1. GB had his vote parked on rayn (who knows why?) so the relevant people here for lynching GB, or heck, anyone else, would be Gum, Xat, H1, and Vivax. In the “GB is scum with H1” theory, 1G made an irrelevant vote and H1 voted to keep Yam on the chopping block. This seems pretty flakey— GB could have easily died, after all— but doesn’t contradicto the thoery. In the event that GB is actually town on this day, it’s not clear to me why H1 or 1G doesn’t shennanny onto GB. 1G could at least tie it up, and H1 (or, in fact, any of Gum, Xat, and vivax) could effortlessly secure a double townie lynch. That would have put us in MYLO today. So, basically this tells us that either GB is scum, or scum had already committed a couple votes on GB and couldn’t push through the double-townie lynch even if they wanted to. The following players were capable of cause a double-lynch: Gum Xat H1 vivax Onegu might have been able to do it, but ONLY if rayn unvoted xat and voted GB, or if one of the yam votes unvoted. So: GB is scum so scum didn’t hammer him for 2x lynch; or NO SCUM in Gumshoe/Xat/H1/Vivax (therefore scum COULD NOT hammer him); OR scum was uncoordinated at the end of D2 (for example, H1 could have been scum but unable to hammer due to being too AFK) Basically one of the following is probably true: Option A: GlowingBear is Scum, so scum didn’t hammer him. Option B: GB is town, therefore last 2 scum are outside gum/xat/H1/Vivax (in this case, that would mean chrom/ritok/bh from an agnostic perspective) Option C: GB is town, but there is at least 1 scum inside gum/xat/H1/Vivax. That scum was afk at deadline or was very confident / didn’t care about bagging a free mislynch, or thought hosts would not follow through on activity modkills. If GB was town, I’m pretty sure scum would have gone for the double lynch. It’s not like Yam was actually playing the game; if you’re scum and GB is town, there’s no reason to force through a Yam lynch over a GB lynch, especially since GB is actually trying. Anyone see any flaws in that? | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:40 Xatalos wrote: How about comparing the D2/D3 voting behaviours? Any interesting stuff when they're compared to each other with the assumptions of GB being town/scum? Ritoky and I voted GB D2 and 1G D3. Ritoky did so on emtion, I did so on reason (I was shennannying onto GB; I would have prefered to lynch 1G, as I said, and got 1G lynched today) H1 and Vivax voted Yam D2 but swapped to GB D3. I'll have to read their reasoning about lynching GB over 1G, while lynching Yam over GB | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:42 Xatalos wrote: Well tbh I think ritoky is cleared with Onegu's flip UNLESS he's been very set on bussing Onegu from the start... I mean, he didn't really hesitate much on either D1 or D3 to jump on Onegu.... A bit hard to believe the ritoky/Onegu team.. ritoky jumping ship from his traditional GB read when he could have stayed on it means he's not scum unless GB is. | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:45 Xatalos wrote: Actually yeah, I at least wouldn't mislynch GB in that situation.... Because it would look pretty bad for you if you were the one hammering him and he flipped town, and he'd probably be very easy to mislynch in the future regardless... So I don't think that point holds BH... Right, but then we're going into 5-3 MYLO. Like, remember that at the time I was literally shenannying onto GB from yamato. There was a shenanny happening. Tons of people said "I think GB is scum, but I'm afraid yamato won't get modkilled. It's fine if he dies though." I think scum would have hammered. Think about what the thread was like in those moments-- don't just recall teh vote pattern, but the way things were happening and what was going on in-thread. One more vote on Bh's shenanny, that variosu people supported, wouldn't make you suspicions at all. I think scum would have done it. | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:48 Xatalos wrote: True... If GB is town, ritoky is very likely town, because it would have been so easy to just stay on GB. Hard to believe that ritoky would abandon that chance to bring the game to LYLO. (still not 100% since this would give him a great lot of credibility, but very likely town anyway) yeah definitely. "If GB is town, ritoky is town" has like a 99% truth value | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:50 Xatalos wrote: I guess it's possible... But still not certain. The main benefit would be forcing town's hand by refusing them another "free" mislynch, I guess.... And limiting the amount of time the game would continue and information would accumulate. Eh, maybe I'm misreading the situation but it looks to me like, if GB really IS town, there's a free mislynch there for scum to pick up at no cost. | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:51 gumshoe wrote: You need to also consider where scum was positioned day 2 : P I know hopeless was null on gb, wouldnt be too easy for him to hammer without getting wreked. Ah, good point. We have the possibility, for example, that scum hopeless is just playing this like SUPER duper slow and wants to lurk all game and not get lynched. Many people are still opposed to an H1 lynch, even now. Also he may not have even been around. I don't think that guy is even reading the thread tbh | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:53 Xatalos wrote: I mean... If town GB was mislynched immediately, it would bring the game straight into MYLO. Town would no longer have the leisure to screw around, every day would have to be a scum lynch. Which is a lot harder I guess. It's just like, I would be a lot more scared if we didn't have the 1-lynch cushion we have now, right? Like going into 3-scum *YLO is really freakin hard, very very few towns come out of that alive no matter the situation. Now that we have a scum flip, I think there's a lot of room for good analysis. I'll take a nother look at this after dinner | ||
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On October 30 2015 08:07 gumshoe wrote: Oh also present from Onegu guess this was why they shot rayn?T This should pretty much clear xata honestly. Theres some other stuff on the rayn shot that we could probally make use of, might do some more fishin later. Yeah it will be super worthwhile to go through 1gu's filter and see what he said (especially for speculation bout nks) and what people said about him, too | ||
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On October 30 2015 08:36 gumshoe wrote: can you please not force us to waste our mislynch on you? Also read this as an adendum to that, I understand how important your life is to you this game, but it literally means nothing to me / : so yes, I will kill you in a heart beat if town cant seem to function with you around. whoa chill out dude. if GB is shitting up the thread and causing problems, yes, it's reasonable to lycnh him, but don't do it if we think he's town, yes? We only have one mislynch of room right now so we should use it wisely | ||
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On October 30 2015 08:57 Xatalos wrote: Yeah, I guess this could work as a guide. lynch hopeless(); if (hopeless == scum) { party; party; party; lynch gb(); } | ||
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On October 30 2015 08:59 Xatalos wrote: bah... EBWOP lynch hopeless(); if (hopeless == scum) { lynch GlowingBear AND Vivax; else { lynch GlowingBear AND ritoky; } That should end the game, most likely? In the sense of "lynch H1 and GB, then evaluate" I think you have the right of it | ||
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On October 30 2015 09:00 Xatalos wrote: On second thoughts... Maybe it could be good to just lynch GB first? Hm.... I'm not sure it really matters; we need to lynch both, for basically the third day in a row. | ||
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On October 30 2015 22:11 Chromatically wrote: Here's something I just thought of: You're GB and you're town. You KNOW 100% that the wagons were mafia-town, and the vote went through 5-4. Here are the votes against you: Onegu (confirmed mafia) Chromatically (your townread who's been pushing you) Vivax (your #1 scumread all game) Hopeless (complete lurker you've been calling scum all game) So... a Vivax-Hopeless team should be pretty obvious from a town GB perspective, right? Instead, GB is assuming that Onegu was a complete bus from both mafia (who didn't hammer GB for some reason?), when he logically should see that all the scummiest people in the game (from his perspective) were piled on his wagon (who he should know is town). On October 30 2015 22:21 Xatalos wrote: Hmm.... Yeah, that's a bit odd. Would make sense if GB is scum with either hopeless or Vivax though. Yeah, I've been pretty much thinking GB/H1 is where we should be lynching tomorrow. I'm putting together a final VCA + Last Will post. On October 30 2015 23:04 Chromatically wrote: I'm getting worried that people won't actualy lynch GB, so I just thought I'd quote a lot of the points against him: + Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:08 Chromatically wrote: GlowingBear That's right ladies and gentlemen, this is a legit case so strap yourselves in. This game's filter --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GB has not been pushing his scumreads like he does as town GB has three different lynch targets throughout the day (although he spends most of the time on Vivax). GB does not even make an attempt to get people to vote on BH or rayn other than the posts quoted here. Vivax he "pushes" on for a little bit earlier in the day, but it basically consisted of talking to marv a little bit about it and then discussing it with Vivax himself. He never really pushes it very hard. Compare this to his other games (quotes all taken from D1): As Town + Show Spoiler + Mini Mafia Down Under On July 27 2015 03:46 GlowingBear wrote: .:Case on KelsierSC:. 1) Constantly whining about having to waste posts with bad things without actually using his remaining 50+ posts for anything else + Show Spoiler + /*really long nested quote omitted*/ If he is so worried about wasting posts with useless stuff, WHY DOES HE WASTE POSTS TO KEEP SAYING HE IS ANNOYED? "Yes, one person is enough to annoy me", really? Why is he so annoyed, man? "Everybody is playing like shit". No, nobody is playing like shit in this game. This game is pretty concise and to the point. His annoyance is unjustified, it's ridiculous. Looks like mafia trying to fake being emotional. 2) Deflecting any early suspicions brought on him + guilty conscience THIS IS HIS SECOND POST IN THE GAME! This is an unnatural reaction to what scott posted. In town mindset, the reaction I would expect would be "then you're stupid because I'm town" and not "ok, you think I'm scum, am I the only one lol". It reveals mafia's guilty conscience. More than that, and more important, it is a deflection of early pressure. He sees someone calling him scum and softly tries to shift pressure to someone else. If you ask "am I the only one?" a common response would be "no, I didn't like X as well" and if they keep talking about X, the pressure is shifted. The same reaction can be seen here: + Show Spoiler + On July 25 2015 19:54 KelsierSC wrote: This isn't going to lead to anything productive so I think it's best to just end it here. It can be interpreted in both ways: town not wanting to shit the thread, or scum deflecting pressure. Since Kelsier already displayed the deflection behaviour, the second option is more likely. 3) Wanting to lynch me then backtracking when having no reasons to + Show Spoiler + */ even longer nested quote */ The progression is this, for people that doesn't want to read the posts: Kelsier says he doesn't like me and he would lynch me happily. I ask him why he doesn't like me. He says everything I post looks stupid. I asked him what is stupid in them and why does that makes me mafia. He said it doesn't make me mafia but he would lynch me anyway, and that he is annoyed because idiots (like me) are annoying him, but never says what are the problems with my posts. He then comes to the thread and says he wants to lynch "hopeless, clarity, obi and bf", not wanting to lynch me. It's simple: he said he didn't like me hoping to have me as an option for mislynch. When I confront it, he says I look stupid but he forgets it's something he doesn't believe is alignment indicative for me. Then he says he would lynch me anyway implying that I annoy him. Well, I wasn't raising suspicions on him since that time. Now I've being pressuring him for the rest of day1 and he doesn't want to lynch me anymore LOL. He is not annoyed with it. What I mean with this is: his actions does not follows his discourse, which is mostly a scum trait. Add to this the fact that he answers almost NOTHING of my posts directed to him. He just deflects them, adding to point (2) of this case. 4) HE IS VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT HE IS FUCKING VOTING TOFU INSTEAD OF SCOTT. SCOTT WAS THE FIRST GUY TO ANNOY HIM (AND KELSIER WOULD LYNCH PEOPLE DOING THAT)! Why he doesn't prefer a scott lynch? Hell, a lot of people thinks he is mafia! Instead of going against the guy that certainly looked as mafia for him, he is going against questionmark!Tofu. More than that, he wasn't advocating for a lynch on Scott, but opened a range of possible lynches he would go against (tofu, scott, obi, clarity). IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE, PEOPLE! COME ON!!! + Show Spoiler [WIFOM] + Points on Kelsier were brought many times and no one quickly jumped on it, not even Scott, who was suspicions on Kelsier in the first place. The quick and unreasonable town reads Kelsier got points out that scum didn't want him as a possible mislynch. I am POSITIVE Kelsier is mafia. Vote him with me. ##Vote: KelsierSC On July 27 2015 06:28 GlowingBear wrote: Thought process does not compute. You think Tofu is Mafia Then you say Mafia is trying to take people out of the tofu wagon. The alternate wagon is clarity. I suppose you may think Mafia could be there. But you call Mafia people that were in other wagons and does not consider people that moved to the clarity wagon. You even raise suspicions on me but you don't call me Mafia (?), what's the point then? Then you dive clarity and suddenly he is bad? What about Mafia protecting tofu by forming another wagon????? Your thought process makes no sense and it completely fits Mafia perspective GUYS VOTE SCOTT PLEASE On July 27 2015 06:35 GlowingBear wrote: I mean, if you THINK Mafia is trying to take votes off of Mafia!Tofu you MUST consider they are forming the alternate wagon INSTEAD of ignoring people forming the alternate wagon and placing votes somewhere else. There is no other option EVEN if you believed in what you just said, it would make me completely Mafia, and not just something you would say "I don't know you're Mafia". Then other Mafia are boxerfred (?) and PROBABLY A VET? Why a vet, which vet, why not me. Then you simply say you could lynch clarity, man. You just said Mafia was taking votes off of tofu. You can't me town. PEOPLE PLEASE, SCOTT CAN'T BE TOWN Battle of the Drams Mafia: On October 01 2015 04:18 GlowingBear wrote: And truffle's recent posts are looking townie which is making me doubt my scum read on him. So there is that. LYNCH COOL TL NAME. Brb later On October 01 2015 06:54 GlowingBear wrote: STOP Keep your votes on COOL TL he is Mafia On October 01 2015 06:57 GlowingBear wrote: DO NOT VOTE SCOTT FUCKING KILL COOL TL ARGH DAMDRED ISN'T EVEN CLAIMING TRACKER, HE IS CLAIMING HE WILL HE DEAD As Mafia + Show Spoiler + Newbie Student XIV: On September 07 2015 02:26 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting scott. I don't see a better lynch than him. On September 07 2015 03:55 GlowingBear wrote: I really think noobking shouldn't be the lynch today. Vote scott. On September 07 2015 05:36 GlowingBear wrote: Superbia, I'm home but I'm not feeling well, so I'm not going to format it well so I can take a quick nap quicker: This post may appear contributive at first glance but it's basically a summary of the thread at that point and reads accordingly to thread sentiment, bringing nothing new to the table. Why is Rayn town, why he is so quick to give yamato a townread like that? Why just saying I'm "drinking" again, discrediting me? It's a bunch of rehash with an attempt of looking contributive without actually contributing. He then starts to post reads accordingly to his progression on the pages of thread, cluttering the thread with partial and outdated information he keeps further reevaluating instead of just giving his opinion on one big post. My problem with this is that he is again trying to look contributive while not actually being contributive. Worse. He is cluttering the thread just to show "look, I'm doing stuff!" instead of interacting and actually search for Mafia. He is very bold when he gives reads. Calls Nocturne "town" with no back reqsoning when he was suspicious of mage's slot. He gives 3 names of people he thinks are Mafia and he could lynch (sayinf maybe I'm not Mafia an cake is) but posts this: For someone who has 3-4 scumreads, this is extremely scummy. Why is he okay with boxer's lynch if he has THREE better targets and he even ADMITS boxer is only a policy? I see no better lynch. Game of Thrones Mini Mafia: On April 18 2015 05:15 GlowingBear wrote: ... I've already said I'd prefer to lynch a scummy lurker at this point. It's not that I can't lynch SL, it's that I can deal with him later since I have information on him On April 18 2015 06:36 GlowingBear wrote: I'm voting loafery thrn art Vote with me Mafia Mini Mafia 2: On April 08 2015 03:48 GlowingBear wrote: Lol Damdy. Last time you said this you were Mafia. I also don't have to rely on meta this early. Again, I also know well your gameplay so I can figure you out later better. I need more information on you so I can draft a meta argument. That is why I think you should be Mafia, though: jumping too fast on the conclusion that I am Mafia. As town, GB not only pushes his target a lot, but is very passionate about doing so (doing capslock or spamming the thread to vote for his target). As mafia, he may have a target but he is much calmer about it and doesn't seem to be very invested in the lynch. GB's pushes this game have resembled his mafia pushes much much more than they resemble his town pushes by not having any passion for pushing his targets and not being invested in the lynch at all. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total activity Here's just some numbers on activity for the games I looked at. Each number represents the page of filter GB was on after D1 finishes. Town games: Mini Mafia Down Under (this was a post restricted game): 5 pages Battle of the Drams: 9 pages Mafia in the Himalayas: 13 pages Mafia games: Newbie Student XIV: 7 pages Game of Thrones Mini: 3 pages Mafia Mini Mafia 2: 5 pages Average town: 9 pages Average mafia: 5 pages This game: 4 pages Of course, this isn't conclusive: activity is not entirely indicative of alignment, and the sample size of only 3 games per side means that this could be misrepresentative. However, I think the difference between town and mafia activity on D1 (even including a post restricted game!) is large enough to make it a point worth considering in conjunction with the other points. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other non-meta stuff One thing I thought was really weird from GB this game are the posts he pinged out when rereading the thread. I thought these were very strange posts to get reads from. Why does my post in there give him such a strong townread on me? I LITERALLY said that BH hasn't done anything alignment indicative and I get a day pass for it??? What? The posts from ritoky and Xatalos he quoted also seemed very strange, since I do not consider those posts particularly town at all. This doesn't make sense from town, but it makes sense from a mafia trying to manufacture their town reads on players they already know are town. In addition, I found this interaction with Vivax strange: Theoretically, GB has a scumread on Vivax at this point. So why is he basically giving tips to Vivax about how to read yamato? It makes more sense if he's unsure about his read and is starting to think Vivax is town, but his next list post just reaffirms that Vivax is his top scumread. I think this post is more likely to come from mafia, who already know that Vivax is town, than it is to come from a townie talking to someone they think is mafia. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is all in addition to the stuff that other people have said already about GB this game (usually related to his read on Vivax), which I won't repeat again here, and the general idea that GB really hasn't done much this game other than kind of just being around. ##Vote: GlowingBear Sources: Mini Mafia Down Under (town) Battle of the Drams Mafia (town) Mafia in the Himalayas (town) Newbie Student Mafia XIV (mafia) Game of Thrones Mini Mafia (mafia) Mafia Mini Mafia 2 (mafia) On October 27 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: GlowingBear is definitely mafia. Just read this and the post i made about this earlier, here: and here... The fact is this has nothing to do with either: 1) re-evaluating a read, or 2) not having read the thread GlowingBear calls me town, then calls me mafia 20 hours later while calling me town there all the time between. Nowhere there does he make any attempt to re-evaluate anything, also i asked him multiple times if he has read the thread properly. He says "yes i have". This is not re-evaluating something (in contrary to for what example i did regarding my reads on ritoky / GB on D1), because he never shows any process of re-evaluation. Then, he just ends up saying the same bullshit Xatalos is pushing. Now idk, maybe he expected Slam to get lynched and didn't want to be on a mislynch wagon, or maybe he expected Xatalos to be able to lynch me which would be a much better for mafia than Slam lynched. idk. But still, the fact is he ended up voting for his townread over someone who he "can't get a read on" (=null). That, is a fact, and he just made up reasons for the read, as shown above. Hopeless is another scum since he just doesn't play anymore. He can also get lynched. Next thing is to read Onegu, and unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. On October 27 2015 07:17 ritoky wrote: to summarize it quickly before i go: - no read on me even though he has played with me a bunch and can read me (claims can't){for ex. he has been mafia with me before and he knows how much i like the bus, i was expecting a no bus d1 = no mafia read out of him and i didn't get it} - self centric defensive play d1 - lots of talking about self and no real pro-active scum hunting - not GB town - isn't astounded he isn't being read town, hasn't freaked out, lacking charisma, low effort/caring level, and not plays attempted. - terrible defense - "i am town, push to vote" - 0 attempt to push his targets with any form of conviction. lots of caveats in the few reads given. if you find that town gb indicative then thumbs up to you, i don't. On October 29 2015 06:43 Chromatically wrote: Most of GB's posts on Vivax - "I'm used to see Vivax being paranoid town and him giving a bunch of town reads right out of the blue does not looks like his standard gameplay." #491 (first posts) - "I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated" #737 (list post) - "He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static." #774 (post to rayn D1) - "He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too." #1114 (end of D1) - "Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it." #1808 (D2) - "Vivax has displayed some townie posts, I must agree, but his overall gameplay seems scummy to me. He doesn't feel engaged to win. He hasn't done anything memorable." #2818 (D3) I was looking through GB's filter again, and I noticed how his reasons for his read on Vivax really change a lot throughout the game. His actual read is completely static, but the reasons completely change and GB gives no sign of how his read is evolving. For example, he starts by saying that Vivax isn't paranoid enough, but hasn't mentioned that in a long time. Instead he talks about yamato and how Vivax forgot about his read on him, but then he also didn't mention that again today? The only reasons he's given today are the ones in the last bullet point, which are basically completely unrelated to the ones he's given before. Basically, if the other reasons from earlier still apply, then why hasn't GB mentioned them at all? And if they don't apply anymore, then why has his read not shown any signs of reevaluation? On October 30 2015 11:09 Chromatically wrote: Here's every read Onegu gave on GB: + Show Spoiler + On October 25 2015 09:42 Onegu wrote: Ill read the GB case in a bit. He has been really null for me. On October 26 2015 23:44 Onegu wrote: No I never said he was lying. He never said he was working. I point it out because sometimes I dont know if he is working or not. I do not know his work schedule. My point was out of the 2 wagons I would lynch yamato over GB because of activity. And normally that doesnt work for yamato you cannot make a read off of him because of activity because he is working. But this game I know he wasnt working. This doesnt mean yamato is my preferred lynch, he looked really townie day 1. On October 26 2015 23:57 Onegu wrote: No I am not calling him mafia rayn. I am null on him. I am null on GB. They are the 2 current wagons. I gave my thoughts on the wagons. I said if I had to choose from the wagons I would vote Yamato. On October 27 2015 00:21 Onegu wrote: Becuase it effects my read on him. That is why I would lynch him over GB. But I am waiting for you to tell me why GB is scum. On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. And here's most of what he says about Hopeless (I omitted a bunch of "lynch hopeless" posts): + Show Spoiler + On October 24 2015 02:55 Onegu wrote: ... Hopeless said he was going to lynch me for being useless I told him good luck, he didnt bite at the bait. Not looking good. IE rels in rayns game. ... On October 25 2015 05:48 Onegu wrote: ... Could also lynch hopeless here. Like I baited him and he did nothing about it and just went after easy lynches even after threatening me. His reads seem to just go along with thread sentiment. ... On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 30 2015 01:48 Onegu wrote: That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons... Can we please vote hopeless? ##Vote: Hopeless So my initial reaction to this is that Onegu never giving a read at all on GB looks really really bad. I don't think this says much about Hopeless at all, it could be Onegu pushing an easy target or it could be him putting pressure on his scumbuddy that's not playing (and wasn't really up for lynch any of those days). On October 30 2015 22:11 Chromatically wrote: Here's something I just thought of: You're GB and you're town. You KNOW 100% that the wagons were mafia-town, and the vote went through 5-4. Here are the votes against you: Onegu (confirmed mafia) Chromatically (your townread who's been pushing you) Vivax (your #1 scumread all game) Hopeless (complete lurker you've been calling scum all game) So... a Vivax-Hopeless team should be pretty obvious from a town GB perspective, right? Instead, GB is assuming that Onegu was a complete bus from both mafia (who didn't hammer GB for some reason?), when he logically should see that all the scummiest people in the game (from his perspective) were piled on his wagon (who he should know is town). It is interesting that historically GB has been on the block but always gotten out of a lynch (especially given the possibility of a double lynch D2; this is on the list of reasons I think he should be lynched). I really think if he was town he'd have gotten hammered. As it stands I think GB/H1 should be our lynches, as a natural extension of 1G/GB/H1 as our lynches yesterday. I am pretty sure we just lynch these guys and win the game. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:33 Xatalos wrote: If gumshoe is scum in this game, I'll happily give the win to him. I think he's been the most helpful player for town in the game overall. If such a player is scum, then town deserves to lose... Well, I think gum is town so I'm glad for anyone to not vote him, but this kind of logic is shit. You lynch in a way that gives us the best chance to win, not because of some moral judgment about who "deserves" to win. I didn't push Onegu because his shit play meant he "deserves" to lose if he's town or if he's scum, I pushed him because he was likely to flip scum. By the same notion, I don't care whether gumshoe deserves to win or lose: we shouldn't lynch him anyways. Why? Because he is town. I think that he was instrumental in the 1G lynch yesterday (though if both wagons were scum as I suspect it doesn't matter) and all game has been laying down solid analysis. He has been unafraid to interact with players, make posts and cases, and comment on other people's posts and cases. Overall he plays like a guy with nothing to hide and I really can't see why people think he's scum. | ||
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On October 31 2015 01:36 Chromatically wrote: Guys, think about this: IF GB is town: The mafia are three out of {me, Vivax, Hopeless}. No question. If you believe otherwise (that at least one mafia was bussing), then you have to find a person on the Onegu wagon that couldn't have switched to secure the GB lynch. gumshoe wrote a justification for voting GB, he could have kept his vote there. BH was posting a lot about being worried about the lynch, he could have easily switched at the last second and people would be like "Oh BH, you silly goose! You and your shenannies!" ritoky switched for basically no reason and hammered scum, he 100% could have just kept his vote on GB with perfect justification. Xatalos was saying that he might be okay with lynching GB earlier in the day and he's been scumreading GB too, he could have switched. The mafia team is EITHER GB + someone else OR {me/Vivax/Hopeless}. To believe otherwise, you have to think that scum willingly avoided, for basically no reason, lynching a town and saving Onegu, which would have put us into 4-3 LYLO. BTW coupled with my D2 VCA I think we can pretty safely say that a GB/H1 team fits the vidence we have here. | ||
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oh lordy | ||
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On October 31 2015 02:11 gumshoe wrote: Dont worry about it, youll be dead soon enough : D don't see scum letting you through to lylo / : your way too green for your own good. Scum has what, 3 nks assuming the longest setup? If one of GB/H1 is town, and we lynch both, we go to 2-1 LYLO Pretty sure the people killed are gonna be you, me and xat unless scum is pants-on-head retarded | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:18 gumshoe wrote: im not gonna die / : vivax and gb (one of which are scum) are dumping tons of effort into scum reading me. I doubt theyll waste it with a shot (unless they go for super duper omega wifom) more likely they'll kill chrom or ritoky ( mymonies on chrom) course they could pull another rayn / : but yeah, pretty sure I'm sticking around. Hmmm yeah damn this jubpush on you decreases my life expectancy, doesn't it. hah. It's good news though if scum leaves us alive since we're a good bloc of townies trying to figure out the game. I'm gonna sit down with VCA and speculate for a bit on GB/H1. Anything else you want me to look at or on your mind? | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote: Absolutely. Especially when I was wanting to lynch him since day1. I could just try to kill Vivax instead. Why would I 100% bus Onegu? Why WOULDN'T you 100% bus Onegu? And when push came to shove didn't vote him until he was the only other wagon? Even when you threw away your vote D2, you threw it away on rayn, not on Onegu. You talk a big talk about lynching Onegu but... well, you never voted him, and never tried to REALLY get things going on him, until he was literally the only other wagon. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/497022-mini-mafia-the-vanilla-experience-voting-thread?user=glowingbear where are your Onegu votes, if you've been on him? It's a nice attempt at a bus I guess | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:31 GlowingBear wrote: Chrome, those posts are me saying I didn't want to mislynxh confirmed townies to try and lynch confirmed scum. Are you SERIOUSLY saying I repeatedly said "let's lynch Onegu", "I prefer lynching Onegu", risking having people saying "ok he is bad let's lynch him" over simply letting confirmed townies be mislynched??? I mean, yes? And if he did get lynched, it's not like Onegu was carrying your team with his amazing thread presence anyways | ||
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On October 31 2015 03:40 GlowingBear wrote: You guys are also saying that Onegu, when he can't back, voted on the third scum member of your #dreamteam, saw he was getting lynched anyway then voted me and begged ritiky to vote me instead of just rolling over and dying. Just because, you know, he wanted to survive over his scum partner. Sigh Onegu was hilariously ineffective, and suspiciously kept his vote OFF of you until he was sure it wouldn't make a difference. seems straightforwards to me | ||
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On October 31 2015 04:37 gumshoe wrote: You mean the same Bh you've been crumbing all game? This ones a jewel this ones just ironic given our current spot wow I didn't even notice this. that's amazing, Vivax has been gearing up to push me. hilarious | ||
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Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu So, again, looking at Day 2 it seems fairly clear to me that GB is scum or scum passed up an attempt to hammer him. Taking a look at Hopeless1, also, I think a H1 GB team makes a lot of sense here. H1 kept the lynch off GB. H1 imo is the other scum besides GB based on his really lackluster performance on Onegu. H makes a null comment on Onegu (link) during D1 then during D2 votes yam with another null comment on Onegu (link). H1 votes GB over Onegu but doesn't really explain anything about his reads on either of them: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25026630 In general this situation fits "H1 trying to look vaguely active on the Onegu and GB issue but not actually doing anything." Sadly, there's not really anything BESIDES VCA and this super tiny case that can be pinned on H1 because he's barely playing the game. Looking at what he's done, though, I feel like he'd look much worse if he was playing more, you know? So even though he's a lurker I think H1 is scum. Going a bit more in-depth on GB and H1, I think there's actually a really interesting set of things that happens with Onegu here. Onegu basically keeps his vote off of GB the entire game, including the critical Day 2 when GB is on the block. What's interesting is Onegu is effectively doing a soft scumread on GB during this time: On October 26 2015 23:16 Onegu wrote: Where does yamato say anything about his irl stuff in this game. I dont think he said he was working and I know for sure he said he was playing CSGO. And I would lynch BH and Hopeless over yamato because yamatos day 1 did look really townie. I was talking about the 2 current wagons GB and Yamato and my thoughts on that wagon. Pay attention to what Onegu is doing here, when we're deciding between Yam and GB. We're about 8 hours out and Onegu is saying that both GB and yam are good wagons, right? Remember he was "RNGsheepping" GB previously and graduated his read to null on GB after townreading him once it became clear there were scumreads coming out of the woodwork on GB. It's hard to say how much Onegu was actually reading the thread, but here's a decent explanation for what happened: GB has been bussing his teammates, 1G and H1, all game. But it's been a really soft bus, one with no votes, just occasional noises so if they flip he can go back and say "see! I was right all along, and therefore clearly town. it's good I was here to convince you kids". As he's trying to do now with 1G (even though, and i'll note, 1G/Gb/H1 has clearly been the best lynch-into group for like 96 hours). Then GB starts to come under pressure. As the Yam wagon appraoches, people start considering hte GB wagon. Onegu and H1 realize that GB can't as easily be their "hidden scum" (not without help) and can't blandly scumread him, so Onegu decides to change to a nullread. But then it's important that his vote be on Yam to save GB, or, failing that, that OTHER people vote Yam (which is what he goes with). So what does he do? On October 26 2015 23:03 Onegu wrote: So BH says I am scum because I come into the thread before I sleep to make a post. A post about something I have been thinking about. Then he brings something up. I say ok yeah maybe you are right we can discuss it before I vote him. Then I go to sleep because it is 2am local time. And BH know that I just peace out as both alignments. Moreso as town so that should be NAI to him. Would lynch BH. Out of the 2 wagons right now I could lynch either of them. Would lean more to Yamato as he looked really townie day one but then did nothing n1 and d2. This matches up to his scum meta as just fucking off and doing nothing. And I know he wasnt working because I was playing Dota with him. Well, as much as raynpelikoneet was an enormous pain, he's a sharp guy. He called out Onegu for this: On October 26 2015 23:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: because you are claiming you know 100% yamato is lying about his irl-stuff (which most likely makes him mafia) but your post suggests you want to lynch BH over him. So to be clear, what's going on here isn't some kind of conspiracy by Onegu but more just him flailing around and being scum, as we know. But he wants to be like "yamato is playing dota instead of playing, and isn't working". When he says "out of the two wagons", he's talking about the GB and Yam wagons. So he graduates GB to a nullread like yamato, but needs a reason to lynch Yamato. At the same time, he wants to reduce my thread presence by calling me scum. He tries to do all of this in one go, and rayn picks up that something is wrong. But the important thing here is how crappy the reasoning in this entire post is. Like, Onegu REALLY is struggling to find some justification to lynch yam over gb. If they're both town, would Onegu really care about this? of course not. So he starts faking justifiction. One of the things about being scum is, it's hard to fake a thought process. Something that looks super duper obvious scummy to town (pretending to be afk when you're not, or outrigh tlying), well, if you're scum, you ahve to FAKE finding things scummy, so any time you try to do these thought processes, they don't make sense. Onegu calls YAm scum, but he vastly undersells how convinced he is by this. Obviously, this is one of the many things that led to Onegu being caught. But we're leaving something else out here. Why is Onegu trying to paint Yam in a bad light? At the end of the day, Onegu ends up on H1, effectively opting out of the discourse and not like doing anything. As scum, he could have JUST done that and come out looking better. Instead, he goes to the mat, so to speak, saying he was video gaming with Yam and Yam wasn't playing Mafia when he could have been. This seems like a huge unnecessary risk to... well, to save GB. To make Yam get lynched over GB. Like, there's no reason for Onegu to do ANYTHING there if it's "GB is town, Yam is town, town is lynching between them" Instead, Onegu appears as some of that strange resistance that crops up every time GB is on the chopping block. Last final thoughts: So I really really think GB/H1 for the last two scum. I've made it very clear in several filters why this is the case. Gumshoe, and to a lesser extent Xat, have been working their butts off and are definitely town. Don't listen to Vivax' lies Ritoky is most likely town, unless GB is scum. Chromatically has put a modest effort into actually playing the game, and has had the right emotions at the right time. probably town for this. Vivax's strange actions and the fact that he's been building up a scumread on me and has recently revealed a "hesistant scumreaD" of Gumshoe http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=164#3278 makes me think Vivax is less likely to be town. In summary: Lynch GB, H1, and if one of them is somehow town, Vivax, in that order or rough order. Don't lynch Gumshoe. Really. Don't. | ||
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##vote: glowingbear H1 is also acceptable to me today. | ||
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On October 31 2015 07:56 ritoky wrote: putting this here for me to do stuff with later. first impressions: i am sexy, vivax and hopeless have voted together every vote, chroma/vivax/hopeless have never voted on conf mafia, no hipster mafia day 1 I see you've also taken the liberty of coloring yourself in green there On October 31 2015 08:13 Chromatically wrote: modest effort BH? I'm offended also I'm totally okay with either GB or Hopeless, slight preference for GB but I don't think there's any real reason for that other than "information" and he's more likely to wiggle out of it later historically: he is a wiggler. But if we lynch H1 today I'm sure we're lynching GB tomorrow. It's slightly frustrating to almost-lynch him so many times without getting it done... but he's on almost everyone's lynch | ||
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On October 31 2015 10:19 gumshoe wrote: gb stahp, just stahp please T_T hopeless would have just voted for onegu yesterday if he was town, why did he vote for you if not to save his buddy? PRO TIP: gb/h1/1gu scumteam | ||
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oh, actually, that doesn't explain it now that I think about it. H1 could reasonably vote either of them if he and gb are scum together. there might even be a reason to vote onegu since onegu was probably getting lynched no matter what, so get some cred.... hmmm | ||
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On October 31 2015 11:08 Chromatically wrote: I think the lynch was looking like a GB lynch at that point right? ritoky said he was on GB and gumshoe was on GB at that point too so the votes looked like they were going to be 6-3 in favor of GB. Makes sense if it's a GB Hopeless team for Hopeless to pop in and vote on the mafia that seems like he's going to flip. ah... so he'd get some cred, and cause he's generally lurking confuse reads on him? An interesting thought. not that this changes my general idea of how we should play the next two days | ||
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On November 01 2015 02:44 Hopeless1der wrote: Be honest, is there really a possibility that at I could convince everyone that I was town? not... really? | ||
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On November 01 2015 17:26 Chromatically wrote: Do you prefer GB to Hopeless today, Vivax? Or don't care? His vote is currently on H1, but from the sounds of it he's about to move it. | ||
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H1 (1):Chrom Not Voting (3): Gumshoe, ritoky, GB Gumshoe and GB are gonna vote H1 by the looks of things (though Gumshoe has a good chance of being convinced by Chrom's case IMO Based on ritoky's post analyzing GB he wants to maybe lay off GB today and vote H1 first. he doesn't post hard conclusions but htese are the two most recent of his posts on our wagons: On October 31 2015 07:46 ritoky wrote: not really sure what to make of that. wifom tells me suggests a GB/x team otherwise i am confirmed town and should be instantly shot because all other cases i am conf. brain tells me that whoever is making kills needs lessons from me on how to win as mafia.... i kinda wanna lynch GB first just cuz i am greedy and if he is town then i am full confirmed 4 lyfe instead of 99.999999999999999% confirmed like i already am. and if he is mafia then i lynch mafia and have a perfect voting record which means despite my actual play i am actually the best ever. win-win for me. but i seem to remember someone having some reason why hopeless was better first? what was it? On October 31 2015 07:56 ritoky wrote: putting this here for me to do stuff with later. first impressions: i am sexy, vivax and hopeless have voted together every vote, chroma/vivax/hopeless have never voted on conf mafia, no hipster mafia day 1 I'd be interested to hear what ritoky has to say now, before end of day. ritoky: please fill us in. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:10 Chromatically wrote: If GB is town, then Hopeless is like 99% mafia for coming into the thread and voting on the townie in a town-mafia lynch, so he should be lynched tomorrow. I don't see a situation where the next two lynches are GB-Hopeless in some order, and I don't see any world where they are both town. So either way we should get to final three at least. I still feel good about GB/H1 scum. I understand there's some people feeling unconfident here but we just need to stay the course. This might be the last day we're able to lynch GB, too-- people who are scumreading him have been getting shot over time. Regardless, I'm figuring we lynch GB and H1 and win the game. And, as you said, even if one of them is town, it's almost certain they're not BOTH town. | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:14 Chromatically wrote: We can't know why rayn was killed, but it could just be very simple reasons. Maybe Onegu did it so he could make that argument in the thread, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the other mafia at all. Or maybe it was something else, like GB wanted to kill one of the people who was going after him hard in the thread. I think it would be a mistake to overspeculate on the rayn nk, but I will note that there's nothing inherently wrong with it with a GB/1G/H1 team. Like, yeah, rayn wasn't captain mcuseful but those guys could have shot him, and 1G certainly had a reason to if nothing else | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:28 Vivax wrote: BH why no opinion on who to lynch first between them? I've been super duper clear on this repeatedly, said it so many times I'm kinda amazed you're confused, but even if I hadn't made it clear earlier: On October 31 2015 07:03 Blazinghand wrote: Huh. I was guessing gumshoe, but maybe scum think they've got a chance of lynching him. IT's not happening, though. ##vote: glowingbear H1 is also acceptable to me today. I'm voting GB and said "H1 is also acceptable" and I did this like 2 minute sinto the day. get your head in the game boyo | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:20 Chromatically wrote: Yep, I'm still on the GB/Hopeless idea too. I'm just arguing for the cases where it's not true, we should still lynch the other one and they shouldn't both be town. I have to go for a few hours before the lynch so I'll probably move over to GB before then since that's what it's looking like. Prevent shenannies or something I guess? I agree that even if GB/H1 shoudl flip town, we probably need to lynch the other one. That being said, I fully expect they'll both flip scum. On November 02 2015 02:21 Chromatically wrote: Yeah, it's not a point in favor of GB being mafia, just trying to show that it's not a reason that GB is town either. yeah. Gb isn't mafia BECAUSE of nks, but they don't exonnerate him like some people think imo. My VCA has also shown taht it's super sensible for him to be mafia also. yeah fuckin vivax On November 02 2015 02:32 Vivax wrote: I have a preference on who to lynch first and that for good reasons I explained. It's not "shit" if I get to discuss that with BH after noting that he isn't interested in doing that. ???? | ||
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On November 02 2015 02:40 Vivax wrote: It's only dirt cause you like to think it is, but it's just me observing that he doesn't have a preference on GB hopeless and I want him to have one and am working for it and you put things into my mouth saying I want to "throw dirt" at him. like, I've been pushing pretty hard on GB for the past 96 hours. THAT BEING SAID, I do think they're both scum, so if H1 gets lynched today I'm not gonna be too upset, but let's be real here: they're both scum. we lynch them both and win this game. I think we lynch GB first. Some others, like gumshoe, think we should lynch H1 first. Even so, you can literally see my vote on GB. RIGHT NOW. my vote is LITERALLY on GB. | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote: I've read that but it's no explicit preference for GB, it's just you voting him first while having a "meh,whatever" attitude. all this is doing is making me vaguely nervous that you're actually scum. get to the point | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:19 gumshoe wrote: if we lynch gb and hes scum, we probally just lynch hopeless and then vivax the following day anyways, nothing really changes, if we lynch gb and hes town, same story, we dont alter course If we lynch hopeless and hes scum, again, we stay the course if we lynch hopeless and hes town, that means ethier way we have a complex bus between vivax and gb, or someone in the town circle is scum. Basically we have 4 outcomes, and only one of them has us changing course / : the only information that matters is the one you have to act on, therefore if you lynch for info, hopeless is the superior choice. Wait, whey are we abandoning the H1 lynch if GB flips scum/town? I feel like we were all together on this before the Onegu flip: we lynch Onegu, Gb, and H1. Now the Onegu flip happens and everyone's freaking out. Why are we freaking out? Things are going great. I mean, yeah, vivax has turned into a suspicious motherfucker, but we have a spare lynch for him anyways. I think we got this on lockdown. On November 02 2015 02:47 Chromatically wrote: Honestly, I don't know what my preference is really (on GB/Hopeless today) so I was just planning on going with whatever most people wanted to do to prevent some crazy voteswitches if people went insane or something. I've thought about what would happen if either player flipped either alignment, and I believe that the next lynch is always the other player. I want GB because knowing what the wagons are is nice, he's getting harder to lynch (especially if Hopeless is town and we go to LYLO), he's very likely to be mafia from play, and personal gratification. I want Hopeless because it feels incorrect to let him live another day without playing, and because he's very likely to be mafia just from his vote yesterday. Maybe this is getting to far ahead, but in the event that we lynched Hopeless today and he flipped mafia, I think it's pretty important that we lynch GB next and not at LYLO. That way, in the event that GB is town, we have maximum information at LYLO on the D3 wagons so we can determine what the most likely last mafia is. I guess this scenario is unlikely though because it's not LYLO if Hopeless is mafia so GB probably gets lynched. So I'm not sure if any of these reasons is better than the others. Yeah support for the GB wagon has been gradually shot by scum for the past few days. | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:29 Vivax wrote: Read my posts about why I wanna lynch GB first, which I made right before upsetting you so gravely with those posts of mine, and tell me if you're convinced would be a start. Or think of something that makes 1 lynch better, information wise or otherwise. Why? Cause I want to kill GB and like to know who's on the stable train of killing him. I'm sticking on GB unless it is necessary to swap to H1 to prevent a retarded lynch (like, say, gumshoe or myself) from happening. I actually did like an enormous analysis post that maybe you forgot which is here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=173#3451 Here are some highlights: On October 31 2015 06:56 Blazinghand wrote: But the important thing here is how crappy the reasoning in this entire post is. Like, Onegu REALLY is struggling to find some justification to lynch yam over gb. If they're both town, would Onegu really care about this? of course not. So he starts faking justifiction. On October 31 2015 06:56 Blazinghand wrote: Why is Onegu trying to paint Yam in a bad light? At the end of the day, Onegu ends up on H1, effectively opting out of the discourse and not like doing anything. As scum, he could have JUST done that and come out looking better. Instead, he goes to the mat, so to speak, saying he was video gaming with Yam and Yam wasn't playing Mafia when he could have been. This seems like a huge unnecessary risk to... well, to save GB. To make Yam get lynched over GB. Like, there's no reason for Onegu to do ANYTHING there if it's "GB is town, Yam is town, town is lynching between them" Instead, Onegu appears as some of that strange resistance that crops up every time GB is on the chopping block. And that's not counting the VCA or other stuff I've said before that. I'm too lazy to dig it all up. Don't worry dude | ||
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On November 02 2015 03:34 Chromatically wrote: Guys, is this a scumslip? If you're town, then we're in LYLO and can't afford a mislynch after GB dies. If you're mafia, then we can afford a mislynch after GB dies. Maybe he just isn't thinking about the game at all and didn't count the number of players left..? But why would he even bring up the scenario that we could have another mislynch after him? If he's mafia and forgot that he has to count himself as a mislynch? Scumslips are generally not a "real" thing-- town makes them about as often as scum, in my experience. Bear in mind, I still think GB is scum, but just saying: he's not scum for "slipping" that he's scum and not town in his analysis of how many mislynches we have. People make mistakes all the time. | ||
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On November 02 2015 06:37 GlowingBear wrote: :/ Hey I was thinking about this When Jesus died on the cross, whose fault was it? The people that killed him or his because he couldn't prove his innocence? If you're going to be a martyr, at least be Socrates and not Jesus: ![[image loading]](http://static.existentialcomics.com/comics/theApology1.png) ![[image loading]](http://static.existentialcomics.com/comics/theApology2.png) | ||
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On November 02 2015 06:55 ritoky wrote: hey gb, if i've been wrong for like 75% of the game on you. my b. i owe you a chicken sammich. Don't worry we got dis | ||
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We should still lynch h1 imo | ||
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On November 02 2015 07:57 ritoky wrote: i did the sickest BH impression for like 72 hours that game too, couldn't handle holding it up all game. BH is just too massive for me to handle. PHRASING | ||
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On November 02 2015 08:21 Chromatically wrote: I feel like we're getting to the point of the game where it's actually important to not post reads during the night so that mafia can't use them to direct their NK. it might make most sense to post them all right b4 EoN | ||
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On November 03 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: It's useless that you talk to me like I need convincing given I know my alignment and know for a FACT that Onegu got bussed. And I think the guy who profited a lot from that lynch was ritoky, even though his filter is really lackluster oterhwise. he did, but couldn't he have just stayed on GB, who was town, and moved us into LYLO right away? I guess no matter what there was some bad play from scum not pushing us into LYLO early either using the double lynch D2 or the wagons D3, but at the same time, it seems like ritoky who was very pro-lynching-gb would have looked fine if he stayed on gb, no? | ||
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On November 03 2015 03:20 gumshoe wrote: nah your not getting vivax's argument / : vivax knows hes town 100 percent, therefore it doesnt matter how bad a play scum made, because hes not scum, therefore there must be scum who bussed (that or chrom and hopeless are scum together, but I think vivax has flip flopped enough for one game so no reason to invite that) I mean, I get that vivax thinks he's town, but I don't see why he's fixated on Ritoky in particular. Like "clearly scum must have bussed Onegu, therefore Ritoky did it" seems to be somewhat of a stretch. I will sit down with VCA as usual and crank out some analysis before EoN and read vivax in detail, since it looks like we need to identify another scum. In any case, despite this setback with GB I still think H1 is the right lynch tomorrow. The answers I'll leave will be more focused on who to go after post-H1-Lynch. Let me know if you have any requests. | ||
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Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu Day 4 GlowingBear (6): Blazinghand, Hopeless1der, Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, ritokyVivax (1): GlowingBear So, we have new flips and new information. Day 4 was a unanimous lynch and tells us little, so we’ll look at the earlier lynches: First off, the Day 3 wagons were scum and town. People who were on the Onegu wagon are more likely pretty much automatically to be twon; people on the GB wagon are more likely to be scum. Of course, there’s a chance of scum bussing in a situation like this, but they only needed one more to get to LYLO. Vivax, Chrom, and H1 are the three unflipped players who were voting GB EoD. We’re already planning to lynch H1 first, so we’ll ignore him and assume he’s scum. Chrom’s thoughts on Onegu: On October 30 2015 06:45 Chromatically wrote: W/E I guess it doesn't really matter since I'm pretty sure they're both mafia, it's just annoying since people haven't been convinced on GB for 2 days now. If Onegu somehow flips town though I'll be upset. Vivax’ thoughts on Onegu: On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: Rayn's last "bigger" case: + Show Spoiler + On October 27 2015 23:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: GlowingBear is definitely mafia. Just read this and the post i made about this earlier, here: and here... The fact is this has nothing to do with either: 1) re-evaluating a read, or 2) not having read the thread GlowingBear calls me town, then calls me mafia 20 hours later while calling me town there all the time between. Nowhere there does he make any attempt to re-evaluate anything, also i asked him multiple times if he has read the thread properly. He says "yes i have". This is not re-evaluating something (in contrary to for what example i did regarding my reads on ritoky / GB on D1), because he never shows any process of re-evaluation. Then, he just ends up saying the same bullshit Xatalos is pushing. Now idk, maybe he expected Slam to get lynched and didn't want to be on a mislynch wagon, or maybe he expected Xatalos to be able to lynch me which would be a much better for mafia than Slam lynched. idk. But still, the fact is he ended up voting for his townread over someone who he "can't get a read on" (=null). That, is a fact, and he just made up reasons for the read, as shown above. Hopeless is another scum since he just doesn't play anymore. He can also get lynched. Next thing is to read Onegu, and unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. Why not include GB here: + Show Spoiler + On October 28 2015 12:21 Onegu wrote: Rayn scum reads Xata, and hopeless and then dies. Coincidence I think not. Anyway I am going to bed. We should lynch xata or hopeless today. Just a really derpy post, he thinks GB is town contrary to what rayn posted last. And wtf is a clout? + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 01:32 Onegu wrote: The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you. Then says he agreed with most of rayn's reads and later drops the vote on Hopeless over GB who is way more likely to be lynched. + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote: Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched. I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads. In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo. Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them. It doesn’t look like either of these people had a really bad reason for not voting Onegu; they weren’t calling him confscum. On GB: Vivax seems eager to try to hold the wagon together on GB and starts to use a little allcaps when he realizes Onegu is going through: On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE And seems upset that the 1G lynch goes through over GB: On October 30 2015 06:59 Vivax wrote: BH hunting the epeen from Onegu lynch while saying GB claimed scum. priceless. Whereas Chrom: On October 30 2015 06:54 Chromatically wrote: Hey guys let's lynch GB now please, I can actually see Onegu flipping town Similarly tries to get people onto GB, but the effort seems much more half-hearted. At the same time, it doesn’t seem ANGRY, like Vivax seems. It seems… disappointed? Scared? Overall I think Chrom comes out of this looking better than Vivax. Not gonna analyze the D1 wagon; they were on the same slam wagon. On D2, Vivax votes Yam, who was town, whereas Chrom voted GB, who was also town, but a potential double-lynch target. Chrom being town and H1 being AFK WOULD explain why there was no swap for 2x lynch, but this is only weak evidence since it seems most people woultn’t go for this as scum. Overall, I think in terms of tone we see a big shift from Vivax as we transitioned from the early game, when we were struggling, to the late game, when we started doing well. D1 and D2 were definitely both shitfests. Both times, the two main wagons were town, and both times, after a bunch of lollygagging we lynched a townie. D3 was when we finally pulled together and got our shit in gear. I think you’ll notice a lot of the players who ended up being town (GB aside), and yourself if you’re town and reading this, started feeling a lot more confident around D3-d4. Things have pretty much fallen into place; we even are accounted for fine if one of GB/H1/1G flip town, which happened. In general, we took control of this game, which is good. Chromatically seems to have reacted to this by becoming more relaxed and maintaining a good activity level. Compared to Vivax, he has the same number of posts, but he has a 40% longer filter in terms of words; He’s not spamming, but he’s making lots of post. His tone also seems pretty happy with the game. He wasn’t upset afte rthe 1G lynch, the first scum lynch, Vivax is MAD: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=159#3167 Look at his posts around there.He’s upset after scum getting lynched, whereas everyone else is energetic and happy. As we’ve started to win this game, we’ve felt more at ease, but vivax has been less at ease. We have one lynch after H1. Use it on Vivax. TLDR lynch H1 then Viv | ||
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Doesn't matter though. Kill Hopeless1der. ##vote Hopeless1der | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:01 Chromatically wrote: BH are you bamswoozling us all here if bamswoozling is good, then clearly yes. If it's bad then deffo no | ||
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So who wants to chat about vivax? | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:05 Chromatically wrote: I guess it makes sense that the mafia either thought that ritoky wouldn't ever get lynched (makes sense given the reactions in the thread to Vivax's point) or some WIFOM that Vivax wouldn't push ritoky right before he nk'd him and stuff. ##Vote: Hopeless1der Hmm, I hadn't approached it from that second perspective. I don't think it's a good idea to dig into that necessarily. I think in general though whether vivax is scum OR town, it's was fairly clear ritoky was unlynchable. Gumshoe and I both look good for lynching 1G over GB. Ritoky, though, he jumped over at the last minute and made a difference; he was pretty much unlynchable. Vivax pushing on him, hard, and failing to convince ANYONE showed that pretty much no matter what Ritoky wouldn't get lynched. If Vivax is scum, he probably realized he didn't have a good way of breaking off the attack, but killing Ritoky is a good idea because Ritoky is unlynchable anyways. If Vivax is town, similar logic applies; whoever is scum with H1 probably did some thinking and decided that Ritoky wasn't lynchable and needed to be shot. "Would scum Vivax shoot the guy he's pushing, to make himself look better, because it's not something scum would do?" is probably the classic example of WIFOM and shouldn't be thought about TOO much except to make sure that it really is WIFOM. So Chrom, what do you think of my toneread of Vivax? Take a look at his posts right after the Onegu flip, and how he's angry rather than pleased. Do you agree? | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:10 Chromatically wrote: Hmm I guess now that I don't have to think about ritoky I can take the extra time to consider BH/gumshoe again? That seems so ridiculous to me though. This'll be really disappointing if Hopeless is somehow town because I think there's literally no way we can avoid lynching him here. I'm like, pretty sure H1 is mafia. I know people might feel a bit spoked after GB flipped town but we were all sure that H1 was mafia and had scumreads of various intensity on him independent of GB's alignment for the past couple of days. I think we just need to hang together and not freak out about this. | ||
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Day 1 Alakaslam (8): raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Hopeless1der, yamato77, Chromatically, Vivax, gumshoe, Blazinghandraynpelikoneet (3): Alakaslam, GlowingBear, Onegu Onegu (2): ritoky, Xatalos Day 2 yamato77 (4): gumshoe, Xatalos, Hopeless1der, Vivax, GlowingBear (3): Chromatically, ritoky, Blazinghand raynpelikoneet (1): GlowingBear Xatalos (1): raynpelikoneet Hopeless1der (1): Onegu Day 3 Onegu (5): Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear, gumshoe, ritokyGlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, Hopeless1der, Onegu Day 4 GlowingBear (6): Blazinghand, Hopeless1der, Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, ritokyVivax (1): GlowingBear Updated for reference | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:25 Chromatically wrote: I mean, I would have said that ritoky was the most lynchable out of the three of you for the kind of stuff I talk about in that big post. I don't see you/gumshoe pushing Onegu/Hopeless for days and not telling Hopeless to get in on that action, whereas I thought it was possible that ritoky just bussed on impulse at the last second. But I agree that it's probably not too useful to overanalyze it. I'm not sure what I think of it. I don't feel like mafia Vivax would have been "angry" at you for lynching mafia (as mafia, I don't really feel angry at townies for lynching my partners), but I could see him as mafia getting salty about Onegu getting barely lynched over GB for what he thinks are not good reasons (mafia get mad about being lynched for bad reasons). Maybe he was just annoyed at you for not being on his lynch for bad reasons though. I'm not convinced that it's too alignment-indicative. Wouldn't mafia be careful to not show their emotions in the thread if they were mad after a mafia lynch? The stranger part about it, I think, is that it seems like Vivax really wanted GB over Onegu but didn't really have an opinion on Onegu. YEah I'm not saying Vivax being mad AT ME was the issue, but more like, when Onegu flipped I remember being really relieved and happy Vivax mostly seemed... upset. And if he were mafia there, it would make sense for him to be upset. At the time, I didn't realize this, since I Thoguht GB was scum; but now that we know GB is town, we know that mafia got REALLY CLOSE to getting 3 town lynches in a row there and sending us to a 3-scum LYLO. We'd be demoralized an dmight give up on the plan after a GB town flip; it's the kind of thing that would be a coup de grace for scum. Instead, we BARELY managed to eek out an Onegu lynch. I feel like Scum would be frustrated by that, especially with that last-minute, zero explanation swap from his game-long scumread, GB, by Ritoky. That basically came out of left field. At the very least, Vivax should have been moderately happy after that flip. I was ecstatic. GB was shitting himself in joy. Vivax? He was grouchy. | ||
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On October 30 2015 07:01 Vivax wrote: You're hilarious BH On October 30 2015 07:03 Vivax wrote: BH screw you http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?user=Vivax&page=11 It's actually not as strong as I thought, looking at it-- read through page 12. Let me know what you think. | ||
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On November 03 2015 07:50 Vivax wrote: It helps to know the context sometimes: oh you were screwing me for saying wat! that makes sense herp derp | ||
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On November 03 2015 08:15 gumshoe wrote: Whats more, a random shot onto ritoky is actually a good sign, mafia take crazy risks when they are not content with the state of things. A shot onto me, chrom or bh would really make no difference in todays lynch, if hopeless is town, maf wouldve killed one of us 3 so that we stay the course, by making a questionable shot, they threaten the current status quo. Thats pretty wifomy logic, but I feel pretty confident about it (bonus points if vivax or hopeless start talking about why the ritoky shot makes them totes town) I dunno, do you think there's anything that could REALLY cause us not to lynch H1? You and I are both super on lynching H1, I'm not sure leaving us alive would cause us to... not lynch him? I do get what you're saying though in terms of like "an unusual nk means scum is displseased with the current game flow" and agree with that in principle. | ||
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On November 03 2015 08:20 gumshoe wrote: nothing should stop the h1 lynch, but that doesn't mean scum ever stop trying XD yeah h1 needs to die | ||
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On November 03 2015 22:28 Hopeless1der wrote: If this is a mislynch, it is not 100% my fault. I'll take like 90% of the blame. But here, you want us to lose, and I checked, I'm allowed to help. ##Vote: Hopeless1der The day is still young, kiddo, so I'm gonna level with you real quick and see what you got. Right now, we're at 3-2 LYLO, right? It's just you, me gummy, Chrom, and Vivax. This game got real small real fast, and it means that now more than ever your incessant lurking and non-contribution is obvious to us. Since you seem a little mad and don't understand what's going on, I'm gonna lay out the offer to you that I make to pretty much everyone in your position: Don't stop talking. Make a case. You're not the only scum, if you're scum, and if you're town, you should definitely be able to finger a scum or two. Nothing you say will make me think you're town, but convince me someone is EVEN SCUMMIER than you are, and I'll consider lynching that guy first. Don't go quietly into the night; make lots of noise, show me what your'e made of. Maybe you haven't read the game much; don't worry, you only have 4 filters to look at. Take a look at the final vote counts, how people are treating you and each other today, and who's alive and what their filters say. Make a damn case. If you're scum, ignore this, but if you're town, have some damn pride. Don't just flop around like a useless ass. That's now what you do as town, not ever. Whatever disagreements I might have with GB and how he plays, he at least understood this: He raged against the night. He didn't vote for himself. He didn't even have his vote on you, he had his vote on Vivax; he was yelling about his case, calling his scumreads scum, arguing with all his might. Granted, this didn't make him look particularly townie, but in retrospect, yeah, this was a fairly town thing to do. It is entirely in the honor of Glowingbear that I'm even talking to you. HE said you were a coinflip, not sure scum, so I'm laying this out for you because GB isn't here to talk in your defense. Look at how GB went out: On November 02 2015 02:54 GlowingBear wrote: What else you want me to discuss, Viv? You want me repeat that the case on me is wrong because meta is bad? Or that I think you're mafia because of tone read and that you repeatedly said you were ready to un scum read me and to sheep my case, then suddenly you town read gum shoe again without interacting with him and there I am again on the chopping block for you? Do you want me to discuss BH? That I think he is too certain on a team that should look impossible? That he has being wishy washy on me day1 and day2, townreading ME from time to time then suddenly I'm 100% scum? Do you want me to say again I think chrome is town for effort and gumshoe is town because I don't think he would act so low? That hopeless could be town especially when Onegu tried to divert the wagon to him? What else do you want? On November 02 2015 03:28 GlowingBear wrote: Hopeless is always a question mark. If you can afford a second mislynch (after I die), go for hopeless. If not, then go for Vivax which I think is way scummier. On November 02 2015 03:38 GlowingBear wrote: HAHAHA the game where people were acumreading me until LYLO because I was useless. GJ Vivax. And if you really doubt hopeless won't flip scum you should be voting him since you thought I could be town a few hours ago when I made my case on gumshoe. You're clearly mafia and it amuses me people can't see. On November 02 2015 03:56 GlowingBear wrote: EBWOP: Anyway, call me lazy as much as you want, but contrary to what you're saying, I've been here giving opinion on people all the time after raging 3 or 4 times. It should be crystal clear I'm town after I had my reads and my retraction from gumshoe. Most of all, it is a sad day when a guy with 13 pages of filter is getting lynched over a guy who has only 3. And we both are obvious scum to you all. On November 02 2015 06:37 GlowingBear wrote: :/ Hey I was thinking about this When Jesus died on the cross, whose fault was it? The people that killed him or his because he couldn't prove his innocence? The man was a pain to play with, and yes, a hilarious awful martyr, but he was also a champ. He made an impression. I can tell you what his reads are, and why he believed them (misguided though he was). So, Hopeless1, where are your cases? Write them. If you're town, don't just write them to save yourself, write them for your honor or your e-peen. Finger both scum with glorious cases if you think you're up to it, then call us bad in the post-game. I fucking DARE you to catch two scum, if you're town. If you do, and we mislynch you, I give you the right to gloat all over me about how you're a superior scumhunter. MAN UP. GlowingBear died and one of the last things he said was that you shouldn't be lynched first. Do it for him, if nothing else. Show me what you got, if you really got anything to show. Anything less I'm just ignoring as the flailings of caught scum. | ||
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I am in blood stepp'd so far, that should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go'er. We lynched 1G and GB. Now we lynch H1. | ||
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well, one more to go. | ||
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hah. yeah, it's a good point though, we're pretty much free to talk since that's the case | ||
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On November 06 2015 01:56 Vivax wrote: Why does it have to be you gumshoe? I just said I wasn't sure who's mafia anymore but you say it has to be between you and me. Well, you have been kinda pushing the guy for a day or two. Like, assuming you're legitimately hunting scum and not just prodding desperately looking for anyone lynchable, one might assume your scumread of Gumshoe wouldn't have changed after this really low key H1 lynch. What's actually going on here, I suspect, is that you're scum that was hoping Gummy would be lynchable and now, finding that he's putting up a strong defense, is scrambling for any way to survive the next day. The fact that you responded to this with a question like that and not like a "ah, my scumread is actually on X for reason Y" does little for you in my eyes. That said, I do respect your asserted drive and motivation. I will listen to what you have to say. | ||
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Look, when it comes down to it it's pretty clear what's going on here, and what has been going on. The H1/1G/Vivax scumteam makes sense, from Vivax's strange pushes on people, to the fact that he's happy with anyone getting lynched as long as it's not him, to the way he handled D2 and his attitude towards his teammates. GB had it right. Chromatically and Gumshoe have both put forth massive amounts of effort, not just to clear their names or push their scumreads, but actually puzzle out what's going on in this game. Analyzing motives, talking to their targets and people who have reads on their targets, and so on. There's basicailly nothing that will convince me to vote either of them. My tonereads on Vivax, as well as the general way he's played, has made me pretty sure he's scum. There's something else, too, niggling at the back of my mind, and I have to do some research-- I think he usually picks strange NKs as mafia. I'll have to take a look and make sure this is true, and it's really a minor detail. It all makes sense, really. ##vote vivax I'm on hand for discussion, as always. | ||
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IT was in Game of Thrones mafia: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/482863-game-of-thrones-mini-mafia A 13-player game, and the order of things happened like this: Scumteam: Vivax, Vayne, GlowingBear (their QT ) D1 - LS is lynched (typical; LS is a classic mislynch) N1 - Artanis[Xp] is shot by the vigi, Palmar is shot by Scum (Palmar is a pretty normal shot) D2 - Oatsmaster (watcher) is lynched N2 - sicklucker (!!!!) is shot, instead of Holyflare or WoS D3 - GB the GF is lynched N3 - Koshi the Vigi is shot (forced, IIRC) D4 - loafery is modkilled, Vivax is lynched N4 - Holyflare is shot There are some interesting things Vivax said in the scum QT, and I remember reading through this QT and thinking his philosophy of NKs is a little strange. Anyone who has played with me knows that generally I think the best strategy is to always shoot the most dangerous player— whoever is towniest and has best analysis— so that you enter endgame with just lynchbait. Vivax, though, wrote things like this: “More worried about Wave, Palmar isn't doing anything. Just that Wave has a good shot at being jailed” (he was overridden on this; and yes, he’s trying dodge a blue but the point is there) “Better to fight and shit up the thread than goig down silently.” “Can we kill SL?” Now some people are talking about SL potentially being the vigi here right, but there’s no vigi vlaim (And the vigi is in fact Koshi) I But basically the NKs are: 1. Palmar (best player in that game; definitely a good N1 shot, but this was opposed by Vivax) 2. sicklucker (attempting to snipe the 1-shot vigi over the much more dangerous HF 3. Koshi (vigi shot, forced 4. HF, but only after Vivax is lynched, and after his lynch vayne pushed through a HF shot with no opposition. So this seems really small, but basically GlowingBear, who was also active in that QT, laid out a plan of killing WoS, Onegu, Hf, or SL. WoS and HF are both better players than SL. In general though, all of these are above SL in priority (even if the Onegu idea is a bit WTF) and vivax just asks for an SL kill. I just recall it seeming really really strange that HolyFlare lived so long. WAveofShadow is never killed either. By the start of D4, this was a game where the kills were pretty “WTF” and I am reminded of it. It’s worth noting that Vivax DOES Submit the nks for his team in Gaiden 2, a game that included lots of “heavyweights” like Palmar and Marvellosity, all of whom need like, immediate shooting if you’re scum. Scum had 2 NKs during N1, and here’s what Vivax submitted: ##Vivax shoot rsoultin ##Vivax roleblock JAT ##Kelsier shoot WaveofShadow Like, when these flips happened, we saw posts like: On August 29 2015 07:02 Trfel wrote: Hm.... Interesting. On August 29 2015 07:03 KelsierSC wrote: ummm going to sleep, reading again tomorow On August 29 2015 07:03 justanothertownie wrote: Thanks mafia. Shooting WoS was nice. On August 29 2015 07:04 Trfel wrote: I don't know what that means at all. I guess it makes sense if justanothertownie is scum, or if mafia wanted to kill WaveofShadow instead of justanothertownie for some reason. Though it’s worth noting KSC was scum, these posts are telling. It sounds familiar, doesn’t it? In general, besides ignoring the NK, most people thought these nks were pretty strange— and they were! If scum had been shooting at the towniest players, they may have won. Vivax must have some strange philosophy about how NKs should work, and I think this explains a lot of what we’ve been scratching our heads over this game with night actions. Obviously, yes, all NK shit is WIFOM, but these NKs have been pretty bizarre. We may already think Vivax is scum, but this really falls into place. Basically, I’ve kinda been bashing my head against the wall all game with these NKs. Marv N1— okay, okay. Fine. Even if he was angry, I guess. Rayn N2? What? Xat N3, hmm, he was townie but not that… ritoky N4? And now here we are. Marv, Rayn, Xat, Ritoky, all really non-standard nks. Yes, Marv and rayn are both vets, but at the time I can’t imagine anyone here thought they were threats to scum or leading town in any significant way. Normally, you come to a LYLO like this with one obviously scummy player and feel just a little bit nervous, right? Like “hmm, am I playing into scum hands and lynching someone who seems too scummy?” Because typically, I guess… I guess I expect LYLO to always be a shitshow, cause scum usually have NKs that make sense, right? In any case, I guess what I’m getting at here is that we have this really strange pattern of NKs, and It’s been bothering me, at least a little bit, basically all game. I think this is just Vivax at play though. Yes, Marv and Rayn LOOK like normal NKs, but we all remember what they were like before they were shot. I think we’re really on the right track here with Vivax, based on how he picks his nightkills historically. | ||
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On November 06 2015 08:00 Vivax wrote: The challenge in this game right now is to actually get you to look at each other without the constant thought in your head that I am scum for sure cause it's simply not true. Why do you have to look at each other and comment on that? Cause I got no real slamdunk idea on who is scum right now and I need help from volunteers. I can't solve this game alone, I've been just feeling outplayed for days and I'm paranoid about all of you. So before reading this post I was thinking "hmm, it sounds like Vivax is more interested in finding out who is lynchable than who is scum. he doesn't seem to care WHO is lynched, and instead is trying to feel out who it is possible to lynch as long as it's not him" which seems pretty untownlike. On November 07 2015 02:28 Chromatically wrote: Vivax, what's your order of who you think is the most to least scummy right now? Yeah Vivax, right now it sounds like this is Gumshoe you're most willing to lynch, is this an accurate summary of your scumread? | ||
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On November 06 2015 08:00 Vivax wrote: The challenge in this game right now is to actually get you to look at each other without the constant thought in your head that I am scum for sure cause it's simply not true. Why do you have to look at each other and comment on that? Cause I got no real slamdunk idea on who is scum right now and I need help from volunteers. I can't solve this game alone, I've been just feeling outplayed for days and I'm paranoid about all of you. So before reading this post I was thinking "hmm, it sounds like Vivax is more interested in finding out who is lynchable than who is scum. he doesn't seem to care WHO is lynched, and instead is trying to feel out who it is possible to lynch as long as it's not him" which seems pretty untownlike. Reading it did not change my opinion. On November 07 2015 02:28 Chromatically wrote: Vivax, what's your order of who you think is the most to least scummy right now? Yeah Vivax, right now it sounds like this is Gumshoe you're most willing to lynch, is this an accurate summary of your scumread? | ||
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basically, this entire game i have pushed hard to figure out this game. I've been wrong at times (pushing yam over gb; though both were town anyways, and i did try to shenannie onto 1g, h1, and gb) but in general I think I've played a really really good game. I helped drive us towards the right set of lynches, kept wagons together on 1g, h1, and gb, and basically all game have been doing my best to figure out the game. I honestly am proud of how I played this game; this is one of the best town games I've played, definitely in 2015, possibly in years. I was wrong at times but i figured things out. If I seem complacent on this lynch it's because chrom and gumshoe can't possibly be scum, and if it seems like i'm not entertaining vivax' arguments, it's because they're really bad. he's clearly flailing looking for ANYONE to call scum and ANYTHING that can stick. I'm around though if you guys have Qs | ||
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On November 08 2015 06:30 Vivax wrote: Which you say nobody would do as town on the chopping block at lylo? I care about lynching someone else cause I know I'm the wrong lynch. yeah but ur not trying to figure out the game, also like if you were really town, i feel like you'd have... like figured out who was scum and wrote a real case like 72 hours ago, instead of speculating about scum nk? just a thought also the fact that you've been pretending to push h1 and 1g but not actually pushing them and freaked out hard about the 1g lynch,t hen were mad when he got lynched... like i'm pretty sure you're scum dude, maybe you should check your role pm | ||
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On November 08 2015 06:36 gumshoe wrote: Oh shit D : you went the whole game without being bm, what have you done?! yeah that's my bad, i just got a little offended at even being considered given how i've played. i shouldn't let him push my buttons. also, sorry about the BM vivax | ||
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his arguments do not sway me keep it together | ||
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Marv and rayn were both shot because they were right about me, basically. Xat and ritoky were shot because gumshoe dying would make me look suspicious, and they were both unlynchable. By the start of D3 anyone who thought I was scum was dead, so there was nobody jleft to scumread me A lot of good players in this game; was tough. | ||
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rayn though, i shot him for scumreading me. If I'm scum and you scumread me or my teammtes typically you die. I'm usually a super awful carry btw because despite my waning skill and influence I'm still almost always shot before LYLO as town so me being alive is super suspicious. | ||
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On November 08 2015 21:14 justanothertownie wrote: I think mafia shouldn't be allowed to hold their shoot in this game but otherwise I still think that it was pretty balanced. yeah i was a little surprised to notice this. thanks to vivax for pointing it out! balance in this game happened in part because h1 and 1g were on my team | ||
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....unless i come to the conclusion he is scum then the next thing is to read BH. Just because BH does not really take any stance on any lynch. He really does not, he goes onto his shennies which gives him outs left and right saying either "i was right", "i tried to lynch mafia", "i didn't want to lynch town", or if he hit mafia "i actually wanted to lynch that mafia". Shennies are bullshit and they don't even happen. Period. He is not trying to lynch anyone for reals. This was so spot-on, except for the last bit where shennies are BS. They do happen, they just don't happen like that; you need a large base of people who are interested in them to begin with. There was a real risk on 1G getting lynched, it was just much smaller than you'd expect cause people weren't the most interested in shennies. I's also worth noting the gb/yam shennies would only help scum hehe | ||
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On November 10 2015 06:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: D1 when me and marv were voting for Slam there was no way you can ever lynch Onegu (or anyone there). D2 the only correct play (while terrible) was to lynch yamato, at least when he wasn't most likely gonna come back and vote. Basically you don't lose anything if you lynch Onegu the next day and he is scum, but if he is town and you lynch him AND yamato it's a disaster. I tried.. I tried so hard to get GlowingBear to do something else than tunnel Vivax, but no... I was planning to look into Onegu and you on N2 and wrote just what i remembered on the top of my head but then again Xatalos said something really stupid and it just killed my motivation. I didn't really have any other options for scum other than GlowingBear / three scum. But i ill never lynch "null scummy" players over "stupid scummy". I can't make myself do that. I would say well played but i don't think you played "that" well. Well okay, well played. You won after all.I think also gumshoe played really well despite the yamato push on D2. For what it's worth, I never had to actually defend myself from a push all game, which is why it doesn't look like I had to play well. However, not being in a position where I had to do that was tough! On top of that, I had to make sure to shoot everyone who was suspicious of me before they got to air their suspicions. Especially during N2 and N3, I was aiming to make it so nobody would actually scumread me so I never was put in the spotlight. Shooting you WAS playing well. If I left you alive, I have no doubt you'd have caught me. It is easy to say "just shoot the people who scumread you", and I always recommend this, but people are actually very bad at this and it is apparently hard to do. | ||
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On November 10 2015 07:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes ofc. I would have caught you all on N3. I doubt i would have lynched anyone but GB on D3 but after that everyone else was just town. well people are dumb and don't think why scum shoot people when it should be obvious. like idk, i didn't follow the game after i died because i don't care about the games after i die but it seems like i was the only person who was suspicious of you -- i get shot, people thought i was "distracting the town" (when in fact Xatalos was -- really).. Why does rayn get shot? hmm... Apparently 1+1 is hard. Once you're dead it's really rare for people to read your filter, sadly. If it makes you feel better if I'm town and I see you get shot I'll read your filter rayn | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On November 10 2015 09:00 Chromatically wrote: How do you determine that the BH read is significant compared to the other stronger reads when you're in the game though? Like how would you determine that that explanation is more likely than something like GB being mafia and worried rayn will get him lynched, or just a fear shot of rayn? (e. g. marv was just shot for being good and not for his specific reads) Sorry if it's a dumb question, just trying to understand. That's actually a great question. Basically what it comes down to is that it is pretty hard to tell why exactly someone was shot, but if someone IS shot, you want to review most of the cases they wrote and were pushing. Sometimes (As with Ritoky), people are shot because they're unlikely to be lynchable, or (as with Marv) are shot because even if they're not on the right track, scum respects their town play a lot and is afraid they might be on the right track. it's hard to distinguish this kind of shot from a shot on someone who is right on the money and has you as a top scumread, or from someone who is about to catch you but hasn't written a real cse yet (Rayn, this game). Generally what I do is read the person's last few scumreads and say "this guy might be wrong, but at the very least he's not lying". In rayn's case this may not have led to you scumreading me, since I shot him before he could really develop the case (i'm just skilled that way) but in general this is a good strategy. Don't take their scumreads to heart; just reread their argumetns thinking "this guy is confirmed town". This won't always catch you scum, but it means that the silencing doesn't work. And cause you're not just automatically copying them, but just re-evaluating their arguments, the scum wifom strat of shooting someone who's tunnelling a townie won't work either; you will read the case and judge it on its own merits, but know it comes from an honest source. Overall btw Chrom I thought you played well this game. I did not think you were a possible lynch target after like D2. | ||
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