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On October 12 2015 09:59 The Shining wrote:
It's simple maths. Whoever doesn't fight or isn't angry by D3 is obvscum.
Not necessarily true. In my first game I threw an absolute wobbler over Tubesock's Spanish Inquisition, claimed Doctor in an apparent fit of pique and then spent basically the rest of the game sulking; all of which got me out of a lynch and persuaded everyone not to lynch me the day after either. And I survived as Mafia RB. X-D
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On October 12 2015 10:12 The Shining wrote:
I actually hate this recent meta thing where anger = town.
Yeah its pretty easy to just fake it really. But its hard to decide which is which.
In any case...anyone got any more thoughts or are we just going to be waiting on seeing if marvellosity turns up? Because if he really doesn't come back then this might get awkward. He hasn't voted so realistically he could be looking at a modkill, so it'd be a wasted lynch. :-\
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On October 12 2015 10:17 MoosyDoosy wrote:
-Celestial-, are you a boy or girl? Sorry if you answered this earlier.
I'm a boy. But I'm not too bothered what people refer to me as. X-D
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Alright, look forward to the case.
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On October 12 2015 10:23 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2015 10:18 -Celestial- wrote:On October 12 2015 10:17 MoosyDoosy wrote:
-Celestial-, are you a boy or girl? Sorry if you answered this earlier. I'm a boy. But I'm not too bothered what people refer to me as. X-D Oops my b
Don't worry about it. I bet I'd look great in a frilly dress anyway, so call me what you want. 
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On October 12 2015 11:52 Eversince wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2015 10:27 -Celestial- wrote:On October 12 2015 10:23 The Shining wrote:On October 12 2015 10:18 -Celestial- wrote:On October 12 2015 10:17 MoosyDoosy wrote:
-Celestial-, are you a boy or girl? Sorry if you answered this earlier. I'm a boy. But I'm not too bothered what people refer to me as. X-D Oops my b Don't worry about it. I bet I'd look great in a frilly dress anyway, so call me what you want. I got this cute little black summer dress from the shop. I bet you'd look spiffy in it!
Hey...you're going to make me blush.
Anyway...to play devil's advocate here a bit I have one question to ask about this case against Shining: to what end? What would be the point of Shining's play here? Marv is totally dead in the water. He's not here. He might even get modkilled or replaced if he's not back in time to vote. Its a very, very easy bus to get on as mafia and if he's really not about he's not worth going out of your way to save...better to get the towncred for being on a correct lynch and let everyone WIFOM all over the VCA during night time.
What's the best case scenario here for scumShining and scumMarv with that play? Shining gets FF mislynched and marv either comes back or gets replaced. But because Shining was central to the FF lynch he's under heavy scrutiny and marv (or replacement) is under equal suspicion for doing bugger all for most of D1. They end up as top two high-priority lynch candidates for D2 and when one flips red I think the next gets lynched the day after. Its a hugely risky play.
I mean correct my logic if I'm wrong here, by all means. If you're all certain I guess I'll review Shining's filter tomorrow before the deadline.
I have to go to bed in a minute, its approaching 5am here. We got just over 21 hours before the vote ends by my reckoning so...we'll see what happens. Also a vote count would be great about now so we can see where we are.
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@Moosy: Yeah I can see that but frankly at this point even if he were to switch to marv and bus him, it'd still be massively suspicious and leave him in a bad position for D2. At least in my opinion.
You're right about the contradictions though. Like I said, I'll have another look at the filter tomorrow.
@Eversince: I honestly think that Gumdrop is just not going to come back and will get replaced. He's done it before.
Anyway, bedtime. Goodnight.
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On October 12 2015 12:51 Eversince wrote:
I dun' see the tie in for Shining and Marv scum team.
Both look iffy to me but how are you connecting em'?
I'm not exactly. Its not a read. I was running a thought experiment on it to try to work out the logic progression.
My point is that if Shining is scum his voting on FF only really makes sense if marv is also scum, because its a ploy to keep an option open to save marv if he suddenly comes back. And I'm questioning why scum!Shining ever does that given that scum!marv has done literally nothing so far.
It would seem to be a really bad mafia play to me. And borderline suicide to attempt. Why make such a risky move to maybe try to save someone who isn't even about?
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On October 12 2015 13:00 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2015 12:51 Eversince wrote:
I dun' see the tie in for Shining and Marv scum team.
Both look iffy to me but how are you connecting em'?
I'm not exactly. Its not a read. I was running a thought experiment on it to try to work out the logic progression. My point is that if Shining is scum his voting on FF only really makes sense if marv is also scum, because its a ploy to keep an option open to save marv if he suddenly comes back. And I'm questioning why scum!Shining ever does that given that scum!marv has done literally nothing so far. It would seem to be a really bad mafia play to me. And borderline suicide to attempt. Why make such a risky move to maybe try to save someone who isn't even about?
Just as a small elaboration to that bit highlighted:
If Shining is scum then there are four possibilities for FF and marv -
1. town!FF + town!marv
2. scum!FF + scum!marv
3. scum!FF + town!marv
4. town!FF + scum!marv
If 1 then why would he even bother opposing thread sentiment on marv? It doesn't matter overmuch to scum!Shining which of two townies get mislynched.
If 2 then I'd expect him to be looking for an entirely different target.
If 3 then...well that's just weird and hella risky given the gamestate. The situation is quite fluid, there's a very real risk of him successfully getting a scummate lynched.
4 would seem to be the only logical option.
Right now I really MUST sleep. Night. 
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On October 12 2015 13:17 Eversince wrote:
Why can't Shinin' be scum with Marv?
Oh, he can be. Sorry I didn't make that clear. Its just that if they ARE scumbuddies its an incredibly dangerous mafia play he's making to try to save someone who hasn't even been around and who everyone thinks is dirty as hell. It just doesn't make sense to me for him to take that risk.
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To be honest I'd really like to see marv's flip now and work from there. If he flips anything other than red then Moosy is confirmed town in my eyes; because why the hell does a scum try to drive people off an easy mislynch?
Unfortunately I think marv will flip red. Which means an awful lot more thinking will be required to work out any assocations.
I planned on going to sleep approaching an hour ago now. X-(
Okay, I'm turning my computer off. Laters.
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On October 13 2015 02:10 Eversince wrote:
Taking the leap, I'm wrong on Obvious, what's wrong with a Gum, Shining and Marv mafia scum group?
Because Shining could have secured easy town points by simply bussing marv who was nowhere in sight. Instead he made an incredibly risky play by saying he's staying on FF despite conceding that he felt marv was a more likely scum; even without marv actively playing at the time. If Shining is scum then that play is borderline suicide because marv might die anyway and he's made himself a priority D2 candidate for lynch.
The safest play as scum!Shining there is to just go along with thread sentiment, vote marv whilst simultaneously setting up a few more people he has fake scumfeel on. That way if marv doesn't come back then he hasn't stuck his neck out too far and if marv does come back he still has an out to try and him to get votes off him.
As it stands Shining made a play that made him look bad and now has a bunch of people breathing down his neck now. As well as marv who, on the whole, hasn't come across as all that convincing since coming back.
In short: If Shining is mafia with marv then his play has put heavy suspicion on two mafia players instead of just having it on one. Which is a poor mafia move no matter how you cut it. I don't think any scum ever makes a play like that unless its total desperation by the mafia team. Which is a very weird thing to do D1 with such a fluid situation.
I still think Gumdrop is just gone and won't come back. I don't think that's necessarily a scumtell though. *shrug*
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I think you're arguing terminology here to be honest.
What I THINK Shining is trying to get at is this:
- The case on marv is a stronger case. However the case is, at least in part by many, a meta read and meta is a poor way to judge.
- The case on FF is a weaker case. But its based more specifically on reads from the game, so the actual evidence itself is a better way to judge.
Its the difference between getting a strong answer from a weak method vs a weaker answer from a strong method.
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On October 13 2015 02:56 MoosyDoosy wrote:
-Celestial-, do me a favor and look at P3 of Shining's filter? Tell me what you think of the contradictions and waffliness in them.
Stream of consciousness:
- Part of the initial argument with ES. Honestly to me that whole thing just feels town on town. Uninformative.
- Comments about anger and rage in mafia TL. Then funny comment to me. Nothing much there.
- "Starting to warm up to the marv lynch". Says FF is giving counterarguments to what he claimed. Marv better lynch than FF.
- Comment on people not playing. NAI. It was winding me up too.
- Replies to you well about FF's counterarguments. Don't have a problem with this bit. The next bit is admittedly a bit weird: he says marv is a good lynch but is staying on FF because FF is on marv which to him means that he's wrong about one of them.
This is faulty logic to me. marv is nowhere in sight at this point. It makes perfect sense for FF to bus him if they're scumbuddies. It doesn't have to be either/or, they definitely could still both be scum. That being said it doesn't feel especially scummy to me. Maybe a little, but more like just a questionable leap in logic.
- Calls you town. Fairly easy call to make at that point I think.
- Stuff about pocketing. Tangentially related to the game but eh.
- Conversation with FF about his reads. He's convinced one of FF and marv is scum and effectively states that even without a marv flip he has enough on FF to make him believe he's scum. Which is fine as a position to take as far as I'm concerned but I'm not really convinced by the argument against FF honestly. Nor am I convinced that only one of FF and marv HAS to be scum.
- Gets somewhat unnecessarily aggressive in a follow up about the pocketing. Seems a bit weird; although his point is sound. Nobody is going to admit to pocketing.
- Reiterates that he thinks FF is scum. Goes onto the "marv is a better lynch" thing again. But as I stated in my earlier post I kinda think that this is a case of "weak method with strong indicators vs strong method with weak indicators" and poor phrasing.
- Knocking you down in estimation for claiming he's voting marv. Eh. Standard. Tries to explain what I just said in the point above.
- Criticises FF for changing his vote from one scumread to another. Which I do actually find a bit weird honestly. FF might be scum, but he's not scum based on that.
- Last few posts seem to largely be him getting mad at you for not understanding the point he's trying to make. Capped with an OMGUS vote.
Conclusion? There's some weird stuff going on but not enough for me to make a scum call on it. I'd null lean scum on him right now, but since I can follow his train of thought (even if others can't) and it appears to make sense I'm not going to lynch him D1.
I really don't like where he's going on the FF thing though. Overnight I might reread FF's filter.
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I'm staying on marv because I honestly think its our best chance of hitting mafia. He did nothing for most of day 1 apart from a bunch of useless early posts and since returning he's done nothing special.
If marv flips red then I'll re-evaluate everything, I think Moosy is probably town but with a red flip marv he could potentially be scum. If he flips anything else then in my eyes Moosy is practically confirmed town.
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On October 13 2015 03:29 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I'm going to wait on what Kelsier says and then make a decision. If he think I've been tunneling too, I'm going to have to accept that Shining made a terrible contradiction and play that made so sense and that he should be allowed to get away with it. But I'm still going to keep an eye on him.
Don't get me wrong I don't think you've got NO case. I'm very interested to see who flips and what info we get out of that.
But I just don't find it entirely convincing. Like I said, I can kinda see where he was going with it and it looks more like a poor explanation than a scum play.
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Incidentally Gumdrop will get replaced/modkilled if he doesn't vote before deadline; which is looking extremely likely at this point.
If he magically turns up right before it and votes then he's top of my suspicion list D2 unless he manages to look literally so green that I think he's a plant.
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On October 13 2015 03:47 KelsierSC wrote:
There are situations where a townie is being piled on and people will come to their defence to gain credit. For me the people who were coming to his defence, in a round about way
-snip-
Probably at least one scum in that group of 4.
I was somewhat defending Shining over the last few pages because I think I can understand his train of thought and I can see where the misunderstanding is. Why am I not on your potential list here? I know you've said you like my posting before but even so that was quite some time ago now.
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Fair enough then. Just thought it was a rather glaring omission.
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Back now. Gave a quick skim of the thread but probably missed a ton of stuff.
I'm not living in a world right now here Moosy is scum. I'm just not. He's town.
OO I'm less sure about, but it doesn't feel right.
marv literally comes into the thread, posts a pile of junk, buggers off for most of the day, saunters back in to drop a handful of extremely unimpressive posts, drops his vote on FF who is never getting lynched today anyone, throws a short list of reads out, none of which are particularly controversial to my eye, and then pisses off again; saying he'll be around in plenty of time for the deadline and he's not goddamn here. And yet somehow "oh he's really, really dangerous, he's a N1 kill for mafia because reasons so we shouldn't lynch". Sorry but what? In what world is this guy a priority N1 kill for mafia?
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EPT
