EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 2
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
I believe GB's case on you? Where is GB's case on you? Where do I believe it? Oo And no, I'm not saying there's a flaw in rayn's argument. I'm just saying "that's the scenario it has to be, if it's not this, he's lieing." Scott is in my town circle for his general posting and ideas that he has. He appears townie to me. Especially the wording issue on GB stood out as a townie thought. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:22 Fidei86 wrote: GB's flip will assist, but on the proviso that he flips Mafia, I think Bresh is the most likely town (other than Rayn). He was continuing to disbelieve GB's claim and was pushing his lynch before rayn's claim. That is a ton more convincing than anything Scott has done, as far as I can see. I get that argumentation. But consider this: Breshke says "Lynch GB!" then GB claims doctor, Breshke says "Lynch GB!" without considering anything else, not even asking questions. I mean he was willing into the un-CC'ed doctor, right? That's not too town indicative so I strongly disagree with your point of saying "Bresh more town than Rayn". Breshke is a null for me currently. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:45 Fidei86 wrote: Ok I think you might be mis-remembering because Breshke wasn't ever on the GB wagon. He claims to have been sleeping, and his vote was on Slam through EOD. But that actually changes my view somewhat - I'd also thought he was on the GB wagon for some reason. In the circumstances where GB already fake claims, mafia Bresh would have nothing to lose by pressuring him, especially because it was reasonable to assume town would not lynch into him without a CC. So, yeah. Bresh loses his town Jesus cred for now. Ah this is true. Was it Slam then who was all the way on GB and still wanted to go after him without any reonsideration? :/ | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 09 2015 02:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: N1 there are only three plausible scenarios, from likeliest to unlikeliest: 1) GlowingBear is mafia and does not get shot 2) I doc GlowingBear (which i did) in case he is just a terrible townie saving his own skin from getting lynched by fakeclaiming -> noone dies -> GB is confirmed town 3) I die -> GB is confirmed mafia. This is huge! I didn't even think of that. If rayn would've died and flipped Doc, GB would've been dead. Tbh I had rayn as the most likely target to go down and was really surprised when I saw yamato flip. I wondered why that was but I completely forgot about that since I looked into Fidei and was busy with the interactions with him. So here we have it quite clearly. This is the setup (as was known before) A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon GB claims to have been roleblocked. However this is easy to do since there is no notification being sent ("Notifications: Roleblocks are not notified."). So the good thing is we have a confirmed scum in rayn vs. GB. The bad thing is that rayn was forced to claim and thus is most likely a dead Simon Tam. Sidenote: this kind of clears me. I was afk for most of D1 and parked my vote on GB. When I realized EoD was later (not midnight but 0.30 AM) I went to bed, leaving my vote on GB who was the main wagon at this point! I'm as confirmed as it gets (or I have the biggest balls that mafia can have for hardcore yolo bussing). Sidenote #2: Where is Breshke? Sidenote #3: Is the spoilered vote count correct? I don't remember Fidei being so early on n00bking. + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2015 07:35 rsoultin wrote: Final Day 1 Votecount n00bking (7): Superbia, Fidei86, raynpelikoneet, yamato77, scott31337, GlowingBear, Alakaslam copcake (2): moosydoosy, nocturnemage GlowingBear (2): boxerfred, n00bking Alakaslam (1): Breshke scott31337 (1): CopCake Not Voting (0): Currently, n00bking was jettisoned out the gorram cargo bay with 7 votes. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
That's my logic. So whoever is not fine with a GB lynch will have to heavily explain why. That would be MoosyDoosy who I think is scum anyways. Also, Superbia didn't cast his vote so far although being in the thread and making long posts. While I have a slight scum lean on Fidei and pushed in that direction, I actually re-thought a bit and I feel like Fidei is not the lynch for the next days. I really wanna see GB + MD flip before I lynch someone else. Thing is I did not look heavily into MoosyDoosy thus far. However since my time to play the game is really limited, I think I'll set "Looking into MD" as a top priority. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 09 2015 22:08 MoosyDoosy wrote: ... "MoosyDoosy is scum but I actually haven't looked at him closely. But I still want to lynch him. By the way I'll be really busy so I'll just say that looking into him is a top priority but I still want to lynch him." You've been accusing me all game of doing drive-by posts when I've actually been questioning people as one of the most active posters?? You're the one doing drive-by posts here l0l. I've not been accusing you, I've been saying my stance towards you rather loudly and I'm clearly saying what I am next up to. I have not voted for you once. You just read that I want to look into you, so if you're town, do you have anything to fear? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 09 2015 23:12 Alakaslam wrote: Boxerfred doing the same textbook scum game with Moosy Care to explain? | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
Dang there's work to do however. Why was MD so sure about his read on rayn? There was no way he could possibly know that rayn is not doc EXCEPT he'd know the setup and he'd know that there is no doc involved. I'm not too sure if that makes sense, it relies on GB giving a fake hint which would be risky as fuck since a CC outside of the setup would've been much more believable than a pure doc cc however. I'm down to a superbia and a MD lynch, still. however all I did all night was lurk and catch up. Another 2 days for me to actually do work. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 05 2015 08:39 Superbia wrote: I think he might do this as town though. In addition I will say this. Do not believe GB is the vigi today. Evaluate him like any other. Do not give him a pass whatsoever. This is from D1 after GlowingBears claim. This post is an answer to rayn who hit the truth in his "claiming vig D1 is a great thing to call out a town role, get a blue kill in exchange for the goon." (though rayn couldn't know that GB is the goon at that point. This post is strange in many ways. Superbia thinks GB might do a (serious!) vigi claim at the very beginning of D1. To me, claiming blue D1 is like the stupidest thing you can do if you truely are a blue. How does Superbia come to that conclusion? The bolded part contradicts the initial meaning of the post ("nah guys GB is stupid not scum") however. It's 100% wishywashy. Also, the initial post (the quote in the quote) - why is Superbia disliking rayn for his reaction to GB? He should be disliking GB for the initial blue shenanigans. This post really feels like it's coming from someone who has to hide something. Time for the tinfoil hat: On September 05 2015 07:33 Superbia wrote: Counterclaim. What if that was a serious response to a claim that Superbia thought was real? Also, WHY did GB claim Vigi if he DID know about the setup? This makes me feel really (really!) unsure if there is indeed a doctor in. We have two people D1 (GB, Superbia) that are willing to think that there is a Vigi in. However, GB claimed Doctor and Rayn claimed Doctor. There was NO counterclaim up to this point, keep that in mind guys! We have two setup slips from GB (Vigi, Doc) and we do not know which one is true. Out of this, I extract two scenarios. a) Doctor setup. Superbia's CC to GB was pure bullshit, making him look townie. b) Vigi setup. Superbia's CC to GB was the truth, making him, well, look townie. c) Vigi + Doc claim was absolutely bullshit (which is the unlikeliest to me) I'm kinda surprised that I come to this conclusion. I'll continue with the setup before going back to Superbia: Vigi setup feels the most likely to me TBH. 2/3 goons in scum - that means the chance that GB would flip scum as goon is higher than in any other setup. Also, we have no DOCTOR counter claimed except the rayn yolo, which was risky but great however it was not a Doctor. Basically, ANY rule could've counterclaimed the doctor that is Vigi, Veteran or Jailkeeper. So GB's claim EoD1 could have played out awesome for scum, ESPECIALLY in Setup B (1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons). Mafia would've exchanged a simple goon with a strong town blue, potentially Jailkeeper. I think at this point I have a pretty good theory who another blue role is but I won't tell since I don't want the guy to get killed. Okay, back to Superbia. As I said above - the behaviour from this post is conclusively townie. Maybe my logic is flawed somewhere, somehow, so please test the waters. Another point that makes Superbia look townie D1 is that he instantly jumped on GB's claim - why would a fellow scum member do this given that he'd know GB's plan of outing a blue? It doesn't make sense. On September 06 2015 05:37 Superbia wrote: 1. Look at opening posts. 2. Look at rayn/yamato interaction. 3. GB (fake) claim. 4. Look at rayn/noobking interaction. Following people: - noobking - copcake - slam Comments on them in near future pls. Although noone brings up the claim after all D1, Superbia does so when NM enters the thread. This could be out of "yo maybe NM replaced a blue and GB's trick might work here" (which I don't think tbh - feels way to unrealistic) or is indeed a "look at this and tell me what you think". Genuine. + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2015 03:35 Superbia wrote: I'm here. Haven't read past few pages. Game kinda feels hard. rayn/yamato still very town. Stuck on moosy's alignment. Something feels off compared to previous game filters. Not sure what, still reading. His associative read triggered all sorts of re-evaluations. Stuck on noobking's alignment. His post style feels different from his mafia post style. Planning on reading into his meta after moosy. Feels like moosy may have spewn him town if moosy is mafia. IDK copcake tied into this. Also stuck on her alignment. Don't know about slam/gb. Both seem very much on the sidelines. bf superlurk. Last game he did this he was PR and got lynched d1 for it. To be honest, I think I may have the PRs down to a small circle already (of either mafia or PR) and he's not among them. Need to hear from people who have played with him. So yeah. Still very much in the process of evaluation. Here for questions and talking if people are around. Specifically the 3 above. Very busy tabbing between game filters though. So don't expect a superquick response. First kind of list post from Superbia. While he's not talking about GB in this, he puts a null/scum lean on MoosyDoosy. Which makes me feel like they have different alignments however I'm not too sure if that holds. Putting this in spoilers to not draw attention from the main parts of the post. Here is more interaction from GB which makes Superbia change his read of scott from town. This looks important: On September 07 2015 03:55 Superbia wrote: Why is scott the lynch for you, GB? On September 07 2015 04:04 Superbia wrote: I had scott as town early but re-viewing his filter idk why. GB can you flesh this out? On September 07 2015 04:04 GlowingBear wrote: Yes I can. I'm going to write a case once I get home. And indeed, Superbia brings up GB's case on Scott: At this point of filter diving, I have to say that Superbia's filter is full of oneliners, full of questions that lead to nowhere and don't do a thing. Not liking this at all. Also, he really likes GB's case on scott (this is one of the rare occasions where Superbia actually says his opinion). Here, he says it even multiple times: On September 07 2015 05:53 Superbia wrote: You guys really think GB's case is terrible? On September 07 2015 05:58 Superbia wrote: I think GB's view on scott is pretty okay. On September 07 2015 06:01 Superbia wrote: I'm actually pretty confused this d1. I usually have a direction I want to push the game, but rayn has kind of taken over the role I usually take in a game. Which leaves me stranded. I'm kind of okay with noobking getting lynched at this point and seeing where he flips takes us. Simply because I don't have any strong mafia reads. My gut would say moosy and go from there, but it may very well be wrong. Scum read on Moosy, again (consistent!). However lateron, Slam calls Superbia out on his growing wishy-washyness: On September 07 2015 06:16 Superbia wrote: I don't fucking know at this point man. Gut says it's one between moosy or copcake. One between scott/GB. And maybe someone like you. But it could also easily be someone like noobking in there. But here's the problem, noobking doesn't look like his mafia meta on this site, but the fact that he has played on other sites (and judging from what he's said, played a lot) makes me believe he can probably play mafia in multiple ways. So I don't know about noobking's alignment. He doesn't really seem to want to contribute at all, which doesn't help me at all. Like the problem is that I'm stucking between worlds right now. And this is mostly caused by the fact that both rayn and yamato believe in a world which I don't really believe in right now. Like they both think copcake is town, and they both think scott is town. I think they're both town and decent/good players. This leaves me confused. This is accurate. How big is the chance the scum!superbia would call out both of his team mates in one post (scott/gb vs. moosy/copcake)? This makes me feel he's town. On September 07 2015 06:35 Superbia wrote: I don't know about GB to be honest, but it's sort of mafia to go afk instead of participate in EoD discussion. I kind of liked what he had to say about scott in his case thingy. You guys disagree. You guys know more about GB-meta. I think I'm keeping my vote on noobking, but if we have a vigi I wouldn't be heartbroken about a GB shot so we can get that shit out of the way. This is huge. Again that makes me feel Superbia is town. I am now at his huge list post and will refer to this in a different post for the sake of readability. tl;dr - I actually think Superbia is not a good lynch this day. He appears townie to me after I fully evaluated his filter. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=82#1628 I've read through and I can see where he comes from. I strongly suggest a MoosyDoosy lynch at this point. His behaviour last night/day was just shit. He's OMGUS'ing wherever he can. He has been scumread by Superbia and Fidei and Rayn and me. This feels like a good thing to start. I'm running out of time again so I have to do the work on MD later this day (however there are 24+ hours to go so I think I'll manage to do so. no promise though). I'm here for another 30 minutes or so. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
"ESPECIALLY in Setup B (1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 2 Mafia Goons). Mafia would've exchanged a simple goon with a strong town blue, potentially Jailkeeper. I think at this point I have a pretty good theory who another blue role is but I won't tell since I don't want the guy to get killed." this part is bullshit since in setup B, there is no JK. that makes the play still powerful though. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 11 2015 17:52 Fidei86 wrote: @bf I'm really not convinced by your case, which seems to boil down to "Superbia said mean things about GB towards EOD but didn't change his vote". Also, is your case on MD "three people are scum reading him"? Thing is that this was supposed to be a case on Superbia however I come to the conclusion he's rather town. Not having the time to check MD yet. Still I suggest from what I've seen and from my gut that the guy is a decent lynch. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
Here is my stance on the game: I'm a low activity poster. I'm aware that it should be easy for scum to set me up for a mislynch based on this. Whenever I come in the thread, I have to read another 20 pages of spammy shit. It would be great if you guys could just get back on track and think about where to locate scum or where to lynch to gain as much information as possible. We are in a situation where it's likely that mafia knows since D2 that they'll lose a member. Since they insta-shot rayn during the night, mafia were SURE that he's the doctor. Right? Right? That makes me feel like the kill itself was a scum slip in terms of the setup. The Doctor setup is likely as fuck. I talked about this already earlier. So what is scum supposed to do (as a team)? They'll try to get a mislynch, they are in desperate need for that especially after rayn flipped VT and not blue. So I'm really interested in who pushes MD and why they do so. Especially if MD is indeed lynched and flips green. At this point I don't think town can come further by evaluating people on scummy behavior but moreso by evaluating people in terms of town indications. It's one way to find indicators for scum alignment to win the game. Another way is to find indicators of town alignment on everyone else. We followed the first way and it got us GB, cool, great! However I think while we should not abandon that completely, we should consider focussing more on town reads. At this point, I have the following town reads: - scott (even forgot why, need to check, however don't have the time) - superbia (reasons stated in my huge case) - Alakaslam. What i remember the most of him is a) his spammy/hard to read playstyle, b) some posts where he points out scummy behaviour of me. since there was no follow up on this, I think it's a town indication. Also he was continuesly willing to hammer GB. Followed by my null reads: - Breshke. Not remembering anything in particular, however he got in a shitflinging discussion with Superbia, derailing shit. Cool - not. - Fidei. Pointed out some scum indicators in his play, he answered genuinely. I think he's not doing enough for town to actually be labeled a townie. Seems more interested in defending/surviving than in actually finding scum. Needs to step up. - CopCake. Don't remember particularly much. Hard to read. Voted with the main wagons. - MoosyDoosy. Need to look into more. I think his flip would give us a lot of information, however it might easily be a mislynch for scum. Good thing would be to stop pressuring him but instead give him some breathing room and let him do town work. Especially his last posts feel a lot like frustrated town. Can't tell. - NocturneMage. Where is this guy? Yes, I don't have scumreads, yolo. Would lynch between MD/NM since Breshke is at least here. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
"Alakaslam. What i remember the most of him is a) his spammy/hard to read playstyle, b) some posts where he points out scummy behaviour of me. since there was no follow up on this, I think it's a town indication. Also he was continuesly willing to hammer GB." I think in this case, the "no follow-up" thing is a town indication because a follow-up would have been the try to set me up for a mislynch in the aftermath of the rayn vs. gb drama. | ||
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