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On August 31 2015 07:51 Fidei86 wrote:
I thought he was/is second towniest and I thought that Mafia would avoid Rels as he was an obvious medic save / watcher target. Obviously I was wrong. Still waiting for my result.
Well Rels claimed cop. That means Rels either shoots Rels or roleblocks him and you watch the mafia shooter or roleblocker or Rels lives and reveals another check 
meh oh well, gotta do this the hard way I guess.
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On August 31 2015 07:54 JudgeJudy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 07:51 Fidei86 wrote:
I thought he was/is second towniest and I thought that Mafia would avoid Rels as he was an obvious medic save / watcher target. Obviously I was wrong. Still waiting for my result. Well Rels claimed cop. That means Rels either shoots Rels or roleblocks him and you watch the mafia shooter or roleblocker or Rels lives and reveals another check meh oh well, gotta do this the hard way I guess.
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Edit
*mafia shoots Rels
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On August 31 2015 07:53 ritoky wrote:
geript didn't deliver kp last night, i rb'd him.
![[image loading]](http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/51b53881eab8ea535c00001f/lebron-splittle-block-gif.gif)
Can everyone confirm that they didn't receive a mason with geript? Just want to make sure we don't need to worry about a scenario where ritoky was roleblocked, preventing his roleblock from going through.
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Just read through every remaining players filter this game. I think I have a preferred lynch for today, but I want to check on a few more things. I'll try to summarize my thoughts, but it's probably going to take a while since there are a lot of angles that I'm looking at.
Stay tuned 
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On August 31 2015 09:25 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 09:15 JudgeJudy wrote:Just read through every remaining players filter this game. I think I have a preferred lynch for today, but I want to check on a few more things. I'll try to summarize my thoughts, but it's probably going to take a while since there are a lot of angles that I'm looking at. Stay tuned Please tell me it's damdred. Just once I want one of my tin foil theories to be correct.
![[image loading]](http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/05/nope.gif)
Afraid not XD
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After the KSC flip, I decided to re-read for a fresh outlook. Prior to looking back through the filters of everyone in this game, something obviously didn't add up. I had town reads on every single player remaining. As we all know, that can't be possible. That means that an assumption that I was making earlier has a whole. I started thinking that I had messed up on my town read on obi or that maybe TT was playing the long game, but as I started putting together a post, neither really stuck and I eventually ditched them.
ritoky was the second to last guy that I read through and I really think there is a compelling argument that proves that he is mafia. Looking through his filter, I was reminded about some of the things that bothered me about his play early on in the game, but got swept under the rug due to the other events of the claim and the cop check that was revealed on him. However, after taking another fresh look, I was able to formulate a case that shows how his play has been so scummy all game long. I've highlighted the major points in bold below.
The Blazinghand Role
During the first two cycles of the game, ritoky role played his Blazinghand role to the max. He claimed that the hosts present a random target to him each cycle. During the day one and day two cycle, he announces his RNG target, proceeds to make a flimsy case against them, and votes for that player at the end of the cycle. I want to highlight how brilliant of a claim this is. The toughest part about playing mafia is providing real opinions that look townie. By claiming that he has to vote for his rng target, he is free to push them the entire cycle, while avoiding the rest of the game. Is there an important lynch going down? Who cares! He is sticking with his random vote.
There is a VERY important distinction that I want to make here. He claims that he must vote for the rng player to receive his upgrade. HE IS NOT REQUIRED TO ACTUALLY PUSH THAT PLAYER FOR A LYNCH. A host does not make a role where they tell you who you need to lynch each cycle. I doesn't happen. It would be pointless for that player to play.
It's one thing for him to have claimed his role, state that he will be forced to vote for a certain player the first two cycles, and then proceed to play the game like a perfectly normal townie, pushing the lynches in the thread that he deems scummy and sharing tons of opinions on the way. What he decided to do instead is proof that he is playing in an anti-town manner.
He votes Fidei right off the bat due to his RNG explanation and proceeds to shape every single post Fidei makes into a mafia read. He never wavers and he sticks with his RNG read throughout the day. I'm not going to spam this post up with blocks of quotes because it is already going to be long enough, but read his filter during the first two cycles. Look at how much focus he puts on this RNG targets and how he is completely oblivious to the rest of the game.
Day two is even worse. He puts together a case on FF, his new RNG target, which he can't honestly push with a straight face. This is a guy who he had a town read on before and now because of the RNG he is suddenly going to tunnel him hard all day. I'll focus more on this part below, but he uses his "RNG" excuse to completely ignore the other lynches, most importantly, the rayn lynch on day two.
It has been a while since day one so the whole Blazinghand random vote nonsense isn't fresh in everyone's mind, but looking back it is beyond scummy. What type of townie decides that they are going to play in their own little world for the first 144 hours of the game, ignoring the first two lynch cycles completely to push lynches that are completely chosen at random? All for a single shot? You could give me three shots and that still wouldn't be worth it. Like I said, he could have simply voted Fidei and FF and pushed legitimate lynches if he wanted, but he chose to use his roleblock as an excuse to distance himself from the game. No townie would do this. He got away with it for a while, but we shouldn't forget about it simply due to the fact that he starting playing once the LT and chez red checks show up.
The Upgrade Conundrum
ritoky later tries to justify his RNG nonsense by claiming that it was part of his upgrade.
On August 29 2015 08:00 ritoky wrote:
yeah i knew my upgrade from the jump.
On August 29 2015 07:49 ritoky wrote:
were other people's upgrades not explicitly stated to them? that's news to me.
The evidence shows that he is lying here. ritoky is the only player in the game to claim to know his upgrade. Every other player that has flipped learned about their upgrade at a later point in time. In fact, the hosts mentioned that the upgrade conditions were going to be sent out to players who failed to meet them so they knew what they were. So that is essentially proof that the upgrades were hidden until night two. ritoky made a mistake here to justify his blatant anti-town claim during the first two cycles and goofed by justifying that he had a reason to do so. It doesn't make sense for 20 different upgrades to work one way, while one other role works a different way. I just don't buy it.
The Lynches
This is the strongest part of my argument so please read this part carefully. I'm focusing on his behavior during the first two cycles of the game because I think that gives us the biggest clue into revealing his alignment.
Day One
Throughout the entire day one cycle, ritoky was on Fidei. That is simply not acceptable from a town standpoint. There is a an incredibly highly contested lynch going on. chezinu and rux were going back and forth the entire cycle. It was tied for large portions of the day. At the end of the cycle, it ended at a 7 to 5 count. Avoiding either wagon and voting for a player that has absolutely no chance to get lynched is really anti-town at that point.
Now at this point I theorize that that mafia team did not realize that chezinu was the traitor. I won't fault ritoky for attempting to save chezinu on day one, because from ritoky's perspective I bet that he thought it was a town vs town wagon. Mafia love to avoid these by voting elsewhere because it doesn't matter to them who flips and they want their vote elsewhere so they don't look bad when the town player flips.
However, what I will fault ritoky for is how he approached the day one lynch. He avoids the single most important talking point during day one, which was ruxxar vs chezinu. He never shares an opinion about chezinu and only brings up ruxxar once, mentioning that he had the largest filter at the time, which is really irrelevant.
On August 21 2015 11:17 ritoky wrote:
dunno bout dat ruxx lynch doe.
the claim blue and fuck off is sketch, if you gotta fuck off you might as well just full claim the role. even vet, if they gonna waste rb + kp on you n1 then that means secure shots + invs + prots + etc. that being said, he didn't really do much scummy imo. he just said a bunch of incoherent stuff. defaulting to RNG or a lurker was probably a superior option.
Do you know when he finally got around to talking about how the rux lynch is bad? AFTER HE FLIPPED TOWN. He brings up the blue claim and mentioned that rux "didn't really do much scummy" after the fact. If he felt that way, why didn't he step in prior to the lynch? Why is he holding back his opinion while voting fidei who has a total of two votes? Mafia love to talk about how a lynch was bad after the fact because they didn't play a part in lynching him. What is important here is that he didn't put any effort into saving him either.
Day Two
Here we have the most important lynch cycle in the game. The mafia PGO is one of the strongest powers they could possibly have at their disposal. I've seen games where a PGO type role has taken out like 5-6 players single handily. Especially in an all blue game where there are so many investigative type roles, the mafia is really going to rely on having rayn take out a couple during the night. This is especially highlighted by the fact that LT tried to suggest players checking rayn on multiple occasions throughout the game. For the mafia to have a decent chance of winning, they needed their PGO to live past day two.
Furthermore, it was a contested lynch. There were several different parties that could have been lynched that day.
Day 2 Votecount
Fecalfeast (2): ritoky, Bill Murray
Rels (5): Chezinu, geript, raynpelikoneet, Lord Tolkien, Tubesock
Yamato77 (3): ObiWanShinobi, yamato77, Rels
Chezinu (1): Breshke
The Shining (1): KelsierSC
raynpelikoneet (5): Damdred, Tictock, Fidei86, The Shining, JudgeJudy
geript (1): Fecalfeast
Compliments to our friend ritoky for the colored day two vote count :p
There were three different individuals that could have easily been lynched towards the end of the cycle. One was mafia and the other two weren't. There was only five votes on Rels, but at least four of them came from flipped mafia so we know they REALLY, REALLY, didn't want to lynch rayn. It's so rare that you see so many mafia voting together, but it really highlights how important the PGO role is to them at this point. They're willing to stick their neck out for a player like rayn who hardly even has any posts.
Now lets look at where ritoky comes in. For the second cycle in a row, he avoids the main bandwagon and votes for a player who simply isn't going to get lynched. There is one rule that always applies to the game of mafia as town. Your vote is your strongest tool. Now two cycles in a row, ritoky has chosen to completely discard his vote, while avoiding the topics that are so vital to discuss. Can you envision a scenario where a town ritoky has no meaningful input on the lynch for two cycles in a row? I can't.
At the end of day one, ritoky makes a list post containing his mafia reads. He mentions that ritoky is his NUMBER TWO scum read at that point, behind fidei. This is what he brings up:
"rayn - subs in and does balls. not town rayn, maybe cuz sub and not initially in the game but he is giving 0 shits so pressure him until he does or lynch him."
Surely he will bring him up again during day two right? He moves off fidei so in theory, rayn should be his number one read. He doesn't even mention rayn again until rayn flipped. This was the guy that ritoky thought was mafia. Yet when it comes to actually lynching rayn, he wants know part of it. What I found really interesting is that at one point TT asked about who would be interested in moving over to rayn. ritoky actually quotes this post and calls TT town for it, but he doesn't even reference rayn in the process.
Instead rayn is voting for FecalFeast per his "rng role". But guess what? FECALFEAST WAS ON HIS TOWN LIST. So not only is he passing up the opportunity to push his mafia read in rayn, he is pushing a player he stated was town prior to receive FF as his "rng" target.
Day Three
I don't have much to say about day three. At this point, LT is already looking really bad so it's pretty irrelevant whether or not ritoky voted him because there was the red check out here. There wasn't a whole lot on LT on day one and two. ritoky listed LT on his town list for the vig claim and suggested that he will re-evaluate later on in the game. Once rayn flips he includes Lt in a process of elimination list and eventually ties him and chezinu together, but I think we all did at that point.
The Alignment Check
We are at a point in the game where we need to focus on behavioral analysis, not blue roles. This comes up nearly every themed game where mafia wins. If you go back the last twenty large themed games, I bet at some point the host chastises the players for focuses on roles so much, rather than the behavior that makes players mafia.
You can't rely on the blue roles to win the game. Mafia is a game of imperfect information. As town, we don't know all the tools that mafia has to work with. We already know that mafia has a godfather and a framer. We don't know if they have a second godfather or framer ability, even if it is one-shot. We don't know if mafia has a busdriver. We don't know if mafia has some type of mirror role. What we do know is that mafia has at least one other role that messes with cop checks because FecalFeast's check did not resolve correctly.
Something important to remember is that the framer is alive on night two at the time of the check. Now mafia has two ways they can use the framer. They can either frame a town player to look mafia or they can frame a mafia player two look town.
Try putting yourself in mafia's shoes at that point to think about how you would use your role on night two. What is the best case scenario for mafia framing a town player? A cop happens to check them, they come up red and the town player is lynched. That's great, but it's only one town dead. Now what is the best case scenario for a mafia framing a mafia player? The mafia player gets checked a town and is essentially confirmed for the rest of the game. That is how you win a game. More often than not, town will stick with the check because it's the simplest explanation. Think about the swing between a mafia ritoky getting checked as mafia and a mafia ritoky getting checked as town. If he comes up red, the game is essentially over. rayn is dead. tube has a nuking coming his way. LT is in an awful position beyond redeeming. The fourth mafia would really be their only hope. That's why I think it's so likely that the mafia used their godfather to cover, rather than to frame on night two.
If ritoky is mafia, I think it is very likely that he would have been the mafia's choice for the cover. He came out looking bad after the rayn lynch so he would need some way to confirm himself, but he is a decent player who can carry the game if he does get checked.
I'm not saying that the check is completely invalid and that we should ignore it. What I am saying is that if you look at all the evidence that suggests that ritoky is mafia, a single blue role interaction isn't enough to warrant the assumption that he is town. Behavior is far more important and his behavior points towards him being scum. Even Rels, the guy who checked ritoky had him at the top of his lynch list prior to death. That shows how little faith Rels had in the check.
The HTS Kill
If you're going to argue that ritoky is town based on him being the target of the framer being so unlikely, you can't ignore the fact that we have a claimed watcher who witnessed only ritoky visiting HTS on her death. Now I am be biased here, but personally I think HTS was a miserable framer target. She was giving opinions and seemed invested in the lynch. I'd say she was in my top two town reads by night one. But that is beside the point.
Fidei claimed that ritoky was seen as the only player visiting ritoky on night one. Half the Sky died that night, which means either ritoky had visited her and targeted her with a kp or the godfather happened to carry out the kill. That means there was a 50/50 chance that the godfather did not carry out the kill on HTS, which would mean ritoky did. Keep in mind that I'm not basing my read on ritoky on this alone. Solving the games by blues is not a reliable way to win the game as I mentioned earlier. However, this simply strengthens the case against him.
In fact, I'm not even arguing that ritoky didn't roleblock HTS. Mafia roleblock their night hit targets all the time and HTS would have been a good choice as one of the strongest town players. If mafia were going to RB HTS in her death, they wouldn't send the godfather to kill her because that would mean both ritoky and the godfather would visit her, while the other hit would be carried out by a non-godfather. Like I said, this part is just speculation and the strength of the argument lies with the actual behavior above.
Some people will argue that it doesn't make sense for ritoky to claim the roleblock on HTS because it will make him look bad. I don't put much merit into this arguement. First off, mafia don't want to lie unless they absolutely need to. If he claims to have not visited HTS and gets outed by a role, he is done for. In fact, that exact scenario could have happened this game with fidei's watcher claim. Think to yourself, what is more important? Losing a bit of town cred that nobody will care about in the long run or taking a gamble by fake claiming an action that will almost certainly get you killed if you ever get caught.
The Roleblocker Claim
I wouldn't be surprised if ritoky was a roleblocker. That doesn't mean he is a town roleblocker though. Mafia almost certainly have a roleblocker in this setup. The problem is that he hasn't used his ability in any way that benefits town. He hasn't roleblocked any kp. He hasn't roleblocked any meaningful mafia night actions. Instead, he is roleblocking the town watcher and the claimed third party survivor. Think about it. You have a role that can be used to not only block the mafia kp, but also confirm the player who you blocked as mafia because the mafia kp is missing. Would you ever consider roleblocking damdred, the guy who has about the worst chance of carrying out the mafia kp in the game?
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia didn't also have a factional roleblocker ability to use on top of that. In a setup where there are so many blues it almost seems like a necessity. I've seen mafia get two different rbing powers in a ton of games. If I remember correctly, I think one of onegu's previous themed setups even had the factional roleblocker.
The Yamato Shot
I put a large amount of thought into this part. An argument for why ritoky could be town is "why did he shoot yamato" and "why did he claim the shot". I can only theorize at this part because I don't have complete knowledge of the setup or anything. I think he claimed the shot for similar reasons to claiming the HTS visit. If you shoot a player who looks terrible, no big deal, people will get over it. If you get tracked or watched to a kill and let town assume it was a mafia kp, then you are in hot water. He already claimed in the thread that he had a kp to use, so he had to shoot someone at that point. I'm not going to argue that yamato was a bad shot because I could have seen myself doing the same thing, but that doesn't mean it automatically makes him town. Mafia could have just as easily shot yamato because he looked so anti-town at that point.
You may ask, why claim the shot to begin with? Why not keep it hidden and shoot someone better? My best guess is for town cred. If you're taking out the guy who is likely going to be the topic of discussion and the lynch the next day, you come out looking good. ritoky missed out on his chance to earn town cred with the rayn lynch so there is no way he would survive a lynch against someone like Rels, myself, TT, or fidei. This was his best chance at using a confirmible night action to make himself look good. Remember, he didn't know he was shooting the jester. He probably thought he was shooting a trolly town player and was going to come out looking good in the process.
"I'm Confirmed!"
During the last 48 hours, ritoky has brought up how he is "confirmed" because he launched the nuke on chezinu during day two. At this point, a mafia ritoky needs to cash that nuke in for as much town cred as possible, because if he is the only mafia remaining, he is going to end up in a 2v1 LYLO situation against several other players who are looking rather good at that point.
The fact is, mafia almost certainly did not know chezinu was a traitor on day two. Chezinu did not receive his ability to initiate a quicktopic with a player until night two. How else would the mafia team have known chezinu was mafia at that point? I suppose a rolecop or weird other ability that we don't know about, but the simplest answer is that they didn't.
Yet here ritoky is calling himself confirmed town numerous times for nuking a player, which mafia didn't know was mafia. There isn't any town cred to be earned here because in fact, he was likely nuking a player he thought was a trolly town. Lynching chezinu isn't going to earn you any town credit either. He was a dead man with or without your claimed roleblock. If you wanted to earn town cred, you should have played the game when it mattered during the first and second cycle.
Conclusion
ritoky is mafia
There is little evidence that supports the idea that ritoky is a town player attempting to solve the game. He uses his RNG role as an excuse to avoid the major discussion topics during the first two cycles. Rather than voting for his RNG target and playing the game normally, he proceeds to tunnel his RNG targets the entire cycle while ignoring the actual lynch and failing to share opinions about the players that are about to be lynched. He attacked the rux lynch after rux had already flipped town. He listed rayn as one of his scum reads, but never mentions him again until after the flip. He claims that he was acting this way because of an upgrade, but his role does not work the same as every other player in the game. A cop check alone is not enough to justify his behavior, especially in a setup with a flipped framer. He was seen as the only player to visit HTS on day one. He brags about how lynching the traitor should confirm him as town when in reality it is meaningless. You may think to yourself that there is a post or role interaction that makes you think ritoky is town, but you need to look at the big picture. I'd be lying if I said I was 100% myself. I'd feel like a complete idiot if I was wrong after spending so much time on this. However, one minor detail here or there doesn't outweigh the fact that he has been playing like mafia all game long. I think the best shot we have at ending this game today is to lynch ritoky.
The court has spoken.
+ Show Spoiler +I know someone is probably going to quote this and type "TL;DR;", but please take the time to read this. I just spent like 3 and a half hours on it. It will probably take you 10 minutes to read through. Don't skim it. Read through every part and please comment on what you think. There is nothing more frustrating than putting together a large case and then having it ignored by everyone else.
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On August 31 2015 11:34 ritoky wrote:
Oh goodie, something to tear to shreads.
Go for it. Just make sure to address everything and not cherry pick.
I've spent enough time on mafia today though, so I'll catch up with the thread and respond tomorrow afternoon after work.
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On August 31 2015 13:42 geript wrote:
Either way, if I lose my power, it's kinda moot. I guess there's a theoretical possibility that someone visited OWS before but idk who that'd be. His role does sound kinda mafia oriented considering the setup but eh. I still want JJ and TT to full claim if they haven't already. I don't really remember what if anything they've claimed. [/QUOTE]
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I'm a Mad Hatter. Not sure if TT has revealed more than that pic about his role. Really disappointed that I don't have something that I could put to better use, but it is what it is. Claiming whether I still have my bomb or where it currently may be doesn't have much benefit, so I'll leave it at that.
Now on to the ritoky stuff...
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On August 31 2015 22:48 geript wrote:
that's not exactly reassuring JJ
meh claiming a role that "reassures" you is not exactly on my to-do list.
On August 31 2015 17:15 Tictock wrote:
Obi is still floating in null land for me, nothing to truely push me either way on him. I don't like the fact that he waited so long with his nuke, but w/e trying to read alignment out of that is probably too deep in wifom to mean anything. Something about the way he is interacting and posting today has me leaning a little more town on him.
Besides, I honestly don't see getting much information out of his lynch.
Uhh aren't we long past the point of lynching for information? I mean there is probably only one mafia left. Who cares if the lynch doesn't provide information if the game simply ends?
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On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
Let's begin with the easiest and work our way to the even easier to dispel about this:
1) I am green checked by a confirmed cop in a game that has demonstrated no real inclination of having a framer. In the event you believe there is 1 mafia left, that mafia is in fact a ROLEBLOCKER not a FRAMER: how do we know this? Fidei was ROLEBLOCKED and I did not do it. Even moreso you have to believe that I was framed specifically on N2 in which Rels checked me, which is already an unlikely rabbit hole you're going down. Should we continue or is it already over? Pretty sure it's already over, but let's go for argument's sake.
Err I think you refuted this yourself later on, but yeah tube the framer was still alive on night two. I don't really have any more response to this part because it is speculation. I think the framer was likely used as a cover, rather than a frame and I think the other points that I have made outweigh the low odds that the cop happened to check you that night.
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
2) I shot 3p, nuked mafia, lynched 2 of the 3 mafia. Thank you for listing my pro-town achievements thus far this game and giving me no credit for it. You make a big deal out of my day 2 vote, when I am RNG voting for an upgrade so I fail to see any point about that. Day 3 is irrelevant cuz you see I am townie. And about "ritoky never does meaningless stuff for two cycles"; bro go read my games I am useless a lot longer some times.
Well no offense, but those pro-town achievements are rather lame. LT had a red check on him. Everyone (except geript who was off in Lalaland) was voting LT so you can't exactly hand out gold stars to everyone. Same thing with chezinu. There was a red check on him and he was obvious mafia at that point. Every single player (lol except our good friend geript) was voting him. You nuked the traitor on day two and I'll give you a thumbs up for that, but like I said, mafia likely didn't know he was mafia on day two, so any town cred is null and void there as well.
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
3) Your entire yamato thing literally says "he shot someone that was good for town, but i think he is mafia thus did it for town cred". You're literally calling me scummy for something you're admitting was town.
Naw I'm not calling you scummy there. I'm saying that shooting the troll isn't something that mafia is incapable of doing. It didn't lead my to my mafia verdict, it simply wasn't enough to get me to conclude town.
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
4) I don't know what you're talking about with this 1 person 1 kp stuff. I have played MULTIPLE games where 1 player is capable of delivering all KP, and to think that anyone OTHER THAN THE UNTRACKABLE DUDE was delivering KP prior to his death is plain naive thinking.
The vast majority work where 1 player carries out 1 kill each.
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
5) I am confirmed
No?
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
6) As for the no evidence of me solving the game, I would like to refer you to me doing vote analysis, PoE, attempting to discern roles, speculating about cult, being generally confused about what is going on, and such from my filter. You obviously missed those posts when you contrived this mess.
Coloring the lynch votes can be useful, but it's not like anything new was brought to the table. Pointing out that the rayn voters look good and the non-rayn voters look bad isn't a huge revelation. Sure there may have been a few things, but not enough.
On August 31 2015 11:55 ritoky wrote:
We are done here, your arguments are all pretty meh other than I roleplayed rather than played day 1 and some of day 2, which is a valid criticism of myself and many others this game.
The problem is that is the basis of my case. There is a difference between roleplaying by throwing a gif in each post and roleplaying by RNGing your vote for the first two cycles of the game, tunneling those players to death, and not doing much of interest otherwise.
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On August 31 2015 13:16 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 13:12 ritoky wrote:On August 31 2015 13:11 Damdred wrote:
What scares me is if geript is scum rb and the mason qt was his upgrade as I don't think another one besides mine has been confirmed by both parties then you have to believe there's 2 mafia. geript 100% didn't deliver kp last night. that part is true 6 mafia+traitor +jester seems a bit weird but there are a ton of cops.
This math doesn't add up....rayn, tube, and LT have flipped mafia, chez has flipped traitor.
If it were 6 mafia + traitor + jester that would mean there are 3 mafia alive.
The scenarios we need to worry about are either:
4 mafia + traitor + jester (1 mafia remaining)
or
5 mafia + traitor + jester (2 mafia remaining)
I'm kinda thinking the setup is 4 mafia + traitor + jester, mostly because I would really struggle to point out two mafia, although onegu's previous 21 (22?) player blue setup had six mafia so it is not out of the question.
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On August 31 2015 15:00 geript wrote:
Looking at the votes, the most notable IMO is TT's d1 vote. For playing as well as he has, he ended up throwing away his vote on a random person. That's kinda incongruous with the rest of his play.
Why does this argument apply to TT, but not ritoky? ritoky did this two cycles in a row. First with fidei who had only two votes and then with FF who had only two votes.
Take a look at this case against FF. He essentially posts a bunch of quotes that make FecalFeast look town, then posts a series of quotes where he could possibly be mafia, and states that he should be considered for a vote.
Later on in the day he eventually posts FF as town in his list post, but stays on him.
On August 23 2015 13:05 ritoky wrote:
rayn - subs in and does balls. not town rayn, maybe cuz sub and not initially in the game but he is giving 0 shits so pressure him until he does or lynch him.
In the same post he calls rayn mafia. Yet rather than push his mafia read, he never brings him up again, despite quoting a post that essentially asks "who wants to switch over to rayn?" and instead keeps his vote on a player he doesn't even think is mafia during the most important cycle in the game. All for this "upgrade"?
On August 31 2015 13:04 geript wrote:
So I'm guessing it's 1 mafia and 1-2 3P, kinda depends. Ritoky greencheck makes him 99% town. Damdred is essentially 3p. My greencheck makes me 99% town.
Could you explain where you came up with 99% for ritoky's green check? As I explained earlier in my large post, mafia almost certainly benefits from using their framer as a cover rather than a frame. Do you disagree with this analysis?
So say mafia decides to frame one of their members from the check.
Here are the players that are alive at that point.
The Shining
Rels
Fidei86
Yamato77
Breshke
geript
Damdred
JudgeJudy
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky
Tictock
Tubesock
Fecalfeastt
Lord Tolkien
Chezinu
Beneather
KelsierSC
You can eliminate players that we have confirmed as non-mafia because like I said, there is a very high likleyhood that there are using the cover:
Fidei86
geript
Damdred
JudgeJudy
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky
Tictock
Tubesock
Lord Tolkien
Chezinu
We can also eliminate chezinu because mafia likely isn't aware that he is the traitor. We can also eliminate tube because he is already covered by his godfather passive. If you are town you can also eliminate yourself (I've removed JJ in this example, anyone else would remove themselves). I doubt they would frame damdred as town if he is indeed third party. You can decide for yourself whether or not you want to eliminate him from the possible mafia list. Since geript and ritoky was checked on the same night, you can eliminate one of the two since the framer can't frame both at once. I've chosen to eliminate geript because I think it is more likely he is town. Finally, you can eliminate any players in the group that you think are almost certainly town. I'm still town reading fidei and TT pretty strongly so I'm going to remove them. If you want to play it safe, you can leave those in.
Group A:
Lord Tolkien
Group B:
ObiWanShinobi
Ritoky
We know there is 1 mafia in group A. Now lets say there is 1 mafia in group B . Suppose the framer flips a coin between framing the unflipped mafia or the flipped one. If it lands heads they frame LT, if it lands tails, they frame the mafia in group B. Now we also know that ritoky was watched at the HTS kill which is a 50/50 chance of the godfather carrying out a kill. In essence, those two coinflips cancel themselves out. So you're left with a 50/50 within group B, which is far closer than the 99% you suggest. Even if you frame completely at random it isn't 99%. You can apply a different type of analysis (like making assumptions that mafia wouldn't frame the same guy they are shooting) and the pool still ends up rather small.
I know there are a lot of assumptions in this thinking, but again. I'm not using this to prove that ritoky was framed. I'm simply saying that the other evidence is strong enough that a cop check like this doesn't automatically eliminate him from consideration. At some point in a themed game you need to rely on behavioral analysis rather than blue roles.
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On September 01 2015 05:32 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2015 05:22 Damdred wrote:
Anyway I just want to hear why tt claims he doesn't have an active ability but visited people last night.
And who he visited and why ?
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On September 01 2015 05:19 ritoky wrote:@JJ you believe all of this? Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 12:35 ritoky wrote:
Just so everyone is clear, this is what you have to believe to not see me as confirmed, but as mafia:
1) Mafia elected to frame 1 of their own players (me) on night 2 which just so happened to be the night that a confirmed cop checked me.
2) This is a game is a game in which 1 kp is delivered by 1 player and no more.
3) The mafia chose on night 1....NIGHT 1 to NOT use their unseeable player to carry KP. Specifically to the most widely town read person in the game.
4) I would use factional KP on an afk/uninterested player in yamato AND claim it; rather than using it on a vocal player who is against me.
If you believe all of that, then you can call me not confirmed town. That is literally the world you have to live in. If so, I don't really know what to say to you. You're living in the world of 1% rather than the world of 99%. The entire premise of what you're saying is that the game mechanically doesn't function the way in which most mafia games function and that a green check was framed on the night he happened to be investigated. If that is where you want your head to be I can't help you this game or you're not town. The confluence of events you're believing is so tinfoil.
The "99%" is a number made up on the spot. Even if tube decided to frame someone at random, excluding himself and his shot, it's going to come out much higher that that.
I've already explained where I think the pool of framer targets was by eliminating certain players and that the odds that you were selected is somewhere between 25%-50%. I admit that this means that the check is legit more often than not, but that is not the only factor my read is based on. The behavioral stuff suggests that you were mafia and relying on a blue role to determine your alignment was town didn't outweigh the other points. There is essentially a coin flip that says you were framed on night two and a coin flip that says you killed HTS on night one. They cancel themselves out in my mind so I'm sticking with the behavioral stuff. I don't doubt that tube carried out an untrackable kill on night one, but there were two kills. I'm saying there is a 50% chance he killed HTS and a 50% chance he killed wave. Like I said, I'm eliminating the blue stuff completely. On day one you pushed fidei all cycle long as part of your role, even though you didn't need to. On day two, you pushed FF via RNG admitted that rayn was probably mafia, yet your vote remained on FF and you didn't bring him up again. You say your upgrade worked in a way that you had to vote these players, but everyone else has a role that works differently and even if that role is real, there is no way that giving up your vote for the first two days is worth it.
I'm obviously not going to be able to convince you that you're mafia. Either you aren't or you will deny it to the end. I'm mostly hoping to hear from others. Obi says he likes the case, but hasn't shared what he likes or dislikes. TT agrees as well but hasn't posted much this cycle. I have no idea where Fidei is at. The cycle is half over so we really need to hear from everyone at this point. :/
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On September 01 2015 06:12 ritoky wrote:
2) mechanics that don't make sense -> most games i have played and a past onegu game have allowed multiple kp to be delivered by a solitary player so you're believing this game is different from others.
But that's not true. I checked.
In Ippo, Holyflare was the godfather who happened to be untrackable, but three different players from the mafia team had to carry out the kp to three different individuals. Sure, HF could shoot a single player for "12KP", but that's only because Ippo had a HP based system that doesn't translate to this game.
What other onegu game are you referring to?
On September 01 2015 06:12 ritoky wrote:
5) since day 2 has ended ritoky has done nothing but be town in every way possible including being green checked, shooting a 3p lurker and outting to dunk a mafia, but give him 0 credit and only focus on first 2 days.
Well like I said, LT and chezinu had red checks on them. If you get credit for those lynches, then everyone does (except geript). I liked the yamato shot. I'll give you that. But again, I don't see it out of the question for a mafia player to shoot a non-mafia yamato.
On September 01 2015 06:32 ritoky wrote:
@JJ who are your bombs on?
Forgive me for not informing the player who I think is mafia the answer to that 
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On September 01 2015 06:58 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2015 06:46 JudgeJudy wrote:On September 01 2015 06:12 ritoky wrote:
2) mechanics that don't make sense -> most games i have played and a past onegu game have allowed multiple kp to be delivered by a solitary player so you're believing this game is different from others. But that's not true. I checked. In Ippo, Holyflare was the godfather who happened to be untrackable, but three different players from the mafia team had to carry out the kp to three different individuals. Sure, HF could shoot a single player for "12KP", but that's only because Ippo had a HP based system that doesn't translate to this game. What other onegu game are you referring to? On September 01 2015 06:12 ritoky wrote:
5) since day 2 has ended ritoky has done nothing but be town in every way possible including being green checked, shooting a 3p lurker and outting to dunk a mafia, but give him 0 credit and only focus on first 2 days. Well like I said, LT and chezinu had red checks on them. If you get credit for those lynches, then everyone does (except geript). I liked the yamato shot. I'll give you that. But again, I don't see it out of the question for a mafia player to shoot a non-mafia yamato. On September 01 2015 06:32 ritoky wrote:
@JJ who are your bombs on? Forgive me for not informing the player who I think is mafia the answer to that I also checked, in ippo HF delivered 2 kp on the final night and most nights of the game. I am sitting here asking about your bombs because you have potential auto if you have a bomb on OWS and me. I have a PoE of you, OWS, and TT. Lynching you would kill 2 of the 3 people in my PoE and both of the ones in yours. If the game doesn't end then town lynches TT and wins.
Well HF was a vig so that's a separate role. I'm referring to mafia kp. HF wouldn't have been allowed to shoot player A with 6 mafia kp and player B with 6 mafia kp.
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On September 01 2015 07:27 Damdred wrote:
The mafia kp in ippo was dividable but all of them could be carried by one person if desired
Yes, one person could carry all 30 to a single target based on the description in the mafia qt, but could HF have carried 12 to one player , 12 to a second player, and 6 to a third player? Based on the description, it doesn't seem like it, unless you found something that I'm missing.
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On September 01 2015 08:30 Tictock wrote:
Also @JJ
I'm wondering why you think geript is more likely town than rit.
I mean I get your case on rit, but there seems to be a lot more solid reasons to think Rit is possibly town than geript who basically just has the greencheck.
geript has some pretty strong opinions throughout the game which I have liked. I found his chez comments sheep worthy on day one and even though mafia probably wouldn't have known chezinu was the traitor, the logic was sound which shows he was scum hunting. Plus, ritoky has a claimed roleblock on him last night. That means that either ritoky is lying and is scum buddies with geript, which seems unlikely or there is a second mafia alive that is carrying out kp so it wouldn't make sense to lynch geript anyways.
You haven't exactly commented on my case aside from stating that it is good. What do you like about it, what don't you like? It's really frustrating to put in 4 hours of my time on that only to have fidei say "I agree" and disappear, you to say "I agree", but lets lynch obi, and for obi to agree any never really say anything. :/
Back to obi, you said you weren't sure about lynching him because it wouldn't give us any information. Why is information relevant at the point in the game where it likely ends if he flips mafia?
On September 01 2015 10:21 Tictock wrote:
JJ is an interesting person to consider lynching. Looking back at the way D2 ended it seems even more off to me the way JJ switched onto rayn. The fact that he had no thread presence at all that EoD yet jumped on rayn when he was pretty much for sure getting lynched (nobody could know Rels would swap to Yam) yet had time to find that gif actually looks really bad to me now that I've thought about it more in depth. Other than hand though JJ has been pretty towny.
My lack of thread presence at the deadline wasn't by choice I assure you. Unfortunately I'm at work at that time and to be honest, I'm lucky that I managed to sneak out of a meeting in time to even make it. Look at that on the flip side. I didn't need to show up at that point. I wasn't in the thread so as mafia I could have simply just never moved my vote and nobody would have been the wiser that I was actually around. As for the gif, that takes about 15 seconds. Just type "finger cross gif" in google and bam you've got one
You say that rayn was pretty much for sure getting lynched, but remember the vote was 5-5 before the Rels unvote. With the rate that votes were coming in it was incredibly unclear who would have had the tiebreaker at that point. Tube showed up out of nowhere to try to hammer rels. Out of the five votes on Rels, four were from mafia. They were going all in to save rayn the pgo. My vote ensured that there was no tiebreaker because I hammered rayn. In what world does four mafia all vote one way, only to have the fifth mafia show up and ruin all their plans, not only killing off the pgo, but making the remaining players look absolutely terrible. While I couldn't have predicted Rels would swap to Yam, I could have reacted to it by following him. The vote was cast at the start of :59 so I had most of that minute to decide. I saw the yamato anti-nuke and the self vote, I did a quick count and realized my vote back to yam would lynch Rels who I thought was town so I stayed.
It's kind of silly that you say I've been pretty towny and then pick out the towniest thing I've done all game as the one detractor.
On September 01 2015 09:01 Tictock wrote:
Why would you claim this?
Like it was pretty unlikely that you were going to be lynched, and now it's pretty unlikely that your going to be NK'd. Seems like claiming nullifies any potential benefit of your role whole also providing a good excuse to survive.
Maybe I'm just not familiar with how MH's work. Is it possible to lose your bomb if your current target dies?
It seems like we're at the point where everyone should roleclaim. I didn't reveal my bomb location so mafia is still in the dark with that respect. Yes, I lose my bomb if my target is lynched. I get it returned if they are shot.
I don't exactly need an excuse to survive when the game is likely over today or the next day or two loll. We have a claimed watcher, a claimed roleblocker with a green check, and another claimed green check. XD
On August 31 2015 10:33 ritoky wrote:
eh i looked at TT in the voting thread and i should probably read his filter. votes all over the place on d2, swaying more than pretty much any1 else. votes later on LT. doesn't outright vote chez, votes me with enthusiasm, immediately accepts rels claim of green check and goes to chez, now doesn't like the green check.
ugh i guess i really need to buckle down and read all 3 of these filters and solve this game....
Anyone notice how this guy is totally not solving the game this cycle? :/
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On August 31 2015 11:45 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2015 11:34 ritoky wrote:
Oh goodie, something to tear to shreads. I'm listening. (Btw, that was a very entertaining case to read. There were a bunch of bits that I liked but we'll see how this plays out.)
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You have time to comment now obi?
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On August 31 2015 10:54 ritoky wrote:
honestly, after reading his filter and looking at his voting....it will be very hard for me to lynch judge...i would put judge behind geript in my town list which is like
ritoky
geript
judge
fid
the swap to rayn after tube had already moved....so compelling....ugh. maybe i will just RB judge tonight to resolve his alignment cuz i don't see a compelling reason to lynch him...
which leaves me @ OWS and TT....or the good ole lynch the survivor, try to block a kp, and see who they kill sending us potentially to lylo if 2 strat....but fuck that strat.
On September 01 2015 14:05 ritoky wrote:
here's my last bit of shit until i come back to vote:
JJ - wrong, pushing wrong for bad and falsified reasons, voted at 59 on rayn wagon but found gif in time; is wrong, what is end game when i flip town if mafia? not trying to get read on anyone else, claimed MH aka don't lynch me bro role
How did you go from this to this? Is it just the case on you?
The gif thing is meaningless. I don't see why that matters. I showed up to vote rayn when it was 5 to 5 and was going to come down to a tiebreaker, seconds after tube just showed up to try to hammer rels. I remained on rayn when Rels unvoted to ensure rayn stayed lynched. As for the hatter, it shouldn't deter you at all. If you think I'm mafia then you lynch me. If you think I'm town then you don't lynch me. Being a MH shouldn't impact your decision at all. I am trying to read other people. I've read through obi's filter like five times by now. That's painful to do -_-
I'm honestly putting effort into trying to figure out this game. I spent four hours on the case against you. I'm sorry if I'm wrong, but after seeing kel flip green and then have the nerve to call us all retarded, it made me really angry. Am I positive that you're mafia? Not really....but at least nobody can say I didn't try.
obi totally ditching me kinda strikes a nerve. He was talking about he was looking through filters, yet comes up with nothing. He leaves himself open for both the ritoky lynch and TT lynch.
Assuming one mafia remaining, right now I'd put you at 65% mafia, obi 25%, TT and damdred 5% each and, geript and fidei less than 1%.
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On September 01 2015 14:13 geript wrote:
I'm just curious. But like none of us have take a look at fido at all. Is that just because the watcher claim?
Watcher claim, was on the correct side of the rayn lynch, active throughout the entire game (with the exception of today). Has a couple of posts that kinda scream towny and are well thought out.
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