Either I missed something, or he's almost certainly scum.
TL Mafia LXXI: Gaiden - Page 7
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Either I missed something, or he's almost certainly scum. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 14 2015 16:08 Vivax wrote: Scott31337 is a fair shot at scum, though probably the least certain of my scum reads.What about Scott, EBH, WoS? For clarity I actually see a chance he's town even though his case was sketchy as shit, so deifinitely the lowest of my priorities. I don't really know about XEliteBlueHunter69X or WaveofShadow, though I'm a little inclined to think that WaveofShadow is town? I think his early read on Clarity_nl and how he reacted to the pressure felt a little bit towny. Please talk to me about ruXxar. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 14 2015 16:16 Vivax wrote: How about the part where he made an associative scumread that two people are scum, but only scumread one of them? And explained it by saying he thought they could be masons, but continued to only scumread one of them after he said he had realized this?I just skimmed a bit of his himalayas filter for the first time and I actually think he's townish now. How about the part where this is also different from his play as town in Newbie Mafia 11 (it was his first game ever, look at the later parts of the game for a better representation)? How about the fact that he replaced into Himalayas after the game was well under way, and only towards the end of the game joined the discussion and posted more casually (more like he is in this game)? | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
This does suggest that he is town, but I don't think it's anywhere near as strong as the reasons to scumread him. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 14 2015 16:25 Vivax wrote: Are you talking about the start of his play in Himalayas, or the end? Or did you read all of it?His tone is way different. He's more earnest and synthetic in his posting in himalayas, you see that in the way he posts he cares much more about his appeareance. I doubt you will be able to sway me with what you say. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 14 2015 16:33 Vivax wrote: Well, I would really like you to read the end of his Himalayas filter. While the beginning does seem a bit reserved, in the middle he seems much more free in his thoughts, and by the end he is very conversational, free to share his thoughts, and has strong opinions. He wasn't hesitant to disagree and argue with people. To me, the confidence he displayed at the end of his scum game seems very similar to his play here.At least we've arrived at the stage where the politicians get NKd, so that should narrow down options between marv/HF/Harkon. I don't even want to bother about who of them is mafia until a few get killed. No, I'm lazy atm. Just skimmed. I'd like to know why your play has been so unremerkable this game thoughh. You only started to put in some degree of effort now. And his play here doesn't look like his town play, either. As town, he posted about a lot of different things and was always jumping all over the place. Here, early on he was extremely focused on certain reads, but didn't bother trying to explain them. In Student Mafia 11, ruXxar was posting interesting thoughts and always had a drive to solve the game, which I don't always see here. I think that my read on ruXxar is extremely strong. It's a short read, the important part is the inconsistency with regards to Clarity_nl and Holyflare, and how his explanation doesn't fit. Meanwhile, I really don't see how his meta and tone really indicates that he is town here, in fact I feel that it slightly suggests that he is mafia, but either way I think that this is a somewhat unreliable way of reading ruXxar. I'm not here to talk about myself, but because you asked: + Show Spoiler + You know I've been extremely lazy. Remember Carol of the Bells, where I basically afk'd through Day 1, Night 1, and most of Day 2? There were many, many worse games since then. Notable games are Down Under Mafia (both games), and Guardians of the Galaxy. Every single large game I've played in, I haven't been able to keep up at the start of the game. You'd think I would learn, but I haven't. Also, I'm home from college, now. I only started playing mafia when I was in college. I've been spending time with my family and my friends here, and this makes my schedule a lot harder to fit mafia in to. Since I returned from college, I've only played two games. One as a smurf (and I smurfed for two reasons: one, to try a new playstyle, and two, to play at a lesser standard (primarily activity). I felt that playing as a smurf would be a sign that I wasn't able to play to my full abilities, but many people just said "why didn't you play on your main account?", so I did. The other game was a fairly low-posting newbie game, and I was mafia. I just posted late and didn't bother arguing or interacting as much, so it didn't take as much time. Plus, it was a low-posting mini game. Then, I get into this large-game spamfest..... Anyway, I've talked to rsoultin about all of the above, so she can confirm it if necessary. Furthermore, I've had some real life issues since the game began. They aren't huge issues, but emotionally and mentally I'm a very weak person. If you don't believe it, ask rsoultin, or look at my coaching QT from Newbie Mafia 61, where I made a million posts of whining and ranting to Artanis[Xp]. My emotional behavior in this game turned someone away from TL Mafia, something I'm still upset about. I've been having some girl problems, problems interacting with my friends, and our family hosted a guest from Europe for the past few days. And I've been too far behind in the thread to want to try and catch up, especially with the lynches being seemingly set in stone, and me not having the thread knowledge/presence/mental strength to argue against them. | ||
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I find it especially funny that he left ritoky off of his scum list and then added him at marvellosity's suggestion. And the way that he immediately showed interest in KelsierSC's "xP" analysis on rsoultin, but didn't really commit to scumreading rsoultin. His earlier townread on rsoultin doesn't seem to have been considered. This seems very suspicious by itself, but when compared to his play in Student Mafia 11, it is even worse. RuXxar was far more willing to townread people there, and never threw out this many scumreads (relative to the game size, of course). While I only gave one example earlier of how ruXxar was scumreading Clarity_nl after his supposed realization that he could be mason with Holyflare, ruXxar was very clearly scumreading Clarity_nl for a significant amount of time after this. And there's no mention of Holyflare at all. I'm completely convinced that ruXxar lied about his mason read on Holyflare and Clarity_nl. And while lying doesn't necessarily make someone mafia, I'm having a lot of trouble accepting this coming from town. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Background: Oatsmaster mentioned that rsoultin's high usage of "xP" in this game suggests that she is mafia. KelsierSC analyzed several of rsoultin's games as both alignments and concluded that rsoultin uses "xP" more as mafia than as town, and her average in this game matched her town averages. However, he then analyzed only the first four pages of each game, and the "xP" count was not alignment indicative. On July 06 2015 22:34 rsoultin wrote: Retracting hard townread on kels for pure retardation The post that started the conversation. On July 06 2015 22:35 marvellosity wrote: kelsier is pretty obviously town tbh. On July 06 2015 22:36 Harkon wrote: It's a simple question, and it has a simple answer. However, as town, rsoultin doesn't care if she argues with people, doesn't care about looking good, tends to answer questions and discuss in a really round-about way, and really doesn't like dealing with people/reads she thinks are stupid. I know you're going to say that rsoultin does this as mafia too, just wait patiently...What is mafiaish about the retardation? You are being very defensive. On July 06 2015 22:39 rsoultin wrote: What rsoultin is saying is fairly obvious, at this point. If someone is smart, and they say/do something that is clearly below their intelligence, then this is a reasonable sign that they are mafia. The problem is that there are many reasons that people can incorrectly read people in this way (applying the method incorrectly, such as incorrect assumptions about people's intelligence, misreading the questions, people simply thinking in different ways, other factors like being high/drunk/etc). But the core of the read is a sensible read. There is no town motivation for intentionally being stupid.Nothing if you have the intelligence of a brussels sprout XP Xp xp xp xp What is that now? 30? On July 06 2015 22:42 Harkon wrote: Let's assume for a minute that my intelligence is above the level of a brussels sprout. Same question. On July 06 2015 22:47 rsoultin wrote: Swahili, as in that Harkon completely missed rsoultin's answer, as if it were in Swahili. Then rsoultin slightly expands on the same thing.Swahili I'm saying retardation is only alignment indicative for intelligent people On July 06 2015 22:48 marvellosity wrote: so are you saying kels' retardation is alignment indicative then? On July 06 2015 22:50 rsoultin wrote: I'm saying it's retarded enough to doubt my townread on him Kinda amazing how this leads right back to what my post said when I first posted it ^^ On July 06 2015 22:51 rsoultin wrote: Okay yeah lol you can be a brussels sprout if you want ^^ the imitation is spot on On July 06 2015 22:52 marvellosity wrote: kinda amazing how i understand precisely what Hadron is getting at yet you keep not answering clearly That's enough to convey the point. Rsoultin did answer the questions asked of her every single time, just in a very round-about way. And evidently Harkon and marvellosity didn't really understand the answers (or they could have gone straight to the important questions, such as why rsoultin expects more intelligence than this from KelsierSC, how she knows that there isn't some other explanation, why rsoultin isn't paying attention to the effort that KelsierSC used, etc. As town, rsoultin seems to care more about answering questions in her own way and posting in her own way than playing such that other people can easily/clearly see what she is saying. We've talked about this a few times. In Assassination Mafia, this eventually caused her to make a few huge essay-style posts, clearly stating her reads in simple English. Point being that rsoultin seemingly dodging questions and being unhelpful is an issue in communication, and doesn't make her scum. On the contrary, I think that as mafia, rsoultin would be more willing to be helpful and answer questions more clearly, and be less argumentative. Furthermore, there's an element of creativity to these answers that provides hints at the thought process that created her reads, which could be harder to replicate as scum. Although at times it may seem that rsoultin is dodging questions or being unhelpful, this is generally not true. Rsoultin knows how to clearly answer questions, and as scum, she'd be more interested in doing so. The fact that she is still stubbornly playing in her own style, despite being scumread for it, suggests that she is town. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
RuXxar is top scum, followed by Holyflare, and then scott31337 (but I'm less confident about him). Boxerfred might be scum, but I don't have very much on him, yet. Clarity_nl and WaveofShadow feel a bit towny, and KelsierSC is a fairly solid townread. | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 14 2015 18:52 marvellosity wrote: I don't understand, I thought that sharing out-of-game information was acceptable? I did not mean to do something improper, regardless of if it is legal...http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488082-tl-mafia-lxxi-gaiden?page=320#6390 the spoilered is getting pretty close to correct application of DMA ruXxar On July 14 2015 11:29 ruXxar wrote: I see, I misread the bolded portion as why you were asking Holyflare what he would think if Clarity_nl died (which you did very soon after scumreading Clarity_nl). Now that I see the point you actually realized this (far, far later than I had thought), this makes much more sense.1) I scum read you at the start for 2 reasons : - Your comments were pointless and contributed nothing. I gained a lot of respect for you after the newbie game and expected a lot more. - You were evasive when asked for your opinion. 2) I did not try to interject on damdreds push because I wanted to see what information could be gained from it. 3) The #battrap comment to damdred and scott was an inside joke from our newbie game(you were there). 4) Ok, here's my reasonining around clarity: At first I had the thought that she was mafia with HF, because her comments on HF seemed pre-planned. Then at a later point a thought struck me that she could actually be masoned with HF. When clarity said "Do not lynch me and HF today" I thought she strongly alluded to them being masoned together. I decided to give her time. This is also why I asked her a few times how she would feel if HF got lynched / died. I wouldn't expect to see this thought come from mafia. On July 14 2015 22:05 ruXxar wrote: However, I still don't understand this. What excuse did Clarity_nl provide? I'm assuming you mean the excuse of the quick reaction to Holyflare's opening post, and using that to say he is town?It's incorrect to say that my scum-read on clarity only applied as long as HF is scum. I scum-read her because her excuse sounded pre-planned. Her actions were scummy on their own and didn't necessitate HF also being scum. I saw 2 options : - She's mafia alone or possibly mafia with HF. - She's masoned with HF. If so, how could that possibly be pre-planned from Clarity_nl but without Holyflare's knowledge? And why didn't this read apply to Holyflare? Anyway, I feel pretty stupid now ![]() On July 15 2015 00:02 Half the Sky wrote: I'm generally wrong on my reads, and you know it. If someone shoots ruXxar only because of what I said, I will be very mad. Why are you saying that my reads are good? I can't explain why you would say this as mafia, but it just feels really off...HF/Ras/Ruxxar - for information you'd have to shoot into that bunch unless somehow you can ferret whose most likely scum in that bunch and shoot that person. That's pretty obvious. Which might mean checking Trfel's case anyways in spite of DMA if we are to consider shooting Ruxxar. I mean Trfel is probably town because of DMA, but his reads COULD be off....though when he's town, he IS usually right. But as NSM7 proved...though he was active in that game, not always right. On July 15 2015 00:07 marvellosity wrote: Please do not use this read, it's very flawed. I have stated many, many times that I will never lie about out of game excuses, as town or as mafia. My post would have looked largely the same regardless of my alignment. Me being busy is not an indicator that I am town, it's an indicator that I am busy.yeah. and in the case of Trfel's spoiler - do i really think he'd ham it up THAT much if he were mafia? Essentially i hope he wouldn't go to those lengths, because it's so very cheap. On July 15 2015 00:14 Clarity_nl wrote: This is false, Palmar has taken to not playing seriously for the past while. In this game, I was actually impressed by the fact that Palmar was actually doing some things relevant to the game. But this does NOT suggest that he is blue.I mean I think the palmar shot makes sense for scum, he's a strong town that wasn't trying at all d1 which makes it likely he's blue, if he's not blue he's still a good shot as there's no way anyone is protecting him and he can solve games, and apparently harkon tried to direct a shot on him by soft claiming a blue role? To me, the Palmar night kill suggests that some of the otherwise more appealing targets are mafia... For example, Damdred. | ||
Trfel
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Basically, I'm reading the thread much more carefully than before, and it's going slowly. To be completely honest, I'm estimating that if I keep going at this rate, I'll finish the thread at about the same time the game ends (assuming we get at least one more scum lynch). So if I need to wait to finish reading the thread to make serious reads, I will never be able to do so. As far as reading you on a portion of the game goes, is Day 1 a fair portion of the game to use? | ||
Trfel
7015 Posts
Holyflare, what do you think about the out-of-game excuses I made in that one post? Do you think that it makes me town? | ||
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On July 15 2015 06:58 rsoultin wrote: Curiosity.not particularly, in all honesty. i overestimated my ability to keep up with a thread this size while doing that chem stuff so many others seem good at ^^ that and i'm easily frustrated at things, as you well know why? | ||
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Didn't you have some paranoid theory about Harkon planned for End of Day? Did you not share it, or did I miss it? | ||
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