EPT:-( Well that's really ruined this evening for me.
[M][N]Holy Guardians Chapter 1 - Page 3
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
:-( Well that's really ruined this evening for me. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I wasn't sold on lynching either of them, honestly. I wanted to lynch Onegu. As the deadline approached, however, it became clear that one vote would flip the vote between Chocolate and Kickstart. I've never believed (outside of mafia) that people should dodge difficult votes - even though I didn't want to lynch either of them, I thought I should cast my vote in the race and save the person more likely to be town. I wasn't furiously clicking refresh on the page, so I didn't see KS's claim. If I had, I would have obviously switched my vote (maybe back to Onegu, or over to Chocolate, I guess it would have made no matter). | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I would hesitate to include Damdred in this, since he was on the KS wagon from the start, so it could have just been a bad read. I've played with the rest of the permutations in my head a bit, and I don't think either or both of us being confirmed town does anything to exhonerate chocolate, and nor does chocolate being mafia necessarily implicate us (although it would look super bad). | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
One piece of useful information for the town, I guess (although it doesn't exactly help me :-\) is that if either, ritoky or I are mafia, Chocolate is also basically 100% guaranteed mafia as well. My reasoning (just in case it isn't obvious) is that if either of us are mafia then we would have known Choco was mafia and jumped on the KS wagon to save him. It would make no sense if we were mafia and chocolate was actually town, as there would be no reason for us to jump on one town bandwagon over another, especially as we had both lots of other plausible targets to go on. I would hesitate to include Damdred in this, since he was on the KS wagon from the start, so it could have just been a bad read. I've played with the rest of the permutations in my head a bit, and I don't think either or both of us being confirmed town does anything to exhonerate Chocolate, and nor does Chocolate being mafia necessarily implicate us (although it would look super bad). | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
1. If Damdred is mafia then Chocolate is almost 100% town because it would be very strange indeed for the mafia to target another mafia like that. 2. If chocolate is town, it makes it very unlikely ritoky and I would be mafia, for the same reasoning as above, namely that it would make no sense for ritoky or I to get involved in that kill if both the 'wagons' were actually town. We could have very easily left it alone, knowing either way a town was most likely to die. Obviously it wouldn't totally exhonerate us, but I find the other possibility (that we were mafia and just wanted to get on a town v town wagon for some next-level reason) extremely unlikely. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Just to recap the events, we had an almost guaranteed lynch on Chocolate but then ritoky and I moved in to lynch Kickstsrter (who is confirmed town). Here are the things I'm pretty sure on now: 1. If either ritoky or I are Mafia, Chocolate is almost certainly also mafia (although me being Mafia doesn't mean that about ritoky, and vice versa). This is because it would make no sense for either of us as Mafia to get involved in a town v town wagon-off. However even if ritoky and I are both town, that doesn't exonerate Chocolate. 2. If Chocolate is town, it is again almost certain that ritoky and I are both town.the reason for this is that if either of us were Mafia, we would know it was town v town and would most likely have not gotten involved. However, if Chocolate is Mafia it doesn't necessarily follow that ritoky or I (or both of us) are Mafia 3. If VE is Mafia then Chocolate is almost certainly town, as it would make no sense for a Mafia to tunnel another Mafia to the point that they were almost lynched. The reverse is true - if chocolate is Mafia, VE must be town, for the same reason - a Mafia would never tunnel a Mafia. Either of them being town doesn't exonerate the other though. I think I've got it straight now (hopefully).. Obviously there is lots of other stuff to parse over too, but I wanted to game out the most striking stuff first. What do you guys think? | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Regarding whether it is normal for a townie to post hypotheticals about if they were Mafia, I can't say whether it's normal or not, as this is my first forum game. My reasons for writing it as I did was because I wanted to be as objective as possible. Obviously most things in Mafia are pretty ambiguous (ie Damdred tunnelling a townie - could be misguided town or could be Mafia trying to keep attention elsewhere). However, the events of the last EOD gave, I think, an opportunity to draw some pretty bright lines, which I did. I think these will be really helpful to the town - not on their own, but combined with reads and also any further stuff we gather as we move forward. Since I voted KS over Chocolate, just as ritoky did, it would be disingenuous at best for me to exclude myself from reasoning that purported to be objective rather than subjective. My view is that when ritoky and milo jumped on KS over Chocolate, it was not at all clear that the vote would flip. My guess is that Mafia would be very wary about so publically committing themselves to a townie lynch this early in the game and so late in the day. I don't think they are confirmed town, but my town read on both of them is pretty strong. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On June 05 2015 15:00 scott31337 wrote: Maybe - Chocolate town? EZPZ read - scum don't like scumming anybody. Rit super town? No, he's a light town. I see Fidei's ideas of "if this one mafia, etc" but he could be coached that as well, do not see any of it. ## Chocolate / Milo / (one of my pocketed vets, Ritoky/VE/Damdred) with a lean on Damdred. Damdred is playing his shit game, at least Onegu is pulling more off. I'm about 85% sure one of these are mafia, a slight lean on two. Ritoky looks a lot better then the other two, but worry when none of them die Day 3, check them out again. I just wanted to say, if you were suggesting it, that I do not have a coach or a shadow, or really anyone looking over my shoulder/whispering in my ear. Thoughts are my own. You might think they're misguided, but I'd like it if you said why you thought that, rather than just trying to dismiss them as 'coached'. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Chocolate is town I believe, he does have some problems with him. Some of his early things that he said were pretty grating to me. VE jumping on him put him under a lot of pressure and he was one of the leading candidates going into eod, in fact once GG came back he was the only candidate. However his response to this was pretty interesting, he pushed off his own wagon onto someone who wasn't getting lynched, but then he did vote KS to survive which isn't alignment indicative. However a lot of his responses at eod I liked and right now its enough to town read him. Later you say: However I will say this, Chocolate Could very well be scum here and a Ritoky, Chocolate and NydusHerMain team makes a lot of sense to me and it should to everyone else. Chocolate does just enough to survive and leaves the door open to ritoky who hesitates just enough and jumps on KS is super active up until KS claims but isn't around to unvote until near after (I believe). It makes sense and saving a scum partner might be preferable here. Which is it? | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Sorry for having been quiet over the last day or so - I went out with work last night and drank waaay too much, then I've had friends round today and have just caught up with the thread. I want to talk a little bit about the ritoky night-kill. Someone said earlier that it's mostly circular (WIFOM?) to try and think too much about it. That makes sense to me, because if you say "so and so would have wanted to kill Ritoky because he was on to them", the obvious counter-argument is "well maybe the mafia are trying to set up so and so". On top of that, Ritoky was a relatively easy target because most people had him town-read (or, at least, he had barely taken any criticism apart from very early on regarding his posting style) and he was also really driving discussion in a pro-town way. However, I'm now going to totally crap on everything I just said above, and say that I think that the two people that Ritoky's night kill reflect badly on are scott and Ticktock. Ticktock Early on in day 1, ritoky was all over Ticktock. In particular, look at this. Ritoky was concerned that something was off with the post. (Honestly, I'm not sure I follow what Ritoky was on about, but that's not really the point.) He then later says this, where he says "I think me and this guy are reading separate games". However, he quietened down a bit on Ticktock as we came up to EOD 1, especially as everything turned on the Chocolate/Kickstarter debacle. After the vote, ritoky then said: TT also seemed overly upset/miffed by the vote for how little he did to try and stop it/get his target lynched. Seems like a bit of a disproportionate response. I guess a lot of people already said that but gonna echo it. TT ended up as the most yellow on ritoky's final list, which I assume means most scum.Scott Ritoky had less to say about scott, probably because scott just hasn't been as active as Ticktock (or, at least, it seems that way). Still, right at the end, in his table, ritoky wrote next to scott's name "very different from previous game". I've also had a scum read on scott for a while. Reading through his filter, I just don't think he has every contributed much of value. He posts lots of lists, but they generally only refer to vague feelings, rather than anything more substantive. He also has a serious tendency to respond to questions or comments with a "what do you think?" or "what's your list", which I think looks like a tactic to avoid answering questions. One thing in particular that I didn't like was where, when the Chocolate/Kickstarter thing was getting started, he had his vote on Chocolate. He then posted in the midst of it all here that "I'm starting to think both wagons are town". However, he didn't move his vote off Chocolate. That's a big tell to me. If he had honestly believed that, and was town himself, the logical thing would have been to try and look for a different candidate. In fact, both Chocolate and I were pushing an Onegu policy vote around that time, which would have succeeded if he had come on board and helped us to get one or two more supporters. Why a ritoky NK makes sense Ticktock is being tunnelled pretty hard by GGTemplar, but he doesn't seem to be on many other lists (I think he drew some fire from Chocolate earlier, but that seems to have died down a little). Scott doesn't seem to be on anyone's list at all - in fact I don't think anyone has really said much of anything substantive about him. Ritoky wasn't pushing either of them to get lynched, but he clearly had suspicions. To me it makes perfect sense for them to lynch him - it wouldn't draw too much fire because ritoky wasn't tunnelling either of them, but he definitely had a sense about both of them that nobody else had, and scott/TT silencing that voice totally makes sense to me. The other thing to bear in mind, for me anyway, is that Ritoky seemed like he was a really strong player, and since he is confirmed town, we know his views were genuine. It looks to me like these guys were his top targets. OMGUS (My understanding of this is that it's where people counter-accuse mafia). I recognise that scott and Ticktock are the two people who have really said negative things about me. They haven't ever said "oh, he's scum", but they've both just criticised my posts without giving good reasons, and I seem to have made it to the "null" section of their lists. As this is my first game of forum mafia, I accept that all of the above could just be confirmation bias. I'm raising this just so you guys can bear it in mind when you read the above. What does everyone think? TL;DR: ritoky was suspicious of scott and TT, so it makes sense for them to NK him | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Your first post made no sense. We had plenty of time to get an alternative wagon going. KS only got four votes - two or three thrown somewhere else would have been enough. And moreover, it shouldn't really matter - if you thought Chocolate was town, you shouldn't have been voting for him, period. Looking back at it now, it looks like you could have been just laying the groundwork for reticence after the event. Your second post comes across horribly, to me anyway. Why would you want me to vote for you? If you're town, you'd want to convince me I'm wrong. I wasn't aggressive in my post, and I don't think I was rude (certainly much less than others have been in this thread). so rather than swearing, why not make a case? and if there is something you think I'd missed (ie the other ritoky game) then you could have at least linked to it and explained why my interpretation is wrong. You didn't do that. Then you immediately transition to making a more substantive post, but without referencing my accusation that your posts aren't overly detailed. if I was wrong, you could have pointed out previous posts where you did (ie that I was wrong), but you didn't. Finally, you say that you want me gone. But you don't actually give a reason. The natural town thing, if you want to get a Mafia lynched, is to make an argument that other townies might buy. But you didn't do that either. Overall, your posts come across like you're panicking at having been called out. The reason I haven't voted on you yet is because I also think TT is Mafia, and it seems like there's more chance of getting a coalition to vote him off for now. But if there isn't much movement in the next 12 hours or so, I'll vote for you - unless you turn it around and make a real case that you're town. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I have a town read on milo. I've also come round on Damdred and VE. They both got out in front of their wagons, and I don't think that it's usual Mafia play to do that. I also really liked Damdred's response to my last question. Mafia are usually (I understand) obsessed with getting things right and are wary of admitting mistakes. When I pointed out Damdred had two different reads on Chocolate, he admitted it straight up. That makes me think that he was posting an honest stream of conscience, which I don't think a Mafia would do. I'm leaning towards Chocolate being town, a lot because his behaviour during the last EOD seemed really genuine. As to SL's replacement, I'm null. It's too early still. I'm also not sure on Nymus. As for GG, I originally thought that he was scum leaning, as all his posts were just "I think you're town". But he's changed it up since then. I'm null on him too. Also, yeah, my heart is going pretty quickly. Mafia is a hell of a lot more stressful than I thought it would be. I still feel awful for being the casting vote on KS. Being town and not knowing who to trust is giving me paranoia. It's fun, but once this game is over I think I'll need a break.. | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Why did I like Chocolate at eod 1? My recollection of it was that I found his posts very genuine. He seemed honestly frustrated by everything. Then again, since this is forum mafia it's perfectly easy for someone to write something that sounds genuine, but is actually fake. His reads across the entire game are totally all over the place. He had me at the bottom of one of his lists (most town), but then later said that he thought that me and milo were on a team with GGT. That's weird because I think milo is basically the closest thing we have to a confirmed town in the game (and I'm basing this mostly of ritoky being convinced milo is town, and the fact that we know ritoky is town). Also I know I'm town, and I don't think I've done anything really that would mean I should be that closely associated to GGT (although going through GGT's filter, I see that he's got a pretty strong town read on me). Honestly at this point, he isn't contributing much. Then again, I could say the same about quite a few people here (VE and Damdred aren't saying much, really, and Onegu still hasn't started really contributing, save for 'coming out' as having been pursuing some sort of eclectic sounding theory). Re GGT By "changing it up", I meant that he had stopped just wildly labelling everyone as town and had started posting more substantively. Looking over his filter now though, I see that happened earlier than I'd thought. The thing that stands out most to me about GGT is that his reads are very similar to mine. He has Tick Tock as his number one mafia, and he also has Scott on the list. His third one seems to be Damdred, and this is making more and more sense to me. Damdred and VE have both played pretty similarly, honestly. Both led D1 lynches and both make lots of short posts that are more based on discourse than analysis. I'm also going to say that I think Shen is probably town. His activity has blown everyone else's away thus far, and his style of combining questions with analysis is very townie to me. It feels similar to how ritoky was doing it, and it's also in my view the most helpful town style. Anyway, after the KS debacle I'm going to get my vote in earlier this time. I'm going to go for TT. I note that he hasn't responded at all to my WOT earlier about him and Scott. I haven't heard or seen anything to change my mind. Scott, to me, is very slightly stronger mafia read to me, but that doesn't seem like it's going to happen today. ##Vote Ticktock | ||
|
Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
| ||
| ||
