Newbie Student Mafia X

On May 18 2015 09:10 cakepie wrote:

Welcome, your reputation precedes you. Forum mafia is high volume reading and posting compared to RL mafia/werewolf or the SC2 arcade version and is thus a fairly demanding game. Highly recommend that you read through a couple, say, recent newbie games If you haven't already done so, to get a sense of what it's like. Definitely read the guides, and go over the OP/rules carefully. Don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions.

On May 22 2015 07:31 Bill Murray wrote:
##vote:27ninjabunnies the problem is it's barely too much ninja if it were 26 bunnies you'd be cool

On May 22 2015 08:08 Breshke wrote:
Oh yeah and SL is mafia

##Vote Sicklucker

On May 22 2015 17:12 Rels wrote:
As for know I will vote for the AFK until he post something. Then I'll vote for the people I don't like, I'll probably sheep Sulfurus unless he vote someone I don't agree with.

##Vote: boxerfred

On May 22 2015 19:28 Rels wrote:


You seem pretty defensive for what was just a policy vote until you posted something.



What is your most scum read atm ?

On May 22 2015 19:57 Rels wrote:
I suppose the only players here are boxerfred and Barakos.

So a question for the both of you: could you read sickluker filter and tell me what you think ?

On May 22 2015 21:37 Tictock wrote:
Alright I'm up and back at it again.

Rels looks pretty town. I like that he is keeping some pressure on SL and that he picked up on my strongest scum read on SL.

So far I'm not sure I like boxerfred. He's definitely giving off that newbie vibe but I really don't like how he is going about his reads atm.

I mean he starts off giving us 2 posts about how he doesn't know what to take seriously and that he doesn't know who to vote for. Then this pile of WIFOM leads him to a vote?


@BF Your looking too hard for associations and possible role tells before we have any solid (such as flip) info. Based on post content alone, and not possible interactions, who would you read as scum?

On May 22 2015 22:22 disformation wrote:
Okay. bunnies time.


Starts with randomly voting sicklucker. kay. Pretty NAI imo.


Agrees with Breshke. Not seeing why. Apparently even Bunnies was not sure why they are agreeing. Not being sure about the dumbtell is a sign of not reading properly. Which I don't like either.


From the same post as last quote. First agrees with Breshke and then is like "nah, let us lynch you". Because "I see a bus"?


I like this question. But it is a really general question. Not sure if it would be hard for mafia to ask stuff like this.


I agree, but again this is a question Mafia could also have asked easily.


Then this. Can't see how Sulfurus can be seen as more townie than ticktoc of that one post... that had a strange thing in it (the accusation thing I explained earlier)? Pocket attempt? Was the question a setup for Sulfurus they agreed on in their QT? Me no like.


When asked about stuff that I also pointed out the reaction is total deflection and trying to laugh it of. Me no like.


In my book bunnies is not looking good at all. Totally leaning scum. I need to look at a few other ppl, but I guess I am willing to vote on bunnies as of now.

On May 22 2015 23:00 Rels wrote:

I have the opposite view actually. Before you started pressuring him, I was sure he was a newbie. Now that you made him post more I'm not so sure ... I will quote everytime he said he was newb or something like that in his filter. Everything in the spoiler:

+ Show Spoiler +

That's 5 times for 13 posts.

On May 22 2015 23:18 27ninjabunnies wrote:
[...]
I do want to see BF's response to why he suddenly switch his vote.

So the way I'm looking at it in my head is this:

BF as newb mafia votes on BM just to be voting on someone...tlaks a bit, doesnt really push on BM, then mafia partner comes out with a case on me (town), and BF is like, ooo this looks good. Lets unvote, and go with mafia partner here.
[...]

On May 22 2015 22:27 boxerfred wrote:
I just read this but, as said above, gotta continue working. I'll ##unvote and read about this later. Thus far, I'm not understanding every point of your argumentation and I surely will require some time to iterate over the given posts and see them in context.

On May 22 2015 17:10 Rels wrote:
27ninjabunnies
He put pressure on SL as a joke, and then use this pressure to obtain info seriously!
... or at least that what I thought. Rereading his fitler he didn't use this pressure at all and has nothing worthwhile in his posts.

On May 23 2015 04:00 batsnacks wrote:
Also notice how boxerfred has thoughts on me that are totally separate from my hard townread on him. He is seriously top town. Mafia definitely ignores me, happy that I've been pocketed.

On May 23 2015 03:49 disformation wrote:
Also. Since you like my case but see a lot of town in bunnies, where do you place bunnies now? Who would you lynch as of now and why?

On May 23 2015 09:22 disformation wrote:




Possible TMI slip. Basically calls BM a misslynch out of the blue. I want to know his reaction/what he has to say about that.
You did read my case, right?

On May 23 2015 04:58 disformation wrote:


I want to see a bit more fire!
Scum generally doesn't want the town to collect new information... unless said information turns out to be confusing or distracting for town. Do you get that feeling from bunnies?

Also nothing on the second part of the question... still no idea who to vote for I guess? Keeping options as open as possible makes you look a bit scummy here. Though granted, I don't look much better right now. xD

(for the record: I have a question for bunnies and another one for Sulfurus. Also still haven't seen much from plotspot and scott. Also suspicious of BM. Wouldn't lynch bunnies atm, the others could be candidates for that.)

On May 23 2015 17:18 Breshke wrote:
Im about to head out but disfo was saying that Sulf TMI slipped not SL.

People are getting confused because he put his quotes in an odd place. The sl quote that is there is the one that sulf commented on saying that BM would be a misslynch. This infers BM is town because you don't misslynch scum.

But to be clear he did not mean SL slipped he ment sulf, read it with that in mind and it makes sense. I don't think it makes sulf scum but I can see how disfo thinks that.

Also BF i would be careful. Low activity does not always equal scum. Try find something more substantial if you can but scott would be a good pplace to vote if your going to vote inactivity. Remember you can always unvote so its good to vote early

On May 24 2015 23:06 disformation wrote:


Great, looking forward to that.

Looking at the votes on scott:

rels: pressures all the people with low/zero posts. did put a pressure vote on scott for basically only having 1-2 meh posts. scott tries to get rels off him, by saying he likes rels a lot. rels didn't seem impressed. scott never returns, so rels just keeps his vote on him.

breskhe: also voting for doing jack. but also backs it up with a meta read.

Oh and he also calls out scott earlier:

Liking breshke a lot looking at this.

sicklucker: votes batsnacks, quickly drops that vote. Either a joke vote, or realizing that this wagon won't go anywhere? Looks at the two available wagons, realizes that scott looks worse than me, throws his vote on him. Says N1 that he would have tried to get me lynched instead of scott, if he had been around EoD1. Not sure what to make of him atm. =/

batsnacks: had an earlier vote on scott, after looking at bunnies, sulf and scott. decided to vote scott out of that bunch. Then switches to sicklucker with that one super irritating post.

TBH I was thinking batsnacks and sicklucker were just trolling each other there. But sicklucker is still going on about that?
Well, batsnacks drops this vote on sicklucker super fast and votes scott with:

Since this aligns with his previous vote/read and the sicklucker vote was just a troll, I think this looks legit.

boxerfred: annouces that he will vote for an inactive person with:

goes ahead and votes scott:

Expresses some doubts here:

So... he goes from "I'll vote for whoever is really inactiv", which can imply "regardless of alignment" to "oh wow I really don't like to coinflip on the most inactive person ever."
Not really liking this. boxerfred, I would love to explain your train of thought on this.

If someone arrives at other conclusions from the votes, I would be down to talk about that. Will do some chores now so:

On May 25 2015 03:38 disformation wrote:


Hm. Yeah, there were a few people talking about how lynching inactives is a coinflip and not really good. Since you only mention that once in your whole filter and then still go ahead and vote scott I am not sure, if I am willing to let that slide this easy.


Good but very expected question. I explained it in this post:
+ Show Spoiler +
To summarize:
1) As per pre game excuse I was going to be away the 5 hours leading to EoD.
2) Since nobody else was in the thread at a time (look at the timestamps), there was no way to get a decent wagon starting. And throwing away votes (looking at ticktoc here) is not going to help.
3) scott was on my suspect list anyway (and has been basically all game).
4) As the only other wagon at the time was me, another vote on scott made it harder to lynch me, since my absence could have been used to get more people on the disformation wagon, without me being able to defend against that. Note that this is pretty much NAI, as neither mafia nor town players like to get lynched.

On May 25 2015 06:27 disformation wrote:


No. I am 100% sure that I am town. I have a PM that says so.
I have no clue what the PM the other guy got says, so I am a lot less sure about him.
So I will make this play, every day, every game.
As either alignment, which means that this doesn't give you any indication at all if I am mafia or town.


Not getting what you are trying to say. Of course I can't be 100% sure that no one is around. I don't have super vision to magically see who is lurking. Look at the thread at the time, it feels fucking deserted. No point in throwing out a case at that time.

On May 25 2015 06:43 disformation wrote:


If you have the choice to:
a) lynch yourself
b) lynch somebody else
What are you going to do each single time? Regardless of alignment.


Okay, what should I have done in your opinion? Throwing out a case and see if it sticks? Even if I am not around? Who is that going to help?

We are going to OMGUS at each other all of Day2. I'm calling it.

On May 25 2015 07:20 plotspot wrote:
yeah I do not think he is scum, I was just finished with p30 (and consequently D1) and I was pretty sure I had Rels as scum. There are 4 other players I am not sure of their alignment but... let me see... for Tictock, boxerfred, disformation, Bill Murray, Breshke and SL, I was sure they are town.
But now also 9 pages to go now until I'm REALLY up-to-date. If I see that SL is a scum with my latest reads, you can be sure I will vote him.

On May 25 2015 16:39 Tictock wrote:
BF is definitely town from his push EoN on Dis. I actually like the exchange between the two that happens.



@BF
I totally get where you are coming from on this, and it's not a bad read. However if this is still an important point to you I'd suggest you breifly skim Dis's filter in the last newbie game here.

He uses the simlies AND gets scum read for it in that game as well. However he was Town Doc that game. The smiles are simply a part of his writing style are are completely NAI (Not Alignment Indicative).

On May 24 2015 07:04 cakepie wrote:

scott31337 (6) : Rels, batsnacks (X), Tictock (X), Breshke, sicklucker, batsnacks, boxerfred, disformation
disformation (3) : Barakos, Breshke (X), 27ninjabunnies, plotspot
plotspot (1) : Bill Murray, Tictock (X)
27ninjabunnies (1) : Bill Murray (X), Tictock
batsnacks (1) : sicklucker (X), Sulfurus
Bill Murray (0) : Tictock (X), Sulfurus (X), Rels (X), boxerfred (X)
boxerfred (0) : Rels (X)
Breshke (0) : Sulfurus (X)
sicklucker (0) : Breshke (X), batsnacks (X), Bill Murray (X), batsnacks (X)
Sulfurus (0) : disformation (X)

Not voting (1) : scott31337

Currently, scott31337 is set to be lynched!

---

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

BF when you are around I want to talk to you about this bolded paragraph. Why do you think SL changing his votes that much means he msut know one of the peopels allighnments that he voted? Why do you think it is scummy/towny about him changing his vote that much.

On May 26 2015 09:47 sicklucker wrote:
anyway were not voting between me (11 page filter lol) and bunnies.Presurin bunnies is fine she will get out of it if shes town. The main scum against her is her vote which barakos apparently tell us ment nothing! he seems to know alot about whats going on in the mafia qt

but we have to presure these 2 1 page filter new players too or this game will never go anywhere.

Were not voting me today you baddies

On May 25 2015 08:20 disformation wrote:


Yes that part is pretty clear to me. Was wondering about:

Nobody knew that scott would't try to get a last minute vote off.


Possible that I was trying to hard to find a connection between my two top scum reads.

Rels and Breshke have made pretty compelling cases on you. Your answers so far weren't really satisfying. Do you want to try again?
+ Show Spoiler +

Getting super tired. Not sure how long I'll be available.

Wonder why SL is so defensive, yet so persistent that he is town? Why does he drone on about his HUGE filter of one liners and spam? Why does he tell us he is so experienced ans plays 100's of games?

On May 26 2015 20:59 batsnacks wrote:
Boxerfred there if there was a SK in this game 2 people would have died last night. There are usually very few roles in mafia games... Having an SK in the game is uncommon and an SK that doesn't kill the first night is so unlikely it's not really worth speculating.

On May 26 2015 21:07 plotspot wrote:
Ok let's suppose there is an SK, what reason would there be not to kill some people at night? Why wait?
And now let's suppose SL is the SK, how is his shifty behavior good for him as SK, as supposed to just play the safest town game and shoot everybody one after each other?
Tictock is your reasoning that if he establishes himself too hard as town, mafia will just kill him? Wouldn't it better then just to scumhunt hard elimating this sort of threat, instead of playing "what am I?"

My gut feeling is there is no SK.. I have yet to understand the benefit of stalling kills earlier on when it's the best time for you not to be found out.

On May 26 2015 22:18 batsnacks wrote:
idk BF what if everyone is an SK and we all targeted Rels?

On May 26 2015 22:31 Barakos wrote:


As batsnacks and I said - stop talking about sk please and focus on important stuff.

On May 26 2015 22:33 batsnacks wrote:


Okay so, yes, TECHNICALLY there could be but it is unlikely. The reason I'm going hard on the THERE IS NO SK thing is that in most mafia games, someone would scumread you for this highly speculative role speculation. It makes you look like you are distancing yourself from the much more probable and relevant discussions happening in the thread, which is technically scummy.

It's the same with speculating about masons. Town gains very little from speculating about roles it usually helps mafia more than town, so best practice is usually to not talk about it until someone claims.

On May 27 2015 04:29 Tictock wrote:
@27nb

What do you think about my last post regarding plots?

I agree about BF, he seems to be sheeping the popular opinion today. I also really don't like him looking for masons. Like he seems to be thinking it would help town to know who is masons so we have more confirmed town. Yet his possible masons are all people largely being townread, so how is that thinking helpful?

On May 27 2015 16:12 sicklucker wrote:
Who would disinofs partner be?



one of the rethinkers right? boxer and me are less likely mafia for not voting bm.That leaves just barakos maybe bats as his partners. Not sure if he pushes his partner bunnies but its possible

On May 27 2015 07:34 plotspot wrote:
Okay, maybe it’s time we talk about this now. I have received a visit from the RB on N1.
I have no idea who did this but, it must be someone who thought I might be scum and checked on it with his night action on N1. Who the hell might do that?

On May 27 2015 16:56 sicklucker wrote:


Thats a pretty wissshy washy answer. For one bm was more inactive then bunnies. And realistcly if you dont lynched inactives that is pro mafia because it leaves inactives around for end of game lynches.

Now that bm flipped town do you not see the logic I was providing that explained why he was town?
Can you link us to your scum game

On May 27 2015 17:00 sicklucker wrote:


only if theres 2kp tonight. And even then theres other possiblitys. (held shot)

Thinking about a sk is pointless because its so unlikely

On May 27 2015 20:48 disformation wrote:


Yeah. I get the feeling that I am swayed too easy. My waffling is really bad this game, too. Should try harder to eliminate these aspects from my play. -.-
At least my pushing is a bit better than last game, imo.
Semi-present... trying to reevaluate some stuff. If you have questions axe me some.

On May 27 2015 22:20 Breshke wrote:
Boxer what about bunnies? I want her to be the lynch tomorrow. What do you think about that?

On May 27 2015 22:23 Tictock wrote:
@BF
The whole SK thing was some tinfoil hat theory that I liked too much and took seriously. I suggest we go back to ignoring it until we at least find more scum.

I get your thinking on Dis, but to me that's just a sign on him being a new player and not being sure of his own reads. You could probably make this argument about me, but I like pushing what I see pretty hard.

Lets for a moment put aside our thoughts about Dis and SL.

Who are you fairly confident is town?
Where do you think we should look for scum in our shortening list of players?

On May 27 2015 22:40 boxerfred wrote:

I wouldn't put that aside as fast as you do it. Changing a posting pattern is a serious thing. I get your "he's new" approach but I think you forget that dis is very conscious of posting patterns, he mentioned my pattern in a post. He must know that posting patterns are quite telly and he even took it in account when he was pushing me. So I at least want to know why his pattern changed so much. Any info, disinfo?

I am fairly confident that Breshke is town. Can't tell for sure of course but his posts are very reasonable. He's taking his time to argue and he's very fair towards people, decently pushing at the same time though. I held batsnacks for town (also because he read me town basically all the time) but that might just be him pocketing me.
I don't have a read on you, tictock, and feel like you should be under some more pressure or at least give some info on what your current reads are, now that BM flipped coin.

I think putting SL aside at least until EoN is a good thing. We have no new clues thus far and he's fairly active, arguing in a weird but relatively reasonal way. Seems to have stopped yolo'ing.

On May 27 2015 23:45 Breshke wrote:
This is gonna sound dumb but if boxerfred is mafia then mafia has exactly one goon one godfather and one RB cos of how he misunderstood the setup. Makes me think he is town but it's a dumb reason

On May 28 2015 00:17 Barakos wrote:
That's pretty simple... if boxer worked under the assuption that all roles were in game and he is mafia, mafia would have to have all three roles, or else he would have recognized his mistake earlier.

He did only recognize this in thread, so either mafia has all three roles, or boxer is town.

On May 28 2015 00:28 batsnacks wrote:
Barakos did you just claim cop lol?

On May 28 2015 07:57 Barakos wrote:
Just saw it now... I was roleblocked. Didn't see the pm at first.

On May 28 2015 23:09 Tictock wrote:
I think I got a good enough answer out of Plots to poke holes in his claim to be Town RB.

I'm a little biased here though, so I encourage Town to see if they think plots claim holds.

I believe he is Mafia RB trying to fakeclaim Town RB.

RB,RB, Goon vs Cop & Masons sounds fairly balanced, no?

On May 28 2015 08:00 Sulfurus wrote:



Where's your accusation? You didn't even check me.

On May 28 2015 08:25 sicklucker wrote:
Na definately claim. Makes it more believable now and its not like its a useful role. Were ahead we dont have to risk being behind.

The longer you dont claim the easier it is for mafia to cc you.

On May 29 2015 01:34 boxerfred wrote:

Wait, batsnacks is the cop claim, I mistook that last post. I meant ticktoc. However, that initial post implies that he checked sulfurus so everything's pretty clear?

On May 28 2015 09:24 batsnacks wrote:


Yeah I wish you had been townie enough that I could have checked someone else e.g. sulfur. >.>

On May 28 2015 10:13 disformation wrote:
Okay folks. Let me solve this stuff...

...

boxerfred: I remember you getting pretty angry when I called out your bad D1 voting behaviour. Hit a nerve?
]

On May 28 2015 13:33 27ninjabunnies wrote:
The one time I can interact with people, no one is around. lame.

On May 29 2015 01:48 boxerfred wrote:


Shame. It's fun how the D2 attention on 27nb changed to, at first, ticktoc and then me. I don't like that.

On May 28 2015 13:55 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Tops lynches

PRP
Dis

Sulf/SL if the other two arent mafia.

On May 28 2015 14:23 plotspot wrote:
I am just wondering why you killed Breshke? Was he killed because he asked me questions about the RB?

On May 28 2015 14:38 plotspot wrote:
Your scum partner made a big mistake here

Can you see what's missing in this question?

On May 28 2015 15:13 Tictock wrote:
Suls filter is short, and there's only been 2 votes. Time to do some analysis/defending!

Sul opens with his response to SL's QT stuff and 27nb's, immediately pushes Breshke for his pressure on SL.
+ Show Spoiler +

Calls out SL for contradicting himself a little
+ Show Spoiler +

Swaps vote from Bre to BM. Gives good reasons why he is swapping.
+ Show Spoiler +

Gives more of a townread on Bre, then unvotes BM. His reasons here seem fairly poor
+ Show Spoiler +

Says he is unsure why 27nb is defending him, gives a super weak tonwread on me then claims Bara as top town. In fact he likes Bara's points about Bats opening so much he votes Bats.
+ Show Spoiler +

Further explains about his vote on Bats
+ Show Spoiler +

Gives thoughts about Vig shooting SL being better than cop checking
+ Show Spoiler +

Clarifies his stance on BM to Dis, he's saying BM is mislynch bait here... Also defends SL.
+ Show Spoiler +

Gives us a PoE list and votes SL
+ Show Spoiler +

Responds to a couple of questions from me, reminds me of his stance on Bats and disagrees with my stance on plots
+ Show Spoiler +

Pressures Bats to explain his switch to BM (i'd like to know this as well)
+ Show Spoiler +

Agrees BF is speculating too much about roles, but says he is likely town.
+ Show Spoiler +

Thinks it's likely bunnies is trying to pocket him
+ Show Spoiler +

There's also his posts asking Bats why he is suddenly the #1 target and his pointing out that Bunnies could be potential GF, these were so recent I'm not bothering quoting.

The Votes:

Day 1 Sul left his vote on Bats. It's a throwaway vote but it is in line with his reads all game.

Day 2 Again left his vote on SL.

Sul's votes dont look great, but he's not around often to change his vote and he gives decent reasoning why he is voting as he does. His vote on SL is weak, but he never gave much indication he'd be willing to vote either bunnies or BM so it makes sense.

To me the biggest point here is Sul calling out BM as mislynch bait, scum would not point out someone as a potential mislynch bait. I'm also not seeing anything here that indicates scum behavior.

Given all this, you guys had better give some damed good reasons why Sul is scum.

To me 27nb is still the clear target as nothing has actually cleared her of any of the reasons she was being lynched D2. Green check when there is a possibility of GF is not enough.

On May 28 2015 15:38 Sulfurus wrote:
I probably should have taken the time to explain my votes earlier.

Remember on D1 the vote was 6 for Scott and 3 for Dis with most people giving no indication of changing so there is nothing I can do to change who dies. But what I can do is give my reads more weight to them by voting my top scum (who unfortunately for me turned out to be cop).

On D2 it is true that I was AFK for the whole Bunnies vs. Murray ordeal however both were on my lynch list so technically I would have been fine with either getting lynch. However I have a feeling that if I was present I would have changed my opinion.

Speaking of changing opinions I realize that the list I linked looks pretty bad in light of recent events (I am pretty certain that BS is legit for reasons others have stated) so it looks like I will have to take some time off to do some rereading and hopefully come up with a list of scum that doesn't make people want to instalynch me.

On May 28 2015 19:55 disformation wrote:
Also town rb and gf stuff:
Since batsnacks is 100% the cop and we 100% have masons, that makes it extremely unlikely we also have a town rb (that can block mafia kp!). Thus I agree that we have 2 mafia rb. Which makes it a bit more unlikely we have mafia rb/rb/gf.

By taking out the people with claims,checks, etc. the people left are:
ticktoc
boxerfred
Sulfurus
sicklucker
disformation

That is like a 2/5 to lynch mafia. If one of those is the town mason and claims, we are down to basically a 50% chance of hitting mafia.
In my case, if I take myself out (since I know I'm town) and you are the mason. I have only 3 targets left. Look at my huge wall a few pages ago.
Even if there is a GF, one of those 3 is 100% mafia.

On May 28 2015 20:42 disformation wrote:
Yo. plotspot.


I am getting a bit annoyed right now. This game is basically solvable using some logic, but we are having a bunch of (presumably) town trying to make it as hard as possible to the very last minute.
I kinda want to go in a corner and cry for a bit.

On May 28 2015 20:58 plotspot wrote:
Bats like how does SL confirm to you he is not town RB? He should just confirm, it's no risk I promise.

On May 28 2015 20:59 sicklucker wrote:


im not splots it was jokes

On May 29 2015 02:09 disformation wrote:


At the time of posting that I was very sure that lynching according to my huge wall would bring town a victory. And I don't like the tone. =p

On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote:


In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.
Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear.
"Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF.

Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap.

On May 28 2015 21:51 disformation wrote:
Shit. I'll have to think about this a lot when I get home later.
##unvote for now...

On May 28 2015 23:09 Tictock wrote:
I think I got a good enough answer out of Plots to poke holes in his claim to be Town RB.

I'm a little biased here though, so I encourage Town to see if they think plots claim holds.

I believe he is Mafia RB trying to fakeclaim Town RB.

RB,RB, Goon vs Cop & Masons sounds fairly balanced, no?

On May 28 2015 23:12 Tictock wrote:
If that is true it would mean BF is likely the last scum, since plots is so sure he will CC me.

On May 28 2015 23:19 plotspot wrote:

I'm sorry I confused you disformation. Yes I town read him there, but I observed something about him that raised my suspicion, but since I am Town RB I may not always post what I find suspicious next just to RB it. It may give away my that I'm the RB. You see I was terrified that Mafia would discover me on the account of this post about Rels here right after she died:



If for some reason Mafia thought:"who the fuck would RB this guy? Like who, wait a minute: Maybe he blocked himself to establish a story? That would look so bad. Why would he waste a block on himself? Hey maybe he blocked Rels. Yeah that's it he scumread her after she died remember? He even said he would have shot her if he was Vig. So if this guy is RB he would definitely have blocked her. Now that she is dead, no one can tell if he lied or not, but he establishes himself as town. Hehe; this guy is so dead"

Ok I'm sorry for all the mucus earlier. I apologize for my bad behavior. I shouldn't have done this. It was just I work for it all night and posted what I thought was the solution for us at 4:00 am (4hours after D3). You guys don't believe I am the RB and blocked Barakos? I can even semi-prove it, but I'd rather not as it gives away some info for possible future mafia. Please allow me some secrecy in that regard.

On May 28 2015 23:38 plotspot wrote:
Okay let's assume this:
Tictock Mason
plotspot RB
disformation VT
27ninjabunnies VT
sicklucker VT
batsnacks Cop
Barakos VT

---
wouldn't that leave: Sulfurus and boxerfred left as Mafia?

On May 28 2015 23:47 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So wwe have

Cop
Town RB
MAson
Mason

IT could be possible to have these many roles in a setup.

But plots claim throws me off.
We asked MULTIPLE time for a RB claim, and it took him that long of talking when he could have outed earlier?
Also, claiming he himself was roleblocked just seems like mafia play rather than a town play there.

Could we very well have 2 mafia roleblockers?

I don't know why yall are on me. Im town.

The reason why I voted on dis was the lack of actual townieness to me day 1 and the connection with BF (who is still alive btw)

You may not like my reasoning, but that's it.

On May 29 2015 00:50 disformation wrote:
plotspot: could you explain why boxerfred was the second mason in your opinion? imo you never bothered to explain that.

On May 29 2015 02:14 boxerfred wrote:

Well I just did that . I think dropping the role speculation is a good thing - we have solid claims in cop and RB and mason, so all that is left is speculating about which role for which player would make sense.

On May 29 2015 07:11 Tictock wrote:
I'm a little on the fence about BF's rapid fire posting on page 83. There is a lot of stuff being said but I'm not sure how many real points of deeper thought I can see, it's more like hes just reacting. That's NAI, I'm just having a hard time reading through it kus it's a bit all over the place.

@ BF
You mention you brought up questions you wanted answered. I feel like i lost them in your like 20 post spam. Can you restate please?

I also want to remind you that while i for a moment considered you and plots as potential scum team, I dismissed it the next post. It was only based on what plots has said, and if he is scum it could have been a move to push you into the limelight after he gets lynched.

I'd also like you to critically look at the 3 claims made today, you've been wanting to do roles stuff for the past few phases, now is your chance. Look through each claim and tell me what makes you think the claim could be legit and what could not be legit. If you need to get more info to reach a conclusion, now is the time to ask.

On May 29 2015 07:39 Tictock wrote:
@ BF
Thanks for your thoughts and reposting your questions.

I'm around for a bit longer, but then i need to get some RL stuff done.

Anything for me before I go?
^This is to everyone

On May 29 2015 07:39 disformation wrote:


First question was alreay answered by me here:




Thanks.

On May 29 2015 21:52 Tictock wrote:
Last thought before I go away.

Nobody claimed RB until N2.

This was well after I started an unhealthy discussion regarding setup speculation.

On May 30 2015 01:11 plotspot wrote:
But I am not sure, if there were really 2 Masons, 1 Town RB, and 1 Cop, could a 2 GF and 1 RB setup make up for it or even a 4th mafia? Can someone tell me? Like I don't want to tunnel on Tictock again here, if the setup of the above holds.

On May 30 2015 01:35 batsnacks wrote:
Tiktok don't vote plot. Even if he is the mafia rb he has to do what we say now. We can just make him rb whoever we want and if he doesn't listen we can lynch him.

On May 30 2015 01:47 Tictock wrote:
Hole crap do I have to keep spelling this out for everyone?

Plots is Mafia Goon. Bara is GF

He was willing to play so crazy today because between the check from bats and his invented RB stuff, which we only have word of through plots and Bara, would give Bara plenty of towncred to ride out much of the game. Especially when Town is so willing to sit around lynching people not talking much.

These 2 people are the only ones saying I made some crazy defense of Sul here, when it's at best a null read.

They are also the only 2 clinging to this RB role, since it's what their towncred relies on.

On May 30 2015 01:41 boxerfred wrote:

Could the RB claim just be a scum claim? Barakos and plots being scum members, thus pretending to be blocker and blocked? Maybe besides scum RB, no RB is in.

On May 30 2015 01:51 Tictock wrote:


I realize this is an option, but why not him today then asses Sul or 27nb tomorrow?

I'd rather maximize our chance of catching Scum today.

On May 30 2015 02:21 disformation wrote:


kay. whatevs.
Have you at least read my answer to your question?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=86#1716

Also:
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 30 2015 02:26 sicklucker wrote:


breske would have let us no 0% chance theres only 1 mason

On May 30 2015 02:40 disformation wrote:


... FFS
Next try:

1. Make a pool of all people alive.
   
2. Remove people with claims and checks and so on
   
3. If we randomly lynch one of those people we have a 66% chance to hit mafia IF there is no GF
   [*]IF there is a GF: this chance is 33% IF one of bunnies or barakos is the GF
   

This is not a paradox...
better?

@sicklucker:
Care to explain why you said BM might be scum in this post:

Earlier D2 you had him cleared off all suspicion after reading through scott's filter and saying scott spewed him town.

On May 30 2015 02:48 disformation wrote:


This post honestly looks like town getting town to stop doing stuff. Sound reasoning. PoE list looks reasonable. But I'd like to hear a few explanations about that.

27ninjabunnies starts to give me an annoyed/frustrated town vibe... and I kinda have a feeling that D2 was between two town wagons (yeah a feeling is probably not a really solid reasoning, but whatevs :p). I am also not really fond of the odds of lynching into a green check...


So I really need to look into my two remaining choices:
boxerfred and sicklucker...

On May 30 2015 03:09 disformation wrote:


You are awefully quick to pick up that vote after I mention your name.
And I think I already unvoted. (Vote count please?)

But stay with me:
Without the blue claims and myself who is left:
bunnies: who looks not good at all on D2 and D3, but has a green check. Not 100% comfortable to lynch a green check.
Sulfurus: who looked really good D1, did nothing D2, looks at bit better as of today.
boxerfred: Not really sold either way.
sicklucker: Looks pretty good D3, but there are some D2 plays that confuse me and he hasn't even bothered to explain. Also ridic hard to read overall.
disformation: yeah I am not the greatest, but in my mind it is obvious that I am at trying to solve this. I am also trying to show you WHY I am waffling that much. Also since sicklucker tried this already we know that I am not allowed to vote myself.

So. 3+ people on that list are town making the game a lot harder and I am having a hard time deciding who on that list is the scummiest person around.

On May 30 2015 03:13 27ninjabunnies wrote:
BF, that was a weird as f post.

On May 30 2015 03:25 disformation wrote:
Yo.


Wasn't that your last read on 27ninjabunnies? Why aren't you voting her now? Why do you pick me over her? Why not make a case on sicklucker?
Also at this point stating that you are on me since D2 sounds a lot like tunneling. Also If you were town you wouldn't go this mad on the only person really pushing you... do you want to discredit me, so others won't look at my facts this hard?

I am a bit annoyed though, since I don't see that helping town

On May 30 2015 06:48 batsnacks wrote:
Nah bunnies isn't the gf

BAT TRAPS LOL

Shenanies onto sulfur

##unvote
##vote sulfurus

Bunnies: then we have bunnies, who almost everybody thought was scum, where I thought she was just lazy, plus the green-check mechanics gave her an 84% chance of being town than scum (I was wrong yesterday when I thought it was only 80%). Like today it is, 80% when we take into consideration that boxerfred, disformation, SL and Barakos are also in the pool. Usually this is the theory, but does math really help here? Even the math falls, when I start to read 3 of the remaining 4 players town, because it’s IMPOSSIBLE of all of them to be mafia. So what? it reduces it down to 50-60% still. If I RB her, there is a chance we establish her as town, at least more than when she was not RBed in comparison to any players I haven’t RB yet.

On May 31 2015 06:57 Barakos wrote:
don't block tictock.. he is like the only confirmed town besides you.

potential mafia at this point are bunnies, disfo, boxer, sl. (bats too, but blocking him seems pointless, cause he is most likely killed tonight, if he is actually cop)

If I were you, I'd pick one of those. Not saying anything more. ^^

Someone said pick someone, who seems towny, cause this might make for a surprise... or pick the most scummy, caus mafia might suspect you to pick someone town.. just please block out of the 4 names.

On May 31 2015 07:14 Barakos wrote:
And boxer: I was not on the to-block-list, because I already was blocked and we need a 2nd person to confirm, that there is a blocker, to beat some sense into tictock.

So blocking me over and over won't get tictock off of plots head and we need a sane confirmed town, to solve this.

On May 31 2015 07:24 Barakos wrote:
ok... mafia from least likely to most likely only based on claims:

boxerfred, disfo, sl (no claims, no checks)
ninjabunnies, greencheck, but possible godfather)
barakos (greencheck, but possible godfather; roleblocked in a night with a scum-nightkill)
plotspots (roleblocker, with one confirmed mafia-roleblocker and no other town powerroles)
tictock (mason, that has gone insane over losing his mason-partner)

mafia based on feeling:
disfo
27nb
bf
sl

would lynch down that list, depending I don't find anything completely spectacular in the filters

for now

##vote: disformation

On May 31 2015 07:41 Barakos wrote:


mathematical technicality...
I was blocked on a night, where a kill happend... one of mafia has to deliver the kill. So there is a chance, that if I was mafia, I would have delivered the kill, which would not have happened, if I was blocked... It's not much, but makes me "more green" than bunnies.

On May 31 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote:


if my play was to make you waste your block so you can become confirmed. Why am I calling you confirmed town here

On May 31 2015 08:13 sicklucker wrote:
Tictock ok so your saying mafia does not have a rb left. So far this story checks out because the rb was used on bats/rels who died. So why dont we just leave plots alone and he can rb you or someone you trust. Then they can confirm he was roleblocked.

If hes mafia claiming roleblock without being able to roleblock hes insane. Because eventually his story wont check out because no ones reporting being roleblocked.

On May 31 2015 08:16 Barakos wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

I'll be off for tonight... because after sad comes mad. -.-'
ty for playing voice of reason, sl.

On May 31 2015 08:26 Barakos wrote:


still this is perfect, because that way, you can control mafia-nightkills

you just make plots block suspects.

Then mafia either kills the suspects or you get plots confirmed.

and if plots blocks mafia and mafia denies being blocked, you kill plots, see he was the rb and found yourself a mafia.

On May 31 2015 08:28 sicklucker wrote:


##vote boxerfred

Stop trying to light the fire. Were a plots/tictoc reconciliation away from winning the game.

All plots has to do is roleblock you disinfo or bunnies. If mafia kills them thats great for us. If he doesint and hes mafia hes claiming mafia

On May 31 2015 08:32 sicklucker wrote:
But plots you understand why its important you dont say who you roleblock. Mafia could kill that person and use it as an excuse to vote you out

On May 31 2015 08:26 Barakos wrote:


still this is perfect, because that way, you can control mafia-nightkills

you just make plots block suspects.

Then mafia either kills the suspects or you get plots confirmed.

and if plots blocks mafia and mafia denies being blocked, you kill plots, see he was the rb and found yourself a mafia.

On May 31 2015 08:37 boxerfred wrote:

I'd love to know whether you didn't see the flawed logic or chose to ignore it. You're strengthening ticktocks case by that.

Okay, so we have tic's huge case, explaining why Barakos and Plots are the GF pair - and we have the other case, where bunnies is GF and one of me, dis, sl is scum and where plots is the RB.

(3rd possibility: GF + GF + RB setup which is not likely I guess since its the only scenario that would not include one scum member in between the three guys)

So it comes down to Barakos and bunnies. If we lynch Barakos and he flips red, we pretty much have plots as the remaining scum member, eliminating chances. If we lynch bunnies and she flips red, we're down to three guys with one scum member on them. Those three guys are disinformation, sicklucker and myself. I'd go for lynching between the two. It's a 50% chance.


True. That makes me feel like we should start with voting bunnies. Which I try to do since D2.


I'm not lighting any fire (as you can see from my post). I'm reasoning.

##unvote ##vote 27ninjabunnies

almost 2am here. good night.

On May 31 2015 12:06 sicklucker wrote:




You vote the two other dudes. Then when I vote you your saying im the mafia, Ya ok

On May 31 2015 12:07 sicklucker wrote:


IM THE MAFIA BUT YOU VOTE THE OTHER TWO hummmm