TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 44

On March 29 2015 09:32 ritoky wrote:


yes but what I am saying is that if scum is truly in the dumpster and in the PoE list, then why wouldn't they make any play available to gain cred?

On March 29 2015 09:40 ritoky wrote:


I said, and maintain; that I will gladly get PoE lynched if people add damdred to the PoE list in place of someone else. not a soul outside of me has done so yet.

On March 29 2015 09:41 ritoky wrote:


you think scum is in your PoE, this means scum must be in a 0 win position if the current state of the game proceeds. from this position, if scum had the orb they would utilize it to curry favor or make a desperation play red checking someone who would throw the game into chaos.

On March 29 2015 09:45 ritoky wrote:


isn't any role outside of the claimed ones now essentially a red check? and why the hell would you lynch someone red checking someone before the red check? the fuck? that is just procedurally wrong outside of lylo.

On March 29 2015 09:48 ritoky wrote:


tell me why damdred is town first. I mean people seem to have an unimpeachable TR on him and no1 has ever said why.

On March 29 2015 09:50 ritoky wrote:
artanis I just think you're really wrong here. partially from a game perspective and partially from a procedural perspective. I would lynch the red check without hesitation.

On March 29 2015 09:36 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Anyway my carpet bomb strategy prefers Ritoky going all out on figuring Damdred out then lynching Ritoky and seeing if there's any reason to worry. This is further bolstered by the fact that Ritoky first agreed, then (if scum) realized that he'd have to flip scum for it, flips his thoughts and flips his read on me on something that is pretty much null (I'm pretty sure he had a townread on me until that point), asks Vivax about the plan (why Vivax specifically?) and flips his tunnel on Damdred (90 mentions) entirely.

On March 29 2015 09:55 ritoky wrote:


I can pretty much sum a lot of my rebuttal to this up by saying: Imperial Mafia. This is a bad metric to read him on, and I find none of it compelling. I have looked through his filter. Although I am not as sure as before on him. I have softened a bit. That said, if damdred is mafia, he is 100% with Onegu.

On January 07 2015 00:42 Damdred wrote:
2; GlowingBear- Glowingbears d1 and d2 were largely forgettable as in GB wasn't here doing anything. I actually believe GB that he was just busy and doing holiday things during this time period. Being two hundred or so pages behind GB seems to attack people through looking at filters or whats going on in the game directly.

We see that GB goes after the harder targets in the game which is alignment indicative of GB. If you look in GBs past mafia games he rarely goes after the hard target, in arnie got a gun gb did go after robik some but overall he still went after the easy mislynches (and robik was getting a good bit of heat at the time) but he finally settled on templar to get a kill for that day and then went on to focus on me. If you then look at Fanfiction Mafia, GB mainly tunneled onto me throughout the whole game as I was viewed as a weaker town read but was pretty easy to get lost in that.

Look at recent town games of GB, GB went after the heavy hitters in HF (carol), Marv (Russian), JAT (here). I really think that this is alignment indicative at this point in GBs mafia play after this game its possibly not because i've posted and he will change his meta again. When GB is here he is putting his neck out for reads even if some of them come off as a bit tin foil hat. Overall I think GB is town today and gets more time to develop reads right now and contribute.

4; Artanis[XP] - Artanis seems pretty town to me, has been engaged in everything that the thread has been throwing out. Has tried to push his lynch forward and has seemed to logically go about things in a good way. Also seems to have pretty good follow up with the questioning phase and looks to find if things are lining up. I think right now Artanis is in my top three town reads.

5; Lazermonkey - Lazermonkey is scum. If you look at my case d1, kels case d1 and n2, you will see that he is scum. He is super defensive about everything the moment he gets pressure. He misrepresents a ton of things going on in the thread and when confronted with it backtracks a good deal (one of his posts towards me, misrepresents me and SL at points). He has scum reads at certain points and is super happy to lynch them but then forgets about them when the thread does and almst never pushes them again (scum read on me when kel relented lm never did again and now sl is scum). Hard defends someone who his probably mafia I think hes mafia.

6; Marvellosity - I'm going to be putting marv into the town pile right now. While his play leaves something to be desired especially around lynch time, he seems to give opinions as the game goes along and seems to care. Just comparing this game to any of his recent games you can see it looks closer to his town games then it does his scum games. I really think that he has given some good thoughts to the game and really wish he would knowledge bomb us though and find some mafia. Also this marv kind of reminds me of Cell Marv where he was town but didn't care as much because some people didn't listen to him early. Hes probably a mid tier to lower tier town read but i wouldn't lynch him.

8; IAmRobik - I think Robik is probably town, hes really tunneled at this point. Its more of a gut thing than anything and is a super weak read, his fights seemed a bit weird to me and contrived at points and kinda made VE rage quit. Promised to do more and has done a bit so i'm not sure but I think town.

9; TheChyz (replaced)- I think earlier I talked about how the slot is more than likely town for a few reasons, it was tunneled into for pretty bad reasons and it caused a rage quit. However the manner in which they rage quit looked pretty towny besides claiming scum, leaving a will that could be used to implicate your team mates is not something I think a scum quitting would do. Town more than likely.

10; Palmar - Palmar is probably scum. He afk'd on most of the lynches and was goin to waste his vote at one point before he was confronted with it, in another game Palmar mentioned that he is either a 0 or a 10 as town and usually a 5-7 as mafia. I would put Palmar in a weird range of seeming to do things and not do things, his knowledge bomb on d1 got him a pass but he really hasn't done much since then.

His push on marv feels a bit weird to me, he really didn't push hes just been soft pushing to see if people would pick it up to me. And he really hasn't reacted to SLs fake claim+rescend which just rom knowing palmar he has a policy to lynch claimers as i've recently experienced. I think its out o his town game.

13; sicklucker - I think SL is town, I would put him into the top five right now. His play which has gotten him some flack just doesn't make sense coming from a mafia. He is barely under any pressure and he claims cop with a green check changes it and then unclaims during the night for wifom. It just looks like someone who watches or plays video mafia would make this play and see it as pretty good. I don't like the play as it might draw out the cop but it does not make sense at this juncture for mafia to want to go 1-1 with the cop. SL is pretty solidly town for me.

Besides that if you look at his play he has developed a few crazy theories and flip flops on people to get reactions and to flush out his reads if you look at student mafia, carol, metal mafia you can see him doing this a ton it is one of the staples of his town game.

14; Vivax -

15; KelsierSC- Kel is town. Honestly hes my top town at this point. His questioning people during the night and day phases, his follow up and his synopsis of all his questioning sessions at the end really point to town. He has follow up, he pushes what he thinks and tries t get who he wants lynched. He is trying to solve this game and he is town.

16; ritoky - I think ritoky is a good shot at scum. I had a slight town read on him d1 due to his follow up being so different then his mafia games in carol and in season of the witch. However his follow up to that has been pretty bad up to a point, he was pretty useless n1, d2 and n2. He doesn't really have much push behind what hes saying, however his posts so far in d3 have been ok, his vote analysis wasn't bad and hes giving some decent thoughts to the thread. I'm not sure that he should be the lynch today but i'm still sold that hes a good shot at mafia.

17; DoctorHelvetica - I'm actually leaning scum on DrH right now, his day one while almost everyone called it towny looks a bit weird to me. He tunnels one player all day (chy) who he makes rage quit, inflated his filter by doing so and made up a scum team of chy and geript. Come end of day he can get chy potentially lynched and definitely get geript lynched. However instead he chooses to shenany off of his top two scum reads onto a lesser read leaving his other scum reads alive another day, when confronted with this information he said he was second guessing himself. Since this time he has dissapeared from the thread going from 19 pages of filter in cycle one down to 5 pages since, his return will tell a lot because he has not really been involved in any situations really since d1. Hes a possible scum but he probably shouldn't be the lynch today unless something huge happens.

20; Superbia - I've talked a good deal about superbia at this point, really wanted this lynch yesterday. And really want it today as well, Superbia is not playing like he normally would as town. Barely has any formulated reads and when he gives promises that he will do things he barely does anything and goes away for most of the other time. Seems to be posting angry all the time and is really defensive about all things. This is a great lynch I think if we want to go for a lurker especially today.

Obviously i've removed myself and the dead people in this list as i'm most sure of the alignments on those.

I still have to do vivax but i ran out of time, be back shortly any questions or comments please leave them i'll finish soon.

On March 29 2015 09:59 ritoky wrote:


I was also scum with you two, which is why I find it hard to see you believing what you're typing lol. Maybe it's a lost in translation thing, or maybe my read is superior.

On March 29 2015 10:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Actually, I was wrong. You were never okay with the idea, you instantly replied cautiously.

What made you change from thinking I might be scum for this post to now again reading me town?

Half an hour later, you asked Vivax what he thought about my post. Why Vivax?

Now that you've confirmed you think I'm town, that post can no longer be a reason why you switched your opinion on Damdred, so why did you switch your opinion from being near certain to possibly?

On March 29 2015 10:02 ritoky wrote:


I don't know what you're referring to. You're referring to things I don't really remember, sorry....and I don't have the focus to dig through filters with pregnancy congratulations never fucking ending.

pretty much I said I am okay being PoE'd to eden if he moved damdred in and some1 who was a good town read out. he refused, so I said w/e guess it ain't happening. stuff with vivax don't really remember.

my read on you has been town on the stupid ground that you helped me with a bunch of catchup info early in the game in a non-dickish or pocket way that seemed pretty objective. I found no motive other than helping, so you're town and if you're mafia I am pocketed and losing.

On March 29 2015 10:06 Superbia wrote:
I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3.

On March 29 2015 10:04 ritoky wrote:


damdred has taken up copying a couple of my metrics that I do in terms of vote analysis...which I actually haven't been keeping track of this game for the first time in forever. it has improved both his town analysis and his fake analysis as scum imo. recency thing

On March 29 2015 10:06 ritoky wrote:


you have a list of 5. say you're correct, and say every person outside the 5 agrees to lynch that PoE list (which is largely the case of this game). doesn't that create a 0% chance of mafia victory if all of them are in that pool? is my math wrong here? which means either mafia has to make a play surrounding the orb OR you have to be wrong somewhere. assuming mafia has the orb.

On March 29 2015 18:50 Breshke wrote:
So I dont understand how any of superbias analysis is useful then because if he said he was going to track a vigi then scum wouldn't have cared about him.

I also find the logic weird from superbia that my read might be TMI on him because everyone else thinks he is scum. Then he goes on to say that everyones read on him sucks because he is town. He is also scumming me because he thinks i lurk before deadline even if you check my timezone you can see that deadline is early for me. Feels like he is running out of people to push lynches onto so is now going after me. The problem is this could still be town superbia just POEing and getting it wrong.

I also really dislike that ritoky comments that he doesn't like my vote swap even after i explained it yet never went back to it or said anything else about it,

On March 29 2015 11:00 Superbia wrote:


I need to do shit because the game is going to shit and miss-lynching me basically loses you guys the game. Honestly, if I ever get lynched at any point during the game I think town loses the game. I don't have much faith in you guys solving the game post-flip, especially given how many people are scum-reading me and are willing to lynch me. My town-flip is going to give no info. Like if it was up to me I'd be playing Pillars all the way through, but I can't just abandon town in this position.

Your read on me sux. :D