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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 04:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: Who were you punching? Toadesstern?No. I claimed because i wanted to be listened. I was puching fucking mafia. You are all terrible. AND DIDN'T LISTEN TO ME! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 09 2015 12:18 Half the Sky wrote: Raynpelikoneet, it's effectively cleared right here. This is a quote from the rules, the Infinity Orb section, where the town is referred to as the Nova Corps (the same name as the vanilla town).The Infinity Orb is a special mechanic to aid the Nova Corps and the forces of good against the forces of evil. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Toadesstern is an extremely capable mafia player, and there was incentive for him to fake claim vigilante where he did as mafia. First benefit is securing the mislynch on the vigilante, Vivax. The negative to this is that Toadesstern would be heavily suspected on Day 2, but there is still a reasonable chance of Toadesstern being able to avoid the lynch with good play (not guaranteed, but it is possible). Second, after Vivax's claim, the most likely lynch targets were raynpelikoneet (who claimed tracker to avoid the lynch) and LightningStrike. LightningStrike has already flipped scum, so Toadesstern had additional motivation of protecting LightningStrike. Finally, Toadesstern was a high risk of being shot by the vigilante Vivax. I can see mafia!Toadesstern making tihs play. I also note that Toadesstern stated that if Vivax flipped town vigilante, Toadesstern should automatically be the next lynch. This simply isn't true, but is a good incentive for people to vote for Vivax. This suggests that perhaps Toadesstern was more interested in lynching Vivax than solving the game. As for Artanis[Xp]'s confirmed town list in general, it's extremely good. I feel that Toadesstern is the weakest link. I also highly doubt that the game really is this easy, since I've never yet played in a "solved" game where this was actually correct (though you could argue that we were right in Linux when we thought the game was over, but that's questionable...). While the list makes a lot of sense, and I want it to be true, and it probably is true, I can't give a free town pass to everyone on it. Note that suspicion on Artanis[Xp] somewhat increases if he is proven wrong on any in this town list (but I won't discuss my small suspicions of Artanis[Xp] at this time). Eden gets a 95+% townread purely for gameplay. Vivax gets a 95+% townread for gameplay and his vigilante claim. Rsoultin and ExO_ are 99% town for claiming jailkeeper and cop, respectively. I'm willing to essentially confirm these people as town. The rest of the people on the list are extremely likely to be town, but at some point there might be a small chance I would lynch them. I don't think there can be any argument about townreading the four names I listed, and also myself (more on that later). Fecalfeast could possibly be added to the list depending on the quality of his case on LightningStrike and the circumstances of it, but I haven't read that part of the game yet Damdred, if it makes you feel better, I read your analysis posts and used them as my summary of the pages I missed. They are extremely helpful. And it's the quality and the quantity that makes you town. Honestly, if people skip well-constructed posts like that, they shouldn't be playing mafia in my opinion. Hi, ritoky! Remember last game? I sure do. You won't beat me again. Ritoky claiming VT right away seems like a terrible move as town. If he knows nothing about the game, claiming VT right away seems extremely stupid. I wonder if he went to the scum qt and someone yelled at him to claim VT right away, and he did so. Also, did you guys really have any doubt that someone who claimed scum and posted a baby seal would flip scum? I suppose it's possible that I am mafia here. But this is extremely unlikely. Here's why. It's in spoilers because it's long, and not terribly important unless someone actually wants to lynch me, but I already typed it up, so I might as well post it. + Show Spoiler + I have claimed to have the orb on Night 1, and this hasn't been counterclaimed. Therefore, the orb went to me or one of my scumbuddies. Due to tracking, and coming up with this crazy idea in the first place, it can be safely assumed that I had the orb. I bussed LightningStrike completely. This basically means that LightningStrike asked to be bussed, and the mafia team decided that I would do it. This actually isn't terribly unlikely, as LightningStrike did (before End of Night) say that he was not wanting to play any more, and after end of night he said that he was disappointed at being caught. And I wasn't in the best of spots before this. Still, the chances of this happening aren't amazing. Third, I used the orb. And I got the tracking ability. Each ability can only be used once, and my guess is that even if roleblocked, you are informed what ability was chosen (even if it doesn't go through). So, if I didn't use the orb, I put myself at extreme risk of someone else getting the tracker ability and claiming it. It is possible that the orb will exist for only three nights, and thus not all four abilities will be used, but mafia wouldn't want to count on this. + Show Spoiler + On a somewhat unrelated note, if anyone does counterclaim the orb tracker ability, I accept a lynch if town is not at LYLO or MYLO. The reason for this is upon my flip, the person who counterclaimed can be lynched, and I will 2 for 1 mafia, which is quite good. If you are town and lie to lynch me in this way, you get the "worst player ever" award. If it is LYLO or MYLO, I would refuse to be lynched, for obvious reasons, and whoever counterclaimed me would be free scum (to me, if not to everyone else). But that's a problem I hope doesn't arise. From here, two possibilities arise. LightningStrike killed Holyflare himself, or he didn't. Note that I assume mafia didn't double stack Holyflare, as he was a likely jailkeeper target, and jailkeeper blocks all KP. If LightningStrike didn't kill Holyflare: Despite us already assuming that LightningStrike wanted to quit, and the entire mafia team was willing to bus him, and him being a flipped goon (thus being the best KP carrier ever), mafia was so confident in this plan that mafia didn't have him carry KP. At this point, there's a 50% chance that I can use the orb to bus LightningStrike (rolecheck and roleblock would do nothing to let me bus him, and I can't claim a false ability). By not having LightningStrike kill Holyflare, and by having me use the orb on LightningStrike, mafia is very committed to having me use the orb to bus Holyflare. And right here, we hit a 50% chance that it doesn't work. From here, mafia would probably abort the plan of having me bus LightningStrike. I'm a miserable mafia player, and I don't think I mentioned LightningStrike (or many players, for that matter) a single time in my filter by that point. I would have had to generate a read on LightningStrike from nowhere, and I probably wouldn't have gotten that much town credit from it (assuming I pulled it off with reasonable success, which is unlikely). The better play for mafia would be to have someone else bus LightningStrike and leave me to fend for myself, quite likely resulting in me dying on Day 3 (I don't think I can avoid the lynch as mafia at all, and having not read the thread and already being scumread, there would have been no chance I survived). So mafia was willing to sacrifice the orb and the better KP carrier to end up at a 50% chance of no gain whatsoever. If LightningStrike did kill Holyflare: I didn't target LightningStrike with the orb. This is because of the roleblock ability. Mafia would refuse to take the 25% chance of roleblocking their kill on Holyflare, thus keeping Holyflare alive. Targeting LightningStrike with the orb is far too big of a risk for scum to take here. I put myself at extreme risk of being tracked (because I didn't visit LightningStrike). If I was tracked, two mafia die for free. If I had gotten any of the other three abilities, I couldn't have bussed LightningStrike. For reasons stated above, the best alternative plan for mafia would be to have someone else bus LightningStrike, still leaving me to try and defend myself. Basically, there is an extremely specific sequence of events that must have happened for me to be mafia. I think it's extremely unlikely, but I admit it's possible. If you're wondering why I typed this up to arrive at a conclusion other than me being 100% confirmed town, I thought it would make me 100% confirmed town, but I need to be honest. I'm definitely 95+% town, which is my threshold for giving people a free pass for the game, but that's for everyone else to decide. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 13:36 Toadesstern wrote: Fine, I must be tired XDTrfel, your whole point about how I might claim in that spot as mafia comes down to being scared of vivax? I had no vote on me except for Rayn&Palmar (both very likely scum and I scumread them both) so I wasn't really afraid myself. In fact all the votes that I DID get came AFTER I calimed so if you're trying to sell it that way it's just factually wrong. I think we can both agree that I would have never been lynched d1 no matter what, right? We already know mafia have a roleblocker unless Vivax is mafia because Vivax got roleblocked. Why would I be afraid to get shot by Vivax if I know I have a mate that can just roleblock him? I could have just let him be roleblocked without having claimed myself? I retract those points. So if you are mafia, your claim was made to save your partner(s). Which I suppose is possible, but extremely unlikely. Not out of the question, though. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 13:42 Toadesstern wrote: None, actually?how much conspiracy from Vivax do I have to walk through this time? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
In the Holyflare read, LightningStrike says that he can't find a post where raynpelikoneet is being useless. This seems suspicious to me, based on both the statement itself and raynpelikoneet's filter (though I haven't looked at it closely). Perhaps Artanis[Xp] looks a bit worse because of LightningStrike's read. LightningStrike feels really reluctant to read Artanis[Xp] here, and makes sure to specify when he will be confident in this read. Seems a bit off. The read on Superbia is really bad. It's weak, and it's pure meta (LightningStrike only provided one pure meta read with an actual conclusion, and that was Superbia). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I would rather you analyzed LightningStrike's list post, and/or people's responses to it. That is more concrete, more useful, and has no downside. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Raynpelikoneet was scumread by mostly everyone, and with good reasons. He left more questions than answers and was probably the most abrasive person in the thread. I apologize for being biased against you, but after 285 pages, raynpelikoneet was quite scummy (especially with the tracker claim proven false). About raynpelikoneet's claim. He claimed tracker on Day 1 in a scenario where he was potentially the leading lynch candidate. Then he typed /unconfirm (spelled incorrectly), which was widely assumed to be a rescind of the tracker claim. Then claimed to track someone who was roleblocked. I think basically everyone agreed that if he changed his claim, he would be automatically lynched (though this wasn't said, of course, but I know that I certainly felt that way). And now you come in and claim vanilla town. I'm sorry, but especially given your scumplay last game, you're going to have to do something incredible for me to not want to lynch you (due to raynpelikoneet looking so bad). I don't need to lynch you tomorrow, but raynpelikoneet left you in a really bad spot. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 14:26 rsoultin wrote: Oh, that's what you meant XDlol he knows what i'm talking about ^^ presents and claiming early Glad it's one of the parts of the game I'm familiar with. I feel sad for actually having a big effect on that game and not actually knowing the majority of what happened in it. Eden, it's not relevant, just a bit of banter. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I have no clue if you actually have the orb or not. And I'm going to ignore it entirely until Day 3. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 15:14 Toadesstern wrote: Because I'm assuming mafia will kill the cop with a 100% certain shot, not a random thing.@Trfel Why wouldn't he just shut up about it as mafia and point it at the Cop? He's probably town for it, but with more information coming in less than 18 hours on the subject, I'd rather just leave it alone until then. You guys can analyze it as much as you want, and I'll read it, I just don't feel like thinking about it at the moment. Plus, you've already proved your analysis far superior to mine, so I'll trust you. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 15:23 sicklucker wrote: I would say that rsoultin knows what she is doing, but then again she did save Onegu instead of Holyflare, so....If they rb me kill rstou and exo. There risking a save on exo. Yo should probably save exo tonight btw... | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 15:39 sicklucker wrote: Toadesstern and rsoultin are right.Rstoulin if your a j/k you only have 1 night action to submit let me explain why. + Show Spoiler + They will only roleblock me or you. If they roleblock you who cares what you submit. BUT If they roleblock me that means they cant rb exo so they have to kill him. SO YOU SAVE HIM. Do you understand? If they rb me they have to kill exo or he can get a check. SO HES THE ONLY SAVE YOU SUBMIT It's best for you (sicklucker) and rsoultin to not say much until end of night. Please don't try to argue this. Please. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Ow ow ow, my eyes, they burn!.... I knew I shouldn't have opened that spoiler. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 24 2015 17:05 Eden1892 wrote: This XDif i'm onegu's mason partner i'm gonna flip a huge shit | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm actually not really sold on a Superbia lynch. When I look at his filter, it seems pretty good to me. It seems better than his play in Mini Mafia Down Under 2 (though that game probably isn't very representative of his skill), so I'm not confident that he is mafia yet. Why are people scumreading Superbia? (quotes are perfectly fine) | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 25 2015 01:57 Vivax wrote: Long hiatus?The fact super comes in after a long hiatus and starts posting so carefree is actually a towntell. FF's tryhard case on LS after VE called him scum and LS wagon was picking up some steam is a scumtell. Artanis pretending to scumhunt in regards to FF is a scumtell. He just played in Mini Mafia Down Under games 1 and 2. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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