EPT[T] Jack of All Trades Mafia - Page 7
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Also the correct play for Robik is to 100% hold his shot. Shooting there was really really stupid. holding his shot was always a 100% lose for Robik because it was endgame before reaching d3 EVEN WITH double mafia kill on d2. It was between shooting mafia and killing the ninja during n2. If he had no idea who the other ninja was he has to shoot mafia to at least try and avoid endgame, even if unlikely. He proably should not have claimed though. On March 10 2015 09:45 Half the Sky wrote: Ahhh so you are asking why I lynched SL instead of Sandroba? Thought I explained in obs qt. I could not decide between the two. They both looked bad. [...] so sheep the two townies that conveniently both thought one of the two options you had is the most likely mafia in the entire game, who both conveniently got shot by mafia. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
16 people alive(6 vs 2 vs 8) => Mafia lynch => 15 people alive (5 vs 2 vs 8) => night action, if mafia got a vig again it's even possible endgame despite the mafialynch because 5 vs 2 vs 5, ninja lost without getting to day3, without using his shot. Had robik shot a townie in an attempt to use his shot it would have only looked worse. Goes to show that geript really didn't understand ninja wincon or has more information that isn't available to us and robik. Like wether or not Mafia wants to doublestack, wether or not Mafia has a vig this night again. That's information we don't have. On the other hand, with Sandroba dead that's mafia down to 5, if town manages to get 3 townies on the mission and kill geript that's mafia down to 4 and thus KP reduced to 1 KP + vigs. Thus stalling the game by a lot, making town like him and at least getting a chance to win by chance rather than outright losing before even reaching d3. The shot robik did was the by far best thing he could have done from his point of view. Holding his shot would have been the worst thing he could have done because that's always, in all possible scenarios a lose for him because the game ends before he uses his shot because it stops before d3, thus literally being 0% chance to win had he hold the shot. Wether he should shoot mafia or try to hit mafia depends on how certain he is on his reads. If he has no idea who the 2nd ninja is shooting mafia is the best thing he can do in that situation to at least try and get some lucky win somehow like HTS did. Sure that's crappy but better than 0% chance to win. You just were angry because he shot mafia and you were mafia but it was the best possible thing for him to do in that sitaution, there's really no arguing about that. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 09:56 kitaman27 wrote: I think he should have shot in that situation but not at sandroba since he was almost certainly mafia at that point. If I were him I would have shot into the scummiest ninja suspect. Maybe someone like kurumi or slam where they had a decent chance of being third party, but the game wouldn't end if he was wrong. After the shot, claiming isn't all that bad since the 2nd ninja had already shot. It informs mafia not to shoot him and town not to lynch him. yeah he could have shot slam/kurumi but that as well comes down to wether or not he has confidence in his reads in the first place. The fact that he didn't opt to give it a last try and did not just go for his best ninja-shot shows that he went for safety before anything else. If that's what he's going for because he's so unsure about his reads that's perfectly fine imo. The claim is questionable. I thought it's good too, Sandroba disagrees and thinks he should not have claimed. It's a bit tricky. The claim makes it impossible for mafia to claim ninja because anyone claiming ninja after robik's claim would have been lynched for being a fakeclaim from mafia and it makes the town like robik. Has it's ups and downs | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:07 geript wrote: First things first: Killing mafia during the night lowers KP. I'm pretty sure Artanis commented on this in thread even. So there's no point to do so during D3. Second, let's pretend Onegu (or one of his proposed team) is mafia. Mafia will use the lynch as KP and just kill an obvious towny. Then shooting mafia does him absolutely no good as he will just get endgamed after being shot. Like mafia will just pretend he's not even in the game. Third, let's pretend the 3P gets elected (who will obvious fail it). Then we just kill Robik most likely out of gratitude because it removes extra votes etc. Fourth, if all town gets elected, he knows not to shoot any of them. Let's also just look at the situation. Pretend he uses his shuriken; his only way of getting the other ninja killed is to do it via lynch (which is essentially the same as shooting them) OR by having mafia put NKs on the other ninja. By killing a mafia (and where 1 mafia is outed), mafia KP is reduced so he's unlikely to get his wish. Like there's literally no situation where I can think of that Robik is in a better spot by specifically shooting Sandroba instead of aiming for 3P. Yes, it helps him not get endgamed sooner, but it doesn't ever actually help him win the game. you completly fail to realize that he would not have gotten a lynch on d3 because the game ends before d3 and thus everything you mentioned there is just wrong. Yes, mafia loses KP once down to 4, that's the reason he shot mafia. To try and get a d3 lynch instead of just losing without getting another lynch. So no, what he did was the best he could have done (assuming he has no idea who the ninja is). I'm not going to argue wether or not he should have used his shot to shoot ninja, that's obviously best play but holding his shot like you said would have been the worst possible scenario for him. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:16 sicklucker wrote: I think when two people are pitted against each other (me and tube) but both INSTANTLY jump to the conclusion its fake instead of going after each other then that third party is always mafia. I think people ignored this fact too much it wasn't fake at all. It was just not alignment indicative, why should it be? He picked Onegu because there was 0% of Onegu being ever lynched in that Cell. Everyone was townreading him during d1. So dishing out a green check on someone who already was townread but almost everyone should not have mattered at all. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:18 geript wrote: He was alive on D3. Mafia in order to endgame can't win until D4. It was 8v2v6. Killing 1 town doesn't make endgame because he still has his bullet. And if he's going to shoot mafia during the day. Then he should shoot during the night because he might actually remove a Mafia role. Like if you want to argue that he has to shoot mafia with it to prevent endgame, then it's 100% better to shoot that mafia player at night (after roles are given out). take a look at it from his point of view for a sec, because 8v2v6 IS endgame for him, even with spare KP to doubleshot.
That's already endgame even with mafia on 1 KP. Had he not shot mafia there would have been 1 more KP for mafia. There's no way he gets to day3. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:24 Keirathi wrote: Was everyone townreading him day 1? I don't remember that. When i made my case/points about him being mafia during night 1, no one contested them or anything, and afaik I didn't remember anyone hard-towning him at that point anyways. Maybe like 1 person. Rayn and I both had him as town. Pretty sure there were more than just us two? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:27 sicklucker wrote: If there mafia its "fake" to me. I never really considered that mafia would be trying to trick the own spirit ill admit. Because I honestly didnt think a town spirit would give them anything oh silly me it was even pointed out by Artanis in the thread that that's possible when Kita asked? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:30 Keirathi wrote: I just looked back. You had him as null, then rayn said "I feel like he is kinda playing like I expect" and then you said "I agree". Those are like the weakest town reads ever :p I had him as town in my sheet that I posted though. Sure it's a super weak read but when in the same Cell as someone labeled "KILL IT WITH FIRE" as well as two nulls that's more than enough lol | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:27 geript wrote: Toad. This post. If he shoots mafia on N3, he not only can get a role that's been given out (thereby further delaying endgame) but it also reduced KP. Like if you want to argue that shooting during D3 is better than shooting during N3. Then you're just wrong. There's literally no benefit to shooting during D3 instead of N3. Oh I get it... I thought you were arguing that he should have hold his shot until the day-cycle that would have come now had it not endgamed because you were so angry about it. Well wether he shoots during day or night hardly makes a difference for you, except like you said that he can make you lose a role but do you really think Syllo would have given Sandroba an item ?  So don't really see the point there. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:36 Keirathi wrote: Your sheet had him as null? Or did you post an updated one and I just didn't scroll down far enough? Edit: This was the one I was looking at: http://i.imgur.com/qCM4NLA.png why does noone read the fucking sheet.... I include some basic explanations to it for a reason. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:43 Keirathi wrote: Playing devil's advocate: what if sandroba was town, and he did actually check Onegu (which I still think would have been a solid check overall). Sure, your scenario is possible (and was the case), but why aren't the other scenarios possible? Why, in this specific case, is that scenario the only one that makes sense and make sandro scum? There is more to making an argument than just seeing a scenario and thinking "That makes sense, that must be how it happened!" this exactly. That's what I meant in obs QT with 'SL and tube are carrying town d2 but for all the wrong reasons'. You two had it completly figured out (SL started derping later on) but there just was no reasoning behind it. The check Sandroba did had no indication towards any alignment whatsoever and should have been treated just liked that. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:45 Keirathi wrote: Oh, herp derp. Somehow I read all the other ones, but didn't see the note about Onegu granted it's an increadibly weak read but the first thing I said to artanis when I got shot was something along the lines of "wow, that Cell is pure cancer... anyone could be mafia in there ... except for maybe Onegu who looks ever so slightly townish" but if you have him in contrast to the other 3 he was the shining beacon of towniness | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:53 Keirathi wrote: Meh, I disagree. Tube was the shining beacon of townness in that cell Man, that day 1 only being 24 hours really fucked me  I was having a good game going into the end of night 1, but stupid exams. That time I missed should have been in the night phase instead of day After the day started? Yeah tube looked really good and was obviously town but before or when it started Onegu was the only one I townread, which is when you have to decide who to pick for your cop-check. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 10:58 Keirathi wrote: FWIW I don't trust syllo/sandro soulread anymore after they fucked with me in Catastrophe by both being mafia :D I mean Sandro really isn't that hard to read... and if you're unsure, wait until d3 and lynch him if he's still alive. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 11:08 kitaman27 wrote: Having TL Mafia LXVI as his most recent town game really didn't help the cause. Sometimes tough to tell between "I'm not posting because I'm too busy" and "I'm not posting because I'm mafia". His lazy post about Breshke should have probably made the difference I suppose. the laziness wasn't really it. He was doing a lot more in this game than what you linked, just that what he did in this game was all really bad stuff. I probably would not have mafiaread him had he posted less. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I always pick the opposite of what I read VE as when I try to get his alignment. Think VE is town? -> MAFIA Think VE is mafia? -> Town it's not stupid if it works... it's just really hard to explain | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On March 10 2015 11:19 LightningStrike wrote: Also Toad when you said that people usually give bad reasons to call you town and defend when they are Mafia was that case for me when I meta'd you? yeah I remembered that as something I considered slightly scummy but thought it's okay because you co-hosted that game and thus it's pretty likely for you to share some information like that. There's no way I would have pushed for you, my townread on you was quite massive otherwise on d1. | ||
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