• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 13:48
CET 19:48
KST 03:48
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Intel X Team Liquid Seoul event: Showmatches and Meet the Pros10[ASL20] Finals Preview: Arrival13TL.net Map Contest #21: Voting10[ASL20] Ro4 Preview: Descent11Team TLMC #5: Winners Announced!3
Community News
[BSL21] RO32 Group Stage0Weekly Cups (Oct 26-Nov 2): Liquid, Clem, Solar win; LAN in Philly2Weekly Cups (Oct 20-26): MaxPax, Clem, Creator win62025 RSL Offline Finals Dates + Ticket Sales!10BSL21 Open Qualifiers Week & CONFIRM PARTICIPATION3
StarCraft 2
General
RotterdaM "Serral is the GOAT, and it's not close" [TLCH] Mission 7: Last Stand Weekly Cups (Oct 26-Nov 2): Liquid, Clem, Solar win; LAN in Philly Intel X Team Liquid Seoul event: Showmatches and Meet the Pros Weekly Cups (Oct 20-26): MaxPax, Clem, Creator win
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament Monday Nights Weeklies SC4ALL $6,000 Open LAN in Philadelphia $3,500 WardiTV Korean Royale S4 Crank Gathers Season 2: SC II Pro Teams
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ?
External Content
Mutation # 498 Wheel of Misfortune|Cradle of Death Mutation # 497 Battle Haredened Mutation # 496 Endless Infection Mutation # 495 Rest In Peace
Brood War
General
SnOw on 'Experimental' Nonstandard Maps in ASL Finding world war 2 allied hope / final players? BW General Discussion [BSL21] RO32 Group Stage [ASL20] Ask the mapmakers — Drop your questions
Tourneys
BSL21 Open Qualifiers Week & CONFIRM PARTICIPATION [ASL20] Grand Finals Small VOD Thread 2.0 The Casual Games of the Week Thread
Strategy
Current Meta How to stay on top of macro? PvZ map balance Soma's 9 hatch build from ASL Game 2
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Dawn of War IV Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread ZeroSpace Megathread General RTS Discussion Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread SPIRED by.ASL Mafia {211640}
Community
General
Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread Dating: How's your luck? Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Canadian Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
White-Ra Fan Club The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Korean Music Discussion Series you have seen recently...
Sports
MLB/Baseball 2023 TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion 2024 - 2026 Football Thread NBA General Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
SC2 Client Relocalization [Change SC2 Language] Linksys AE2500 USB WIFI keeps disconnecting Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List Recent Gifted Posts
Blogs
AI is so fuckin funny
Peanutsc
Challenge: Maths isn't all…
Hildegard
Career Paths and Skills for …
TrAiDoS
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1839 users

Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 8

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 6 7 8 9 10 Next All
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 21 2015 03:23 GMT
#1375
Too. Easy. Too. Easy. Every time I come back and look at the posts last night and today, I can't shake this feeling.

Ely couldn't either. He was NK. Presumably because scum doesn't want us having a confirmed town around but...

Palmar. If you really are town and this has all been one town v town v town feud, the sooner you post, the better. I have a theory I'm toying with but I won't post it until I can dive and verify it.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 21 2015 05:47 GMT
#1376
Maybe I'm getting impatient here but the lack of response is a little troublesome, too.

Thread temperature check. We still have more than 1 real life day worth of time to reassess and reanalyze anything that may have felt amiss.

Red flag: no one is even remotely thinking about doing this. Ely hinted at it but yeah, he's gone.

Been rereading and rereading both Tere's case on Trfel and Trfel's case on Tere. They are both very strong, very well thought out cases. The more I look into and cross check each one, the more each one feels markedly more Townie to me. Yes, Trfel basically responded to and picked apart Tere's case on him.

But I wanna win this damn game. And I won't do that taking the easiest way out. A wrong case is not alignment indicative.

Trfel - Tere is no longer playing. Little to nothing to go on regarding Palmar. I honestly have to ask you if you could see yourself lynching anyone other than Palmar. Because I'm going to spend the next 24 on a case that I think is key to winning. And it will be even more important should Palmar still end up being lynched and flipped town.

I want you all to put tunneling aside. One of us that is still alive has contributed quite literally nothing in this game. And there were wayyyyyyyy too many things regarding this player that got lost in the shuffle over Tere v Shining, Trfel v Tere, etc. I'm on a tablet(double shift at work tonight) but once I get some time on a computer at home tomorrow, I'll work on getting it up.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 21 2015 13:45 GMT
#1380
On February 21 2015 19:54 zlefin wrote:
I've been well aware of that possibility.
But I still think the Tere slot is the best lynch for today.
If that lynch turns town, then I'll do a serious reconsideration of things.


You have more than 24 hours left in this day phase. Why not start doing so like I am? Scum would love for us to chalk this up as an easy win, walk away and then go full panic mode with nothing to show if we get screwed with a town flip.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 21 2015 15:14 GMT
#1382
On February 21 2015 23:08 Palmar wrote:
Shining, do you intend to vote for me?


As of this moment, yes. But I've been up all night at work, home now, I'll be back in a few hours after sleep.

Give me a reason not to vote you. If you're town, you should be less concerned on where I'm voting and more concerned with scumhunting and finding an alternate lynch instead of yourself.

Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 00:46 GMT
#1405
Case incoming. I'm not lynching Palmar. Just a heads up. Trfel, I want to win this game. Today. You are most content + biggest filter. And you swear I'm an obvious universal townread. We can win this. Please, please, please give this case a chance. You, too, Zlefin. Palmar...I really hope I'm freaking right. Tere's play is actually going to save me from lynching you.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 02:53 GMT
#1408
It should be out within the hour. I didn't realize how much more I'd find on top of what I already saw. Yuck.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 03:53 GMT
#1410
TOWN LISTEN UP. ESPECIALLY YOU, ZLEFIN AND TRFEL. PALMAR IS A MISLYNCH. CASE INCOMING.

I was thinking we could lynch Palmar and if its a mislynch, I could run this case but being one of the apparent universal townreads right now, I probably wouldn't be around D4 in the case of a mislynch today.

Something about Palmar mentioning the "best lynch" really gave me some pause. Tere really honestly wasn't going to be the best lynch today. All you have to do is look at her filter. But with no one pressuring or diving JJB, or anyone else, and town being so ready to settle on a lynch, no one was going to realize that. Let me state this clearly.

The worst thing Town can do today is settle on a lynch based on one case, albeit a good one, BEFORE EON EVEN HAPPENS. ESPECIALLY AFTER A SCUM FLIP. Look at ALL interactions with the flipped scum. I'm just as guilty as the rest of you when it comes to tunneling Tere and believing she is scum. Trfel's case pretty much hammered that and everyone seems content to follow it. SO, not only will I be casing Jar Jar Bink's as the Mafia Goon but I will also be following up with why Tere is more likely to flip Town.

JJB has done a stellar job of being under the radar, this entire game. With the Silver scum flip, I decided to re-evaluate his entire play from D1 on. I will do my best to keep this case easily readable and concise.

DAY 1
+ Show Spoiler +
D1 - His entrance to the game is very quiet and forgettable, opening with a question that doesn't need to be asked or answered here.. Looks like he just wants to look active and contributing early. Throws out useless reads that say nothing here.. Summary: Trfel is either scum or town(duh), my reaction was expected, even though RSo and Trfel both felt off on it.
From there, we get more nothing posts, one of which is him clearly stating his insights are trash. If your wincon is to lynch scum as town, I don't care how trash you think your reads are. You share them, you push them, you let other town tell you where you are right or wrong. Especially in a newbie game. This is how you learn. You dont just sit back and let other Townies carry you to a win.

Next up is the Hier Bridges reaction. Almost everyone decided that it was a bad idea for town and would take away from two main scumhunting tools: vote analysis and analysis of intehelpful s. I say almost because there was one person very onboard with it. Jar Jar. Next few posts he talks about nothing BUT until RSo and "excel testing" convince him it isn't helpful here.
He claims to see that the Bridges Method is scum-favored in that post. If that is the case, why are his next few posts STILL ABOUT THE BRIDGES METHOD AND TRYING HIS HARDEST TO GET HIER TO CONVINCE US TO USE IT. Makes no sense.

He towns Hier for most of the reasons we all scummed Hier. At one point, Trfel clearly states he will not town read Hier off of the Bridges strategy alone, which is exactly what JJB did. Keeping in mind scum know exactly who is town, it looks like JJB knows Hiers mislynch is picking up traction. So he does his best to make sure everyone knows he is the one Townreading Hier.Proof

JJB follows that up with sheeping thread sentiment. He wants to see more from Zlefin's reads(I pushed that) and ElyAs. He is continuosly sheeping and gauging thread temperature on where his next mislynch wagon can go, in case Hier defends himself out of his. At one point, without anyone asking him, he switches my read from null/suspicious to STRONG TOWNREAD here. PLEASE READ THIS POST AND ALL OTHERS IN HIS FILTER BEFORE IT. It is a rather weak explanation, no progression, no examples of where or how I scumhunted. But I'm strongest townread now! There is no explanation or prompting for this post...except that a few posts before that one, I posted this.

I clearly call for the thread, namely town, to keep a close eye on Trfel and JJB. Bam, his next post concerning me is a strong townread. Scum like to give free townreads to town for towncred. I really wish I had caught this unwarranted strong read earlier. Might I add that on D1, most people had me as suspicious or null. So JJB's reads are pretty original in that everyone else believes the contrary

Moving on, ElyAs scumreads JJB. JJB's stance on ElyAs is "I like his posts.". RSo picks up on this and JJB responds to it here.. Note that JJB can't clearly explain why he likes Ely's posts as town. As scum, you can't come out and say you like someone's posts because you know they're town. So he comes up with yet another painfully weak townread, though not as strong. He asked 2 questions(scum can do this too) and he scumread JJB. He had a reason to, if he remembers correctly. UM, WHAT? If someone is scum reading me as town, you better believe I know damn well exactly what post and what point was used against me. And personally, I will never, ever like a persons posts if they're scumming me(see: my Tere reaction). Not until I can explain objectively if I understand why they read me that way.

IRONICALLY ENOUGH, JJB KNOWS THIS. He says so as he takes up my gauntlet and defends me from Trfel questioning. Post..
He defends my being weary of Trfel's opening. He sort of lies in the next point. He points out his scum game and says I probably haven't read it. Feels like a temp check if JJB is already thinking about NKs. Who can spot a JJB scum meta? RSo(killed N1) and apparently myself, if I read his other scum game. I wonder if I would've died N1 had I said I did in fact read that game. Whatever, wifom. He says I'm damn good at catching him on out other forum. Thanks for the ego boost, bro, but I'm really not. I'm almost positive I've mislynched you more than that 1 time I caught you. 3rd point is he disagrees with my Zlefin case. Won't scum me for it but it is weak. OK. That's pretty null. But 4th point. My defensiveness could be scum like. But he uses meta to explain that I normally play this way, which is true. Its proven in my interactions with Trfel and Tere.

The main red flag is, why is he coming to my aid? I realize Trfel asked everyone their thoughts, but before this, JJB's read on me was weak. Strong townread but no support. It isn't lost on me that he knows I'm suspicious of him now. Him white knighting me feels like he's trying his damndest to pocket me.


FML I HAVE TO LEAVE WORK NOW. JJB's filter was worst than I expected. Trfel, I might bump you for largest case this game. There are a few other small things on D1 worth mentioning but I really think D2 is where he messed up. I will finish the D2 portion, vote analysis on D1 and D2(better vote analysis, please disregard my last one, looking back it feels a bit rushed) and explanation of my Tere/Palmar townread when I get home from work.

Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 04:03 GMT
#1413
Its not even half done, Trfel, rest will be up before you come back tomorrow.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 04:05 GMT
#1414
On February 22 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote:
My main worry about lynching jarjarbinks is that he always looks scummy. It's sort of like sicklucker, I have a really hard time trying to get a read on them because of this. Rsoultin has said multiple times that jarjarbinks always gets scumread, and she usually has to defend jarjarbinks really forcefully. So my main request for your case isn't to show that jarjarbinks looks scummy, I would want you to show that jarjarbinks looks more scummy than normal, and why that means that he can't be town. And I don't really know how it's possible to prove that, which would make me really uncomfortable lynching jarjarbinks.

Again, I'll take a look, and I'll read jarjarbinks' filter, but it's a hard lynch to be confident about just by its nature.


The voting analysis and D2 analysis will help with that. If not, and Palmar lynch goes through and flips town, one of us will die tonight. The other HAS to push JJB. Look at Zlefin filter compared to JJb. Look at Tere's compared to his.

Just wait, I'll put it all together.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 04:10 GMT
#1415
Ebwop: 2nd paragraph of the D1 spoiler. The fragmented word is analysis of interactions. Idk how the word helpful took its place.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 04:17 GMT
#1417
Look at everyone's filters, Trfel. Try your hardest to untunnel and see Tere coming from misguided town. I see it. And her effort put into the game can't be denied. Even Zlefin's filter, which I honestly had a few problems with, wasn't half as scummy as JJB's was. Even for JJB, this is so bad. And I don't mean the actual play. I like playing with him.

I've just never scumread JJB this badly before. K I'm oiutmtil I get home, later
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 05:42 GMT
#1423
JJB. Really?

Alright, I'm home. I won't be responding to JJB's defense or Trfel's analysis of the first part of my case until the rest of it is up. I purposely posted that first half to see what the reaction would be and it's exactly as I expected. Trfel is looking at it critically, and JJB...well, I'll add JJB's defense to the end of the case.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 06:10 GMT
#1426
An hour, maybe hour and a half. Obviously I'd understand if you want to go to bed. If you'd like to wait to analyze the rest, I wouldn't mind, although getting it up tonight would allow me to see what other troubles you have and leave you more to think on tomorrow.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 07:46 GMT
#1428
JJB CASE CONTINUED

N1

This one's short and sweet. JJB has 5 posts throughout the night phase. Throws out that due to votes, he would be most suspicious of Trfel, Ely, Silver, Tere. Hints at possibly being NK'd because "mafia might not like Star Wars" which is off, because he was far from universally townread. Note that out of these 4 names, Silver is there but is not one of the 2 shots he later comes back with to answer Tere's question. He prefers shooting Ely and Tere. Cases Ely, Cases Tere.

JJB said himself his reads are bad, right? So the logical conclusion is he is wrong on these. And Ely flipped Doc. I think Tere flips VT. This leads into D2, as his posting was just minutes before EoN. Kind of convenient, since general town consensus was that RSo would be best at reading JJB and he posted reads on Ely and Tere right after.

NK is WIFOM but I can't help but find it worth mentioning that a Silver-JJB scumteam is most threatened by RSoultin.

D2/Interactions With Silverarte
+ Show Spoiler +

After the reads on Ely and Tere, JJB proceeds, once more, to defend his strongest townread in me. Defends my Hier vote. I can't shake the feeling that if JJB's reads are all bad according to him, how am I his only correct one? I didn't really find my play leaning strong Town until post-Tere interaction. WHY IS HE TRYING TO DEFEND ME SO HARD? I'm not even in any immediate danger here. Then this post right here just screamed red flag in my brain upon rereading it. Banding together lynch deaths and night deaths? They have two totally different significances when it comes to vote analysis. Especially since it is generally accepted that NKs are WIFOM. Seems like a scumtell that all deaths look the same.

But mostly, for D2, I want to ping on his case on Silver. When it came to Ely and Tere, he had 3-4 bullets on each one, thought out, pretty solid. He was asked for a Silver read and forgot it for a while, even says so himself. Then he finally does and its so weak and non-committed, considering how weak Silver's stance was at that point. Here is the post. Calls her forgettable(parroting RSo), feels everyone else's case on her was good and she didn't really have any good cases herself. Hints that the most we'll get from Silver is from these recent posts. Gives her cred for a lot of effort in scumreading town, "which is odd because everyone was leaning town on her until then." He is still trying to give her BoD.

He eventually summarizes here. He makes excuses for her, then calls them excuses. Asks anyone scumreading Silver to ignore her early posts and read her based on her content post. And that first line of that last paragraph sounds funny. "I had Tere #2 in my lynch list before but I think Silver is more lynchable." So your #2 is still your #2 instead of replacing your #1. But now that Silver is pressured, he is setting up to bus.

I'd also like to note that Silver N1 dropped this gem. Just chiming in to make sure people know he's been scumread as town before. It looks like she's trying to deflect off of Jar Jar.

The next post of interest is his response to me wanting him to give me a read on Silver. He never does. And the post makes no sense, I wish I would've noticed sooner. Post. He asked me if I'm still that suspicious of Tere. I respond saying I will get nowhere pushing her after my argument with her and would rather look for the other, more obvious scum. His response? I am right. She is the most inactive, it'll be easy to mislynch her if she's town. Later flips could determine if she's scum.

WTF IS HE TALKING ABOUT HERE? He is panicking. His scumpartner Silver is outed. Now he is Silver-centric, bus-centric and no longer trying to scumhunt. He forgot HIS OWN LINE OF QUESTIONING TO ME ABOUT BEING SUSPICIOUS OF TERE. He's THAT concerned with agreeing with someone else thinking Silver could be a mislynch. 2 mins later, he must've realized his mistake because he leaves the thread. NEVER GAVE ME A READ ON SILVER.

At this point, we go into D2 EoD and his vote on Trfel over Silver. He comes in, wonders why people are voting Trfel, hints that he hasn't read thread(scumtell). Says defensive Trfel looks scum. READS ARE NOT CONSISTENT. I'M DEFENSIVE D1 AND I'M TOWNED FOR IT. Then another post hinting at Silver being a mislynch. BUT, give him time. He might just kill the lurker. He's torn. He can't decide if he pushes the mislynch and outs himself, or buses his partner for towncred. Finally decides he can't get away with mislynching Trfel due to content, filter size...huh. Before doing that, he asked me if I townread Trfel for his filter size. Interesting.


I'm still not done but gawd, this thing is so damn long. But it's worth it. I just really hope that you read this, Town.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 07:49 GMT
#1430
EBWOP: In the spoiler. 2nd paragraph. The sentence should read:

Gives her cred for a lot of effort in scumreading Tere(I originally wrote town), "which is odd because everyone was leaning town on her until then." He is still trying to give her BoD.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 07:55 GMT
#1431
On February 22 2015 16:47 Trfel wrote:
I think that I'll have to go to bed after I get through that post. I'm really tired.

But seriously, thanks a bunch for being willing to go through all this filter diving and case making.


No problem. I want to win. I'll do a better D2 vote analysis here shortly, as well as get around to responding to your concerns regarding JJB's D1. And I'll get to his emotionally charged defensive post, as well. His tone and posting this Day Phase in particular has changed quite markedly.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 08:45 GMT
#1433
D2 VOTING ANALYSIS

My ORIGINAL D2 voting analysis is in the spoiler for reference. It needed to be expanded on. I let JJB fly under the radar on this again.

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 20 2015 09:40 The Shining wrote:
As much as I don't feel this is necessary, I did this N2 in the last Newbie Mini and I'm doing it here.

Vote Analysis:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2015 21:57 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: Counting Down

ElyAs (1): zlefin
Silverarte (1): Trfel
Tere (1): Trfel, The Shining
Trfel (1): Tere

Not Voting (3): Silverarte, ElyAs, jarjarbinks

Currently, ElyAs is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).

Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.



Preliminary votes of the day. Scum Silver only has 1 vote on her. Its Trfel. That's a really bad bus. But it gets better.

Show nested quote +
On February 20 2015 06:03 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: Counting Down

Trfel (2): Tere, ElyAs
Silverarte (2): Trfel, zlefin
Tere (1): Trfel, The Shining
ElyAs (0): zlefin

Not Voting (3): Silverarte, jarjarbinks

Currently, Trfel is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).

Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.


So Tere was on Trfel. Stays on Trfel. Keeps pushing him. Continuously leaves herself an open leeway stating Silver is also scum. But really seems dead set and intent on pushing Trfel first. Now at this point, I could maybe still believe Trfel bussing Silver. Until he actively pushes Silver as an alternate lynch to himself instead of Tere. I'm sorry, I don't see scum Trfel bussing his partner AS ROLEBLOCKER WITH A CLAIMED DOC. I would expect scum Trfel to push Tere. Hard. Especially with the early case and suspicions on her.

Show nested quote +
On February 20 2015 08:02 Half the Sky wrote:
Day 2: This Final Hour

Trfel (4): Tere, ElyAs, Silverarte, jarjarbinks
Silverarte (3): Trfel, zlefin, The Shining
Tere (0): Trfel, The Shining
ElyAs (0): zlefin

Currently, Trfel is set to be expelled from South Park Elementary. Day 2 ends in at 00:00 GMT (+00:00).

Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone.
Remember, voting is Mandatory. You may NOT abstain.


At this point, scum Trfel IMO would've conceded. Tere got cocky and started throwing gladiating out there once more. Was probably 100% confident in the mislynch going through. What happens? 10 mins before EoD, ElyAs shows up and screws everything up for her. Switches to Silver. JJB goes through Trfels filter, compares it to Silver, she is objectively a much better lynch. Now she's the only one besides Silver on Trfel. If she stays there, the scum team looks so damn obvious they should just concede right then.

So she busses Silver. But its too late. Damage is done. IMO, one of the last 2 votes on a scum flip is usually scum bussing to screw vote analysis. Unfortunately for scum Tere, the other of the last 2 votes is claimed Doc.

I'm sorry this looks so bad but I'm on a tablet, getting posts out is difficult. Getting them to look pretty is hard. But this needed to be posted before the NK.

If town really feels like obliging the Gladiating between Tere and Trfel, I say Tere goes first.



Notice how in the early voting, neither JJB nor Silver had voted yet. This is an important lynch for scum. If JJB begins to swap votes back and forth, it becomes suspicious. Silver doesn't vote yet because all 3 wagons besides hers are mislynches and only have 1 vote. She isn't sure which one she wants to hammer, so she holds back her vote until one gains traction. JJB is also hanging back.

Moving on, we see votes after Ely's Doc claim. He's no longer a viable wagon. Now everyone is voting. Except the scumteam. They see my wasted vote on Tere and know I'm town. They wait to see if my vote is going to stay there or if it moves to see if saving Silver is possible.

Lastly, we have the ultimate vote count. The Trfel wagon. Tere, ElyAs, Silver, JJB. Boom. Scum is hammering the mislynch. But immediately afterwards, both Tere and Trfel case Silver. Hard. Alarms go off. He has to bus, which he does 4 minutes after Tere's case in the voting thread and the same minute Trfel posts his case. And he is so flustered he unvotes Silver to vote Trf again to then unvote Trf and vote Silver again. That's just off. He's jumpy.

That's it for vote analysis expansion. Coming up next, responses and if I'm not sleepy yet, Tere's filter dive. If not, that happens tomorrow.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 10:16 GMT
#1434
Actually, I'll analyze JJB D3, as well, while responding to Palmar.

On February 22 2015 07:48 Palmar wrote:
Anyway, tomorrow's mission is to figure out who screwed up

  • Option 1) Is it Trfel with his extended dialogue, willingness to co-operate and discuss.?
  • Option 2) Is it jarjar who summarized his thoughts in a single concise post to explain his stance?
  • Option 3) Is it shining who requested that I focus on scumhunting instead of defending myself?
  • Option 4) Is it zlefin who refuses to play the game because he has already set his mind?


We'll discover the answer tomorrow!


1) No. Those things alone are why I have him as town, along with tons of original reads, strong pushes, not only discussing but leading it. But also thinking critically of anything else discussed instead of dismissing it.

2) Yes. Because I can't seem to give up this case on JJB and keep seeing clues to it everywhere. He starts D3 with a nice goodbye to Tere. Generally I like the friendly tone but here, I could see it coming from guilty feelings as scum. Sheeps the Trfel case and says he's going to point out everything he likes/agrees with. But then immediately rescinds this on the basis of sparing Tere's feelings. I don't feel that's a good enough reason to stop giving your thoughts and contributing to the thread on the case involving the day's lynch.

And that one post. It feels too calculated. I'm not sure I can chalk it up to more than a tonal read but that's not the JJB I'm used to playing with. For one thing, WoT is not really his style. Take, for example, his reactions to Trfel's Tere case, to Silver's case. He quotes them in sections. This one is just...too different. It's in the spoiler.

+ Show Spoiler +
On February 22 2015 01:44 jarjarbinks wrote:
I think Palmar is trying to get us to tell him our biggest points on him so he can properly defend himself without addressing every single thing that's been put on him. It makes sense, and I think it's fair considering the condition he started this game in.

I honestly don't want to go to far into this because I want Tere to come back and play more games. You do deserve to know what points are the most important to defend yourself though. The point that struck home for me the most was Tere's switch on Trf when Silver was looking worse and worse. In Tere's reads, she clearly has Silver as very scummy and part of the mafia team with Trf. I think town Tere would have gone after Silver first, while telling people to look at Trf's filter and make her case on Trf the next day. Instead, she goes after a mostly townread (by everyone I believe) Trf with her case while the other scum is literally at the chopping block. The mafia Tere is much more likely to try to go after Trf to save silver for another round, while at the same time taking down one of the more active towns.

Shining, I think your idea is a good one. We have time to relook at things just in case Tere/Palmar is town. I'm really struggling to do this because Tere looks so mafia right now, but I put down my thoughts.

Trf has been making most of the strongest cases in this game, which really strengthens the argument that he is town. I think Tere's case showed how it might be possible that he is mafia, but his last mafia game is nothing compared to this one if he actually is mafia. He's been carrying the team on this game.

I have been mostly townreading you throughout this game, and looking back through your filter, it's hard for me to see you being the mafia. If you were mafia, the activity you showed in Day1 to your rant is drastically different from your rant-now which would definitely help your end game which poses a red flag? The lack of people really scumreading you late game could also be a red flag. But I definitely believe your reasoning behind your activity change and your play throughout the game has been towny to me.

Zlefin appears towny since D1. Looking back through his Day1 filter, I can see how town zlefin played D1 as well. I guess my only concern here would be that nobody has scumread him since D1 really (besides silver I guess). Most people have kind of left him alone. As a new player, you would think mafia would look at him. But he has looked very towny since D1 I believe. As far as carrying town, I think he has done the least out of the three (besides me) yet still appears very towny, so I think I would consider him very suspicious after a relook if Tere/Palmar actually turns town.

I could see myself being mafia if I was any of yall lol I always get voted for in these games because of my play and I haven't yet. I had an outlier D1. I waffled on Trf D2. A lot of my reads were not original. My voting analysis has me as primary suspect after day 1 and still suspicious play in D2. And yet I haven't been scumread much lol



So he decides to tell us his thoughts on Tere, after all. And as I read it now, I find it interesting that he fits into the exact same scenario. JJB's vote switch and initial vote look just as bad, if not worse, as I showed in my vote analysis. I think Tere was tunneled on Trfel. JJB says that she was always suspicious of Silver and town Tere would've pushed her before Trfel. However, look at the difference in content and contribution between Silver and Tere. If Tere is playing for town and really believing her case, Trfel is a much bigger threat as scum to keep alive another day. Silverarte is just easy cleanup. In my experience, tunneling that hard on a player such as Trfel(almost universally townread, large filter, lots of content) is suicide for scum. It is much more likely that misguided town believes their case wholeheartedly and tunnels. In short, I don't like why he likes Tere as the lynch. There could be so many other reasons. Trfel had a case full.

He likes my idea of stepping back and looking at everything fresh. And gives us this big WoT post for it. But nothing has changed. So it's a bunch of nothing. He's been towning me but seems to raise a red flag on me for having a different rant. When did I rant outside of the Tere argument? He says Zlefin is towny because he sees how he can be town. Notices no one has scumread him since D1. That's a decent point, besides my early pressure vote on him. But he also says besides Silver. Huh. Why is that important? It's WIFOM. Does she scum him early to keep bussing options open as scum or to see if she can push him to a mislynch? It wants to lead you right down into the rabbit hole. Not helpful. JJB repeats himself and says he looks towny since D1 again. He's trying to appeal to the free townread towncred point I've mentioned before. Also mentions Zlefin hasn't "carried" town so he'd be a suspect if Palmar flips town. JJB falls right into that category, as well, but he acknowledges it. JJB tends to acknowledge his scummy moments a lot this game. It's as if he's watching his every move and making jokes about it to deflect.

He even goes a step further and lightly and jokingly cases himself. More WIFOM for Town to drown in. Finishes it off with he hasnt been scumread much. It's almost a challenge.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 10:20 GMT
#1435
3) It would've been nice if you had taken some time to actually read at least some of the thread with some sort of thoughts or scumhunting, btw.

4) There is something very plain and honest in the way Zlefin is sure of the Tere lynch and not willing to engage with the Tere/Palmar slot. I personally can relate to being a bit unsure of how to respond to replacements, especially when they replace the player that was in your eyes a clear cut lynch decision. It's similar to the tunneling I saw in Tere regarding Trfel. Zlefin has put what effort he can into this game, his filter has clear cut scumhunting examples and he actually directed us onto the Silver lynch quite early in voting.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
The Shining
Profile Joined December 2014
United States2406 Posts
February 22 2015 10:51 GMT
#1436
Responding to this and going to bed. I work 4 hours before EoD, I'll have my tablet with me. I bolded my responses under each point.

On February 22 2015 13:40 jarjarbinks wrote:
Saw that case on me by the Shining. I'll let him finish his case, but there were a few notes I would make mostly for the Shining:

1. This is confusing coming from you about my previous games. You've been in all my previous games. I don't have a "meta scum game".
Oy. I just caught what happened here. I was victim to formatting error, FFS. THIS IS WHY FORMATTING POSTS IS IMPORTANT. This is the only part of my case I'll rescind. Upon looking into it, I was talking about a post where it says your last scum game was Horn. That was Trfel's post I see now, not yours, but the formatting error confused the hell out of me.
PLEASE DISREGARD THAT PARAGRAPH.


2. You calling my Day 1 reads weak is also confusing coming from you. YOUVE BEEN IN ALL MY PREVIOUS GAMES. Think of a read I had that was actually strong in your opinion.

See, I don't like this. You're trying to appeal to a meta read from me instead of providing examples of consistent weak D1 reads. One thing I've learned here is that meta reads are inconsistent, especially in Newbie Games. Sure, it can help, but I personally do not invest much in it. Like you said, I've never seen a scum game of yours here on TL. You could very well play it exactly how you play Town. The point is, I DON'T KNOW and I'm not nearly confident enough to trust that alone.

3. This is sappy, be warned. I defended Hier mostly because I empathized with him. He came out with a strategy that say wasn't the best but it was different. He obviously was trying. Everyone comes down on him and makes him feel like trash. At one point I could have sworn you guys were going to get him to quit. And don't even think that he wouldn't, you guys already got two others to quit. In my first game on here, IN A NEWBIE GAME, you guys literally made me feel like crap.

Fair point. This can still come from either alignment and I've mentioned before that guilt in scum is not unheard of. This is an appeal to emotion and damn good guilt trip. But mafia is a game of deception in nature. This alone is far from alignment indicative.

4. In some places in your case, you insult my intelligence. In others, you make act like I can actually have a decent strategy. Please pick one.

More nothing. I never tried to paint you as "stupid" scum or "smart" scum. Just scum. This is an oddly defensive tone for things I didn't outright say.

5. I have played with you for 3 games. I've seen you constantly scumread anyone that scumreads you, especially day one. Granted, you can change your behavior, but that is why I defended you.

Ok, relying on meta again. Do you have any other concrete way of townreading me this game besides knowing exactly who is town as scum?

6. YOU'VE BEEN IN ALL MY GAMES! I ALWAYS CALL MY READS CRAP! Do you just ignore me in all my games? I just don't get it.

More meta referral. It's as if, in a Newbie Game, the third one we played together, he really thinks I'm confident enough to be sold on his town meta already. The other forum does not count. It is a completely different paced game, different meta, much slower pace. If you saw my posts over there, you wouldn't know it was me. It is very possible that scum JJB went in with the sole intention of trying to play exactly like town JJB. I can't use any of these meta points alone to townread you the way you can with me, sorry.

I'm sure you have a great case that you will spend hours on, and I'm glad you are scumhunting that much. But please think objectively. Stop trying to sell your case and post what you actually think about it.

I do, at least in my opinion. And you can see the hours spent on it from start to finish. Like I told Trfel, I want to win. And I have been thinking objectively. This took so long because I spent the first 24 hours running Zlefin, Trfel and Tere's filters through this same microscope. Yours came up dirtiest, by a long shot. And believe it or not, I believe in what I'm selling.



Realistically, I did all of this knowing it was a damn hard longshot to not see Palmar lynched today. However, the longer this sits here readily available for eyes to see should that mislynch occur, the better chances Town has of winning.
Always and Never are two words you should always remember never to say.
Prev 1 6 7 8 9 10 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
LAN Event
18:00
Merivale 8: Swiss Groups Day 1
SteadfastSC163
IndyStarCraft 113
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mouzHeroMarine 331
White-Ra 173
SteadfastSC 163
IndyStarCraft 113
UpATreeSC 13
ForJumy 0
StarCraft: Brood War
Shuttle 713
firebathero 228
NaDa 8
Dota 2
qojqva3494
Dendi1150
League of Legends
Trikslyr44
Counter-Strike
pashabiceps935
Other Games
FrodaN1564
Beastyqt1071
RotterdaM483
Lowko247
Fuzer 202
Mlord192
mouzStarbuck154
ArmadaUGS137
C9.Mang061
QueenE44
Organizations
Counter-Strike
PGL289
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 18 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Adnapsc2 19
• Reevou 2
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• sooper7s
• intothetv
• Dystopia_ 0
• Kozan
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• WagamamaTV593
• Ler83
• Noizen37
League of Legends
• TFBlade750
Other Games
• imaqtpie989
Upcoming Events
PiGosaur Monday
6h 12m
Replay Cast
14h 12m
WardiTV Korean Royale
17h 12m
LAN Event
20h 12m
OSC
1d 4h
The PondCast
1d 15h
LAN Event
1d 20h
Replay Cast
2 days
LAN Event
2 days
Korean StarCraft League
3 days
[ Show More ]
CranKy Ducklings
3 days
WardiTV Korean Royale
3 days
LAN Event
3 days
IPSL
3 days
dxtr13 vs OldBoy
Napoleon vs Doodle
Replay Cast
4 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
4 days
WardiTV Korean Royale
4 days
LAN Event
4 days
IPSL
4 days
JDConan vs WIZARD
WolFix vs Cross
Replay Cast
5 days
Wardi Open
5 days
WardiTV Korean Royale
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

BSL 21 Points
SC4ALL: StarCraft II
Eternal Conflict S1

Ongoing

C-Race Season 1
IPSL Winter 2025-26
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 4
SOOP Univ League 2025
YSL S2
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025

Upcoming

BSL Season 21
SLON Tour Season 2
BSL 21 Non-Korean Championship
Acropolis #4
HSC XXVIII
RSL Offline Finals
WardiTV 2025
RSL Revival: Season 3
Stellar Fest
META Madness #9
LHT Stage 1
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026: Closed Qualifier
eXTREMESLAND 2025
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.