EPTStudent Mafia V - Page 88
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geript
10024 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either: You guys were wrong OR My model sucked some big balls. I went with my model sucked some big balls. I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people): Me: 43% mafia... lol Breshke: 41% mafia Rsoultin: 31% mafia Shining: 30% mafia Everyone else: 29% mafia This is without a +/- 3% buffer. But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time. I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either: You guys were wrong OR My model sucked some big balls. I went with my model sucked some big balls. I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people): Me: 43% mafia... lol Breshke: 41% mafia Rsoultin: 31% mafia Shining: 30% mafia Everyone else: 29% mafia This is without a +/- 3% buffer. But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol Don't know how right your model is there, bro, but if it's dependent on other people's reads, we're doing so well this game it might as well be trash -_- Sorry. Just irritated with myself. Anyway, talk to me about what you think without the stats? | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:23 jarjarbinks wrote: Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time. I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either: You guys were wrong OR My model sucked some big balls. I went with my model sucked some big balls. I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people): Me: 43% mafia... lol Breshke: 41% mafia Rsoultin: 31% mafia Shining: 30% mafia Everyone else: 29% mafia This is without a +/- 3% buffer. But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
Voting for a dead towny adds X percentage Being voted for by a dead towny adds Y percentage etc. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Unless votes are widely scattered, not everyone on a town mislynch is going to be scum, even if the counterwagon is scum. It's mathematically impossible. And I'm not convinced Breshke actually is scum. With town vs. town it's even less alignment indicative who was on the mislynch wagon. I try to look at why people are voting what they're voting -_- Obviously that didn't work out so well for me this time. Eh, going to bed. Revisit this with fresh eyes in the morning. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:47 geript wrote: So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. He told you, geript ^^; The baseline is 2/7, which comes to 28.5714% or rounds up to 29%. That means if you were to completely randomly draw a name out of a hat they'd have a 29% chance of flipping scum. It would help if you told us by how many percentage points each of those situations were increased, JarJar. Like, EoD votes on a town vs. a scum, the dead people scumreading still living players, and the night kills' reads on living players. Do you factor in town reads or just scum reads? Is it just the most recent opinion of the dead players? Do you look at the scum players reads? Things like that. But yeah, he did already explain his model. The +/-3% is JJB's personal opinion of a player. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
On January 25 2015 11:50 geript wrote: It's really odd the Breshke isn't flipping the fuck out our anything. Like he was literally 1 vote off of getting lynched. It's like business as usual. That's really funky. Is this alignment indicative at all? It isn't if i was scum i would react the same way as town because as both alignments i wouldn't want to get lynched. I didn't freak or rage at anyone because how could I? I as afk for like the last 16 hours of that day I knew shit was going to go down. For DP + Show Spoiler + On January 19 2015 05:23 Breshke wrote: GB if damdred wadsnt an option who would you go for? This is my first post after waking up it is at 6:53 am my time deadline is at 8:30 am. My dad is a tradie and has recently left his buisness to go and work on his own so i have been helping him out every couple days. I wake up at 6 when i go to work with him and get ready to leave the house around 7. After this it involves a ton of driving during which i was phone posting in the thread. I have a Samsung galaxy S2 which is a fairly old phone ive had it for a number of years now and it does this weird thing where it randomly heats up using all the battery and killing the phone. So after an hour of trying to keep up with the thread my phone starts fucking up so i turn it off to try cool the battery and it doesn't turn back on hence battery is dead. Also we arn't lynching anyone tomorrow because i assume JJB dies tonight and then mafia needs to kill someone who is not confirmed. Also damdred i think both of your scum from your PoE are wrong. I know my filter is crap this game but seriously look at RSo's how can you think she is scum can you explain it without PoE? Honestly i feel the reasons you cleared DP and geript to be fairly weak and don't see how you are ignoring everything else that has happened in the game because of it. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
Also how sure are you on your the shining read are you sure you arnt jsut giving him a pass for being a newbie? All that shit I said about DP seemingly defending LM from nothing i still think is true but he might just have seen something i didn't. Also he seemed genuinely happy when people started changing their votes to me so i have me hesitations. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 25 2015 17:33 Breshke wrote: RSo did yout ake another look at my filter do you still think im town? Also how sure are you on your the shining read are you sure you arnt jsut giving him a pass for being a newbie? All that shit I said about DP seemingly defending LM from nothing i still think is true but he might just have seen something i didn't. Also he seemed genuinely happy when people started changing their votes to me so i have me hesitations. Meh. I'm doubting myself a lot right now. I did look at your filter again and I just don't see it. Like, your Day 1 play didn't impress me, but nothing felt off about you at EoD. You looked like you had your scumread and were actively trying to push it. I've said multiple times you've looked a lot better since Day 1. Both you and LM seemed suspicious of DP with an LM town flip. Shining thought LM was scum. You did. I did. JJB did. Geript agreed, too, but still didn't want to lynch him today for whatever reason. (He might have said it, but all I remember is him saying Damdred would be more satisfying.) Damdred thought he was scum. DP thought he was town for a long time and I'm still not getting why. I need to reread the posts near EoD and am putting it off till tomorrow. I'm kind of in the same camp as you. I'm inclined to wonder if it's TMI in regards to DP townreading LM. But I'm not sure if I just didn't see something obvious, or it's because DP is scum. Shining...I just don't see Shining as scum. I have yet to see a post that jumps out at me from him that suggests he's scum, and his voting was pristine Day 1 too. Damdred's weird reaction to the lynch has me all sorts of paranoid. I don't want to look at it now, though, cause part of it is entirely OMGUS, I'm not gonna lie. I honestly don't think he's this bad as to jump right to scumming whoever led a lynch on a town with nothing else to support it. | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
Honestly. The dude looked townie day on because of the way he could change gears on his read with with new information proving his read wrong. Scum just don't change gears that fast in response to new information. They just don't. I have explained all this before. I honestly STILL have no idea how all of you bads scum read him based on his filter. AND HE WAS SHITTING TOWNIE RAINBOWS FROM HALFWAY THROUGH YESTERDAY. Honestly. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:18 DarthPunk wrote: I'm not scum for Town reading LM. You are just bad for scum reading him. Honestly. The dude looked townie day on because of the way he could change gears on his read with with new information proving his read wrong. Scum just don't change gears that fast in response to new information. They just don't. I have explained all this before. I honestly STILL have no idea how all of you bads scum read him based on his filter. AND HE WAS SHITTING TOWNIE RAINBOWS FROM HALFWAY THROUGH YESTERDAY. Honestly. You may be right. Obviously you were right that he was town. I personally see nothing incredibly townie about changing your mind when you're told that you've completely flip-flopped the facts that is the basis for your read...however maybe that's a problem with my own understanding of how scum and town plays. Nor do I see anything incredibly townie about a bunch of questions that lead nowhere. I probably was not going to listen to him no matter what he said yesterday, and that's my own fault, but I'll take another look when I'm less irritated to see if it was glaring me in the face or not -_- Do you have to yell all the time? I don't respond well to it ^^ | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:18 DarthPunk wrote: I'm not scum for Town reading LM. You are just bad for scum reading him. Honestly. The dude looked townie day on because of the way he could change gears on his read with with new information proving his read wrong. Scum just don't change gears that fast in response to new information. They just don't. I have explained all this before. I honestly STILL have no idea how all of you bads scum read him based on his filter. AND HE WAS SHITTING TOWNIE RAINBOWS FROM HALFWAY THROUGH YESTERDAY. Honestly. Yeah i agree he looked more townie at the end of last day phase especially when he started reconsidering his read on me. My point is i don't agree with how early you townread him and call me bad for that idc. Do you agree we no lynch tomorrow DP? | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:23 rsoultin wrote: You may be right. Obviously you were right that he was town. I personally see nothing incredibly townie about changing your mind when you're told that you've completely flip-flopped the facts that is the basis for your read...however maybe that's a problem with my own understanding of how scum and town plays. Nor do I see anything incredibly townie about a bunch of questions that lead nowhere. I probably was not going to listen to him no matter what he said yesterday, and that's my own fault, but I'll take another look when I'm less irritated to see if it was glaring me in the face or not -_- Do you have to yell all the time? I don't respond well to it ^^ Scum are invested in their reads. It takes a lot of energy and time to build a safe read on someone as scum and you don;t want to just clear people who you could mislynch like he did. Especially when you are newer it is DIFFICULT and time consuming to just backtrack like that as scum. Which is why I thought it was townie. Then once he became engaged in the thread it was really obvious that he was town and I have multiple posts in my filter explaining why. You could be right and it is an experience thing. Or you could be scum. Like the way you refused to adjust or even contemplate adjusting your position on him is the DIRECT OPPOSITE of the townie thing that LM did. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:33 DarthPunk wrote: Scum are invested in their reads. It takes a lot of energy and time to build a safe read on someone as scum and you don;t want to just clear people who you could mislynch like he did. Especially when you are newer it is DIFFICULT and time consuming to just backtrack like that as scum. Which is why I thought it was townie. Then once he became engaged in the thread it was really obvious that he was town and I have multiple posts in my filter explaining why. You could be right and it is an experience thing. Or you could be scum. Like the way you refused to adjust or even contemplate adjusting your position on him is the DIRECT OPPOSITE of the townie thing that LM did. -shrugs- You've been wanting to scumread me all game. Enjoy. You have your opportunity. Shining and Breshke were never going to be my switches. Maybe Damdred. I know that I can be wrong, but I don't switch to townreads if I can avoid it -_- | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:30 Breshke wrote: Yeah i agree he looked more townie at the end of last day phase especially when he started reconsidering his read on me. My point is i don't agree with how early you townread him and call me bad for that idc. Do you agree we no lynch tomorrow DP? Well I was right wasn't I? Like I town read him. I got him to engage with the thread and shit town rainbows and tried to not lynch him and I was right to do that. So I suppose it doesn't matter if you don't agree with my reasoning because it was correct. Anyway I am not gonna talk about this anymore I will get too mad. If you want to know why I thought he was town read my filter. Why do you want to no lynch? Because you read on Mafia scum wiki that it was the correct mathematical play? here is my position on no lynching. We No lynch: Then scum are gonna shoot the most competent townie in the game which 1000% will be geript or myself. And then whoever out of geript and myself does not get killed will have to deal with an incompetent town with one less competent townie in the game. So no. The idea of leaving things even further in the hands of you lot whilst praying you lynch the right person from the comfort of the OBS Thread does not fill me with confidence at all. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
On January 25 2015 18:38 rsoultin wrote: -shrugs- You've been wanting to scumread me all game. Enjoy. You have your opportunity. Shining and Breshke were never going to be my switches. Maybe Damdred. I know that I can be wrong, but I don't switch to townreads if I can avoid it -_- No. You keep doing off putting things all game and then I re-read your filter and realize it is long and it seems like you are doing stuff. But the point is. You keep doing things that are off putting. | ||
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DarthPunk
Australia10857 Posts
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