EPTStudent Mafia V - Page 90
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 01:40 Damdred wrote: Of course I set up my Poe because I was convinced breshke is Scum here and I still am especially with how breshke came into night phase, Geript right it was really funky. And I love this you just make me more sure by every post by pulling everything you can that I'm Scum. LM was acting towny in hindsight more so than breshke. So yes I switches off. And your total reluctance to not only not switch to breshke but not switch to ANYONE is pretty telling. Breshke should have been what, cursing everyone out? He was acting more towny in hindsight than breshke which is why you changed your lynch vote? Again you are directly contradicting what you said when people asked why you changed your vote. Why should it matter in your world of an rsoul/bresh scumteam if I don't switch to anyone else? Lol, you've seen me play scum, Damdred. I do not suffer from the inability to reason out how pretty much anyone could be scum (which may be my overall problem with scumhunting in general, being too paranoid). | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 01:41 Damdred wrote: I'm sorry if dp was Scum he would kill Geript over GB unless they were Scum together. How is this not WIFOM? Seriously -_- | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
Lm was acting towny, I don't like ark lynched which is what we were doing. Geript found good point, dp found another it was time to go. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 01:50 Damdred wrote: It's not because dp respects Geript and knows Geript has the greatest chance to catch him over new 's. Now if you wanted to you could talk about a Geript dp team, which you have never done even though you say you reason out every person etc. Lm was acting towny, I don't like ark lynched which is what we were doing. Geript found good point, dp found another it was time to go. I've thought of a geript/DP scumteam, and maybe it's just me, but that's a ton of interaction and blatant ties to one another that if one is lynched would make it ridic easy to find the other. Just doesn't seem that viable to me. Possible, but unlikely. I find it more likely that one pocketed the other and hid behind the WIFOM of not NKing their pocketed town than I do the idea of running the table together. Damdred, BS meter. What you're saying now simply does not line up with what you said when you first switched your vote. | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 01:58 Damdred wrote: Thought progresses change and I'm not reading my own filter to make it line up. Geript made a good point, dp did as well I switched. I have enough doubts especially this game to move. -_- A dead phone/time and having you and dp in a null list with lm as scum are good points? I'm not saying they're terrible ones, but they're so groundbreaking that they merit a complete reversal in your reads? You say you think bresh and LM both can be good lynches while simultaneously setting up a poe that makes sense only with an LM town flip, and now try to say that LM was obviously town and that was why you switched? Either you're experiencing an early case of alzheimers where you can't remember something as simple as what you were thinking less than 24 hours ago, or it seems a hell of a lot like you're capitalizing on this town flip as much as you can. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:47 geript wrote: So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. Ya well its obviously due to change. But I guess you know that. There's two parts to it. First part If you vote for the lynched townie, it causes a 2% increase, if the lynched townie voted for you, it gives you a 23% increase. If the guy that got killed at night voted for you, then that's a 16% increase. Second part: You have to factor in wagons and strength of the votes. So if you look back to the waffle lynch, there was 8 people on waffle, 2 on GB, and 2 on me. All the people who voted waffle get a 2% increase to start with. But since there was such a big wagon on Waffle, I used a factor of (4/12) and multiplied it by the 2% to get the actual increase. I found 4/12 by subtracting 8/12 from 1. I did this because on wagons mafia has less of an incentive to park their vote on the lynched guy. So for day 1 all the waffle voters only got about .7% increase because of their waffle vote. The less experienced/good the town team is, the less you can use the model. It also helps to have more players in the game. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:08 jarjarbinks wrote: Ya well its obviously due to change. But I guess you know that. There's two parts to it. First part If you vote for the lynched townie, it causes a 2% increase, if the lynched townie voted for you, it gives you a 23% increase. If the guy that got killed at night voted for you, then that's a 16% increase. Second part: You have to factor in wagons and strength of the votes. So if you look back to the waffle lynch, there was 8 people on waffle, 2 on GB, and 2 on me. All the people who voted waffle get a 2% increase to start with. But since there was such a big wagon on Waffle, I used a factor of (4/12) and multiplied it by the 2% to get the actual increase. I found 4/12 by subtracting 8/12 from 1. I did this because on wagons mafia has less of an incentive to park their vote on the lynched guy. So for day 1 all the waffle voters only got about .7% increase because of their waffle vote. The less experienced/good the town team is, the less you can use the model. It also helps to have more players in the game. JJB, help me out here. I'm OMGUSing Damdred. Are my points valid or am I being a stubborn ass again? >< I know you're town, and I respect your intelligence, so can you double-check me real quick? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:44 rsoultin wrote: Don't know how right your model is there, bro, but if it's dependent on other people's reads, we're doing so well this game it might as well be trash -_- Sorry. Just irritated with myself. Anyway, talk to me about what you think without the stats? I do feel like most people's reads haven't been the best in this one. Very confused. I didn't get much out of LM's filter either. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:12 rsoultin wrote: JJB, help me out here. I'm OMGUSing Damdred. Are my points valid or am I being a stubborn ass again? >< I know you're town, and I respect your intelligence, so can you double-check me real quick? Hold on I'm catching up. I'm assuming you have an argument on him in this thread somewhere? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
o.0 can you tell me where you got your percentage increases from? the 23% and 16%? just as a point of curiosity | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
Theresistance to the flip makes it highly likely if not assured that breshke is Scum. Also lm said he was town right as voting ended and it was believable | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 25 2015 16:49 geript wrote: To be clear, the reason why it was bad was that you never explained how people got to X%. You know. Like: Voting for a dead towny adds X percentage Being voted for by a dead towny adds Y percentage etc. Ya I could see that. I think it was because I knew I needed more datapoints and didn't want people to be hung up on certain %'s that change when I get more data. I could see how people would have taken it for a "he's just making things up" kind of deal. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote: Hold on I'm catching up. I'm assuming you have an argument on him in this thread somewhere? I do. It's basically a running argument with him at this point -_- But yeah, I quoted his vote switch to Bresh and stuff and you can see what he's been saying since Night 3 started. Just be my sanity check if you don't mind. Thanks a bunch, bro. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:16 Damdred wrote: Obviously when I set up my Poe I was convinced lm was flipping town, which was after voting had closed btw. Theresistance to the flip makes it highly likely if not assured that breshke is Scum. Also lm said he was town right as voting ended and it was believable The "resistance" to the flip was me. And saying that DP being there at EoD made him town, that you were probably wrong on geript, that you could be wrong on LM and just tunneled, that you're 95% sure on Shining, all before the flip while saying both LM and Bresh were good lynches was not setting up your PoE before the flip? | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
I said well before flip I suck at reading Geript, so that's no change. Not sure where you are going with this, the way lm acted right at the end really showed town. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:15 rsoultin wrote: EBWOP: o.0 can you tell me where you got your percentage increases from? the 23% and 16%? just as a point of curiosity Regressions. Took old games and found the change in %'s from what the %'s should have been if the person voting for town was killed etc. And that 23% is beyond what the maximum % increase would be. The highest it would be in this game is 23% times 12/13 which is 21.2%. That would be if the lynched guy parks a solo vote on someone he thinks is mafia while no one else believes him. Probably will never happen. Sorry if its confusing. It would be easier to explain it if you saw the model. Honestly I feel like my model is useless in this game though. It's not going to help us find scum. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:34 jarjarbinks wrote: Regressions. Took old games and found the change in %'s from what the %'s should have been if the person voting for town was killed etc. And that 23% is beyond what the maximum % increase would be. The highest it would be in this game is 23% times 12/13 which is 21.2%. That would be if the lynched guy parks a solo vote on someone he thinks is mafia while no one else believes him. Probably will never happen. Sorry if its confusing. It would be easier to explain it if you saw the model. Honestly I feel like my model is useless in this game though. It's not going to help us find scum. :/ Eh, I'm sure the more games you add to it and the more we play in general so you can tweak it, the better it will get. But the human element is always gonna make it imperfect. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On January 26 2015 02:33 Damdred wrote: I've been saying I'm sure on shining for a long time now. That isn't changing, unless things happen obviously. I said well before flip I suck at reading Geript, so that's no change. Not sure where you are going with this, the way lm acted right at the end really showed town. Mhm. So tell me, then, why being around at EoD makes DP town unless LM is town. That statement came well before your bresh vote while you were still on LM. Oh, and while you were still saying both were good lynches. ^^ | ||
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