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TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells
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On December 08 2014 05:44 sicklucker wrote: 200, word essay? Like I never went to college but I think I did those in grade 3 thats not alot of words. Haha yeah, I just wrote a 150 word essay in like 30 minutes. Oh well, it might be a difficult topic or something. | ||
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On December 08 2014 06:59 rsoultin wrote: Ah, yes, mafia by filter. First to 80 posts each day gets an automatic town pass! I endorse this idea. | ||
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On December 08 2014 16:54 KelsierSC wrote: oh no Xatalos was the guy I spent all my first game trying to lynch turned out he was cop. I seem to have a talent for pinging out the cop as town Well, your case wasn't entirely unreasonable. I basically did focus more on survival (from night kills) rather than lynching Mafia. And I may be slightly less focused on establishing my own innocence as blue when I can just prove it by claiming if need be. Still, it would have been worth looking at my meta and how it was highly unlikely that I was Mafia in that situation. | ||
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On December 09 2014 08:46 KelsierSC wrote: So i have noticed something with this set up. If you are scrooge just claim. On December 09 2014 08:55 KelsierSC wrote: Ah ignore my scrooge comment i misread one of the roles Something like this is really dangerous to say because it might actually out the blue role in the worst case. And the fast backtrack indicates that there wasn't any real thought behind this "plan". However, it appears that it was just a reaction test: On December 09 2014 09:33 Fecalfeast wrote: I don't expect you to have read my other town games but I've gotten exponentially worse as town. GB do you have a comment on the current votes or discussion? It actually seems like KSC could believe what he's saying here. The way he goes after Fecalfeast after executing his "master plan" feels genuine enough. So I'd tentatively put KSC in the town camp. I sure hope that Mafia didn't somehow find the Scrooge because of this though. Moving on to more pressing issues, there's Half the Sky. Her posting has been somewhat suspicious from the very first post: On December 09 2014 08:52 Half the Sky wrote: Greetings everyone! 27NB, I'm also female, join the club and I drew town as well, so victory together! Good luck and have fun with your date. As for me, well, shopping for my significant other is done and dusted. Some years it's easier than others. Kelsier, can you please explain the Scrooge claim post? Agreed with HF, what are you seeing in this? It's almost a template Mafia first post. The first paragraph is purely focused on making friends and blending in ("you're town, I'm town, let's not lynch each other!"). As a minor point it's somewhat suspicious that she's immediately referring to another player as town. That would only truly make sense if Half the Sky is Mafia and 27ninjabunnies is town. The second paragraph is just fluff. The third paragraph merely asks some meekly toned questions without much apparent thought behind them (there's even another buddying attempt towards HF included). What's worse, I can't find anything related to these questions from her after her first post. Even though she responded to posts from KSC soon after. All in all: a completely useless post that appears somewhat useful, but in fact only furthers Mafia agenda (blending in, survival, gaining influence). Her following posts are mostly fluff (bad in itself when there's a post limit) or reactive answers to pressure. As she got some slight pressure on herself, she soon sheeped onto 27ninjabunnies (the easiest target) as her target: On December 09 2014 09:21 Half the Sky wrote: Damdred, once I read that, I've put her in scumpile for now. Froggy's post to me is a null, although that sentence is contradictory. I think he was trying to say that policy lynches are stupid in comparison to a scum lynch, and then he says "in the absence of a decent slip." Though poorly worded, I can still understand him and I believe he was the one who said before the game that he was returning here after 2 years ago or something, so I wouldn't blame him for saying that. I cannot comment on how things were 2 years ago as I wasn't around then. What I Vivax's post is also null to me. Again very straightforward, I don't see any reason to sort him either way. Then a very non-committal suspicion on Damdred: On December 09 2014 09:25 Half the Sky wrote: Damdred, regarding the list post...honestly that's a lot of reads for this early D1. For now though, take what I say on that with a grain of salt because I have not looked at too many of the people's posts she listed except Templar's story, etc. I mean calling Kita iffy for just saying hey? Hmmmm....what is the norm for him? That seems odd at face value, and not knowing him at all. That's basically the extent of her contributions. I'd say that her posts so far have been mostly wasted fluff posts and some of them are actually pushing Mafia agenda (blending in, trying to appear useful without actually doing anything, and lastly spreading some very weak suspicion onto Damdred). So I think Half the Sky is quite likely Mafia here and seems like our best D1 lynch. ##Vote Half the Sky Regarding 27ninjabunnies, there are two reasons that make me think she might be town: 1) She easily gathered a ton of votes and the rest of the votes have been scattered around everywhere. This makes me think that the Mafia team is supporting her lynch or at the very least content with it. If that wasn't the case, I think her wagon would have been a bit weaker or at least there would be a competing wagon. Right now it just looks like 27ninjabunnies is heading to be lynched and the Mafia team is happy / doesn't care about it. 2) If Half the Sky is Mafia, I feel it's quite unlikely that 27ninjabunnies is Mafia as well. Pre-flip association, I know, but I don't think scum Half the Sky would easily pile on a scum 27ninjabunnies wagon or that she would first start casually discussing with 27ninjabunnies and refer to her as town. So I don't really think 27ninjabunnies is a good lynch for these reasons. Another Mafia candidate I feel would be LightningStrike. This is basically her whole contribution so far and it's a pretty useless listpost: On December 09 2014 11:42 LightningStrike wrote: I just got back and here my current reads Town: HF,Templar, OWS, Slam, Damdred, rsoultin, FF Null: 27ninja, HTS, Ritoky Scum: sicklucker sicklucker doesn't seem like he normal town self for this type of game with the post limit and he just throwing a lot of fluff more than anything trying to get the limit early I need more posts from 27ninja and Ritoky to confirm which side they on HTS doesn't seem like himself idk why I feel like that. As soon more people post in the game I will make more reads to add the people. sicklucker is the main scumread and the reasoning for that is very, very weak. Not to mention there are many townreads without any reasoning whatsoever. About this #PresentGate... sicklucker seems very town from his confused claim. I don't think I've ever seen Mafia claim their role early on D1, especially in such a badly executed manner. | ||
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On December 09 2014 20:56 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah Xata, lightning could be scum. What do you think about Half the Sky though? I think Lightning is closer to null than Half the Sky. By the way, I don't like Vivax's filter too much either. I hope he makes a great comeback if he's town. | ||
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On December 09 2014 20:57 Holyflare wrote: Its hardly "vivax has inconsistent reads" like you make it out to be though. How is there nothing there in bunnies posts???? Are we even reading the same game. At least state why my case/points are wrong before denouncing them based on nothing. Also in regards to xatalos, bunnies having a 1/4 of the votes doesn't really mean anything and there are people pushing in different directions. This means nothing about bunnies alignment at all though, mafia might not even have a voice in the thread yet so far too much wifom. Your points on hts are... Ehh.. Just not appealing? You pretty much base it all on one post which isn't even that scummy and then say the rest of her posts are fluff but they aren't really in the context, she also has no suspicion of damd and the association of bunnies/hts doesn't apply at all with the evidence. I also don't know why you even have a kelsier read in your post at all, that looks really out of place. My point was that there are other people being voted, but the votes are scattered without any kind of focus. If Mafia wanted to do something about 27ninjabunnies being lynched, they would likely try to guide the town in another direction. So far I haven't really seen that. It doesn't completely clear her, no, but it's a worthy argument. Not sure what you're talking about regarding Half the Sky. Her filter really is full of fluff and reactive posting under pressure. And she certainly did show (weak) suspicion towards Damdred, if you read her filter or my post at all. I don't know why you're even defending her when there isn't really anything to defend about it. I generally dislike bluefishing so that's why I specifically noticed KSC's posts while catching up. I guess I can't really call it as bluefishing though when he almost immediately removed the suggestion. | ||
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On December 09 2014 21:14 Holyflare wrote: There's quite a lot of europeans and a lot of americans went to bed so of course a case on mafia bunnies at usa bed time and europe waking up time wouldn't receive much counter pressure. I also still don't see how she shows suspicion of damdred at all? The post you quoted isn't her responding to Damdred? It doesn't show any suspicion of him at all it's a reply to him asking her to explain more reads iirc. Not saying she can't be mafia but she's voting a good target for good reasons and her posting isn't as horrible as you make it out to be for like 2 hours of gameplay. Actually, sorry about that last one. Apparently he was talking about 27ninjabunnies in that post. It's still a very non-committal suspicion on someone she already sheepvoted for earlier. It doesn't even feel like she has any confidence in 27ninjabunnies flipping Mafia. Granted, this point would be stronger if I made it closer to deadline. The Mafia team *could* just be in hiding for now. I still think it's more likely for town to gather a big wagon without any serious competition. | ||
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On December 09 2014 21:31 LoneMeow wrote: Funny, except I wouldn't be surprised if it actually happened, knowing Holyflare :D Does Holyflare have a history of bussing his teammates as Mafia? (perhaps like me ) | ||
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On December 09 2014 21:33 LoneMeow wrote: Xatalos, what do you think about the others on the wagon? Especially the ones I commented. I think sicklucker is highly likely town. It'd be very weird for scum to claim a role during early D1 without any kind of reason or strategy for doing so. Especially in the manner that he did (confused / almost accidental). Templar also claimed here: On December 09 2014 12:21 The_Templar wrote: And yet you missed every single post where I claimed joyful child... I think that's also more likely a towny claim than a fakeclaim. He did apparently breadcrumb it too, though I couldn't read everything in his posts because they were so long. Half the Sky's vote is definitely sketchy like I said. Fecalfeast's vote doesn't seem too good either. | ||
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On December 09 2014 12:02 Damdred wrote: SL did notice my role droppings in the thread, I applaud that. However I do not have a present to give, I think its random who gets them i'm just a named VT . However if i get a present i might pass it to someone or open it we will see. | ||
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On December 09 2014 21:52 Half the Sky wrote: Xatalos, first, as explained, that first post I made towards bunnies was 1) before I read the trouble she'd gotten herself into, which I already admitted and 2) being the only other female in a male-dominated field, regardless of whatever roles we were, I thought it was cool to find another girl here. If you want to discuss usefulness of posts, that's fine, but there are a few others in the thread with far more fluff to start the game, as you put it. Bunnies herself had more fluff at the very beginning of this thread (pages 16-17) and the whole Nicki Minaj thing on Ritoky followed by her vote on him is just...I mean if that's based on meta, I cannot tell that it is. I'm going to assume it's a joke vote, otherwise I cannot follow why she is voting him. Even worse, you look at her D1 list, she's voted Ritoky and she doesn't even scumlist him or change her vote before she leaves? The rest of the posts are answers to questions, mostly by Damdred. Since you don't know me, this is my second game ever, first normal on TLM (thus unprepared for how quickly the thread took off) and I even told Damdred I had to keep reading other's posts to answer his questions on my reads. Also where are you getting that I am suspecting Damdred? I even said later on he was reading town. The third post you cited (lot of reads for this early D1) was in reference to bunnies' list of D1 reads, which seemed like a lot to me given she was posting under pressure and it was so early in D1. My citing Kita was because calling him iffy for just saying hi seems like a stretch. Damdred asked me to discuss 27NB's list, so that's exactly what I did. I was asked for reads on Froggy and Vivax and I was doing reads on multiple others at the same time. LoneMeow: I did not skirt the issue. I broke up my response in two parts. First post was the reads on Froggy and Vivax. Second was a response regarding the 27NB's list of reads. Also, the game started at 11pm GMT, and it was 1:30am when I went to bed with work at 8am. If I could have stayed up until 3-4am GMT to keep sorting things out, I would have. I fell behind on the thread, which I've done some further catching up on just now. Indeed, HF already pointed out that you weren't talking about Damdred there. It was my bad since I just assumed you were talking about him when you started with "Damdred, about that listpost...". I was also confused by the fact that Damdred made a listpost somewhere around that time as well. I agree that 27ninjabunnies doesn't look good. She also does have more fluff than you. Fluff in itself isn't so bad though, in my opinion. What I was more concerned about is that your posts seem to maintain some appearance of relevance without really having much (if any), whereas 27ninjabunnies has more fluff that's clearly just useless. Generally I've noticed that Mafia tend to make posts more along the lines of your posting style. Well, since you're here, why not share your reads? What do you think of players other than 27ninjabunnies? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:01 Half the Sky wrote: I also asked KelsierSC first thing last night to explain his logic for asking Scrooge to claim, he then acknowledged that he made a mistake in asking to claim, now I see that Kushm4sta has claimed scrooge. Kush appears too experienced a player for this knowing the game mechanics (Marley, if he exists, goes through any protection) so assuming he's not Scrooge, why did he roleclaim? I'm not following. Probably a joke. I hope. | ||
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On December 09 2014 21:57 Oatsmaster wrote: I really dont know man Xata, her tone seems pretty happy and alright. Meh, not making a read now on her. Hey Holyflare, that is completely true on Vivax. However, bunnies didnt explain shit on her change which makes me think it is really bad. So too scum to be scum. Vivax's reasons for Bunnies scum are weak though, looks exactly like what he said bunnies was doing. Are you known as a tonereader by any chance? I saw one on Vendetta Strada and actually he was pretty accurate. Seriously though, I guess you could call her tone cheerful. That's not necessarily exclusive to town play though. I hope she'll continue posting for now. | ||
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Half the Sky: do you have other scumreads besides 27ninjabunnies? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:30 LightningStrike wrote: Well not much of my reads did change as I did read the thread from where we were last night compared to today and it been mostly the same stuff as why I given them their original reads Didn't you think anything of sicklucker's claim? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:39 LightningStrike wrote: I did but it doesn't make sense though the way he acting though and when I played with him he was Vanilla town in the games I played with him when he had these weird shenanigans but I not seeing this game. This doesn't seem be the sicklucker I know. So you're... not buying his claim because he's only been VT in your games with him? Or what? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:43 LightningStrike wrote: Strongest to Weakest in order HF Damdred OWS FF rsoultin Slam Templar Also I not buying sicklucker claim because he doesn't seem to be himself on making weird shenanigans early in the game which he does when he was Vanilla Town. There are two things wrong with that last paragraph. 1) He claimed named VT, not regular VT. So maybe you shouldn't compare to a VT game. 2) His filter kind of does consist of shenanigans. | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:42 Half the Sky wrote: Yes, I do. My town reads seem very straightforward from everyone I've evaluated last night: Holyflare, Rasputin (rsoultin), Damdred, kitaman27 (who seems to be picking apart things as he should), you also appear to be doing the same atm. Null - Froggy (one post discussing policy and that's it), Bats (retracted his previous argument as others had the same opinion), Vivax (talking about Froggy) Null leaning scum - OWS - don't understand his posts, the SL lynch posts I believe were because SL was posting one-liner fluff but after that it was all one word posts. Scum - 27NB and Kush for reasons I've explained. I have to look into GlowingBear and Templar and a few others more. LS was null prior to his latest post updated with reads. Hmm. How is Kush suddenly sure scum? Didn't you just mention that he was towny? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:13 Half the Sky wrote: I don't know that he's town, but I also don't know or think that scum would roleclaim this early on in the game. I would think it's too dangerous for them to do so. Additionally, the Kush I recall from last game makes these sporadic posts for whatever reason and he was town last time, so I am using meta here. Like... You just posted this. | ||
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Scumreads? Townreads? Anything? | ||
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[QUOTE]On December 09 2014 22:17 ritoky wrote: what about his ninja vote? what about his content thus far in the thread? i could give 2 craps about your meta case, no offense. [QUOTE] Nope, you're right. I did not catch that until now. I caught Kush roleclaiming and it was out of the blue, but looking at filter, now when you add it all up, yes, he's scumlike. Two posts from what I can tell, really doesn't do much for what I can tell, certainly not productive for town, and the vote for you, there's no explanation, sheeping at best. [/QUOTE] Oh never mind, I missed this post. But how did you arrive at this from how you meta'd him to be town just minutes earlier? | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:51 kushm4sta wrote: That all depends on if scrooge is mafia or not. I kinda read the OP but not close enough to understand wtf is going on. I'm red but I have no scum qt? I really hope you're trolling. Scrooge is a town power role. | ||
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On December 09 2014 22:56 Half the Sky wrote: I completely missed the ninja vote until Ritoky drew attention to it. Honestly I have no idea what to think of Kush right now. I don't remember ever seeing his play being this nonsensical. | ||
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On December 09 2014 23:01 kushm4sta wrote: k im back for a second. xatalos, you need to look at my behaviors in the context of me not giving a fuck. then they make more sense. If you're really the Scrooge then you've just potentially cost us the game. That's why I hope you're trolling. | ||
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On December 10 2014 02:45 Damdred wrote: Heres the group I would be happy lynching into today Froggy: One post said he was going to bed, the post had plenty of double speak in it and he hasn't returned and its been quite awhile (which isn't inherrintly scummy) Bats: Hes probably the least hesitant that I would be willing to lynch into. Besides a couple of posts he is completely forgettable, he misrepresented peoples posts and then was forced to play and lurked since then. FF: His posts seem to lack direction and its really difficult to even remember what all hes been doing in the thread without reading his filter. I'm not sure that I would lynch 27nb today, she has done some scummy things i'm just a bit hesitant and the follow up to her return will decide that. People i won't listen about: Damdred, SL, Templars, HF, Koshi, RS, Oats, probably LS, kush People who i love but am suspicious of Xatalos (its just so formulaic and looks so town, he once told me that hes probably mafia when he actually looks town) GB: Hasn't really read the thread yet has pretty unexplained reads tried to get people to view him as town becasue he had a present what? Unexplained scum read on templars I think even though hes claimed HTS pretty unremarkable play so far but i doubt i would lynch her, even though the posts are scattered does have a somewhat direction and train of thought. Tube: Need him to post more but he is seeming okish so far one of my top lynches is a policy lynch basically and i know that, which makes his post even more hilarious to me. I actually laughed out loud because this was such a funny suspicion :D Note that there's a post limit here so I need to reduce spam/fluff so that I won't hit the post limit long before deadline. Hint: it usually becomes clear if I'm scum or not around D2-D3. Not really worth using more posts on this topic now though. On December 10 2014 03:06 Damdred wrote: Seriously we should lynch GB who's whole d1 policy is to lynch lurkers not ignore them completely and fo after active people this is what he did in the one hour titanic mafia as scum Has he not played similarly as town? His first vote in the Guilty game was on a lurker. Granted, he then went after me and rayn. But I don't see how GB is top scum from that meta point. On another note, I don't think we should lynch LS today. Well, he already basically claimed to have a role. I guess 27ninjabunnies isn't a bad lynch at this rate. It's hard to find anything towny about her other than the easy wagon. Tubesock: could you explain further HTS leaning town / null? I got the impression from your post that HTS was looking bad (or null at best) and that 27ninjabunnies was just worse. | ||
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On December 10 2014 04:24 Damdred wrote: Well Xatalos you are just so overtly town I have to be suspicious of you right now its only the right answer. Besides that I figured that would be your response since we have post restrictions. You did ignore my next post where I said not to lynch you for today though. The meta on GB isn't that bad, ever since avocado mafia its something gb has followed strictly as town to the point of getting scum read for it in some situations and as mafia going against the lurker lynch to pursue higher profile people. It is not a guaranteed scum to be sure but I think its a good chance at this point. I saw that post too, I just didn't quote it. It basically had the same content anyway except saying that you'd delay that thought. Feel free to do so. As a sidenote, I kind of like your posts so far. The claim also helps. Unfortunately I don't think I can put you as sure town since I've never been that good at reading you. Hm. You might be more familiar with GB than me. I wouldn't really want to lynch him based on a meta read that isn't even from my own experience though. | ||
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On December 10 2014 05:15 Damdred wrote: No xata you have always been good at reading me you just never trust yourself and give into paranoia and scum pushing if you are town. And yea i'm not sure that we should lynch GB based entirely on this piece of meta as meta reads can be a bit misleading, however we can lynch GB for not really contributing to the game not reading the game, not making any type of real push besides on someone who has claimed a role etc On December 10 2014 05:18 Half the Sky wrote: Xatalos, I'm noticing a trend here, after looking at GB's filter, I'm seeing one post refuting you for what is a pretty minor point, but most of his posts are all over the place. Damdred is correct, not sure where he's trying to go. The problem is there's a few others falling into this category (Kush, Lian, FF, one could argue Oats too) as mentioned before with random posts. This may or may not be typical for D1, with meta being used to argue for or against some of these individuals (Kush for one, Oats was also like this last game, though I cannot comment on Ritoky, I didn't see a problem with him). It is making some of these people though very difficult to read, and for a town agenda, that has been pretty frustrating. Disregard meta for all of them, and they all look pretty bad. Froggy, just read your post, I don't think #1 is entirely accurate, I got the impression people kept policy votes in the back of their mind whilst still scumhunting. Town should always be scumhunting. I think that's why Damdred called you on it. I'd say he's someone to keep eyes on, yeah. Today's lynch? Probably not the worst idea, even if the case on him isn't all that solid. He has the opportunity to participate in the remaining day after all. If he doesn't seem better by then, it's definitely an option. Maybe I was wrong about HTS. She seems to be actively doing stuff for now so it could be too hasty to lynch her. 27ninjabunnies on the other hand, doesn't look any better than earlier. Mainly for the fact that she defended froggy and then put him on her scumlist anyway when pressured. And townread the people who had stances against her own. Basically just meaningless listing contradicting her other posts. It could be that the scumteam merely doesn't have that much thread presence or is bussing her. ##Unvote ##Vote 27ninjabunnies | ||
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On December 10 2014 12:36 Vivax wrote: Yea gimme a read on Xata. He did pull it out of his ass cause it wasn't a reaction test. A reaction test is something you purposefully do to fish a reaction. What Kelsier did was an attempt at taking advantage of the setup, then he realized it failed, then he looked at FF and called him scum for not looking more thoroughly at what he did there, meta-based. Could you clarify why you thought KSC's plan was an afterthought? I got the opposite feeling. Mainly for these reasons: 1) No scum in their right mind would blatantly bluefish for "setup reasons", then retract the idea a few minutes later... that's very risky play for Mafia and they would almost certainly double-check before proposing a plan like this, especially if he noticed that it was faulty in just a couple of minutes afterwards 2) I think his chain of posts were stupid / risky, but I can more easily believe it coming from over-eager town rather than suicidal scum 3) KSC did actually go after FF after that which leaves me to again think that it probably wasn't simply an afterthought So yeah, I don't really see your point here. Please enlighten me on why you think differently of KSC's play there. On December 10 2014 13:02 Vivax wrote: Then, what gave me more confidence is the matter of his read evolution on 27nb: December 09 2014 12:42.: December 09 2014 14:02: December 09 2014 19:54. December 09 2014 22:02: Like, this doesn't make ANY sense. The reasons for her being scum were there from the start, yet all dismissed just cause so many people found them good and cause of the associative thingy. And when 27nb comes back at December 09 2014 18:07, to explain that iffy for her means null, Xata skips over it in his next posts to progressively get closer to lynching her as his traction on HTS loses strength. It is a BIG deal whether iffy means scummy or means null in someone's opinion. Obviously you can't verify it for sure if it's just an excuse or the truth, but at least it takes some wind out of the former arguments. And at the time when the arguments against bunnies were the strongest, Xata found some very questionable reasons for townreading her. When the time comes where the arguments against bunnies should be put into question given her explanation, he ignores the new information and joins the wagon based on the old information, using it as the main argument. Also notice the use of the word "fluff". "Fluff" in this game has been literally dropping down from the sky from a multitude of players, and I don't see how Xata applies it so selectively to only these two players. I don't want to count the amount of the word "fluff", between being used as bulk of his case against HTS, to being differentiated into useless fluff and fluff with usefuleness (or something like that), to be called "not so bad in itself". The use of the word fluff in here is mostly just an excuse to scumread people or not on a whim and completely arbitrary. You can't measure the amount of fluff, and it has to be seen in context. When HTS posted fluff in her first post, it was scummy. Ninjabunnies had more fluff initially, but it wasn't so bad in itself.Why? Cause more people voted her! Clearly Xata has a blatant double standard here, and the read on NB should progress in the opposite way, if he had rolled town. I was very tired last night and I don't think I saw a post from 27ninjabunnies that would make me think differently of her before leaving. HTS was posting better in the recent pages so I thought that it might be too hasty to just lynch her. Unfortunately I was too tired to start reading through filters again so I just left my vote on 27ninjabunnies. She seemed like a better lynch than HTS at the time despite her being the only real wagon. By the way, I find your point about "iffy" and "null" meaning the same thing to be very weird. Just a bit earlier you were advocating that KSC's earlier play was all an afterthought, but here you don't even seem to consider the possibility. What gives? If anything, 27ninjabunnies' claim looks a lot more like an afterthought. If "iffy" and "null" both meant "null", why separate the categories? Doesn't "iffy" sound somewhat suspicious anyway instead of just null? Then again, 27ninjabunnies did softclaim Mason (?) after I left. If she really does claim Mason later on, I don't see a reason to lynch her unless the other Masons counter-claim. Though it could easily be a scum strategy too (baiting counter-claims before dying). You should just check my earlier games to see that I often separate fluff into different categories. Pure fluff = fluff that has absolutely no relevance to the game, usually not really alignment indicative. Semi-useful fluff = fluff that's slightly relevant to the game such as setup/role talk or policy talk. That's the easiest thing to talk about for Mafia while maintaining a semi-useful appearance and that's why I often look at such posters first on D1. | ||
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Apparently all the votes on me were on false premises (Vivax) or pure sheepvotes (rsoultin/Obi/Tubesock/Fecalfeast). Honestly speaking the wagon looks just totally atrocious. Just look at these votes: On December 10 2014 13:49 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Vivax is town. Xatalos is scum. Let's go. ##vote xatalos On December 10 2014 14:49 rsoultin wrote: Heh, I don't have to agree with anyone to prove I'm town, and you in particular do not intimidate me, Vivax. I think you made a good catch here. If I didn't I wouldn't have taken the time to try to verify it, even if I did make a mistake in doing so. I think this is a better case than OWS. I still want to hear what people think of Glowingbear. Especially those who have played with him before. Is he always this...absent when he plays? ##unvote ##vote Xatalos On December 10 2014 14:52 Fecalfeast wrote: sheepalfeast rasputin you didnt use the voting thread On December 10 2014 19:31 Tubesock wrote: I was pissed. I'm still mad. Once Koshi responded that my post was completely worthless due to the claim which I missed. I reverted to my previous read of Viv and sheeped him. I calmed down a bit and thought about my scum read on Obi, my uncertainty about Rasputin, and realized that all through their talk about Xatas they never cited NB as a claimed role. So, I ninja'd back my vote to 27NB. | ||
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On December 10 2014 14:50 ObiWanShinobi wrote: This is a much better response. @FF: Xatalos made up reasons to hop on the NB wagon. So rsoultin removing his vote from Obi and sheepvoting me instead is a "much better response"? That makes no sense unless Obi means that it's best when people sheepvote on someone that's not him. I don't even. Also the last part "Xatalos made up reasons to hop on the wagon" is a gross misrepresentation of both my play and even Vivax's case. What Vivax said was that I didn't vote for 27ninjabunnies when the arguments were strongest and voted when they were less strong. I don't really agree with that argument (since the only possible argument for 27ninjabunnies being town by then was a sketchy explanation to her listpost, and HTS had posted better which made 27bunnies relatively more scummy than before), but even if that argument was true, ObiWanShinobi's summary of the case is an exaggeration. Not only does he sheep but he also spreads misinformation. Also, looking at Obi's filter, it's really atrocious overall. OMGUS: On December 09 2014 23:40 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Holyflare might be mafia for thinking I'm mafia. Baseless town passes: On December 10 2014 11:42 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Working on them now. Tempted to call you town for holding me accountable for posting them. Give it some time because I'm going to post on a bunch of people I find important/interesting. On December 10 2014 11:52 ObiWanShinobi wrote: lol Also inclined to townread this stud because he made me giggle. Pure sheeping: On December 10 2014 13:49 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Vivax is town. Xatalos is scum. Let's go. ##vote xatalos Yeah. He could definitely be scum. FF's vote is bad. So is the vote from rsoultin. Tubesocks' vote is probably the most ridiculous. At least he removed it soon enough. | ||
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"Tubesock: could you explain further HTS leaning town / null? I got the impression from your post that HTS was looking bad (or null at best) and that 27ninjabunnies was just worse." | ||
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On December 10 2014 22:55 rsoultin wrote: @Xata Dude, give me something non-reactionary. Why, of all the people here, were your only scum reads HTS and 27nb? If they were your strongest scum reads, why? OWS is obviously scummy, of course, no matter how many times he's townread me, but your play only makes sense if you have no one else you think could be scum. I find that hard to believe. The 27nb push is weak. Back up your push, prove to me it's strong with or without her list clarification (where you are claiming that she had a section specifically labeled "null" when she didn't), and I will change my vote on you. Or at least show why you think she's a better lynch than players like OWS and FF, liancourt, or me even. xP That's my issue with you. All the other stuff Vivax said wasn't strong by itself, as I've already mentioned. I've already explained my reasons for suspecting HTS (and 27ninjabunnies as well, though I didn't want to focus on repeating what others had already said too much). I also explained that I was tired last night and that affected my ability to find scum. 27ninjabunnies hasn't really done anything to make me *not* want to lynch her. Then there's her arbitrary list posting, weird defense for something that shouldn't deserve defending (froggy), easy town passes for several people as well as scum/null reading froggy just after defending him. Overall nothing towny and several suspicious points. After OWS's sheep vote and looking at him closer, however, I'm heavily considering that he could be the better lynch. FF doesn't look good either I agree. What was the case on liancourt again? On phone atm | ||
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HTS: KSC was part of the case. More precisely his early Scrooge thing and my reaction to it. I think Vivax is misguided or misrepresenting stuff related to this issue. I don't get how he comes to the conclusion that KSC is lying about his early plays. I don't think he even called KSC scum? And how come the stuff on my voting is credible either? I don't see it. | ||
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1) KSC's Scrooge posts: Occam's razor. Is it more likely that A) town creates a plan to lure scum or B) scum creates a fake plan to jeopardize his own safety for no real reason or C) scum starts blatantly bluefishing and then claims it was to get reactions, jeopardizing his own safety for a very small chance of having a blue claim? I think A is easily most likely. Complicated plays usually come from town in my experience while scum are more "clean". Even if we assume for a moment that KSC is scum and lying about his actions, you should be trying to lynch him first and foremost. So why are you trying to lynch me instead when your argument assumes that KSC is scum? 2) The other thing where I apparently go from town nb to scum nb (lol): Did I ever say anything in nb's defense as a player? The only thing I said might make her town is that her wagon gained steam very easily and that HTS sheeped on her so easily. They weren't strong reasons, but something to keep in mind for me. Then the second reason started to fade away and the first reason didn't seem all that relevant anymore either (at that point the scumteam would probably be bussing her anyway, especially if their presence was weak). What was left was just her (scummy) filter. 27nb certainly seems like a decent lynch now. The same goes for OWS. LoneMeow and KSC also have good points on FF. I'm not so sure about Kush and ritoky. They're certainly not very helpful / memorable, but they seem more like Cop/Vig targets than people having a high chance to flip scum. Basically somewhere around coinflip status. Koshi: why not OWS today? rsoultin: OWS feels like a good lynch but I don't think the difference is significant compared to 27nb. If you think OWS is scum, it's a bit weird that you're following his lead without even bringing anything original to the table. HF: I'm not sure I get your point on Oats. Why is that TMI? I think "bandwagoning" can refer to both wagons on town or scum. I'll be looking through 27nb/OWS/FF again after I'll be back soon. I think one of them should most likely be today's lynch. | ||
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On December 11 2014 04:00 Koshi wrote: Xatalos. Read my posts. I gave you 3 names I wanted to lynch. If you can proof to me that OWS has a meta in which he is never less useful as town D1 I will revisit him for today. But you cant'. So stop being dumb. Thx. I'm not really familiar with his meta. I've just looked at his play in this game. If you know him better, you think his D1 play is like this in general? What separates his town and scum play in your opinion? Kush is detrimental and not the worst lynch. I'll have to look at ritoky again. What made you think nb might be town in your more recent post? | ||
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On December 11 2014 05:29 Vivax wrote: I'm actually content to lynch bunnies since she has not been doing much all this time. I was quite willing to listen since the post where she said that her iffy reads are her null reads but I didn't see her stepping it up so far, and she's quite capable of scumhunting when she's town. Overall I'm willing to see where Xata and the other guys I've been calling out will be headed in the next days. Plus this game is just tiring on D1. There's no way anyone who isn't spending all his time on this game can have a good overview of everything going on, I just want this mountain of information to shrink atm, people shitposting didn't help the game. And I don't think that this looks necessarily like a town lynch cause mafia players can simply be passive about it...Or tried to get another lynch but went down in the noise and have been forgotten about. Yeah I had that thought (too little resistance) earlier but the scumteam would be insane to do anything peculiar at this point if she's scum. I'd sure bus her now if we were on the team. I looked at Fecalfeast's filter and I really dislike his lack of interest in finding scum. His votes have been all over the place without any real reason (besides OMGUS/sheeping). He made a case (?) on Templar, yet never voted him. He's a potential scum for sure. By the way FF, you just said you could sheep on 27ninjabunnies but I can't see your stance otherwise in your filter. Do you even scumread her? | ||
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AtE (appeal to emotion) isn't going to work here nb. | ||
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On December 11 2014 06:51 kitaman27 wrote: I'm tempted to move over to Fecal for the sake of wagon of justice. It wouldn't be a bad choice. I think nb is just as likely though if not more. Well, FF does really look bad though. | ||
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On December 11 2014 07:13 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Much brainstorm with Xat. Maybe my vote is bad. Couldn't resist. | ||
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Kush could use a Vig shot. | ||
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On December 11 2014 08:15 sicklucker wrote: Shoot ff for suggesting it. Koshi and me suggested it. | ||
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On December 11 2014 08:16 batsnacks wrote: Shoot kush. The reward (2 dead scum) by far outweighs the risk. ? | ||
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On December 11 2014 08:21 batsnacks wrote: He buses his team d1 as mafia in every game I can remember. If kush is mafia I would bet the game that ritoky is too. Hm. Well, that's not impossible I guess. | ||
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I looked at KSC's deadline posts and I don't really see his waffling on 27ninjabunnies as scum motivated. What's the point? It's not like he would gain credibility by doing that, more like risking his life for no reason. He was a candidate for lynch himself (since quite a few people suspected him) and if we assume KSC scum and 27nb town, why in the world would he suggest switching off of 27nb (and quite possibly onto himself instead)? I think ritoky possibly makes a better point about KSC here: On December 11 2014 11:12 ritoky wrote: work op, wait what..... what happened to that read? you posted my name a total 0 times in your entire filter between when you made a read of me as town for making a good read on LS and trapping ff, WHO YOU THOUGHT WAS SCUM FOR MY REASONS; and then all of the sudden i am scum. because apparently i haven't done anything all game...yet in your filter you like what i did? you don't even mention me in the little blurb, i am just paired with OWS and you talk about OWS. like why am i even in this read? especially when it is contrary to what you previously said. kels just seems like he changed his read because of thread sentiment, not because he actually believes it; hell he doesn't even try to justify the terrible read because he knows it is so terrible. this is not a read town makes at all, he is probably mafia. What's with your sudden change of read KSC? How can ritoky go from town circle to scum without any real reason given? | ||
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How has your list changed now? | ||
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On December 10 2014 09:04 GlowingBear wrote: I'm also trying to understand why people are scumreading NB. I have no idea. Actually I had somewhat forgotten about GlowingBear. It's extremely disturbing that apparently he thinks NB is town (?) or at least not scum, but he doesn't seem to care that he's getting lynched. Meanwhile his vote is randomly wasted and without any kind of push behind it. He could be scum. | ||
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How do you come to the conclusion that his play isn't scum-motivated? I'm a bit curious. He seems detached from the thread and not really too interested in what's happening. I usually associate that with scum. | ||
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Who were your better lynches? I guess you said that you wouldn't want to decide too much before the actions. I agree to some extent. I think something like 5-7 people might die? If people open presents, scum hit Scrooge etc. | ||
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On December 11 2014 23:33 GlowingBear wrote: I don't have a meta. If you believe I have a town meta, you'll lynch me this game because I'm completely self aware that I'm playing completely different from my previous town games. And guess what: I'm town. It's very unfair to say that I've only brought things about Templar. I also had some town reads throghout my filter, like rsoultin and SL. I will not post reads until half of day one probably. It's because I don't have time to read the entire thread properly. I think they were just casual remarks though, not actual reads. | ||
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On December 11 2014 23:41 Half the Sky wrote: Vivax, since you're bringing up the idea of the "main wagon" what are your thoughts on Koshi's pushing 27NB the way he did? He's attacking a lot of the fluff (namely the manner of NB's rebuttal) though I do see he spent 3-4 posts on the same issue. Kelsier being her only read is a valid point, but it feels like overkill. Is this normal for him? I have never played with him. Are you suggesting that Koshi would be scum for pursuing a scum read? That makes no sense. | ||
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Out of the current wagons, I think the KSC wagon is the worst. He's made several plays that are unlikely to come from scum (baiting reactions by making himself look bad, suggesting delaying the 27nb lynch when he's next in line himself, etc.) and his posts during N1 seemed fine. The wagon on him also looks all but inspiring (all the voters are sketchy or at best somewhat nullish players). ritoky didn't look that good during D1 so I can understand the wagon a bit better. I don't really get how the claim is Mafia motivated though. Let's look at the different scenarios: 1) If he's scum, what does he gain by claiming like that? I'd never even consider doing such a claim as scum (no matter if the claim is real or fake) and it'd have to be a pretty bad scumteam to coach him into doing that. At best he might create some chaos in the thread (not that bad of a scum motivation, but not great either) or perhaps prevent himself being checked/Vigi'd at night (since there's a good chance he might just die from the present). The gains aren't non-existent, but we also have to consider the costs. If the claim is real, he might well die for no gain at all. If the claim is fake, he's basically dead to a counter-claim (remember that he didn't know about the fate of Damdred's present when he claimed and there would still be two (or at least one) more presents floating around now). He also invites heavy scrutiny from every player in the game when instead he could just lay low or try to improve his own credibility. I think the costs far outweigh the gains. 2) If he's town, there are two plausible scenarios. Either he's A) fakeclaiming having opened the present and actually planning to pass it on while eating a KP/RB or B) actually opened the present and still wanting to eat a KP/RB. Option A seems to make much more sense as town, but naturally he wouldn't want to admit that now if possible. Option B is a bit stupid, since he could get all the benefits of option B without actually wasting the present with option A, but I don't think it's all that implausible either. As a solo town player he wouldn't have the scumteam coaching him and his judgment may have been faulty. That at least seems more likely than him doing this play as scum with a whole team coaching him..... So I agree that ritoky doesn't look great as a player, but there are several players who seem more likely scum and I fail to see how this claim is scum-motivated when no sane scumteam would go through with it (and it's decently plausible that he would do it as town, and if it's a fakeclaim, it would even be a pretty decent play... though it might more likely be a real claim since he's been so insistent about it... regardless it's more plausible to do a dumb play as town than scum). ritoky, do you at least agree that even if you insist on option B being the case here, option A would have been a lot better for town? Tubesock hasn't exactly looked good at any point and he's looked even worse today. I looked at his D1 play and there are several slightly concerning points such as playing the noob card, having a somewhat weird focus on roles (too interested?) and lastly sheepvoting for me even when he disregarded the case against me. It was certainly the most ridiculous vote on me and looking back on it, it might just be scum (instead of too scummy to be scum). What's more worrying, though, is the shift in his posting style. At first he was relatively calm and blended in, but after the massacre of night kills he suddenly got more bold and altered his posting style drastically. Inconsistencies in posting style (especially significant changes such as large changes in activity or tone) are usually associated with scum since they're fabricating everything to begin with and it's more natural to change your playstyle when it's just a fake to be changed (as town you're naturally posting what comes to your mind usually). It doesn't end there, though. He also slips that there would be exactly 5 scum in the game here: It does seem like a reasonable amount of scum, but how in the world could he just casually mention that exact amount as town? It looks far too much like a casual slip rather than a deliberate troll or something like that, considering that it's a quick reply to another post. This is the best case of TMI (too much information) I've seen all game and perhaps even in my game history. In addition he complains about town's play during D1 (which more often comes from scum), although this is more of a minor point. I think Tubesock is by far the best out of these 3 candidates for lynch, so I'll put my vote tentatively on him and look again through FF/GB/OWS and probably others to see if there's a higher reason for lynching one of them instead of Tubestock. In the meanwhile I'd like everyone online to comment on my arguments in this post. ##Vote Tubesock | ||
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Contributes nothing to the discussion, in fact degrades it by hitting at the credibility of others without any reason. On December 11 2014 13:34 Fecalfeast wrote: Finished Counting For Today ritoky (1): 27ninjabunnies, kushm4sta, Fecalfeast 27ninjabunnies (11): batsnacks, The_Templar, Fecalfeast, Holyflare, batsnacks, Half the Sky, sicklucker, kitaman27, liancourt, Vivax, Koshi, Alakaslam, Xatalos, Tubesock, Tubesock, Trfel, Fecalfeast Half the Sky (0): batsnacks, Xatalos, Koshi The_Templar (2): GlowingBear, froggynoddy sicklucker (0): rsoultin, ObiWanShinobi ObiWanShinobi (0): rsoultin Vivax (1): Oatsmaster LightningStrike (0): ritoky, Alakaslam sicklucker (0): LightningStrike liancourt (0): LightningStrike GlowingBear (1): Damdred Fecalfeast (3): ritoky, LoneMeow, KelsierSC KelsierSC (3): The_Templar, 27ninjabunnies, LightningStrike, Alakaslam Xatalos (3): ObiWanShinobi, Vivax, Fecalfeast, rsoultin, Tubesock froggynoddy (1): Half the Sky Not Voting (0): 27ninjabunnies was lynched! If you look at the final count I was on 27nb Claiming credit for nothing (ninjavoting 27nb at the last moments). And so on. Mostly sheeping and making useless comments all around. | ||
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On December 13 2014 03:25 GlowingBear wrote: You guys are out of your minds. I had to come quickly to my work so I couldn't bring the points on holyflare. By the way, mass claiming IS okay now, as a lot of vts died. It will narrow our lynches A LOT I know the balance team hates mass claims so I'd wager a bet that this setup is rigged not to favor them overall. For example, there's that Branch Manager role to kill VT's and killing Cop/Doc would naturally be nice for scum. Well, there *is* the point that Scrooge died so early. It might now be just barely worth it. I can't imagine it being an overall optimal strategy though. Not sold on the HF push either. If HF is still alive at LYLO, it should probably be considered. Overall GB's D2 doesn't seem productive for town, but at least he's doing stuff, so maybe he shouldn't be a lynch option today. | ||
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On December 13 2014 04:11 Vivax wrote: Not really sold on the ritoky wagon from what I've read of him lately. Most arguments are based purely on his gift claiming and scumreading somebody off that is insanity, if you want to convince me you will need more than that. His defense appeared townie to me and so did his push on his scumread. Another townie bit I noticed about someone else was Obi saying "I don't have the grasp of what's going on in this game and that bothers me" which is something a townie will be subject to, not a scum. Don't see much reason for a scum to post such a thing. Just a thought that came to my mind and I'd like to share. Having narrowed down the list of the NKs suspects eliminating ritoky, I'd focus more on Fecalfeast and the fact that I don't see him being pushed a lot, overall he doesn't have anything memorable to begin with and that usually alarms me. Playing doto atm will analyse him thoroughly afterwards. I actually agree 100% with this post. Vivax is almost certainly town. | ||
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On December 13 2014 04:35 sicklucker wrote: Its interesting to note that if mafia has no rb they have all the incentive in the world to push ritoky hes already got alot of votes Yeah and even if they have a RB'er they would most likely prefer not using it on ritoky. Who do you mean specifically though? I think HF is town and LS is probably too (his claim shenanigans seemed pretty genuine). HTS and rsoultin could be candidates, I guess. | ||
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On December 13 2014 04:44 Half the Sky wrote: Xatalos, I looked over your explanation: I'm thinking the mechanics through with the present, do you really think a scumteam would believe what he had or would they just try and continue to rolehunt? Also I'm just trying to understand why any town would claim any present period (and especially what Ritoky has claimed) when scum have the advantage in KP (across all nights, not just the one night the present is used) and I would imagine the proportion of blue roles to VTs/named VTs is still small. Absolutely I agree Tube is scum and he needs to go at this point, but I think a few of us were worried about that extra KP. I just want to make sure I'm understanding this correctly. I'm not sure what you mean in the first paragraph? The most sensible explanation (out of all the possible explanations) for ritoky's claim is that he's fakeclaiming it as town to eat a kill/RB. The second most sensible explanation seems to be that he actually opened it and revealed it as town (same approach as the first explanation but with the drawback of wasting the present so it's pretty stupid). I think the least likely explanation is that he's scum and the scumteam somehow thought this was a great plan.... *facepalm* | ||
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On December 13 2014 04:58 Half the Sky wrote: Alright, I see what you are saying now. First paragraph, I mainly was trying to think of him doing this from both sides (town and scum) and how the other side would react. But you are right, scum have a lot less to gain and a lot more to lose. It is possible he could have made an honest mistake with claiming too. Since Tubesock is the most likely scum given the slip, I'll go ahead and change my vote. I've had FF scumlisted for awhile given the inconsistencies, not answering the questions (as I cited before) and continued apathy, but Tube is definitely the better lynch at this point. He still hasn't explained that post. I think the claim was definitely a mistake UNLESS he's fakeclaiming to have opened it as town, but it's more likely that he'd make a big blunder as town than as scum (with several other players discussing strategy with him). | ||
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On December 13 2014 05:01 Vivax wrote: One interesting bit I find in retrospect is this one. He wanted to talk about the 27nb stuff apparently and when catching up with his comment he seems to rehearse what HF said but without taking any opinion on it. 27nb also doesn't appear in his further reasoning. As shown here: This reply, in context, is meant to imitate what GB wrote, not really sure if trolling. I'll assume he isn't for now. I really hate posts like these cause they are so ambiguous. It's the sort of stuff people can use to say "but look I have made reads", or if you question their validity they can say "nah man I was just joking as a reply" as they see fit in a specific moment. Needs clearing up from FF. ______________________ Another matter is how he starts the game going after Alakaslam in a dramatic sumo-suit fashion. Again ambiguous so hard to tell if he's joking or serious, assuming serious again, then this later post of his doesn't make much sense: So he's telling us he can't read Slam but still tries to at the start of the game. Obviously a futile effort. I have the same opinion about reading Slam and my solution to it is to ignore his posts until it really becomes a pressing matter to decide on him. Yet he tries it at the start of the game but sees 27nb as a secondary issue he barely comments on. As of now I'd lynch this guy for making so little sense and talking about stuff that should be irrelevant to him (Alakaslam), and when he pretends it's relevant (comment on 27nb without ever further elaborating something on her) it really isn't. Overall his play is a pain to read and I have a hard time imagining him as town. Yeah. Perhaps the most scummy single post from him, I think, was where he claimed credit for his 27nb vote even though it was just a late sheep/ninjavote. | ||
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On December 13 2014 05:04 sicklucker wrote: The only scenario is if they thought ritoky was going to get lynched and want to use his present to kill a town. He was far from a for sure thing but he claimed too early like I would expect mafia to wait till their about to get voted out to claim present. Also who would have gave him a present anyway. Did gb claim to? I find it odd no third player claimed to have a present to give its so townie to say this only me and gb did. That means to me its probably in mafia hands so claiming he has it makes some sense. Expect another present claim when were about to lynch a mafia because I think they have one in there possession. regardless if its ritokys or not. Yeah he claimed to give the present to ritoky. It's possible that the remaining present is in scum hands. That'd reduce the risk of counter-claim a bit, but still only to 50/50 since they couldn't know that the other present was on its way to Damdred to disappear from the game. So it's still 50/50 chance of probably getting insta-lynched for... what exactly? He could just have opened it in secret and then used it as scum. | ||
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On December 13 2014 05:14 sicklucker wrote: Na I dont think mafia would have killed dandred last night so I think they know its gone. It looks like were lucky mafia has the seer present and not the kp. Can you imagine if mafia has 4kp tonight? I think it'd be gone regardless of how Damdred died since it was sent to him when he died? But that only happened after ritoky claimed to open it so he couldn't have known that it might be relatively safe to do so if the scumteam had the remaining present. | ||
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On December 13 2014 05:21 Half the Sky wrote: I don't know if we have a vigilante (I can't tell if Kush was killed by vig or Marley??), but if we're sure FF is scum, and we have the extra kp, we should probably use it on FF. Not a bad idea. | ||
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On December 13 2014 05:20 sicklucker wrote: Na like im pretty sure ritokys town. And theres zero reason to ever kill him unless his kp can potentially end the game for mafia. I kinda wanna look at hf. Hm. I think he's looked decent enough. Vivax and you seem more likely town though, and maybe LS. Definitely if he's alive in 1-2 days it might be time to worry. | ||
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On December 13 2014 03:08 batsnacks wrote: I hate you all ##vote: Half the Sky What are you doing batsnacks? | ||
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Tubesock's contributions have gotten gradually worse and they were never good to begin with. Then there's the (likely) slip and he hasn't really done anything lately. I think he's the lynch with the best chances of hitting scum right now. Not that sold on Trfel being Mafia, really. He's been inactive, yes, but so have many others. His posts also seem to show that he's thinking something although I'd like to see his focus shift to scumhunting (even if the reads might not be perfect, the point is to discuss reads and develop them, not just to announce the final scumteam at some point). Verdict: wait and see. Vivax, I somewhat agree with Oats' post. It's not really good to focus too much on the NK analysis since we don't know what killed who and besides, kita only made his readpost right at the deadline when the NK's were definitely already decided. More likely he was killed for being a veteran player. Well, I agree that Oats is being really lazy (judging FF by his post count LOL) so there might be a point in the fact that he's putting in little effort like FF. So I don't see a reason to cry over him being lynched/shot so far. | ||
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On December 13 2014 21:00 Tubesock wrote: GlowingBear. You had a nice post there, but then what happened man?? I'm holding my breath for your 2nd installment. Oh, sorry, too drunk to do it. FecalFeast's lynch doesn't fit in my current worldview. Yeah, he's done a lot of scum things but him flipping mafia while great doesn't help me find his mates. Well, to be honest I haven't gone in with the zealousness I did with my 4 disclosed (In case Sicklucker forgot they are: The_Templar, KelsierSC, Sicklucker, GlowingBear). I have a 5th but I need the right person to flip and sadly that isn't Fecal. To me HolyFire's really only drove the NinjaBunny wagon which we all were on and his investigating Ritoky pretty hard. He's hunting at least. Ritoky to me is very town. I read him today a bit and really the only thing I didn't really like is he likes good jokes when talking in the beginning. Yeah, so I have basically nothing on him. You also post quickly you think it's an irreparable post. Which to me made me think of the Key & Peele Text Confusion skit specifically. I find it hilarious and very applicable to the game of Mafia. I haven't figured out how to embed it so you'll have to google, but it will be the first return. Is he thinking he DID make an unexplainable error or is he testing and reading me? Haha, it's funny because it's both. You asked me to not remind you about flying so I'm going to spoiler the rest. + Show Spoiler + Cessna makes Citations, there are Jetstream aircraft (Jetstream 31), jet streams are often talked about on the weather channel, and a Learjet is a jet like a Cessna Citation but if you're talking small airplanes to the general public they refer to them as Cessna's. They mean the C172, or C206 Stationair, they don't know they also include the $25 million Citation X a sexy sexy and I think still the FASTEST business jet in production. Although the new Gulfstream 650 and 850 are in contention. I've been a member of AOPA since 1993. I don't read their magazine very often generally just the turbine pilot section or an article on an old antique bird. I gifted my free subscription of Flight Training Magazine to a couple students for a bit. I only really read Aviation Week & Space anymore. Flying, Sport Pilot, Airline, and many of those other magazines tend to repeat themselves so I only skim them at best and haven't opened one in over a decade. Nice that you decided to actually post now. Could you try to convince us of your reads? I don't really agree with any of them except *maybe* Templar/GB but I don't see why they'd be priority targets now. | ||
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On December 13 2014 16:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Do I care? no. Trefel or Froggy is it today. Actually do I prefer trefel? Yes yes i do. ##unvote ##vote Trefel Could you explain why you want to lynch him? | ||
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On December 13 2014 21:35 Oatsmaster wrote: changed my mind. But then he stopped. Why do people do this man. What does this mean? | ||
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On December 13 2014 21:46 Tubesock wrote: Oats is making fun of me for my batshit crazy posts. His post is Foggy. Foggy? Also I'd like to see understandable explanations for your reads. | ||
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So why is your vote still on him and what specifically makes you think Froggy is scum? | ||
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Haven't yet come to a conclusion about you. You'd be around in the same category as Slam or Trfel in likelihood of a being scum (close to null). Do you seriously think I wouldn't be glad to lynch someone like you/Slam/Trfel as scum? I'm just saying things as they are. | ||
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On December 13 2014 23:40 rsoultin wrote: So everyone is seriously on Tube because they think him mentioning 5 mafia was a scumslip? Is that what y'all are really saying? Or because he was talking weird? The seeming personality change from Day 1 to Day 2 I can kind of see but...what is the case on this guy? This smacks of picking random arbitrary reasons to lynch people again, and if we keep doing that, we might as well just be throwing darts at a dartboard. Or just give up now lol and cede the game. Someone voting on Tube, help me out...what am I missing? Also, if we're talking about scumslipping for him, why aren't we talking about it for me? I pointed out to SL how he broadcasted that he was turning his present over to Damdred...which would make him a good target for a KS beyond being a claimed named VT. I must be missing something because this wagon isn't really making sense to me. @Tube Dude, when people ask you for scumreads they generally want you to explain why, and making pre-flipped associations (associations that so and so is scum because someone over there is also scum, when neither have been revealed as scum yet) doesn't tend to hold a lot of weight. If you can explain yourself, that would be great. Sidenote: I think (correct me if I'm wrong here) Oats' point is lynching FF as a plynch doesn't make sense with his filter length. Lynching him for a case involving scumtells, and we have a good deal of material to work with, would be a good thing. I'm still reading him as null, perhaps null-leaning scum for not contributing a whole lot to the convos, but not like OMG you're SCUMMY. Can anyone make a case against him who thinks he's a good lynch? I don't really see anyone as "100% scum" right now. We'll just have to go with the best options and hopefully gain more information from the wagons and flips (especially after we get our first scum flip). There should be quite a few Mafia with this many players so it's actually a bit peculiar that so many people feel relatively townish/null, but I feel like we're pretty much guaranteed to hit scum within Tube/FF and we can go from there. It's not just the scumslip with Tube. He's significantly altered his playstyle twice now - once after the first NK's and again now that there's a wagon on him. It doesn't seem like something natural for a townie to do. His reads are also pretty much senseless and apparently pulled out of thin air. He still hasn't clarified his reads... Is he hunting for scum? No, he's just listing scumreads without any logic that gan be grasped (by me at least). What's your own "slip"? I don't completely follow. I don't think you have to always mention the possibility of someone being scum if he seems townish enough and has claimed on top of it. FF is partly a policy lynch, I guess. He's clearly making no effort to be actually helpful and he'll never be a townread, so he'd be a massive danger at LYLO even as town. Besides, he's done several things that are scum-motivated (like claiming credit for being on the 27nb wagon despite just ninja/sheepvoting it close to deadline, voting for 27nb and then weirdly ignoring her after the claim/unclaim stuff, overall not showing any interest in scumhunting unless pressured). | ||
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On December 14 2014 00:20 rsoultin wrote: No, I can't say that I feel 100% about anyone either, but some seem pretty scummy vice just sorta scummy, so either I'm the only one seeing/feeling that (which either means I'm wrong and seeing things where they aren't (possible)/not explaining myself well (also possible) or ppl are getting lost in the thread and going with comfortable/are scum themselves). GB, for instance. I won't say I'm 100% on him, but I did have an itching suspicion he might be a role (not because he half-claimed it, but because he kept delaying his reads like something else might inform it) but calling for a mass role reveal multiple times...yuck. No power role would want that. No plugged-in townie would think that was a good idea. Tube...yeah he's weird. Granted. And the personality changes. I'd only half-noticed the second one, but figured that was just cause people beat him up for the Slam talk weirdness and he actually personally insulted Slam in there. But it's his first game, so him not knowing how to give reads is possible. I get the feeling that as long as he's trying he's probably not our best lynch, at least for today. SL accused me of "slipping" because I could trace his convo and see where he hinted strongly that Damdred would be the one receiving his present. Also mentioning that mafia could easily target him to take that out of play, since essentially at the time he was the only "revealed" power role. Along with Ritoky (though it could be argued that since he said he'd open it and Damdred made no such claim, could have been waiting to see if it killed him or not...I still think the claim itself is scummy for reasons previously stated). As for FF...would we even know when we're in LYLO? Most all of your points could be explained by apathy...just feels more policy than anything. I guess my main problem with most of the wagons right now is they're not strongly supported and I see players that we could actually make a relatively solid case against. So you think GB is the most likely scum? I agree that he's done somewhat fishy stuff like asking for roleclaims and such. You'd need to convince me about that "close to 100% scum" though... He also made that HF case after all (at least partly lol). I wouldn't really call what Tube's been doing as "trying". He basically disappeared when I asked him to explain his reads. Before that he didn't really do anything noteworthy. I think your argument against ritoky was that it wouldn't be so easy to validate him being town after this. I think you're missing the point that when ritoky claimed, even in the worst case scenario (if all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands) ritoky would be risking either 1) the 33% risk of immediately dying or 2) the 50% risk of being counter-claimed and dying if he fakeclaimed opening it. I think both risks are unbearable for scum when easily the best approach seems to be just to hide it. Well, the ABSOLUTELY worst scenario would be that sicklucker is scum too and Mafia knew everything about the presents and thus could safely fakeclaim. But then why would sicklucker pass it on to town (Damdred)? And why would they claim at all especially in the stupid way that ritoky did? Apathy is usually associated to scum though it's not excluded to them. The LM case I think also points at more than just apathy for FF.... His stance on 27nb during D1 is so unnatural. | ||
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On December 14 2014 00:16 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Agreed with Xat on the gamestate and FF. I don't actually feel like FF is a high percentage mafia lynch, but if he's not going to play then he should probably die. I'm kind of "eh" on a Tube lynch. Then again, I'm kind of "eh" on every lynch because I don't see good reasons to vote a lot of people, and I feel like someone being super annoying and crazy is probably town. Inconsistent persona is something...I guess. Can someone explain the scumslip to me again? I'll have about an hour to play after I get back from business later today, and I won't be around for deadline. I'll do what I can when I'm around. He just casually talked about there being 5 scum in the scumteam when there was no indication of that being the case in the previous discussion. | ||
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On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote: Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider: Mafia is unlikely to give presents to town + Show Spoiler [Why?] + They have 66% chance of giving a important power to town. That said, if a mafia holds a present, he is most likely to give it to a partner and not opening it until they can see if the present town holds is the death one. Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present. This means: If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town. If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair. That's it guys. Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them. Yeah I agree with this post. sicklucker is most likely town and ritoky seems more likely town as well, just based on the present stuff. | ||
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On December 14 2014 00:50 GlowingBear wrote: Rsoultin, here is an example where mass claiming won the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/462188-iv-titanic-mafia-it-has-been-a-privilege So, really, scumreading me for that is silly. I don't think claims were really the deciding factor in that game? If I remember correctly, it was practically almost over when rayn got shot N1 and marv just gave up and started lurking. | ||
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On December 14 2014 01:10 rsoultin wrote: If all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands, let's follow this logic train, yes? They kill Damdred who obviously had the present and can't pass it on to someone else until the next day. Now they can claim what they want because no one can CC them. It's not a wild and crazy theory. It does assume that Ritoky isn't stupid/suicidal. I've already acknowledged I have an anti-idiot bias, but I'd rather play that way than assume that no one's actions mean anything because no one is ever thinking. -shrugs- Hmm. Even if all the worst assumptions are true, I think the clearly optimal scum play would be just to keep the presents to themselves. What was the scumteam's master plan for having ritoky claim it and putting him under extreme scrutiny where he might easily slip or look a lot worse than before? I don't think it's very feasible. I still stand by my opinion that the two more likely options are him simply being town and either fakeclaiming it to eat a NK/RB or truly claiming it and just making a suboptimal play. | ||
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On December 14 2014 01:19 GlowingBear wrote: I'm not ignoring it, I'm considering probability. Mafia can do whatever they want to do. But it is likely that they do that? I don't believe so. He obviously received the present because I sent it to him. Unnecessary to claim it as mafia. Also, I know the setup was open on titanic v, but the thing is that a lot of vts died, the probability of we having a lot of power roles alive is high and if we all claim, we will be able to narrow people and discussion. We will narrow our lunch targets a lot. Anyway, it doesn't matter now because it is a better idea to not claim. Masons are confirmed to each other, aren't they? Because if they are, we will have another confirmed town without a power role. Do you understand why claiming masons is okay? I guess it would be a decent idea to claim Mason if you're in danger of being lynched. Well, that also depends on if LM left any kind of clue behind. But claiming unnecessarily right now would just make scum's work easier (easier to narrow down blue roles and use the VT-killing role). | ||
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On December 14 2014 01:20 GlowingBear wrote: Xat, mafia gave up on that game because the threat of mass claiming was real. They conceded because of that, if I remember it correctly I just read the last pages and I think it was mostly because almost everyone was "confirmed town" after jumping on the correct wagon at the last moments. Well, whatever. Even if mass claiming was a decent option there, that game was that game and this game is this game. | ||
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On December 14 2014 01:27 rsoultin wrote: Meh, I don't know. My impression was ritoky and GB were already being scumread (ritoky more than GB) so it was a gamble. My impression may be wrong. I can see a legitimacy ploy (just like bussing a fellow mafia) if a mafia member is being scumread. And no, GB, I don't. Masons narrows down who might have roles for scum. Scum can claim named VTs if they want or go with the whole we don't know how many could be this role card if questioned about claiming something more powerful. I feel it's better for masons to only claim if they're in danger of being lynched. Well, everything is possible. It's a question of it being likely or not. I don't think it's very likely (at least the scumteams I've been part of haven't been very interested in ballsy plays - more like guaranteed safety such as distancing from teammates and blending in). Is your suggestion for lynch still GB? Who would be your second preference if you're not all that sure about Tube/FF? I don't think I want to lynch GB now. | ||
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On the other hand, Tube's recent posting has been so crazy and frantic that I can kind of see it coming more from town than scum...... Well, I don't like how he's throwing his vote pretty much anywhere it sticks, but he doesn't look like he cares much for his appearance. That's usually associated with town. I wouldn't lynch SL, HF or KSC now. Perhaps Tube is town too after all. rsoultin, is your case on Trfel basically about his inactivity? I think I'd rather lynch FF than him for reasons previously mentioned. ##Unvote ##Vote Fecalfeast I'll be phoneposting when I can until deadline. | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:37 rsoultin wrote: It is and it isn't and I know why you're voting FF, I just don't see it as a strong case. But neither is my trfel one. With him, it's inactivity and meta (I've only seen him super try-hard before). It's also that he keeps saying he'll post cases/reads and doesn't. That his only read at all was FF, and town of all things. Okay, he can read him town, but why is that his only read? And that he spends more time telling us how lost he is and that we shouldn't lynch him (but would be justified to) than actually playing. But if that's not enough for you, I can do FF. I just don't want to do one of my townreads...and that is where all the blasted wagons are going right now >< Yeah I agree. Trfel definitely seems a better lynch than players like HF/SL (lol). Well, I'd still prefer FF. | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:40 liancourt wrote: Stop throwing votes and vote kel KSC doesn't even have many votes and besides there are far better lynch candidates. | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:42 Tubesock wrote: I WILL GLADLY GO TO ANY OF MY MARKS. i DON'T CARE WHICH. Slam did say he was leaving. I KNOW there are some of you that know he is town. If you wagon off HF or me, and think I'm possibly correct, then the wagon has to be big enough to account for him not switching. What's your read on FF? He's the biggest alternative wagon to you. | ||
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Why do you even want to lynch KSC? | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:45 Alakaslam wrote: Not necessarily. I just finished my shower. I am set to leave but the wedding does not start for an hour and 15. But it is... ... Bad manners to be poring over your phone at a wedding. Gogo FF | ||
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On December 14 2014 05:47 liancourt wrote: This is such a bad reason. If u vote kel there will be enough votes You specifically said that votes would be wasted on other wagons when he didn't even have many votes (1 or 2). | ||
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On December 14 2014 06:00 Tubesock wrote: You believe FF is mafia more so than Lightningstrike? They are each basically interchangeable for me. Well then lynch FF. I think LS's claim is decently believable. | ||
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On December 14 2014 06:17 GlowingBear wrote: that's not the point. The point is: he says people are looking terrible but makes no attempt to discover their alignments. Simple as this. He couldn't change his read on froggy noddy - who someone assumed hasn't posted much - like that. There was no particular change of playstyle and he was scumreading him since the entrance. A scumread that was reinforced by a wasted vote. This kind of inconsistency isn't townie. Without reading through HF's filter (really can't do that now), I'd say that it isn't necessarily scummy to change your read without particular new information. You might just reread his filter, rethink stuff... And it's not like he flip-flopped within a small time period from your explanation. A lot can change during the game. Your other point is basically assuming that town HF would be more observant/persistent with stuff he notices? Dunno. I don't think I've pressured every single player I've mentioned either. | ||
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On December 14 2014 06:44 rsoultin wrote: @Xata Dude, you haven't wanted to lynch KSC all game. Trfel brought some good points against him. Do you have comments? Or a defense for KSC? Cause if not he's likely to be lynched. I'll be honest, you're the sole reason I haven't switched over to him already. Damn I can't really focus well right now. Anyways I looked at the case briefly earlier and I think KSC explained the last point decently during N1. I'll look at it again as soon as I can. I can lynch KSC over HF/SL though if it comes down to it. | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:05 liancourt wrote: you said earlier why we should vote kel and said that kel didnt have enough votes. now we have enough votes. Why aren't you voting him??? he is a contender for lynch and yet you are still voting for ff When did I ever push KSC to be lynched? It was the opposite. I'll go look at the case now though | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote KelsierSC | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:30 KelsierSC wrote: I'm really kind of out of it so dont know what the slam dunk case on me is. I adnit my d2 has been useless butninhave had to spend two nights in hospital. i mean i made a lot of good town reads and made my case on ff d1 , pretty strong case. I had a logical progression to ny vote. For nb i analysed her play very strongly end of d1, my concern with lynching het was to do with her role claim, ibdidbt want to lynch a power rile, looking at the game from. Different perspectives is a towny action not scummy. so i skimmed some stuff, i like gb he is town but just vote whatever my town circle votes. dam,hf,bats kosh,kit,tenplar.xat are the town leaders invite what vou vote for!! soulton is town too where is the vote list? Do you have other reasons for preferring FF lynch over you besides associative reasons? | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:39 KelsierSC wrote: Xat i don't wna get lynched IM town my ff read is good in my filter, not just introspective. Isbhe a role claim though indidny see it What does this even mean? Yeah I guess this lynch can do compared to many of the other options. It's also decently informative especially considering Trfel and FF. | ||
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On December 14 2014 07:49 marvellosity wrote: Counting something KelsierSC (8): liancourt (0): GlowingBear (0): Tubesock (2): ritoky (0): froggynoddy (0): Half the Sky (0): Holyflare (7): GlowingBear, Fecalfeast (2): Oatsmaster (0): Vivax (1): Oatsmaster sicklucker (0): Trfel (1): Currently KelsierSC is set to be lynched. 11m until deadline. Looking at the votecount I'm starting to think Oats might be a decent target for the shot. He just absolutely wasted his vote... He didn't care enough to even vote for his scumread (Froggy). It would have also been wasted, of course, but it's even worse that he didn't manage to vote his scumread during the day. | ||
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On December 14 2014 08:28 sicklucker wrote: I SAID IF YOU THINK YOUR GOING TO DIE TONIGHT AND YOU HAVE IMPORTANT INFORMATION SAY THAT INFORMATION RIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW STARTS. HINT HINT i DONT WANT ARE SANTAS ROLECHECKS TO BE WASTED IF ITS SOMEONE LIKE XATA WHO DIES. Yeah a lot of people died last night so the same might repeat here. Claim any gathered info at the deadline if you have something important and you think you might die. | ||
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On December 13 2014 17:58 Oatsmaster wrote: Because you clearly aren't a policy lynch? My views haven't changed, you are scum because you've shown none of the previous interest in the game. Vivax, is your best argument, look what this dead dude said?? It doesn't even look like you seriously looked through my filter. And kitas first point is speculation and bad. Second point is bad too, why don't I just go on the nb lynch rather than suggesting my own lynch and making a 'weak' effort to question someone else? Btw, froggy didn't respond to the question I asked. I really rethinking my read on you. It really rubs me the wrong way when you use flipped townies to justify your read. Well I guess this *might* mean Oats scumreading him..... It's still a very weak/wasted vote. Whatever. Oats can come back to the thread and redeem himself if he doesn't want to eat a bullet. | ||
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On December 14 2014 18:21 Vivax wrote: I mean, look at this. The guy he first calls the worst wagon, is suddenly someone "he can lynch" before he even reviewed the KSC case. Vivax, he was a worse lynch than ritoky or Tube, not worse than HF. Besides, by the end of D2, ritoky seemed better (considering the present analysis) and Tube looked better (his frantic deadline posting). Also I only said that I'd lynch KSC over HF before reading the case fully... Which had been my stance all along. You should really put a bit more effort in your arguments. | ||
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On December 15 2014 04:18 Vivax wrote: That's bullshit though, you mention arguments for Kelsier being town on multiple occasions, there is no evidence that all your arguments are based on PoE regarding Tube and ritoky. You townread him for the trap play since D1, keep that argument all throughout D2, only to throw it away when it looks like he's getting lynched. Yeah, his early plays (specifically the trap thing) were indeed more likely to come from town than scum. I still stand by those arguments even though he ultimately flipped scum. But the lynch was heading in the direction of KSC/HF so I just said things as they were (KSC would be the better lynch there). When I said that I hadn't fully read the case on him, but as I said earlier, KSC wasn't on the level of some of my other townreads that were being voted (HF/SL at the time) and the case clearly had some merit when so many decently townish posters (rsoultin for example?) agreed with it. When I got around to read the whole case, I could see for myself that there were some points about KSC's play that I hadn't been paying full attention when I was preoccupied with your stupid case on him. So yeah. I don't really get what you're trying to say. | ||
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On December 15 2014 05:05 Vivax wrote: Dude you have no idea how formulaic and artificial you sound when you're scum. I remember that game where you were town and EVERYBODY had trouble reading you until town started winning. That's cause you were more natural and less diplomatic than you are now. I'm here in the thread, talk to me, you put a vote with no effect on a scummer you townread since D1 right at EoD piling up a bunch of half-assed reasons. You ignored what I wrote on Kelsier D1. You townread him for trap play before he explained it was trap play. Yes, I already mentioned this. And if you want to push me as scumread then start immediately cause I wanna have a good laugh. No, he explained that it was a trap play well before I even came to the thread. You were already proven wrong earlier... On December 09 2014 09:30 KelsierSC wrote: So i think fecal is scum, we played a game together as town and early game he was very try hard, essentially Kush made a set up/mechanics comment and fecal went back to the setup, worked through all the permutations and then asked Kush to explain. Super town super eager. this game i make a set up comment, then retract it and ff doesn't bat n eyelid. All he does is talk to slam about sumo. Which is pretty pointless. Like "herez an excuse nit to scumhunt" it doesn't feel towny at all On December 10 2014 09:15 KelsierSC wrote: Ah cool tubesock didn't read the thread. my scrooge play was to get a specific read on ff i explained that before. Outside of that i have given lots of good town reads, all of which are developed reads not one liners, weird misrepresentation of my play again. If you need more explanation , ask. fyi a guy talking to a girl isn't flirting, grow up. Think what you will. You'll never lynch me with those arguments or some gut feeling on my meta... When I don't think you really even know my meta. I'm not always polite as scum or always a spamfest as town haha | ||
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On December 15 2014 05:38 Vivax wrote: Judging from your filter, Xata, you have no scumreads now and for some reason you aren't suspicious of Oats. ....What? I just specifically said that Oats needs attention from his apathy / vote behaviour. And I do have reads. I just don't think it's the best time to go making lists right now. | ||
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On December 15 2014 06:07 Vivax wrote: Cool that you try to take cred for pointing out something about someone you don't wanna read either way. If you're so sure your points were good, and still are, why not scumread him? There's plenty of scum left and FF was your last read. It's not clear where you stand now. This is giving me flashbacks of Damdred from last game... Originally I thought Oats was quite likely scum for not caring much about the D2 lynch. Then some people pointed out that as scum he should have showed up at deadline as KSC was a lynch candidate so maybe he really was just busy yesterday. So now I'm somewhat back to null on him. | ||
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Semi-confirmed / highly likely town: Fecalfeast Not only was he likely greenchecked by Trfel, but also pushed and voted by KSC throughout the game. The greencheck alone might be explained by a Godfather role or misinterpreting Trfel's filter, but combined with KSC's play it's highly unlikely that he would flip scum. Vivax Has a role claim without counter-claim. Mostly the fact that fake claiming would be very stupid for him when he was under no real pressure and might have risked an immediate lynch if there was a counter-claim. LightningStrike See: Vivax. rsoultin Has consistently made good points and mostly shared arguments that I could resonate with. Has also been very active and a voice of reason in the game. Overall a very townish player. Holyflare Despite his slight lack of involvement at times (apparently because of IRL stuff), he's clearly thinking a lot about the game and pushing his own opinions whenever he's in the thread. After reading GB's cases I still can't find any compelling reason to believe that he's scum this game. Question marks: sicklucker Earlier I was quite sure of him being town based on his claim and the way he did it, but more recently I haven't really been impressed with his posts. The claim also seems like something not that risky to fake claim as scum. He wouldn't still really be a good lynch based on his towny vibes during D1. Half the Sky Early on I felt her play felt scummy, then it's pretty much set at null / slight town lean. Not really a good lynch. froggynoddy Has seemed pretty passive and evasive all game. I don't really get the feeling that it's scum motivated though, more like timid town. This is after just rereading his filter yesterday. Earlier I thought he might be scum... Now I'm leaning more towards town. We'll see. Alakaslam I'm not really sure how to read him. Slight town feels? liancourt I can't make sense of him, kind of like Alakaslam. Hopefully following events will shed more light on him. ritoky I still stand by my argument that it wouldn't make sense for the scumteam to claim like he did. It's harder to see him as town when his bullet apparently did nothing, though. Didn't he really open it? Or was he roleblocked and OWS's or his target was protected or something? The explanation of him being scum seems a bit more likely now than it did before. He would have claimed it by now if he fakeclaimed the whole thing (as town) so that can't be it. batsnacks A real question mark for me currently. Tubesock His hectic posting at the deadline actually felt pretty genuine. There's still the weird slip, his changes in style and such to keep in mind. Scum lean: The_Templar He's pretty much flown under my radar all game after his claim and pretty forgettable posting style. Mostly a gut feeling for now. Oatsmaster Keeps wasting his votes (doesn't even vote for his biggest scumread froggy during D2) and hasn't really done anything to further town goals. Scum or the most apathetic townie I've seen in ages. GlowingBear Still continuing role fishing (which has a clear scum motivation), tunneling HF with pretty weak arguments (I don't think I've yet seen anything that couldn't be well explained by time/post restraints) and weird reluctance to get HF shot at night (no, "he might be town" doesn't cut it when GB has tunneled him for the longest time - the easiest explanation would be that he'd rather keep the mislynch around...). I've been undecided on him for a while but at this point I think he's probably scum. His flip would also be decently telling (mostly regarding players like HF and SL). ##Vote GlowingBear | ||
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On December 15 2014 23:14 Holyflare wrote: You don't have to look at meta to see oats is scummy. No idea why you only have a tiny bit based on his content and those things aren't even the things that make oats scummy. It's things like this where he tries to shut down wagons (on conveniently town wagons (pending ff isn't gf or something) based on really just nothing. It's worse when he tries to shit on the ff lynch because of his post count and not the content especially as there were lots of content cases on ff at that point and i don't think it was till after vivax called him out that he started adding more reasons why the lynch was bad (the nk analysis things etc). He is just uninvolved and downplaying lynches to end up only lynching lurkers. ^ This post explains well why Oats is more of a scum lean rather than just null by now. | ||
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On December 15 2014 13:16 rsoultin wrote: Eh, Xatalos. For awhile I thought he'd be a good person to listen to/sheep. What I mean by that is people have town reads, yes, but not all your town reads are going to be players you actually agree with. Xatalos is logical and appeals to my need for things to make sense, and I was townreading him. I'm less certain of him now. Not so much because of the voting at the end of the day, but because I went back through his filter when Vivax was riding him. He's very...noncommittal through most of it? Yes I know this is something to do with tone. But his reads and statements came off very cautious to me, like he's reluctant to make scum reads or something. Cautious about bunnies, reading KSC as town because his move was "too bold" for mafia, lynching bunnies cause no reason not to, noncommittal about HF and Vivax still being alive after night 1 (like he's hinting that they might be scum but not willing to pursue it), focusing on Tubes "scumslip", FF then becomes "too scum to be scum"...but then goes back to scumreading him for something called "Occam's razor"? I'm assuming that means if it smells like a rat it's a rat in layman's terms, but I haven't looked it up. Don't see any point where he's reading someone as strongly scummy, just this side of null. And he does seem to dismiss KSC as a potential lynch entirely, too, but that could just be a town being wrong. I also don't see (though I might have missed it) where his ritoky read changed from town to a possible lynch. Xatalos said he had reads but wouldn't give them Night 2. He may have had his reasons, but I'd like to see them now. I'm not scum-reading him, per se, but there are doubts in my head now. I think I just didn't notice him as much because he's not as vocal/confrontational as a lot of the other players, and I don't know that caution in and of itself is a exclusive to scum, but given how often he's commented that scum wouldn't do anything to draw attention to themselves, and then seeing how cautiously he's been playing...it does bring up doubts. Heh. Paranoia is natural. Didn't really get that ritoky point though? | ||
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On December 16 2014 03:44 LightningStrike wrote: Guys I think the Mass Murderer is out of bullets because he will be given only 2 bullets to try to kill people and since there is no refund in bullets if I recalled reading the role description it's only going to be 1 death per night now so we got some time to figure out who is scum but we still under pressure though to get out some scum members to make connections on the remaining scum members thus we win the game as town. Mafia KP formula is: 2KP Each mafia player can only deliver one bullet, so in practice it drops to one when 1 mafia remains. ? | ||
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On December 16 2014 04:04 LightningStrike wrote: I got GB null leaning scum but I would rather lynch Tubesock right now read my thing on him earlier on why. Yeah I agree that he doesn't seem to pay much attention and the slips are disturbing. What's holding me back is his crazy posting streak before deadline... It'd be hard for a beginner scum to post like that. | ||
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On December 16 2014 04:18 GlowingBear wrote: -.- None of you has good reasons against me. Jesus. You've tunneled HF for the longest time for much worse reasons. | ||
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On December 16 2014 04:44 Fecalfeast wrote: I was never sold on tubesack being town but there was one post that made me wonder Who gives an ultimatum between himself and his scum buddy? Heh yeah that seems pretty weird. Overall I don't think he's the best lynch. All of GB/Oats/Templar look worse IMO. Oats and Templar more for apathy/uselessness while GB for pushing scum agenda (fishing roles, tunneling HF all the time but advicing not to shoot him etc.). | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote ritoky | ||
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I agree with the GB case with the exception of his required time to come up with the case. I don't think that's particularly indicative of anything. By the way, it's a good point that his stances have changed a lot and quite weirdly too (for example on you, rsoultin... It does look like sheeping sentiment.) Vivax, how do you come to the conclusion that someone who has effectively claimed scum should get more time? | ||
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On December 16 2014 22:12 LightningStrike wrote: rsoultin just made a case on GB a couple posts ago for next Day lynch. How you feel about the case rsoultin made for GB lynch for next Day lynch? Read the post you quoted or my earlier post (TLDR: agreed). | ||
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.... What's this supposed to mean GB? | ||
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I'll need to read for my final exam tomorrow but I'll probably check the thread a bit closer to deadline. | ||
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On December 17 2014 04:39 batsnacks wrote: How many people are scum reading ritoky but not HF? If this is true for you pls explain why you are scum reading ritoky. @ritoky please walk me through from the beginning exactly what happened with you claiming and how much of what youve said is true. Start from when you first received the present, if you even did receive a present. He continuously lied and backtracked today about his plays. He also disappeared after that without really doing anything convincing for him to be town. | ||
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On December 17 2014 11:25 Vivax wrote: You forget to consider protective roles, and I'm sorry to disappoint you, but my claim is completely legit, the mass murderer only has 2 bullets he can withhold, and sl's claim is also most likely legit. Basing all your reads on night actions and setup speculation presuming you knew what they were is veeeery bad play. On the other hand you 180 ° on HF knowing that scum preferred voting Kelsier over him (might be that he asked to be bussed while being in hospital cause he couldn't play though, so his buddies could harvest some cred, that's also pretty speculative). Ultimately it's better to focus on the actual plays rather than all this stuff, although given the difficulty in reading HF's plays it might be worth giving it a shot in his case. For once I can agree... It's pretty weak to base your reads around night actions you can't even know for sure. And Vivax/LS probably can't be scum (assuming the setup isn't something stupid like Scrooge without Ghosts). | ||
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On December 17 2014 16:37 liancourt wrote: whats happening | ||
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On December 17 2014 18:16 Vivax wrote: Xata, help me out, these are the possible scummers in my book atm: Templar Froggy Oats GB HF You(?) Hell even Fecalfeast doesn't seem unfeasible even tho he got greenchecked (I revisited the N1 kills, kita, Damdred, Koshi, all of them suspected ritoky, but most also FF, Kita suspected Oats, and froggy was suspicious-y. Can you pick 3 you would lynch and tell me who you'd rather see as scum between HF/GB? Not like you never talked about it but I 'd like to know your present opinion. Not that much has changed with ritoky's flip. At least 2 of GB/Oats/Templar are probably scum and then we should look at people like Tube... I've yet to see a good reason for thinking that HF is scum. *Maybe* that vote split argument but it's pretty WIFOM and not based on his own play at all. | ||
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On December 17 2014 08:21 Fecalfeast wrote: I received a present and am opening it. ... | ||
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On December 17 2014 18:39 Vivax wrote: Any reason for froggy not being an option? He's like the least active of the bunch. I'd say he's null at worst. I studied his filter some days ago and left more the impression of newb town than newb scum. | ||
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I agree that Templar doesn't look good. He basically fits the pattern of a passive lurking scum that coasts by just barely avoiding becoming a lynch candidate... Following thread sentiment and throwing suspicion wherever it sticks. I could easily see him flipping scum. Then again, there are many good arguments against GB as well. My gut feeling is that Templar would fit the classic scum playstyle better than GB, but GB has actively pushed scum agenda in the thread (role fishing, tunneling HF while not wanting to see him flip when it counts and not responding to counter-arguments, shifting reads for the weirdest reasons or no real reasons at all...). I think GB has a slightly better chance of flipping scum atm. Although both may well flip. | ||
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On December 18 2014 22:58 Holyflare wrote: not gonna comment on that giant wall i just posted...? Yeah just read it and the "I agree about Templar" referred to that. I don't think there's any single particularly strong point for him being scum in the case, just the overall sense of him sheeping sentiment, throwing random suspicion and staying out of the spotlight, which I agree with. Well, the fact that his reads have very flimsy reasoning is actually a pretty good point purely on its own. Are you confident on him flipping scum more likely than GB though? | ||
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On December 18 2014 23:22 rsoultin wrote: Okay -_- So for those of you who don't like wall posts I will make my stance simple. Most of my points on GB could happen as either town or mafia. Town can flip their reads on a gut read (odd that the one it protects is scum, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything) to someone instead of focusing on genuinely scummy behavior. Town can digress into a "town only gives presents to town" WIFOM for no reason. Town can speculate on set-ups and base scum reads on that. Town can tunnel. All of these things together look worse...or at least make the player look like a bad town player...but there are a couple things that are scum-motivated that have no town motivation at all: - Continually calling for mass claiming in an open set-up where scum has 2-3KSs.Or calling for certain individuals to claim (carolers, those who were roleblocked, vet) - Attempting to take credit for a lynch when he did not catch the lie, and furthermore did not vote for the player being lynched, when he clearly had enough time to do so. His defense that he was trying to see who would jump onto a third train was never followed through on...he is back on his old soapbox today. ^ There are no reasons that these are town behaviors. Plain and simple. You can ignore everything else and write it off as a pisspoor town player, but there are no reasons for a town player to do these two things. HF may well be scum, I don't know. But I haven't seen him do scummy things, and I have seen GB do a multitude. Again, if you want to base your lynch decisions on WIFOM, presents, and set-up speculation...be my guest. Don't be surprised if it comes back to bite you in the arse though. Yeah I agree. For both of those the scum motivation is strong and the town motivation is non-existent. I like Templar as scum too, though. But at least he hasn't actively pushed scum agenda. ##Vote GlowingBear | ||
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Do you have some reason to believe Templar is more likely scum than GB? | ||
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On December 19 2014 00:30 Holyflare wrote: rsoul's case on gb has been posted for like a cycle and a half already so all he did was repost what he's already said and it somehow suddenly convinced you from voting templar to voting gb I voted GB yesterday though, not Templar. Until ritoky slipped. When did I go from Templar to GB? | ||
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On December 19 2014 00:26 Holyflare wrote: literally everything in my case makes him mafia unless you can prove that there is towny motivation behind it so to have a difference in care of who to vote is, like vivax said, fucking weird The question is which is the best lynch, not if Templar is a *good* lynch or not. Like I said, I think your case is decent. | ||
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On December 19 2014 00:58 Vivax wrote: Xatalos is clearly squirming after saying that the only reason he prefers GB is that he's pushing scum agenda "more openly", cause it's very important to put an end to his poisonous thread influence while templar doesn't do anything of the sort and only scums in silence, so he deserves to live a bit longer (lol). Xata if you were town it would be in your best interest to vote Templar cause he's likely to gain more traction than GB which would also prevent your townread HF from being lynched, and yet now you put it like you have reasons to believe one is more likely scum than the other??? What's giving you the feel that Templar could be town? Nothing, but ... (insert your excuse here) Ugh.... It feels like you make less and less sense each day. It's not like I have a huge preference between them. Let me ask you a question: there are players A and B, both of whom look like scum. You think A has done more scummy things and should have slight preference. However, you're willing to lynch both of them. Now why would you put down your vote on B first? You can just consolidate on B later if needed. | ||
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On December 19 2014 01:25 Holyflare wrote: I do not want another lynch like the one that happened the other day where I almost died. I want a nice consolidated thread where I know where everyone lies and for what reasons so that I can judge them on what they are posting. There's nothing wrong with consolidating at 24 hours, 12 hours, 1 hour if you have cases on 2 people. That read on gb has been out there for ages and my templar one has only just come up. Literally all of my templar case is damning but he says it's more of an overall case rather than someone doing scummy things outright but doesn't really explain how it's like that at all when it's not. There should be no difference between the 2 cases if they both look like mafia because 1 has done stupid retarded shit all game and the other has done scummy tootling along in the thread things, both are scummy but he tries to assign different levels of scummyness to people that are just scummy. What's the point other than trying to over explain why you are on someone rather than the other? There isn't really at all. If you have 3 people who look like scum and you get to decide the lynch, do you just randomize the lynch? I didn't think so. | ||
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On December 19 2014 01:26 Vivax wrote: Well for him they should equally be scum but he finds a reason to lynch one scum first. It's not that he thinks Templar has some townie points to him, it's that he says he isn't pushing mafia agenda openly and doesn't have to be lynched so quickly. I have no idea how that doesn't sound like a cheap excuse to you. For me, mafia is mafia. Whether you vote Oats, Templar or Xata (HF I'm least sure on tbh, biggest argument for me is still ritoky voting Kelsier and bats dying from pressing that point) doesn't matter to me. Like, the only reason for me to prefer a scum over the other is when I'm more confident about one guy over the other, and not the way they play in the thread, yet that is Xata's argument. He goes like "Oh well Templar is scum too, but cause he plays more passively I wouldn't lynch him first". Like... why is your vote on HF then? It doesn't make any sense. | ||
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On December 19 2014 02:00 Holyflare wrote: I just wouldn't really care who gets lynched and for all I care flipping a coin on them would be the best way to choose. Haha. I doubt you'd end up in a situation where 3 people would look 100% equally scummy. Everyone has preferences even if the differences aren't that great. | ||
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On December 19 2014 02:16 Holyflare wrote: I mean like I was thinking to myself about gb right and I was like... yeh he's just genuinely awful a lot of the time. Then the more and more confirmation biased he became and the more wifom he decided to direct into me being mafia the more just awful he seemed instead of scummy because he actually believes his shit is ironclad when it's impossible to be then i looked at templar and i was like fuck that guy is mafia let's lynch him and here we are How do you explain these things from an awful town GB? 1) Repeatedly fishing for roles 2) Being reluctant to lynch ritoky/KSC and continuing his bad tunnel on you when they're in danger, but at other times not seeming so confident in that read (during the discussion of you being shot for example) | ||
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On December 19 2014 02:41 Vivax wrote: Can you give me a brief summary in own words of why you think that GB is scum? Yeah it's a pain to read -.-' Oh come on dude. Are you serious? I'm discussing with you to get onto Templar, next thing you do is point out the next best thing you can call an inconsistency Oh come on dude. Are you serious? I'm discussing with you to get onto Templar, next thing you do is point out the next best thing you can call an inconsistency. Ok, serious face. Why is my vote on HF? Cause I voted for him before. Does it matter it's still there when I'm talking about switching to Templar? Your guess? Or did you think I'd keep my vote on HF until EoD after asking you to switch your vote to Templar and that I want a consolidated wagon on him and you could help at that cause. You didn't say you found GB scummier you said "GB is pushing scum agenda in the thread while Templar isn't". Dunno if it didn't get across well but yes, I think GB is more likely to flip scum. It's not like I think they're equally scummy and GB's scum play is more "threatening" or whatever. It's just that there are some things I have very hard time believing town GB could have done whereas there's nothing towny about Templar, but nothing absolutely damning either (although there's a lot of circumstantial scummy stuff from him). | ||
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On December 19 2014 02:28 Holyflare wrote: I highlighted the word for you. If gb doesn't end up voting templar he's literally mafia though. There's absolutely no reason not to be on templar right now even after he said my case was actually good and he knows it will be the person that will be lynched at the end of the day because i'm pushing it. It's not just that he'd have to be extremely awful as a town player. He'd need to be actively advancing scum's win conditions while being town. No matter how anti-town one may be (see: Kush), it's difficult to believe that he would do everything in his power to make town lose as town. | ||
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On December 19 2014 02:57 Vivax wrote: Can you be more specific? Why is GB a better lynch than Templar? Why has GB done big favors for scum? 1) Role fishing (although not very successful, he has at least reinforced the opinion that there's a merit to claiming roles and perhaps led to some of the role claims so far - which is very useful for the scumteam for several reasons such as aiming NK's and deciding future plans) 2) He's repeatedly attacked HF's credibility for bad reasons and made him into a recurring lynch candidate, even though he's probably just town with some time/post restraints... And then he advocated not shooting HF at night when it could have possibly resolved his long-time tunnel. But it looks like it'd be nicer for him to be able to continue that tunnel. And of course that'd be nice for the whole scumteam as well. (this is assuming that HF is town, but there's also the weirder scenario where they're both scum and GB's goal has been to bring down HF's credibility so that it's not weird for him to live so long... lol) | ||
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On December 19 2014 03:18 Fecalfeast wrote: Sheepalfeast awakens! ##vote: The_templar rofl I don't even know anymore | ||
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I don't see how having more arguments necessarily means that the overall case is better. Quality over quantity. Can you describe the strongest arguments for Templar being scum in your own words? If you convince me, then I promise to advocate lynching Templar from now on. To everyone still voting HF: do you really think he's scum over GB/Templar? | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote The_Templar | ||
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On December 20 2014 03:58 rsoultin wrote: Lol wasn't Tube the one going on about getting framed for getting passed a present? I don't think he ever claimed it. So that and his "slip" are your reasons, right, LS? Alright, I'll go with Templar cause I'm going out and not certain I'll be back for EoD. That said, I still think GB is more likely to flip scum -shrugs- Templar has some issues, but I could see him being just an apathetic lurker all too easily, unfortunately... ##unvote ##vote Templar Haha synchronized vote timing | ||
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On December 20 2014 04:07 LightningStrike wrote: This was my case on Tubesock. That's not much of a case but yeah, it is one suspicious point about him that's difficult to explain away. | ||
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On December 20 2014 06:07 rsoultin wrote: Lol, realistically, I hope so. It either can or it can't. There are eight on Templar, so it doesn't threaten anyone's lynch preference for me to stick to my guns for awhile xP I only switched over because I didn't know how long I'd be out doing the Xmas shopping. My concern is the cheering squad has been quite vocal the other times when we were lynching scum instead of HF. Now they're not. As I said, I'm paranoid. The Templar case has some points, but nothing that I see that couldn't happen if he were town. -shrugs- Not gonna force y'all to join me. Hmm... I don't really think it's realistic to lynch GB at this point. Although I must say I'm a bit worried that it was easier to get the Templar wagon rolling than GB even though the GB case is a bit stronger. | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:06 Fecalfeast wrote: HF ISN'T HERE? This sounds like someone's gonna get mad, I'm in. ##unvote ##vote holyflare Lol | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:20 Fecalfeast wrote: Why don't we all just shenannigan onto tubesock? HAHA. Well, that wouldn't be the worst choice but I very much doubt we'd have enough votes for that either. | ||
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##Vote Tubesock | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:32 sicklucker wrote: ohhhh my goddd you guys have lost your minds. How is tube more scummy then oats. Hf Oats templar in that order for me. LETS DO OATS There's the scumslip and his activity drop once he got away from pressure, for example. | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:45 GlowingBear wrote: Stop being stupid and see how fast the tube lynch got traction And you wonder if he is a good lynch. Lol... Last minute shenanigans are usually town-based since the scumteam have a hard time organizing anything so quickly. | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:48 Fecalfeast wrote: GB makes a good point on voting HF. If he's town he gets super mad, if he's mafia we get super glad... Not really worth ruining the game to get a moment's joy. | ||
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On December 20 2014 07:51 Fecalfeast wrote: Yeah but remember that time I shenannied on to kush and he was mafia? That was awesome Which game? Well, regardless, just follow through with what you started -.- | ||
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By the way, why did you even shoot me FF? Am I really your top scumread? How come? Where did this vote come from? Just from action speculation...? Ugh. GB: I'll admit that I haven't been as involved in this game compared to my last couple of games. It's a combination of some IRL stuff (Christmas is approaching + two university deadlines), the posting restrictions and the fact that I've been mostly wrong about my reads so far. It reminds me a bit of this game ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=Xatalos ) - although in that game I trolled a lot which is impossible here considering the posting restrictions. | ||
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##Vote The_Templar Oats may well be scum as well. He's also very apathetic and hasn't really contributed anything recently... Undecided on HTS. I think she's probably not a good lynch for now though. | ||
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On December 21 2014 23:01 rsoultin wrote: @ Xata Could you please give me reads on Oats, Slam and GB? @ GB Same, only Oats, Slam and Xata? The same way Slam gave them is fine, really. Doesn't have to be fancy at all. Also, I know the following isn't like a major shocker or anything given the fit and the tunnel vision this dude has, but he can't even be assed to make a post in the thread at all? Not even just a, you guys stupid; vote HF? I saw him do this yesterday, but held off just in case he planned on making a follow-up post in here. Oats: scum lean based on overwhelming disinterest towards scumhunting (or pretty much anything) Slam: no idea, I can't really read him well GB: scum lean based on previously mentioned reasons | ||
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On December 21 2014 23:06 rsoultin wrote: We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian. What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at. Yeah I guess it might not be LYLO yet (unless there's 4 scum left?). Hm. I think that FF was most likely RB'd if he's town (the only clear "role" to RB after all) and it's possible that he was also RB'd as scum, although it's less likely. Either way I don't see how this makes me scum? | ||
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On December 21 2014 23:27 rsoultin wrote: ... That really does not look like a green check. I mean, that really, really looks like a poor assumption we all made as a thread. Why would he say anything about keeping FF on a short leash if he thought he was town? Hm. My first thought was he'd word it that way to confuse the scum bluehunters, but on the other hand, he posted that at the *end of the night* when it was too late to change anything. So it's possible that you're correct....... | ||
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On December 21 2014 23:37 Half the Sky wrote: Xatalos, Ockham's razor. There were what, at least six people scumreading you after N4? I don't see a reason to doubt FF, but I've been townreading him since end of D2. It is possible but statistically unlikely he is the godfather. But others have brought points against you too. And leaving out GB's case, Vivax had flipped town, so now we know the stuff he said would tend to be more reliable. Town != correct. Vivax even scumread you last night so it's hard to imagine you're sheeping his opinions... And he was a role so it's not a wonder to get killed. And what case from GB? I don't think he made his case yet. Even without assuming that FF is GF or that we misunderstood Trfel, there are several ways that both me and FF could be town (for example: FF got roleblocked or I was attacked or scum attacked a Veteran). | ||
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On December 21 2014 23:39 GlowingBear wrote: This is the laziest town ever, including me. I didn't see anybody trying to filter dive the scums to find out associations. Xat, inactivity is not really the problem. The problem is that I can't see you dropping your thoughts clearly in the thread or actually trying to solve the game like I'm used to see you doing. I remember perfectly me getting all crazy in you for you saying "If he isn't town, he is scum", lol. This was after a long description of your thought process. I don't see any of these things in your filter. Actually, I see more rough, objective reads, without too many stream of thoughts, which, in my experience, isn't your usual play. @Rsoultin: Oats: probably scum due to inactivity. If town is degladiating themselves, scum will usually sit back and let town die. This image fits oats behaviour. This is how scum usually plays big games. More than this, oats tends to be more contributive, actually calling people scum and going for it. I usually see oats doing this as town: "you're stupid, you're wrong, because of this." In this game, he is just saying "you're stupid, you're wrong". He says everything me and Vivax speak of is convoluted, but then agrees with Vivax list. I have yet to understand he logic behind this. I've explained Xat on the first paragraph. Slam: I don't know man. I saw things that makes me believe slam is town. But I think slam would be more involved in the game when it's LYLO, like he was in Avogadro Mafia. The worst part now is that he is clearly reading the thread, as you ask him for reads and he answers, but doesn't provide reasoning. This is a sign that slam may be mafia. So I'm going from town to null on him. Well, my playstyle fluctuates too. A heavy factor in this game is that I can't just spam the thread when I have a post limit. | ||
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On December 22 2014 00:23 rsoultin wrote: We had one NK last night and FF claimed to try to shoot you. My two versions were the simplest ones, nigella attempting to "block/save" you would negate his shot and yours if you were scum. A roleblocker on a scum FF would also explain the night actions without assuming multiple role interactions. There are of course other possibilities involving multiple role interactions, but statistically it's more unlikely the more roles you assume were involved in night actions. Well, I think FF being RB'd is the most likely scenario. I guess it's more obvious to me since it's quite a bit more likely than me being saved, I'd think :D | ||
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On December 22 2014 00:33 GlowingBear wrote: Again, I'm not talking about level of activity. I'm talking about the way you're writing your posts or the way you're approaching the game, which is different from the way I'm used to see you doing. If you mean I'm more collected/focused, that's probably true. The post limits are the biggest reason for that I'd say. | ||
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On December 22 2014 00:33 Half the Sky wrote: Maybe not formal case, but this is the post I was referring to, but I had said before this anyway. So you're willing to throw away everything else for some highly speculative night action analysis? | ||
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On December 22 2014 00:40 sicklucker wrote: Well for one he wasint one of five idiots who voted out an obvious town yesterday????. Like we dont worry about ff unless we think the last mafia is that specific role Haha actually he started the wagon? :D | ||
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On December 22 2014 11:21 GlowingBear wrote: So, if we talk about town Xatalos, we are mostly talking about an absurd filter length. But more than filter length, Xatalos is a guy who keeps his thoughts in the thread, not in his mind, and is constantly trying to solve the game. I've picked up a game where we played together, it was Guilty Mini Mafia. This is a post he had on his second page of filter: + Show Spoiler + On August 22 2014 19:17 Xatalos wrote: Damdred -1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)? raynpelikoneet -1 Robik made a funny point about the way how rayn would have stayed up as town (and he even said that he would stay for the deadline too??) haha - started really aggressive after that, nothing really special to say about that, just a bit of an uncomfortable feeling with the not posting at night despite apparently staying up around the deadline... and somehow his reads feel a bit too certain/forced? let's just say null with some concern for now Hapahauli 0 justanothertownie 0 Onegu 0 VayneAuthority 0 IAmRobik 1 Casually townreading people etc. just feels a bit towny, probably KelsierSC 1 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe yamato77 1 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town? turtlevine 2 obvious smurf... pretty funny/constructive opening post, townish feels I guess GlowingBear 4 a LOT less awkward than in the Arnie game IMO, so town? yeah seems pretty natural at posting overall, and constructive, so towntown WaveOfShadow 4 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now You see, he is someone who has reads on a lot of people and contributes with discussion by exteriorising them. More than that, he takes original stances on people. Here is another post by Xatalos on day 1: + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2014 00:08 Xatalos wrote: KSC - yeah probably town, really feels like he believes his own ideas and pushes them strongly without care for how he's viewed as a result jat - no idea, how do you townread him so strongly? he had a humongous filter as scum earlier so not activity... and he immediately jumped to discredit me without calling me scum when you called me scum... I just can't feel the strong townread so help me here Robik - not as sure as last game but yeah leaning town for being pretty active and posting stuff you - still not sure, I think you're very capable of doing everything you've done so far as scum so hard to townread you WOS - my earlier townread on him was a bit faulty so I don't really anyhow heavily townread him anymore, why is he scum though? GB - I don't necessarily think he's town anymore, his weird connection read on me+WOS, curiousness about someone townreading him, and overall awkward posts lately don't look good... could be scum I guess You see, he is already giving reads on a lot of people. But more than this: he is contributing without being asked to contribute. Take a look at the nested quote. Rayn isn't directing a question towards Xatalos. Xatalos is posting this because he wanted to contribute, he wanted to discuss his reads. I'll go ahead into later days to show you that he keeps the "solving the game" stance throughout the whole thread: + Show Spoiler + On August 27 2014 01:15 Xatalos wrote: Still weird that he refused to vote for Robik when 1) he claimed to follow jat's lead and jat voted for Robik 2) he didn't have any real opinion of Robik (except "Robik being Robik") and didn't exactly townread me, but agreed with me a lot and didn't seem to at least suspect me. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2014 02:17 Xatalos wrote: Actually I just had a thought. In the Arnie game Damdred constantly asked me these little questions to share my reads more / make me more readable. Damdred's play here reminds me a lot of that. So yeah, I don't want to lynch Damdred today. + Show Spoiler + On August 26 2014 02:50 Xatalos wrote: Here are my "condensed" reads >.> VayneAuthority -2 not really a fan of his posts so far, I think someone said that he's pretty serious as scum and trolly as town? serious so far... seems to focus only on survival + made a rather dubious roleclaim claimed JOAT early on D2 "to survive" Onegu -1 AFK and still catching up :/ - entered the game constructively and tried to figure out the game, probably town... Hapa made good points about him being reckless to push rayn as scum + showing suspicion towards a Mason claim haha - well hasn't done much lately so dropped points - rayn flipping town puts him into worse light especially since he just threw his vote on rayn and disappeared Damdred 1 Pretty forgettable posts so far instead of awkward like last time.... scum(my)? - actually his more recent posts mirror my thoughts so town? - rayn made a decent(ish) point about him perhaps being SK since he's a bit forgettable/passive??? and also looked for bluetells earlier... but still not a D1 lynch - worst D1 deadline vote, not good - actually his little questions to me remind a lot of the Arnie game so rather wait and see than lynch for now, feels like potentially town Hapahauli 2 entered with great posts on rayn & me, quite confident that he's town - then dropped rayn suddenly, weird, possible scum after all? dunno, doesn't feel like a good D1 lynch anyway - went on to lynch Mafia GF which makes him a lot more towny - possible SK still considering rayn NK? KelsierSC 3 "tryhardish" opening post that is actually fluff - and the theme continues.... :/ ugh so awkward, but also confrontational, so maybe just awkwardly tryhard? - really eager to lynch "useless" people ugh..? what is this... well continues to antagonize people so prolly town maybe? dunno... well seems so tryhard that I guess town maybe... yeah I guess so - well he's been defending rayn and pushing me with very forced reasons so not confident about him being town anymore (though he'd be very stupid if he's scum with rayn) - well more likely town still, very fearless if scum WaveOfShadow 3 Reveals willingly which players he's confident in reading and responds to Kelsier in a pretty casual/townish(?) way - really casual posting style so town lean for now - really active/chatty in Championship as scum though so could be scum too - but he's still pretty happily participating in the discussion and felt genuinely frustrated at some point so town after all? - away for a lot of crucial discussion which drops his points by one - well he's come back to the thread and his posts seem pretty good lately - his thoughts resonated with my thoughts around deadline quite a bit which is good yamato77 3 said nothing noteworthy yet - well started making some jokey posts so town? very lurky though which is scummy for him - re-entered the thread with vengeance and has been very townish, I'd say even obvtown level pretty much - Hapa made some good points about him lacking confidence and going on lurking periods though - still (actively?) lurking and posting here and there... gave up exactly like in the PYP game ALERT ALERT - went on to vote & kill Robik though and started actually doing stuff so probably town after all Look at how he has opinion on everybody and shares it with everyone. Look at how he tried to see things from people's perspective. Look at how he has a thought and posts it in the thread to share his opinion with everybody. This is town Xatalos. ************** Mafia Xatalos is determined by suing the necessary, asking questions, and not really having original thoughts and stances. Moreover, he doesn't have an overall view of the game. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 06:49 Xatalos wrote: Kushm4sta, by the way, I hope you're planning to play this game seriously. I've witnessed several games that you've partly ruined by lurking or worse. If you're scum, you can get policy lynched. That's fine. High level of certainty/aggressiveness, uncommon on his townplay described above. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 07:43 Xatalos wrote: Well, that game is special in the sense that it started during night and nights were PM-only within given Houses. I definitely put pressure on gumshoe and Grackaroni during the night, I'd say. And I was relatively aggressive during the first day, as well. Probably not as aggressive as here, I agree. Do you mean that passive = townish and aggressive/proactive = scummy? Or what? I can't really see myself playing like this as scum. It'd have to be pretty carefully crafted at least. Too defensive when inquired, lacking deep reads on people. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2013 08:09 Xatalos wrote: These are definitely some good points. It's surely premature to declare Corazon as today's lynch, but it would be a good pick in the current situation. I dislike Artanis's dismissal of Corazon's play as well, but I doubt Artanis and Corazon would be scum together. It would seem risky to make a connection like that. That's WIFOM, though. Commenting others ideas without actually bringing his own to the table. Says something wishy washy without risking himself with his reads ********* Xatalos is playing much more like his scum game than his town game here. This is specific and out of context, but illustrates what I'm saying: + Show Spoiler + On December 18 2014 23:31 Xatalos wrote: Yeah I agree. For both of those the scum motivation is strong and the town motivation is non-existent. I like Templar as scum too, though. But at least he hasn't actively pushed scum agenda. ##Vote GlowingBear This is Xat agreeing with an idea which is not his own, going against a townie, which he had no deep read or strong push. He also doesn't have any list post like I've brought from Guilty Mini Mafia. (Town game: Guilty Mini Mafia Scum game: Titanic II)( Heh, this would be a decent case if not for a couple of errors... 1) The town game you're looking at is my most active game ever. It's a bit unfair to compare that to any of my other games... Especially when there are town games where my activity levels are similar to this game (for example: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=Xatalos my activity there would actually be very low if not for all the fluff posts). There's also one earlier town game where my activity was less than in previously mentioned game, but I can't seem to find it anymore. 2) There's an easy reason for why my reads aren't as "super-transparent" in this game. I posted this already before the game started: On December 08 2014 15:09 Xatalos wrote: Oh, as a precaution: I won't be using the MafiaTools notes for this specific game regardless of my alignment. Just so that there won't be a policy lynch for that reason (lol) Which means that I wouldn't be describing my reads quite as closely no matter my alignment. My greatly specific reads in that game had to do with my MafiaTools notes testing. 3) You can't really base an argument on yourself being town since that's all but clear... 4) As said previously, IRL stuff and post restrictions have limited my "stream of consciousness" style of posts. It's quite necessary to condense my posts just in case something surprising happens and there's a need to post a lot of posts at deadline, for example. | ||
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Yes, it'd be practically impossible to win anymore. Just waiting for confirmation from my remaining buddy. | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:19 Half the Sky wrote: Vivax N1 was also a save??!?!? OMG. Alakaslam was probably who you were going for N4 I take it? Correct. | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:20 sicklucker wrote: So I did kill dandred with that present. Brliantttt No, these were the N1 actions: RB LightningStrike Scrooge-kill Kush Faction kill kita sent by KelsierSC Faction kill Vivax sent by Xatalos Mass Murderer kill Damdred Branch Manager kill Koshi | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:18 GlowingBear wrote: Thanks! I actually didn't believe in my meta case too much. If you have attacked it more firmly maybe I could have backtracked. The mafia tools thing, for example, was kinda difficult to evaluate. Anyway, thanks! Well, it still wasn't totally conclusive, but I'm certain it would have convinced all of marvellosity, Hapahauli and raynpelikoneet | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:23 LightningStrike wrote: Why you picked me to be roleblocked In the end my role didn't matter. You hinted at being a role during D1 I think. | ||
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Hmm... I guess putting more effort into analysing stuff yourself and focusing on actually scummy motivations rather than dumb things that don't make much sense to do as scum (like Tube's crazy posting frenzies). Coaching could help with those things? You were pretty easily swayed by long cases which means you weren't very confident in your own opinions (that's understandable though). That also meant it didn't make much sense for us to kill you. | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:30 GlowingBear wrote: Xat, why I wasn't killed? You were a mislynch target, VT and it would look pretty bad for HF if you died at night. During later nights we mostly hunted for the Medic (Nigella) and people who wouldn't be protected / whose deaths wouldn't really implicate us that much. | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:36 LightningStrike wrote: This will be my 3rd complete game and 1st win too :O So I can't get coached unless someone will vouch for me to get coached in a noobie game I wasn't convenient in my scum reading because I had no chance to really do it in Campus Mafia and was Scum in Student IV Well, generally speaking time spent on learning -> skill. Just by playing / observing you will learn a lot. The most important tool for efficient scumhunting would probably be learning how the various players here play as different roles since it's usually difficult even for the best players to judge a complete question mark (smurf / new player). Although there are some general rules for scumhunting that are often correct... Such as the fact that scum often tend to be more active early and then reduce their activity, and scum often have weird reasoning for their reads (since the reads are mostly made up / they may be "true" for townreads but a townread might be stronger than it *should* be when you talk about it as scum, for example). | ||
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On December 23 2014 08:39 Fecalfeast wrote: I wish I got to blast you Xata that would have been sweet. Did you guys roleblock me last night as well? Yes. | ||
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"People who i love but am suspicious of Xatalos (its just so formulaic and looks so town, he once told me that hes probably mafia when he actually looks town)" | ||
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That's a traditional scum claim picture... forgot where it started. Anyways it's been years, I think. | ||
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On December 23 2014 09:33 LightningStrike wrote: Xata why you guys killed bats? Was it to frame me from my last scum game? He wanted to kill HF and he wasn't likely to be protected. He was also possibly Mason (he said something like "I know everything that LoneMeow thought about"). By the way, who *were* the other Mason and third Ghost? | ||
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On December 23 2014 09:46 rsoultin wrote: >> the game isnt over over yet is it? Behold my ultimate plan of having all the roles claim now and snipe them | ||
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On December 23 2014 12:04 Damdred wrote: 1) Screw everyone who 100% said "DAMDRED DIED FROM A PRESENT". That was the most horrible thing to say and was quite insulting! 2) I really wish people would of looked at my filter more and caught on especially to the ritoky thing and Xata thing especially with his response on day two onward his play didn't change and he was so mafia. 3) HF shouldn't of lived past d3, that vote d2 just showed how horribly mafia he was haha 4) Town sure did turn that around it was a great job 5) Lian was the town MVP I think No way you'd have been killed by scum right? Hahaha Luckily nobody looked at your reads either because of that speculation. | ||
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On December 23 2014 19:50 liancourt wrote: After rereading i dont think town would have won without hts. I sure as hell wasnt going to convince town hf was scum when it was obvious. kudos to hts I agree... I feel like we would have won if HTS didn't make almost perfect night actions. That's why I think she was town MVP. You certainly had good reads but you were more of an annoyance than a threatening presence with the style of your posting | ||
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On December 24 2014 03:30 marvellosity wrote: Palmar already said it but you have to understand that a different style to yours (which is slow, logical, methodical) does not equal mafia. You were throwing suspicion on GB for his very, very, very townie push, and you were also pushing suspicion on sicklucker who was actually just incredibly townie in every facet. And essentially you didn't have mafia on HF for ages (despite the damning voting on d2 but that's something else) because he posted in a way you approved of with his cases. This was quite a strange game in one way because normally I feel a lot of mafia members are too bus-happy, whereas in this game all the mafia had a hard-on for defending other mafia at almost every turn, and in the end it tied them all together. Trfel, liancourt, and sicklucker especially understood what happened d2 with great game-reading sense - essentially all the mafia piled on KsC in an attempt to save Holyflare. Xatalos and KsC cross-defended each other repeatedly, Xatalos+Oats defended HF constantly, HF defended Xatalos, etc etc. Oats' play was just dire, but if mafia had played the d2 lynch better and/or Xata had judiciously bussed HF at the right time, mafia might have stood more of a chance. Hehe. I've often been far too happy to bus so I basically tried to defend my team this time around It worked somewhat well too. Well, in the end it kind of gave me away... But if there weren't some unfortunate blunders on our side or if HTS didn't use her role (almost) perfectly, I think the chances were good for a (near) flawless victory. I wasn't really suspected for my associating with scum until very later either. | ||
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