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On December 21 2014 23:06 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2014 22:58 Xatalos wrote:
Oh, it might even be LYLO right now? Then I think we definitely shouldn't lynch for "information" or something equally stupid. Let's just lynch the player with the highest chance of flipping scum. Probably Templar... But luckily there's still quite a bit of time left to make that decision. We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian. What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at.
Yeah I guess it might not be LYLO yet (unless there's 4 scum left?).
Hm. I think that FF was most likely RB'd if he's town (the only clear "role" to RB after all) and it's possible that he was also RB'd as scum, although it's less likely. Either way I don't see how this makes me scum?
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On December 22 2014 00:17 Half the Sky wrote:
Rasputin, do you think Trfel may have worded it that way because he was Santa and didn't want to give himself away? Of course, he got NKed, but I digress. I mean, a lot of people had FF scumread through the end of D2 and if I recall correctly it was Holyflare who called him out for the read for that reason.
Of course that's possible. But that's not really the question, is it? The question is, why are we all assuming that FF is town? Not only is it possible that he's the godfather even if he was green-checked, but Trfel didn't come out firmly in his favor.
I was null-reading FF for the most part, too. And that looks more like a null-leaning town but he's not sure post than anything else.
I'm going to take a closer look at FF today, because I think he's gotten a free ride that he probably didn't deserve. I'm also not for lynching Xata or HTS today, unless GB comes out with that amazing case on Xata that he promised me and it's very compelling.
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On December 21 2014 23:27 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2014 07:58 Trfel wrote:Ok, a few thoughts at the end of the night. I'm not going to go super deep into this, since the nightkills do provide information that can be useful, but here's my thinking. I'm also not going to call someone super scummy or clean right before a bunch of new information comes out, for obvious reasons. VivaxVivax seems... strange. I'm not really sure what to make of it. The first thing to note is, he has been making a lot of reads. From looking at his filter, here's what I found. + Show Spoiler [Vivax's Reads] +suspicious of 27ninjabunnies
suspicious of ritoky
suspicious of Tubesock
suspicious of KelsierSC
suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of rsoultin
no longer suspicious of Xatalos
suspicious of batsnacks
less suspicious of batsnacks
suspicious of Fecalfeast
suspicious of Trfel
suspicious of GlowingBear
suspicious of The_Templar
suspicious of Oatsmaster
suspicious of Holyflare
suspicious of Xatalos I think that this is just a playstyle, and not a sign of being mafia. It's not good or bad. Also, his reads are all well-explained and what he is doing makes sense to me. Really, I don't see any signs of him being scum here. Except, his play leading up to the day 2 lynch deadline has felt a bit off to me. On page 120, GlowingBear posts Part 2 of his case on Holyflare. The full case summary is posted on page 121. On page 122, I post a case on KelsierSC. Vivax posts a few pages after this, but doesn't respond to either case. Then he mentions the Holyflare case on page 125 and says he is tempted to go for it, and then votes for Holyflare on page 126. No mention of the KelsierSC case at all, despite being suspicious of him earlier in the game. On page 129, I post a response to GlowingBear's case, hoping for a response from one of the GlowingBear voters. Vivax posts like this: On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF On December 14 2014 07:41 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2014 07:35 Trfel wrote:On December 14 2014 07:34 Vivax wrote:
Lynch HF I would love to. Please tell me why, other than linking GlowingBear's post. Cause I read his post and it convinced me, nothing else really. No reference at all to the KelsierSC case, no original reasons for lynching Holyflare, no response to the criticism I presented of the Holyflare case, no sign of the critical thinking and analytical Vivax that I saw throughout the rest of the game. The only town explanation I can come up with for Vivax is that he was reading sporadically and missed my repeated questions on GlowingBear's case, and really was that convinced by GlowingBear's case that he didn't mention the KelsierSC case in an attempt to gather support for lynching Holyflare instead. I'm very hesitant to call Vivax mafia for this. It's the only suspicious thing I see in his filter, while the rest of his play seems to be searching for mafia and being constructive. In the end I leave him at null/town, but he is definitely on my watch list. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ batsnacksIt's sort of the same thing for batsnacks. The fact that I tried to get batsnacks lynched last game for not providing scumreads and him ending up being town is still heavily in the back of my mind. So I'm not going to try and get a read on him, but here's some thoughts. Batsnacks makes an early read on Half the Sky, and his reasons for this read have been heavily criticized. I still think this read makes him seem a bit towny, but I could be wrong. His push on LightningStrike is good, too. Batsnacks clearly noticed that I posted a case on KelsierSC, and he put KelsierSC into his "would lynch" list. His vote remained on Holyflare, and he seemed desperate to get people to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare. He never provided comments on the KelsierSC case, either. On December 14 2014 07:42 batsnacks wrote:On December 14 2014 07:41 Trfel wrote:
Switching to Holyflare because of a gut call. It's hard to explain. If someone really wants me to, I can try though. ^ ppl voting KSC ______________________________________________________________________________________________ GlowingBearI don't have a big read on GlowingBear yet. I am just including him here because he pushed on Holyflare over KelsierSC, and it would seem incomplete if I mentioned Vivax and batsnacks without mentioning GlowingBear. The main reason I find GlowingBear's push on Holyflare instead of KelsierSC less suspicious than the two previous cases is that GlowingBear acknowledged the KelsierSC case and said that he was fine with a KelsierSC lynch. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ FecalfeastI've been defending Fecalfeast a bit throughout day 2. I suppose that was the first controversial read I made all game, since I only started seriously being suspicious of KelsierSC midway through day 2. Anyway, I maintain that Fecalfeast's play seems to be poor town instead of inactive mafia. He should be on a relatively short leash, though.______________________________________________________________________________________________ sickluckerI said I wouldn't make meta reads. Well, here's a meta read. The main reason is because I tend to have trouble understanding sicklucker's arguments, so I usually somewhat ignore him. Usually, sicklucker is constantly posting and providing tons of different thoughts. Last game, he said that he likes to make fast reads and he was making reads all over the place. One example of that is when I posted a long post on batsnacks, sicklucker responded “I haven't read your post yet, but you are so town for writing that up”. This game, he has definitely done weird things and made a lot of posts, but they are all related to setup, presents, and roles. Very few reads. I don't think it makes sicklucker scum, but I don't see him as a sure town like some other people do. ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Then there's the arguments between Vivax and Xatalos, and GlowingBear and Holyflare. I haven't put enough time into the recent development of those cases, so I don't feel that I have a right to offer an opinion of those cases at the moment. I hope to look heavily into those tomorrow. In case I die, good luck and happy scumhunting! ... That really does not look like a green check. I mean, that really, really looks like a poor assumption we all made as a thread. Why would he say anything about keeping FF on a short leash if he thought he was town?
Hm. My first thought was he'd word it that way to confuse the scum bluehunters, but on the other hand, he posted that at the *end of the night* when it was too late to change anything. So it's possible that you're correct.......
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On December 22 2014 00:18 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2014 23:06 rsoultin wrote:On December 21 2014 22:58 Xatalos wrote:
Oh, it might even be LYLO right now? Then I think we definitely shouldn't lynch for "information" or something equally stupid. Let's just lynch the player with the highest chance of flipping scum. Probably Templar... But luckily there's still quite a bit of time left to make that decision. We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian. What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at. Yeah I guess it might not be LYLO yet (unless there's 4 scum left?). Hm. I think that FF was most likely RB'd if he's town (the only clear "role" to RB after all) and it's possible that he was also RB'd as scum, although it's less likely. Either way I don't see how this makes me scum?
We had one NK last night and FF claimed to try to shoot you. My two versions were the simplest ones, nigella attempting to "block/save" you would negate his shot and yours if you were scum. A roleblocker on a scum FF would also explain the night actions without assuming multiple role interactions. There are of course other possibilities involving multiple role interactions, but statistically it's more unlikely the more roles you assume were involved in night actions.
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Although that is just a soft confirm on FF and he could be mafia, he shouldn't be the lynch today. Too null for us to risk lynching him. We should have lynched him before if that's the problem.
There is the votecount on day2 where mafia did seen to want a lynch on FF.
Rasputin, you asked for our reads but I see no follow up on them. What do you make of it?
Also, have in mind that a meta case is never an awesome case. Because it's meta. I'll make it anyway, later, cause I'm going to the beach with a date 
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On December 21 2014 23:37 Half the Sky wrote:
Xatalos, Ockham's razor. There were what, at least six people scumreading you after N4? I don't see a reason to doubt FF, but I've been townreading him since end of D2. It is possible but statistically unlikely he is the godfather.
But others have brought points against you too. And leaving out GB's case, Vivax had flipped town, so now we know the stuff he said would tend to be more reliable.
Town != correct. Vivax even scumread you last night so it's hard to imagine you're sheeping his opinions... And he was a role so it's not a wonder to get killed. And what case from GB? I don't think he made his case yet.
Even without assuming that FF is GF or that we misunderstood Trfel, there are several ways that both me and FF could be town (for example: FF got roleblocked or I was attacked or scum attacked a Veteran).
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I think the night actions for today has so much possibilities that it will be too unreliable to go after. It's not like day1.
Anyway, the most weird thing was that Vivax wasn't protected and he was, I believe, the top town.
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On December 21 2014 23:39 GlowingBear wrote:
This is the laziest town ever, including me. I didn't see anybody trying to filter dive the scums to find out associations.
Xat, inactivity is not really the problem. The problem is that I can't see you dropping your thoughts clearly in the thread or actually trying to solve the game like I'm used to see you doing. I remember perfectly me getting all crazy in you for you saying "If he isn't town, he is scum", lol. This was after a long description of your thought process. I don't see any of these things in your filter. Actually, I see more rough, objective reads, without too many stream of thoughts, which, in my experience, isn't your usual play.
@Rsoultin:
Oats: probably scum due to inactivity. If town is degladiating themselves, scum will usually sit back and let town die. This image fits oats behaviour. This is how scum usually plays big games. More than this, oats tends to be more contributive, actually calling people scum and going for it. I usually see oats doing this as town: "you're stupid, you're wrong, because of this." In this game, he is just saying "you're stupid, you're wrong". He says everything me and Vivax speak of is convoluted, but then agrees with Vivax list. I have yet to understand he logic behind this.
I've explained Xat on the first paragraph.
Slam: I don't know man. I saw things that makes me believe slam is town. But I think slam would be more involved in the game when it's LYLO, like he was in Avogadro Mafia. The worst part now is that he is clearly reading the thread, as you ask him for reads and he answers, but doesn't provide reasoning. This is a sign that slam may be mafia. So I'm going from town to null on him.
Well, my playstyle fluctuates too. A heavy factor in this game is that I can't just spam the thread when I have a post limit.
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There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...
But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.
@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all.
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On December 22 2014 00:29 Xatalos wrote:
And what case from GB? I don't think he made his case yet.
Maybe not formal case, but this is the post I was referring to, but I had said before this anyway.
On December 21 2014 09:47 GlowingBear wrote:
Aaaaaaand I'm drunk.
Alright, listen.
We've discuss a lot about HF and we couldn't get him lynched easily. We almost said everything that has to be said about him. I don't think we should waste more breath about him TODAY. We have to catch the other scum.
By the way, is there someone firmly believing that HF is town? This is important so please answer me.
Now, I believe we should follow Vivax reads because (1) I agreed with him and (2) we now know he is confirmed town.
Considering this, I believe we should lynch Xatalos
Why Xatalos instead of oats? Because he wasn't firmly mafia read by Vivax, because he was town read by obi, and because HF, one possible scum, also list him as mafia. I'm aware HF also lists Xatalos, but there are these two that didn't cite/townreads oats. I don't want to risk the game on him yet.
I don't believe nigella would protect FF because he could be godfather and I don't believe nigella would block Xatalos because he wasn't actually the top scumread. But I really think nigella would try to roleblock a possible mafia because top town was Vivax at that moment.
I also want you to remember that ff is only SOFT CONFIRMED, because Santa didn't explicitly said he had a green check.
Nigella, don't out anymore. You'll be important night5, specially if we lynch scum and if you roleblock one mafia.
Like, consider this: if there is only 3 scum left and we lynch one now, you'll try to roleblock a possible mafia and if only one kp goes through the night, you have a confirmed mafia.
So, lynch Xatalos.
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On December 22 2014 00:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2014 23:39 GlowingBear wrote:
This is the laziest town ever, including me. I didn't see anybody trying to filter dive the scums to find out associations.
Xat, inactivity is not really the problem. The problem is that I can't see you dropping your thoughts clearly in the thread or actually trying to solve the game like I'm used to see you doing. I remember perfectly me getting all crazy in you for you saying "If he isn't town, he is scum", lol. This was after a long description of your thought process. I don't see any of these things in your filter. Actually, I see more rough, objective reads, without too many stream of thoughts, which, in my experience, isn't your usual play.
@Rsoultin:
Oats: probably scum due to inactivity. If town is degladiating themselves, scum will usually sit back and let town die. This image fits oats behaviour. This is how scum usually plays big games. More than this, oats tends to be more contributive, actually calling people scum and going for it. I usually see oats doing this as town: "you're stupid, you're wrong, because of this." In this game, he is just saying "you're stupid, you're wrong". He says everything me and Vivax speak of is convoluted, but then agrees with Vivax list. I have yet to understand he logic behind this.
I've explained Xat on the first paragraph.
Slam: I don't know man. I saw things that makes me believe slam is town. But I think slam would be more involved in the game when it's LYLO, like he was in Avogadro Mafia. The worst part now is that he is clearly reading the thread, as you ask him for reads and he answers, but doesn't provide reasoning. This is a sign that slam may be mafia. So I'm going from town to null on him. Well, my playstyle fluctuates too. A heavy factor in this game is that I can't just spam the thread when I have a post limit.
Again, I'm not talking about level of activity. I'm talking about the way you're writing your posts or the way you're approaching the game, which is different from the way I'm used to see you doing.
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On December 22 2014 00:23 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 00:18 Xatalos wrote:On December 21 2014 23:06 rsoultin wrote:On December 21 2014 22:58 Xatalos wrote:
Oh, it might even be LYLO right now? Then I think we definitely shouldn't lynch for "information" or something equally stupid. Let's just lynch the player with the highest chance of flipping scum. Probably Templar... But luckily there's still quite a bit of time left to make that decision. We've got 12 players still. If it's LYLO that's a shit ton of scum in the wings. Though I will say it doesn't look like anyone's lynching for "information" but lian. What do you think of FF? I'm a fan of the most simple explanation theory, which means either you were protected/RBd and are actually scum...or he is scum and was RBd last night, and is trying to throw the blame on someone else. If he's town, there is no reason for him to lie about who he took a shot at. Yeah I guess it might not be LYLO yet (unless there's 4 scum left?). Hm. I think that FF was most likely RB'd if he's town (the only clear "role" to RB after all) and it's possible that he was also RB'd as scum, although it's less likely. Either way I don't see how this makes me scum? We had one NK last night and FF claimed to try to shoot you. My two versions were the simplest ones, nigella attempting to "block/save" you would negate his shot and yours if you were scum. A roleblocker on a scum FF would also explain the night actions without assuming multiple role interactions. There are of course other possibilities involving multiple role interactions, but statistically it's more unlikely the more roles you assume were involved in night actions.
Well, I think FF being RB'd is the most likely scenario. I guess it's more obvious to me since it's quite a bit more likely than me being saved, I'd think :D
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On December 22 2014 00:33 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 00:31 Xatalos wrote:On December 21 2014 23:39 GlowingBear wrote:
This is the laziest town ever, including me. I didn't see anybody trying to filter dive the scums to find out associations.
Xat, inactivity is not really the problem. The problem is that I can't see you dropping your thoughts clearly in the thread or actually trying to solve the game like I'm used to see you doing. I remember perfectly me getting all crazy in you for you saying "If he isn't town, he is scum", lol. This was after a long description of your thought process. I don't see any of these things in your filter. Actually, I see more rough, objective reads, without too many stream of thoughts, which, in my experience, isn't your usual play.
@Rsoultin:
Oats: probably scum due to inactivity. If town is degladiating themselves, scum will usually sit back and let town die. This image fits oats behaviour. This is how scum usually plays big games. More than this, oats tends to be more contributive, actually calling people scum and going for it. I usually see oats doing this as town: "you're stupid, you're wrong, because of this." In this game, he is just saying "you're stupid, you're wrong". He says everything me and Vivax speak of is convoluted, but then agrees with Vivax list. I have yet to understand he logic behind this.
I've explained Xat on the first paragraph.
Slam: I don't know man. I saw things that makes me believe slam is town. But I think slam would be more involved in the game when it's LYLO, like he was in Avogadro Mafia. The worst part now is that he is clearly reading the thread, as you ask him for reads and he answers, but doesn't provide reasoning. This is a sign that slam may be mafia. So I'm going from town to null on him. Well, my playstyle fluctuates too. A heavy factor in this game is that I can't just spam the thread when I have a post limit. Again, I'm not talking about level of activity. I'm talking about the way you're writing your posts or the way you're approaching the game, which is different from the way I'm used to see you doing.
If you mean I'm more collected/focused, that's probably true. The post limits are the biggest reason for that I'd say.
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And I think, personally, that since Nigella's power acts as a roleblocker...and there was no way to know that FF had a shot to take...that it's insignificant what Nigella thought of you. Can choose to try to save or to try to roleblock.
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On December 22 2014 00:30 GlowingBear wrote:
I think the night actions for today has so much possibilities that it will be too unreliable to go after. It's not like day1.
Anyway, the most weird thing was that Vivax wasn't protected and he was, I believe, the top town.
Meh me an him talked for like 3 hours last night and probably solved the game. Which is why I could be a save. The medic probably is not expecting him to go after confirmed vt's either. It just means were right so mafia gave up role hunting and came after us.
I wouldnt have saved vivax either last night I woulda went for my strongest towns with unconfimed roles like slam,lian,rust. Any of them could have been the save. Mafia has been role hunting every night so it makes sense to try to save them as well.
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On December 22 2014 00:33 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 00:29 Xatalos wrote:
And what case from GB? I don't think he made his case yet. Maybe not formal case, but this is the post I was referring to, but I had said before this anyway. Show nested quote +On December 21 2014 09:47 GlowingBear wrote:
Aaaaaaand I'm drunk.
Alright, listen.
We've discuss a lot about HF and we couldn't get him lynched easily. We almost said everything that has to be said about him. I don't think we should waste more breath about him TODAY. We have to catch the other scum.
By the way, is there someone firmly believing that HF is town? This is important so please answer me.
Now, I believe we should follow Vivax reads because (1) I agreed with him and (2) we now know he is confirmed town.
Considering this, I believe we should lynch Xatalos
Why Xatalos instead of oats? Because he wasn't firmly mafia read by Vivax, because he was town read by obi, and because HF, one possible scum, also list him as mafia. I'm aware HF also lists Xatalos, but there are these two that didn't cite/townreads oats. I don't want to risk the game on him yet.
I don't believe nigella would protect FF because he could be godfather and I don't believe nigella would block Xatalos because he wasn't actually the top scumread. But I really think nigella would try to roleblock a possible mafia because top town was Vivax at that moment.
I also want you to remember that ff is only SOFT CONFIRMED, because Santa didn't explicitly said he had a green check.
Nigella, don't out anymore. You'll be important night5, specially if we lynch scum and if you roleblock one mafia.
Like, consider this: if there is only 3 scum left and we lynch one now, you'll try to roleblock a possible mafia and if only one kp goes through the night, you have a confirmed mafia.
So, lynch Xatalos.
So you're willing to throw away everything else for some highly speculative night action analysis?
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On December 22 2014 00:32 rsoultin wrote:
There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...
But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.
@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all.
Well for one he wasint one of five idiots who voted out an obvious town yesterday????. Like we dont worry about ff unless we think the last mafia is that specific role
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On December 22 2014 00:40 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 00:32 rsoultin wrote:
There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...
But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.
@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all. Well for one he wasint one of five idiots who voted out an obvious town yesterday????. Like we dont worry about ff unless we think the last mafia is that specific role
Check again, SL. He enabled the shenanigans. They weren't happening without him and Templar. He is by no means above scrutiny.
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On December 22 2014 00:40 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2014 00:32 rsoultin wrote:
There's also the consideration that if scum is roleblocking FF, assuming they have a roleblocker which we don't know for sure (thank you for bringing up the vet HTS), then since FF was being pretty much universally townread he'd be a good KS I would think. So the last "simple" scenario is nigella RBing/saving him...
But here he is pre-claiming a present again, and claiming the KS again, and scum already knows that no one will counterclaim the KS or they would have when ritoky first claimed. So it's really quite possible for FF to be scum here, and that's why I'm asking if anyone's townreading him for anything but trfel's statement right before he died.
@Xata...I'm not saying it's not possible that you can't both be town. I am saying that I favor simple explanations over complex ones. Regardless, I think it would be foolish not to look into FF at all. Well for one he wasint one of five idiots who voted out an obvious town yesterday????. Like we dont worry about ff unless we think the last mafia is that specific role
Haha actually he started the wagon? :D
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The relevant quote, SL:
On December 20 2014 07:20 Fecalfeast wrote:
Why don't we all just shenannigan onto tubesock?
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EPT
