TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 238

On December 11 2014 10:17 Trfel wrote:

I will add batsnacks and Fecalfeast to my list of tentative townreads.

Need to head out now, but the main people I plan on investigating are Koshi, Damdred, Xatalos, LightningStrike, Tubesock, and KelsierSC.

On December 11 2014 11:09 Trfel wrote:
Sure.

Reading his filter, he seemed really scummy at first, especially this post:

Since then, he seems to have provided some fine analysis. I don't really agree with his conclusions, but he seems to be trying to find the mafia. Mostly looking at his list post here, as well as his analysis of The_Templar's post. I suppose that the post on The_Templar is extremely picky with no real conclusion, but I can see where he is coming from. He hasn't been doing an amazing job of scumreading, but for now it seems to be good enough that he seems to lean slightly towards town.

If you don't mind, can you point me to the reasons why other people think he is scum?

On December 12 2014 08:40 Holyflare wrote:
I'm incredibly disappointed with the vigi if we do because he shot absolutely nobody that was a good shot. Not one of ff, ritoky etc died even though like 4 vets called them mafia -.-

Not sure what i think of the present opening tbh. It would have been great to give them to all the scummy people and forced them to open them/use them to our will :/

2 biggest proponents of a ff lynch also died which is cool, especially as lm was in the shadows while doing it so didn't look like a high priority kill

On December 12 2014 09:02 ritoky wrote:




1) I attacked LS because he made pure meta reads and they were crap. This post lacks the context of that being in the very first hours of the game. On day 1 I am a pretty hard tunneler on people who do things I think are strange or make excessively bad reads. I felt his reads were dumpster level at the time so I went on them. He came back and started answering people's questions in a town way. Someone asked me how it was town and I told them the same thing I will tell you, he responded directly and only giving what he was asked. That is very townie to me, especially for a new player. Normally mafia try to change the topic or they add too many qualifiers or they give way more than was asked. He didn't, so I started reading him town.

2) First I need to clean this up, since the start of the game up until the night phase I had only called two people mafia: LS and ff. Yet the moment I get a town read, come out of the tunnel on LS and switch to ff; people call me bloodthirsty. I am just moving to my next scum read and pressuring. Kita says that my initial read doesn't matter to him, well I would say that he doesn't do a good job of finding scum on D1 then. I think that when someone believes a read enough to sheep it word for word the very lowest level of trust they should have in that person is leaning town. He had a null read on me after basically quoting my read 5 posts earlier, and then tried to dumb tell it away by saying he didn't read my post. Not town at all.

3) I admittedly have a shit read on bunnies, and I would agree with him that I was mostly outside of that conversation. I did however say: "There's a nearly 0 amount of people defending bunnies, so she is probably town" about 12 hrs into the day. And I did clarify that the stuff that....I don't remember who, can go look...was pushing about her vote on me and it having no real reason was a crap part of the case since it was primarily predicated on our friendship/relationship in mafia.

4) I still want to lynch ff.

What about my present? Do you want me to claim which one I opened? If so, why?

On December 12 2014 09:11 Trfel wrote:
I still don't see very much reason to lynch Fecalfeast. Yes, his play hasn't been amazing yet, and I disagree with many of his reads, but I can still see where he is coming from. I would rather give him some more time before looking back at that lynch.

On December 12 2014 09:18 Trfel wrote:

Yes, I have. I have also filter read his posts multiple times.

If you would like, I can elaborate, but unfortunately I will be really busy for a bit. In summary, his play is mostly fluff, but that doesn't incriminate someone (see Alakaslam, batsnacks, for example). And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those are his honest opinions after searching for scum.

On December 13 2014 13:28 Trfel wrote:

Sorry, that sentence should have read "And in the remaining posts, while I disagree, I see little reason to believe that those aren't his honest opinions after searching for scum.

I'll take another look at Fecalfeast, and then move on to some other players.

On December 13 2014 16:17 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few comments to the people who feel I am a good lynch (which to be honest, is probably everyone, or at least ought to be).

First, other than me being a lurker, the only argument is a meta read. Which is based off of a whole one game. A student mafia game, with 13-14 people, where I was shot on Night 1. Meaning, I played for 72 hours in an "easy" game and only had to read ~30 pages the entire time. Then, I jumped into a game with ~26 players, including several veterans and skilled players. And it's already over 100 posts. I'm simply not able to play at the same level I was last game, and yes, that's not ideal.

In addition, one thing that my last game taught me is that meta reads have limited use. So at the moment, I don't intend to make any meta reads. That doesn't mean I'm not trying, it just means that I decided that spending hours pouring over previous games for minimal value isn't a good use of time.

Again, I realize 100% that I appear to be a very good lynch. But that is just for me being a policy lynch, the meta argument really lacks backing. My request is that people spend the next while looking into other people to lynch, as with this much time in the day I don't believe you should start looking at a policy lynch already.

Anyway, I'll be looking at Fecalfeast's filter and the cases made against him again now. If anyone has any (specific) questions they would like me to answer, I should be up for a short while. But I will ignore general questions like "who is scum", as I'll answer that when I can.

On December 13 2014 16:38 Trfel wrote:
First, I don't really know what night kill analysis is or how to perform it. If someone could please explain this or link me a good guide to read, that would be great, as my current understanding is that night kills are WIFOM and should be ignored. Ironically, this came from an Oatsmaster post in the Student Mafia IV game, so this isn't a new view that he has presented.

Excluding that, I still am not that happy with a Fecalfeast lynch. Here is why.

Fecalfeast hasn't presented any real reasons to read him as town. I'm not happy with him, and he's obviously playing badly (he's admitted several times that he hasn't been keeping up with the thread). That doesn't make him mafia, though, it just makes him lazy.

I've read the cases on him, or at least all of the cases I could easily find. They generally seem weak, with the main argument being that he is doing a poor job of finding scum. While I disagree with many of the reads he presents in his list post, I get the impression that he is thinking, and I can see how someone would reach those conclusions.

Basically, there doesn't seem to be much evidence against Fecalfeast, besides a simple policy lynch. And at this point, I really hope we can come up with something better than a policy lynch. One example is Tubesock, who feels better than a policy lynch to me due to some of the weird posting and the potential "scumslip". I still hope that there is a better target, though.

Looking at Oatsmaster and Vivax's case on him next.

On December 14 2014 06:06 Trfel wrote:
Ok, I'm pretty suspicious of KelsierSC.

The first real thing he does in the game are these posts, which I'm sure everyone is familiar with:




This feels really weak to me, especially now that KelsierSC linked the game that he refers to. I don't understand how he can possibly find Fecalfeast the slightest bit scummy for this. It feels like he is really forcing this read from nothing, while potentially identifying a stupid Scrooge (which happened...) and appearing towny.

Same with his early townread on Holyflare. Even Holyflare says that it is weak, and I agree. We've already established that Holyflare is really good at playing Mafia, and that makes it really hard to identify him. So no, a meta case that early into the game isn't very good. This post again lacks substance, and feels like he is making a read for the purpose of making a read.

This post seems to take even more force out of his meta case on Fecalfeast. Is it really a good argument, if he isn't sure himself what Fecalfeast's day 1 play is like?

KelsierSC and I seem to be the only two people who read batsnacks as town for the post he made on Half the Sky. (Since then, batsnacks' play has made me much more suspicious, but that isn't the point of this post). The weird thing is, KelsierSC read batsnacks as town because he agreed with batsnacks' post. The validity of batsnacks' post has since been shown to be very questionable, but KelsierSC hasn't changed his stance.

KelsierSC then spends several posts focusing on Alakaslam. Here is his explanation.
Later, he goes back on this and says that this didn't end up working out. More words, less analysis.

His scum list seems to be changing without that much explanation. He says that he would happily vote 27nb, but doesn't include her in his lynch list. And his inclusion of Vivax in the lynch list for bad reads seems strange. Bad reads don't necessarily make someone scum, it is the intent behind them. And these reads are seeming forced.

Later, he comes back with a new post, and Vivax isn't mentioned in his scum reads at all.

The point about his changing stance on ritoky is also interesting. He puts ritoky into his town circle, then adds him to his lynch list, saying he has done absolutely nothing. His explanation of this is that he forgot he had him in his town circle. Shouldn't his reads be the same every time, even if he forgot all of his previous reads? If he was trying hard to make real reads, they would. If his read changed due to new information, that would be good, but the only new information he provided is that a few people scumread him. "I forgot" and "others are scumreading him" are not good reasons to change a read like that, he should at least investigate the case himself.

In conclusion, I would be happy to lynch KelsierSC. Moreso than Fecalfeast, anyway. Obviously it's not certain, but it seems better than anything else.

Now I will take a look at GlowingBear's complete case on Holyflare.

On December 14 2014 06:21 Trfel wrote:

Let's assume for a moment that Fecalfeast is mafia. He's playing terribly in that respect too. He's got a huge wagon on him, and he just says he doesn't want to play and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. That's true no matter his alignment.

He obviously is too busy to play this game. That doesn't make him town or mafia, that makes him inactive.

There are better lynches.

On December 15 2014 07:58 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few thoughts at the end of the night. I'm not going to go super deep into this, since the nightkills do provide information that can be useful, but here's my thinking. I'm also not going to call someone super scummy or clean right before a bunch of new information comes out, for obvious reasons.

Vivax

Vivax seems... strange. I'm not really sure what to make of it.

The first thing to note is, he has been making a lot of reads. From looking at his filter, here's what I found.
+ Show Spoiler [Vivax's Reads] +
I think that this is just a playstyle, and not a sign of being mafia. It's not good or bad. Also, his reads are all well-explained and what he is doing makes sense to me. Really, I don't see any signs of him being scum here. Except, his play leading up to the day 2 lynch deadline has felt a bit off to me.

On page 120, GlowingBear posts Part 2 of his case on Holyflare. The full case summary is posted on page 121. On page 122, I post a case on KelsierSC. Vivax posts a few pages after this, but doesn't respond to either case. Then he mentions the Holyflare case on page 125 and says he is tempted to go for it, and then votes for Holyflare on page 126. No mention of the KelsierSC case at all, despite being suspicious of him earlier in the game. On page 129, I post a response to GlowingBear's case, hoping for a response from one of the GlowingBear voters. Vivax posts like this:


No reference at all to the KelsierSC case, no original reasons for lynching Holyflare, no response to the criticism I presented of the Holyflare case, no sign of the critical thinking and analytical Vivax that I saw throughout the rest of the game. The only town explanation I can come up with for Vivax is that he was reading sporadically and missed my repeated questions on GlowingBear's case, and really was that convinced by GlowingBear's case that he didn't mention the KelsierSC case in an attempt to gather support for lynching Holyflare instead.

I'm very hesitant to call Vivax mafia for this. It's the only suspicious thing I see in his filter, while the rest of his play seems to be searching for mafia and being constructive. In the end I leave him at null/town, but he is definitely on my watch list.
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batsnacks

It's sort of the same thing for batsnacks.

The fact that I tried to get batsnacks lynched last game for not providing scumreads and him ending up being town is still heavily in the back of my mind. So I'm not going to try and get a read on him, but here's some thoughts.

Batsnacks makes an early read on Half the Sky, and his reasons for this read have been heavily criticized. I still think this read makes him seem a bit towny, but I could be wrong. His push on LightningStrike is good, too.

Batsnacks clearly noticed that I posted a case on KelsierSC, and he put KelsierSC into his "would lynch" list. His vote remained on Holyflare, and he seemed desperate to get people to switch from KelsierSC to Holyflare. He never provided comments on the KelsierSC case, either.

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GlowingBear

I don't have a big read on GlowingBear yet. I am just including him here because he pushed on Holyflare over KelsierSC, and it would seem incomplete if I mentioned Vivax and batsnacks without mentioning GlowingBear.

The main reason I find GlowingBear's push on Holyflare instead of KelsierSC less suspicious than the two previous cases is that GlowingBear acknowledged the KelsierSC case and said that he was fine with a KelsierSC lynch.
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Fecalfeast

I've been defending Fecalfeast a bit throughout day 2. I suppose that was the first controversial read I made all game, since I only started seriously being suspicious of KelsierSC midway through day 2. Anyway, I maintain that Fecalfeast's play seems to be poor town instead of inactive mafia. He should be on a relatively short leash, though.
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sicklucker

I said I wouldn't make meta reads. Well, here's a meta read. The main reason is because I tend to have trouble understanding sicklucker's arguments, so I usually somewhat ignore him.

Usually, sicklucker is constantly posting and providing tons of different thoughts. Last game, he said that he likes to make fast reads and he was making reads all over the place. One example of that is when I posted a long post on batsnacks, sicklucker responded “I haven't read your post yet, but you are so town for writing that up”. This game, he has definitely done weird things and made a lot of posts, but they are all related to setup, presents, and roles. Very few reads. I don't think it makes sicklucker scum, but I don't see him as a sure town like some other people do.
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Then there's the arguments between Vivax and Xatalos, and GlowingBear and Holyflare. I haven't put enough time into the recent development of those cases, so I don't feel that I have a right to offer an opinion of those cases at the moment. I hope to look heavily into those tomorrow. In case I die, good luck and happy scumhunting!