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On October 14 2014 01:16 jcarlsoniv wrote:ebwop Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 01:15 jcarlsoniv wrote:On October 14 2014 01:00 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 14 2014 00:48 jcarlsoniv wrote:
But here's the thing wave. You took a lead in town position just because your first post was a "follow me to victory" post. You've been very aggressive yes, but you've also been pretty defensive in the face of any criticism. You were incredibly indecisive for the rest of the day, keeping your vote unplaced for longer time than I'd expect after you criticized me early game for not placing my vote. On top of that, you wanted to enact some last minute "shenannies". A scum wave would absolutely know how to manipulate a newbie town, so excuse the town for not trusting your "judgement" thus far. And does any of the above make me scum, good sir? Time to school you as well, I think. Can you show how it's more likely that a scum Wave decided not to vote midday because he didn't want to get caught voting in a bad place rather than me having difficulty deciding? Can you show how being indecisive emulates a scum mindset? Can you show me how it's more likely that I was trying to enact last minute shenannies to somehow further scum ends rather than simply trying to get you guys off a likely town member? I'm not saying it makes you scum. I'm saying that you shouldn't be surprised that everyone isn't just blindly following you. But maybe I'm putting too much stock in how I think a scum wave would know how to play. Also I'd like you to show me where I criticized you for not voting....cause I can't seem to find it. Maybe you can point it out to me though. You're right, I misremembered the below post. In my head I remembered you pushing harder to get me to vote. My mistake. + Show Spoiler +On October 11 2014 10:08 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2014 10:00 jcarlsoniv wrote:
sic 'em wave
I'm curious who's around tonight What, you're going to let me do all the work? I doubt we'll be lynching scum if I'm the only one voting...care to join me, frand? Oh and Jeffy's recent question reminds me of a setup detail I feel like I should mention even though it's completely unrelated to anything. Actually now that I think about it I think I was going to include it in my intro post as a reason for people to protect the hell out of me tonight but oh well. + Show Spoiler +
In almost every 14-player game I have been a part of on this site, especially those with the possibility of 3P, there were 2 non-town KP on the first night. Since there is no SK this likely means scum will have a vig, 2KP/night (unlikely but possible), or there will be some sort of poisoner. I have been scum in such scenarios and I have actively misled the town before by only allowing them to consider the setup options that were wrong. Just something to consider when N1 happens.
Of course it is also entirely possible I am completely wrong about the above :D
Personally it looks to me like you're trying to throw tired old arguments at me---mafia buzzwords if you will----without thinking about them at all and assuming people will see 'Oh Wave was hypocritical about voting must be scum' and 'wave is being defensive/throwing his weight around' (I want to see how many times that phrase has come up now and who started using it actually) and look badly upon me.
This is classically known as 'shit-flinging' and it serves two scum purposes: starts fights and serves to create discord and messes with town atmosphere (with the bonus of possibly demoralizing your target---and I'm ashamed to admit it's kind of worked because of the town members who have fallen under its spell), and it possibly sets up said player for a mislynch if people are not willing to look more deeply into the accusations.
What is possible town motivation for 'shit-flinging?' Honestly, can;t think of any. A good town player would sit back and actually consider my actions from both perspectives rather than tossing open-ended suspicion at me, which is what you've been doing all game.
I mean, you can call it shit-flinging if you want, but I'm not the only one who's been suspicious of your play thus far, obviously.
Ok you're not saying it makes me scum. (refusing to take a stance) You're not the only one who thinks I'm suspicious. (shifting blame/deflecting)
What ARE you saying then?
Is there a reason you don't want to commit to a read on me, soniv? Right now. If I'm scum you should come out and fucking say it. If I'm town, do the same. Surely you must think I'm leaning to one side or the other.
Req, I can hold two discussions at once. We don't have to discuss this.
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On October 14 2014 01:20 Requizen wrote:To that end I'm going to go through filters and post my thoughts given the results of last night. I will skim through somewhat quickly, as the thread is fairly large, so link me to anything I may miss about a person. They will come as the day progresses. At the moment, my two biggest Scum reads are still Wave and LordyT. Partially left over from last night, partially because my reasoning still feels good to me. Wave because what I posted above, LordT for the reasons I discussed yesterday. Additionally: -his early "role call" was highly suspicious -His list of players is highly iffy. Knowing that MoonBear was VT and (myself) knowing I am not scum, he noted us as scummy. Knowing that he and Wave are on my watchlist, he noted them as townish. And he calls Alzadar scum for "not paying attention to him", which is very much attention drawing. -His vote changed plenty enough for me to be suspicious. I understand using votes as pressure, but he jumped to many people I don't find suspicious/think may very well be town, and he helped push the MoonBear train pretty hard. These two are my top picks atm. Please respond with criticism/discussion, or if you are the accused respond with your rebuttal.
Be careful with the bolded, because that's confirmation bias. Just because someone is wrong, doesn't make them scum (and from my POV, he isn't even necessarily wrong about all of it). As for 'attention drawing' do you think scum typically want to be in the spotlight or avoid it? That also goes for vote switching: why do you think scum is more likely to flip flop in votes? I think I discussed this before but that's a pretty common misunderstanding of mindsets---yes scum are likely to try and jump bandwagons and whatnot but to do so constantly draws attention to their voting patterns. I believe that town is more likely to be switching votes constantly as they are always (and should be) re-evaluating reads constantly/ applying pressure, and most of all they are the one who should not care at all about what they look like to others.
I also think you should go back and consider what I wrote about LT/MB interaction. Does it make sense for LT to remove his vote as scum from a likely town mislynch when he did?
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On October 14 2014 01:26 ketchup wrote:
Also regarding owb, I think he's definitely town(or as close to town as I can feel someone being town). He says enough small new things combined with the old that I can definitely trust him for it. I really like the Asmo read, and some of his smaller comments that make me feel he cares enough about the game to set it in the right direction.
I am likely to agree with this, for your reasons as well as the fact that I don't think owb is confident enough to go against thread sentiment and blatantly defend me (though I must admit the fact that he knows I am a strong player, buddying me/getting on my good side and therefore separating himself from the stances of his team would be very good scumplay indeed---a play that I don't really think owb would make...no offense buddeh).
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On October 14 2014 01:35 Requizen wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 01:27 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 14 2014 01:20 Requizen wrote:To that end I'm going to go through filters and post my thoughts given the results of last night. I will skim through somewhat quickly, as the thread is fairly large, so link me to anything I may miss about a person. They will come as the day progresses. At the moment, my two biggest Scum reads are still Wave and LordyT. Partially left over from last night, partially because my reasoning still feels good to me. Wave because what I posted above, LordT for the reasons I discussed yesterday. Additionally: -his early "role call" was highly suspicious -His list of players is highly iffy. Knowing that MoonBear was VT and (myself) knowing I am not scum, he noted us as scummy. Knowing that he and Wave are on my watchlist, he noted them as townish. And he calls Alzadar scum for "not paying attention to him", which is very much attention drawing. -His vote changed plenty enough for me to be suspicious. I understand using votes as pressure, but he jumped to many people I don't find suspicious/think may very well be town, and he helped push the MoonBear train pretty hard. These two are my top picks atm. Please respond with criticism/discussion, or if you are the accused respond with your rebuttal. Be careful with the bolded, because that's confirmation bias. Just because someone is wrong, doesn't make them scum (and from my POV, he isn't even necessarily wrong about all of it). As for 'attention drawing' do you think scum typically want to be in the spotlight or avoid it? That also goes for vote switching: why do you think scum is more likely to flip flop in votes? I think I discussed this before but that's a pretty common misunderstanding of mindsets---yes scum are likely to try and jump bandwagons and whatnot but to do so constantly draws attention to their voting patterns. I believe that town is more likely to be switching votes constantly as they are always (and should be) re-evaluating reads constantly/ applying pressure, and most of all they are the one who should not care at all about what they look like to others.I also think you should go back and consider what I wrote about LT/MB interaction. Does it make sense for LT to remove his vote as scum from a likely town mislynch when he did? Redtext - Scum in spotlight draws attention away from other scum. A Goon drawing attention away from Godfather/Vigilante/Poisoner is doing a good job of helping Scum win, even if he dies. Though, that depends on if the player considers a team win still a win despite their own well-being. Bold - Starting bandwagons against non-scum causes town infighting. Town infighting leads to lynching VTs. In MB's case it didn't matter, he was mostly lynched due to inactivity/no responses to his situation, but worth considering. Italics - I disagree. I think votepressure is a bad tactic, since unnecessary pressure leads to people suspecting where there is nothing. This is less bandwagoning and more angry mob - one person gets accused, has no response/poor response, everyone jumps on them for not doing it right -> death. Angry mobs don't build towns, they kill innocents. Underline - It makes sense for Scum!LT to get off of a MB mislynch. It gives a fallback "I didn't vote for lynching the VT!" in the future. For Town!LT, it's a different case.
Redtext - It's not great scumplay to try and draw attention away from other people [i]when there's no one to draw attention away from[/] who was in danger at the point that he was trying to protect exactly? It's D1 and the lynch is so high up in the air, why draw attention and cause more scrutiny when the lynch could be almost conceivably anyone at that point? Yes your point makes sense to a degree but ONLY if at that point you're danger of losing a stronger player and that very clearly was not the case. Not to mention you're make some pretty huge assumptions about roles here.
Bold - I'm not sure what you're basing that on exactly. Bandwagons are exactly how people get lynched, scum OR town.
Italics - How is pressure a bad thing? Pressure also can get scum to slip and say something they shouldn't or gets you information you want. Req, a couple of these points are simply you not understanding how the game is played imo---as a VT how else are you supposed to get answers you want? Voting is your ONLY power as a VT. I'm sorry if you don't like me saying that there's stuff you don't understand and given the earlier history I guess I'll understand if you ignore this point, but in the postgame you're welcome to ask anyone who has played a game of mafia and they'll tell you the same. You are simply wrong here. Vore pressure does not always lead to an angry mob situation.
Underline- it doesn't make sense for him to get off when he did.
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I don't think those were contradictory---I think Alz was saying it was anti-town that discussion was being stifled not, that I was the one doing it. He can clarify though.
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On October 14 2014 01:47 Requizen wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 01:41 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 14 2014 01:35 Requizen wrote:On October 14 2014 01:27 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 14 2014 01:20 Requizen wrote:To that end I'm going to go through filters and post my thoughts given the results of last night. I will skim through somewhat quickly, as the thread is fairly large, so link me to anything I may miss about a person. They will come as the day progresses. At the moment, my two biggest Scum reads are still Wave and LordyT. Partially left over from last night, partially because my reasoning still feels good to me. Wave because what I posted above, LordT for the reasons I discussed yesterday. Additionally: -his early "role call" was highly suspicious -His list of players is highly iffy. Knowing that MoonBear was VT and (myself) knowing I am not scum, he noted us as scummy. Knowing that he and Wave are on my watchlist, he noted them as townish. And he calls Alzadar scum for "not paying attention to him", which is very much attention drawing. -His vote changed plenty enough for me to be suspicious. I understand using votes as pressure, but he jumped to many people I don't find suspicious/think may very well be town, and he helped push the MoonBear train pretty hard. These two are my top picks atm. Please respond with criticism/discussion, or if you are the accused respond with your rebuttal. Be careful with the bolded, because that's confirmation bias. Just because someone is wrong, doesn't make them scum (and from my POV, he isn't even necessarily wrong about all of it). As for 'attention drawing' do you think scum typically want to be in the spotlight or avoid it? That also goes for vote switching: why do you think scum is more likely to flip flop in votes? I think I discussed this before but that's a pretty common misunderstanding of mindsets---yes scum are likely to try and jump bandwagons and whatnot but to do so constantly draws attention to their voting patterns. I believe that town is more likely to be switching votes constantly as they are always (and should be) re-evaluating reads constantly/ applying pressure, and most of all they are the one who should not care at all about what they look like to others.I also think you should go back and consider what I wrote about LT/MB interaction. Does it make sense for LT to remove his vote as scum from a likely town mislynch when he did? Redtext - Scum in spotlight draws attention away from other scum. A Goon drawing attention away from Godfather/Vigilante/Poisoner is doing a good job of helping Scum win, even if he dies. Though, that depends on if the player considers a team win still a win despite their own well-being. Bold - Starting bandwagons against non-scum causes town infighting. Town infighting leads to lynching VTs. In MB's case it didn't matter, he was mostly lynched due to inactivity/no responses to his situation, but worth considering. Italics - I disagree. I think votepressure is a bad tactic, since unnecessary pressure leads to people suspecting where there is nothing. This is less bandwagoning and more angry mob - one person gets accused, has no response/poor response, everyone jumps on them for not doing it right -> death. Angry mobs don't build towns, they kill innocents. Underline - It makes sense for Scum!LT to get off of a MB mislynch. It gives a fallback "I didn't vote for lynching the VT!" in the future. For Town!LT, it's a different case. Redtext - It's not great scumplay to try and draw attention away from other people when there's no one to draw attention away from who was in danger at the point that he was trying to protect exactly? It's D1 and the lynch is so high up in the air, why draw attention and cause more scrutiny when the lynch could be almost conceivably anyone at that point? Yes your point makes sense to a degree but ONLY if at that point you're danger of losing a stronger player and that very clearly was not the case. Not to mention you're make some pretty huge assumptions about roles here. Bold - I'm not sure what you're basing that on exactly. Bandwagons are exactly how people get lynched, scum OR town. Italics - How is pressure a bad thing? Pressure also can get scum to slip and say something they shouldn't or gets you information you want. Req, a couple of these points are simply you not understanding how the game is played imo---as a VT how else are you supposed to get answers you want? Voting is your ONLY power as a VT. I'm sorry if you don't like me saying that there's stuff you don't understand and given the earlier history I guess I'll understand if you ignore this point, but in the postgame you're welcome to ask anyone who has played a game of mafia and they'll tell you the same. You are simply wrong here. Vore pressure does not always lead to an angry mob situation. Underline- it doesn't make sense for him to get off when he did. Maybe I don't understand the meta. But that's my reasoning. To me his actions seemed and still seem suspicious. You can cause pressure without someone suddenly having 5 votes on them. Take last night for example. Everyone was "pressuing" MB to respond and they all naturally dumped their votes onto him "waiting for an answer", when the only thing he had done that was suspicious was make a dumb post about driving. His lack of an answer got him killed over nothing and all the Townies get to say "well it's not my fault, everyone else voted too". A Townie who jumps onto a pressure vote and kills another non-scum is a) wasting their vote and b) losing the game. I knew my vote against you wasn't going to get you to talk, since no one else was on there, but I placed it where my feelings were rather than on a random person I wanted to hear talk. And I don't have his verdant green blood on my hands.
I posit that it wasn't lack of MB responding later on that got him killed, rather his general attitude and the early case against him/lack of reads without responding to those when he had plenty of time to do so. People had already made up their minds long before that became 'pressuring.' Look at soniv for example. Look at how many people DIDN'T vote MB and said 'I may move my vote over to him when such-and-such' happens. All the blame though can't be place on MB though, scum and town are both to blame as well. I personally believe the wagon had a decent scum push/following to it, and town were not willing to look past MB's early faults and consider the points I had brought up about MB's aggression (less so the blue stuff because I brought it up late).
As for the bolded neither do I but you don't see people willing to clear me for it, do you?
As far as voting patterns go, in my experience it is way more likely for scum to spread out their votes than to pile on---solo voting is a big no-no as was explained a little earlier. (up to you again if you consider that useful or not). I have a fair idea that you're town but obstinately voting outside the group is an easy way for scum to absolve themselves of responsibility like you are doing. This goes for me as well since I was voting Asmo.
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On October 14 2014 01:55 Lord Tolkien wrote:
All i will say is the pushback onto MB after i tried to save him is interesting.
No you'll say more than that.
Don't make me do all the work.
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And I agree btw vigi should absolutely shoot tonight. Won't attempt to coach blues on role usage because I don't think WIFOMing the scum will really help at this point.
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Do something. I'm sick of defending you.
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On October 14 2014 02:06 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Wave, do you have a scumread? I've skimmed the last two pages of your filter and can't seem to find one (it was a quick skim cuz I have done a pitifully low amount of work today and need to stop having TL open constantly - this is a legitimate inquiry)
Eh, was going to make a big case on you at some point but somehow I think in this game that doesn't really go very far.
I'm pretty sure if you read my posting since right before the end of day up until you could have figured out the first two for yourself, but whatever, in the interest of transparency:
You and Asmo. Was originally going to be owb 3rd for that awful no-lynch vote but his posting HAS actually been pretty damn decent.
Mebbe Coma for third and no idea who for 4th. Maybe Alz or something. Somebody playing well/flying under them radars.
I am assuming at this point that we're dealing with 4 scum and a 3P (hopefully just survivor) but I have seen 4 scum and 3P with KP before, and that setup really sucks for us.
Your turn, if we're putting our cards on the table.
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On October 14 2014 02:08 jcarlsoniv wrote:
actually, it's a bit early - hold onto your reads Wave, I'll be more interested in discussing it closer to deadline
Nah it's fine. Go ahead and make decisions based on what I just said. 
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On October 14 2014 02:14 ketchup wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 02:11 WaveofShadow wrote:
I am assuming at this point that we're dealing with 4 scum and a 3P (hopefully just survivor) but I have seen 4 scum and 3P with KP before, and that setup really sucks for us.
Your turn, if we're putting our cards on the table. 14 player game is 4 scum??? Is that real? Can you explain please. This is a legit inquiry because I assumed 3 scum + 1 3P(with possible KP).
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/442512-survivor-series-mafia
No 3P here
I remembered one of my other scumgames wrong as well, thought it was 14 with 4 scum and 3P but it was 16.
I could swear there was another one recently with 4scum + 3P but I could be wrong.
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On October 14 2014 02:21 ketchup wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2014 02:18 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 14 2014 02:14 ketchup wrote:On October 14 2014 02:11 WaveofShadow wrote:
I am assuming at this point that we're dealing with 4 scum and a 3P (hopefully just survivor) but I have seen 4 scum and 3P with KP before, and that setup really sucks for us.
Your turn, if we're putting our cards on the table. 14 player game is 4 scum??? Is that real? Can you explain please. This is a legit inquiry because I assumed 3 scum + 1 3P(with possible KP). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/442512-survivor-series-mafiaNo 3P here I remembered one of my other scumgames wrong as well, thought it was 14 with 4 scum and 3P but it was 16. I could swear there was another one recently with 4scum + 3P but I could be wrong. Ok, so 4scum IS possible with 14. It is either 4 scum or 3 scum + 1 3P(with possible KP)
To be fair, Les was fairly scum favoured. We had a 2-shot vig on top of our nightly shot.
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Oh nvm I keep confusing myself. Yeah survivor series was kind of different though because of the lynching mechanic. It wasn't a normal game.
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It actually shouldn't matter much this early.
Drawing connections before you see any flip often leads to confirmation bias.
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MORDEK SCUMSLIP
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST
Also Req I'm going to go ahead and say while it's nice that you're getting your reads out, it isn't strictly helpful to town to be vomiting everything all at once. Should be focusing specifically on who is scum and why as that is our job---if someone you think is town gets attacked then you can describe why you disagree and whatnot to prevent mislynching. Focus is key.
Just my two cents.
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I really wish Alaric would stay and discuss shit rather than explode all over the thread and the leave to do it again.
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Yeah except for the fact that nobody knows if you're right or wrong, and it's often not so easy to determine why scum has killed a particular person. Someone dying can and very often is independent of reads. I've won a game before because the first person we killed had EVERY read he posted be completely wrong.
Again, not telling you not to post reads, but just try to realize why and also WHEN things are important.
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You're not reading, are you soniv? Tsk tsk.
I know who his scum reads are.
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EPT
