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On August 25 2014 01:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
Which should have been obvious even from the start of when it happened, like I said.
At this point it means we're both town, but don't take MY word for it or anything.
Hapa, I'm handing in my homework at the last minute tonight it looks like. I won't have enough time to do the filter diving I wanted to for the rest of the day and last night I really just wanted to play HS (except then fucking Lizard squad n' shit)
You can see why this doesn't line up with...
[QUOTE]On August 24 2014 16:25 Hapahauli wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 24 2014 10:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 24 2014 10:24 Hapahauli wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 24 2014 10:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Yup no point right now we lynch into people not on robik imo[/QUOTE]
That pool includes you sadly. Your homework is also to go over the votecount and tell us who's mafia. [/QUOTE]
Yeah well aware, and I also look like shit specifically because I didn't want to switch but whatever.
I'm fucking pumped and confident[/QUOTE]
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FUck formatting, but you get the idea.
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There's very little point to draw much from Robik's filter regardless. It's a WIFOM trap really.
What we're more concerned with is
a) what other people said about robik
b) the Day 1 lynch
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On August 25 2014 04:08 VayneAuthority wrote:
nice job on the lynch guys, finally got a chance to read up. I think we would have caught robik eventually simply for afking the majority of the game, if I recall he is usually more active.
ill be back later tonight to see the night actions and do some analysis on that if needed.
Would you say you were subjectively useful yesterday?
With your vote being on Damdred and all.
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He's either town or SK.
I can interpret his actions as someone either:
a) a townie too immersed in the thread and the flow of it
b) someone who's trying to agree with anything to stay alive
I don't get anything malicious from his play. Only a survival instinct. Given how much pressure he was under during the day, this is plausible as town. And I still interpret his near psychotic activity levels as not-mafia.
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So here's the pool of players that are up for lynch tomorrow:
Xatalos
Wave
Damdred
Vayne
Onegu
Kelsier
Everyone else is either confirmed town (GB/Turtle), likely town from the lynch (Yamato, JAT) or mentally unstable and probably town (Rayn). So here's where I stand on these players.
I think Xatalos is likely town. I've mentioned a lot on Xatalos already, but overall, the lynch yesterday seemed like it was between two townies until Robik got last minute hammered. If you look where Robik's vote was parked, you can see he wasn't very concerned about "saving one of his scumbuddies". Rather, he was blending in. The vote count in general also really points to it being a town-v-town lynch before the last-minute stuff:
On August 24 2014 09:58 Sylencia wrote:
Counting of votes:
raynpelikoneet (1): IAmRobik, Hapahauli, Xatalos, GlowingBear, Onegu
GlowingBear (0): raynpelikoneet
turtlevine (0): GlowingBear
yamato77 (3): Xatalos, Hapahauli, WaveOfShadow, Hapahauli, Xatalos, justanothertownie
Damdred (1): Xatalos, raynpelikoneet, VayneAuthority
Xatalos (3): turtlevine, raynpelikoneet, KelsierSC, turtlevine, Damdred, yamato77
Hapahauli (1): raynpelikoneet, GlowingBear, turtlevine
WaveOfShadow (0): raynpelikoneet, yamato77
Onegu (1): IAmRobik
IAmRobik (3): yamato77, GlowingBear, Hapahauli
Not voting (0):
Deadline is Sunday, Aug 24 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
yamato77 is set to be lynched. Notify me of any mistakes.
A lot of fragmented votes, and it should be pretty clear that one wagon isn't being heavily pushed (which should be the case in a scum v. town lynch). Therefore, it's likely Xatalos is town with Yamato. Even if you don't like meta stuff, I think this is pretty solid evidence.
As for Kelsier, I read a lot of what he does as confirmation bias. In his first game on the site, he seems very confident and cocky, which I think is more likely to come from a town player. I don't agree with the way he's approaching the game, but he has had a consistent mentality throughout the game.
Onegu is null. He just hasn't posted nearly enough for me to make a read on him. Good cop check here.
I think our mafia is between Wave, Damdred, and Vayne, in order of confidence.
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Wave
When he re-enters the thread when suspicions start being pushed, he first votes Yamato.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/465098-guilty-mini-mafia?page=61#1205
Now this post spends a lot of time talking about nothing. Talks about how he thinks Rayn is town but is tempted to lynch him for being annoying, talks about not wanting to lynch myself or Rayn, then finally moves onto his Yamato vote. 66% of this post is poitnless and has nothing to do with why Yamato is scum. This strikes me as very suspicious, but we haven't gotten to the main evidence int his case yet.
Anyway, after he votes Yamato, look at the amount of people he is about to call scum in the ensuing discussion:
On August 24 2014 01:34 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 01:18 KelsierSC wrote:
So earlier on I said that WoS would be a good lynch but now I am pretty convinced he is town.
I already said I didn't like the early game from him but I think he has done enough now to get my town pass. Specifically.
He brought up some good points about Dama, I still think dama is town but WoS had accurate reads on him.
He never really trusted Yam and now he voted on him and brought up more good points, I also think Yam is scum I really like this read.
I think he is frustrated with rayn but still reads him town, I have the same read
His last post seemed really well thought out and his analysis of Hapa seemed well constructed ALTHOUGH I don't have experience with Hapa so im not sure if it is true.
Xat but him as a +4 early, I think xat is scum, I don't think Xat would +4 a partner that early.
He voted on Yam who is a top lynch of mine.
TLDR - WoS is really town
SO you really completely re-evaluated your read on me based on one post? I'm not a huge fan of how all of your reads seem to be entirely based on whether they agree with you or not. Pretty terrible heuristic imo. Also VA do I detect a hint of tryhard? You scum?
On August 24 2014 01:50 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 01:46 KelsierSC wrote:On August 24 2014 01:34 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 24 2014 01:18 KelsierSC wrote:
So earlier on I said that WoS would be a good lynch but now I am pretty convinced he is town.
I already said I didn't like the early game from him but I think he has done enough now to get my town pass. Specifically.
He brought up some good points about Dama, I still think dama is town but WoS had accurate reads on him.
He never really trusted Yam and now he voted on him and brought up more good points, I also think Yam is scum I really like this read.
I think he is frustrated with rayn but still reads him town, I have the same read
His last post seemed really well thought out and his analysis of Hapa seemed well constructed ALTHOUGH I don't have experience with Hapa so im not sure if it is true.
Xat but him as a +4 early, I think xat is scum, I don't think Xat would +4 a partner that early.
He voted on Yam who is a top lynch of mine.
TLDR - WoS is really town
SO you really completely re-evaluated your read on me based on one post? I'm not a huge fan of how all of your reads seem to be entirely based on whether they agree with you or not. Pretty terrible heuristic imo. Also VA do I detect a hint of tryhard? You scum? No it wasn't one post, I checked your filter and I liked your points about Dama, I also think you brought up some points about yamata which I agreed with. I think your post and your vote were good so you are definitely not a lynch for me today My points about Damdred were before I left early yesterday and after you had continued to call me scum since. The Xat point is something I've been dwelling on, btw. I don't know what this mafia tools shit is, but to me it looks like it should make Xat all-but-confirmed town. Otherwise the +4 is and always has been fishy. I may end up attempting to ignore the copy paste thing and filter diving him as well.
On August 24 2014 02:03 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 01:58 justanothertownie wrote:On August 23 2014 23:10 IAmRobik wrote:
I find myself agreeing with JAT a lot That's a good thing. But also a useless statement if you don't even say what it is you are agreeing with. On August 23 2014 23:15 Onegu wrote:On August 23 2014 22:36 Xatalos wrote:On August 23 2014 22:34 Onegu wrote:On August 23 2014 22:30 justanothertownie wrote:On August 23 2014 22:29 Onegu wrote:On August 23 2014 22:28 justanothertownie wrote:On August 23 2014 22:26 Onegu wrote:
Also Kempachi rule So GB is scum? Try again. Dunno even know why people have him confirmed... Because he and the turtle claimed masons that are confirmed town to each other. Doesn't make much sense to claim as mafia, does it? How does that make anysense whatsoever? Seems like a sweet claim if Im mafia. And eveyone just believed them, in a closed setup? Think about it a little though. It's almost impossible that they would both survive until LYLO (SK bullets, blue powers etc. could easily reveal one of them and then the other one is 100% dead as well) and even if they did, they'd be pretty much auto-lynch at LYLO. Yes this is true if both are mafia, but how is it impossible that is one town and one scum, unless both of them are saying in thier PM that they are confirmed masoned with another town. On August 23 2014 23:27 Onegu wrote:On August 23 2014 23:24 Damdred wrote:
They already answered that if you had read the thread instead of trying to just filter dive rayn you would know tgis Then just tell me. Jeez is it hard? 1) Are you not able to read or something? I literally said they are confirmed to each other in this very chain of quotes. 2) Fucking read the thread and THEN continue posting. On August 23 2014 23:43 GlowingBear wrote:On August 23 2014 23:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not talking to scum anymore today.
I have to leave in ~1h so if anyone who is colored green wants to ask something go ahead.
Blame Koshi for this. Which smart things is Robik saying? I only see "lol shut up I'm town" Good question. lol so reminiscent of scumJAT catchups from last game.
On August 24 2014 02:37 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh shit if that's Prome and he also thinks Hapa is scum then we're getting somewhere.
That's a selection from pages 5-6 of his filter. I'd recommend you all take a look through it. The guy calls myself, Jat, Damdred, Xatalos, and VA suspicious, all while antagonizing Rayn.
So there are two possible explanations for this:
1) He is a townie involved and trying to figure out the game.
2) He is scum trying to spread suspicion on everything.
#1 is not the case because of what happens next. Wave takes a break from the thread, and comes back with:
On August 24 2014 08:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey, so 1.5h to go.
Who the fuck are we lynching?
And then he proceeds to tunnel the fuck out of Yamato. Gone are his suspicions of basically everyone in the thread. Gone are his suspicions of me and Xatalos. Gone is everything in his filter except lynch Yamato.
This sudden switch from "suspicious of everyone" to "lynch Yamato!!!!" 1.5 hours before the deadline is terribly scummy, and I think Wave is our best shot for tomorrow.
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Damdred
This one's shorter.
Firstly, his vote yesterday was by far the worst in the thread:
On August 24 2014 08:48 Damdred wrote:
##Vote Xatalos
This just feels like a mislynch on yamato being pushed. Xatalos feels the most scummy in the whole thread maybe he is town and i'm totally misreading him (again) but I don't like this lynch
He's voting Xatalos because he thinks Yamato is town, and Xatalos scummy but Damdred "could be misreading him."
Yeah no.
He also posted a lot in the Night 1 discussion and literally all of it was irrelevant.
Start at the bottom of Page 6 of his filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/465098-guilty-mini-mafia?user=Damdred&page=6
...and work your way to page 7.
He's asking questions to Xatalos, commenting/replying to random things... but that's it. No attempt to analyze vote counts, no attempt to make sense of the lynch, and really no attempt to do anything but a very awkward tunnel on Xata.
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@ Wave
Firstly, it doesn't matter whether or not you took a break from the thread. It was under my impression that you did. But if you did not, no matter.
The issue is how you went from a mentality to being "skeptical of everything" to not considering anything other than lynching Yamato very quickly. Like, you were pretty skeptical of me and Xatalos even after you voted for Yamato. And it's so strange for you to have no doubts about Yamato being mafia after this exchange:
On August 24 2014 08:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey, so 1.5h to go.
Who the fuck are we lynching?
On August 24 2014 08:29 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 08:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey, so 1.5h to go.
Who the fuck are we lynching?
Vote yamato
On August 24 2014 08:29 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 08:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey, so 1.5h to go.
Who the fuck are we lynching?
Yamato obviously.
On August 24 2014 08:29 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2014 08:29 Xatalos wrote:On August 24 2014 08:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey, so 1.5h to go.
Who the fuck are we lynching?
Vote yamato lol, really?
Yeah.
And on top of all this, you still have to explain to me how voting Yamato, then calling like 5-6 people mafia and antagonizing one of yoru town reads is remotely town-motivated.
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On August 25 2014 09:40 justanothertownie wrote:
Hapa, why is rayn town?
His behavior is consistent with him going off the deep end as town. He's not pushign objectives. He's just flailing. And that's pretty townie.
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And on top of all this, you still have to explain to me how voting Yamato, then calling like 5-6 people mafia and antagonizing one of yoru town reads is remotely town-motivated.
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On August 25 2014 09:46 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 09:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hapa, I picked my strongest suspicion and rolled with it.
Pretty fucking simple if you ask me.
The 'who are we lynching' was meant because the thread had no aim at the time. If you look at the post directly before i left the thread I talked about consolidation then too. Since my vote is on yamato, and the thread had no aim, I started pushing everyone towards my strongest scumread, yamato.
Is that not completely fucking obvious to everyone?
Am I in the fucking twilight zone here? Yeh Wave is town, Hapa you are wrong about this
Why should I listen to you again?
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On August 25 2014 09:48 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 09:46 Hapahauli wrote:And on top of all this, you still have to explain to me how voting Yamato, then calling like 5-6 people mafia and antagonizing one of yoru town reads is remotely town-motivated. I already did. Wasn't antagonizing rayn, look at our conversation around that time when he responded to me? Was I making things worse? I also didn't call 5-6 people mafia. I had suspicion on something like 3-4, which is a MASSIVE difference to me since I am almost ALWAYS unsure of my own scumreads. Your case holds absolutely no water Hapa, it is horribly weak and obviously wrong. The question then becomes, why?
You had "suspicion" on a lot more than 3-4. And if your interpreting your actions to be anything other than antagonizing Rayn, I find that laughable. You spend more time in your post that voted yamato talking about Rayn and how you were thinking about lynching him for being annoying.
As for you always being unsure of your own scumreads - I will read some of your town games. I find it rediculous how many people you can call suspicious after dropping a vote on someone though.
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On August 25 2014 09:56 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 09:52 justanothertownie wrote:On August 25 2014 09:51 WaveofShadow wrote:
ALright I still haven't fucking read Damdred even though I've meant to for like the entirety of D1
Entirely by PoE the rest of scum has to be within Onegu/VA/Damdred (unless we start delving into Shadow game shenannies territory and it's too early for that).
I'd prefer lynching VA so far I think, simply because Onegu is a coinflip and I just can't ever seem to read damdred and I won't lynch him without doing so. Wut? Surely you will have time to read damdred at some point before the lynch?! Of course. What? I only mean based on what I've read (or haven't lol) I wouldn't currently lynch him.
Ok. Why?
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On August 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 09:57 Hapahauli wrote:On August 25 2014 09:56 WaveofShadow wrote:On August 25 2014 09:52 justanothertownie wrote:On August 25 2014 09:51 WaveofShadow wrote:
ALright I still haven't fucking read Damdred even though I've meant to for like the entirety of D1
Entirely by PoE the rest of scum has to be within Onegu/VA/Damdred (unless we start delving into Shadow game shenannies territory and it's too early for that).
I'd prefer lynching VA so far I think, simply because Onegu is a coinflip and I just can't ever seem to read damdred and I won't lynch him without doing so. Wut? Surely you will have time to read damdred at some point before the lynch?! Of course. What? I only mean based on what I've read (or haven't lol) I wouldn't currently lynch him. Ok. Why? Because I haven't read him
U so pumped and excited to play yo.
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Hm well atleast I was right about Rayn
Now who to vote...
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Nah I changed my mind on you. I'm thinking Damdred or VA.
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Right after the deadline, after the flip, he apologizes to xat. Then he says Xat is town. Thats good. But then afterwards, he says, "xat could still be sk" and this is still kind of reasonable. He explicitly puts Xat in his town list, then moves him back to his scumlist, and isn't very clear on his reasons about this. this flipflopping on xat is very unusual. Either Xat is showing characteristics of an SK, or he isn't. None of this is in reference to things Xat did after the deadline, it's just KSC changing his opinion. It's plausible that this is a legitimate change of heart. GB and I do not think so. It appears opportunitistic.
To be fair turtle, KSC changed his mind on Xat because I spent time pointing out that logical flaw in his opinion on Xat. Read the interaction (including my posts) then make up your mind. It seems like you just skimmed his filter and made a quick judgement.
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On August 25 2014 10:13 turtlevine wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2014 10:11 Hapahauli wrote:Right after the deadline, after the flip, he apologizes to xat. Then he says Xat is town. Thats good. But then afterwards, he says, "xat could still be sk" and this is still kind of reasonable. He explicitly puts Xat in his town list, then moves him back to his scumlist, and isn't very clear on his reasons about this. this flipflopping on xat is very unusual. Either Xat is showing characteristics of an SK, or he isn't. None of this is in reference to things Xat did after the deadline, it's just KSC changing his opinion. It's plausible that this is a legitimate change of heart. GB and I do not think so. It appears opportunitistic. To be fair turtle, KSC changed his mind on Xat because I spent time pointing out that logical flaw in his opinion on Xat. Read the interaction (including my posts) then make up your mind. It seems like you just skimmed his filter and made a quick judgement. It was GB's idea, he didn't even explain why KSC was scum, or even mention the read in our Mason QT. I just felt like given that we might potentially both die, I have an obligation to write a case for him since he couldn't be around to write it himself. I did what I could! I'm sure he'll show up shortly with an even better case.
That's uh.. pretty retarded man.
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EPT
