EPTWorld Cup Mini Mafia - Page 7
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Vivax
21737 Posts
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 01 2014 22:55 kushm4sta wrote: 1 Perhaps too easy. Especially when there are a bunch of people deserving of a lynch. 2 Haru is a noob, which makes it harder for me to read him, since I usually try to read people by looking at the quality of their reads. 3 Mderg vs Cav stance seems almost too scummy to be scum. It's just he was especially unaccommodating when I pressed him about how it didn't make sense for his two scum reads to be a one or the other situation. I'm not sure who to push for lynch actually I kinda got this picture of multiple people but I can't figure out which one is the most likely to be scum. I guess I'd go for mderg today. On the other hand TP is pushing ihm for lynch already and that's interesting cause right now I think they have a good shot at being teammates. Who would your alternative to Haru be. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 01 2014 23:45 IAmRobik wrote: Yeah, I mean, we're obviously not lynching cav til tomorrow at best, and possibly even further down the road if we hit on mafia, but if we can clear the cav voters that will go a long way in figuring out the game. Having said that, and thinking about what my mafia lists would look like in both situations, I don't think they'd change too much. The only clear thing is that whatever is going on between mderg and haru is 100% not a bus and not m/m So what you want to say is that if one of them flips x for you the other must be y? That's cool and I will hold you up to it but it doesn't solve the question: Who is the most likely scum out of the bunch, and I find this haru wagon too onesided, rash and unexplained. I called a townread on this guy earlier and unless I missed something I didn't see anyone of the guys on his wagon to call me out for that townread which is supposed to go against their view of who is scum. I asked explicitly for people to discuss that read with me. | ||
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Vivax
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Are you aware of the fact mderg called you mafia or at least probably mafia. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 02 2014 00:57 IAmRobik wrote: Yes. I called him out on it. I don't know if having a wrong read 100% makes you mafia, but his inconsistencies about the "there's a reason to townread robik" "i never townread robik" "other people are townreading robik" thing is disconcerting I'm just wondering what's stopping you to call him mafia and try to get him lynched like you tried to lynch sinani (aggressively) after you spammed him a liar. On the other hand I don't see many reasons for why your vote is on haru. Why are you voting haru and not mderg? | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
So in reevaluating the read I found this tidbit that gives me doubts cause when Haru attacked Koshi D1 in this post me and OO had expressed doubts towards him. Haru is one of the guys "following" us into that suspicion, the next guy who voted Koshi was rainbows, then Palmar, although with Palmar I have a hard time telling if he was doing something strategic or if he meant it cause he didn't explain that Koshi scumread. However for some reason then Haru goes into saying that everybody is null so I'M puzzled where the content of his Koshi scumreading post ended up. On June 27 2014 23:25 HaruRH wrote: Koshi is weird. Strong scum push on kush, retracts it, goes onto OO and then condescends his way out of a push on him. nope. ##Unvote ##Vote: Koshi On June 28 2014 01:23 HaruRH wrote: currently, everyone is null because nobody is posting anything alignment indicative imo. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
So in reevaluating the read I found this tidbit that gives me doubts cause when Haru attacked Koshi D1 in this post me and OO had expressed doubts towards Koshi already (so basically it could have been a good time for mafia to try and start a wagon). | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 02 2014 02:38 kushm4sta wrote: dunno why i didn't lissten to vivax earlier. vivax is sexy as hell. but he's sexy in a way that takes you a while to realize. like that girl at first you think is ugly but then you fall in love with her AND you realize SHES THE Most BEAUTIFUL PERSON IN THE WORLD haha u weirdo :p | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 02 2014 02:39 kushm4sta wrote: yeah but the thing is, would he be so blatant like that about the inconsistency of his reads as scum? The pressure on Koshi didn't really keep building up cause I didn't want to lynch him D1 anyway and Palmar's scumread was not pushed at all. OO simply dropped it the day after but he pointed out the post he liked to let off of Koshi. Rainbows kept arguing with a few people (ie Palmar and I think Koshi) about Koshi and then at some point cleared him for a townie response. All of these guys somehow seem to have a reason to treat Koshi the way they do at a certain point. but Haru sticks out cause he calls him scum and then forgets about him. | ||
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Vivax
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Vivax
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On July 02 2014 02:48 kushm4sta wrote: maybe his scumread silently transformed into a townread by noticing some of koshi's posts Yes that's possible but if he doesn't point out how that exactly happened, what changed his mind etc. in time before deadline I might reconsider my vote. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On June 27 2014 23:05 kushm4sta wrote: So what are your thoughts on who should get lynched? if you have any. On June 27 2014 23:25 HaruRH wrote: Koshi is weird. Strong scum push on kush, retracts it, goes onto OO and then condescends his way out of a push on him. nope. ##Unvote ##Vote: Koshi On July 02 2014 02:59 kushm4sta wrote: yeah i buy this story from haru. someone told him to make a case. he was like lol ill make a shitcase. scum don't do that. And obviously he didn't believe in his own shitcase. It would be scummy to do so, actually. And that someone was you lol? Dunno man doesn't look like you threatened him to make a case even if it's shit or else. | ||
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Vivax
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Vivax
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I wanna pick apart a bit of this caseblob since Exo hasn't really been discussed thoroughly. Koshi gave him a townread for the Robik vote upon scumclaim but Koshi also believed Robik was town (and that scum wouldn't vote for a scumclaiming town). I don't think we can apply this on ExO as long as we don't reliably know Robik's alignment. The full post: + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2014 13:01 ExO_ wrote: So for starters there are 2 scenarios from the day 1 results: Either Cavalinho was mafia, or he wasn't. If he was mafia then we should've seen some votes move at the end of the day to his only major rival, sinanai. If he wasn't mafia, then the only 2 major candidates for voting at the end weren't mafia. Which would mean mafia had no incentive to really get one killed over the other. Looking at the end, mderg tried to switch but his vote didn't go through. If he's mafia, I don't think he tries that. I mean why? What's the incentive?* This makes me think he isn't mafia. And if Cava is mafia, the mafia team sure was willing to let him die day 1. He came extremely close. This makes me think, that Cava isn't mafia either. Ruling out these 2, myself, and the people that have already died leaves me with this list, of which I believe the 3 mafia names are contained 1) ObviousOne 4) kushm4sta 5) Tehpoofter 9) Rainbows 11) Vivax 12) IAmRobik 13) HaruRH *(in the course of investigating this list, I realized an incentive: mderg could be switching as mafia to try to kill the claimed cop, though I think it's highly unlikely.) So after going through these filters the 2 most likely Candidates for mafia in my opinion are Vivax and HaruRH. Starting with HaruRH, he really pushes the idea of killing off Cav day 2 if he doesn't die Night 1. He's also actively trying to link cav and mderg, or at least repeatedly claiming both as mafia. This isn't a solid idea in my opinion. If Cav is mafia, why does mderg switch to him at the last second? mderg could be mafia, but the way he switched votes at the last second to cav doesn't seem to me like a mafia trying to get the cop lynched. HaruRH I think wants cav lynch on day 2, have him flip town, and then wants to lynch mderg day 3 because he knows 1 of those 2 is scum. The case on HaruRH is decent, but I think there is a possibility he's a severely misguided town. A very slim possibility and I really think it's much more likely he's mafia. But I have almost no doubt in my mind that Vivax is scum. Let's start with: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2014 05:22 Vivax wrote: Just fyi, Palmar tells his dying scumbuddies to fakeclaim before they die so theý fish a blue coutnerclaiming with their death. If you're cop don't counterclaim, keep a mental note that cav is scum, get your check off and then see if you can claim the next day. If my theory is correct, Vivax knows that cav isn't scum. He probably believes Cav's cop claim. But for public purposes, he has to appear as though he doesn't believe cavs cop claim. So he says the aforementioned. Also he's planting seeds to kill Palmar, but palmar died (likely died to town vigilante). We know palmar flipped town. I don't think Vivax was counting on this, but it does make what he said here look odd. If you read his filter he is trying hard to set up for Palmer. + Show Spoiler + On June 28 2014 17:30 Vivax wrote: I think kush and sinani are town, cause their reactions were similar to mine and cause kush is giving me some town feelz with more recent posts. I don't see anything wrong with sinani backpedaling from his vote cause I would have done the same. . Mafia calling town as town. + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2014 00:56 Vivax wrote: Is there any poor soul in here that still thinks Cava is a cop? Where have his N1 posts been when he should have been afraid of being NKed, leading to him posting about stuff that would be important before his eventual death? Because I believe cav isn't mafia, this looks to me like mafia afraid cav would be mediced on N1, and is setting up for a D2 lynch on cav (who is the cop). So those are my thoughts. I think HaruRH and Vivax are scum based on the day 1 voting, and what's been said. Everybody else is either a town read or a null read for me. I'm not sure who the 3rd mafia might be. ##Lynch Vivax Tidbit 1: So for starters there are 2 scenarios from the day 1 results: Either Cavalinho was mafia, or he wasn't. If he was mafia then we should've seen some votes move at the end of the day to his only major rival, sinanai. If he wasn't mafia, then the only 2 major candidates for voting at the end weren't mafia. Which would mean mafia had no incentive to really get one killed over the other. Looking at the end, mderg tried to switch but his vote didn't go through. If he's mafia, I don't think he tries that. I mean why? What's the incentive?* This makes me think he isn't mafia. And if Cava is mafia, the mafia team sure was willing to let him die day 1. He came extremely close. This makes me think, that Cava isn't mafia either. Ruling out these 2, myself, and the people that have already died leaves me with this list, of which I believe the 3 mafia names are contained We did see those votes at the end of the day: Exo unlurking shortly before Cava was lynched, putting his vote on sinani along with mderg. The flaws here are: - Exo basically starts by saying that mafia would pile up on sinani at the end of the day if Cava is scum. - In the next paragraph, he clears mderg by saying that the post-deadline voteswitch wasn't scum motivated (which isn't true, all he has to do is submit the post when the votecount timer reaches zero and it has the potential to give him benefits as scum). Mderg thoroughly tried to explain to us why he isn't scum for that voteswitch, and the fact that he was able to use that argumentation is a reason for scum to do that play already. Just like I hard defended town Cava before a lynch when I was scum (and people didn't think such a thing would be scum motivated), I was able to obtain mafia benefits just by being unpredictable. tl;dr: He clars mderg ___________________________ Then, he clears Cava based on the premise that mderg is town, and that he knows his own alignment. This seems fine at first, but there are enough flaws in his argumentation. First: Mafia could have been behind sinani's wagon from the start, Exo isn't considering that Robik was a big force behind the sinani lynch and claims that mafia must have joined at the end of the day. Why doesn't he consider this if Robik is still one of his suspects? Why does he choose to give him a freecard during his argumentation for why mderg and cava are town? If I were still suspicious of Robik, then I wouldn't claim that mafia must have swayed the wagons at the end of the day, only taking myself and mderg as examples. If I were suspicious of Robik, then I would also be looking at how the wagon started. Second: He argues that Cava came close to dying and that also makes him town. Again, this is an argument that only applies cause he and mderg both saved him and lynched sinani. Third: If I know I'm town, and ended up saving Cava like Exo did, I would look at the other guys who were on the same wagon as me, and not take myself as an example for why mafia isn't piling up at the end of the day. Tidbit 2, his arguments for me being scum: The case on HaruRH is decent, but I think there is a possibility he's a severely misguided town. A very slim possibility and I really think it's much more likely he's mafia. But I have almost no doubt in my mind that Vivax is scum. Let's start with: If my theory is correct, Vivax knows that cav isn't scum. He probably believes Cav's cop claim. But for public purposes, he has to appear as though he doesn't believe cavs cop claim. So he says the aforementioned. Also he's planting seeds to kill Palmar, but palmar died (likely died to town vigilante). We know palmar flipped town. I don't think Vivax was counting on this, but it does make what he said here look odd. If you read his filter he is trying hard to set up for Palmer. His two arguments that leave him without doubt are both based on the premise that cav isn't scum, effectively showing that his whole argumentation stands on very dangly feet since that premise is just as dangly. He then claims I secretly believe that Cav is a cop. The evidence is his theory, if it is correct. He says I plant seeds to lynch Palmar later when Palmar openly admitted to making a shitty case on me, which I debunked in all its aspects. This tells me Exo isn't reading neither Palmar's nor my filter properly and tl;dr: I call bullshit all over Exo's only attempted quality post. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
##Vote: ExO | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 02 2014 03:53 IAmRobik wrote: I read your argument Vivax, but I'm unsure why you say this: What does your argument have to do with my alignment at all? I'm town, does that change your opinion? I'm mafia, does that change your opinion? I think the answer to both those questions is no because the case has nothing to do with my alignment, so why did you put that in? Are you trying to call me scum? I'm so confused I'm saying that we can't let him skip just cause he voted for you when you scumclaimed. Koshi thought that was a towntell but I'm not so sure about that. | ||
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Vivax
21737 Posts
On July 02 2014 03:58 IAmRobik wrote: No, that's not what you're saying. You're saying that not knowing my alignment makes ExO scummy. How does knowing my alignment change anything that you said in your case. Don't circumvent answering the question Your alignment doesn't change that you can't clear Exo cause he voted for you when you scumclaimed. That's the whole point I want to make to illustrate why he's a possible scummer. You aren't one of the guys I would lynch today anyway so I don't see a point in continuing this discussion. | ||
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Vivax
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Waiting for TehPoofter, Cavalinho, OO, Exo and mderg Oh look it's all those people town has trouble reading. | ||
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