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On June 08 2014 06:10 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:On June 08 2014 05:16 Amiko wrote:
@Fuba re: N2 Roleblock
I think the thing is, from my point of view mderg looked was relatively towny for being on the right wagon.
I don't feel like the roleblock claim was really necessary for him to get 'town cred' (and it also seems like something scum wouldn't feel the need to do since no one was giving Slam townreads based on his roleblock claim, except maybe M_Z on the following day) and although it's something that helps his case, I feel like even without it he would be a fair pick for town.
If anything, I might have expected someone on the M_Z wagon to claim roleblock for town cred because they needed it more.
...Really, I was very surprised I wasn't roleblocked n2, that was the biggest reason I thought there must be a watcher in the game.
As an aside, I actually thought D2 that Palmar could have been softing watcher it with his references to a 'slam dunk' (which suggested to me that perhaps he was watcher, had watched Alakaslam, and had caught M_Z roleblocking), but it became clear that wasn't the case or he would have outed the check N2 for the sure win. I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock. And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game. Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever. I think your actions on day 2 made sense as scum. It was close to switching the lynch over and would have been enough to save sloosh, if gobble was there. In that case it would have worked hugely in your favor. But it didn´t work out for you. I don´t think I would have voted sloosh solely because of Amiko´s case. I still thought that MZ was the better lynch until sloosh put out a defense that contradicted with the one point that I thought could point towards him being town.
He shouldn't need to think that he wouldn't have voted sloosh solely based on Amiko's case. If he's town then he KNOWS that he didn't.
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Sorry for spamming, but I want to reiterate: the scum goal during the sloosh lynch wasn't to save sloosh, it was to give them the best shot at winning the game. Mderg bussing is EASILY the best explanation. If I was scum, my actions at the time had the sole goal of keeping sloosh alive, because there's absolutely no endgame plan. Look beyond the sloosh lynch. See the state of each possible scumteam if their assumed goal is accomplished. There's the one in which the scumteam does nothing with the intent to actually win the game (fuba scum), and then there's the scumteam that has acted with the intent to win the game (mderg scum). Me making it to endgame doesn't invalidate the point I'm making, so don't let that distract you.
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Have you actually read anything in the last few pages? Just wonderin'.
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Oh well, game over. Already know who Haru's gonna vote, since scum made a post that mentioned me.
Might as well ##Vote: mderg
GG mderg, perfect bus. And good plan killing off the only remaining confirmed town that thinks.
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Rofl
Actually, killing Amiko is the worst thing I could have done if I was scum. He's the only one who would have a conversation, however misguided.
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On June 08 2014 17:35 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2014 10:04 fuba wrote:
His responses to me feel so damn transparently scum, it's infuriating. Look at his last responses to me. He says that the motivation for actions is irrelevant, it's only actions that count (I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.). THAT IS 100% SCUM MINDSET. The entire point of a bus is to make it look like you're town through your actions, and hope people don't see the motivation behind it. I have absolutely no idea how you can believe that it makes sense for me as scum to try to switch the lynch in the last few hours when there's no reasonable motivation for it, and yet there's a treasure trove of motivation for mderg to do exactly what he did as scum.
You´re so heavily twisting my words, it shouldn´t be possible. I said the OUTCOME of the actions is irrelevant, if there´s scum motivation behind the actions. Like where the hell did I say that the motivation behind your actions don´t matter. Just find any quote.
Answered this before you even asked it: "(I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.)"
Regardless of the outcome your action and motivation were still the same and you weren´t instantly scumread for it. Because who would make a ballsy play like that as scum? It just seems so risky as scum that it can actually be kinda safe to do.
The likelihood of the desired outcome is taken into consideration when deciding whether to do something or not. If I was scum, I had little reason to believe I could actually switch the lynch, and no reason to do it even if I did. Both MZ and SlOosh were going to be lynched, since everyone found them both scummy regardless of the others' alignment. Sloosh was going to die no matter what. The net result after days 2 and 3 was going to be one dead sloosh and one dead MZ. Why would I put my neck out, and drag gobble into a last-minute vote that would make him pretty certainly the day 4 lynch, when I could just bus sloosh and gain towncred? There is no net gain for scum|fuba pushing the MZ mislynch. The net benefits of scum|mderg bussing sloosh are shown in the progression of the game up to this point.
And the scum motivation behind your actions should be clear. Saving a scum helps even if he´s likely to be lynched the next day.If your plan worked, you´d have been at 3 scum against 6 town meaning you´d need 2 mislynches to win the game.
False. It doesn't help if it forces your entire team to out themselves as scum in order to pull off the mislynch, and if sloosh is going to be lynched anyway (as he most certainly was). Scum play to win the game, not just to save one of their allies. It's the reason that bussing exists. Your play makes sense as scum that knew sloosh was going to be dead by the end of D3, mine does not.
Also I don´t know about gobble, maybe he even posted in the scum qt that day and just forgot to vote or something.
Absolutely possible, but regardless of that fact it wouldn't make sense to pile both me and gobble onto MZ because then the entire scumteam has gone balls to the wall to delay a lynch by a single day. Even if gobble was there, which I have assumed he wasn't or he wouldn't have been modkilled for not voting, it wouldn't make sense for the scumteam to go to that extent to merely postpone a lynch. What does make sense is trying to gain as much from the inevitable loss of a teammate as possible, which is what you did.
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It's kinda funny - it turns out that I was right about scum manipulating the sloosh lynch. Only they did it in a way that would best win them the game, instead of trying to cause or prevent the lynch/mislynch.
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Got to the computer lab, and apparently the building is closed until noon. Thanks for the warning, building -_-
I've come to the realization that there are some points that I brought up yesterday that no longer actually matter in my case against mderg. Gonna clarify what no longer matters, and summarize my case.
What no longer matters
- It doesn't matter whether or not scum felt they could divert the sloosh lynch on D2. That is irrelevant, because sloosh was absolutely going to be lynched on D3, then. We lynched sloosh's counterwagon the day after sloosh flipped scum, so why would MZ flipping town cause anyone's suspicions of sloosh to lessen? The answer is that they wouldn't. Therefore, sloosh was going to die, and scum would have tried to benefit from it the best they could.
- The roleblock doesn't matter. If anything, it indicates that mderg is more likely scum because he's claiming to be a VT who's been roleblocked, but he wasn't killed over alakaslam who shared that same status but was participating far less. And his reaction is further evidence against him, because there's no way anyone in the game thought that mderg was going to be medic'd over Amiko. This is a secondary point, however, so even if you disagree with me it doesn't detract from my main point.
Summary of my main point
Yesterday, Amiko and I got caught up discussing whether or not scum thought they could have diverted the lynch, but we weren't thinking about it correctly. The ultimate fact is that diverting the lynch would have been pointless even if it were possible. This is something that scum would have realized and acted on. They knew that MZ and sloosh were going to be lynched in some order on D2 and D3, so they took the opportunity to bus Sloosh on D2 because it is what would most benefit the scum team.
I, on the other hand, tried to switch the lynch to MZ. I've made it really clear why that is pointless as scum. Sloosh was going to be lynched on D3 even if I "succeeded", and even the way it played out in the thread would have required gobble swooping in at the last minute to secure the mislynch, which would have pretty much pinned him as the second scum even if he wasn't modkilled.
Scum control their roleblocks, scum control their death posts. What we know scum lost control of was the sloosh lynch, because sloosh was scum and he was lynched. This is a pivotal moment, and at this point in the game, with only one scum out of me and mderg, you can reduce the entire game to which of us acted as scum in this situation. Attempting to save sloosh would have gained scum nothing, but bussing him definitely helped them.
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I was hoping for some kind of response by now, but I guess I can settle for the lynch being on mderg. One of my final projects is due in a few hours, and the other is due tomorrow at 9am (about 25 hours from now), so it's unlikely I'll have much time to post/respond until a few hours after that (we do critiques, so they might take a while). I'm not really sure how much I could clarify my thoughts, anyway. I think it really does come down to the simple fact that mderg behaved with the knowledge of a scum|sloosh lynch being imminent, and I clearly did not.
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On June 10 2014 00:20 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2014 01:37 fuba wrote:
Got to the computer lab, and apparently the building is closed until noon. Thanks for the warning, building -_-
I've come to the realization that there are some points that I brought up yesterday that no longer actually matter in my case against mderg. Gonna clarify what no longer matters, and summarize my case.
What no longer matters
- It doesn't matter whether or not scum felt they could divert the sloosh lynch on D2. That is irrelevant, because sloosh was absolutely going to be lynched on D3, then. We lynched sloosh's counterwagon the day after sloosh flipped scum, so why would MZ flipping town cause anyone's suspicions of sloosh to lessen? The answer is that they wouldn't. Therefore, sloosh was going to die, and scum would have tried to benefit from it the best they could.
- The roleblock doesn't matter. If anything, it indicates that mderg is more likely scum because he's claiming to be a VT who's been roleblocked, but he wasn't killed over alakaslam who shared that same status but was participating far less. And his reaction is further evidence against him, because there's no way anyone in the game thought that mderg was going to be medic'd over Amiko. This is a secondary point, however, so even if you disagree with me it doesn't detract from my main point.
Summary of my main point
Yesterday, Amiko and I got caught up discussing whether or not scum thought they could have diverted the lynch, but we weren't thinking about it correctly. The ultimate fact is that diverting the lynch would have been pointless even if it were possible. This is something that scum would have realized and acted on. They knew that MZ and sloosh were going to be lynched in some order on D2 and D3, so they took the opportunity to bus Sloosh on D2 because it is what would most benefit the scum team.
I, on the other hand, tried to switch the lynch to MZ. I've made it really clear why that is pointless as scum. Sloosh was going to be lynched on D3 even if I "succeeded", and even the way it played out in the thread would have required gobble swooping in at the last minute to secure the mislynch, which would have pretty much pinned him as the second scum even if he wasn't modkilled.
Scum control their roleblocks, scum control their death posts. What we know scum lost control of was the sloosh lynch, because sloosh was scum and he was lynched. This is a pivotal moment, and at this point in the game, with only one scum out of me and mderg, you can reduce the entire game to which of us acted as scum in this situation. Attempting to save sloosh would have gained scum nothing, but bussing him definitely helped them. I don´t think sloosh would have 100% been lynched the next day. Palmar was heavily pushing the MZ lynch and could have been under pressure because he was scumreading sloosh but still going heavily against that lynch.
The fact that you refuse to admit that sloosh was absolutely guaranteed to be lynched the day after MZ is literally ridiculous. It absolutely confirms you as scum, because the only way you can possibly be town is if facts aren't true.
This is what you're saying scum thought would happen: Most of the thread agrees that sloosh is more suspicious than MZ -> MZ is mislynched -> HEY GUYS! PALMAR IS NOW THE SCUMMIEST PERSON IN THE THREAD!
No. That's absurd. Sqrt please let this fact burrow into your head, because I really don't know how you haven't been convinced by the incredibly solid case I've presented.
How does my reaction serve as evidence against me? I don´t know why slam was killed over me and I can only guess the reasons. Some kind of WIFOM doc save on me was possible, not very likely though. It´s also not like scum had to be that scared of me since I read you as town and my reads weren´t that good in general. The only reason to kill me would have been that I looked townie. And you can always WIFOM that.
I've already said this can be ignored if people don't agree with me. But there's no reason to NK slam ahead of mderg, whatsoever. You say the only reason to kill you would have been that you looked townie. That is my exact point. You were doing townie things, while slam was not doing much of anything at all. The fact that he was killed over you is easily explained by the fact that scum rarely NK themselves.
You act like scum somehow has some divine knowledge about how the next days will play out. There was no reason scum would have seen that while town couldn´t. The only difference was that scum knew sloosh would flip scum while MZ would flip town. But the flip didn´t seem to have an impact on the following day. So why would scum realize that beforehand while town didn´t realize it until days after that?
Everything I've explained is easily derived from the information we KNOW FOR A FACT that scum would have had at the time. I've already spelled out why sloosh was guaranteed to be lynched from the scum perspective. In what world does Amiko stop pushing for a sloosh lynch after MZ flips town? MZ flipping town WOULD HAVE HAD NO IMPACT ON TOWN'S VIEW OF SLOOSH! Sloosh was either dead D2, or the following day. And you fucking knew it.
"Why would scum realize something before town? They only have extra information."
Perfect reasoning from "town" mderg.
Also why would you reduce the entire game to only one situation?
"I´ve looked more townie in one part of the game, so we should only look at that part of the game" to paraphrase it.
Because it's a reasonable thing to do. If you can't agree that the sloosh lynch was a pivotal moment in the game, you're confirming what I said in the response above. You're denying undeniable facts because if you admit that they're true, then you have to admit that you're scum. So I repeat, again,: SQRT: Please actually think instead of just saying "Fuba scum gg", because this is the single best case I've ever made, and it's possible because I know without a shadow of a doubt that mderg is scum.
I've been trying to reword my case to make it clearer, but it's impossible to explain it any better than I already have. If you vote me over mderg, then you're agreeing with him that 1) scum have more information, but they can't/don't use that to their advantage, 2) scum's goal is to save their scumbuddies, not win the game, 3) town would have lynched Palmar over sloosh after mislynching MZ. Those are just off the top of my head, but they're pretty damn significant.
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That was my last post before the lynch. Good luck Haru, I'm sure you'll make the right choice.
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EPT
