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On May 13 2014 12:23 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2014 12:19 Eden1892 wrote:
The clearest explanation for ahswtini's sudden shift, in my opinion, is that the idea that we're lynching between ahs and me works out well for ahs. town!ahs, after having stated explicitly that bunnies is the top suspect, would be back to pushing on bunnies today instead of dropping it completely without any explanation, or at least would make some sort of effort to explain the change of heart on bunnies's guilt. scum!ahs, assuming I'm right and there are four mafia left, is quite content to make it a lynch between ahs and me, knowing only one more mislynch is necessary to get the win. scum!ahs is content with this because ahs's teammate will vote to kill me as well, and all the mafia need is one town player to misstep and vote me for it to be all over with.
I think the mafia team are clearly ahswtini and Yell0w. I don't think Epishade wants Yell0w today, so in order to make this work...
##UNVOTE
##VOTE ahswtini Why would there be four mafia left? We have lynched 2.
Lol, oops
I meant there were four total mafia as opposed to three (which is the only other number that fits the setup). Meaning there are two left like you said and we're at LYLO.
ahs is content with that because the mafia need one more ML which means they only need one townie to be wrong. Those are good odds for the mafia. Town!ahs I think would show a lot more urgency and would either continue pushing the bunnies case or explain the sudden drop. scum!ahs doesn't care because if you or me or Epishade gets it wrong, or even if we're all right and voting for mafia but not all on the same target, they win.
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dravernor and dfs were scumreading me or at least not townreading me from day one. You're explicitly forcing the data to fit your preordained conclusion in lieu of looking at the more likely alternatives, because you're scum and you know your teammates' townreads and scumreads look awful for you now, as they're wont to look this late in the game.
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And I haven't pushed the same person all the way through. I was suspicious of Yell0w for a good part of day 1, backed off of him for day 2 and some of day 3, got back on his case going into the end of d3 and d4 and I haven't backed off since. I've been reassessing my reads in light of new data in every sense of the phrase. More spin from you.
What was your case on bunnies in the first place and how could you so easily have abandoned it? What changed? You keep speaking in generalities. I'm speaking in very concrete specifics. You've been speaking in generalities the whole way because it's allowed you to be flexible with who you scumread and townread, because you're afraid of being pinned to a specific position and forced to defend it, because you're scum.
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You and Yell0w keep using this terrible argument that your position in the vote wagon matters. It doesn't, at all. What matters is to what extent your words -- how much you campaign for a particular lynch by recruiting people to join it and arguing against opposing wagons -- match your vote. It matters because mafia are scared of being wrong and aren't loud about their answers as a result, where townies dgaf about being wrong and subsequently are loud about trying to get their chosen targets killed. This is mafia 101. And I've clearly and unambiguously worked harder to get my chosen targets lynched and unapologetically pushed to get support for my kill choice, whereas you and Yell0w both have been wishy-washy and hiding in the background for the entire game, only pulled to the front when questioned by people like me trying to figure out who the mafia are.
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Seconding Epishade here. I think it's pretty obvious where my views are anyway, and while I normally support nighttalking I think in this case it's just going to create WIFOM without actually being illuminating.
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Are either of you the parity cop? Godfather and miller flips make me think there has to be one
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Nah I was just asking because I thought for sure there was a parity cop in the game and I wanted to save myself some time. I'd have believed either of you claiming it. Looks like we don't have one though.
So because all of us have been townie I decided to look at our caught mafia's reads to see if I got anything. Let me know if you need specific links for reference to any of my claims here.
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Evolution of dravernor's reads on the three of us, plus her partner dfs
DAY 1
- Epishade and bunnies are top two scum, but more likely Epishade
- Eden looks scummy for throwing votes around
- bunnies is top town read due to tonal changes, Epishade still most likely scum, on fence about Eden
- votes Epishade
DAY 2
- Epishade still top scum read, "paranoid" about how town bunnies is being, no read about Eden
- Epishade STILL top scum read, on fence about bunnies and Eden, dfs probably town
DAY 3
- bunnies is town, Epishade is STILL SCUM, Eden maybe scum, dfs town
- Guess what she said about Epishade, still seems to like bunnies but thinks she's being weird, still looking at me funny for moving vote around, dfs still town but hard to read
CONCLUSION: Occam's Razor says it's bunnies, her treatment of bunnies is eerily parallel to her treatment of dfs and her treatment of Epishade is like her treatment of me, but more blatant. She wasn't setting me up to bus her from Day One and she DEFINITELY wasn't setting up Epishade for it.
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Evolution of dfs's reads on the three of us, plus his partner dravernor
DAY 1
- says everyone is on scum list until proven otherwise but implies bunnies has proven otherwise
- bunnies makes the most sense, all three of us are the thread's "Big 3"
- bunnies most town person, no reads given on me, Epishade or dravernor
- no comment on bunnies or Epishade, says me and dravernor are null
DAY 2
- names Epishade as suspect, no comment on bunnies, dravernor or me
DAY 3
- bunnies is town
DAY 4
[...]
CONCLUSION: The only thing to take away is a townread on bunnies. Treatment of dravernor is nonexistent, treatment of me and Epishade is largely nonexistent too, just some suspicion thrown at us here and there.
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I think based on this, Epishade is almost certainly town. I don't see how scum!dravernor could think it a good play to keep harping on scum!Epishade with her relatively sparse posts throughout the first few days. She has to know she wouldn't get any credit for it if Epishade were lynched/shot and flipped scum. The more reasonable explanation is that she was hoping for Epishade to get lynched as town. dfs is a cypher but what little we have points more toward Epishade being town than bunnies imo.
As individuals I think all three of us have been pretty townie the whole game, which is why I went to what our known mafia players said about each of us. That data points most clearly to bunnies.
I'm also a little leery of bunnies asking us both for cases, like she's confirmed town and we have to convince her we're innocent. Acknowledging that this might be confirmation bias because I already think she's the last mafia, this still doesn't sit well with me. It seems like she's wanting Epishade and me to make cases for her so that she can justify whichever vote she ends up making. Epishade responded with strong casework which I don't see a mafia player feeling the need to do.
##VOTE 27ninjabunnies
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On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So, Eden, I'm glad you brought up the reads that dfs and dravernor typed over their days here, and I was actually going to use them on my case against you.
So for dravernor, he put high suspicion on me and Epishade for most of his reads, but then you just get fenced the entire time. You were pretty much avoided in both Dravernor's and Dfs reads,, and I feel as that is usually a mafia play to ignore one of their partners completely.
That's wrong. dravernor listed you and Epishade really early in D1 as top scum reads, but then did a strange 180 on you based on what I could best determine to be a change in your tone(?) and listed you as top town. From there she kept waffling between "on the fence about bunnies" and "bunnies is town," in parallel with her read on dfs; from Day 2 onward anytime she townread dfs she townread you and anytime she was on the fence about dfs she was on the fence about you as well. Looking at the profile of this mafia so far, clearly the last mafia is one of the more talkative players, someone who's been very involved and active with the town. It's hard for me to believe that the more quiet mafia players wouldn't townread their active talker to give that talker more support. And while it's true dfs didn't talk much about me, where dfs did talk about me he mainly focused on picking at what I was saying and subtly discrediting some of my pushes (calling them "weird" or "hard to read"). This doesn't fit the profile of a quiet mafia player supporting his active partner's efforts to steer town conversation in a given direction. He didn't do the same thing to you.
On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
As for me asking cases on both of you, I want to see if there is any connection you place between yourself and the mafia we have lynched. I find it odd that Eden basically bws the vote on me after epishade thinks its most likely me.
That's pretty easy. Epishade is obviously town because dravernor and dfs kept insisting he was mafia all the time. There's no way the mafia just openly discredit their frontman so frequently and consistently. So Epishade is definitely town. Then you can make a reasonable case against both of us because dravernor and dfs weren't super-committal in their positions on either of us, but I come out a decent but not incredible amount ahead because dravernor and dfs spent a lot of time subtly discrediting me and townreading/supporting you. Again, mafia don't openly discredit their frontman, and they tend to avoid subtly throwing doubt on the frontman, too. It's easy once the frontman is lynched just to go "Oops, he seemed town, I misread him" and move on. There's plenty of scum-sided motivation to townread the frontman, very little to discredit the frontman whether openly or subtly.
That doesn't really address my concern though. You even called me out for "bandwagoning" you (which clearly isn't the case, I laid out my logic and it's distinct from Epishade's), but you haven't made a substantial argument either way yet. Every response that goes by without your own casework solidifies in my mind the idea that you're the last mafia and you're trying to feel out both of us by getting us to write cases before you decide who you want to try to kill.
On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
I would also like to point out some of the votes. I basically led the lynch on dravernor. Also, Eden and Epishade both voted for dravernor and dfs (though it took more time for Eden to vote on either than it did Epishade).
This is also false. You were the first vote on dravernor out of us, sure, but I did more to get dravernor lynched than you did for sure. I called out Yell0w for trying to get an alternate wagon going and was pretty vocal about pushing people to stay on the dravernor lynch. I was more hesitant to kill dfs, but I stand by my argument at the time -- if both of my major scumreads at the time were happily lining up to kill dfs, of course I wasn't going to kill dfs if I could avoid it. In the end I killed dfs though.
On May 16 2014 01:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Also, I don't think it's Epishade here (which I'll explain more in my later post). When the vote was being led on Dravernor, Epishade was voting for dfs. If Epishade was mafia here, I think he would try to vote on someone outside of his partners, not bus both of them, so therefore my top case will most likely be on Eden.
You say this, but all three of us voted for mafia on both turns mafia died. I don't think this is a great point for or against anyone.
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On May 16 2014 05:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So looking at votes, dravernor also voted for epishade, and never voted for Eden. Possible mafia protecting mafia partner?
Also, I was first to go on dravernor, while Eden went on Meat, who seemed pretty town.
But then again, Epishade voted meat after Eden went on Meat.
Eden also didnt vote dfs until the last second, but epishade voted before.
That first point is such a laughable reach. dravernor never went on you, either. We already talked about the order of the lynch, you're piggybacking town!Yell0w's wrong point from the previous cycle. It doesn't matter when you got on board a lynch, it matters how hard you pushed for that lynch. I pushed it harder than you. To say you parked your vote on dravernor and left would be overstating it, but not by a lot; I'm not surprised at all that you're taking this angle, it's reeking of "See, I look good!" Not buying it.
On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So, after reading through the filter of Eden, I actually like him. and that's scary. And I was gonna say this:Even though you are from Louisiana, sorry bud, but you are mafia. And here is why.- but I can't find any good reasons for why he is mafia.
On May 16 2014 05:54 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Also, I think yell0w died in the night over me because he was pushing on eden over epishade, and I wasnt sure between epishade and eden who it was.
My read has changed.
##Unvote
##Vote: Eden
That didn't take very long. I'm not convinced you're actually trying to find the last mafia from this display. I'd expect you to be worried about dying regardless of your alignment, but if you really were town I'd expect better effort than this. All I'm getting out of this is that you're desperate not to die, not that you're genuinely scumhunting.
On May 16 2014 07:11 27ninjabunnies wrote:
That's where you are wrong. Dravernor read me as scum, so you have no substantial evidence on me.
Your biggest thing on me is that I began posting less. I've already stated reasons for that. And just because I didn't get shot, doesnt mean anything. Jailkeeper was on me 2 nights in a row, which I was impossible to get shot then, therefore mafia placed their shots elsewhere. As for the other nights, I'm not sure why they didn't kill me. I don't know, because I AM NOT MAFIA. The fact that mafia is pushing on me now, is because they think im an easy ml. IM NOT SO GET OFF OF ME.
I believe there is benefit talking in the night, as I stated before. You can get reads off of people who are likely to die in the night. This is super beneficial for town. The only thing I see here is that eden was all like, "Yeah me too, I'm not gonna say anything in the night either." I don't see how that is beneficial to finding mafia.
And your reasons on Eden are pointless as well.
I honestly think you and Eden are both just pulling nothing out of a magical hat that doesn't even work.
I AM TOWN, you need to reconsider this before you let mafia win.
This is ridiculous.
This first part is factually incorrect, dravernor didn't scumread you beyond the halfway point of D1. Meanwhile she scumread Epishade the whole game and kept fence-sitting about me in her hard reads while softly accusing me or otherwise casting doubt on me with her other posts.
I don't know where that quote comes from, but I never said that. I talked plenty during the nights in this game, I just held back during the last night phase because I wanted to avoid WIFOM circlejerks.
This is a pretty straightforward solution. I'm remotely concerned that I'm still alive here because I've been wrongly townreading Epishade, but here at LYLO he's done nothing to make me think he isn't town. bunnies OTOH has, in my mind, freaked out wildly disproportionately to the actual danger she's facing. There's a full day left to go. Unless she's not planning on being around I don't understand the desperation from a town standpoint. Her reaction is pretty strongly making me think we've got our final mafia in the bag here. I don't see my vote moving at this rate.
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On May 16 2014 08:40 Epishade wrote:
I disagree with Eden about Bunny freaking out disproportionately. I don't think that indicates a caught mafia. She has a right to be freaked out about being lynched, but mafia or town regardless would (or rather, should) have the same reaction. If anything that just means she's passionate about the game. I wouldn't indicate that as a particular alignment trait.
I'd agree if we were an hour or two away from the lynch. We still have a day. The meltdown seems really premature. I'm not convinced it's alignment-neutral so far away from the lynch, seems like a townie would stay calm and try to make a more compelling case against her scum read. Currently her vote is on me because Yell0w suspected me (WIFOM), in direct contradiction to a big post she made explaining why she thinks I'm more town than you. This doesn't read like the logical, collected bunnies we've seen in this game to me.
On May 16 2014 08:49 Epishade wrote:Ok, question for Eden though about asking about Parity cop. Show nested quote +On May 15 2014 17:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Nah I was just asking because I thought for sure there was a parity cop in the game and I wanted to save myself some time. I'd have believed either of you claiming it. Looks like we don't have one though.
Erm, why would you have believed either of us claiming it if we had? Wouldn't that just mean you don't really care which one of us gets lynched? Say Bunny said that she was cop. Does that mean you'd believe her and just vote for me?
I don't mean that if she just threw out there that she was the parity cop I'd go "okay, I believe this 100%, lynch Epishade gg." She'd have to show how she breadcrumbed her scans, acted in accordance with her scan data, etc. But if the claim generally checked out then yes, even despite how innocent you've seemed this game, I'd have voted to kill you. Think of it as me asking for roleclaims at LYLO (which where I'm from is standard operating procedure if people haven't claimed yet). I just focused on the parity cop 'cause again, with a godfather and miller in the game it's reasonable to expect there to be one.
Moot point anyway since no one claimed a PR.
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RE: dravernor's reads, here are some handy links.
- First post D1, scumreads Epishade and bunnies.
- Later on D1, scumreads me for moving votes around.
- Later on D1, bunnies flips to top townread. Epishade still scummy. Indecisive about me.
- Votes Epishade. Last D1 post.
- Epishade top scum read, no comment of note on me, has bunnies as "so town" that she's worried about it being genuine.
- Epishade still top scum read, fence-sitting about me and bunnies
- Guess what she said about Epishade lol. she's off the fence about bunnies, calling bunnies town. Thinks I might be scum
- Boner for Epishade confirmed, still thinks bunnies is town, still thinks I'm bad
All of these back up my initial analysis at the top of p67. The conclusion -- that bunnies is mafia -- remains.
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On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote:
Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway.
Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here.
Yell0w dying doesn't point to anything concrete about who's mafia. This is just idle speculation. How would the final mafia know that Yell0w and I would stick on each other? It'd be a huge gamble to assume that we couldn't step back and rethink things. I think Yell0w got shot because no one was willing to lynch him for several days leading up to this final day. At LYLO you want to keep the lynchable people around to maximize your options. Beyond that it's just speculation.
On May 16 2014 09:19 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2014 09:15 Eden1892 wrote:RE: dravernor's reads, here are some handy links. - First post D1, scumreads Epishade and bunnies.- Later on D1, scumreads me for moving votes around.- Later on D1, bunnies flips to top townread. Epishade still scummy. Indecisive about me.- Votes Epishade. Last D1 post.- Epishade top scum read, no comment of note on me, has bunnies as "so town" that she's worried about it being genuine.- Epishade still top scum read, fence-sitting about me and bunnies- Guess what she said about Epishade lol. she's off the fence about bunnies, calling bunnies town. Thinks I might be scum- Boner for Epishade confirmed, still thinks bunnies is town, still thinks I'm badAll of these back up my initial analysis at the top of p67. The conclusion -- that bunnies is mafia -- remains. This doesnt point to me being mafia. This just points to that if I died in the night and flipped town, dravernor might have some credibility and not get lynched. Notice how he said "thinks" the entire time, but never had a legit scum read on you. She basically ignored you AND dfs in her reads.
I already explained how it does on p67, you're just insisting that it doesn't without refuting the logic behind it. You're wrong about dfs -- between those links and my analysis it should be clear how.
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On May 16 2014 09:28 Epishade wrote:
@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not.
Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose.
Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying.
There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense.
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I don't get where you're coming from on this at all, Epishade. That's not what I said. I was sure there was a parity cop in the game given the godfather and miller flips, and so I started by asking if either of you were the parity cop. Yes, someone could hypothetically have set themselves up to be able to fake claim parity cop on the final day, but you're really underestimating how difficult it would be to actually do this.
It's a pointless hypothetical anyway since no one claimed parity cop. All the data points to you being town and bunnies being mafia. That's what my vote is built on and why it's currently staying on bunnies.
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On May 16 2014 12:08 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So epishade willing to take his vote off a reconsider things makes me think he is more town than eden.
So I'm pretty sure I'm keeping my vote where it is at, but I will be posting more.
I'm going to go through the filter on Eden, and see if there is anything I can find, I'll post in the morning.
This isn't really sound logic, I'm sure all of us are constantly considering and reconsidering things. The votes being where they are doesn't really matter.
And a reminder here, you said this earlier:
On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote:
So, after reading through the filter of Eden, I actually like him. and that's scary. And I was gonna say this:Even though you are from Louisiana, sorry bud, but you are mafia. And here is why.- but I can't find any good reasons for why he is mafia.
Obviously you can change your mind about this, but I expect you to explain what changed if you reread the filter and decide I'm not town. If you can't do this to my satisfaction then there's no way my vote's moving.
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No, it doesn't, it just speaks to the data. We know that the last mafia has been active in town discussion, so we know the quiet mafia we already caught wouldn't openly discredit their teammate, because the whole point of having a mafia frontman involved in the town is to be able to steer discussion in a particular direction, and constantly discrediting your frontman hinders his ability to do this. dravernor and dfs continually scumread and suspected Epishade, so we know Epishade isn't the frontman, and thus is town. The choice is therefore pretty clear from my point of view. I would expect Epishade to be the one to be rethinking things the most, because while I think the data does speak more clearly to me being town than you, I acknowledge it's not clear-cut like it is with Epishade.
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fixing first sentence for clarity
** No, Epishade's relative willingness to move his vote compared to me doesn't speak to either of our alignments, it just speaks to the data.
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Yes, mafia will sometimes bus their partners, and in this case we know for a fact mafia did bus their partners. But not all busing is the same; busing isn't always beneficial and often it's detrimental. Clearly since all three of us have been pretty townie for the whole game, busing served a big benefit -- the last mafia looked very pro-town heading into the final day.
I don't see where there's a similar benefit to dravernor and dfs constantly scumreading their frontman. The whole point of having a mafia player that talks a lot and tries to steer the town's direction is to be successful in steering it. Having two people who are constantly saying "nope this guy is definitely mafia don't listen to him" is a huge thorn in the frontman's side, especially in a game with only 13 players, because if any of the town players think the frontman is playing weirdly on top of the teammates suspecting him, the frontman has no chance of steering the town anywhere and the whole purpose of having a frontman is defeated.
So no, I think it makes much more sense that Epishade is town and the mafia were throwing dirt at him than it does that you're town and the mafia were intentionally sabotaging their own attempts to steer discussion just to win 3p LYLO (which is the only realistic explanation for how dravernor and dfs could have acted the way they did and Epishade could be scum).
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I'm not twisting your words, but if you're arguing that dravernor's and dfs's suspicions aren't pertinent to your townread on Epishade, then I'm curious what it is that you are townreading him for, because for me that's the key piece of information that clears him. There's other stuff, like the fact that he and I were digging in so hard over the past few days to reread the thread, bring up relevant information and try to find the mafia, but the main thing that points to it for me is what the dead mafia said.
I don't think I get your last paragraph here either. You're saying it "could" be that I'm mafia and my teammates were instructed to throw suspicion on me so I could bus the hell out of both of them. Is that what you think happened, though? Sounds like a nitpicky question, but qualifying/distancing language, like using "could" when you mean "did," is typical of people who are being dishonest and don't want to get pinned down into a concrete position they don't feel comfortable supporting. If you're going to argue that theory, don't come at me with that "could" crap, we don't have time for dancing around like this.
And if it is what you think happened, then I think Occam's Razor is the way to go here. Was there extreme dissociation between the quiet mafia and the frontman mafia, such that the quiet mafia were actively calling their own frontman suspicious, sacrificing their faction's ability to steer discussion in the far-flung hope that should it ever get to 3p LYLO the frontman would be clear by way of busing his teammates? Or am I town and the mafia were just trying to discredit me before I lynched them? Obviously the latter.
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I pushed you on the could/did thing because I want your theory for what happened on the record, we don't have time to dance around. When you say "X could happen" then I have to ask "so did it?" Otherwise you haven't actually given your position, you're just throwing out hypotheticals.
Knowing now that it's your belief that I'm mafia, that I instructed dravernor and dfs to scumread me, and that I sold both my teammates up the river and essentially set them up to be pinatas for me to knock down to prove my towniness, I'm just gonna Occam's Razor this shit again. Simplest explanation is the best. If the choice is between "Eden is mafia and has been orchestrating this grand conspiracy from the first day where he talks a lot and tries to steer discussion while his teammates throw dirt at him, then he buses them at an opportune moment to ride off into the sunset with the victory" and "Eden is town and eventually helped catch the mafia," it's not a choice at all, the second explanation is much more sensible.
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EPT
