On April 03 2014 10:04 Cephiro wrote:I personally think the mayor matters quite a bit. Both whom is chosen and what that mayor's choices are.
In general I think the best play is to either vote a strong townread the mayor (to ensure we will gain the order we want), or then go for a player that we are in general unsure about to possibly gain information, depending on if they'll follow the requests of the majority of townspeople or go against it.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 03:48 Balla24 wrote:
I think we order the cells in order from weakest mafia cell to strongest mafia cell, that way we get the easy mafia lynches out of the way faster and give ourselves more of a chance to win faster and a lot of time to simmer with the stronger players as mafia (rayn, Holyflare, Palmar just looking at this)
I would probably put 4 -> 5 -> 3 -> 1 -> 2 (havent put much thought into it which is the strongest yet just first impressions)
I am a bit curious about the logic behind this. Does this mean you are confident that we will be able to find out the suspected strong scum players if given enough time, rather than enable the mafia to control the town even better? I also don't think ranking players at this point in the game for their potential threats is necessarily the best way to go about it, when there is still plenty of discussion ahead which may actually get us somewhere, rather than go about it guesstimating. How I see it is if we are certain to have found scum in a cell, we should lynch that cell early on.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 04:08 prplhz wrote:
i think it would be a great idea if people mainly focused on their own cell. that doesn't mean that you shouldn't tell the thread if you have reads on other people but if you are unfocused it makes very good sense to look at your own cell simply because you have a 50/50 chance there.
As was pointed out short after, this is not a very good idea. After we've had a mayor decide the order however, pretty much all attention should be on the cell that is being lynched, playing the game a match at a time and then using the information from the previous rounds to our advantage in the following ones.
General note: Not liking the people who are talking about which order we should lynch the cells in at the start of the game, such as Sentinel.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2014 04:22 raynpelikonoshi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 04:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On April 02 2014 04:05 prplhz wrote:On April 02 2014 04:02 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On April 02 2014 03:57 Koshi wrote:On April 02 2014 03:44 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Also, why do I have to get stuck with Palmar
I don't understand this. Explain the not happy face.
Palmar is probably the player I have the hardest time reading in this game. It's going to be hard trying to figure the scum in my own cell, even.
seriously? it's 50/50, right? how can that be so worrying?
Because lynching by coinflip is such a popular strategy on this site, right?
And then kush is half of the other one lol...
So my very first impression:
If I wasn't in this group (let's just say, Group 6), my first-guess order would be 3 -> 4 -> 2 -> 5 -> 1.
I think I'll have an easier time with reading the people in the last two groups - I've played with them more recently, or they're just more straightforward overall. Especially rayn, koshi and gum.As a member of group 3 I still like that order because I don't have to play for a long time, although Coag's not too unpredictable, kush you can usually see once you wade past all the bullshit, and Palmar... I'll think of something.
Group 2 is my neutral people - Holyflare is the only one I've had experience with. Group 4 really depends on how erratic Slam becomes over the course of the game.
Red and green, which is it? Do you want the groups with people you have an easy time reading to go before you or do you want to go first? If you can read certain people why don't you want those groups go before you? Why instead offer yourself to go first, as if you read the people you can read correctly and lynch mafia your group will become easier to figure out later as you become obviously town.
I don't get this post Sentinel, it's really messy. What do you want here?
~rayn
The slight contradiction in the above post got pointed out well, but what it made me rethink was my earlier comment about concentrating on the cell up at a time. I still do mostly agree with that notion, but the players that are in the lynched cell should provide their analysis on others before dying off, as it could give us crucial information to continue with.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2014 04:42 LSB wrote:The most important feature of cell mafia is the ability to cull inactive players as soon as possible. This is interesting because this allows the game to maintain a level of activity and analysis demanded for the full duration, rather than it being a game between lurkers at lylo.
Activity is very town favored because it is easier to find mafia if everyone has to speak, than throw darts at lurkers.
I am going to rank players based on what I remember based on the most recent game in the TL mafia database
A - Active Players, solid contributions and good amount of posts
IL -
Inactive or Lurking players, little thread presence in the last game
This raiting is mainly to determine inactivity. Bold is for emphasis
I didn't look to hard, but if you had at least 8 pages of posts I considered you active and if you had long posts I counted you as active
Cell 1
A - Raynpelikonoshi - Probably the most active player on the forums
A - Gumshoe - Active in A quiet game
A - Steveling
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/311554-surprisingly-normal-mini-mafia-vii?user=Steveling&page=4Cell 2
A Holyflare - Active in LXIII
IL
Tehpoofter - Modkilled for inactivity last game
IL mderg - Inactive last game he played. It was 2 years ago
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/309405-werewolves-invade-teamliquid-ii?user=mdergCell 3
A Palmar - Active in Default Suspicions
IL Sentinel - Self admitted inactive and not in for the long haul
? Coagulation - Kushm4sta is active, but Coag can't post his seal.
Cell 4
A Balla24 - Active in Default Suspicions
A LSB
IL Alakaslam - Pretends to be Chez, but never back it up with analysis.
Cell 5
A Getmoript - Previous Hydra was active
A prplhz - Active in Default supsions
A Cephiro - Active in GMB
If we go by this we see that
Cell 1 and Cell 5 contain all active players.
Cell 2 contains two inactive players
Cell 3/4 contain at least one inactive player.
Based on this, my ideal order would be
2,3,4,5,1. Or 2,3,4,1,5
Ultimentally this data would be best supplimented by seeing day 1 post counts.
Fairly interesting post by LSB, his first post with a clear agenda. While I personally like the idea of being able to cut off the inactives players to start with, once the initial order is decided it cannot be changed. I don't think that the first 48 hours will necessarily tell us enough as for the players activities, and if we have lynch targets for reasons other than inactivity, we should go for those first in my opinion.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 04:47 prplhz wrote:
"unreadable" as in "having them around probably will not give you any information to work with". at the same time lynching into unreadables might give us a good idea about the people left in the town, rather than autolynching someone who claimed scum.
if there's some ezpz town read in a group i think it would make sense to have them around for long, they can help town focus and will not cause a distraction.
I don't really understand the bolded. Lynching into a cell which has almost no interaction with players outside of it, how will that help us find remaining scum or town? Don't get me wrong, I don't want to keep inactives around till endgame, but I don't understand prplhz logic here. How does lynching unreadables -> information about remaining townies? Is there something obvious that I'm missing or is there simply no sense in this follow-up?
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 04:54 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
Actually this "which group to lynch first" is really stupid for the next 40 hours.
Townie points for the person who first tells why.
~rayn
+ townie points for rayn for being the first one to bring this up.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 04:55 prplhz wrote:
well because if we find scum then we'll pick his group first, duh
but it's a good thing to just talk about
I don't really like the way he makes it sound like it was incredibly obvious, but still everyone was eagerly rambling on about the group order up to this point. And the addition about it being a good thing to just talk about? We're here to find mafia, not to just chat. Is discussing group orders the best way for us to find mafia? I doubt it.
I liked getmoript's entry. But then this. This hideous thing, spoilered below.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2014 05:02 getmoript wrote:
So I've skimmed so far.
Cell 1
Raynpelikonoshi--Very tempted to lynch because I can't read Koshi and I don't think Rayn has called me super town yet
Gumshoe--solid player with alright reads generally but pretty obvious as scum
Steveling--???
Cell 2
Holyflare-scum
Tehpoofter--very good player, still adjusting to forum, low volume poster
mderg--?????
Cell 3
Palmar--strong player
Sentinel--I don't really remember him much
Coagulation--Policy lynch option, both lurkers
Cell 4
Balla24--meh
LSB--meh
Alakaslam--likely scum
Cell 5
Getmoript--clearly town, great at endgame, super stronk townie
prplhz--decent player, generally low volume, scummy first post
Cephiro--solid playler
Rayn I'm having a hard time reading Koshi... Why wouldn't he push himself for mayor on D1/0 whatever it is today?
Like Cell 2 is obviously the best first lynch. HF busses as scum and has ok reads as town. I'd love to policy lynch him and under no circumstances should he ever be allowed to mid-late game. Cell 3 should be the third lynch 100%. Palmar is someone who, for lack of a better lynch, we can lynch and then sheep his reads; I'm tempted to move this up to slot 2 because Palmer tends to get worse as time goes on. Cell 4 should probably be the second lynch though because they're mostly unreadable and I want to lynch Alakaslam so that makes that pretty easy. Cell 1 is clearly next because me and rayn usually click on things and in case town hasn't won by then me and Rayn should easily be able to finish it off or I'll hammer Rayn to win the game for town.
2->4->3->1->5 is clearly the best pattern and me/Cav should 100% be the mayor. Like it's obvious, I refuse to let anyone else be the mayor and will policy lynch anyone who goes against me as mayor.
This makes so little sense it makes me cringe. Classifying the players in the 5 cells at this point, including some he has no idea about is just stupid. It has no basis. It's also extremely contradictory. Why does getmoript what Cell 2 lynched first when he is so sure about Holy? The way he explains himself I understand that he reads HF well if he's scum, and that HF can be an asset to town when town. Why would you want to get rid of a player like that early on? Policy lynching at start with no proper reasoning? Just... what. The other cells have reasons that make a bit more sense, but I find it contradictory that getmoript whom earlier called rayn out for not having realized why the order discussion is not very fruitful and liking prp's post, now goes straight into talking about order himself as his first agenda, when half of the players in the game haven't even showed up yet.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 05:12 LSB wrote:
However I think it is pretty foolhardy to determine the order of five groups by reads based. It would be a much better bet to hedge for activity.
The post before this where LSB explains what rayn is likely to trying to hint at I like. I don't however like how much he's pushing the activity ordering. Just as 48 hours gives you a limited amount of information readwise, it also gives a limited amount of information activity-wise. (Personal opinion.) If there are available reads that are clear enough, I'd always take them before an inactivity policy lynch. Not to mention that while deciding the order, one has to account for the new information that inevitably comes up before reaching a certain group.
Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 05:17 prplhz wrote:
just wut
why the frig you want the guy who busses as scum and has good reads as town to be out of the game as soon as possible?
+ for pointing out the exact thing same about getmoript as I thought of when I read it.
General note: The back and forth between raykosh+getmo starts looking like it'll become an unreadable clusterfuck, I hope not.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2014 05:38 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 05:37 getmoript wrote:On April 02 2014 05:34 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
geript explain to me why you talk about policy lynching people in a game where policy lynching is not needed & is awful?
~rayn
1. Because I like to policy lynch
2. Because the only flips we get are lynched players and quite frankly, after seeing palmer scumteam w/ DP and other things I want to flip palmar because he had very good reads that should be considered later on in the game. Knowing him as town is a HUGE boon.
3. Policy lynching HF is fun
So by #2 you would allow scum to only have to win two rounds in exchange for knowing Palmar is town?
Super bad post by getmoript. #1 #3 are just trolling and/or being stupid. #2 is just bad. So you want to lynch palmar because if he's town, you're just gonna believe his reads and trust in them and win the game like that, and if he's scum, then yay 1 scum down? Just no, no no no. Horrible reasoning for wanting to lynch a player that hasn't even posted at that point of the game.
General note: Does gumshoe post anything but useless filler?
General note 2: Could say almost the same about mderg.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 02 2014 06:33 getmoript wrote:Show nested quote +On April 02 2014 06:23 raynpelikonoshi wrote:
How about you tell me why do you want to lynch townies to prove their reads good instead of lynching scum which results to the same, geript?
~rayn
Me wanting to lynch HF is 100% not alignment indicative and you know that. We both know he can bus hard as scum and we both know his town game is decent. Me wanting to lynch him is more me wanting to lynch him. Like, obviously if I have a scumread on one of the other two, then I'm going to lynch my scumread. That's not going to make me want to policy lynch HF anyless. More than policy lynching him though, I 100% don't like him living past day 1; he's fully capable of pied pipering the town into stupidity as scum and one that I don't trust allowing him to live.
As for policy lynching palmar, it's something that I think is useful but that really depends on where the game is at when he comes up for lynch. Like if we're up 2-0 and I don't have a good read on any of those 3, then I want to lynch Palmer because we get to know that his opinions are trustworthy for the last 2 lynches. If it's 1-1, then it's a good bit tougher. Obviously if it's 0-2 then you go to lynch scum. It's something I've been thinking of since he joined but knew would depend on who's in his group and what the situation would be and (of course my alignment). It's by no means a flat out, LYNCH PALMER WITH FIRE TO GET INFORMATION UNDER EVERY CIRCUMSTANCE POLICY LYNCH. It's a strategy to maximize information but clearly situation dependent on where/when his group comes up and where we're sitting int he game.
~g
More text from getmoript I don't like. Main point why: Given the confidence in his own play clearly shown in his posts so far, why is he 1) so afraid of the possibility of a scum holyflare, when he's shown confidence in understanding holyflare's play earlier. 2) So dependant on getting "good information" from Palmar like he's some sort of god-level-player who will without question be correct and worth trusting if he flips town. Even the best players can be wrong. The thing is, we're not here to play "sheep the most experienced players", especially not with the amount of confidence getmoript is showing off. Which is exactly why I find it so weird that he insists on these two things.
Closure note: This is going to take long. Posting my thoughts as I catch up, here's up to end of P15. Small break.
EPT
IS ONE
