EPTlast game was fun but i died too early
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
last game was fun but i died too early | ||
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theDragoon
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theDragoon
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On February 17 2014 08:37 OnceKing wrote: What do you think of the Amiko lynch and what are your reads on everyone involved? Sorry for the late reply, had a long day today and just got back home. The first vote cast on Amiko was by OnceKing with the main reason being he didn't like his initial post. I agree with him on that, but I don't think it's enough to warrant a lynch on Amiko. What I didn't like about Amiko's initial post was there wasn't really anything of substance, his town claim is unnecessary since at that point anybody can claim town and it doesn't mean anything. The vibe I'm getting from that is that he wants eyes away from him. I really don't like this line from Amiko: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- I think most of us are new to the forum mafia game and sometimes mistakes can get a townie lynched (happened to me my last game). I just don't really see how we can use experience to evaluate anybody's alignment, if that's what Amiko means by evaluate. This line doesn't really give me a scum read on him, I just don't agree with his statement. But from his initial post, I lean very lightly towards a scum read on Amiko. As for others, I'll post a bit more later after I catch up and read through some filters. | ||
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theDragoon
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theDragoon
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After reading through Cavalinho's and OnceKing's posts, I'm starting to be a bit more convinced that Amiko is scum, however with so many inactives I will wait until they start posting more before casting my vote. Scum have a huge incentive to hide right now if Amiko is town. @Lord Tolkien: Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 17 2014 12:46 Amiko wrote: theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho & I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote: I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. | ||
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theDragoon
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OnceKing said: AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? I believe he is correct. Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 18 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote: Pages 4 and 5: This post is super scummy: This post is super towny, which is why I rescinded and said that he's town: Whereas some people find this post by Amiko to be scummy, I think the opposite. I like this post a lot: Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: I don't know what this says about OnceKing's alignment, but the fact that he jumps on Amiko's post is pretty meh in my opinion. Amiko makes, what I consider to be, a good post and onceking focuses on the fact that it's long and has no content? Besides length, none of the posts really have content up to this point...I will say though that I like the fact that Onceking actually provided some conent here. Probably more towny, but still don't like this post overall: Not gonna quote the end of the page, but Cavalinho is securing himself as my top town read based off of how freely he is speaking with regard to the Amiko situation and how openly he is aligning himself with OnceKing. This doesn't mean that I think OnceKing is town, but I don't think that Cavalinho's logic would be so easy to follow if he was mafia. I don't like the first four parts of this post where Robik just labels posts as either scummy or towny without providing any reason why. Can you tell us why you think those posts are scummy/towny? | ||
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theDragoon
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About people thinking too much about exact roles, Lord Tolkien does this as well in one of his latest posts: On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote: I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning He also previously talked about certain players possibly having blue roles, such as him suggesting he's a veteran. I just don't see how it helps us too much focusing on figuring out specific roles, we should be trying to find scum, not trying to figure out game set up and possible roles, there's time for that later. It benefits scum more to try to find out the blue roles more than town. He also says this about discussing roles: I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT) The bolded part I think is a slip and is probably the biggest tell for a scum Lord Tolkien. ##Vote Lord Tolkien | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 18 2014 09:14 OnceKing wrote: More and more I'm growing dissatisfied with the way that Cavalinho is responding to pressure. He's lashing back out at Amiko saying that he's being tunneled upon but I can't agree -- though yes, the bulk of Amiko's case is indeed on Cavalinho he's also discussed other people like LT. Not only that but his actual defenses are just really indignant statements ("You're saying I can't do X? I'm not allowed to say Y?"). I agree that N1k0 has not contributed enough if really at all despite IAmRobik's statement that he has, but neither has Beneather. I can't see any contradiction in N1k0's post, just uncertainty in his vote placement. In addition he himself is now OMGUSing despite talking so much about it being bad earlier... what's up with that? Regarding Cavalinho OMGUSing on N1k0 and not really posting his reason on why he has a scum read on N1k0 is a bit suspicious. At the point where Cavalinho votes for N1k0, he doesn't mention anything to support his scum read on him. Also, I dislike his insults toward Amiko, there's no reason to insult anyone, especially one you think is town. If I'm interpreting it correctly, he's leaning on Amiko being town based on this post: On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote: I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying. I've had a strong town read on Cavalinho up to this point but as others mention some of the scummy actions and posts he's made I'm starting to have second thoughts. Question for Cavalinho: Why did you quickly switch your vote to N1k0 without picking apart N1k0's posts for the contradictions he's made on his post? | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote: Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon? I called it a slip because I wasn't really thinking of the mafia QT and the fact that he mentioned it could imply that he's been using it. I might be reaching with this but that was my thought process behind it. | ||
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Valenius lists his town and mafia reads. The part that struck out to me was his mafia read on IAmRobik and his reason behind it, which he said was “just a gut feeling”. His posts after that are targeted towards Robik since he thought that Valenius was super scummy. He then votes for Robik but I have yet to see his reason for wanting to lynch Robik other than Robik calling him scum. Rather than looking for other scum, Valenius has complete tunnel vision on Robik, not sure if it’s because he panicked that Robik got an accurate read on him or he just OMGUS. I would really like to hear Valenius’ reason to keep his vote on Robik, despite not having a sufficient argument for his scum read. Also, Lord Tolkien made a good point with this: Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. With a mafia read on Valenius, it makes sense that Robik was their target for the night kill. Val’s vote on Robik didn’t gain traction and they saw the opportunity to implicate N1k0 with a mislynch since both players who voted him are now dead. This would also suggest that N1k0 is town if Val is mafia. If Val and N1k0 are scum partners then I don’t think they would have shot Robik since it makes N1k0 look very suspicious.As of now my strongest scum read is Valenius. | ||
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theDragoon
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Can you clarify this part of your post: I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak. It may be late and I'm just tired but I'm having a hard time understanding what you're trying to say there. Specifically the bold part because at the first part it sounds like you're talking as mafia then the part with brackets sound like you're talking town. Also, is it pretty much guaranteed that it's 2 mafia rather than 3? With 7 players remaining it would be difficult to win the game 4v3. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius I don't really have a strong scum read on Beneather because he's posted so little, so there's definitely better lynch targets than him. N1k0 has slightly more analysis than Beneather and some parts do look towny, but some are a little bit scummy. In particular I found that his mentioning of Amiko being godfather was rather scummy (which I previously mentioned) but says later that Amiko's posts swayed him towards a town read on Amiko. He was wrong about his scum read on Cav though, but he does make a decent argument for it. I'm waiting for his next post where he says he'll reply to Amiko, but as of now I'm not getting a strong scum read on him. I've already mentioned my thoughts on Valenius and with OnceKing and LT making their case against him, it's only made my scum read on him stronger. He's also posted very little value despite his number of posts. At this point, I think we need to start looking for scum pairs, if we get the right lynch today it might give us a lot of information on who to lynch on day 3. ##Vote Valenius | ||
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theDragoon
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On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. | ||
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theDragoon
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My reads on IAmRobik were based on what i’ve discussed earlier, his jumping on me when.. please correct me if i’m wrong.. there wasn’t a massive amount of suspicion on me at the time. So you're main reason for having a scum read on IAmRobik is because he jumped on you? He said you were scummy because of this post: + Show Spoiler + This post is super scummy: On February 16 2014 12:21 Valenius wrote: Good evening  I'm heading to bed now, UK Time (03:00), see you all in a bit!He also said the same thing to me + Show Spoiler + Up to this point, there's no scummier post than this one: On February 16 2014 16:06 theDragoon wrote: Nice, we finally got this started, all that early voting made me lol a bit. Gonna hit the sack soon, see ya'll tomorrow The difference between our reactions is night and day, I pretty much dismissed that accusation because there was no substance behind it. Yet, you use that post to fuel your case on Robik being scum, which isn't a good case at all, especially now that we know that Robik was town. You questioned him about that post and you continued to pursue the lynch on him. This is really scummy because up to the point where you cast your vote on Robik, you had no real case towards him being scummy other than him thinking your post was scummy. I think the main reason why you wanted Robik lynched was because he put a little pressure on you and you overreacted, which is something mafia is more likely to do. It also makes sense that he was shot during the night after your lynch attempt on him didn't gain traction. | ||
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theDragoon
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As I stated previously, I have a slight scum read on N1k0, however I have a stronger scum read on Valenius, which is why I voted him. Also, until after I read OnceKing's case against N1k0, I didn't really notice how he mostly piggybacked onto other people's posts without contributing anything original and this does make him look very scummy. I can see that being poor town play and analytical skills or just straight up mafia play. If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3. Mod question: If Beneather doesn’t post and gets modkilled does he still get replaced? | ||
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On February 21 2014 06:45 Valenius wrote: theDragoon, i'm still looking for an answer to this earlier question: OnceKing, LordTolkien: You've both been the most vocal throughout this game so far, yet you've been very quiet for the last half day. What's up? What are you reading on the current situations? I cast my vote on you before I read OnceKing's case on n1k0 and at the time you were far and away the scummiest person remaining. Right now based on what others have said about N1k0 (mainly OK's post) I have both of you as my top scum reads. To answer your question, I am willing to change my vote to n1k0 to have a majority vote on him. | ||
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Regarding N1k0: It's possible the mafia planned to bus him, this likely explains the lack of defense from N1k0 if they had agreed to do this. N1k0’s vote on Beneather can mean two things: 1) Random vote on any random player to throw us off 2) Vote on his teammate to keep as much distance from him and N1k0 It’s more likely to be the first case since the second option is risky if we don’t buy his bluff, however we still have to consider that Beneather is his teammate. At this point I have Beneather as my top scum read. His only posts on day 2 were presenting scum reads on N1k0 and Valenius. He posted this regarding N1k0: First off, N1k0 seems to be most likely scum as he even stated that he has just backpacked on other people's opinions, that is rather scummy as mafia will try to stay in the shadows and just follow other people's and bandwagon a townie lynch. He calls N1k0 scum because he backpacked on other people’s opinion, yet he is doing the exact same thing in this post. Also, the rest of his post has a much larger case against Valenius. From reading it I would think he had a better scum read on Valenius than N1k0, but on his next post he says: Oh I forgot... ##Vote n1k0 As for my town reads I’m very confident that OnceKing and Valenius are town because OnceKing put up the case that pretty much got N1k0 and Valenius got the ball rolling on N1k0's lynch. I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right. | ||
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theDragoon
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##Vote Beneather Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2. | ||
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theDragoon
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@Amiko I want to convince you that you are wrong because if I don't die at night and you guys get a mislynch on me, we will lose. This post will be me explaining myself based on the points you made, so I will be using the same titles you used. Day1: Voting for a blue The quote you put on their is entirely out of context. Here is the entire post: + Show Spoiler + On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1? Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it? saving a mafia There were several people who could have saved Cavalinho, including Cavalinho himself. At that point I don't think people were thinking of who can they save because it doesn't make any sense to try saving someone who isn't a confirmed town. Even with a strong town read on someone there is always that element of doubt that they could be scum. I also posted that I was starting to have doubts on Cav here: + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=13#248 I think you forgot to mention that I had a slight scum read on n1k0 at the exact same post I voted for Tolkien. I voted Tolkien because I had a better scum read on him than I had on n1k0 since n1k0 was lurking and there wasn't much in the way of posts to get a good read on him. Short Memory/Following the Scum Did it ever occur to you that I changed my opinion on LT because of the way LT was posting? I may not have explicitly stated it by posting but in my personal notes I was leaning towards LT being town at that point. You can say the same about OnceKing, who we know is town, he also switched from scum LT to town LT. You're reaching really hard here for nothing. The Choice Not Taken I think I'm repeating myself here, I voted for the guy I had a better scum read on. How is jumping the bandwagon the pride-saving move? I had a read on Valenius, which I thought was 100% correct and I wanted to be right about this. I wanted to be the only one who got it right. Given the number of votes on n1k0, I was willing to stand out away from the pack just so I can say I was right about Val (at this point I can still be right about Val). I was also willing to switch to n1k0 if the votes were close, which I explained in a previous post saying that n1k0 red flip = more likely Val is green, but not vice versa. A Decent Argument What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. I will be posting my thoughts on other players hopefully later on in the night or maybe after, if I survive. This is definitely shaping up to be a pretty epic mafia game and I hope to be a part of the final day. | ||
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Amiko I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others. He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred. Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill. N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town. Valenius Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case. Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this. Lord Tolkien Scummiest thing he's done is the formal lynching proposal, what better way for mafia to control the game than to propose something like this? During day 1, other players had scum reads on him because of his actions, yet n1k0 reads him town. He also kept mentioning specific roles, as if he's trying to figure out what the blue roles are and who they can be, only mafia would be interested in this on day 1. I don't like how he casts doubt on himself being town, saying stuff like "It's possible I'm mafia". It's not that scummy but why do this? I want to believe you are town but you are putting doubt in my head. -- I did this rather quick and I don't like quotes and links to posts where I got this info. I'll post something more detailed if I survived, I just wanted to post my thoughts examining each remaining player as mafia since at this point, it's equally likely any of the remaining players could be mafia. | ||
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I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend. Night 1: IAmRobik Night 2: OnceKing Night 3: Lord Tolkien IAmRobik On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1. OnceKing He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them. Lord Tolkien He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this: On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote: I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum. I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko. In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia. As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia. | ||
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theDragoon
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@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them? When I voted for Valenius, OnceKing had yet to post his case on n1k0 and at the time all the cases on n1k0 were rather weak compared to the ones for Valenius. So I was fairly confident I was right, I only started having doubts after I read OnceKing's post and by the time I read it the majority of the votes were on n1k0. Now is the time to get the lynch right on Valenius. I DO NOT want to lose to a mafia who completely played us all in day 2. I'll be so pissed that he gets away because we instantly label him town as soon as n1k0 flipped red. It would mean he completely outplayed us all and I'm not gonna let myself be outplayed when there's a chance right now to put him down. | ||
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On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote: In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far. Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction. | ||
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On February 26 2014 09:04 Amiko wrote: @theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do: I don't think i ever said n1k0 had a decent argument, "a decent argument" was the title you put into your post and that was the part I was referring to with my reply. My post there was me saying you put words in my mouth by saying I townread n1k0's argument. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
I was reading through Robik's posts after Cav's lynch and he was really active during night 1. He declined LT's formal lynching proposal. He also suggested not to post too much info during the night, for fear that mafia might use it to get a good night kill. On February 18 2014 12:27 IAmRobik wrote: So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched. He also disliked that Amiko was posting analysis during the night. On February 18 2014 14:35 IAmRobik wrote: NO...STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GAME. WHAT ARE YOU DOING!?!?!? Robik was being a much more vocal town leader than OnceKing was so I'm guessing that's why they chose to kill him rather than OnceKing. What I find intriguing is that Amiko kept trying to pull information out of people during the night, despite Robik's warning that mafia might use it against them. Amiko asked a lot of questions directed to different players during night 1 and IAmRobik was against that, he didn't answer any of them since he didn't want to help mafia get info they can use to get a mislynch. On February 19 2014 10:35 IAmRobik wrote: I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well. If we're to believe Amiko is mafia, then it makes sense that they killed Robik night 1 because he was encouraging town not to post whereas Amiko was trying to gather information during the night. Most people didn't post reads during the first night, so they valued Robik's advice. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote: I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment. Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away. I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time. Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle. @Amiko Thanks for directing me to the right post, this was the post I was referring to, specifically the bolded part. Without knowing for certain n1k0's alignment it looks like a solid reason for him to vote Cav, but knowing what we know now, Cav really just found common ground between him and OnceKing and that N1k0 was making shit up to justify his vote. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later. -- If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did. I'm gonna carefully read through all of day 4 tomorrow and put in my vote, hopefully it's the right one. | ||
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theDragoon
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Some of the things that stood out to me were: N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking ##Vote Amiko I'm still willing to change my vote, there's been a few new posts since I reread day 4 so I'll look into those and see if I can get anything to convince me this is the right choice or not. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote: I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened. At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read. I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else (n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads. So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town). So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town. I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0- I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his) OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X The post prior to that, he criticized n1k0 for backpacking on other people's posts On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote: on n1k0 I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz". He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1. 2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my reads No one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it. Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 06:11 Amiko wrote: To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning. I've made plenty of posts during day 4 pointing to both you and Valenius as mafia and would not like to repeat them. | ||
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theDragoon
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3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote: If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia? I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 06:53 Amiko wrote: 1) Where did you express that intent? 2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius? Read through my filter when Val asks me if I think majority on n1k0 is better than voting on him. How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. | ||
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theDragoon
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To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection. I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town. + Show Spoiler + On February 27 2014 04:07 Amiko wrote: Valenius posted something that I thought might help explain my day 2 since it was read as scummy play. I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play. I think at that point many of us gave up on Beneather, he didn't even bother posting on day 3 so I don't even think we could've gotten much from him day 2. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later! | ||
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theDragoon
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Looking at Val's justification for voting for me and his play throughout the day I'm led to believe he baited me into voting for the town player (Amiko). I really don't see how he got this from my post: It really is a very good covering-your-ass post, which is why i haven't properly looked at it before, and it's one of the reasons i put you in my town pile. However, looking at it purely as a scummy view, it pockets me and diverts attention away from yourself, whilst leaving me open as a lynch target. In my post I basically answered someone's (i forgot who) question on what would it mean if n1k0 flipped red, which I gave quite a bit of thought to and I really thought I was right about it. Unfortunately I'm very sure that Val used my analysis on the implications of n1k0's flip to get the vast majority of town to think he was green. I really regret not pursuing Val further after the flip and I think it was the biggest mistake that town made. Day 3 was a wasted day since we thought Val was town and Beneather got lynched, he would have been modkilled anyway so we completely wasted a day on that. We completely fell for his plan to gain town cred by voting on n1k0 first. He fooled me into thinking voting for Amiko was right. About my poor play today, I really don't want to make excuses but I had a 3 hour class at 830am and one hour commute to get back home. But whatever, I played poorly today and fell into Val's trap. @Amiko I voted earlier because I was leaning on you being mafia and I read that Val was going to vote you, so I had the confidence that I was right about the vote. Seeing the rest of the day play out though, I was completely wrong. Why I voted before reading the new posts? I had already typed something up and by the time I realized there were new posts out I didn't want to waste all that effort. It was a mistake though. What do you mean about the third question? Also, can you direct me to exactly what you want me to respond to? I'm having a hard time finding exactly what you want me to look at. ##Unvote Amiko ##Vote Valenius | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote: To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist. Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do. I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense. I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you? | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 06:46 Amiko wrote: theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#437 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#438 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#430 THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised. --- Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia. @Amiko Ok, I think this is the post you are referring to, I thought I already posted something about this. I might've closed the tab mid-post. N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town So If I understand correctly, your defense is, given the available roles there's a very little chance that there is a godfather because we know there is no cop and that n1k0 was saying all this is to misdirect the town? I can see it as misdirection from n1k0 since we know he's scum, but I found it really shady that he calls you godfather in the same post that says you're town. If the intent was misdirection then it's clearly worked. Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation I get that you wanted to get more info from Beneather before posting, but there's no denying that it makes you look scummy for holding your vote as long as you did because it might have given mafia a chance to switch the votes to Valenius. I think most of us ignored Beneather because he had no hope in him posting anything valuable. Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia I think I responded to this already right here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#431 Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities. I don't know which one of you two is mafia so I probably seeing evidence where there really isn't. I just wanted to get the right guy and your filter had a lot more suspicious things than Val's did. But right now after his vote switch on me and the really poor reasoning behind it, I'm very very sure that he's scum. He's played me twice this game and if we lose then he totally deserves it. He played a hell of a mafia game. The first time with the first vote on n1k0, and the second time was baiting me into voting for you. | ||
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theDragoon
Canada307 Posts
So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other- If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win. That makes perfect sense. If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia. I think he may have done just that, After I saw his vote I was very confident into voting for you. If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy. I think I have been trying to do that all of day 4, I've presented things for both cases of mafia Amiko and mafia Valenius The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote. In short, mafia Valenius has to decide: Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia? Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia? I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia. It's all up to you Amiko, I'm nearly 100% convinced that Valenius is mafia, I've had my eye on him since day 2 and I really regret thinking I was right about him being town after the n1k0 flip. | ||
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theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 11:17 Amiko wrote: Ok answer this post from earlier. I am questioning you on your comment that what you did was bait. As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait- Here is the summary, see the post below for more: (1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't. (2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote? (3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now. Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful? (4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD. 1) I thought I might have a use for it later 2) It does look like bad logic but if mafia were desperate enough to save their own (it would've been a terrible move) they might do it. I probably just didn't think it through. 3) At the time I thought it might be useful but given how day 3 played out there was no changing the course of events that day. I understand it looks very scummy and if you think that makes me mafia over all the things I've done for town then go ahead and vote for me. It just means you've made the biggest mistake for town and we'd lose because of it. | ||
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theDragoon
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I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it. | ||
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theDragoon
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In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum. That's the thing though, his reason to vote for me wasn't even a new post. It was a post I made on day 2. If you're really 100% certain for voting for me then all I have to say is gg. We fucking lost. | ||
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I think I'll spectate next game  | ||
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