EPT[M][N] "SMB" Mini Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 15 2014 04:46 yamato77 wrote: /replacement for the inevitable cephiro afk period Certainly it will be inevitable. Most humans do not sit on their computers 24/7. Doesn't mean you need to replace me. :3 | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
All you need to know is that I'm one in a million. :3 I shall observe from the shadows, for now. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 16 2014 09:43 VayneAuthority wrote: alright well im gonna throw this out there to get this game going it appears the miller in this game is self-aware, so if anyone is that baboon thing you should claim imo. On January 14 2014 02:06 Dandel Ion wrote: Q&A
If you have any other questions, you may PM me, or ask in the thread with bold green text. ... Please, read the rules. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 16 2014 10:01 Toadesstern wrote: So Ceph, what was your your thought process when you figured it's a good idea to explain that there's no self-aware millers? There's no BH in this game so it's quiiiiiiiite unlikely that a townie would ever fakeclaim self-aware miller. My thought process was this long: 1. See false information in thread 2. Post right information in thread 3. ??? 4. Answer your question about my thought process. There pretty much wasn't one. I also fail to see how it's relevant whether I said that or not. I can't see someone being stupid enough to claim miller at this point in the game. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 16 2014 10:14 Toadesstern wrote: well yeah, with you telling everyone about it I don't see anyone being stupid enough either. Just for reference, Matt claimed self-aware miller in a game that had no self-aware millers in one of my games and it got him lynched d1, ended up flipping mafia obviously. Anyways beans are spilled and like I said I don't read to much into it either. If someone doesn't concentrate enough to make a mistake like that, it's also just as likely they didn't read my post properly either. But yeah, a waste of time to delve on this further. I'm all for plans that aim to catch scum, but I hardly consider not saying the above one. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Actual stuff to follow. If someone is trying to get a lynch on me, it should be ignored. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Break. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
From what I've read so far, I'd like to lynch Mig the most. Almost caught up. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
kush & Mig on the other hand would be fine choices in my opinion. Also I'd like it if possible vigs would not shoot me the following night. Trust me, it's a bad choice. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 17 2014 03:46 Mig wrote: Sno is likely mafia. 1) I had the same thoughts as skan when reading sno's response to kush's question about why he seems so happy. Most townies just ignore it or dismiss it, instead of providing a real answer (which felt kind of like bs btw). 2) These posts he makes back to back In the initial post he very weakly accuses skan of possibly being mafia. Also, this is probably nothing but the stupid :/ face there doesn't really fit for a townie mindset in my eyes. If you think someone is doing something scummy why use the wishy washy face. The very next post he then implies that skan is town when he says that skan actually thinks he is scum. This doesn't really make sense unless he is mafia and already knows skan is town. #vote Sno In this post Mig makes 2 points against Sn0 which are both quite ridiculous in my opinion. Why make such a big deal about a smilie? People like to use them sometimes. Like this >_>. It's an emoticon, no more. Any could be used as either alignment, doesn't say a thing. He's taking one useless sentence and making a bigger deal of it than need be, when there is a shitton of useless sentences in the game which could be said the same of. The second point just isn't valid. Why would it not make sense from town perspective? I can very well believe someone to be town even if they have a scumread on me. The word "instead" as I read it in this sentence is meant in the following sense opinion. 1) Sno originally thought skan was just fishing for responses and pushing the thread forward. ---> 1b) This is not alignment-indicative, although I read it as a "pro-town"-opinion from Sn0. 2) Sn0 however realizes that skan actually believes himself to be mafia, instead of just faking a red read on him to fish for reactions. ---> 2b) Sn0 seems to be unsure what to think of this ---> 2c) The second posts in Mig's case in my opinion is not showing a swing in either way about Sn0's thoughts about skan. On January 17 2014 04:02 Mig wrote: Also, not even sure why you mentioned this. A lot of the things you say feel fake to me. Saying you were "hoping for a productive day1". We arent even 24 hours in yet. Just feels like bs. He further pressures Sn0 with small points like these. I think pressure is a fine thing, but doing it selectively for bad reasons is not productive. Sure, it's a fluffy sentence, but can you really claim to be able to tell if it's faked or not? As mentioned before, there are tons of sentences like this from several other players as well, whom could just as well be faking them. At this point I don't like how concentrated Mig is about Sn0 being mafia with so little reasoning. On January 17 2014 04:17 Mig wrote: This post looks better but a bit concerning you only show the confidence after I called you out on it. Just looking at your responses to pressure from witchcraft, before this post you seemed so much weaker/hesitant when called out. And in one post Mig says Sn0 looks much better for seeming much more confident. Really? After that post? How does saying "cases on me are bullshit" show confidence? I very much dislike how he has emphasized that Sn0 seemed much weaker/hesitant compared to this one "confident" post. My opinion? Hardly a change. What motive would Mig have for saying this? I'm having a hard time believing he truly means these words. On January 17 2014 04:56 Mig wrote: I mentioned grack already. The longer he sits back while the focus is elsewhere the worse he looks. Not a fan of cephiro either, his vt claim while doing nothing is bad Kush is tricky and I am pretty unsure of him. Jumping into the thread and immediately attacking people seems pretty strange for him, but I know in the past hes said he has a hard time as mafia finding things to attack and he generally just makes town reads. Meh, I would certainly watch him. As you may remember, Mig is not a fan of wishywashyness. His paragaph about Kush? Pretty much exactly the definition of wishywashy. There are players who say they have certain sentences that they get tells about. For me, "I would certainly watch X" is one of those. Unless you really intend to follow up yourself, why would you say that? If you believe that player has a chance of being mafia, that means: 1) You are making the mafia player more cautions in his/her play by telling them they should be followed upon closely. ---> 1b) This may lead into the mafia player making less mistakes than they would have. 2) Why would you not do something about it instead of watching? I'm fairly sure you gain more information by pressuring someone and forcing them to reply, rather than waiting and seeing what they want to post. On January 17 2014 05:14 Mig wrote: I would say the case I presented against you had a lot more depth than anything you have posted. For one thing, I actually did some research into a past game. You happened to be the most popular target so what? Do you believe that is why I am posting against you? Or do you think I genuinely believe what I am posting? I am actually trying to find scum here instead of saying I would lynch grack because he's a lurker. For other people what do you want. It is day1, sorry I don't have the entire scum team figured out. I am still open to discussing people which is why I am still talking to you and rayn/hopleess/etc First sentence. Just because you make a post less bad than a horrible one doesn't mean you're doing well. In my opinion Mig's case can by no means be claimed to be well-made or good by any measurements. The sentence I bolded strikes weird to me. It makes it sound like he doesn't believe in what he posts. Why would that be the case for a town player trying to scumhunt? Or even if a town player was unsure of themself, there is no reason to bring it up while pressuring someone as it enables for it to be brushed aside much easier. Would you follow someone that is unsure about what they are doing? I wouldn't. He claims he is actually trying to find scum, yet it doesn't look like it to me. Certainly, no-one can be expected to find the scumteam on D1. I find it interesting that he has to mention how he is open to discussing people and explaining that it's why he is still talking with other players. Is that not a given? Or does someone really think they can nail the game without taking part in discussion? After his earlier pressure, he never takes up Sn0 again. Completely forgotten. Why is this? I would like to hear more. ##vote: Mig | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I'd like to see Mig lynched, which is why I posted my thoughts. Do you somehow consider that as a bad thing? Would you consider it better if I just went all "Sure I'll sheep since I haven't done anything useful today" and voted for Grack or someone else? I have no need to try and derail the lynch or anything, I am merely sharing the other players who would be the best target in my opinion. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I am announcing this in advance since I don't want to hear any ridiculous last-minute voteswitch theories. I am not changing my vote yet since there is time for you to understand Mig should be lynched. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 18 2014 08:54 raynpelikoneet wrote: there is fucking 5 min left`?!?!? what are you talking about Cephiro? I've seen people change their minds and agree to another lynch in shorter times before. I find it very unlikely to happen this time however. But it doesn't mean I should close out the possibility. Is there something unclear about my last message? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 18 2014 08:57 thrawn2112 wrote: if grack is green then ceph is scum And what amazing logic brought you to this conclusion? Because I cannot be a townie that just didn't want to jump on the wagon of votes right away? I'd love to hear you explain this in detail. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
##Vote: Grackaroni | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 18 2014 09:00 thrawn2112 wrote: because you're acting like the lynch will flip green while saying a bunch of useless stuff that isn't going to get your target lynched I have no idea what Grack will flip. He could be either for as far as I know. With the staggering amount of scum lynches D1 that I've witnessed I am bound to lean towards the possibility of him flipping town. Does that make me scum? I told you what I think of Mig and consider him a better lynch option. So if you think I said a bunch of useless stuff in your opinion, would you like to educate me? Give me a lesson on how to change the majority's mind in 20 minutes. I'm listening, if you think you know better. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I don't like the fact that Mig has not been around at all. His posting before the lynch left a bad impression on me. Anyone that checks his Mig's filter from page 2 onward, can see that he is posting a lot of oneliners, mostly filled with questions aimed at several other players. A very casual approach. Too casual even, I feel like he isn't even bothering to think too much about what he posts, just saying whatever comes to his head. While this is not alignment-indicative, I can't help but to feel that he is not actively trying to achieve something with these messages. Especially with the lack of follow-up questionin. The shortness is easily explained by the short time between his posts. What I am more considered about is, for a player that was this interested in questioning others for their opinions hours before the lynch, has since disappeared and not posted a single time after the lynch, or during the nightphase. This makes me think either he actually just doesn't care about getting any more information or answers, or that he wants to be under the radar. The former can hardly be considered town-like at this stage of the game where we don't have that much to go by (regardless of 50+ pages of "discussion"), and the latter is usually not necessarily a good way for a town player to act either. So Mig, if you are town, prove it to us. Otherwise I will do everything in my ability to ensure that you are hanging in the noose tomorrow. Since it appears I still have time, I will try to post a bit of my thoughts on a few other players that I find interesting before the cycle moves on to dayphase. +/- standings from my notes: raynpelikoneet +2 Koshi +2 Sn0_Man 0 Toadesstern 0 VayneAuthority 0 Hopeless1der 0 Oatsmaster -1 thrawn2112 -1 kushm4sta -1 Skanjab1s -1 Mig -2 + is given for actions/deeds/behavior I find very likely to come from a town player. - is given for the opposite, naturally. Players sharing the same score are not in any particular order. Decimal points are not given, but continuous smaller actions very likely to come from either alignment count towards building a complete point in the same direction. Not sure if anyone cares, but felt like sharing it. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Oats is a fine target for a vig shot if we have one. Rayn has a small case on him, but it's good. I will add my own observations later. Another possibility is to save the shot for N2, (or use it on D2), when we have more information, if the possible vig(s) feel confident surviving the night. kush is a very interesting person. My scumread on him was originally much stronger, but between his senseless, "headless chicken" posts, he has quite some gems in there. I am particularly impressed by his logic and theory against me. It is very similar to thoughts I often have as town. I know his assumptions to be false in this game however, but it redeems his play a lot combined with the other few gems he has posted. In any case I'd like to keep him around for now. It is a possibility that he is being given content or ideas by a scumteam of his, but I find this to be unlikely. I would assume kush to be more "yeah whatever I'll do something my style np" instead of taking direct advice/content and using it. So for now, I want to encourage kush to keep up the activity. Preferably with more gems and less headless posting. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I'm hoping it wasn't a vig since that means we may still have a shot and if there is an SK, they need to start scumhunting more properly. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Of course it's still a possibility, but I consider it unlikely. But it's something that should be kept in mind, especially with hopeless's vet claim. Assuming it is true, it could easily be that the setup has a high amount of kp. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 19 2014 09:20 Hopeless1der wrote: Okay so technically there's a third option where you misread the OP completely, but I'm trying to assume you are literate. My apologies if I have overestimated you. (i.e. you are stupid if this is the case omfg). Vig's are dedicated shots for either Day OR Night. Not both. Since you know of the dayvig existing, it follows that you either ARE a dayvig or you FEAR the dayvig and are hoping to direct him elsewhere. Now you're out on thin ice. 1) There is a possibility of a vig, dayvig, neither, or even both (unlikely) to exist with the information we are given. 2) I have no idea which is the true case, which is why I listed all the possibilities. I have at no point claimed I would know a vig role to exist in this game. It is fairly likely to be so, however, but nothing can be said for certain by anyone but a person that may have that role. I think my sentence quite clearly points out me saying that another possibility is to save the shot for N2 (in case of vig), OR use it on D2 (in case of dayvig). What part do you not get? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Is there a specific reason for you to step in and present a counter-question? If I would be thinking Hope is scum, I would have told everyone why I think it's done from a scum perspective. I don't think that's the case however, thus I ask him what he has to gain by doing it from a town perspective, since it felt off to me. Do you have a problem with that? Also Hope, you could actually take my posts seriously instead of trying to be funny. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
However, there is no reason why your or anyone else should consider me a dayvig, nor expect me to have killing powers right now. So let us assume I have none and go on. I do agree with you though, if we have a dayvig, using it as a second lynch makes a lot of sense. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
But as I said, there is no reason why anyone should assume me to have them at the moment. (In my opinion I have not spoken in a manner that hints at myself having any.) Perhaps later on I may hint towards such if I consider it necessary. Or then try to avoid it at all costs. There is no reason to speculate that now, especially given my early claim. Town has nothing to gain from this discussion, we should concentrate on finding the scum (and SK?). | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 16 2014 09:32 Cephiro wrote: Hi all. I am not very interested in the random banter at the start of the game and I have better things to do, thus I will not take part in the first few hours of discussion, probably. All you need to know is that I'm one in a million. :3 I shall observe from the shadows, for now. ^ The above. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 19 2014 01:35 Toadesstern wrote: oh also I haven't commented on the ceph case because when I said good night I finished up what I still had left for the night (see screenshot) and wasn't in here, except for a quick look every hour or so. Actually I still haven't read it. You felt necessary to answer earlier one when you were questioned / accused by others for your lack of response to my case. (Merely acknowledging it's existence and moving on.) By this point you've had more than enough time seeing as you've been posting in thread to read it. Is there a reason you haven't followed up on it after reading it? Or have you still not? I also don't like at all how you are claiming everyone is against you and you're clearly being framed and how you're clearly going up for lynch. I haven't felt at a single point in the game that you would've been close to getting lynched. Is there a particular reason you feel necessary to continuously point this out for others? Trying to ensure everyone understands you are being framed when you aren't? Just looks really off in my opinion. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
So no analysis to come with this post, just my quick opinions. I will not lynch outside: Oats/Skan/Mig/Toad. I'd prefer Mig / Toad lynched. My own analysis as for why to come. And anyone who has read the thread knows there are many good reasons to. For those that are calling me mafia, I'd like to ask one thing. Make a proper case on me based on my own actions if you really think I'm mafia. All I see is so far calling me scum based on association. Last time I knew I'm not that good. (But hey, maybe I've gotten better, who knows?) After re-reading my filter with my neutral mindset, do think about if it's more likely to come from a scum Cephiro or a town Cephiro. That's all. Will be back at least 2 hours before the lynch. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
There is no reason not to after these actions. I can get on a Mig/Oats lynch as well. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
@Rest of the town 1 more down, game is getting harder for us but don't give up. We can very well win this, if people don't give up and contribute. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I actually find it much more likely that you're just scum trying to get points for "trying to save Toad" <-- lol, rather than being town and genuinely trying to prevent that lynch. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
If you want me to believe you are town, then provide me with information and content as I ask, instead of denying my (and many others) requests aimed at you. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 21 2014 10:20 Mig wrote: The game is very close to over now and if 2 townies die tonight then it is 99.9% over. If anyone thinks that I as mafia would have jeopardized that by trying to save the town cop 1.5 hours before lynch just for some town cred you are insane. Since you simply ignore this fact cephiro it means you are either mafia or you have the playing ability of a bag of dirty socks. I don't really know which is the case unfortunately. Except that with your effort of "saving the town cop", it was easy to deduce absolutely nothing was going to change. The fact that you are still ignoring my requests of making a case on someone that you actually think is mafia just proves that you are the next one to be lynched. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 21 2014 10:32 Mig wrote: cephiro, you are incredibly annoying if you are town. At this point it has to be obvious to every single other person in the game my alignment. Just open your eyes. I do not have to make any cases to prove I am town, I have already done so. ... LOL. This has to be the biggest pile of crap I've heard in ages. So you don't have to do anything to prove you are town? Even in that case, if you really were town, why would you not try to convince others that I am scum, instead of just saying "Ceph is scum". You have to be scum because there is no way even a newbie player would be as thickheaded as you about what I'm saying. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 21 2014 10:37 Mig wrote: Do you honestly believe I am scum Cephiro? Yes. If you are town, I can't believe how ignorant you're being. And then you're even worse for thinking I'm scum. @ Rayn: Oats is a fine lynch target as well, but I would insist on lynching Mig first. I have briefly mentioned others, but when there's one person not caring this blatantly I feel it's my duty to keep pushing that person until they actually do something that they can be considered town for, or get lynched and flip scum. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 21 2014 11:00 Mig wrote: Cephiro I really hope now that you are a town. So post game I can laugh at you and call you a moo cow. And that would just make you even more stupid than you are proving yourself to be right now. If you were town, is there a single reason why you aren't trying to prove why I'm scum (since you clearly think I am), and instead focus all your energy on speaking about unnecessary stuff. (What happened with Toad happened, going on and on about it does not get us further in this game). Not to mention the fact you're clearly trying to irritate me on purpose, which is something a townie would not do after given a reasonable request. If you indeed are town, I assure you, you still have a chance of not making yourself look like an idiot. But not if you keep that up. So would you finally present some analysis as for why your scumreads are scum? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 21 2014 11:20 Mig wrote: Cephiro this game is pretty much over and I am going to treat it as such and just enjoy myself. So no I am not going to going to present any analysis for you. If you cannot determine I am town just by reading my previous posts and using some logical thinking then I am not going to hold your hand. Besides you don't even read my posts, I have already said I am not sure if you are mafia or just bad. Defeatist attitude. Next time you don't care about trying to win, go do something else than play forum mafia. Don't ruin the game for those that actually do try, ok? Game is not over before it's over. The fact you're repeating the same nonsense just proves you are the one not reading my posts instead of vice versa. I have multiple times mentioned that it's not even about proving yourself as town. If you were town actually playing to your wincondition, you would be trying to catch scum. At the moment you are just chatting about toad. You have called several players scum, yet provided no reason why they should be scum. If you're unsure about my alignment, then how about the others you have mentioned? Why have you not followed up on any of those even after being requested such? If your next reply is as ignorant as your other ones have been so far, there is absolutely no reason why you shouldn't be lynched tomorrow. And I swear, if you continue like this, and somehow end up flipping town, I am not playing a single game with you in it. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
As a townie, even if you may not particularly care about a certain persons opinions, if you have the slightest suspicion that they may be town, certainly you shouldn't completely ignore that person, even if he/she thinks you're mafia. I will be going through your posts again, but to clarify my point, your overly carefree attitude is exactly one of the reason I suspect you to be scum. Meta does not matter anything to me, I do not base my play on meta. What someone usually does in a certain situation is no given tell, as experienced mafia players can more than easily fake that. I would expect you to know that. Anyway, I'll leave you alone for now since I need to sleep. I will be providing other content than constantly hounding you, but there is a reason why I am constantly hounding you. Maybe if you provided what townies normally do, I wouldn't be hounding you like this. So I am expecting to see reasoning to your reads soon enough. And no, I will not accept "I'm having a bad game and I don't really know." as an answer. Anything is better than nothing, and you should be easily able to do that. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Koshi is town. Hope is town. Vayne is town. 2 remaining scum are in Oats/rayn/skan/Sn0 Rayn is the least likely of those, I believe him to be more likely town. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
If I was scum, why on earth would I fakeclaim SK when I would have had absolutely no trouble not getting lynched today, hardly worth the risk. As you can see, there are people instantly doubting my claim. Do you really think I would have done this as scum when I was under no pressure at all? Come on... | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
You're quite obviously town, and Mig flipped town, which means at least one person is having me completely fooled right now. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Now, given this information, we know there are 4 town players and 3 mafia players. If there is a town vigilante (not day-vig), they should claim if they took a shot on N1. I assume they would have done so by this point in the game since it would confirm us a townie which is fairly necessary. Hopeless I believe to be rightful in his claim. I was thinking about the possibility that he'd be the SK claiming veteran w/ a bulletproof to force mafia into having to try and mislynch him instead of having to take two shots (or one, if hope was actually going for investigation-immune and had played a bluff), since no mafia would waste their shots on the SK early in the game if they suspected the SK would've taken bulletproof, thus leaving lynching the only viable option for mafia to get rid of SK. This would also have enabled the SK to play it safe since he'd return green to checks and would only be killed by lynch, making seeming townie enough to not get lynched not such a hard thing to do. But this is irrelevant now, since we know there is no SK. I am quite sure hope is not fakeclaiming veteran as scum so early on, and he is confirmed town in my eyes, until a situation comes up where I'm proven otherwise. I am not lynching outside Oats/skan/Sn0 today. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Knowing the game would have ended if I was an SK in this scenario, why would I have fakeclaimed an impossible scenario as scum? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
If I was scum, do you think I would have pulled off this claim without informing my teammates? --> Follow-up: Do you think a scumteam I belong to would have agreed to let go on with this claim of mine? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Why I fakeclaimed SK as VT: If Mig had been scum -> They could have used a roleblock on me (wasted resources) If they had shot me -> VT taking a hit instead of possibly a remaining blue If SK had existed: Draw attention away from the real SK. (If there was one, we would have needed him to play for town). If none of the above, multiple scenarios, where in each my play is extremely absurd, and followed up with my analysis will ensure every single townie that I am town, thus lessening the mislynch candidates for others by one. JUST WAIT FOR MY ANALYSIS, TRUST ME TOWNIES, I GOT THIS. YOU HAVE TO GIVE ME A CHANCE TO BLOW YOUR MINDS. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
1) They take my claim seriously --> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play. --> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim). If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play. 2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town. --> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation. ---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum. As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me. I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.) Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game. 1) They know my claim is fake With information that we NOW have: Scum has a vigilante. There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest. Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility. This means that scum also knew there is no SK. The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection. It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results. --> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town. There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of. How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective? Logical conclusion: It doesn't. --> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this. Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3? Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective. Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing. Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot* Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot* Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town. Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot* Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots* Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots* Mig ended up shot. A good play. Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value. 1) Other good shots are actually scum players. 2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum. 3) Maximize one target for mislynch. We know for sure that 3) is true. Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot? Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom. Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive. Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far. If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope. This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there. Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town. Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie, counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia. 1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible. 2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do? 3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched? Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there. Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option. I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne. There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Assuming there is an SK (and we know it's not me): If the mafia believe my claim, the optimal play is to shoot anyone but me or mig, which would have won them the game. If they don't believe it and think it's someone else, the optimal play for their shot is to shoot me. That leaves two options (which I had opened up earlier, thanks for pointing this out) 1) No roleblock -> Hope that the SK hits a town player for instant win. (SK would not shoot me or himself = 3/6 = 50% chance of ending game right there) 2) Roleblock one of remaining four players. --> 25% chance of hitting SK --> Game will end right away. --> 75% chance of hitting a townie --> SK has 50% chance of ending the game. This means roleblocking would have been the optimal choice. This means if they would have feared there to be an SK, they would have used their roleblock last night on the player they assume to be SK. That also means that if they had not hit the SK, and SK shot scum, we would have one confirmed townie in the player to claim the roleblock. Which actually proves my play as even better. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
--> Most likely this has not been needed to be compared, as if Vayne was scum, then there is no doubt that Mig is the best shot to make after my given scenario. It is not 100% certain that Vayne is scum, but it is extremely likely. The fact that you believe that I could still be scum after reading that tells me more than enough. Scumteam: Oats/Vayne/??? Keep going. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
He doesn't change the outcome at all though, given his play so far and having been a target for many other players at this point, there is no reason to shoot Oats as scum above other players even if he were town. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 22 2014 11:57 Oatsmaster wrote: Or is it really worth it to shoot Mig cause he might just catch all of us. Scumslip? Thank you. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
##vote: Oats | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town. --> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation. ---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum. How hard was it to read? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
^ From the OP. Yes I have confidence. I'd lynch either you or Vayne right now. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Rayn, I knew I could count on you figuring it out. Nice one. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
You read my posts, you know I'm town. We're in MYLO, no-one but scum would be pushing for my death at this point. I assume all town players actually read what I said. As you can see, Vayne + Koshi + Oats are currently the ones sticking to that. With no other reasoning than my fakeclaim ploy. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I admit I did not concentrate much on others before the happenings of last night, but that was because I firmly believed Mig to be scum. I did mention my suspicions on other players and did also mention players I consider to be town. Your reaction to this tells more than enough. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Which of the mafia would you like to lynch today? Also Hope+Sn0+Skan, get in here and join the discussion. We can't win this with myself and rayn alone. We need your votes. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Read all the posts carefully, even without common sense you should understand that there is no way that what I and rayn are pointing out is by scum. Just my post alone should prove that, there is absolutely no reason for me to do such a play as scum when I was in no danger of being lynched. I was supposed to be the mislynch of today after scum saw my fakeclaim, and they can't back it up now after starting, which is why Koshi + Oats are pushing for us so hard. Do the right decision and we will come back, lynch every scum in the following three days and win. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Think about it outside the box. If I don't have enough information to nail the scum, why not make a play to ensure others of myself being town? One townie less in the pool of mislynches is always a plus, which is the minimum also I wanted to achieve. By making this absurd enough, I've also managed to cause a discussion that effectively outed scum. This would not be the situation we'd be in right now if I had continued my play as usual. But hey scum Oats, why waste time in trying to question my fakeclaim. You're not going to be able to undermine me. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
##vote Koshi Cooking dinner and shiz, will be around though. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Rayn and hope and me I am sure are town. Need to re-read the actions after the night after I've ate. I am fairly sure the initial reactions most close to my fakeclaim and after the nightflip give us the best information. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I don't see Sn0 being scum based on interactions and flips so far, even if his play hasn't been the greatest. The question is... whom out of those is town? Me or rayn will get shot the following night for sure. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
The latest reactions of Vayne & Oats have been the most suspicious, but I'm having a hard time believing both of them would be scum after skanjab's "_|_ town" vote. They've also both put more effort into looking better lately. Luckily we have time to certain ourselves of the remaining scummers. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 24 2014 08:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: I do not think any mafia team would roleblock their own on N1, given they have a vigi and roleblocker. There is a veteran claim, so they KNOW there is at least one another PR out there. Why not? Chances of hitting a town powerrole on N1 is fairly small. I was scum in my first game of mafia ever (a newbie game on here), and we roleblocked our own team member. There are two ways that can be used well in my opinion: 1) Try and get town cred for the roleblocked one 2) Gather even more town cred for another teammate that makes a case on the roleblocked member of the mafia | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
##vote: Oatsmaster | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I am fairly sure all three players on Oats are town right now. 4th town player please step in and vote for Oats also. As for Oats, why I don't believe you at all is because of your previous reactions that are so giving away. You also have been throwing suspicion and theories toward everyone for the whole duration of the game, but when asked to provide something, you again change the focus of the discussion into what you prefer it to be. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Or do you think it's a better idea to vote for someone else than whom I think to be the most scummy person in the thread, to "not sheep"? | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Skan mafia vigilante. Hopeless Town Veteran Cephiro Vanilla Town Sn0_Man Vanilla Town VayneAuthority Vanilla Town / Serial Killer We have to lynch mafia today, That brings us to 4-1 or 3-1-1. Possibilities: 4-1 into 3-1, with most likely me dying on N4. Nolynch D5 Either 3-1 or 2-1 If 3-1, mafia won't shoot -> lynch the remaining mafia on D6 If 2-1, lynch the remaining mafia on D6 with a smaller chance of fucking it up. If there is an SK, it is Vayne, there is no other possibility. (Missing SK shot on N1, guess who got roleblocked?) In this scenario he has probably been roleblocked ever since, just not claiming it. Or just withheld his shot for maximum wifom. Then we come into a tricky situation Without roleblocker: SK shoots town -> 2-1-1 If mafia shoots town -> 1-1-1, remaining town decides winner of the game (or joint win for SK+mafia). (If town dies, SK is most likely bulletproof -> SK wins) So mafia would vote for SK, SK would vote for either town or mafia. Unless he is not bulletproof, in which case he'd vote for mafia. This means mafia will not shoot town, unless they want give up the control of having a say in who wins the game. Best play for mafia is to shoot SK. If SK is not bulletproof, he dies, bringing us into 2-1 for the final day. If SK is bulletproof, 2-1-1 final day. 2-1-1 final day means... town wants to nolynch. SK & Mafia want to lynch each other. Or lynch a townie together. Two possible scenarios: 2-1-1 night, or 1-1-1 night 2-1-1: They cannot shoot each other or they will lose. They will have to not shoot, shoot the same townie, or shoot both townies. If no town dies, repeat scenario 2-1-1 day. If 1 town dies, town decides winner (unless scum+SK decide on joint win), if 2 town dies, scum+sk joint win. 1-1-1: Town decides winner or scum+sk joint win. With roleblocker: 3-1-1: SK roleblocked, town shot: 2-1-1 with SK bulletproof possibility, not good for scum. SK roleblocked, SK shot: 3-1 or 3-1-1, town controls lynch in optimal play, and wins game. (3 votes on either SK or scum -> 3-1, NK = 2-1, last day town lynches and wins) SK not roleblocked, see above scenarios. Only joint win possibility. Optimal play for mafia with roleblocker alive is to roleblock SK and shoot him to get rid of bulletproof, leaving it 3-1-1 (only possibility for sole win, if manages to convince other townies of himself being town), or agree to draw with SK and play accordingly. Basically for town this means we are fucked if we kill the roleblocker. But that is also mafia's only chance for a win with their own faction only. Thus, I'd like to propose the mafia faction that their non-roleblocker starts posting baby seals and outs himself willingly for today's lynch. We are not lynching outside Oats/Skan. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
The only possibility I can come up with where it's not game over is that it's 3-2 now and town has a medic, or that town has a vigi and it's 3-2. But why the fuck would they not have claimed last day? Doesn't make any sense, what am I missing? Or is the game going on for the nightphase because mafia has a chance of shooting the vet in Hope? (But they would never do that?) WP scum/SK/whoever bad guys out there are left. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 27 2014 09:37 Mig wrote: Cephiro such a cow tsk tsk tsk. Everybody refused to listen about sno! Wp scum team tho you guys did a good job. I have not played with you before and from my perspective I had absolutely no reason to believe you are town. I'm not saying I played a good game, but in my opinion I certainly wasn't the only one. | ||
|
Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
| ||
| ||
