[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 3

On January 24 2014 01:49 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, nobody listened to me so I'll do it myself:

kita makes that "joke-serious" post on sandro here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=12#223

That alone doesn't really tell me much about kita though. Later, he keeps doing the "sandro is a good lynch vote him!" stuff, which could be odd if his sandro's buddy. But then he drops it so it's not really alignment indicative.
Hmm, although it puts him in a more townie light. For example with this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=14#268
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=14#270

Kita's vote on sandro do seem to have a purpose, which is consistent with his posts up there. It is a discussion starter, it does pressure the lurker, etc. I don't find it likely scum kita would start his "game" at the coast of sandro like that. Not strong evidence, but my gut says it makes sense as town kita.

Also, in a wifomy way, I think this makes Hapa very likely town (more than he is now):


If you are scum, and your scumbuddy makes an "awful" first post someone votes him for....do you really chainsaw defend him in such an OBVIOUS manner?
Hapa keeps up with this too, going against kita. It feels genuine.
Also this:

He even plays devil's advocate when someone defends sandro. He didn't hesitate to do this kind of stuff.
I just don't see him doing this being scumbuddies with sandro at all. Of course, there's the rest of his play, but this I think basically convinces me to never lynch Hapa in this game.

So, this is our foundation so far

gonzaw
austin
Hapa
These 3 are untouchables, remove them from any scumlist, or any "possible" scum list (at least until one of them does something utterly stupid or something).
marvy marv is not untouchable yet. But to touch him, you have to do it softly and gently.

On January 23 2014 05:38 WaveofShadow wrote:
But I am in no way convinced about Prome by your earlier case, like, at all. Your return simply makes me want to lynch you less.

On January 23 2014 05:52 WaveofShadow wrote:
IF VE is scum I will have a big sad.
I'm quickly running out of time as I won't be here for lynch so I may have to sheep someone---my other strong townreads aren't here atm so it may be gonzaw.

Gonzaw assuming you now hold my vote as well and could place it where you wanted, which of the two you mentioned would you put it on?

On January 23 2014 05:58 WaveofShadow wrote:

So not marv/sandroba then.
I might still be able to get behind that. His answers were good enough...they fit for lack of a better term, and I'm not bothered by the same thing you are regarding his read of austin but it's the early play that doesn't make sense to me. I can't reconcile his using the barest effort he put in for the first 30 or so hours of the game to first toss a vote up on me and give what appeared to me to be 'not the greatest' reads...

I want to re-look over his case on Prome because I already know I thought hsi case on me was pure bunk and I said so earlier---I'm a little too self-focused.

On January 23 2014 06:24 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright final post, I'm feeling better about dropping my vote here.
Call it a sheep of gonzaw or thread sentiment if you want, if not you can use my current line of questions/suspicion including my earlier problems with his first case on me.

This may be one of the most difficult games I've played in, and it's a good kind of difficult.
##Vote: Foolishness

Be back a little bit after deadline.

On January 24 2014 04:46 gonzaw wrote:
Well, post reasons then.
Is there any reason we should consider a Foolishness/Sandroba/Promethelax scumteam?

On January 24 2014 04:54 VisceraEyes wrote:
In this post, scumFoolish tries to make town believe that scum VE and scum WoS, rather than try and save sandroba somehow, just lazily plop our votes down on Foolish. Because THAT doesn't draw attention to people!

On January 24 2014 04:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
My point is that you have to also factor in that scumSandroba just flipped. If we're scum, what are we doing about Sandroba being lynched? Why would I bring up sandroba in the lasts posts I make before the lynch? That doesn't make any sense and you know it.

On January 24 2014 05:37 gonzaw wrote:
@Foo: I'm not really going to put any attention on Prome or marv until way after some other dudes are dead. I just don't want to assume that kind of stuff in case I get paranoid later or something.
Although meh fuck it I guess it doesn't hurt to consider those 4 "confirmed town", at least by the time D2 arrives.

---

About WOS:

Well, I am the "direct" responsible for WOS's vote on D1, so I dunno if I can get anything meaningful out of it. Had I said "Vote sandro" he could have parked his vote on sandro. Then your story would be different Foo.
I guess it's just something I'll likely ignore for now regarding WOS.

For example:


Couldn't you say this exact same thing about Prome's vote on sandro? Doesn't really think he's scum, but under pressure sheeps gonzaw into voting him.
Couldn't WOS do the same thing? Not really think Foolishness is scum, but under pressure (he was apparently in a rush to leave), sheep gonzaw into voting him.
The situations are so similar, that I don't know if I can critique one of them (WOS) without critiquing the other one (Prome).
(of course not 100% similar, one was 5 minutes before lynch, but in the sense that I mentioned above they are kind of similar)

On January 24 2014 05:42 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, I don't really see scum Foo here just shutting down basically possibilities for his scumteam to win later. He straight up calls Prome and marv like confirmed town. He had every right in the world to keep tunneling them (like he did on D1), yet he makes sense and instantly backs off both of them, reducing the pool of suspects to 5 (Foo, Toad, VE, Kita, Holy), where there are 2 scum and we have 2 misslynches to spare.
That's scum suicide basically, unless he can be so sure he can win in that 5-people standoff.

And I mean, by "has every right in the world to keep tunneling them", I mean in the sense of what VE is doing here attacking Prome. I.e basically ignoring the fact Prome fluently participated in sandro's last-minute lynch and trying to nitpick other stuff and coming up with complex scenarios he's scum, etc.
Scum Foo would be all over that shit with both Prome and marv. Specially with marv.

I'll just assume he's town for now until we misslynch someone.

On January 24 2014 11:19 austinmcc wrote:
Side note, just putting this in thread while trying to chart stuff out.

IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town.

That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF.

Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome.

So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita.

On January 24 2014 11:35 austinmcc wrote:
Defending foolishness doesn't mean something wrong or you need help, perfectly legitimate.

I just didn't like taking him off the possible list, nor the people who were just saying "Amg recent posts look townie, Foolishness totes town now gaiz" without seeming to consider his full filter in light of the flip.

He's a possibility, not guaranteed red, but I just like seeing more people posting on him and having thoughts based on the full filter.

On January 22 2014 10:11 WaveofShadow wrote:

This post in specific by Holy I feel is important.
The nitpicking he has been doing in regards to gonzaw and Hapa feels townie to me, and I do agree with his final thoughts except that final sentence rubs me the wrong way. The game of mafia is by nature a game of paranoia and I don't really feel that his line of questioning needed justification in that way---the 'things he looks out for' seem perfectly natural things for a townie to look out for (and hence why I was liking a lot of his posting), but then why make excuses for yourself at the end with that final sentence? Where is the holy wrath, righteousness and vindication ina townie knowing you're doing the right thing?

Holy, your filter has completely been devoid of me, and I believe I get my best reads from conversing with people directly, so maybe now that we're both here we can talk just a little?
Since you were curious over some people's obsession with Foolishness before he started to contribute, I might guess that now that he's actually done something you might actually have something to comment on the matter?
What do you make of the fact that he has apparently chosen you as one of his primary targets for the day? (He still has his vote on me i believe but I imagine that will be moved one way or another.)

On January 23 2014 00:14 WaveofShadow wrote:
Actually on second thought, more detailed reads will have to wait until later in the day.
Until then, notes:
Firm null on Prome - VE's points about the 'conversation starter' similarities to LX ring true with me, though he appears to have more of an actual direction this game. There was stuff about his earlier content I both liked and disliked, too early to tell on him. Still waiting on breakout case from him and others.

Holy - No fucking clue---never played with him before. Some of the pseudo-anger displayed could be seen as townie but I don't really give it much weight---nitpicking Hapa seems really odd. Gonna have to look deeper on this.



Be back in a few hours.

On January 24 2014 11:54 gonzaw wrote:


Doesn't make sense scum think they have the control of the lynch when one of their own has 6 votes against him 8 minutes before the day ends.
The only plan to save himself from lynch like that....is vote shenannigans. I doubt Foo would think anybody would do vote shennanies on a townie (i.e not on sandro of course).

Again, remember this stuff happened all 15-10 minutes before deadline.

Anyways, I guess both of us can rationalize anything by now, so maybe this kind of discussion is pointless.


Not if you just said the only possible 3rd scummy that makes sense is kita.

On January 24 2014 12:03 gonzaw wrote:
Foo, you need to learn how to make ad absurdum arguments.
You don't have to show that sandro's vote makes sense if you are town, you have to show that sandro's vote DOESNT make sense if you are scum.

On January 24 2014 05:48 Foolishness wrote:

If I'm mafia what is my game plan to win this game? That'd probably mean the other member was on the sandroba train and I'm hoping that he can cruise the next 4 lynches to victory. If my mafia buddy is in the pool of Toad, Kita, VE, WoS then we're pretty much screwed since they are already under suspicion and I can only survive so long and divert so many lynches before I get punished for it.

If one of you, austin, marvellosity, Promethelax, Hapa is mafia I'm pretty sure they will reveal themselves over time. Not tomorrow, maybe not even day three, but they will show it eventually. Off of long term behavior.

On January 24 2014 04:55 Foolishness wrote:

If I'm mafia with sandroba that should clear Promethelax. The other mafia would likely to be kitaman or HolyFlare or just a random straggler who was already voting for me.

Promethelax has made a lot of sense in his most recent posting (not the drunk ones, though I actually can't tell for some of them lol). Also sandroba went after him.

On January 24 2014 12:07 austinmcc wrote:
Eh. I'll have bothers regardless. My bothers are less with foolishness's recent posts and more with the thread reaction to them, or what I think of as a long-term memory problem (I know there's some psychology term for weighing the recent events more heavily).

On January 25 2014 00:08 kitaman27 wrote:


This is the post that still bothers me the most about Foolishness when he groups austin and sandroba in his null reads.

Foolishness, I know you stated several times that you were treating sandroba as wait and see, but what are the "strong appearances" and "things brought to the thread" that you are referring to with sandroba's posts. I mentioned earlier that I disagreed with his assessment, but you didn't reply. Could you please point out what you were seeing?

On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote:
Look at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead.

Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day.

On January 25 2014 09:46 kitaman27 wrote:
Hmm I think Foolishness is mafia. Post incoming!

On January 25 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote:

I see absolutely zero reason why this section of your post is relevant, and I've said it multiple times before. I don't ever see mafia members actively trying to push lynches off their scumbuddies. However if you actually do think this way, maybe it explains why you as scum were trying to save sandroba?

On January 24 2014 06:01 kitaman27 wrote:
Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others.

On January 25 2014 10:09 WaveofShadow wrote:

Silly question then in regards to your last post:
Which two of the four of us are scum?
And 'it doesn't matter' doesn't cut it because there is no way in hell the rest of the players in this game will simply follow your instructions and lynch those 4 without considering all options.

On January 25 2014 10:29 WaveofShadow wrote:

And what makes me the most likely scum candidate over someone like VE or Toad?
What have I done in this game to deserve the 'Most objectively scummy award?'

And you know, as an aside something gonzaw mentioned really strikes home with me here. You keep pushing the lynch on four of us---if Toad is scum as I surmise, then you win simply because you mislynch the other three, and you hope to gain the sweet lovely towncred you crave. Even IF I somehow go down today (which isn't happening), immediately upon my flip the thread realizes something is up and your 'lynch 4 and win' plan never comes to fruition.