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On February 06 2014 11:05 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 10:32 WaveofShadow wrote:
I dunno I find myself disagreeing with a lot of this analysis and the way it's done. It's interesting to listen to from another POV to be sure, but if you can go through everything as meticulously as you did and still be incredibly wrong about so much, it doesn't give me a lot of hope that there are objectively 'good ways' or 'bad ways' to go about reading/posting at all.
Random thoughts:
You have so much faith in meta it's astonishing to me.
Somehow I get lumped into 'bullying the thread to get who I want lynched' with gonzaw and yet the D2 VE lynch....
Kita analysis was very interesting but I can't honestly be sure if you're right because you went about it the right way or because you 'just happened to be right.' If you read my posts you notice that it doesn't just boil down to doing behavior analysis, but it's combining the analysis with their current thread posting. My analysis posts always have a big section looking at their posts from the current game without regard to their past behavior, just analyzing if they made the post from a town or mafia point or view (what were they accomplishing when they wrote this post). That has nothing to do with looking at past behavior. There is no technique or rule that will get you to know if someone is town or mafia 100% of the time. If there was such a thing then the game wouldn't be fun to play in the first place. It's not just one thing that makes someone mafia but a combination of different aspects of their play. Finding mafia means building a case against a person, not just looking out for one specific thing they do or don't do. Behavior analysis aids in the case building and allows you to either strengthen (or weaken) your case against someone. It is not an absolute way to find a mafia, and it never will be (nor have I ever claimed it is). Of course it's going to be wrong sometimes, and of course I'm going to be wrong when using it sometimes (either cause I misused the tool or it wasn't the proper tool to use in the first place). Just in the same way you're going to be wrong when analyzing someone purely on their current posts in the thread. People will always surprise you and this is no different. It's okay to be wrong as long as you know why you're wrong because that's what will really make you better. Again, it is a tool to aid in finding mafia, not the absolute method for catching scum. That it why it is always combined with their current posting and thread agenda. One or the other is not sufficient in itself. Your disbelief in it is a big reason that's preventing your play from drastically improving. I'm not saying that to be mean or criticize you or anything like that, just letting you what I see from your town play over a variety of games. If you were to use this tool in aid of your analysis and posting style that you already have your success rate would improve. And I mean, even if you want to disbelieve in it that's fine but it is clearly a process that does work (or at least have strong benefits). There is a reason that there are plenty of good players here that are known for being good that do this stuff, such as myself and Kitaman, and then also older veteran players like Ver, Qatol, MrBabyHands. Even players who aren't big on it still use it to reinforce their ideas. Marvellosity is not a big analysis player, but he'll still back up his claims and use the information to achieve his goal with his posting. Mafia is a game where the only limitation is your own imagination. As you said, there aren't real "objective" ways to go about reading/posting. Instead it's about the patterns of reading/posting or building a case that are good and bad. For example the General Guide To Mafia never instructs you to do X or Y if you are town or mafia. Rather it's about following a pattern of reading/posting/making a case (prove to the town you are innocent, make all your posts meaningful, use your vote in a way that gathers information. Or organize your team in such a way, balance your survival with your agenda, make your night kills in such a way that helps you). And that's what makes the game so great.
I really like this post.
Foolishness confirmed town
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A little bit too late don't you think? 
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
<3 WaveOfShadow
On February 06 2014 11:30 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 09:14 Foolishness wrote:Of particular interest would be the video here where I explain the behavioral analysis process and how to go about it, using Kitaman as an example (thank god I was right about his alignment). Toad would have been ecstatic if someone dedicated an hour to talking just about him. He dreams about that kind of stuff. Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 10:04 gonzaw wrote:WHY DO PEOPLE ALWAYS CALL ME GUN-SAW ITS WEIRD AS FUCK  I found it kinda funny that when Foolishness said Kita (rhymes with Cheetah), he got it right, but whenever he refereed to me as kitaman, the pronunciation randomly changed. Also, let it be known that one line posts mean I'm confirmed town. Foolishness has spoken. The blatant anti-mafia database propaganda was concerning, but I'm willing to forgive him for his ignorance. Overall, I thought the analysis was pretty spot on. I can think of certain games that could have led him to the exact opposite conclusion if he happened to read those filters, so I think the most important thing with a meta read is that you base it off a reliable sample, rather than draw conclusions based off a 1 game comparison. It's too bad day three turned out to be Foolishness vs Prom, rather than Foolishness vs marv.
It's cause I'm under the impression your last name is Kita (which I assume is pronounced Kee-tuh), but for some reason Kitaman (kit-uh-men) rolls off the tongue better than (Kee-tuh-man).
The database thing was mostly a joke =P
And yeah, you can definitely mess things up a lot if you look at the wrong games. Ideally you want to look at all the games the person has played, but nobody except VE has the time to do that. That's why I like to get two games as town and two games as mafia (or 3 if the person has played a lot). For me I find that's a good balance between getting a good read and feel for their play without spending 8 hours reading someone's games.
On February 06 2014 11:43 gonzaw wrote:A little bit too late don't you think?
Nah it's all good. We're all here to learn and to help others learn.
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On February 06 2014 11:44 Foolishness wrote:
It's cause I'm under the impression your last name is Kita (which I assume is pronounced Kee-tuh), but for some reason Kitaman (kit-uh-men) rolls off the tongue better than (Kee-tuh-man).
The database thing was mostly a joke =P
And yeah, you can definitely mess things up a lot if you look at the wrong games. Ideally you want to look at all the games the person has played, but nobody except VE has the time to do that. That's why I like to get two games as town and two games as mafia (or 3 if the person has played a lot). For me I find that's a good balance between getting a good read and feel for their play without spending 8 hours reading someone's games.
I go for the most recent ones. If I'm not convinced with the most recent (scum/town) one, I go to the next, etc etc.
The less time between the game you choose and the current one, the more likely the conclusions you take from said game are actually valid (i.e that player still plays the same way).
Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 11:43 gonzaw wrote:A little bit too late don't you think? Nah it's all good. We're all here to learn and to help others learn.
Well, I certainly learnt not to use meta on you >_>
I think I took town games from you from a LONG time ago (like >1 year stuff like Liar Game, etc), and well, you play kind of differently now, sometimes.
We also all learnt to lynch replacements, and to lynch marv at LYLO. Those are 2 lessons I'll take to heart.
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On February 06 2014 11:53 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 11:44 Foolishness wrote:
It's cause I'm under the impression your last name is Kita (which I assume is pronounced Kee-tuh), but for some reason Kitaman (kit-uh-men) rolls off the tongue better than (Kee-tuh-man).
The database thing was mostly a joke =P
And yeah, you can definitely mess things up a lot if you look at the wrong games. Ideally you want to look at all the games the person has played, but nobody except VE has the time to do that. That's why I like to get two games as town and two games as mafia (or 3 if the person has played a lot). For me I find that's a good balance between getting a good read and feel for their play without spending 8 hours reading someone's games. I go for the most recent ones. If I'm not convinced with the most recent (scum/town) one, I go to the next, etc etc. The less time between the game you choose and the current one, the more likely the conclusions you take from said game are actually valid (i.e that player still plays the same way). Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 11:43 gonzaw wrote:A little bit too late don't you think? Nah it's all good. We're all here to learn and to help others learn. Well, I certainly learnt not to use meta on you >_> I think I took town games from you from a LONG time ago (like >1 year stuff like Liar Game, etc), and well, you play kind of differently now, sometimes. We also all learnt to lynch replacements, and to lynch marv at LYLO. Those are 2 lessons I'll take to heart.
Those are terrible lessons
Lynch scum!
Also, for what it's worth, I rely on meta a *TON*. I always have. For me, it's just much easier to read behavioral patterns across multiple games than it is for me to look at the current game and analyze a few posts. I think I get too emotionally involved in the current game and my analysis on posts (or even entire filters) gets biased too easily, while I can objectively compare behavior.
Maybe it doesn't work for everyone, but it does for me.
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The thing is that trying to do that kind of "meta" analysis....takes A LOT of time yo. I mean, I did it with Foo because his filters in his games are like 2 pages long. But imagine trying to do a meta analysis on marv, taking 3 of his town games, 3 of his scum games and reading his filters in those all the way through.
Well....you can see why I didn't do it with marv lol.
I try to do that kind of analysis if I have a lot of free time and nothing happens in the thread (where I just go into "Oh well, might as well read his past games there's nothing else to do"), or if I'm really motivated to do so.
Would have helped in this game perhaps, to catch Toad and marv, to figure out other guys as town, bla bla bla. But it's just so much easier to take the current game in isolation, and just use meta from your memory ("Oh, marv always lynches scum as town I think I remember!").
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It's the easiest thing in the world for someone to roll scum and act like themselves. I think instead of looking at someone's behavior you should look at the logic behind their reads.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
Foolish wrote
Finding mafia means building a case against a person, not just looking out for one specific thing they do or don't do.
See, this is interesting. syllogism said to me before (or maybe not to me, but I read it) that he can have all the analysis he wants, but if he can't point to something in very particular that he finds off, he doesn't have confidence in the lynch.
On February 06 2014 19:56 kushm4sta wrote:
It's the easiest thing in the world for someone to roll scum and act like themselves. I think instead of looking at someone's behavior you should look at the logic behind their reads.
Not for me it isn't, sadly
Foolish wrote
Even players who aren't big on it still use it to reinforce their ideas. Marvellosity is not a big analysis player, but he'll still back up his claims and use the information to achieve his goal with his posting.
I use meta a lot, but a lot of it is feels for the player i've played with. I'll diligently research a player I don't know so well. The thing is, for my high volume of posting I do as town, I do a tonne of work behind the scenes that I don't bring into the thread. Fool spends paragraphs and paragraphs explaining meta and behaviour, which is fine, I'll make my decision based on my legwork and present it in a few lines.
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On February 06 2014 19:56 kushm4sta wrote:
It's the easiest thing in the world for someone to roll scum and act like themselves. I think instead of looking at someone's behavior you should look at the logic behind their reads.
......
we have not played as town recently.
I would consider un-retiring to test out your theory.
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Join the GSL game Mocsta. 
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On February 06 2014 20:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:Join the GSL game Mocsta.
I can't
sorry dude.
Mafia is too much of a drain in real life as town or scum.
I'm not one of those guys that is happy if im only putting in 30min a day
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On February 06 2014 11:44 Foolishness wrote:
Ideally you want to look at all the games the person has played, but nobody except VE has the time to do that.
Hey now, I don't have time for that shit either - I've got porkchops to make friend.
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I'd like to participate in the next game. Is there a chance anyone could estimate when that could be?
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On February 17 2014 13:34 Pniski wrote:
I'd like to participate in the next game. Is there a chance anyone could estimate when that could be?
It will be a little while, the currant newbie game just started 24 hours ago. Feel free to sign up as a replacement for that game or join the observer qt; either way keep your eye out for newbie mini mafia LIII which will be open for sign ups within a week I'd guess.
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I posted one of these in the obs or coaching qt but this is my full list of player summaries from before the game started. I'm curious if other players think this is useful (obviously without the shadow I wouldn't have written it down) as I generally like to think about what I expect from players before the game begins.
I've tried to add a lesson to learn from each player to make you/the games you play in better. You don't have to take that, or any, lesson from these players but they are things I hope you'll consider.
1. Foolishness
-a persinal hero of mine when it comes to mafia. He has my all time favourite town filter in Aperture Mafia. If you have extra time in your life I urge you to read at least his filter. He posted entirely in limericks and singlehandedly saved a doomed town. In my one town game with him he royally screwed the pooch and was a useless shit bag (along with the rest of town) we lost the game without flipping a single scum. His scum play recently has been very flawed though I believe that most, if not all, players will be trying their upmost in this game which should rectify the major mistakes exhibited in his play: namely caring not a single fig. Foolishness is a paragon of wonderment, he has a power to his words you'd do well to accquire. Once you learn how share the secret with me.
2. Marvellosity
-My first mafia coach, as scum, and one of the single best players to have ever touched a game of mafia. He excells as both town and scum but I am pretty sure I can read him correctly due to our long history together both in and out of games. He coached me for many months and made me the player I am today. Of all the players in this game he is the most likely to preform excellently as either alignment. One thing that marv does which everyone should do: remains active throughout the game as either alignment.
3. Promethelax
-As mentioned in pre-game one of the weaker players in the game. I would rate my play as generally better than Holyflare, WoS and Austin while being on about the same level as VE, Hapa and Gonzaw. We shall see how accurate that rating is in this game. I have been playing mafia for about two years, I have an exceptional town play and a weak (though mostly untested) scum play. My recent scum games have been failures though mostly through the fault of my availability. I had one exceptional scum game as a newbie which in many ways was similar to your own recent game where I lead the town by the nose and won a perfect scum victory; since that time my scum play has been lacking a certain flair. My town game can be seen in the recently completed LoLYP where I was alive for 24 hours before being killed by scum. I suggest that if you are interested you do your own research on me since my explanation of my own skill is, necessarily, biased. Most of my past games are linked in my profile. A thing I try to do is listen to the newer players, they may not have the best ideas now but fostering them now will lead to their playing better games in the future. Always play the long game.
4. Austinmcc
-One of the funniest people I have ever played with. An all around good guy though not the mafia power house of many of the other names in this list. I have never seen Austin lead a town as either alignment though he is an excellent second for a town leader. He holds a position I often find myself in of being decent but not exceptional. One of the weaker names on this list though he has the potential to come up big as do all players. Of all the people playing this game he is one of the most likeable and that can do a lot to improve a game. Learn from Austin: have fun.
5. Sandroba
-An odd name to see alone. In my head he is always paired with Syllogism. The two of them are an incredible team and, I have heard from inside sources, read every game on TL. They discuss their reads with each other of those unfolding games and have a great insight into each other and mafia as a whole. He and Syllo suffer from a weak scum play which comes as a correlation to their strong town play: their styles are so exquisitely townie as to offer no mode of duplication. Learn friendship from Sand and Sy, somewhere out there is someone you can obsessively talk to about mafia and who you can bounce reads/ideas off of. Find them and do it. You can only get better.
6. VisceraEyes
-Just as marv was my perennial tutor so too was VE to marv. Now the pupil has exceeded the power of the master but VE is still a formidable player. VE has a strong town game as well as a strong scum game, the latter benefitted by his reputation for crazy-ness as town. Most players would find it impossible to role-claim as a role which did not exist and avoid the lynch in that manner but I have witnessed it from VE. VE is a wonderful guy and he and I have played many opposing games together, in fact I don't believe we've ever rolled the same alignment which has lead to a long string of hilarious encounters. Ve and I have a good deal of respect for each other and easily throw around insults which probably go too far sometimes. VE is the master of don't-give-a-fuck gaming, learn the ability to let things go from him. Sometimes the flop doesn't go your way so take it in stride.
7. Kitaman27
-An all around excellent player who I know very little about personally. I have played only one game with him which is worth counting and in it I, as SK, shot him n0. I know him to be competent as both scum and town with the ability to lead. Kita does a good job not just of leading the lynch but of involving others in it; try to make sure everyone has an opinion and a passion when it comes to lynching you'll know more about them and you'll seem towier for trying to get that passion from them.
8. HolyFlare
-By my estimation the weakest link in this game. I don't think his name fits with the other ten though as I've been mostly absent from recent TL games I may have missed something. I am deeply interested to see how HF plays this game as it could be a moment of great triumph where he proves me wrong and shows that he is more than worthy to hang with some of TL's best or he may crack under the pressure and be the member of this game who brings it down a notch. From HF learn presevearence. If he can make his voice heard in the tumult that will be this game he will be able to move mountains with his voice.
9. Hapahauli
-Someone from my newbies. Considered one of the best new players of 2012 by me. He had an aggressive style as town which steam rolled the rest of town into following him. He has since toned down and become a pleasurably smart person who no longer jams his words down your throat or other available orifice.
10. Gonzaw
-An old friend. He played in my first ever game of TL mafia which I joined as a newbie and found myself overwhelmed by. He is a verbose individual often using 100 words where 3 would suffice. Gonzaw is a fun guy who obsesses over everything: he is a programmer and will sometimes say things which I cannot translate from English into English. Gonzaw is a cool mo' fo' you should follow his example and post many words. People often can't be bothered to read long posts and so often are convinced by their length. You this to your advantage with weaker players.
11. WaveofShadow
-WoS is aight. He is someone I coached when he was in newbies and he has come a long way since that time. His scum game is an unknown he only rolled scum once and his team which was composed entirely of newbie scum rolled town: it was a thing of beauty. His town game is good though like HF, Austin, Gonzaw and myself he has never been the town leader by himself. He has not yet showed the ability to lead either a town or a scum team by himself although I believe he has that ability and will eventually show it. WoS is always trying to get better and that is something which everyone, even the best should do, you aren't the best. Niether am I. So lets get better together through this game.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On February 18 2014 10:02 Promethelax wrote:
7. Kitaman27
-An all around excellent player who I know very little about personally. I have played only one game with him which is worth counting
Heh you're the third person to say that recently. It's funny to see people that have been around for years and then realize that you haven't really actually played with them. I think it was iamp that brought up the fact that over my 40 games and his 20 games, we had overlapped liked twice. Apparently I only join the oddball games XD
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On February 18 2014 23:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 10:02 Promethelax wrote:
7. Kitaman27
-An all around excellent player who I know very little about personally. I have played only one game with him which is worth counting Heh you're the third person to say that recently. It's funny to see people that have been around for years and then realize that you haven't really actually played with them. I think it was iamp that brought up the fact that over my 40 games and his 20 games, we had overlapped liked twice. Apparently I only join the oddball games XD
yeah I don't think we played a lot of games together either. Fairly sure we had some but I can't recall a lot
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On February 02 2014 05:32 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways...
AVENGE US SHADOWS!!!!!
YES
DRAW BABY
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does this podcast thing exist somewhere now? If so please link
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EPT
