EPTNot slyherin, not slytherin...
"But that is where all the greatest scum lurk."
Go slytherin, go slytherin...
Hogwarts Mafia
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Not slyherin, not slytherin... "But that is where all the greatest scum lurk." Go slytherin, go slytherin... | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Clearly edited posts due to a scumslip when it's not even allowed. Have you somehow infiltrated yourself into some other house than the great Slytherin? Yes, this is a blatant bus. Wait.... Will the Houses have their own QuickTopics? How will the voting for using the item be done? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
K-pop is better than sex and I could die happy if I got a cute, cheerful Korean waifu. Okay, so yeah. There have been all kinds of claims about me and my participation in the QT, some more close to the truth, and some intentionally painting me in the worst manner possible. I want to clear that up, but I'll try to keep it short. Basically, today morning I made a short post with random fluff about my own life as the most content, with two points that can be considered relevant.
Simply put, as someone that studies statistics, I ran quick calculations and the chances of mafia knowing in which house each player resides is as high as ~91%. I mistakenly worded this the wrong way around in the QT (due to not having slept), which I'm sure everyone in the QT understood. Long story short, in my opinion the chances of mafia already having that information were high enough to basically guarantee that, and if town has the same possibility of gaining that information, they should. There may be roles that become more or less powerful with this information revealed, but I do not expect it to be substantial enough for it to be hidden. And after I made my thoughts clear, the houses and their players are all revealed, so this is mostly meaningless. I wanted to share this so you would know what I had posted, in the name of honesty, and possibly giving someone ideas to go by. The "additional posts" after that were mainly me raging since I got pissed off at mostly rayn, the way my actions were shared to the thread. The reason I originally didn't also post that short snippet of information I did earlier was that I didn't consider it very important, as well as I wanted to start the game with a proper, contentful post that other players could actually find useful, rather than random sleepy-as-fuck-thoughts. Also I've noticed recently that a bad start seems to haunt you way too easily for the whole duration for the game, thus I didn't want to handicap myself to begin with. This however didn't end up happening due to the actions of other housemates of mine, so I will have to live with that and make the best out of this entry of mine. In my apology-post in the QT after I had raged before I went for a k-pop pause, I also had a very short speculation about the setup. To share it with everyone, I basically thought due to the reactions of several other people talking about their roles and the setup, and knowing mine, that the setup is most likely completely pre-arranged. (Note: These are assumptions.) Such as: Draco Malfoy is always in Slytherin. Or, Hermione Granger is always town. This is not something worth looking into in my opinion, I was merely posting my thoughts out. As for why I don't consider it important, if I hosted a game myself I'd make sure that any role could be any alignment, simply to avoid "meta-gaming the hosts", since I believe that defeats the purpose of the game. And I find it likely even if most of the setup was made in a traditional, true to flavor manner, some side character at least would have a twist. In any case, end of beginning rant. E: Re-checking what I remembered, the rules state the mafia has been randomly distributed, which would make this speculation useless, unless you consider the possibility that hosts are lying to keep the option open even if it wasn't for balance reasons. Now for the players. After reading through the thread again slowly with a k-pop calmed mind I have come to the following opinions and conclusions: Mattchew: + Show Spoiler + On October 17 2013 08:35 Mattchew wrote: a lot of soft accusations being thrown at Skanjab1s and dont we always have to lynch the self aware miller or is that some other weird role? Useless observation, then a lynch poke in form of a question like he's unsure about it? Doesn't follow through later. His whole thread contribution is nonexistant so far. What I see is a completely random jump in out of nowhere, to try and buddy yamato. He notices that though, and things go nowhere. On October 17 2013 10:52 Mattchew wrote: i didnt like this "lol", i thought it looked pretty weak Like really, what is the purpose of posts like this? What I find interesting is that he follows up with a "long" post where he responds to each accusation made against him... incredibly poorly. It doesn't even look like a defense to any extent. At the moment I'm leaning scum mostly since I'd expect more of him, rather than a completely useless, null filter. He hasn't really been pushing a pro-scum agenda or anything, but what ticks me off is the complete lack of anything pro-town. StorrZerg: + Show Spoiler + The definition of useless. All he has done in this game is to show up at a few random times to remind everyone that "I think Sn0_Man should die." And this ONLY post where he provides any kind of "content", is hilariously horrible. I'm not sure if he's even trying. It looks more like complete trolling, which is something we do not need. I mean really, check this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=431052¤tpage=41#814 3 Arguments which of 1st: Some random shit about flavour 2nd: A post read weird to him -> He checks post history -> Thinks it doesn't line up. This sounds like completely pulled from the ass, especially showing no example. 3rd: Lack of activity, which I can agree with. Not necessarily a scumtell though. What I wonder is why he chose to concentrate on Sn0_Man, when there are lots of players that have put out more content and can be made better reads on. It could be a case of bad town makes case on inactive town but... I have my doubts, since he has at no point in the game shown interest in anything else. Palmar: + Show Spoiler + As others have seem to noticed, he is completely fixated on Mocsta's self-aware miller claim. On October 18 2013 05:39 Palmar wrote: Nope, no current scum reads. What Mocsta did is only beneficial to him if he's scum, it's bad and awful for him if he's town. That doesn't mean he must be scum, I've seen enough people do dumb stuff as town. Which is precisely why I want to know what was his intention with the claim. He claims to have no scumreads at all, and he also hints at not having read the thread. Does not provide reasoning for possibly not having two. Doesn't appear to give a fuck about anything else but trying to figure out Mocsta's reasoning for the claim. What I am wondering, does Palmar really think he can't contribute in a better way with all the other content available? We have QTs and we have the thread which grows all the time. I wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. syllogism: + Show Spoiler + On October 17 2013 14:33 syllogism wrote: I wouldn't bother with the statistical probability of there being mafia in only two houses. It's almost certain that roles have abilities that at least somewhat match their flavor and they were designed before their houses were RNGed. That is to say, mafia characters and roles were designed before any RNG and therefore their houses were not chosen randomly. Even if mafia has fake claims the same thing applies; the fake claims must match their house flavors and it seems very unlikely that those fake claims were designed after players were shuffled. All this is quite useless at this stage, but may have some utility in the end game if the game is close. On October 04 2013 05:58 You-Know-Who wrote: Each player is sorted into a house. Each house has 6 players. Players in the same house will be able to share a house QT. Mafia have been randomly distributed into each house. Mafia KP is # of scum/3 rounded up. 4 - 6 scum= 2KP 3 or less scum= 1KP What ticked me off a little about syllos play is this. The rules say that mafia has been randomly distributed into each house. That pretty much completely debunks his posts. I don't say statistics is something that should be trusted completely on, but given a 90%+ chance I think it's quite reasonable to factor in. It's not even close to a coinflip situation, so it's a fair assumption to make that the mafia has the information. I admit I made the same mistake at first until I rechecked the ruleset about this, but what I don't like either is the way he undermines his own post. If you feel it is quite useless at this stage, why share it? Or did he share just for the sake of sharing his thoughts, or does he actually believe this information may be useful in the end-game but not now? On October 17 2013 15:27 syllogism wrote: Do you genuinely think this is a list of "very good observations"? The only actual "observation" of any note and utility is the first one and I would like you to elaborate on that a bit. Did you believe he was playing his Thug Life playstyle when I initially asked as to why you thought he was "pretty obviously" town or was that based on something else? In this post he shares the Gryffindor members which hadn't been done up till that point. I fail to see how that is irrelevant to share with others. Syllo also completely disregards the last point about StorrZerg, which was very valid in my opinion. The usefulness of Pandain's statements can be argued, but in my opinion it's certainly more than syllo gives credit for. In general, syllos posts seem very calm and analytical. They get straight to the point and have anything unnecessary stripped of them. While this could be very good town play, I feel that these are carefully worded posts that leave anything that could be considered from a scum perspective out. This is partly since his posting gives me the feel of someone stating his opinions in many things, but it doesn't seem like he is actually trying to figure anything out. 4 other people I am suspicious of and will make small cases on unless I change my read strongly: rayko (rayn+Koshi) holyflare skanjab1s Vayne Also... I'm looking for smart lovers. Post your application ASAP. I know you can't resist my charm. It is the theme of the game after all. <3 | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I'm getting tired of this shit, it's like if I don't post every 5 minutes like in some games I previously have I'm scum. Well, at least you'll perhaps finally understand not to meta me. Go ahead and lynch one of the main characters. -_- | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 03:27 raynpelikonoshi wrote: See, that's the same Shiaopi said when we lynched him in Thug Mafia. But we are not lynching only on meta, but also on you being 1500% useless on top of that. See at least you can try and remove the useless part. 1500% useless? Yeah, I try to post once and all I do is get shit for not having posted a thousand times. Not like your one-liners are any better. Motivates me a fuckton when there were several others doing jack shit, but if I don't have the time to post every 5 minutes I'm scum. That's the worst meta shit ever. At the moment I'm sorry to the hosts but I really don't give a flying fuck about trying to defend myself against random bs. I haven't read all the new pages yet but I assume it's some more "his post looks constructed or similar to noir, must be scum" bs. I wish it wasn't against the spirit of the game but I really feel like signing up for every game possible, posting only once a day as town until you guys realize that's not "metagaming". | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 18 2013 20:47 Palmar wrote: Reposting for format. No, I would never say anything dumb like that. Here is why claiming SAM is incredibly mafia favored. A single cop checking randomly has a 1/22 (24 - himself - lynchee) chance of checking you on night 1, that's 4.5% chance. The chance slowly goes up throughout the game, but only in the absolute far late game does there exist a significant chance a SAM exists. We don't know if there is a SAM in this game. If the setup was open there'd be an argument for claiming, in fact in a completely open game a SAM is a power role. However in a closed setup, there is no point in claiming it. Optimal play would be to simply play well enough so cops wouldn't even think about checking you. The fact that you claimed means for some reason you yourself believe that you will be unable to keep yourself out of the red-ish zone for this game. I'm not sure if this is lack of confidence in your own play, or if this is because you're scum. But I see no reason to play sub-optimally as town. As mafia, the benefits of claiming SAM are amazing, it basically neutralizes the cop against one of your team. You're taking a weapon away from the town. You'll still be analyzed as before, but you can never be attacked as scum through a check. This also means the chance of hitting mafia goes down from 6/22 (27,2%) on the first night to 5/21 (23,8%) for a cop. This benefit becomes even more important if the mafia has a godfather (5/22 to 4/21). So the question remains, why are you afraid of a cop check? There's an entire team of mafia players whose goal is to play towny enough to not get checked, and they have to do it with the burden of knowledge and the inherent scummyness that leads to mafia lynches all the time anyway, a miller would be completely free of those things, and yet doesn't have the balls to avoid a cop check with good play? ##Vote Mocsta Like really, people tunnel on crap like this and I'm up for lynch? Yeah. Go scum, you can just post whatever you want as long as you do it often, people won't care. Mafia claiming as SAM has "amazing" benefits? A whopping 3.4% reduction in chance of being hit by cop? Amazing. Marvellous. Incredible. Palmar makes it look like the only reason for Mocsta claiming is due to being "afraid of being cop checked." Well guess what. If you were framed for murder irl and you knew it, would you not be afraid of the cops coming to your door, given you are one of the suspects? (Comparison to being one of the players in the game.) Ooh. Shit. Seems like honesty in this world isn't appriciated at all. How likely do you consider someone talking themselves out of being lynched claiming self-aware miller AFTER a redcheck? Yeah. Not very. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 03:39 raynpelikonoshi wrote: Cephiro i would be okay if you participated in the discussions going on in thread instead of making one big fluff post that says 90% nothing at all. Instead you decide to dedicate the time you have into throwing shit at us on house QT for voting for you. That's not townie behavior. At all. -rayn It's only "one big fluff post", because you have decided to paint it that way before you've even read it. THAT is not townie behavior. At all. How have I dedicated time throwing shit at you in house qt instead? I haven't posted anything except telling you way to go once I came back and saw I'm up for lynch. Means I haven't posted after my initial annoyment at you, thus making your statement FALSE. But yeah, you can go ahead and re-paint more green to red and everyone will be happy. As long as you remind everyone that you're doing it constantly. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 03:44 Holyflare wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=431052¤tpage=45#895 The posts before and after this are the reasons I will be voting Cephiro. For the points I brought up, they still stand. Why would he post so much in a QT that may be heavily influenced with scum when he has an entire thread he could be bouncing these ideas off? His original post pretty much listed half the thread as extra scum reads that were not further elaborated on in the thread despite saying that he would. 1. This guy has no idea what and how much I have posted in the QT. I have posted very little in the QT, which of most were the rage posts directed mainly at rayn. But for some reason, this is still a valid scumtell. Because guis, I posted so freaking much in the QT. SO MUCH. I POSTED THERE EVERY TIME YOU BLINKED AN EYE. And hey, guess what. THE QT MIGHT BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED WITH SCUM???? No FUCKING SHIT. Guess what, this thread has a whopping 6 SCUM PLAYERS IN IT. WE ARE ALL BEING INFLUENCED BY SCUM?!?!? 4 small cases + 4 small suspicions = "Half the thread" 8/24 = 25% at most. Yeah. Fuck this. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 03:46 LastArgument wrote: Cephiro, 3 questions. Do you think with one post you demonstrated to town that you care about finding a lynch? Do you think we should be able to read you as town from your one post? Is it unreasonable for town to find someone suspicious who doesn't care or is involved with town? If the answer to any of these questions is No, you need to stop ranting and look and push for a good lynch The thing is, as far as I know, we're playing Mafia, not "Post-the-most". I think I did a fairly reasonable post that can be seen as a genuine town interest in the game. I explained my own opinions, statements and behavior, as well as gave some reads and reasoning to them. I do agree the less content to go by, the harder it is to read. But I also think that little, contentful posts are better than constantly posting useless fluff. But it seems that someone wanted to paint it as fluff, and what would be easier for scum after seeing a good post to just ignore it completely, claiming it as fluff = Leaving that person looking like he has done nothing at all. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I will try to reply calmly after that, and tell you who I want to lynch and why (but it will be short, as we are short on time.) 1) People claiming that the cases on me have nothing to do with meta are blatant lies. 2) I genuinely love K-pop, I don't understand why an innocent remark of such is considered fabricated. You can ask anyone in the gryffindor QT, I also posted about k-pop there, and they can confirm it. (But I doubt rayn for example would even want to, he's happy to paint me as scum as is.) 3) I know that one post is not enough contribution no matter how great it is. I'm just tired of trying to play from behind. (Meaning, I get accused and since I'm the type that doesn't ignore accusations, I end up wasting all my time defending myself instead of hunting for scum. This is something scum may know and may abuse, but it's my personality and I'm not going to just disregard someone's suspicions on me if I am town.) | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
I'm sad that established TL-players are so confident in their "meta-gaming skills". Maybe they'll learn one day. Maybe. I remember being sad about it over a year ago when I went to the army. I guess things don't change that much. Someone asked me about my opinion on the Sn0_Man lynch, I personally think it's a mislynch. The flaws in his play are that he hasn't been very committal nor active at scumhunting, but the way he responds to pressure and says his opinions make me think he's town. As well as the fact that even though he is on my wagon, he doesn't seem to be very content with it. (Of course a townie has to put his vote somewhere, and scum pushed me up well enough to not leave many other options.) It seems like players haven't even considered other options properly. Someone suggested I should die, painted me to look a little worse than what I really am due to my lack of activity, and boom, case closed. Train full speed ahead. Gonna post all my reads now since I'm not very positive about myself surviving. Even though I am a main character, I don't consider my role extremely powerful, so maybe a worse mislynch may get prevented if anything. Since time is short, this is a straight copypaste from my notepad file. This is up to date to my first post only (page 42-ish), but holds very true. + Show Spoiler + Hogwarts Mafia Player list by house: ******************* Gryffindor: ******************* 1. Cephiro - Towniest Town Alive Give coin to Toad 3. Pandain - Probably Town 5. VayneAuthority (Ginny Weasley?) - Bad start in thread. Puts time into setup speculation. Fishes for reaction from yamato, tbh I like. Plays too ignorantly. 6. raynpelikonoshi - Pushes at start for bad reasons. Ugh. Why not push if you could? Too wishywashy. Makes me look bad on purpose. 18. Stutters695 - Null/Lurk 20. justanothertownie - super null ******************** Slytherin: Active QT ******************** 2. Sn0_Man - Good points. Sharp. Fluff. 7. EchelonTee - Wants to hear from Mattchew, good pickup. Good points. Shares his house, late in the game. Valid points. Defends himself properly. 12. I-be-Pro - Seems ok, good points. Pro-town. Setup speculation. Thinks his role is anti-town. 14. Skanjab1s - Suspicious question in QT, good logic but false example. Ambigious answers. Defends rayko after pressured by him. Tries hard. Crap. Not useful. wants to fill? Seems like he gets helped by scumbuddies. 16. Blazinghand 19. Mocsta - Self-aware Miller claim. Seems like town. Would fit within theme. (Good guy Slytherin looks bad because Slytherin?) Plays pro-town. Coin? ********************* Hufflepuff: G+2H lots of discussion in topic instead of QT.. good thing? ********************* 4. Grackaroni - Suspicious about his own house. Town w/ hopeless? Wants to stay under the radar. Town blue? Too easy townread on yamato. 8. Mattchew - Almost insta-jump on miller claim, nothing else. Weird.. Random jump to talk with yamato, nothing else. Weirder.. Just like really bad. Addresses all points made on him, but poorly. 11. Palmar - Jumps in to question Mocsta claim, nothing else. Sticks to that. Nothing else. EXTREMELY useless. Too focused on claim. 21. Hopeless1der - A bit more careful in the G+2H discussion. Town? Interesting ability speculation. Reasonable in his opinions. Coin? Maybe not very tricky? 22. Holyflare - Seemingly ok attitude about QT, weird defense on Skanjab1s Very concentrated on Grack/Hopeless about not competing. A bit too trigger-happy? Interesting opinion about not caring about what scum does? 23. StorrZerg - Asked about how much mafia in where. Same as Skanjab1s Seems to be chiming in for irrelevant stuff. Random Sn0_Man accusation. ********************* Ravenclaw: ********************* 9. Onegu - Useless, too many sorries or truly busy? 10. LoneMeow - 13. syllogism - Setup post that he claims useless, doesn't make much sense. Points things out favourably for his opinion. (Ignores StorrZerg comment.) Good points when it doesn't hurt mafia play. 15. supersoft - generally good vibe 17. LastArgument - Valid point, I like. Coin? 24. yamato77 - Just bad, shares information related to activity only. Filler activity. Does, doesn't. Notices Matt's buddying attempt, good. Wants himself to be analysed. Not pro-mafia. + Show Spoiler + REDACTED Suggestions(Townreads): LastArgument Hopeless1der Mocsta EchelonTee Pandain I-be-Pro Scum: StorrZerg Mattchew Maybe?: rayko holyflare syllo Palmar VayneAuthority skanjab1s | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 04:31 syllogism wrote: That's another thing I loathe: posting your notes. I completely agree. I asked the mods beforehand if it was alright. I did it because I do not feel the lynch is going to change to a proper target in < 30 minutes. I didn't feel like re-writing all my reads that are already stated and format them properly. Someone may find that useful, someone won't. At least I tried. If I do end up dying, at least people should realize trying to metagame me is pointless. Then maybe I can play a proper next game. (I do know I'm faulty for not having posted more, but at least I can post more in the future without people going "meta -> must be scum/town" and stop playing altogether.) What I wish for is that someday TL learns to play mafia by a game-basis rather than trying to be too clever and meta-game. It may work sometimes yes, but I really don't see why people so often consider meta a more certain tell than reading the actual game and making decisions based on the analysis on the current posts. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On October 19 2013 04:35 Pandain wrote: I'm back and still don't have much time. Someone explain why cep hiro is massive bandwagon now despite his posts from when I was here? Because I hadn't posted more until I came on ~2,5 hours ago, and since my 1 post was only "fluff and no contribution at all", and the post is clearly "my scum meta", and scum were painting it like that, people just blindly join the wagon and thought it's a great idea. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Rayko should be looked closely upon. I know I may be slightly OMGUS, but in my opinion he has tried to push my mislynch WAY too hard. He is tryhard as town, but he didn't even consider any other possibility until I posted my notes, and now he's suddenly all fine with changing targets? | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Assuming worst case scenario: (Both me and him are town) If we lynch Palmar -> Palmar dies (-1 Town?) If we lynch Me -> I die (-1 Town, possibly -2 if palmar gets modkilled and is town) All aboard the Palmar wagon? >_> | ||
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