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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Balla24 (2): Bereft, nyxnyxnyx nyxnyxnyx (3): Seuss, Balla24, E00e Bereft (1): istandwithmitt onlywonderboy (1): SagaZ E00e (0): Not voting (3): GGTeMpLaR, onlywonderboy, July617 Currently, nyxnyxnyx is set to be lynched. to deadline. Remember, voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On October 19 2013 03:02 nyxnyxnyx wrote: if it makes you happy ##unvote ##Vote: Balla24 like i said, no difference to me. i'm basically blind since the 2 people i'm following (Bereft and Seuss, after Odin's death) have not voted / are voting for me. Ugh... out of all the things I said you chose to do this? So unhelpful... You're not even playing the game by not even thinking about any reasoning for anything. @Onlywonderboy this is the kind of thing i'm saying. It might be his 1st game but by your 1st game you were at least trying to form your opinion AND you were being defensive about things. He might be uncomfortable but this is completely ridiculous. I made a perfectly reasonable post for him to answer to and all he does is vote me for it T_T. You would have never done that on your 1st game, however uncomfortable you were. | ||
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E00e
88 Posts
There were a few players that said they didnt think I was the cop and other players pointed out that Mafia could have thought playerboy was the cop. I dont think it really is evidence against me that I was not roleblocked? Would you like to know if i am vanilla town or a role? If that is a bad question to answer just say so! | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: that was my argument actually. but I realize now that my argument assumes mafia thought (like playerboy and I did) that you were soft claiming. which may not necessarily be the case - because going back and rereading your filter a second time, it doesn't come off like a soft claim after all. I think at the time I was largely convinced by playerboy aggressive reaction. I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. Wait what? I thought your argument was based on the fact that he wasn't roleblocked which means he's part of the scum team. What does it have to do with whether or not scum thinks he was soft-claiming? | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 19 2013 00:36 Balla24 wrote: and wtf man... get off my back... this is the second time you've voted directly after me directly like me with very little other information. I only wanted to use my vote as a pressure vote and you trying to start a train like this makes it hard. This looks so forced as a bus. I am more and more sure of the E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24 circle every day. I am trying to take a step back to make sure I'm not tunnel visioning on this theory so I can be right, but I can't help noticing these connections. Hopefully they are not inspired by my confirmation bias. On October 19 2013 00:39 onlywonderboy wrote: I'm pretty suspicious of SagaZ at this point. He very well have been busy, but coming back to make one impassioned post doesn't clear him in my eyes. I'm interested to see if he's able to participate in any of the conversations going on around lynching time. That's generally where a lot of useful information comes out. Although it seems we are going pretty much all in on nyx at this point. Which, I don't have an issue voting for nyx (I think he's kind of scummy), but I don't want to start the bandwagon too early when new information may come to light. And of course I disagree with SagaZ's analysis of me. I find it so weird he can say all my posts have been useless when Seuss is claiming they are pretty good, just not a lot of them. I find it interesting they can have such different opinions on my posts. More intra-circle busing going around? Maybe, maybe not. Just note these interactions between onlywonderboy-E00e-Balla24. On October 19 2013 00:42 Bereft wrote: what do you guys think of the fact that mafia decided to risk not blocking E00e when there's a decent chance he could be cop vs myself who has given any indication of a blue role? Well given my reads, I think it fits pretty well with the fact that he is likely mafia. On October 19 2013 00:48 istandwithmitt wrote: @Balla: there's no reason to blindly believe a roleblock claim. It's weird that he would claim in the first place (do vanillas get roleblocked??). I think his slipping wrt claim is the scummiest thing to happen in the game so far & I don't get it if you guys don't agree. ##unvote ##vote: Bereft I just have to laugh at this at this point because we're somewhat stuck with you now that we failed to lynch you Day 1. You're not 100% wrong that Bereft could be faking, but the way he's playing compared to others, there's just better lynches for mafia at this point and if we end up flipping a scum, we can go back and look at Bereft's interaction with them when it's more appropriate. I'm still not going to write you off as being scum/SK entirely, but there's better candidates for today for both roles so you've got a pass from me for today. Also, I really do want to re-emphasize that just because you're giving me lulz, I still disapprove of how random you're playing because it isn't really pro-town at all. On October 19 2013 01:16 onlywonderboy wrote: This post actually makes me believe SagaZ is town. He's right, I've been been way too quiet and have been coasting for most of this game. I've been quick to follow Seuss because he's town and I know he's an incredibly analytic thinker, but that's way too passive play and doesn't really do much to help the town. I tried to get some discussion going with differentiating the mafia/SK kill, but that broke down quick and it turned out I was likely wrong. Honestly I'm as surprised as him I'm flown under the radar and really that's just bad play on my part. I'm still working on rereading the pages to try and get more scum tells, but I can at least put forth I think SagaZ is town based off this post. This is weird for me, not weird as in mafia but weird as in I don't know what to make of it in light of my current read on you and E00e/Balla24. On October 19 2013 01:27 nyxnyxnyx wrote: #Vote: E00e I'm even more convinced you're a lone agent serial killer now than before. On October 19 2013 02:20 onlywonderboy wrote: I think a possible mafia combination is July/nyx/x. It seems unlikely to have two mafia players lurking so much, but they could easily be relying on the third mafia player to be the active face of their team. Nyx came under a lot of suspicion based on the way his voting went down (switching to Vonith for little reason and then him turning town). Plus him and July were getting pressured heavily by Odin. July actually goes out of his way to defend nyx's vote because it would be a bad play for the mafia. I mean, in a vacuum it makes him look suspicious, but the bandwagon on that vote was pretty strong maybe they thought it wouldn't be too hard to hide among the other townie voters. Also there is the possibility nyx could act as a martyr for the an active mafia player to gain tons of credibility in the town. I mean clearly it's not the cleanest play on the mafia's part, but having two players come under suspicion by Odin early could definitely make them panic. It's certainly a different theory than most people have brought up, but even if I'm wrong the conversation that spawns around it can certainly be valuable. You're doing a good job of ruining my confidence in my theory that you are mafia with Balla24-E00e so I dislike this post for that reason =(. I don't think you're my lynch for today though because of it. Another post coming shortly. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: that was my argument actually. but I realize now that my argument assumes mafia thought (like playerboy and I did) that you were soft claiming. which may not necessarily be the case - because going back and rereading your filter a second time, it doesn't come off like a soft claim after all. I think at the time I was largely convinced by playerboy aggressive reaction. I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. My concern at the moment is that nyxnyxnyx will skate by on the same defense istandwithmitt did, which would make the "safe" play for just about everyone to be lurking, cryptic posts, aggressive "you're bad if you think I'm scum" posts, and generally being unhelpful. That's not how town should play. I'm leaving my vote on him for the moment while I reevaluate Balla24, E00e, and SagaZ. I also need to take onlywonderboy's aggro post into account. | ||
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SagaZ
France3460 Posts
On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: that was my argument actually. but I realize now that my argument assumes mafia thought (like playerboy and I did) that you were soft claiming. which may not necessarily be the case - because going back and rereading your filter a second time, it doesn't come off like a soft claim after all. I think at the time I was largely convinced by playerboy aggressive reaction. I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. Avoiding miss lynch is number 1 priority; if we have a choice, I think lynching SK first is definitely better. I think the reason should be fairly obvious. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 19 2013 04:20 E00e wrote: @Seuss Could you reiterate again why you think im Mafia? I would like to know the accusation so I can defend myself. There were a few players that said they didnt think I was the cop and other players pointed out that Mafia could have thought playerboy was the cop. I dont think it really is evidence against me that I was not roleblocked? Would you like to know if i am vanilla town or a role? If that is a bad question to answer just say so! At this point it's process of elimination. I'm town, that's one down. Bereft is town, that's two. istandwithmitt, in all his glory, is town #3. onlywonderboy, despite SagaZ' inquiries, is #4. So I'm left with you, nyxnyxnyx, SagaZ, Balla24, July617 and GGTeMpLaR for the rest. If we go based purely on post volume/content/wordcount, Balla24 and GGTeMpLaR are the other two town. If we go based on my previous logic, July617 and GGTeMpLaR are the other two town. A lot of the problem isn't that you're particularly suspicious, although your low post count and the fact that you weren't roleblocked put you under scrutiny, but that you also haven't done much that makes you seem like a town. When I have strong town reads on four people, and fairly probable reads on 2-3 others, you're one of the odd players out. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. I've given my thoughts onto why nyxnyxnyx is our most likely candidate for a SK. I think if he isn't a SK, he is more likely town than scum due to what seems to be a lack of strong connections with others. The benefit of lynching nyxnyxnyx if he is the SK right now could be a reduction in KP that would hit a town. However, it can go both ways as it's also a possibility that if nyxnyxnyx is the SK and we keep him alive, he could hit a mafia (which is somewhat less likely from a numerical perspective than hitting town, but still possible and would help town immensely). For this reason, I think nyxnyxnyx is definitely a safe lynch for today, but is he the safest lynch in light of this fact that he could also hit a mafia for us? Maybe he is. Who do I suggest are viable alternatives to nyxnyxnyx? Not our confirmed town Seuss (obviously). Not our wildcard istandwithmitt for reasons I gave in the previous post. Not Bereft, who appears to be the most confirmed town based on his play, in addition to reasons I gave in the previous post. July617 is a possible candidate due to his suspicious behavior and lack of activity, but there are more suspicious players I think with a similar lack of activity. I wouldn't lynch July617 just yet because he's a less likely scum in my eyes. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. SagaZ has been under a lot of suspicion since the start of the game, and rightly so. I disapprove of his appeal to emotion at the beginning of the large post he made here: On October 18 2013 15:25 SagaZ wrote: I want to give a big and heartfelt apologize to the town, this day has been dramatically bad and busy. it is almost 3.30 am and i have to wake up at 6 tomorrow. I'm in no condition to make super detailed analysis but I'll give my toughs on what's going on so far. Fortunately I'll be home earlier tomorow. I find the "preemptive excuse" very suspicious, and further, the connections I drew between SagaZ and July617 lead me to think he is a likely mafia candidate. However, like July617, he isn't at the top of my scum list. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. onlywonderboy would probably have been in my top 3 lynch candidates for today, however for reasons I gave in the previous post, I think he is off the chopping block for the upcoming lynch. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. That leaves Balla24 and E00e as the last two possibilities for alternative lynches to nyxnyxnyx. Balla24/E00e were both in a mafia circle alongside onlywonderboy, however onlywonderboy has made what I believe to be pro-town contributions today that I noted in my previous post. Both Balla24/E00e have given me no such vibe. In fact, the only distinguishing factor between Balla24/E00e for me at this point is the quantity at which they post and give their thoughts. For this reason, I would suggest that if we don't lynch nyxnyxnyx today, E00e would be the next choice over Balla24. Balla24 is at least posting a decent quantity of posts so we have a lot of information to work with on Day 3 regarding him and his reads, and we will likely continue to gather more information from him on Day 3 if his activity into Day 3 remains consistent. However, E00e is much less revealing as to his reads and reasons for them. For this reason, while I have strong scum reads on both of them at the moment, I think from a pure information-gathering perspective, Balla24 would be more useful to keep alive than E00e at this point. Further, it has been noted that there is a minor possibility that E00e could be an alternative Serial Killer to nyxnyxnyx (while I don't subscribe to this as being very likely, it shouldn't be discounted as a possibility). That being said, I think I'm willing to take a risk tonight and keep the likely Serial Killer alive in favor of lynching scum. #vote E00e I think nyxnyxnyx is the Serial Killer, and at this point it's likely mafia will want him gone just as much as town will, if not more. In keeping the SK alive for one more night, the Mafia have a target for a potential KP/RB that will be used on SK instead of mafia. This goes both ways, as the SK at this point is probably going to be extremely weary of the fact that no mafia have been killed, and will likely be aiming his KP tonight at those who he thinks to be most likely as mafia. Tonight is a fairly crucial night for both of these factions to move against each other, and for that reason, it is in our best interest to go for a mafia lynch rather than eliminate the lone enemy of our enemy, who may yet, by mutual interests in reducing mafia numbers, prove useful to us. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
##Vote E00e | ||
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E00e
88 Posts
I really dont think you should lynch me over nyx. I was called town many times earlier and nyx as SK seemed like a popular idea on day2 and nyx was nearly lynched day 1 and did not even try to make sense today. Even if you have suspicion on me now it really does not make sense to change who you want to lynch so drastically. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
##unvote ##vote E00e | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On October 19 2013 06:35 E00e wrote: Sleeping time is approaching for me (~1.5 hours) and I dont want to be lynched after that because I could not defend myself against new accusations. If im not lynched today we can go over me again it tomorrow. I really dont think you should lynch me over nyx. I was called town many times earlier and nyx as SK seemed like a popular idea on day2 and nyx was nearly lynched day 1 and did not even try to make sense today. Even if you have suspicion on me now it really does not make sense to change who you want to lynch so drastically. It's not all that drastic. I've had you listed as mafia for most of the day. As I said before, and as GGTeMpLaR sagely pointed out, nyxnyxnyx is an isolated player. If we all bandwagon him now we won't learn much of anything. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
GGTemplar: Balla24/E00e were both in a mafia circle alongside onlywonderboy, however onlywonderboy has made what I believe to be pro-town contributions today that I noted in my previous post. Both Balla24/E00e have given me no such vibe. In fact, the only distinguishing factor between Balla24/E00e for me at this point is the quantity at which they post and give their thoughts. What pro town contributions do you think he's made? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 19 2013 06:50 Balla24 wrote: Ugh... how the fuck is onlywonderboy being called more useful than me (no offense onlywonderboy)? All he has done is post either agreement with Seuss. Or random very unlikely scum possibilities. Now again, I'm not going to call out scum. I defend myself when asked AND i am questioning other people. The other candidates barely provide reasoning for their actions and their defenses are barely there. GGTemplar: What pro town contributions do you think he's made? His posts on pg 28/29 read town to me. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 19 2013 06:57 Bereft wrote: I don't think E00e is scum (anymore). I'd be more confident in a Balla or July vote for our mafia candidates, or nyx if we choose to go the SK route. I don't like July617 for today. I would rather Balla24 or nyxnyxnyx over July617. I've given my reasons. | ||
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