EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIX - Page 3
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
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idk why I said strike. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 18 2013 07:29 E00e wrote: @GGTemplar Thats not fair to me. I explicitly say that I dont want to discuss the cop thing again and i question Balla for saying that only one of us two could be mafia. I'm not condemning you as mafia right now. You're just in one of the mafia circles I've come up with as a possibility. Once I get around to including analysis of July617's and SagaZ's early game play, I'll likely have two or three mafia circles to work with with hopefully a possible overlap as being the most safe lynch for the day. In all fairness though, you questioning Balla24 for saying that doesn't exactly clear you both from being mafia together. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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These are obviously not going to be infallible circles and I could be wrong, but they're the best I have to go with. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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pg 8 istandwithmitt instantly jumped on Sagaz after his post. Given istandwithmitt's wildcard play this game, what he did here could mean anything. July617 jumped onto istandwithmitt for his play. Maybe be defending SagaZ here, maybe not. Then a series of RNG arguments I still have trouble understanding due to formatting so I will move past them. pg 10 E00e says it isn't reasonable to immediately vote for Sagaz (which is actually a fair point), then proceeds to say he likes my giving thoughts (which I find a little off because my initial thoughts were pretty stupid as player345 and Bereft eventually pointed out). July617 has a brief exchange with E00e On October 14 2013 17:29 July617 wrote: I dont think anyone is sidetracked, I just think we need to talk more so we can get idea's of the active players and a direction in which to go towards . Preferably a sane one. Doesn't really mean much, it's just fluff. player345 explodes on E00e. July617 interjects to calm player345/E00e exchange down. SagaZ elaborates more on his initial post with some possible extrapolation. pg 13 istandwithmitt switches off SagaZ onto playerboy345 without reason. Unsure what to make of this wildcard play still. onlywonderboy comments on his bad play but notes it could be bad town or bad mafia. Can't make anything of this. Next page istandwithmitt elaborates he thinks playerboy345 is scummier than SagaZ without reason. SagaZ makes a vague post questioning istandwithmitt's play that almost feels suspiciously forced On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior? SagaZ further hypothesizes a "weird triangle" between playerboy345/istandwithmitt/E00e. (?) July617 town reads OdinOfPergo, says this as well ? On October 15 2013 07:39 July617 wrote: like i said again in a previous post we should be talking more but like E00e said we'll have a hard time finding mafia without actual evidence to back it up . So i've really got nothing so far. I'm just trying to read everyone safely and calmly. Next page, July617 takes an indecisive stance on SagaZ On October 15 2013 18:11 July617 wrote: @seuss I'll give you that , my past five posts over and over again have been the pretty much the same thing, only because I really don't have an idea of who I should focus my attention to. Yes istandwithmitt is an easy lynch because of how he's acting but I believe there are better lynches out there. As to who ? I'm not so sure, I wish i could say SagaZ but he could just be playing bad town . And Whether it is bad town play or he's secretly mafia, I can't lean to either side without an explanation from him . SagaZ very suspicious of nyxnyxnyx. When Seuss pings July617, he wants you to include Vonthin along with July617. Agrees with istandwithmitt on playerboy345 as #1 mafia, deflects off of E00e. #2 mafia read at this point is onlywonderboy. onlywonderboy leans towards July617 as mafia, doesn't want to lynch istandwithmitt (thinks he is just a poor town - common opinion). SagaZ pings istandwithmitt as a Serial Killer or 70% mafia. Says Vonthin is at least defending himself unlike July617 who still hasn't said shit. July617 joins on the istandwithmitt bandwagon. SagaZ elaborates his disapproval of playerboy345's stance on E00e. SagaZ then switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617 and defends Vonthin. July617 offers a somewhat fluffy emotional defense: On October 16 2013 07:14 July617 wrote: Seus, I have nothing left to give you, Im bashing my head on the desk trying to figure out what I can do to make you see that I am town . I explained my vote on mitt and yet you still seem to believe i'm mafia, even going as far as saying you'd bet your "virtual life" on it . I don't know what to say, I've tried explaining myself but you just continue to call it useless and meaningless, if that's how you see it then so be it . I have nothing else to say to you because It seems like your stuck on this tirade of me being mafia, you asked me for my opinion and i gave it to you . Yeah I jumped on the bandwagon, because at this point mitt is no use to us as a town player, he continues to write even less then myself and he doesn't seem to care anymore, why are we keeping him around then? You're saying he's contributed more than me ? I'm doing what you asked me to do in your previous post, I gave my opinion and now i'm getting attacked again by you for the one thing you wanted me to do . pg 18 Balla24 directs off of Vonthin/July617 onto nyxnyxnyx. However, he then goes on to question Seuss why July617/Vonthin can't be mafia together. SagaZ switches his vote to Vonthin without much reasoning at all. Very suspicious of SagaZ/July617 connection at this point, most solid lead so far to suggest they are together. And with that, Day 1 ends. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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GGTeMpLaR
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The more likely scenario from this information is a July617-SagaZ connection. There are a lot of "weak" points that cumulatively add up to support this possibility. First, July617's entry into the thread is defending SagaZ from istandwithmitt. Later, the quoted July617 post on SagaZ is a 100% tentative read on SagaZ. Next, when Seuss pings July617 as a likely mafia candidate, SagaZ suggests that he should include Vonthin as well for acting no different than July617. Now this is where it gets tricky - SagaZ likes how Vonthin is trying to defend himself and dislikes how July617 isn't even trying to defend himself, so SagaZ switches his vote from istandwithmitt to July617. When July617 makes his large post which is mostly an appeal to emotion with little to no substance what-so-ever, SagaZ switches his vote from July617 to Vonthin with little to no reason why. This is the biggest reason I think that SagaZ/July617 might be mafia together. That being said, who could the 3rd mafia in this relationship be? Well, it's really weak from Day 1 data, but I think E00e is the most likely third party. Note that I haven't gone into great detail comparing these patterns from Day 1 with information from Day 2 like I did with my first mafia circle. That being said, I am much less confident in my mafia circle of SagaZ/July617/E00e than I am of my mafia circle of E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24. I think it's time for some other people to contribute and give some thoughts on my ideas so I can get a better idea of where I ultimately stand for the upcoming vote. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 19 2013 00:36 Balla24 wrote: and wtf man... get off my back... this is the second time you've voted directly after me directly like me with very little other information. I only wanted to use my vote as a pressure vote and you trying to start a train like this makes it hard. This looks so forced as a bus. I am more and more sure of the E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24 circle every day. I am trying to take a step back to make sure I'm not tunnel visioning on this theory so I can be right, but I can't help noticing these connections. Hopefully they are not inspired by my confirmation bias. On October 19 2013 00:39 onlywonderboy wrote: I'm pretty suspicious of SagaZ at this point. He very well have been busy, but coming back to make one impassioned post doesn't clear him in my eyes. I'm interested to see if he's able to participate in any of the conversations going on around lynching time. That's generally where a lot of useful information comes out. Although it seems we are going pretty much all in on nyx at this point. Which, I don't have an issue voting for nyx (I think he's kind of scummy), but I don't want to start the bandwagon too early when new information may come to light. And of course I disagree with SagaZ's analysis of me. I find it so weird he can say all my posts have been useless when Seuss is claiming they are pretty good, just not a lot of them. I find it interesting they can have such different opinions on my posts. More intra-circle busing going around? Maybe, maybe not. Just note these interactions between onlywonderboy-E00e-Balla24. On October 19 2013 00:42 Bereft wrote: what do you guys think of the fact that mafia decided to risk not blocking E00e when there's a decent chance he could be cop vs myself who has given any indication of a blue role? Well given my reads, I think it fits pretty well with the fact that he is likely mafia. On October 19 2013 00:48 istandwithmitt wrote: @Balla: there's no reason to blindly believe a roleblock claim. It's weird that he would claim in the first place (do vanillas get roleblocked??). I think his slipping wrt claim is the scummiest thing to happen in the game so far & I don't get it if you guys don't agree. ##unvote ##vote: Bereft I just have to laugh at this at this point because we're somewhat stuck with you now that we failed to lynch you Day 1. You're not 100% wrong that Bereft could be faking, but the way he's playing compared to others, there's just better lynches for mafia at this point and if we end up flipping a scum, we can go back and look at Bereft's interaction with them when it's more appropriate. I'm still not going to write you off as being scum/SK entirely, but there's better candidates for today for both roles so you've got a pass from me for today. Also, I really do want to re-emphasize that just because you're giving me lulz, I still disapprove of how random you're playing because it isn't really pro-town at all. On October 19 2013 01:16 onlywonderboy wrote: This post actually makes me believe SagaZ is town. He's right, I've been been way too quiet and have been coasting for most of this game. I've been quick to follow Seuss because he's town and I know he's an incredibly analytic thinker, but that's way too passive play and doesn't really do much to help the town. I tried to get some discussion going with differentiating the mafia/SK kill, but that broke down quick and it turned out I was likely wrong. Honestly I'm as surprised as him I'm flown under the radar and really that's just bad play on my part. I'm still working on rereading the pages to try and get more scum tells, but I can at least put forth I think SagaZ is town based off this post. This is weird for me, not weird as in mafia but weird as in I don't know what to make of it in light of my current read on you and E00e/Balla24. On October 19 2013 01:27 nyxnyxnyx wrote: #Vote: E00e I'm even more convinced you're a lone agent serial killer now than before. On October 19 2013 02:20 onlywonderboy wrote: I think a possible mafia combination is July/nyx/x. It seems unlikely to have two mafia players lurking so much, but they could easily be relying on the third mafia player to be the active face of their team. Nyx came under a lot of suspicion based on the way his voting went down (switching to Vonith for little reason and then him turning town). Plus him and July were getting pressured heavily by Odin. July actually goes out of his way to defend nyx's vote because it would be a bad play for the mafia. I mean, in a vacuum it makes him look suspicious, but the bandwagon on that vote was pretty strong maybe they thought it wouldn't be too hard to hide among the other townie voters. Also there is the possibility nyx could act as a martyr for the an active mafia player to gain tons of credibility in the town. I mean clearly it's not the cleanest play on the mafia's part, but having two players come under suspicion by Odin early could definitely make them panic. It's certainly a different theory than most people have brought up, but even if I'm wrong the conversation that spawns around it can certainly be valuable. You're doing a good job of ruining my confidence in my theory that you are mafia with Balla24-E00e so I dislike this post for that reason =(. I don't think you're my lynch for today though because of it. Another post coming shortly. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 19 2013 05:40 Bereft wrote: I guess the question that faces us now is that if we think nyx is the SK (as I think there's a very slim chance he's scum), would we prefer to target him instead of a potential scum read? if he's our safest bet right now at avoiding a mislynch I would be fine with it. I've given my thoughts onto why nyxnyxnyx is our most likely candidate for a SK. I think if he isn't a SK, he is more likely town than scum due to what seems to be a lack of strong connections with others. The benefit of lynching nyxnyxnyx if he is the SK right now could be a reduction in KP that would hit a town. However, it can go both ways as it's also a possibility that if nyxnyxnyx is the SK and we keep him alive, he could hit a mafia (which is somewhat less likely from a numerical perspective than hitting town, but still possible and would help town immensely). For this reason, I think nyxnyxnyx is definitely a safe lynch for today, but is he the safest lynch in light of this fact that he could also hit a mafia for us? Maybe he is. Who do I suggest are viable alternatives to nyxnyxnyx? Not our confirmed town Seuss (obviously). Not our wildcard istandwithmitt for reasons I gave in the previous post. Not Bereft, who appears to be the most confirmed town based on his play, in addition to reasons I gave in the previous post. July617 is a possible candidate due to his suspicious behavior and lack of activity, but there are more suspicious players I think with a similar lack of activity. I wouldn't lynch July617 just yet because he's a less likely scum in my eyes. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. SagaZ has been under a lot of suspicion since the start of the game, and rightly so. I disapprove of his appeal to emotion at the beginning of the large post he made here: On October 18 2013 15:25 SagaZ wrote: I want to give a big and heartfelt apologize to the town, this day has been dramatically bad and busy. it is almost 3.30 am and i have to wake up at 6 tomorrow. I'm in no condition to make super detailed analysis but I'll give my toughs on what's going on so far. Fortunately I'll be home earlier tomorow. I find the "preemptive excuse" very suspicious, and further, the connections I drew between SagaZ and July617 lead me to think he is a likely mafia candidate. However, like July617, he isn't at the top of my scum list. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. onlywonderboy would probably have been in my top 3 lynch candidates for today, however for reasons I gave in the previous post, I think he is off the chopping block for the upcoming lynch. We will have more information to work with regarding him on Day 3 depending on who flips what. That leaves Balla24 and E00e as the last two possibilities for alternative lynches to nyxnyxnyx. Balla24/E00e were both in a mafia circle alongside onlywonderboy, however onlywonderboy has made what I believe to be pro-town contributions today that I noted in my previous post. Both Balla24/E00e have given me no such vibe. In fact, the only distinguishing factor between Balla24/E00e for me at this point is the quantity at which they post and give their thoughts. For this reason, I would suggest that if we don't lynch nyxnyxnyx today, E00e would be the next choice over Balla24. Balla24 is at least posting a decent quantity of posts so we have a lot of information to work with on Day 3 regarding him and his reads, and we will likely continue to gather more information from him on Day 3 if his activity into Day 3 remains consistent. However, E00e is much less revealing as to his reads and reasons for them. For this reason, while I have strong scum reads on both of them at the moment, I think from a pure information-gathering perspective, Balla24 would be more useful to keep alive than E00e at this point. Further, it has been noted that there is a minor possibility that E00e could be an alternative Serial Killer to nyxnyxnyx (while I don't subscribe to this as being very likely, it shouldn't be discounted as a possibility). That being said, I think I'm willing to take a risk tonight and keep the likely Serial Killer alive in favor of lynching scum. #vote E00e I think nyxnyxnyx is the Serial Killer, and at this point it's likely mafia will want him gone just as much as town will, if not more. In keeping the SK alive for one more night, the Mafia have a target for a potential KP/RB that will be used on SK instead of mafia. This goes both ways, as the SK at this point is probably going to be extremely weary of the fact that no mafia have been killed, and will likely be aiming his KP tonight at those who he thinks to be most likely as mafia. Tonight is a fairly crucial night for both of these factions to move against each other, and for that reason, it is in our best interest to go for a mafia lynch rather than eliminate the lone enemy of our enemy, who may yet, by mutual interests in reducing mafia numbers, prove useful to us. | ||
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##Vote E00e | ||
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On October 19 2013 06:50 Balla24 wrote: Ugh... how the fuck is onlywonderboy being called more useful than me (no offense onlywonderboy)? All he has done is post either agreement with Seuss. Or random very unlikely scum possibilities. Now again, I'm not going to call out scum. I defend myself when asked AND i am questioning other people. The other candidates barely provide reasoning for their actions and their defenses are barely there. GGTemplar: What pro town contributions do you think he's made? His posts on pg 28/29 read town to me. | ||
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On October 19 2013 06:57 Bereft wrote: I don't think E00e is scum (anymore). I'd be more confident in a Balla or July vote for our mafia candidates, or nyx if we choose to go the SK route. I don't like July617 for today. I would rather Balla24 or nyxnyxnyx over July617. I've given my reasons. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
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On October 19 2013 07:02 E00e wrote: @GGTemplar You're line of reasoning has me as the most probable mafia read along side Balla. You call me a strong mafia read by the process of elimination but is it really so strong? Even if i am the most probable mafia the actual probability could be low. You even had me as a light town read on day 1. So this is solely based on day 2. Contrary to that you are very very convinced of nyx making nyx a more secure kill. What is the information you would get out of my death? What will change for you if come out as town or mafia? I dislike that my defense so far is more about other people than me, maybe I can think of more. Strong or not, it's the best I have. The information from your death would be contingent on the night kills so it's hard to say. You're actually probably right that nyxnyxnyx is a more confirmed kill at this point, I'll grant you that. On October 19 2013 07:28 E00e wrote: And why am I even in a circle with onlywonderboy? Do we have any kind of suspicious interaction? The reasons for this are in the large post series I made regarding the likely mafia circles. That being said, I like that you're actually fighting back and being inquisitive. I might come to regret this, but I'm willing to go for the safer lynch today. ##Unvote Perhaps I am being greedy in hoping that if we leave nyxnyxnyx alive tonight the mafia-SK will target each other, but I would have liked to think it would be a worth-the-risk town victory. However, you're right to point out the risks should we not kill nyxnyxnyx and we end up losing another 2 town tonight. If we don't kill nyxnyxnyx today, it's true we could win big, but we could also lose big. I think it's best for me to be risk-averse here rather than go all-in for the jackpot. ##Vote: nyxnyxnyx | ||
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On October 19 2013 11:33 nyxnyxnyx wrote: pro reads guys not as pro as your town play | ||
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On October 14 2013 16:50 GGTeMpLaR wrote: I think between SagaZ and istandwithmitt, at most one of them is mafia. SagaZ's first post is somewhat suspicious but istandwithmitt instantly going so hard on him is just as suspicious because it seems like such an easy target at that point. There's no way they're both mafia together. It's possible both are town, but if we gain information that one of them is mafia, it would clear the other as town I'd say. I was afraid the entire game this post early on would come back to bite me lol SK why did you shoot me btw? | ||
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