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On October 07 2013 04:43 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
There's 1 guaranteed scum inside the cop claims and if we don't lynch scum today it's game over for town.
The right play in my opinion is lynching the one-man scumteam - deciding who we think that is, and lynching it with fire. In this way we remove 1 KP from the game and 1 player not aligned with town and even if scum hit two people tonight, we still have a chance tomorrow. If we hit town with the lynch the game is over. If Koshi had come back and said the cop claim was a fakeclaim I probably would be agreeing to what Austin is suggesting, but VE absolutely has the right of it now. One of Koshi or Solstice is guaranteed scum. You don't get better than a 50% shot. I honestly don't even care if it turns out the scummer here is a member of the non-Bangers. You absolutely positively get better than a 50% shot.
You telling me that CR is 50/50?
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VE. I agree that we want to hit the remaining MCB. WoS doesn't look as good for that slot as I previously thought, and he's tied up in the cop stuff because one claimed cop says WoS is confirmed.
Would you look at CR, look at SnB and Palmar's filters, and tell me whether you think:
(1) CR is mafia
(2) CR is > 50/50 mafia
(3) CR is a decent fit for MCB
Specifically, CR posting before the D3 lynch, that Palmar is scum but wants to save him. Or that Palmar is scum but doesn't give as much information as other scum so we should lynch others. That post.
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On October 07 2013 04:46 Pandain wrote:
Your reasons are extremely weak.
First, remember his day 1 and 2 play are extremely town and I absolutely loved them although some of the reasons were wrong. They contributed original thought and showed a new perspective which is indicative of town.
Your mainly concerned with his day three play, which I will admit is a lot less and worse but it's not scum. I mean look at me, I know some of you even accuse me of this but there's no real reason to try during this day phase when we already found in my eyes a 95% scum.
S0lstice has not convinced me in the least bit and probably never will unless there is substantial evidence that Koshi is scum. I have had no scum reads in Koshi and he has been playing like an actual cop not like a cop faking it. Pandain. I have two goals this game.
(1) win
(2) Have VA be wrong about stuff
And sometimes, (2) is more important than (1). I really, really, really need you be town. Or else I will be sad.
So please, discuss with me about how Koshi has been playing like an actual cop?
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On October 07 2013 04:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Actually it doesn't now that I'm thinking about it. We're at
7-1-3 right now I think. If we lynch the scum in the cop claims it's either
7-0-3 or 7-1-2
Assuming worst case (7-1-2) then tonight we could be looking at 3KP if DriveBy was used...making
4-1-2
So the game isn't OVER, per se, but we're definitely in a bad situation assuming scum kill the real cop and 2 of the confirmed town (Me/rayn/Oats if Koshi is cop, Me/Wave if s0L is cop) If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight.
Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town
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On October 07 2013 04:52 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 04:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Actually it doesn't now that I'm thinking about it. We're at
7-1-3 right now I think. If we lynch the scum in the cop claims it's either
7-0-3 or 7-1-2
Assuming worst case (7-1-2) then tonight we could be looking at 3KP if DriveBy was used...making
4-1-2
So the game isn't OVER, per se, but we're definitely in a bad situation assuming scum kill the real cop and 2 of the confirmed town (Me/rayn/Oats if Koshi is cop, Me/Wave if s0L is cop) If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight. Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town The only way this is better for us is if scum removes some uncertainty by killing some townies the rest of town is unsure about. As is VE is likely dead since no vest and confirmed town by 'either' cop. They could probably kill Rayn too who people thought was town before being confirmed by Koshi. I'm not so sure it does help us and I don't know if that's worth the risk honestly. No. It's better for us. Look at each scenario:
koshi is a cop. solstice is mafia. koshi precision shoots solstice tonight (he says he has it available). Either:- koshi kills solstice (town favored)
- scum spend KP on a vest, put it on solstice (town favored, each team has 1 or 2 KP tonight, so spending ANY means a whole KP they don't get to use)
- scum spend KP on a bag of weed, roleblock koshi (same as above)
In all three cases where koshi is a cop and solstice is mafia, mafia either loses solstice OR loses 1 KP tonight in order to keep up the cop charade.
solstice is a cop. koshi is mafia. solstice says he has no more precision shot and prius was hiro. So he Hollywood CPRs someone tonight. Either:- Scum shoot that dude (town favored)
- Scum doublestack that dude (he dies through protect, but still town-favored, 2 KP for 1 kill)
- Scum avoids the protection
- Scum spend KP to roleblock solstice (town favored)
With solstice a cop and koshi mafia, mafia either loses a KP tonight OR mafia chances are slightly reduced by 1 protect, but they still hit with all shots. In no scenario are we in WORSE shape.
ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS are better for town. Even if solstice is cop and protect misses, the odds are worse for scum tonight.
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VE. Tell me why we lynch into those two TODAY rather than maybe TOMORROW (or maybe not having to).
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On October 07 2013 04:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together? I assume some.
Nuclear.
Possibly older games like ... Liquid City? GSL 2 or the GSL 3 game? Pokemon PTP? Rockband? Apart from nuclear I don't remember any specific.
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Look at those scenarios. Tell me why town is better off lynching into the cops today than tomorrow.
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On October 07 2013 05:04 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:03 cakepie wrote:VOTE COUNT: s0Lstice (9) : Mr. Cheesecake, WaveofShadow, VayneAuthority, Chairman Ray, raynpelikoneet, Pandain, Koshi, Oatsmaster, VisceraEyesKoshi (1) : s0Lstice, Oatsmaster (X), austinmcc (X)Chairman Ray (0) : austinmcc (X), WaveofShadow (X)Mr. Cheesecake (0) : Oatsmaster (X)Pandain (0) : Koshi (X), VayneAuthority (X)VayneAuthority (0) : Chairman Ray (X)WaveofShadow (0) : Pandain (X)Not voting (1) : austinmcc + Show Spoiler [Details] +Lynch is in 24 hours. Voting is mandatory.
Currently s0lstice is set to be lynched!
If you see any votes out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it. Just looking at the votecount makes me feel really good. I can't really think of a time Town lynched town when the voting was almost unanimous like this. D2? The votes were split, but nearly unanimously on townies. It's different but same!
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On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly.
But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation.
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Like, regardless of who is truthful and who is lying, if we lynch NOT THEM SCUM, we have a pro-town night action GUARANTEED (either it goes off or scum waste KP stopping it).
And we have more info tomorrow.
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On October 07 2013 05:20 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation. Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%. Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE). It's not lower than 50.
If it's lower than 50 we're all awful and don't deserve to win anyway. Don't give me that. If you don't have a > 50% scumread on D4 outside of those 2.....
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On October 07 2013 05:25 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:21 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation. Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%. Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE). It's not lower than 50. If it's lower than 50 we're all awful and don't deserve to win anyway. Don't give me that. If you don't have a > 50% scumread on D4 outside of those 2..... Sorry Austin, it doesn't work that way. Just because you're 'sure' someone is scum doesn't actually make them so until they flip. My experience this game only proves that further. I don't care how right you've been or how right you feel you still are. You are not the entirety of the rest of town. The chances are lower than 50%. It doesn't make them so until they flip.
But you're telling me it's D4 and you have no > 50% mafia reads?
(50% is a little misleading, cuz it's not exactly even, but i hate BOTH cop lynches right now, because BOTH of them have played wonkily IMO and I don't have one that I really trust right atm.).
Like....WHERE IS THIS WoS?On September 29 2013 02:58 WaveofShadow wrote:
Seriously though let's be fair here. Ego boost since last few games aside, I wouldn't call myself Ace or anything. I don't consider myself awful anymore but I think I'm decent.
LXI, in which we both played Palmar, was a horrible game for me and was still pretty early in my mafia career. I don't think I've had a game that bad since (maybe one where I smurfed). You can check my profile for my games if you'd like to see my performance in any of them. The one who thinks he's decent. The one who thinks he can hunt mafia. (Also, for dramatic purposes, I need you to consider that Koshi/solstice is really weird and we don't know which is mafia).
WHERE IS FAKE ACE?
WHERE IS THIS VE?
On October 05 2013 05:34 VisceraEyes wrote:
GG Palmar. I would have nailed you tomorrow.
Austin, good shit. Thanks for having the nuts I couldn't find in my sack. YOU ARE STILL WELCOME AND I STILL HAVE TWO SITTING SNUG WITHIN MY OWN SACK.
AND THEY SAY TO LYNCH OUTSIDE THE COPS. BECAUSE WE'RE NOT AWFUL AND WE CAN FIND MAFIA. SCREW THIS WHOLE KOSHI/SOLSTICE BUSINESS FOR NOW, FORCE THEM TO DEAL WITH IT PARTWAY TONIGHT, FUN FUN FUN FUN FUN.
Is there really nobody you are MORE confident in than a cop claimer?
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On October 07 2013 05:29 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like I don't know what good it's going to do - half of the town thinks I'm irrational and incompetent, and won't listen to me. But whatever - if you can convince me that you're the cop then I won't vote to lynch you. I hope you're rational. I think you're competent.
You're also in a shitty spot because right now, in the Venn diagram of "confirmed townies," you happen to be the only person square in the middle.
It's not that you're irrational or incompetent, it's that this is a very divisive game right now. Both sides make sense and don't make sense.
However, there are options beyond lynch koshi and lynch solstice. And I truly, truly believe that it's a better option. And leaving both cops up HURTS scum tonight. HELPS town.
Does it help as much as lynching the scum claimer? No. Absolutely not.
But I'm more sure that we can lynch mafia outside the cops than in. And I think you should be too. (Also you WoS).
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On October 07 2013 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If we are lynching outside the cops we lynch Austin. That's so bad. Why? Don't be lazy. Why do you think it's bad?
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On October 07 2013 05:34 VisceraEyes wrote:
Austin even if I end up agreeing with you, we're not going to secure the votes required because ONE OF THE COP CLAIMS IS 100% SCUM. P'shaw. There are 24 hours left. MOST of the game actually IS townie. And this idea is PERFECTLY RATIONAL.
Heck, it changes the whole battlefield on scum. Koshi/solstice will STILL BE HERE. Instead of spending another 24 hours in Central Mindfucksville, this is proactive. Pushes the discussion elsewhere. Forces stances. Whether we kill scum or no today we still have more to go. Still need reads, more information, people playing the game. Here's a sticking point for scum and they have to take a stance, explain why this is a bad idea or why nobody but solstice or koshi could possibly be mafia let's not look elsewhere gaiz.
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On October 07 2013 05:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:38 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If we are lynching outside the cops we lynch Austin. That's so bad. Why? Don't be lazy. Why do you think it's bad? BECAUSE WE LOSE KOSHI ON THE NEXT NIGHT 100%! That's removing confirmed townies for a fucking KP in a game where people have vests.. Why is losing Koshi bad?
If we lose Koshi, we 100% know solstice's alignment.
WHY IS HAVING THE WHOLE SITUATION RESOLVED A BAD THING?
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On October 07 2013 05:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:41 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 07 2013 05:38 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If we are lynching outside the cops we lynch Austin. That's so bad. Why? Don't be lazy. Why do you think it's bad? BECAUSE WE LOSE KOSHI ON THE NEXT NIGHT 100%! That's removing confirmed townies for a fucking KP in a game where people have vests.. Why is losing Koshi bad? If we lose Koshi, we 100% know solstice's alignment. WHY IS HAVING THE WHOLE SITUATION RESOLVED A BAD THING? You are fucking idiot because when we lynch Solstice and he is scum we have me + Oats as confirmed town aswell. Besides Koshi. And we lynched scum. Your game is falling apart. We can lynch ANY of 4 scum. You're skipping things here, smoothing over them.
Why is Koshi dying bad? It confirms solstice as scum, and it confirms you and oats as town. In your "bad" scenario, Koshi getting shot, solstice gets lynched, you guys get confirmed, all of it 100%.
Why is it BAD?
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On October 07 2013 06:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
Austin find the last Banger. If you can find the last Banger I'll vote with you I promise. Hold your horses I have like 1/3 of my HW almost done and coming.
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On October 07 2013 05:41 VisceraEyes wrote:Okay I'm heading out guys. Austin, homework. Assume that myself, Wave and you are all confirmed town. Come up with scumteams and a lynch target outside the cop claims. Wave: you're on claim-duty. Pressure both claims, and get as much information out of BOTH of them as you can. This will help us out tomorrow IF we decide to leave them until tomorrow. For myself, I'm going to be watching and thinking and considering and I'll post my thoughts on the situation with WELL enough time to swing the lynch if I think that's what we need to do. Show nested quote +And Shepherds we shall be For thee, my Lord, for thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand Our feet may swiftly carry out Thy commands. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomeni Patri Et Fili Spiritus Sancti. 10-4.
Koshi
Koshi as cop confirms Koshi, VE, oats, rayn. In your scenario I am town and WoS is town.
That leaves: Pandain, VA, CR, Cheesecake, solstice.
Within that group, solstice MUST be mafia (claim). 3/4 of Pandain, VA, CR, Cheesecake MUST be mafia. This scumgroup hinges on Cheesecake. He's the one who called out solstice walkie-talkieing him.
1. Koshi and Cheesecake
If he's town, if we think this ISN'T a giant ploy and solstice's team fucked up in thinking CC was scum, then the scum team is Pandain/VA/CR/solstice. Splits in my head are initially solstice/Pandain/VA + CR or solstice/VA/CR + pandain.
1(a). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/pandain/VA + CR/Palmar/Snb
This scum team makes no sense. Pandain pushes VA over Palmar on D3. He can take cred saving FT and MAYBE lynching scum in Palmar, without giving up VA. Saving FT + bussing VA is just too much.
Moreover, VA is all up in Pandain's butt. Keeps calling Pandain mafia. This scum team is unlikely, as they're just too at each other's throats. Like...SnB pushes Palmar, but not spamming a whole day to get people onto him like Pandain does with VA. That's way way way too much commitment for a bus.
1(b). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/CR/Pandain + VA/Palmar/Snb
Here, Pandain's D3 push on VA makes more sense. VA can be scum but not on Pandain's team. And Pandain and VA get to be split apart. However, VA didn't seem to care if we lynched Palmar D3. He didn't say much, but he voted Palmar and seemed decently okay with it, never tried to shift the lynch to another target or just stick with FT. Therefore, I do not like this scenario.
1(c). Koshi, Cheesecake, solstice/CR/VA + Pandain/Palmar/Snb
In this situation, VA is actively going after the remaining scum from the other team. Pandain is trying to save FT and lynch VA D3, but gets forced onto Palmar, his scumbuddy.
However, VA today is unwilling to accept solstice as possible cop. In this case, VA is CRAZY distancing himself from solstice, even when other options present themselves (lynch koshi, lynch outside the two). I don't love that idea, but it's there.
Based on 1(a) giving a really weird Pandain bus on VA and sacrifice of solstice, I hate it. Based on the implications of (b) and the D3 lynch, I dislike it. I really do not see Palmar's teammate being entirely resigned to just let him go, when it was reasonable for people to stay on FT.
2. Koshi and Cheesecake
In this scenario, Cheesecake is outing solstice's PM, but is part of the other mafia team. He just wants solstice lynched, get cred, huzzah huzzah. With solstice and cheesecake scum, we need 2 mafia within CR/VA/Pandain.
I would personally argue that Pandain is town here. After yesterday morning, VA calling oats a great bulletproof target and just, in general, spewing nonsense, i do not think he's town. He's also trying to make me (confirmed town in these scenarios) look scummy, and just...he has not made the most sense lately. Like saying he was the clear mislynch for today when: (1) oats was set up yesterday; (2) two other players had more votes than him when he said that. So, no offense, I'm not considering VA town in these scenarios.
Pandain or CR is town here.
2(a). Koshi, Cheesecake, Pandain
If Cheesecake and solstice were on opposite teams, cheesecake outing solstice is REALLY weird. Too weird. Why not work together and backstab later? Why not at least get more info out of solstice and THEN backstab, letting everyone know he's mafia AND he gave up his team? So I'm assuming cheesecake/solstice same team, and doing this to try to secure someone for later game, a way for scum to "confirm" someone as town by dumping solstice.
Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + CR or Cheesecake/Solstice/CR + VA
Both VA and CR, whichever is on the solstice-team in Pandain-town world, are dumping solstice, hoping to survive a little bit and live with cheesecake, setting him up to carry it through. In each case, the one-man team is ALSO going after solstice, but doesn't actually KNOW that solstice is mafia. Again though, VA being okay with the Palmar lynch makes the first option more likely than the second.
2(b). Koshi, Cheesecake, CR
The cheesecake/solstice thing still applies. Now you're looking at
Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + Pandain or Cheesecake/Solstice/Pandain + VA
Pandain and VA are split, so that interaction doesn't help make something more likely here. Again, both the scumbuddy and the one-man team are going after solstice, and just solstice. And same thing with disliking VA/Palmar on the same team.
So what does Koshi cop mean? It hinges on Cheesecake.
IF you think he's Cheesecake, then the remaining mafia MUST be Solstice, Pandain, VA, and CR. And the likely setup is 1(c), with Pandain being the last MCB.
IF you think he's Cheesecake, then the remaining mafia are 2/3 of Pandain, VA, and CR. The scumteams I see being most likely there are Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + CR or Cheesecake/Solstice/VA + Pandain
IN THE KOSHI SCENARIOS, PANDAIN OR CR IS THE LAST MCB. IF YOU THINK CHEESECAKE, THEN THE LAST MCB IS PANDAIN
Okay. I need a moment. Going to post out the other options. Then gonna start really digging, because we can eliminate SOME options based on posts, just gotta look.
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EPT
