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@oats/acro
I think we can agree that waiting would have been the ideal move rather than outing me publicly. Outing me to the thread doesn't seem scum motivated to me though. Oats, you're chasing sub optimal play as if it were scum oriented play.
Scum oriented play: pretend to have been gone after reading the pm, reveal it to the scum qt. Have yamato drop real wifom bombs before he was "caught" and have members of the scum team express suspicion of him in preparation for the reveal of the red check. Then tell the other lords.
Acro's handling of the situation is bad if he is scum, and acceptable but sub optimal as town. At worst that he revealed is null, at best it's kind of townie.
@koshi
Why would you even ask that? You've also discounted all the possibilities of a vig that is not instant kill. What if he too only has one kp? What if he has 3? Why haven't you discussed that? Why assume he has anywhere around the 7ish we knew were required to kill gum shoe?
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On August 12 2013 23:28 Oatsmaster wrote:
No no Sharrant, the reason why I think its scummy that he outed you was that I felt that he didnt care about the check. Like Acro was thinking, "Ok, tell the thread yamato is scum, oh man, sharrant outed himself, oh well lets just mention that."
Its difficult to explain :/
I think I understand what you're getting at. I'll reflect upon this.
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I'm not sure how much of the insulting in the thread is playful, but after yamato's super happy .gif time, I'd appreciate if we could be a little more civil.
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On August 12 2013 23:34 Koshi wrote:
@Sharrant
A vig with a 1 KP shot? Or 3 KP shot? Like how stupid is that? A vig shoots people death, not hit them for 1 HP... I could see 3hp/5hp vig if the vig can shoot multiple times but then it is still stupid to shoot gumshoe unless for some reason you think gumshoe has 10 hp. While that doesn't make any sense at all because lords can only do 6 hp damage combined.
Also that's not even the point. The point is that iamp says that it is MOST LIKELY a vig. While it is most likely it is scum in his house knowing gumshoe has 1 hp.
but w.e. I drop it because everybody thinks iamp is town.
Before knowing that all the houses kp combined could not kill a vt, I might have a greed with you. But I see no reason to discount say, a multi shot 3 or 4 kp vig. I think that would be a great role. Either work with trusted lords or kill some one every 2 or 3 cycles.
And yes, iamp is easily the towniest person in the thread, look up a meta case against him from a previous game. He does have a very identifiable meta that distinguishes him as town.
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I'm on my phone, so I hope you all appreciate this even more.
@iamp
I have a special task for you. In the likely event that I do not survive the night, I must ask you to call any town member who aimed kp at me a jib jub. I have the highest respect for your ability to call people names, and that is why I come straight to you with this request.
@risen
Your paranoia is unwarranted and kind of hilarious. This seems like something you could get worked up about as town though. However my highlight of your case is easily (paraphrasing here): "my first reason for wanting to lynch sharrant is the same reasoning I had for lynching that townie. But this time it's right!"
If you want to believe I'm mafia, you have to
A) assume I started putting pressure on my scum buddy in post number one.
B) assume kush is mafia and I defended him to start the game. Or:
B) 2. Assume that I (as mafia) hard defended an easy mislynch of kush who had basically just thrown away a game that town had won and that I wouldn't want to lynch him on that reason alone.
C) assume I continued to bring up yamato twice when un pressured.
D) fake claim a cop check on yamato
E) tried to not tell the thread about the cop check.
F) decided not to take the time to gain town cred by waving my dick in his face when he came back to the thread.
I think that's all there is to say about that, unless someone has some questions
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Good morning, everyone.
Like Johnny said, I'm not going to be active for a while. I should be phone posting in about 12 hours, and hopefully posting from my laptop in 14ish.
On top of my one shot alignment check, I also had an HP check. I used it on Iamp thinking he had likely/would likely take damage. I was roleblocked. Not that that matters much given that he died last night.
Someone had mentioned interest in lynching into my house. I'm not particularly interested in that right now. I have very strong town reads on both Acrofales and Johnnywup.
With Kush his first post pm to me is enough to make me not want to lynch him today. I find that with him my initial read is correct, and any subsequent rethinking of his alignment (unless something very major happens) generally leads to the wrong conclusion about his alignment.
That said, I have read Acro's case on Kush, and it does have some merit. I am uninterested in lynching Kush unless something major happens.
Running late now: Vivax, SnB, Koshi, JrKirby/Mocsta are all persons of interest to me right now. Koshi has the strongest case in my eyes for being SK. Vivax never openly expressed his thoughts on Yamato (If I'm recalling correctly), but did so in PMs, this is suspicious to me. SnB has been such a non-factor that I feel he has a good chance of being scum. And JrKirby would have been my choice if not for Mocsta's replacement. Without the replacement he would be my for sure choice for lynch today,
Actual analysis will come when I'm not late for important things.
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How certain are you that I'm scum, vivax?
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Fucking phone ate my post. Here we go again.
@SnB
I was very confident in my read on acro, but I'm not stupid. I used my claim to confirm we had the same thought process, we did. The lie was to cover my ass if he was mafia.
Why wouldn't he shoot me? It's likely that mafia have some sort of framing mechanic in play. If he could guide me to a framed target either:
A) I give a green check on a mafia and give him town cred and if he ever dies I likely get lynched immediately. No shot needed for my death and if I flip before the mafia he gets cred to last to lylo.
B) I give a red check on a townie. He gets lynched. I get lynched. Town Just lost two lynches, and scum are free to shoot whoever they please.
On top of that I have the ability to pm two other people. He has to assume I told them to lynch him if I was rb'ed or killed. (i didn't though, because if either of them were mafia it could get both of us killed if he's town and johnny or kush was scum. He would have had to gamble either way, but one is safer and has higher reward and that option is framing.
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SnB I'm around but I don't want to make large posts until I can use my laptop. Talk to me.
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Okay, guys, just want to make it clear where I stand. I've been discussing lynching Vivax for some time, and felt like I was chasing my tail as I went back and forth on lynching him, to lynching SnB, to both being town, to both scum, and back around the circle over and over.
##Vote: Vivax
I don't think I need to go too in depth with this, as it seems the majority of lords have come to the same conclusion. He hasn't been loud like I used to expect from him. Nor does he show off the skills he recently has proven he has, in the last two town games we played together he immediately and undeniably showed his townieness in a way that few can. There's none of that here.
I'm just retyping my case on Koshi right now and adding in the new developments about him now. I will post it shortly.
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On August 12 2013 22:51 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2013 22:50 iamperfection wrote:On August 12 2013 22:47 Koshi wrote:On August 12 2013 22:35 iamperfection wrote:On August 12 2013 22:34 Koshi wrote:On August 12 2013 22:32 Onegu wrote:
Btw its not just Snb and Vivax absent, Jrkirby hasnt posted, and I think koshi also just posted for the first time. THAT REMINDS ME OF YOUR SHITTY CASE ON ME. HAHAHAHA You scum Onegu? lol speaking of shitty cases maybe you should go read the one you just posted. You can only claim stupid or scum tbh. What vigi was ever going to shoot gumshoe? herpderp I better us my vigi shot on a 1 hp lurker (or at least very low) Like how is that even the most plausible reason why gum died???? Most likely is that one in your House is scum or you are scum. Like 99% scum killed gumshoe, 1% a retarded vigi. listen you retard how the fuck would the vigi know that gum had 1 hp IT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY LOW AFTER ALL LORDS SHOT HIM? Ok maybe not 1 hp. But it wasn't going to be 15 HP. wtfff? Like how do you even refuse to see that this doesn't make sense? And of couse nobody in the thread is paying attention to me when I am actually finding scum............ Typical.
This is the post that caught my attention and made me really analyze Koshi. In this post he talks about how stupid it would be for a vigi to shoot gumshoe, but his reasoning is almost entirely based on health values.
(Note: Some of this may read awkwardly, but it's the information we have now. While we know Iamp is not the vigi, he potentially could have been at the time)
Now, as far as I know, no other house aside from Iamp's had claimed the use of a health check. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). Iamp could not have shared that information with anyone outside of his house during the night phase (unless he's mafia, but he's not). So there's only 2 possible people that could be a vigi AND know the health value (Iamp and the two house members that aren't gumshoe).
At best, our vigi can know of one shot actually being fired at gumshoe (from being a lord himself) or he may have no actual confirmation of any shots being fired, but think it was likely. Or he may think it was entirely WIFOM and they fired at their own targets/someone else etc.
This is combined with the fact that our vigi would only be able to guess at someone's total health based off his shot value, and the lord KP value.
Koshi's comments all assume that the vigi has knowledge that gumshoe has 7 health. They all come with the assumption that the vigi knows this. They all come with the assumption that any blue role that can damage someone MUST be stronger than all six lords combined.
Now, this is all post hoc reasoning. There's two main reasons I could see this come about: A) he has trouble seperating current knowledge from past knowledge, and lacks the ability to construct a proper narrative in his head. B) He knew about the health or had some thus far unexplained knowledge of KP values. That road leads to a likely SK or mafia.
He also never offers a reason why mafia would kill gumshoe aside from just him having 1 hp. Him having one hp is bullshit. Complete bullshit. If gumshoe survived the night we would have been forced to lynch him, or use a partial night's KP on him.
You'd have to assume very poor play from the mafia to have shot him. This looks very, very unlikely to be a mafia shot.
What about a serial killer? It's possible. They could have tried to hide their kill like he mentioned he had done in a different game, seems quite reasonable. It's worth being wary of a vigi claim in the future because of this.
What about an actual vigi? Also possible. Likely he's multishot with 4-5 kp, maybe even as low as 3. He would have claimed if he were single shot, or at least likely would have. It's also possible we have a JOAT, potentially even one weakened in some way, or a fun role.
Fun role being something like: Sacrifice x HP for 2x KP. Or even one for one. That would explain a vigi that attacked him knowing he was weak, it would allow him to kill more people.
Mafia killing gumshoe seems like the least likely to me, albeit that is somewhat subjective. But the fact that he goes on so long about the death (generally a sign that one is linked to the event), let's it dominate his focus down to only paying attention to people talking about the event around that time, and is using either post hoc reasoning OR has unexplained knowledge means it's quite possible he's mafia or SK.
What else incriminates him from this?
For starters, this big glaring hole in his logic.
There's four people in the house. Two are dead. Both were townies. So that means either Grackaroni or Xatalos are guarnateed scum according to him. But he's never commented about this or that it through. Why not? He's made a bunch of posts about the incident, but never thought about how it would be related to the two people in the house?
This makes me think that if he doesn't flip SK, that it is guaranteed one of Grack/Xatalos are scum because he didn't want to continue and incriminate one of his teammates. I don't see a townie thinking about this scenario, making 5 posts about it, having things play out as they have, and never revisiting his thoughts he fought so much about.
He comes close, mentioning Iamp's death and possible vigi/leak, but then doesn't apparently think about how that effects the remaining house. If he's 99% sure there's scum out of the two people left (his words) why not look into them more? Because he just wanted something to talk about before, he wasn't thinking critically about it, that's why he ignored so many situations.
Couple this with his jumping on my half-bandwagon that Risen tried to start, but then never realizing that even Risen thinks he was wrong. He hasn't shown any interest aside from saying "Sharrant is scum because of Risen's case". He hasn't looked at the responses, the analysis by other people, or even Risen's own current thoughts.
I'm less sure about Koshi being the SK, I'd bet on him being scum though. He's the only person aside from Vivax I would lynch, and I'm not longer which one I'm more confident about being scum. Most of this started from him being SK, so some of it is a little awkward, and I'd cut it out but I think it's useful showing the thought process. The important part is the logic hole and his reaction to the case on me.
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Hey, Mocsta, who do you want to lynch most right now? Who do you think is the towniest person there is? Why on both of those?
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On August 17 2013 14:25 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2013 14:19 Sharrant wrote:
Hey, Mocsta, who do you want to lynch most right now? Who do you think is the towniest person there is? Why on both of those? hey, why so useless with all that town cred you have?
Fine. I'm too excited.
I have a red check on Mocsta. You're welcome.
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On August 17 2013 14:27 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2013 14:26 Sharrant wrote:On August 17 2013 14:25 s0Lstice wrote:On August 17 2013 14:19 Sharrant wrote:
Hey, Mocsta, who do you want to lynch most right now? Who do you think is the towniest person there is? Why on both of those? hey, why so useless with all that town cred you have? Fine. I'm too excited. I have a red check on Mocsta. You're welcome. well this is gonna be a fun day it looks like. so you are claiming to be an actual detective. you also have the ability to PM two people outside of the normal house PMs. anything else I'm missing?
Yeah, you could also read the thread sometime. The two people are the other people in my house. Seriously, even Risen had to print a retraction because of it. Get with the times.
Yes, I'm a detective that alternates between alignment check (odd days) and hp check (even days).
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On August 17 2013 14:31 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2013 14:28 Sharrant wrote:On August 17 2013 14:27 s0Lstice wrote:On August 17 2013 14:26 Sharrant wrote:On August 17 2013 14:25 s0Lstice wrote:On August 17 2013 14:19 Sharrant wrote:
Hey, Mocsta, who do you want to lynch most right now? Who do you think is the towniest person there is? Why on both of those? hey, why so useless with all that town cred you have? Fine. I'm too excited. I have a red check on Mocsta. You're welcome. well this is gonna be a fun day it looks like. so you are claiming to be an actual detective. you also have the ability to PM two people outside of the normal house PMs. anything else I'm missing? Yeah, you could also read the thread sometime. The two people are the other people in my house. Seriously, even Risen had to print a retraction because of it. Get with the times. Yes, I'm a detective that alternates between alignment check (odd days) and hp check (even days). I think you are town; so Im going to believe the check is valid. I led the lynch on Vivax; why check me?
I can't read your posts, and it makes it so I can never read you in a game. I found Kirby scummy, but I know I can't read you, so I used the check on you to simplify matters.
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On August 17 2013 14:48 s0Lstice wrote:
this is gonna be a long 48 hours
Let's just pretend it's tomorrow. Who do you want to lynch now that Mocsta has died?
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Oh, yeah, I'll claim it. My KP went to Koshi.
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On August 17 2013 14:51 Mocsta wrote:I promise thats not me. What I am is this http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lpbc3pWRCV1qf42pr.jpgI eat mother fuckn baby seals for breakfast... The most disapointing thing about Sharant, is that instead of qusetioning why I led the lynch on Vivax; he insta-votes and assumes theres no way to falsify a detective check. I get he can't read me; but its still disappointing.
Already thought lots about it, that's why I didn't particularly mention you since you've replaced in. But let's see:
You
A)Replaced someone I found scummy
B)Have a red check against you
C)Are a player I can't read
So yes, you totally could have been framed, but I find it very unlikely, and entirely worth the risk.
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On August 17 2013 15:00 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2013 14:55 Sharrant wrote:On August 17 2013 14:51 Mocsta wrote:On August 17 2013 14:45 Mocsta wrote:![[image loading]](http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQb5uuvFxa_2lc1rdBqGnI4dF7GheIjlVS943tQFyeB0xPmT9jO) I promise thats not me. What I am is this http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lpbc3pWRCV1qf42pr.jpgI eat mother fuckn baby seals for breakfast... The most disapointing thing about Sharant, is that instead of qusetioning why I led the lynch on Vivax; he insta-votes and assumes theres no way to falsify a detective check. I get he can't read me; but its still disappointing. Already thought lots about it, that's why I didn't particularly mention you since you've replaced in. But let's see: You A)Replaced someone I found scummy B)Have a red check against you C)Are a player I can't read So yes, you totally could have been framed, but I find it very unlikely, and entirely worth the risk. Its OK man. Marv can't read me either when I replace in a game. Many did find jrkirby scummy; so i dont hold it against you either. Just note if you take the time to read his filter again.. did he actaully push a scummy agenda; especially now we have more flips for context.. or was he just a guy that was thinking otuside the status quo? Personally thats where I saw him.. but to each his own.
If you're town, stick around and do your best for the town today and then we can trust your effort when you flip.
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On August 17 2013 15:19 Onegu wrote:
Yeah I had a heavy town read on jrkirby based on meta, and everything mocsta has done since comeing in the thread has led me to believe he was town. He was very early comeing into PMs saying vivax was scum and the main reason I took another look at vivax to decide to change my vote to him. Also why would you not check koshi? And why go against the lords and say you were ok to shoot johnny then not shoot him? I posted last night you were most likely cop, I doubt you have HP check powers though. And I believe you were roleblocked by vivax makeing you town, but who you checked I dont understand much.
I told all the lords I would not shoot Johnny. I told every one that asked me, I would not shoot Johnny or Kush.
Koshi is the obvious person for me to check, so he's the person I would expect to be framed. Besides, I wanted to lynch him without a red check on him because I think he's scum. I thought Kirby was scum, but Mocsta unreadable, so it made more sense to confirm my read of Kirby.
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EPT
