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On July 16 2013 09:51 hzflank wrote:
Because if you know which faction took out whom then you must be scum.
And if I have a theory of it? What does that tell us?
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This is good. It looks like scum is taking Onegu's FoS and running with it.
Going to dive hz's filter now.
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Onegu, I'm repeating this now so it will hopefully sink in by the time the lynch comes around.
I believe it is currently the Mafia's plan to take your case and parlay it into a mislynch. Once I refute your case, please don't be overwhelmed by confirmation bias of random people coming out of the woodwork agreeing with you. They are likely scum.
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On July 16 2013 09:58 hzflank wrote:
So you suddenly think I am scum because I caught your slip?
If you think that's a slip, I guess that's your right. I thought you were a better player, so the more reasonable explanation to me at this point is that you're the SK (omg you slipped because you knew it was SK and not vig after the kill) or scum than town.
Although it looks like Onegu is going to be in full tunnel mode despite the obvious flaws in his train-of-thought during the downtime.
On July 15 2013 10:13 Onegu wrote:Sorry hope you guus dont mind if I post as I go, some of it may have been addressed already but I want to give my take like it just happend. I would have been all over the stim lynch. I really want to lynch all liars. Then hurricane says Show nested quote +Immediately, the first thing I thought of was that there is no way in hell the scum QT would let him continue ranting and raving like this. They would have told him immediately to chill out and claim he was joking too, or something. Bolding because this is the first real revelation I've had on this case. There is no way you can know this my first game sometimes I would ask a question and not get a reponse for hours, so there is no way you should ever make this assumption.
It was unique analysis that I was bringing to the table. I would assume scum would be very active in the early stages of the game, laying plans and setting out to plot our demise. I don't think it's unreasonable to speculate in this manner, especially considering Onegu can confirm that I was right in my read (StiM / Onegu is not scum). At the least it's independent analysis and a null read. I'm actually pretty proud of that point.
On July 15 2013 11:04 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2013 03:21 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 17:01 Umasi wrote:
why is me thinking he's slightly towny a big deal though? I wouldn't say it's a big deal. I just wanted to see what evidence you had gathered to make your read, because it's useful for the town if you can help us identify Chrom as town. @Chrom: + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:17 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +@Chrom: Can you explain what this post means? On July 13 2013 13:23 Chromatically wrote:
If everyone who just randomly popped out to soft call me sum could actually give their opinions on the situation, that'd be great. I also have a nitpick with this post: On July 13 2013 14:04 Chromatically wrote:
Yes, we'll technically never be able to totally disprove the possibility that Stim is town. It's just far less likely. Look at what Stim has done.
Lie about his anger
Town motivation: none
Scum motivation: screwed up the explanation because the anger was faked in the first place
Martyr
Town motivation: none, far more likely that he just explains
Scum motivation: knows he can't explain, so he acts emotional to get people to switch I feel like the anger was definitely real, and StiM was trying play play Mr. Cool Cat by claiming that he was really in control the whole time, and just pretended to be angry. Still not clear what that motivation could have been, but the above 2x2 leaves out some key points and I feel you're making a bit more assumptions that you usually do... Several people suddenly posted to tell Stim that I could be scum, and then didn't actually give an opinion on Stim. It was really wierd. You've brought up this same idea a few times about Stim trying to "act cool", but I don't see any particular reason to believe it. Why do you? As I've said before, there will always be a possibility of a town explanation, it's just less likely. If Stim is town, he'll return with a clear explanation. If you want to bring up meta, town should have lynched Stim in XLII. He could have easily been scum, and I said as much in the obs. A more convincing point is that Stim never reacted this way to pressure in XLIII, even though several votes were thrown on him over the course (if I remember). Hypothetical: If Stim doesn't return, what will you do? If Stim hadn't have returned, I'd probably drop the issue entirely and focus my efforts elsewhere, anticipating a /replacement or mod action. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:28 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 16:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 16:02 Umasi wrote:
Alright, here, hurricane. Who do you think is worth voting at this time?
From your post, I got the gist that it'd be Superfluous or me. Is that correct? I'm still a bit mad at StiM for his post implying that it was our job to keep him entertained. I'm going to give myself some time to cool off on that, because I don't appreciate people quitting on my team (if he is in fact town). This is a time investment for everybody, and it's damn selfish of him to pack up his ball and go home after really light pressure. Townville: Kirby pressured me appropriately after my opener. I like that. He also seems to have the same attitude as me regarding the quick StiMwagon: On July 13 2013 13:31 jrkirby wrote:
2 votes land on a guy is quick succession, I'd be stupid if I weren't at least a BIT suspicious. As far as I can tell, stim is just acting like a bit of an idiot, is flustered, and frustrated. Doesn't seem like scumtell to me. You're free to have your vote, and I don't have a solid scumread on either of you, but I will be looking a bit more closely at your filters. hz is aggressively posting reads and seems to emulate my thoughts on the early Superfluous post: On July 13 2013 09:42 hzflank wrote:I think Jrkirby's and Sponge's opening posts had the same motivation: to get discussion moving. Both have done this and we have multiple discussions taking place. Since then, Sponge did a little coaching. Sponge has come under pressure from multiple people (for his opening post), and has dealt with it while being reasonably open. The only time that he has not been open is by refusing to post the other version of his opening post. Sponge did a little coaching again as he tried to stop Umasi from defending him. So far my read on Sponge has moved very slightly towards town. Since his opening, Jrkirby has attacked Sponge for his opening post, and done nothing else. That's fine because it is early and Jrkirby is pushing to get a reaction from someone. This is not scummy to me, null read. Umasi has defended Hurricane, which cannot be viewed as scummy at this point. Umasi has attacked Superfluous. I would say that this attack could be scummy as it is based on nothing, but it could just be to get Super to post more (he only has one post). Umasi then repeats that he thinks Super's post is scummy and votes for him. The problem I have with this is that Umasi claims Super's only post was scummy, when I do not think that it was. On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. If Umasi was looking for a reaction then I do not understand why he posted: On July 13 2013 08:59 Umasi wrote:
Where the hell are you. You popped in, gave a single post, that I think is scummy as crap, still haven't show back up. Pretty confusing, because the post you gave was irrelevant. How was Super's post scummy as crap? I do not think that Umasi is looking for scum, and if he is not just fishing for Super to respond then I think that Umasi is just looking for a neutral place to put his early vote. Unlike Jrkirby's, Umasi's vote is not a troll vote. I have a slight scum read on Umasi. Xzavier posted some decent thoughts (although he really didn't go out on any limbs): On July 13 2013 11:19 Xzavier wrote:On July 13 2013 08:33 Superfluous wrote:
While I agree that we should lynch someone if they are super scummy, I'd like to point out that voting for no lynch is an option. Assuming I'm interpreting the rules/setup right, mafia only has 1 kp so there's no immediate motive for lynching such as reducing kp. It may be a stronger play to not lynch and hope that cop(if there is one) gets a turn to check before lynch. It is a risk though because I believe we are not guaranteed to have a cop. Just an idea I wanted to throw out and get your guys' thoughts on. i know usami has touched on this, but i see voting for No-lynch is like sacrificing a townie or playing russian roullet for zero prize money. its just basically saying "i want to start this game a townie down" it seems silly to me, if somebody comes and gives me an ungodly reason for no-lynching ill hear it. but i see it as silly. Also from playing with usami before, hes a super fucking hyper aggressive person who needs like a single post to tunnel somebody for a full day, that can be bad. we need to keep our eyes open and looking at multiple people. As i learned my first game, a tunnel vision day1 can lead to a mislynch, or in this gametype, a no-lynch. Its far better to lynch scum, and thats what we should try to do. Even day1 we lynch either a lurker or our top scumread, if nobody has any strong scumreads, lynching the scummiest lurker is the best townplay day1. (it yields the highest chance of killing scum while creating the best pro-town enviroment) with that im also shocked of how active stim-addict is being. its nice to see a usual lurker picking it up leaving less for the scum to hide behind :D again, even Superfluous is at the top of my scumdar, he isnt high enough to deserve a vote yet. I want to lynch a lurker or superfluous depending on how he reacts to our posts and the events of the day. if the rest of it goes uneventful/no major scumslips i want to fuck up a lurker as i believe that to be the best pro-town action. Rainbows is active and is claiming credit for the StiM wagon. If StiM is town, as I suspect, I don't think scum would be claiming lead on an eventual green flip: On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Planet Neutral:I've found confusing material on Chrom that some may deem scummy (misrepresenting facts, leaping to conclusions, overblowing alignment-neutral mistakes). However, he also did his usual early game Poke'n'Prod, getting people to clarify their random claims that might otherwise have gone unchecked (very town). Umasi is incredibly active, and hunting. The logic leaps, confirmation bias, and clumsy attacks aren't really helping the town, however (other than to just provide really obvious pressure). If there was a shade between Green and Black, I'd use it because I think the three options for Umasi are 'Bad Town' 'Good Scum' and 'Good Town That I Just Have Trouble Reading For Whatever Reason'. Scum Central:Superfluous has a lot of ground to make up. I don't like people attacking him for his bad policy, but at the end of the day, that's not the only thing going against him. I really disagree with his reads, and that has to account for something: On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. These are some wierd-ass wierd reads (formatted in a list, might I add...). You give town reads to a large number of people based on almost nothing? You say that me and Umasi are actively scumhunting, and then say we're null? All followed by a sheep on Super while waiting to commit to Stim. It all feels really odd. Why is xzavier more townie then Umasi/me? Why did you post town reads in the first place? I'm surprised you do not agree with my reads. I shall re-evaluate them. You are Neutral to me for the reasons I mentioned: while you and Umasi are scumhunting (+), I believe you're doing it in an anti-town manner (-). That is: making logical leaps, confirmation bias, poor analysis. Scum can scumhunt too, and that's exactly how I imagine they'd do it. I also don't feel like I'm sheeping Superfluous. I raised some independent analysis regarding him in my earlier post (centering on the fact that our reads are very different, signifying a disconnect from my own POV that is significant enough to be Town-Scum). Are there any other glaring mistakes in particular you'd like to hear my thoughts on? On July 13 2013 19:37 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 15:53 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 13 2013 15:43 Rainbows wrote:
Sponge, I started the whole Stim thing. Chrom just questioned both of us then pooped all over him with it :p Chrom has made a couple missteps that I would consider 'uncharacteristic'. At the very least, they are poor play I did not expect from him. 1. His enthusiasm to lynch StiM after the blow-up (surely we can all see that it was more likely immature and pissy play from StiM and alignment-independent) contained logical leaks and overblows the importance of whether StiM lied about being mad or not. 2. Saying Superfluous was trying to not 'make waves' when he was the lone voice speaking up for an unpopular policy (Day 1 No Lynch) More importantly, when viewed as a whole, the bolded section above is a big stop sign on my vote to lynch StiM: Why would scum not alert StiM that everyone and their mother knew the jokepost was a joke and let him carry on in this manner? He'd have to be willfully disobeying his team, or (more likely) flying solo. If someone can give me a satisfactory answer to that, I'd feel much better about a StiM lynch. 1) You seem confident that Stim's blowup was alignment independent, can you address my earlier posts about why it's more likely from scum? I think it's pretty hard to overblow the importance of someone lying about their motivation without being able to explain it. You disagree? 2) The apologetic tone is the entire reason why Super looks bad. He's trying not to draw attention to himself and not to incite anyone (scummy). The Nolynch thing is totally non alignment indicative, which you should know. Explain your scumread on Super more. On July 13 2013 12:24 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote:On July 13 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
I may be biased but I put Chromatically as the most capable scumhunter. In last game, he pretty much had the whole scum team Day1. It goes without saying that I do not Chromatically's alignment as of right now.
@Chromatically Your current scum reads? Superfluous looks really bad, he's been apologetic in his posts (not trying to rock the boat) and has only said what others have already said. It looks like he's trying hard to find anything to post about because he wants to look active. On July 13 2013 10:05 Superfluous wrote:On July 13 2013 09:55 Umasi wrote:
Superfluous, do you have any current scum reads? At the moment no, as I said I was gone for a couple hours then came back and just skimmed through the thread . I mean to go through it again in more detail once I'm finished defending myself or w/e. Two things are on my mind though. One is that I think you are town (not just to suck up to you b/c you are pressuring me). Reasons being that in my personal experience those who are most aggressive are generally town, and also that this is a semi-noob game so I'm unsure if a mafia would have the confidence to go out and control the game/ put pressure on early on. Another thing is that I dont think I've seen much (if anything) from Cloud 9. He may be in same situation as me and I'll give him Benefit of the doubt though. It's extremely odd that he specifically points out Cloud-9 as opposed to any of the other players who haven't posted. This shows pretty clearly that he's not trying at all to find scum, he doesn't even know who hasn't posted. Also looking at Kirby. Lurkers be lurking. As I said I just skimmed over after returning. Cloud 9 was a name I didn't see when comparing the posts I saw to the player list, so I pointed it out. And I have been trying to get something to talk about other than what seem to be mini discussions between certain people. I also don't get why you're attacking me saying "I'm not trying to find scum". In my own post I said that I was going to look it over again and get reads, obviously meaning that I hadn't looked that hard for scum yet. Right now my biggest scum read is HZflank, because I still think Umasi is doing mostly pro town moves yet hz says its scummy. If it pushes to me actually being lynched I think that I'd still feel this way. He also had an early post or two that distracted somewhat from the discussion, which I'm always suspicious of. I'll give nightcat benefit of the doubt. It's a bit weird he showed up once his name came up but eh. I realize thats not really a great reason but seems like we're in semi-similar situations. Xzavier I'm more suspicious of, he didnt have many posts then in his first one he shows up saying he'll consider lynching me. It's really scummy play to lurk then show up ready to lynch imo. I really don't like that last part where he gives one lurker the FoS, but a second one a free pass in the same post. I don't like that his reads seem diametrically opposed to mine, which implies a significant difference in frame-of-reference. I don't like his case on HZ (which is a case in name only). I don't like that he's suspicious of townies who enter the thread willing to lynch. On July 13 2013 21:48 Chromatically wrote:
Sponge, could you also elaborate on you Umasi read? As I told Umasi late last night when we were the only two in the thread, I love his scumhunting, but I cringe at his methods. He's got a big problem with confirmation bias and attacking his target when he should just be poking, bringing the level of discourse down into the mud too soon. Like I said in the earlier post, I think he's Green-Black: Bad Town, Good Scum, or Good Town That I Just Can't Read. The early game aggression is much preferred to the alternative (lurking), but if he keeps some of these traits up into the late game, I'm worried for town. Moving on: On July 13 2013 21:54 Koshi wrote:I am from Belgium guys, This game started at 12PM and I was tired after a working week. I read the thread once now and my initial (this is without using filters, just reading all the posts) is that H.Sponge build enough town kred to not get lynched day 1 no matter what. I loved his opening post, and I loved his defense on that post. Even if he is scum, he has been very helpful to town, and every town should go and read that opening post. Scum reads are on Umasi and Chroma. Umasi because his entire early posts were just sucking up to H.Sponge, which is just not useful at all, H. Sponge clearly doesn't need to be defended like this. Another thing I dont like about Umasi is him trying to redirect the thread twice for a Superfluous train on a rather useless moment. Superfluous entered the thread with a bad post, but went afk after, which is not a clear scumread. Not enough the get a train going, and make the rest of the day useless. Chroma is currently tunneling so heavily on StiMaDDict. The guy is afk, treat him as an afk bad town till he comes back. It is a good thing to spark some conversation around StiMaDDict, but at this point I feel that Chroma is derailing more than necessarily. It's just tunneling into oblivion. I start filtering now: Reading Chroma his filter I get a serious scum vibe. Post like this: On July 13 2013 11:39 Chromatically wrote:
Also just noticed that Sponge hasn't given a single opinion on anyone all game after saying that he wanted people to judge him on his scumhunting, interesting. This is just being a jack-ass, at least it would be if you say things like this in real life. In mafia it is trying to put suspicion onto somebody without saying anything. I haven't crosschecked this message with the referring Sponge message but it feels dirty. What was your intention while typing this down Chromo? @ Chromo, Do you agree that this is a very suspicious post? And explain to me why it is "interesting" that Sponge likes to have interaction on his scumreads while playing this game? Reading Umasi his filter after the Chroma filter makes me want to lynch one of these 2 guys. Umasi and Chroma are either bromancing it up on the stimaddict lynch, or they are both scum. Here is Umasi his game till now: --> Defend Sponge while pushing lynch on Superfluous. --> Argue with Sponge about Chroma while pusing a lynch on StiMaDDict. I hate Umasi and Chrom as lynch targets for Day 1. Town does not want to lynch guys this active and scumhunting this hard. Regardless of the fact that I think Superfluous is scummier at this point, I'd push for a Lurker lynch over one of either of Umasi or Chrom. ---------------- Current Events: I think StiM's case on Kirby is weak. Lots of fallacies in there. Everything quoted is interpreted single-mindedly as scum, and even the stuff that's pro town is justified as 'this is clearly scum trying to look town'. Please re read this post. He doesnt like someone because they have a different POV. Italso seems like he wants people to be with his scumhunting methods.
Early in the game, someone having vastly disparate reads from you is noticeable. I think that's reasonable suspicion. The second part of your concern doesn't really make sense. Maybe you can elaborate.
On July 15 2013 14:47 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 07:30 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 07:26 Rainbows wrote:
Acceptable yes. Im really unsure of who to vote but super seems best imo.
Both might be town. You mentioned that, and that's why this is sort of an unholy alliance. Even though the odds are staggeringly in your favor, I would actually be more inclined to believe they were both scum rather than both town. I feel like I have a decent eye for town-on-town crime, although to be fair, kirby and super haven't been sniping at each other NEARLY enough for my taste. Regardless, this is good news. Now we just need Umasi to confirm he finds both players scummy, and we can decide this lynch. This just seems like you are setting your self up that no matter the flip you dont get heat.
I honestly don't know what Onegu is reading. So I'm not allowed to update my reads as people post more content? Onegu is in full confirmation bias mode now.
On July 15 2013 14:49 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 07:24 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
@ Umasi
@ Rainbows
We three control this lynch. I think everyone else is entrenched (via either conviction or inactivity). If you agree, we need to establish some things between the three of us.
First, do we all agree that both of the current wagons are acceptable lynch candidates? Here you make sure 100% that the wagons stay exacty the same there will be one of these 2 town lynched.
Here, you look silly because I tried to orchestrate an off-man lurker lynch late in day 1, proving this point completely false.
On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game.
I didn't know it was a town/town bandwagon, and at the end actually tried to get a Gotard lynch with the votes we'd accumulated. Read the thread. Also, I've openly refused town cred for posts that I don't think deserved it (first one).
On July 15 2013 19:16 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 18:50 Gotard wrote:Hi Onegu. Nice to see ya! Chromatically - For me he looks more like a town that mafia. He tends to put himself in a headlights by creating wagons and defending them really strongly with no fear (but sometimes he's tunneling himself like when he was pressuring Stim). In 'The Super Case' he brought good points and made some more room for discussion. Would he make such a strong defense to save his scum buddy? I don't thing so because after Super flipping scum he would be in a big trouble. Pushing lynch isn't scummy if you have good points and your target barely shows and signs of life innocence. On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game. Hurricane ensured lynch that day. Everyone agreed that both of them are super scummy. I think leadership like that is useful when you need majority to lynch. His posts are super pro town in general and leading town like that even in wrong direction isn't scummy to me. Koshi - reading comprehension... I will address him later after reading his filter. I will say this it is hard for me to be objective since I already knew there was a mislynch, but I tried my best, but you are right he made sure there was a lynch, but he made sure to focus on those two and didnt let it drift away, if he is scum he knows it is a town town bandwagon it doesnt matter he ensures a lynch as long as he ensures it on one of them, which is what he did.
Again, Onegu hammering the point that I was holding the town hostage on a town/town lynch when in reality, I tried to get a 3rd party lynch going once we had the votes for it. Umasi and StiM actually put the axe to my idea of moving off the two candidates. And as we know... StiM is actually Gotard...
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Onegu said he'd lynch StiM (despite knowing StiM's role) in his introductory post. I'd be really surprised if Onegu flipped red this game.
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((Sorry guys, just had 'a talk' with the girlfriend. I may be out of commission til the morning. Feel free to discuss Onegu's case when it comes out, but do not feel the need to White Knight on my behalf. We'll get more info out of the people attacking, and I'm perfectly capable of defending everything I've said to this point.))
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On July 16 2013 12:06 Nightcat99 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 05:48 Chromatically wrote:
The three scummiest people in the game (Kirby, Koshi, Xzav) are on the Super wagon. thats totally not true here because 2 of them is dead and the scummiest people is got ot be on the kirby wagon since scum knows hes a townie.His claim to being roleblock is super strange too, i dont see that doing anything for the town but its a great way to get towncredit.
This point is moot if it was a town/town wagon. I don't agree with Nightcat's logic on a lot of the points he's made. I'm also still concerned about him trying to get info on how we'd react if scum shot one of the Tribunal. It could just be bad townie play, but it blinks bright red to me as scum trying to get town consensus going into the NK flip.
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I'm not sure if it's helpful to speculate on the SK at this point, but I think I can make a case on Xzavier being SK. Unfortunately, we need SK to shoot scum tonight (and vote for a Scum lynch today) if he isn't lynched Day 2, or else we're in a situation where a mislynch Day 2 leads to 5/3/1. Assuming scum hit their NK Night 2, that makes us 4/3/1, and if SK misses his shot it's GG.
Can any of the veteran players shed insight on whether it's worthwhile at this time for me to try to chase down the SK?
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Filter-diving Rainbows, he actually didn't give a lot of scum reads. One of his last posts FoS's Gotard, but it's not really passionate or compelling.
On July 16 2013 05:23 Rainbows wrote:
We're lynching Gotard tomorrow btw guise.
Chrom, your case on me is bad. It boils down to me lynching the guy you wanted, and not really caring. Nobody wanted to lynch Gotard so I lynched the other dude. I can't really oppose the lynch when all I can do is watch and write little snippets from my phone at work.
Did some more diving, and Rainbows may have been tunneling Gotard all game. Check his filter and control-F 'Gotard':
On July 14 2013 03:30 Rainbows wrote:I think Gotard is mafia His first post is a giant list that accomplishes next to nothing and provides little original. Lists are generally an easy way to feign contribution while doing jack. + Show Spoiler +On July 13 2013 19:53 Gotard wrote:Hello! After some lurking (jk I was sleeping) i'd like to share my thoughts: 1) hzflank - cold, calculated. Null read. 2) StiMaDDict - bad town. It would be too easy if he's mafia. 3) Chromatically - I think he's pushing stim too hard (he's agressive in general) but at the same time it's good for town to see some bandwagons going 4) jrkirby - confuses me a little.But he has a similar view on StiMaDDict as i do. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 13:38 jrkirby wrote:
I don't think he's town. I think he's stupid, and have a nullread. 5) Koshi - inexperienced or lurking hard. 6) Xzavier - one good post Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 04:58 Xzavier wrote:
its fine, all i have to do is show supporting evidence and never try to make my own case on gotard. No wait, that one was good. Need to see some more activity from him to have a read. I don't agree that lynching lurker is better than no lynch (9v3 > 8v3) 7) Rainbows - A lot of posts with minimum impact seems more townie than mafia. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 10:42 Rainbows wrote:
I play exactly the same as scum and town imo.
wtf? 8) Nightcat99 - lurking newbie. 9) Umasi - Very aggressive same as last game I played with him (He was town). 11) Hurricane Sponge - biggest town read. Really liked this post. 12) Superfluous - Town vibe. 13) cloud-9 - US timezone and 0 posts. He also seems apprehensive about making decisions. In the following he notes that he is "confused. . . not sure of anything", as if he doesn't want to take responsibility for his scum reads. His jokes (see below and above) are also punctuated with (jk) like he really doesn't want to be taken seriously. "Just incase you guys were wondering, that's a joke post" -MLuneth, scum. On July 13 2013 20:12 Gotard wrote:Easy question. Umasi and Xzavier!!! (jk)
I'm really confused because my biggest (biggest doesn't mean that i'm really sure of anything) scum reads don't think that Stim is mafia. Maybe they don't want to vote on him because they know that this is too easy and don't want to jump on him that early. Show nested quote +On July 13 2013 19:57 Chromatically wrote:
Why don't you think that Stim is scum? He looks like a bad town not like mafia. The rest of Gotard's filter is calling Stim not mafia. He's obviously bad town guise and not mafia.. he knows? Anyway, Gotard has a low post count, does lists, and seems nervous about things when he really shouldn't be if town. I think he's scum. Discuss. ##Vote: Gotard
On July 14 2013 04:20 Rainbows wrote:
Consider Gotard, he is mafia. Fairly inactive and scummy. Good lynch.
On July 14 2013 07:45 Rainbows wrote:Gotard still scummy guise  .. whenever i get home ill revote cus u guys dont wanna kill him. im feeling jrkirby is the better lynch, I'll case it later.
On July 15 2013 05:20 Rainbows wrote:
I think gotard is scum, nobody listened tho.
kirby and super could be anything.
He's subtle about it (that may be being nice. I could just as easily say 'lazy'), but if the NK was a protection-kill, Gotard deserves a second look out of respect to a fallen townie.
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On July 17 2013 02:06 Nightcat99 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 01:51 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 16 2013 12:06 Nightcat99 wrote:On July 15 2013 05:48 Chromatically wrote:
The three scummiest people in the game (Kirby, Koshi, Xzav) are on the Super wagon. thats totally not true here because 2 of them is dead and the scummiest people is got ot be on the kirby wagon since scum knows hes a townie.His claim to being roleblock is super strange too, i dont see that doing anything for the town but its a great way to get towncredit. This point is moot if it was a town/town wagon. I don't agree with Nightcat's logic on a lot of the points he's made. I'm also still concerned about him trying to get info on how we'd react if scum shot one of the Tribunal. It could just be bad townie play, but it blinks bright red to me as scum trying to get town consensus going into the NK flip. Arent you the one that was pushing for a lynch on either super or kirby , why are you so convince its a town/town wagon now when super didnt show up to do much after the day 1 end.and if i was trying to get reaction for killing a tribunal , wont it have been better to just shoot a tribunal?
You know what, that's a good point. Super could still be scum. I demoted him to 'lurker' status, and he still hasn't independently posted content without being directly pressured.
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Running with that, if Super is scum, the next logical avenue to chase down is the Kirby lynch. If Superfluous is scum, then either he was bussed, or there were scum entrenched on the Kirby wagon. StiM/Onegu, Chromatically, and Gotard were the three entrenched votes. I don't think Onegu/StiM or Chromatically are scum (and Chrom offered that his vote was semi-mobile). But it's hard to believe that only one scum (Gotard, in this case) was on a wagon to save their team. So I guess a Day 1 bus is possible.
Chasing down the Bus Super avenue, that'd tag HZ as the only likely scum on that wagon (as the guy who started the wagon). Now, hz is a phenomenal mafia player, but that's a hell of a play. He was ready to paint his face and go to war to get Super lynched. Everyone has to make that call on their own. I don't think scum would bus like that, and most of the thread thinks hz is town.
Neither of these scenarios seem as likely as a town/town wagon with an arbitrary distribution of scumvotes to me.
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On July 15 2013 11:59 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 11:51 Umasi wrote:
I think he's townier than a lot of people give him credit for, but whatever. my reads are apparently worth jack in the face of mighty Alakaslam.
by the way
you are literally trying to build post flip cred by saying "oh I think kirby's town. Wait, he's town? WHAT A COINKIDINK!"
I have a hard time believing that you'd just enter the thread and be like "huh the games been going on, and I'm in it. That means someone was modkilled, or requested a replacement, which will occur at the end of the day."
"huh it must be the middle of the day."
I'd assume that the first thing you did was LOOK AT THE RESULT. Ok, I'm sorry for being so bombastic but after the Mind rape that is NWM this game looks solved practically. But when I think about it, I always look scummy too, so I'll read like suggested. But holy shizang you are right, my confidence has shot to 10,000%
Alakaslam (and welcome to the jam): Tell us what you were thinking in this moment, even though I know your feelings may have shifted from this point.
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Gotard is a strong lynch candidate, but it's a long day. It's important to make secondary reads (and even tertiary reads from there) to remain flexible and bring more to the thread than just Tunnel Vision.
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On July 17 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
@hurricane
Defend thyself before I sleep.
I'll defend once I see the rest of the scum jump on your wagon. Right now, it's solo pressure and I don't respect it. Once I get some votes on me, I'll refute what I need to, but for now, I'm going to scumhunt.
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On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game.
I'd also recommend you develop your secondary reads, Onegu. Otherwise you're going to waste a day tunneling.
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On July 17 2013 02:37 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 02:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 17 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
@hurricane
Defend thyself before I sleep. I'll defend once I see the rest of the scum jump on your wagon. Right now, it's solo pressure and I don't respect it. Once I get some votes on me, I'll refute what I need to, but for now, I'm going to scumhunt. What? This is just mindlessly throwing shit, calling anyone that votes for you scum, You're not giving your opinion because you "don't respect" his case?
I've publicly stated that I think the mafia's play was to run with the Onegu FoS which is what saved me from the NK. I'm willing to wait to see who piles on before I refute the case. Is gathering reads in this manner unacceptable?
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On July 15 2013 13:43 Alakaslam wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 07:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 07:19 hzflank wrote:On July 15 2013 06:47 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 05:56 hzflank wrote:On July 15 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I'd be on board for a gotard hammer if someone can make a good case that mafia are on this wagon pushing for a mislynch. You don't think that Mafia are on that wagon? From my position you are on the scummy wagon.I am reading Gotard again. I did not think that the cases against him were strong, but on the other hand Gotard's filter after 24 hours was horrible. The problem that I have with reading his more recent posts is that I am struggling to separate an alignment read from a personality read. I think Gotard could very well be scum, but I still think that Super is more likely. If you look at Chrom's defense of Super, almost every point was that it was bad play rather than scum play. When you make that many consecutive defenses and call them all bad play then alarm bells should be ringing. Elaborate on this if you can, hz. Gotard is scummy. Stim is still at least in the top 5 of my scum list. Nightcat is a lurker who just randomly added his vote. Chrom is neutral at best. At best that wagon has 2 scummy, 2 neutral and 2 townie players on it. The other wagon has Umasi, who I think is townie. Xzavier who is neutral (too much lurking, his posts are not good enough to make up for that that much lurking) and Koshi. Some other people have been calling Koshi scum recently, but I have him as neutral. Mmmmmmmmm nope. I like Chrom's answer better: On July 15 2013 05:48 Chromatically wrote:
The three scummiest people in the game (Kirby, Koshi, Xzav) are on the Super wagon. Hurricane did you get enough sleep before this? Three scummiest in a mini, while he votes on another! And town consensus is on a fifth!
This confused me to. Not like, your logic confused me, but literally the words in that order confused me. Can you clarify this point if it's still relevant?
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On July 17 2013 02:42 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 02:40 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 15 2013 15:57 Onegu wrote:
Scumteam
Hurricane
Koshi
Rainbow/gotard
I am really confidant in my hurricane read btw, he made sure he led the council and could make sure we never got off a town/town bandwagon. Alot of his posts just seem like he wants town cred, unlike last game. I'd also recommend you develop your secondary reads, Onegu. Otherwise you're going to waste a day tunneling. Dont worry about me I will post other reads, I dont mind tunneling if I feel I am correct and I want to keep focus on you until you defend yourself.
Good stuff. Sorry if it feels like I'm wasting your time, but I honestly believe we'll learn something by having me as one of the wagons for Early Day 2.
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On July 17 2013 02:46 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2013 02:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 17 2013 02:37 Chromatically wrote:On July 17 2013 02:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On July 17 2013 02:31 Onegu wrote:
@hurricane
Defend thyself before I sleep. I'll defend once I see the rest of the scum jump on your wagon. Right now, it's solo pressure and I don't respect it. Once I get some votes on me, I'll refute what I need to, but for now, I'm going to scumhunt. What? This is just mindlessly throwing shit, calling anyone that votes for you scum, You're not giving your opinion because you "don't respect" his case? I've publicly stated that I think the mafia's play was to run with the Onegu FoS which is what saved me from the NK. I'm willing to wait to see who piles on before I refute the case. Is gathering reads in this manner unacceptable? Why do you think that scum are going to push for your mislynch? Do you think Onegu is scum?
No, I think Onegu is town. (He's posting like town, and I had a town read by the end on StiM). I was sure that I was the NK target early Night 1, which is why I was actually happy/sad to see Onegu start pressuring me hard. I figured if the Mafia decided they could back his case with 3 votes, they'd just need to convince just two townies to hop on to secure a mislynch, and they'd be able to get rid of one of the most active pro-town posters in the game. However, the points Onegu was making in Night 1 were weak (and I believe I've addressed all of them already. If I missed one, let me know) so I wasn't sure if they'd go for it. (For a while, I entertained the idea that Onegu was fake pressuring for the sole purpose of saving my life that night, because his arguments were pretty bad and filled with confirmation bias.)
Lo and behold, I was not targeted for the NK and immediately hz starts jumping on me for a very flimsy reason after Onegu re-affirms his pressure. Everything looked exactly like I thought it would if the scum were following the plan. Fortunately, this pressure didn't surprise me, and I am well prepared for the next 24 hours.
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EPT
