EPTBasterd Mini Mafia - Page 77
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
| ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
On July 04 2013 00:45 marvellosity wrote: There's no difference between blue and PR, they're the same lingo. i.e. he could have been vigilante. I'd say that how his explanation came about (opposing / uncomfortable with massclaiming ----> being blue) does make sense. Well by saying PR I was including the possibility of the 3p in there but i guess it doesnt really matter. Its just weird he brings that up when there is literally no upside to saying that at night when the best possible thing that could happen is he eats a nk. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 04 2013 00:53 Stutters695 wrote: Well by saying PR I was including the possibility of the 3p in there but i guess it doesnt really matter. Its just weird he brings that up when there is literally no upside to saying that at night when the best possible thing that could happen is he eats a nk. The upside is that if he eats a NK he gets to take a shot. That was the point as far as I can tell. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Just thought of something, why does survivor-fuba claim so late? Wouldn't it make much more sense to claim right away? Scum claiming survivor would be afraid to claim though, because the real survivor could abuse that and out that scum player. The survivor should be much less scared of claiming, you are never going to get shot really. And sure, you might get scared,of town wanting to lynch you, but if we decided to mass claim then you are forced to claim no matter what. And claiming anything but survivor as survivor is as stupid as it gets. Yhea, we really should lynch fuba I guess ^^ | ||
|
JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On July 04 2013 00:49 marvellosity wrote: Isn't that why vote no-lynch @ Mylo is a good strategy?Generally I think lynching someone because you can afford their mislynch is an upside-down way of looking at things. Please answer these questions marv: - Do you agree that if we mislynch today we lose the game? - Are you 100% sure that WoS is scum? Cause if you answer yes to the first, I don't know how you can answer no to the 2nd. | ||
|
JarJarDrinks
United States1302 Posts
On July 04 2013 00:39 marvellosity wrote: Lol, what kind of reasoning is this? If he's not survivor, he's scum and we lynch him anyway.And if he's not survivor, then it's not mylo anyways. | ||
|
Oatsmaster
United States16628 Posts
| ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
[B]On July 04 2013 01:03 Oatsmaster wrote:[/B Cba to check right now but wasn't he when we started to claim?fuba couldnt be in thread. | ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
| ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
| ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
| ||
|
Vivax
21978 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:07 Lazermonkey wrote: And even then, why not claim right away D1? Cause he'd be the guaranteed not-town lynch. That's pretty much a nobrainer. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:00 JarJarDrinks wrote: Isn't that why vote no-lynch @ Mylo is a good strategy? Please answer these questions marv: - Do you agree that if we mislynch today we lose the game? - Are you 100% sure that WoS is scum? Cause if you answer yes to the first, I don't know how you can answer no to the 2nd. No-lynch almost always happens at 3-1 because regardless of whether you lynch at 3-1 or 2-1, there's only one lynch remaining to get right. If we lynch mafia and reduce KP *now*, for example, we get to no-lynch at a 3-1 situation further down the line (6-3-1 -> 6-2-1 ->5-2-1, 5-2-0->4-2-0, 4-1-0->3-1-0, nl) What you're not grasping that I'm getting at is that delaying our fate by one more today is pointless as far as I can tell. We lynch fuba today, and THEN we have to be "100%" sure on all our lynches for the next 3 cycles, or we lose. Unless you're arguing that fuba has a high enough chance of flipping mafia now, throwing away reducing KP and possibly giving us an extra mislynch/nolynch later | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:10 Vivax wrote: Cause he'd be the guaranteed not-town lynch. That's pretty much a nobrainer. Any townie who lynches a survivor on day 1 deserves to be shot for being stupid. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:07 Stutters695 wrote: Exactly, but by claiming blue when he can't be miller/cop makes him not a good target to shoot. If scum has RB they can RB on the chance he's vig and leave him alone if he's vet/vengeful, effectively making himself a VT for no reason. I'm just not following it from either alignment really. Right, I get you. You're saying that after the claims already given, there's only 1/3 chance his bluerole is actually dangerous to mafia in that they want to shoot him then and there? I guess that basically presupposes that a) he thinks both claims already given are legit and b) he thought it through (I can imagine if i was vengeful townie I might try a gambit like that without thinking through the exact implications) | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
 ), but I also heavily pushed the idea that we needed to take a risk on day 3 (i think) and risk losing to give us a better chance later.Of course it was all bs, but that's my general mentality. | ||
|
gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 03 2013 23:48 Oatsmaster wrote: Killing fuba is worse than no lynching IMO. I think gumshoe is too infuriating to be scum. So yeah WoS is scum.  You do care ( : Heres something worth considering. If were willing to believe WOS's outrageous claim, then you have to consider Marv scum. Because he was the only one who was going to be shot last night, lazer was secondary. Scum would only risk a random roll block to find vig if one of they're own was in danger, otherwise they'd let the shot go through on a townie and wed be in super duper omega lylo. If WOS is lying though that says nothing about Marv's alignment. Also if this is the case why has WOS not been bussing Marv? If hes town he should be vindicated right now, seeing as scum blocked his shot because he was targeting scum. Instead he claims that he shot Marv and then lets it go, choosing to focus on the blue dilemma. This makes no sense from a town perspective. In light of this you can see WOS has proven wishy washy twoards Marv all throughout day 2. I think you're going to have to come up with something better than "people who agree with me instantly aren't scum." First of all I do agree with you in that I find marv to be the most likely to be scum atm, but I always consider other options as well---considering that there have been games where presence of roles that can mess with cop do not necessarily indicate cop does not mean I disagree with you. Tries to harmlessly diffuse the conversation while suggesting other avenues. If you'll remember in my posts last night I brought up the fact that Marv and Vivax were both content to relegate the lynch to those who weren't able to defend themselves at the time. I remember Marv's vote on me looking particularly awful. Doesn't press this, sounds fairly passive here to begin with. (qoute in response to a case against Marv) This I can get behind. It seems a little at odds with your thinking earlier today but whatever. What do you make of Fuba's latest post-and-fuck-off? Try's to redirect onto Fuba. WTF Rayn? Why do you think I don't see what you do? I've said multiple times I agree that your scenario is more likely, I just don't want to completely exclude other possibilities. Mafia is a game of likelihoods and since your scenario is most likely in the case of marv, I would be voting him during the day (or Stutters, though I don't think I'm getting much support for that). Always a caveat. WOS frequently dances around the idea of Marv as scum but rarely pushes it. Virtually all his statements in regard to Marv are responses despite Marv supposedly being his number 1 read. Even when confronted with a situation in which Marv has to be scum 100 percent (him getting role blocked randomly because Marv was in danger) he doesn't follow up and tries to redirect the situation onto the blues. In fact Hes barely mentioned Marv since he took his shot. TLDR if WOS is town he needs to be pushing Marv, he isn't and therefor he is scum, which means Marv is likely scum too because if he was town WOS could quite easily get away with bussing him, yet he chooses not to. Also I messed up night two logic. Assuming either Lazer or Wos is scum, scum simply role block the real blue and then both blues claim role block tomorrow and were back in the exact same spot. They're thats how it works, they're shots will go to Vivax and a green. They cant kill me because the role block needs to go onto the actual blue and they risk a 1 for 1 trade by recklessly shooting me. Lastly To reiterate one last time what has been said WOS is scum because his role block claim is crazy, he picked the last role he could nab without getting into direct conflict, he refused to acknowledge the possibility of 4 blues until his head was on the line (being the first to suggest a fake) and he never once pushed a bus on me because my getting lynched is the same as him getting lynched(a risk hes not willing to take because he knows I'm blue). Hes been absent for ages now since weakly fighting the case against his claim and his play has been spotty/confusing all game. He has been on everyones radars at one point or another and what has he contributed? For Rayne and reasons sake, lynch WOS. Also Fuba, if Vivax dies tonight we lynch you next. | ||
|
gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:00 JarJarDrinks wrote: Isn't that why vote no-lynch @ Mylo is a good strategy? Please answer these questions marv: - Do you agree that if we mislynch today we lose the game? - Are you 100% sure that WoS is scum? Cause if you answer yes to the first, I don't know how you can answer no to the 2nd. Yes and Yes. What does lylo have to do with scum? | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On July 04 2013 01:16 gumshoe wrote: WOS frequently dances around the idea of Marv as scum but rarely pushes it. Virtually all his statements in regard to Marv are responses despite Marv supposedly being his number 1 read. Even when confronted with a situation in which Marv has to be scum 100 percent (him getting role blocked randomly because Marv was in danger) he doesn't follow up and tries to redirect the situation onto the blues. In fact Hes barely mentioned Marv since he took his shot. TLDR if WOS is town he needs to be pushing Marv, he isn't and therefor he is scum, which means Marv is likely scum too because if he was town WOS could quite easily get away with bussing him, yet he chooses not to. So you'd incriminate me based on the failings of a (presumably) flipped mafia? What a star. WoS is sitting back and seeing what shit sticks, how lovely that you're here to connect the dots for him I assume you're another one of those who doesn't understand how retarded fakeclaiming miller for no reason at the start of day 1 was? Yes? Lovely. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
| ||
| ||
