EPTOn July 10 2013 05:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
This is what bothers me about Jampidampi.
This post and analysis is good imo:
But then:
If this is really what Jampidampi think, wtf is the above post? It says nothing about Jampidampi thinking all nukes are launched bhy thread.
There is a contradiction in his thought process which i would like him to explain.
Show nested quote +
On July 10 2013 05:19 Xatalos wrote:
I agree - except about jampidampi.
1) It's not scummy to make a simple mistake like that (what would be the scum motive for that?)
2) His posts about your claim seemed to make sense otherwise
3) I looked through his filter earlier today and didn't find him scummy in any way, so I find him relatively townish for reasons outside of this incident
The one worrying thing about him is his excessive focus on your claim. It would indeed be an easy topic for scum to appear active and contributive (without actually scumhunting). Probably worth it to keep an eye on him, but definitely not to lynch him (at least at this point).
On July 10 2013 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Okay, here we go:
This is the situation:
N1 just started. We mislynched OriginalName. Chezinu launched a nuke on Xatalos, Oatsmaster defended that nuke. A silent nuke was launched towards Meapak. WoS redirected the nuke to NG. Chezinu has claimed his nuke was harmless. Before that Johnnywup claimed that he thinks he has a similar role to Chezinu and had to nuke. He nuked TanGeng.
Everybody hit by a nuke died and flipped town. We are 3 townies down. Bad. This means everyone in town is pretty clueless or mafia has the control of the game.
These are my thoughts (mainly on the silent nuke - which we know was harmful); Meapak is probably town and the silent nuker is mafia. A townie has no reason to not announce he nuked someone in thread, even if the nuke is silent. If they do not announce it, they are withholding information from the town, information that mafia already has (as they did not launch the nuke in that case). So the silent nuker is mafia, there is no other explanation. WoS is probably town for redirecting the nuke to a scummy guy (NG). As the nuke is from mafia, there is one thing that concerns me. What if Meapak & WoS are both mafia and they made a powerplay with a nuke to "confirm" them. I want to know if that's the case.
This is my plan:
I claim that i nuked Meapak to throw mafia off their game. Seriously, think about it. You are mafia and some townie claims a nuke you have launched. Would it throw you off? You need to comment on the matter somehow, as by reading my filter there is an obvious lie, just that you know EXACTLY where the lie is (in "i nuked MZ"). Mafia gets confused. As from townies however, i expect four sorts of behaviour:
1) Straight out calling me the stupidest player ever.
2) Analyzing the situation from mafia/town perspective and reach into a conclusion (why would i claim i nuked MZ as either alignment, especially as mafia).
3) Point out the obvious contradiction in my posts and question me about it.
4) Can't understand anything that's going on with me, question me or go back to 1)
Who did (1):
Meapak and WoS. This is perfectly understandable because they were involved in this particular business from the beginning. I can understand their thought process, insta "wtf is this, this is the stupidest idiot ever".
Who did (2):
Oats. Oats realized there is no way i would have claimed that nuke as mafia. It makes no sense. As mafia i would not benefit about it at all.
Who did (3):
Alaskaslam. He did ask the right question when he looked at the situation. This is the correct post to dig up:
+ Show Spoiler +
That's spot on. Why did i not follow my own advice in claiming nukes?
Who did (4):
Afaik noone.
Now about people who are scum and why:
What i was looking was behaviour that does not fall into any category i described before. Think about this from mafia pov. You don't know what i am up to. I have obviously fakeclaimed to shot a nuke. I am asking you questions. What am i after? I obviously have some sort of a plan, what do you need to answer? Another behaviour is to straight up say "lol you can't possibly have launched that nuke".
Austin:
Look at pages 71 -> where i claim. What does Austin do? Avoids the whole claiming thing!! He is happy to ask me about anything else and happy to answer questions about anything else but no, he does not talk aboutthe obvious contradiction in my behaviour. I even try to prod him into discussing it by saying "Are you even reading the thread?", but no, he won't. The obvious answer is that he is uncomfortable talking about something he knows more than he should and he knows i know more than what's been said in thread. I can't find any reason why you would not try to figure out why someone is lying as town. Look at Austin now. NOW he's ready to talk about my motives. rofl.
Ace:
What Ace does after PC. Calls me scum. Why? Because "i was instrumental in turning the DI lynch around." Yeah, me and only me. Not Austin (who made a case) or any other guy like geript/Xatalos etc etc. But me, who has earlier said "Dandel is town and ON is mafia". Makes sense right? Ace does not account my lie, at all. FUCK I DIRECTED THE POST EARLIER TO HIM. The post where i say "Everyone who is town and nukes should claim their nuke instantly". Ace is not bringing this up, but he is bringing up OTHER stuff why i am scum. If he was town that would be an obvious point to bring up, as i have lied. But as Ace is scum he does not know what i am after, therefore he stays silent and let's someone else bring that up so he can add that to my scumminess-list later. And how does he do that. By saying "Meapak caught rayn in a lie and now he is trying to cover it up". rofl. I already talked about how ridiculous that is in thread. If i was scum there would be no lie, as there is absolutely zero reason to claim the nuke as scum!! Ace usually thinks these things true from every perspective, questions the other person about their motives and makes a decision. What about here? A half-arsed case that does not hold water at any point. Take a look at Ace's filter and you can see how he is just trying to find reasons why i am scum and not trying to figure out if i am scum or not. Ace is mafia.
Jampidampi:
Jampidampi was the first one to bring up that i fakeclaimed the nuke. His thought process seemed fine until he said "rayn can't have launched that nuke because he nuked Xatalos earlier and that nuke did not fly." Silent nuke is silent nuke and probably launched via PM's, that has nothing to do with ##nuke: commands in thread. That's where his thought process falls apart. I think he is too informed about the situation and is trying to make good posts aboutthe situation.
Maju:
He asks me a random question about launching a nuke on MZ, then goes back to WoS. Definitely not interested in what happened there.
That are all people who stood out for me last night and this morning. If you want to look closer into this, look at people who did not want to talk about the claim at all, and why.
Okay, here we go:
This is the situation:
N1 just started. We mislynched OriginalName. Chezinu launched a nuke on Xatalos, Oatsmaster defended that nuke. A silent nuke was launched towards Meapak. WoS redirected the nuke to NG. Chezinu has claimed his nuke was harmless. Before that Johnnywup claimed that he thinks he has a similar role to Chezinu and had to nuke. He nuked TanGeng.
Everybody hit by a nuke died and flipped town. We are 3 townies down. Bad. This means everyone in town is pretty clueless or mafia has the control of the game.
These are my thoughts (mainly on the silent nuke - which we know was harmful); Meapak is probably town and the silent nuker is mafia. A townie has no reason to not announce he nuked someone in thread, even if the nuke is silent. If they do not announce it, they are withholding information from the town, information that mafia already has (as they did not launch the nuke in that case). So the silent nuker is mafia, there is no other explanation. WoS is probably town for redirecting the nuke to a scummy guy (NG). As the nuke is from mafia, there is one thing that concerns me. What if Meapak & WoS are both mafia and they made a powerplay with a nuke to "confirm" them. I want to know if that's the case.
This is my plan:
I claim that i nuked Meapak to throw mafia off their game. Seriously, think about it. You are mafia and some townie claims a nuke you have launched. Would it throw you off? You need to comment on the matter somehow, as by reading my filter there is an obvious lie, just that you know EXACTLY where the lie is (in "i nuked MZ"). Mafia gets confused. As from townies however, i expect four sorts of behaviour:
1) Straight out calling me the stupidest player ever.
2) Analyzing the situation from mafia/town perspective and reach into a conclusion (why would i claim i nuked MZ as either alignment, especially as mafia).
3) Point out the obvious contradiction in my posts and question me about it.
4) Can't understand anything that's going on with me, question me or go back to 1)
Who did (1):
Meapak and WoS. This is perfectly understandable because they were involved in this particular business from the beginning. I can understand their thought process, insta "wtf is this, this is the stupidest idiot ever".
Who did (2):
Oats. Oats realized there is no way i would have claimed that nuke as mafia. It makes no sense. As mafia i would not benefit about it at all.
Who did (3):
Alaskaslam. He did ask the right question when he looked at the situation. This is the correct post to dig up:
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 09 2013 10:34 Alakaslam wrote:
Then you didn't claim it until now. So Lying and foolishly so, but I haven't had to play scum ever so idunno, I bet it gets hard. Seeing as I suck this bad at town, I would probably be a day1 red flip come a scum game. But wow I have never seen such a resounding call, well done Mepak_Ziph, you deserve our ears.
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2013 19:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:
This is something i wanted to comment on earlier but forgot.
Ace i think you are misunderstanding me; I was trying to say if you are town and launch a nuke you should claim it even if the nuke is silent. This way we know that every nuke not claimed in thread when launched is from mafia (that seems to be the case with the nuke on MZ).
On July 08 2013 09:02 Ace wrote:
Setup is closed and we don't know what role mechanics exist. Claiming nukes this early with little information is pointless. Also, if Scum know who holds nukes that may lead to them NKing Town with KP if they have nukes themselves.
On July 07 2013 19:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
No it was not me.
I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so.
Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.
On July 07 2013 18:31 geript wrote:
@rayn... was that you?
@rayn... was that you?
No it was not me.
I think town should claim all their nukes so that we can tell for sure if there is an unclaimed nuke that's from scum. I don't see any downside doing so.
Either way if this nuke to MZ is from town, please claim it whoever shot it. If nobody claims it probably means MZ is town, i was wrong, and mafia is trying to frame me.
Setup is closed and we don't know what role mechanics exist. Claiming nukes this early with little information is pointless. Also, if Scum know who holds nukes that may lead to them NKing Town with KP if they have nukes themselves.
This is something i wanted to comment on earlier but forgot.
Ace i think you are misunderstanding me; I was trying to say if you are town and launch a nuke you should claim it even if the nuke is silent. This way we know that every nuke not claimed in thread when launched is from mafia (that seems to be the case with the nuke on MZ).
Then you didn't claim it until now. So Lying and foolishly so, but I haven't had to play scum ever so idunno, I bet it gets hard. Seeing as I suck this bad at town, I would probably be a day1 red flip come a scum game. But wow I have never seen such a resounding call, well done Mepak_Ziph, you deserve our ears.
That's spot on. Why did i not follow my own advice in claiming nukes?
Who did (4):
Afaik noone.
Now about people who are scum and why:
What i was looking was behaviour that does not fall into any category i described before. Think about this from mafia pov. You don't know what i am up to. I have obviously fakeclaimed to shot a nuke. I am asking you questions. What am i after? I obviously have some sort of a plan, what do you need to answer? Another behaviour is to straight up say "lol you can't possibly have launched that nuke".
Austin:
Look at pages 71 -> where i claim. What does Austin do? Avoids the whole claiming thing!! He is happy to ask me about anything else and happy to answer questions about anything else but no, he does not talk aboutthe obvious contradiction in my behaviour. I even try to prod him into discussing it by saying "Are you even reading the thread?", but no, he won't. The obvious answer is that he is uncomfortable talking about something he knows more than he should and he knows i know more than what's been said in thread. I can't find any reason why you would not try to figure out why someone is lying as town. Look at Austin now. NOW he's ready to talk about my motives. rofl.
Ace:
What Ace does after PC. Calls me scum. Why? Because "i was instrumental in turning the DI lynch around." Yeah, me and only me. Not Austin (who made a case) or any other guy like geript/Xatalos etc etc. But me, who has earlier said "Dandel is town and ON is mafia". Makes sense right? Ace does not account my lie, at all. FUCK I DIRECTED THE POST EARLIER TO HIM. The post where i say "Everyone who is town and nukes should claim their nuke instantly". Ace is not bringing this up, but he is bringing up OTHER stuff why i am scum. If he was town that would be an obvious point to bring up, as i have lied. But as Ace is scum he does not know what i am after, therefore he stays silent and let's someone else bring that up so he can add that to my scumminess-list later. And how does he do that. By saying "Meapak caught rayn in a lie and now he is trying to cover it up". rofl. I already talked about how ridiculous that is in thread. If i was scum there would be no lie, as there is absolutely zero reason to claim the nuke as scum!! Ace usually thinks these things true from every perspective, questions the other person about their motives and makes a decision. What about here? A half-arsed case that does not hold water at any point. Take a look at Ace's filter and you can see how he is just trying to find reasons why i am scum and not trying to figure out if i am scum or not. Ace is mafia.
Jampidampi:
Jampidampi was the first one to bring up that i fakeclaimed the nuke. His thought process seemed fine until he said "rayn can't have launched that nuke because he nuked Xatalos earlier and that nuke did not fly." Silent nuke is silent nuke and probably launched via PM's, that has nothing to do with ##nuke: commands in thread. That's where his thought process falls apart. I think he is too informed about the situation and is trying to make good posts aboutthe situation.
Maju:
He asks me a random question about launching a nuke on MZ, then goes back to WoS. Definitely not interested in what happened there.
That are all people who stood out for me last night and this morning. If you want to look closer into this, look at people who did not want to talk about the claim at all, and why.
I agree - except about jampidampi.
1) It's not scummy to make a simple mistake like that (what would be the scum motive for that?)
2) His posts about your claim seemed to make sense otherwise
3) I looked through his filter earlier today and didn't find him scummy in any way, so I find him relatively townish for reasons outside of this incident
The one worrying thing about him is his excessive focus on your claim. It would indeed be an easy topic for scum to appear active and contributive (without actually scumhunting). Probably worth it to keep an eye on him, but definitely not to lynch him (at least at this point).
This is what bothers me about Jampidampi.
This post and analysis is good imo:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 20:45 jampidampi wrote:
Was writing analysis about why Rayn could have possibly claimed the nuke, but since he has admitted that it was some sort of big play that he will explain later, I'm just going to stop right now and post what I had written spoilered below. If he doesn't explain, lynch him.
+ Show Spoiler +
Was writing analysis about why Rayn could have possibly claimed the nuke, but since he has admitted that it was some sort of big play that he will explain later, I'm just going to stop right now and post what I had written spoilered below. If he doesn't explain, lynch him.
+ Show Spoiler +
Possible scenarios in which rayn claims the nuke:
1) Rayn is town, actually lauched the nuke, and thinks WoS and Meapak are scum with WoS saving Meapak
See my earlier why I think he didn't launch the nuke.
2) Rayn is town and claimed a nuke he didn't launch
Some sort of trick to catch scum? For that to be true he must have though that scum launched the nuke. Because if he though town lauched it, he would just get counterclaimed and then be in a shitty situation.
3) Rayn is scum, launched the nuke and claimed it to put heat onto Meapak and WoS
See my earlier why I think he didn't launch the nuke.
4) Rayn is scum and claimed a nuke his scumbuddy lauched to put heat onto Meapak and WoS
Only possible if
5) Rayn is scum and claimed a nuke not lauched by his scumbuddy
Rayn concludes that since nobody has claimed the nuke, someone must have a reason for not claiming it, be it that they are 3rd party or maybe that they have multiple nukes, and therefore would not counterclaim him. He claims it to put heat onto Meapak and WoS.
6) Rayn is 3rd party
Since we don't a possible 3rd partys wincon, I won't speculate on this so much. If he is a 3rd party, the claim is most likely for survival, as not looking so townie makes scum less likely to shoot at you. Other than that, maybe his wincon is related to Meapak dying? It's just too much speculation to think of it this way.
The only options that actually make sense are 2, 5 and 6.
1) Rayn is town, actually lauched the nuke, and thinks WoS and Meapak are scum with WoS saving Meapak
See my earlier why I think he didn't launch the nuke.
2) Rayn is town and claimed a nuke he didn't launch
Some sort of trick to catch scum? For that to be true he must have though that scum launched the nuke. Because if he though town lauched it, he would just get counterclaimed and then be in a shitty situation.
3) Rayn is scum, launched the nuke and claimed it to put heat onto Meapak and WoS
See my earlier why I think he didn't launch the nuke.
4) Rayn is scum and claimed a nuke his scumbuddy lauched to put heat onto Meapak and WoS
Only possible if
- Meapak and WoS are town
- Scum are low on misslynch possibilities
- the scumteam though Rayn had enough towncred to live despite a shitty nuke claim like this
5) Rayn is scum and claimed a nuke not lauched by his scumbuddy
Rayn concludes that since nobody has claimed the nuke, someone must have a reason for not claiming it, be it that they are 3rd party or maybe that they have multiple nukes, and therefore would not counterclaim him. He claims it to put heat onto Meapak and WoS.
6) Rayn is 3rd party
Since we don't a possible 3rd partys wincon, I won't speculate on this so much. If he is a 3rd party, the claim is most likely for survival, as not looking so townie makes scum less likely to shoot at you. Other than that, maybe his wincon is related to Meapak dying? It's just too much speculation to think of it this way.
The only options that actually make sense are 2, 5 and 6.
But then:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2013 21:58 jampidampi wrote:
The first point is that if he had a nuke, that post would have lauched it. Forget about reasonings, look at Chez and johnny lauching their nukes. They type ##Nuke: [insert target here] and the nuke is lauched. If Rayn had a nuke, why wouldn't his post have lauched the nuke? Did you even read my post and think about it? If Rayn had a fucking nuke it would have been launched at Xata early D1! That is why couldn't have a nuke at Meapak!
On July 09 2013 21:48 Ace wrote:
I think he nuked because I dont think he is dumb enough to nuke MZ just like that as Town. MZ was the one who called him out for lying and I don't think he expected that to happen. All of a sudden it is some big plan he had all along?
regarding your post, I don't think he would have launched a nuke at Xata. He had no good reason for doing so. The first person he really went hard on was Chezinu, which would have made the most sense to nuke. Not sending a nuke at the guy he is calling for to be nuked makes no sense here.
If he is fake claiming the nuke on MZ it does not add up. It still does not explain why he would just not have nuked Chezinu, and why he would even own up to that nuke in the first place. We don't know who the nuke came from and once MZ caught him in a lie he was stuck.
On July 09 2013 21:38 jampidampi wrote:
Can you then point out what makes you think Rayn nuked? I wrote a big post explaining why I think Rayn didn't nuke, what makes my analysis wrong?
On July 09 2013 21:29 Ace wrote:
Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now.
On July 09 2013 21:25 Xatalos wrote:
So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all.
On July 09 2013 21:19 Ace wrote:
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless.
How is it wrong? Be objective here.
There was a concerted effort to turn around the DI lynch. austincc posts a case on ON. Immediately a band wagon forms. DI defends himself and disappears from the thread. ON defends himself, role claims, and still gets lynched. There are no votes moving off of ON at this time. He flips Town.
MZ figures that rayne must be lying after rayne claims to have nuked him. This is where the doubt on rayne comes from.
I show up and I'm already looking at how the lynch played out. I already note how its going down. I get to MZ's post about rayne, who was instrumental to turning around the DI lynch.
Why would I call out anyone else but rayne? Logically, think about this. I think you seriously are lost because if you can't tell what my opinion on rayne is right now this is pointless.
So you believe rayn is lying about his "big play"? Do you mean he's scum and launched the nuke after all? If you believe him on that point (which seems a pretty obvious thing to do IMO), you have no other decent reason to continue. He was just one of many who helped changing the lynch around, and unless DI flips red, it doesn't even prove anything at all.
Yes. I believe rayne is scum not only for nuking MZ, but the DI lynch. I'm taking them both together. When geript asked me earlier about why I didn't include him as a suspect this was the same reasoning. Don't think I'm ignoring the entire wagon, I'm just only speaking on rayne right now because it makes no sense to put suspicion on everyone. It won't accomplish anything right now.
Can you then point out what makes you think Rayn nuked? I wrote a big post explaining why I think Rayn didn't nuke, what makes my analysis wrong?
I think he nuked because I dont think he is dumb enough to nuke MZ just like that as Town. MZ was the one who called him out for lying and I don't think he expected that to happen. All of a sudden it is some big plan he had all along?
regarding your post, I don't think he would have launched a nuke at Xata. He had no good reason for doing so. The first person he really went hard on was Chezinu, which would have made the most sense to nuke. Not sending a nuke at the guy he is calling for to be nuked makes no sense here.
If he is fake claiming the nuke on MZ it does not add up. It still does not explain why he would just not have nuked Chezinu, and why he would even own up to that nuke in the first place. We don't know who the nuke came from and once MZ caught him in a lie he was stuck.
The first point is that if he had a nuke, that post would have lauched it. Forget about reasonings, look at Chez and johnny lauching their nukes. They type ##Nuke: [insert target here] and the nuke is lauched. If Rayn had a nuke, why wouldn't his post have lauched the nuke? Did you even read my post and think about it? If Rayn had a fucking nuke it would have been launched at Xata early D1! That is why couldn't have a nuke at Meapak!
If this is really what Jampidampi think, wtf is the above post? It says nothing about Jampidampi thinking all nukes are launched bhy thread.
There is a contradiction in his thought process which i would like him to explain.
Hmm, I'm not sure about that one. The first post is about different possible (or impossible) scenarios - logic seasoned with WIFOM. The second post is more like a "bonus" argument for your claim being fake (although that argument was clearly flawed). Dunno why he mentioned it there and not before though - maybe he didn't think of it at first or saved it for a seperate post? Whatever, that doesn't look particularly scummy (or anyhow alignment-indicative) to me.
