EPTTL Mafia LXI - Page 8
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
N1: Palmar jailed (seemed to be the towniest looking Vet in a lot of people's eyes) BC RB'ed N2: Ace Jailed (Just lynched scum) Either Ace also RB'ed or maybe RB on their shot (not sure if that messes with veteran orSK/SP protection in this game.) N3 ??? Jailed VE RB'ed I will be considering VE confirmed town because of this. The exception is if it was a town jailer who jailed BC, Ace was double jailed, and the jailer did not think the plan through and decided to VE because... terrible reasoning? It seems like a stretch to think of this as two town jailers. But I would wager that Palmar and Ace were both town jailed. I guess it remains to be seen if there's another roleblocked player. But a town jailer jailing VE just does not make sense to me. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 30 2013 23:45 yamato77 wrote: It's clear that Palmar felt BC was unreadable, as he was reluctant to call him mafia day 1 based on the fact that BC is always bad day 1. And the whole "list of cobblers" thing. Palmar's check on BC does make a lot of sense, whether or not he's lying about it. BC is a very strong analyst who had not done a particularly good job of making himself look townie, but did not look particularly scummy either. He either clears BC and knows that BC's analysis will be without bias, or he knows he's scum. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 30 2013 23:53 WaveofShadow wrote: Not-so-random thought: Ace is 3p poisoner. Explains 1 death tonight and my suspicions toward him last night. For the record I've never thought Ace is mafia; that's more or less impossible. 3p entirely possible. Why would he draw such a big target on his back then by pushing the Clarity lynch? | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 01 2013 05:02 WaveofShadow wrote: 2 mafia vig in this clusterfuck of a game doesn't seem likely when town has no night KP. JOAT more likely but then that means what, they haven't used their power a 2nd time? Or the N1 Rbs were both mafia and we don't have a JK OR vigs? I dunno...the likeliest to me seems like 3rd party poisoner but if you are right then it's scum JOAT and 3rd party survivor. (I always assume 3rd party in games like this becuase there always fucking is) JOAT could have also used veteran, or medic at any point, or framed someone that wasn't checked.I think it's likely a JOAT and a god father left. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 01 2013 11:23 GiygaS wrote: Some other things I've noticed: Here Ace defends TRN, if either come up mafia, lynch the other. Can one of the vets answer my question about Ace's activity btw? Why are you cherry picking quotes? You literally had to look one more post down where I asked him to clarify that. He said he was null, not town. Just a noobie who was a null read at the time. Didn't want to spend any more time than 30 seconds looking through his filter? | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
He's at L-3 with my vote, I believe. ##Vote Hopeless1nder Please don't hammer him in the next 16 hours. | ||
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Sharrant
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On May 03 2013 00:53 yamato77 wrote: Then unless there's a second scum vigilante, Ace is SP. And that's a pretty big unless, it's also excluding terrible and embarrassed townie shooting grush trying to make a big play and not claiming due to embarrassment. While much less likely in the second scenario, both situations show that lynching one of the strongest analysts is not a good idea. If the game goes on after the mafia are dead, lynch ace and win. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 00:58 geript wrote: Again the best option is to have the roleblocker block elsewhere for one night. That will show us if we should kill him or not. There's no reason to kill him until proof to the otherwise. He's confirmed not scum. No, this is bad reasoning. It potentially costs us a townie for something provable without any deaths. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 01:29 Palmar wrote: so wait, we just confirmed Ace as 3p? gj yamato you're boss. ... Palmar, it kinda sounds like you're admitting to being mafia here. I'm much more okay with your lynch now. Only people ace being confirmed third party to is mafia. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
@yamato Only scum know for certain if they had two vigis. Thus to be able to confirm him as third party one must be mafia. Also, everyone consider if they think scum jailer would jail defensively on n1 when there's no kp that they can stop with it, or whether they jail to rb a doctor or cop or jailer. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 04:42 yamato77 wrote: Only if you assume the JK plays along with our plan, and mafia doesn't already know who he is. If I can figure it out, I'm sure they aren't that stupid. The only exception to the following is thus: You think Ace is mafia and bussed 2 of his teammates, and possibly a third. No, it's quite demonstrably anti-town to lynch Ace. It's been explained several times. There are three situations where you lynch Ace: One: At least one night before LyLo. Two: If the jailer dies to a night kill. Even if the jailer dies to a night kill, Ace will still be RB'ed and thus cannot kill anyone, and he can be lynched without losing any townies. Three: We have 5 dead mafia and the game has not ended. Why do you people not understand this? Ace is not in any way shape or form confirmed third party. He is the only candidate that could be third party (aside from a survivor) but lynching him is ANTI-TOWN. Lynching him now means we give another night to the mafia members in return for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Unless our jailer pops up and goes "I'm not RB'ing Ace tonight" then there's no reason to lynch him. On top of that, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE HE'S NOT THIRD PARTY. If there's a scum Vigi still left alive (which is just as likely in my books as Ace being mafia just due to set up analysis) it would explain the exact same scenario we are in. So anyone not looking at that like it's a possibility is either not using their brain, or is mafia trying to push an agenda. Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. TLDR; There's never a situation in which Ace kills a townie unless our jailer dies AND we spend the following day not lynching Ace. Ace is a bad lynch today. I don't want to have to argue this anymore, I'm going to go read stuff, and if anyone tries to dispute this and cannot prove even a single specific scenario where this breaks down, I will just assume you're mafia and go from there because you will be pushing anti-town agendas with the knowledge that it has no benefit to town, and only helps mafia. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:06 Palmar wrote: also, since the 3ps are compulsive, and there shouldn't have been 2 kills on night whateveritwas, isn't he almost confirmed? sharrant, explain to me why not? Ace has been RB'ed every night except for night one. There was one kill one night one, two on night two. This shows Ace cannot be serial killer. This does however open up the option of Serial Poisoner, he could have shot Grush on n1, and the poison killed him n2. However, mafia can have any number of any number of their oles, thus 2 vigis is not out of the question. We know one vigi died, but they could have a second who was able to take a shot on night 2. That is a situation that is entirely possible. It would make Ace appear as serial poisoner because he is the only person at this point capable of being third party, but it does not show that he is necessarily third party. It's entirely possible he's just unlucky. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote: Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet. Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der How are you failing at reading so hard? If a scum vigi shot on night 2 it would be exactly the same as if a serial poisoner acted on night one. Please keep up. Lynching him hurts town right now. I hate playing follow the cop, it's just boring. I'm waffling on lynching Hopeless right now, going to try and figure out if I want to lynch Yamato more or less. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
Hey, Yamato, do you remember how I knew you were scum the first game we played together? Can you remember exactly what it was? I'll give you a hint, I didn't notice it before, but you did exactly the same thing in this game. Your play since then has been very different, but this play was virtually identical. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:45 yamato77 wrote: You fail to realize that that post was basically a scum claim from BC. Please explain to me how it was a scum claim, convince me he's scum. But please do answer, do you remember how I caught you when we played? | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:47 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm pretty sure you fuckers hammered me. Ange's votecount says you're far from hammered. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On May 03 2013 05:49 WaveofShadow wrote: How so yamato? Also wtf Sharrant you accuse me of not reading then you say this? Because I clearly explained where the vigi (if the scum have another vigi) had fired, and you were saying that the scum wouldn't have withheld their shot. It made no sense in the context of the conversation. It's completely out of place. I said it's possible scum could have fired on n2 if they had a second vigi, killing grush, and it would appear just the same as if a third party had done it. You responded with "Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet." | ||
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