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On May 04 2013 00:13 Stutters695 wrote: And that's a completely unrealistic expectation. The odds are incredibly against that happening. 1 save does nothing except put us at mylo with 4. It isn't some huge advantage. That's just false. One extra confirmed townie to guide town is worth a lot, even if it doesn't help you with a mislynch. It also forces scum to go for targets they don't actually want to go after or risk that their shot is blocked.
Okay, let's play this game. lynching ace is sub optimal play because: Jailer cannot protect himself and you've already stated doctor is unlikely. Mafia has 1/townie chance to randomly kill the jailer. That's without taking into account that yamato claims to know who it is.if he is right (not sure who he suspects or if he's mafia) then jailer dies tonight. If they don't hit jailer, jailer has 1/player base-1 to stop the shot not with standing his ability to determine who the mafia is or guess their might kill.
Likely scenario: ace is , Lynched, jailer is shot. Day completely wasted, in same spot you are now, but with one less blue, still a potential but less likely 1 less green, and just as many mafia, but less lynches.
The worst case scenario of letting ace live is your plans most likely scenario.
This was addressed to everyone saying lynch ace. No, because you're assuming scum will hit a random townie. Scum doesn't want to hit a random townie, they want to hit confirmed townies or strong townies. Having a jailer alive to potentially block these targets hurts scum a lot, especially if the jailer doesn't have the greatest town presence/isn't considered that townie. Also, if you're right and the jailer gets shot, we need to lynch Ace anyway so we mind as well do it now.
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Don't lynch Ace: Town JK has to block Ace until he dies. We might lynch scum today, we might not. There will be continued talk about whether we should lynch Ace or not which will interrupt discussion. Once the JK dies, we have to kill Ace anyway. If it happens early, killing Ace today would've been better since we would've had one night in which the JK can protect us. If it happens late, then the JK wasted many days blocking Ace that he could've used to protect townies.
Lynch Ace Town JK is freed and can protect townies. Scum don't know who they can hit. If they know who the JK is, they'll kill him. If they don't, then they need to take into account that players that are near confirmed town will be likely to be protected, so they might have to evade to shadier targets or take the risk. Town discussion is fully about scumhunting again, which scum would not want. JK is used to its fullest potential.
Clearly lynching ace is superior.
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Also, not lynching Ace actually gets us to MYLO because ace isn't town, remember. If we have 4 mislynches from here we're at 4-2-1. Mislynch and shot and we're at 2-2-1. Lynching Ace doesn't lose us a mislynch. This means it's objectively the best play to lynch ace.
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Stutters, you don't gain towncred by defending the second best plan because it's only slightly inferior to the best plan.
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Then why did you feel the need to point out why you defended the second best plan? Also, I don't remember if I've ever played with you but I haven't exactly gotten strong town vibes from you.
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![[image loading]](http://www.nosgoth.net/Defiance/dialogue/Def009753.JPG) Go now, Ace. I release you to the wheel.
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As expected. Tomorrow, we lynch the cobbler. JK, whoever you are, assign a value on everyone based on the likeliness you think of them getting hit, then RNG between it. (for example. 50% player A 25% player B 25% player C, you RNG from 1-4 and on 1-2 you protect player A, 3 player B, 4 player C). Hopeless, case on TRN please. Everyone else, no opinions on TRN please. Let Hopeless make up his own mind.
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I don't feel bad for Ace, he no longer has to play this game.
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On May 04 2013 01:20 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 01:09 Artanis[Xp] wrote: As expected. Tomorrow, we lynch the cobbler. JK, whoever you are, assign a value on everyone based on the likeliness you think of them getting hit, then RNG between it. (for example. 50% player A 25% player B 25% player C, you RNG from 1-4 and on 1-2 you protect player A, 3 player B, 4 player C). Hopeless, case on TRN please. Everyone else, no opinions on TRN please. Let Hopeless make up his own mind. Should I be hurt your singling out me? Clearly there's a reason behind it, but I want to see Hopeless tackle this one. You shouldn't be hurt, it's a game after all!
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On May 04 2013 01:25 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 00:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Then why did you feel the need to point out why you defended the second best plan? Also, I don't remember if I've ever played with you but I haven't exactly gotten strong town vibes from you. Because I've played before and know how this goes. If I say nothing someone accuses me of pushing a sub-optimal plan. If I point it out you accuse me of feeling guilty of defending a sub-optimal plan. However since my intentions are honest, by explaining my position and being transparent with my actions it should be obvious I'm town. Same way I play every game. If you play like that every game, then how does it differ from when you're scum? Have you even rolled scum on TL yet?
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Trust me when I say that your alignment really isn't all that clear. You've had 3 pages of filter since pg. 60 so there's precious little to go off. Please become a bit more active if you are in fact town because the last thing we could use is townies being lazy/lynchbait.
Prove your alignment.
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BC, if you're actually town convince me that Palmar is scum. I'm 99.99% sure one of you is scum and 90% that it's you. Put some fucking effort in.
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On May 04 2013 02:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 01:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: BC, if you're actually town convince me that Palmar is scum. I'm 99.99% sure one of you is scum and 90% that it's you. Put some fucking effort in. I did, and then you came in and went "luls nope you" So go fuck yourself. You can misslynch me and then do what you should have done which is listen to players who have done something this game. Have I been the most active player? No, however have I purposely fucked with the thread to the level Palmar has? Have I directly promised to analyze players and not done so? Have I made up a bullshit claim to get someone I want lynched lynched? Have I said I am doing x because I felt like it and no reason else? Has Palmar done anti-town stuff? Yes. Does playing anti-town make you scum? No. You should know that. Palmar is playing a game of not giving a shit, that doesn't make him scum. You've played a game in which you do appear to give a shit, yet never gave a shit for who actually got lynched.
I have been more inactive than normal yes, but I have a busy life. I have at least attempted to state my opinions in some way that people can understand. If you honestly want to believe I am mafia then go for it. Just keep in mind that VE who flipped town as well as Ace who was instrumental in raping the mafia with a stick both said lynching me was stupid and had very similar mafia reads to my own. So even if you think I am scum. You can go back and double check the reads of those people who have flipped and realize maybe the guy whos still alive, who has been on a similar track to those that are dead who were pushing down mafia like flies? Maybe you should listen to him/them.
However I know this won't convince you, you will lynch me, I flip town, and you will then go lynch completely other people because your not going to read over posts of those who died. Ace flipped 3rd party, his goal wasn't to lynch scum so his words mean nothing. VE actually considered you suspicious by the end of his life. One of his last posts was
On May 02 2013 01:10 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm pretty interested in BC's lack of torch and pitchfork where WoS is concerned. He seemed like dead set on Wave dying because of the miller claim. Now? Not so much...
He also mentioned that he was warming up for Yamato.
On May 02 2013 00:35 VisceraEyes wrote:Yamato the Hopeless case is sound. That wasn't so hard was it? 
So no, he didn't have the same suspects as you do right now. Your appeal to authority of dead players has failed. They will not protect you for the incoming doom. You will hang, and your red blood will drip from the gallows.
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I would think I'd get the validation when BC flips red given I made the case that actually put him on the agenda.
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On May 03 2013 02:58 Stutters695 wrote: Well after reading the case side by side with BCs filter here's what I see:
Self-aware Miller part: I wasn't around when this happened but reading it originally I agreed that Miller claiming is dumb. Not necessarily lynchable depending on circumstances but your entire paragraph falls flat because you can't discern when a scum does it and by not lynching them you've opened an avenue to get out of cop checks. It's true that this part relies on the fact that scum does not want to fakeclaim miller. However, given that the only player who has claimed miller since then has been WoS and I'm confident he's town, it appears scum didn't want to fakeclaim miller therefore making it undesirable for them for townies to claim it.
His long post where he mentions Yamato and CC and the four posts after: Consolidating wasn't the right word there but you're taking it out of context. I interpreted that as Yamato wasn't trying to actively get him lynched despite being the only constant read. Not sure if that's true as I haven't re-read that section in context with Yamato's posts. I'll have to check that when I have more time, but right now that's more null than anything else (if he is misrepresenting Yamato it is much more concerning). If that's what he meant, it'd be pretty hilarious since it's exactly what he hasn't done. He called for Yamato's lynch then moved on to the next subject.
The four posts after were within twenty minutes of the original post. If he had nothing else to add and VE was the only other poster the hell do you expect him to do other than comment about other issues in town? My point was that he made a case and never rallied the troops to comment on it. I only quoted those 4 posts because after that he mentioned Yamato once, followed by a whole period of not talking about Yamato.
The further into the case the more I agree with it however those points concerned me. I would like to hear his reasoning for the remainder of it but just reading it before without his filter and having those doubts I wasn't convinced without reading his filter myself. Still would prefer Hopeless but with the Palmar BC interactions I'd like to wait for BC to actually respond and Palmar's promised post.
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Also, did you find BC's responses satisfactory at all?
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On May 04 2013 02:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 02:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 04 2013 02:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 04 2013 01:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote: BC, if you're actually town convince me that Palmar is scum. I'm 99.99% sure one of you is scum and 90% that it's you. Put some fucking effort in. I did, and then you came in and went "luls nope you" So go fuck yourself. You can misslynch me and then do what you should have done which is listen to players who have done something this game. Have I been the most active player? No, however have I purposely fucked with the thread to the level Palmar has? Have I directly promised to analyze players and not done so? Have I made up a bullshit claim to get someone I want lynched lynched? Have I said I am doing x because I felt like it and no reason else? Has Palmar done anti-town stuff? Yes. Does playing anti-town make you scum? No. You should know that. Palmar is playing a game of not giving a shit, that doesn't make him scum. You've played a game in which you do appear to give a shit, yet never gave a shit for who actually got lynched. I have been more inactive than normal yes, but I have a busy life. I have at least attempted to state my opinions in some way that people can understand. If you honestly want to believe I am mafia then go for it. Just keep in mind that VE who flipped town as well as Ace who was instrumental in raping the mafia with a stick both said lynching me was stupid and had very similar mafia reads to my own. So even if you think I am scum. You can go back and double check the reads of those people who have flipped and realize maybe the guy whos still alive, who has been on a similar track to those that are dead who were pushing down mafia like flies? Maybe you should listen to him/them.
However I know this won't convince you, you will lynch me, I flip town, and you will then go lynch completely other people because your not going to read over posts of those who died. Ace flipped 3rd party, his goal wasn't to lynch scum so his words mean nothing. VE actually considered you suspicious by the end of his life. One of his last posts was On May 02 2013 01:10 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm pretty interested in BC's lack of torch and pitchfork where WoS is concerned. He seemed like dead set on Wave dying because of the miller claim. Now? Not so much... He also mentioned that he was warming up for Yamato. On May 02 2013 00:35 VisceraEyes wrote:Yamato the Hopeless case is sound. That wasn't so hard was it?  So no, he didn't have the same suspects as you do right now. Your appeal to authority of dead players has failed. They will not protect you for the incoming doom. You will hang, and your red blood will drip from the gallows. Palmar actively said day 1 is his best day and one he believes is important and his top two reads that he pushed both flipped town. He continued to push VE and calling him scum when VE was catching us mafia. He has followed thread sentiment and appears more often than naught to defend himself while never providing shit to the thread. You think I am mafia because I never cared who got lynched? Day 1 I was gone for awhile just like I was in day 2 with reasons I stated as to why. I have a job, and a girlfriend who take up a ton of my time. When I was around I said my piece of who I thought should be lynched and who I thought was scum. I don't have the time to sit in a thread all day pushing who I want to the gallows. Instead I gave reasons of my reads. We then had things like red checks, etc... So when you say I dont seem to care about who gets lynched? Day 1 I had shit to do, day 2 I was actively around, day 3 and 4 were clearing dt checks and no one cared, and I clearly stated on day 5 who I wanted lynched and my vote is sitting on him. If you are going to attempt a case, please make it legit. If you ignore shit thats going on in thread and call me mafia for doing what I can point fingers at universally almost everyone for doing the same thing then you have a bad case. Tell me how Palmar actively trolling/not giving two shits while when he was "caring" he was actively pushing townies to die and even stated he thought the guy he pushed day 1 was town, is in any way town play. Tell me how claiming a dt day 3 with 1 check with an unconfirmed sanity is town play. Seriously. Explain to me how he is in any way town. You are so hellbent on him being town but have never offered a substantial and real answer as to why. Finally, an actual response. I'll respond to it in full later, but I'll state that I never said Palmar is town. I just believe him to be town by virtue of you being scum and me not being able to see a team in which the both of you are scum. If you flip town, I will advocate a Palmar lynch.
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Fuck me, you're both town aren't you?
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Okay, here's what we're going to do. You two are going to keep pelting reads over about other people. We lynch people you agree on until we win or you fuck up enough times that we have one mislynch left. If that happens, we lynch both of you. It's kinda the same thing as the original plan except we lynch you two at the end now.
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I have a strong townread on Yamato. He also brought up the idea of BC being 3rd party survivor when reading through the case. Seems like he actually thought it through and evaluated it. That he randomly started pushing BC after Ace flipped 3P is concerning though. I haven't seen his thought process behind it.
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