EPTTL Mafia LXI - Page 8
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 13:33 yamato77 wrote: Ace, if you're town, you seriously need your head examined if you're just going to throw shit at me the whole game while never substantiating your claims. I'm very undecided on how I should view your continued lack of effort in this department, because you seem more than willing to talk about ANYTHING but analysis of my alignment, which I have repeatedly asked for from you and you have repeatedly ignored. I literally can't get past this roadblock in my mind, so you need to step it up. are you dumb? You've promised analysis several times and have not delivered - check appeared on voting wagons where we believe scum to be - check posted a poor post in defense of the clarity lynch trying to derail the bandwagon at the last minute and accuse shiaopi - check + Show Spoiler + On April 27 2013 17:14 yamato77 wrote: So I kind of re-skimmed the thread and looked over what people have said, finally, and this post by Shiao is quite bad: Much has been said about this entrance, but it was horrible, for a number of reasons. While it can be reasonably assumed that he is actually busy, the amount of this post used to excuse his own inactivity is mind-blowing. He has no original thought about the game, and doesn't seem to care about giving us any valid reasons for voting for VE outside of Palmar's lackluster efforts in pushing for the lynch. And then there's the bolded, his "reaction" to the tube modkill, that sets something off in my head. It seems unnatural and forced to go "(lol btw!)" in the middle of this post. I'd be happy with lynching him, if we feel we need to consolidate on a lynch. I've advocated playing a waiting game, but I saw it mentioned that we've only really talked about lynching between him/Clarity today, and I agree, so perhaps it is best if we move on. Another thing I thought to look at was the WHOLE votecount from day 1, not just the Oats wagon: There are some changes to this: So the votecount itself is somewhat difficult to analyse, seeing as most people were either on me or Oats, but the people on Rayn do seem out of place, and it is even more weird that two of them managed to get themselves on to Oats before his lynch; Sylencia and Hopeless. Also note that Shiao's only vote of the whole day was the hammer on Oats. And people want to say that it isn't scummy? Yeah, no. But as before, there were multiple vote changes inbetween, and they are worth looking into. To begin why did Sylencia decide to change to Oats? Seems more of a case for voting for "bad town" than scum, which seems like a slip of a scum mindset, in my opinion. Why? Because it is something I run into as scum, how to formulate a read on a town player and call them scum so I can vote for them. Most of the time, it is "bad town" that get mislynched, so the difference becomes vague. Justifying a vote by saying that someone is "bad for town" is an easy scum out, because town players can and will be anti-town on many occasions. Yet this is Sylencia's mindset, and how he justifies the vote on Oats. Just from this voting analysis, I feel he might be mafia. I have yet to analyse his filter in totality, but given this, I will definitely give it a look. Hopeless. + Show Spoiler + Get it? Anyway, this is Wonder's SECOND EVER mention of Oatsmaster, and the first one where he gives any inclination of thinking him mafia. AMAZING! HOW DID HE REACH THIS SECRET CONCLUSION?!?!?! Wow. I'm not saying this is totally regurgitation of other people's arguments, but it is. This also come AFTER his vote, where he's fully aware that he's putting Oats one vote away from lynch. And then guess what happens... I unvote (temporarily delaying the lynch), Sylencia manages to vote AND: The hammer! This all happens within the span of ~2 hours, mind you, when I'm screaming at the thread not to lynch Oats. Say what you want about me, but all three of these votes are particularly HORRID, and all of them are either switches off Rayn (a wagon that seems inherently scummy, in that people that switched off it didn't seem to change their read on him much) or the player's first vote of the game. Is there a chance they are town? Sure. I'd probably say Sylencia has the most chance to be town, since when compared to the other two, his vote looks the MOST explained, despite the fishy nature of the post. The other two, however, give very little indication that they think Oats is mafia before they vote, and the hammer in particular looks like TEXTBOOK MAFIA trying to find a good reason to just lynch a town. Notably, I did something JUST like this day 1 of British Empire 1 (also instant majority), where I fabricated suspicion of a town-created wagon on a town player and managed to hammer him for the lynch. Only this is even worse, and more obvious, because they didn't even manage to look like they thought about it before obviously putting Oats in danger of, and actually being lynch. That's VCA done right, bros. And from it, I find the willingness to lynch the fuck out of Shiapi, because this is bullshit. No matter how much post-hoc justification he gives, there is only mafia motivation to be seen in what he has done. You clowned around all of day 1, almost got lynched and have shown no effort to step up. You've promised analysis on VE and BC and have failed to deliver. Telling the thread to just give you some more time. Yet you show up to blast ShiaoPi and not do what you promised. You aren't even trying to scumhunt - just throwing accusations at big name players. This apathy and lack of effort, that you yourself promised, shows you aren't focused. If you thought any of us you named were people you wanted lynched you would have made a case by now on us - not a case on ShiaoPi and ignoring clarity completely. GG scum. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 13:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: CheeseCake, Palmar, Sharrant (him not convinced yet though): + I have said this on N1 and my read has never dropped: + TRN So that makes CC/Palmar/Me/TRN/somewhat Sharrant. I do not think any of those people are mafia. WoS claimed right after CC-Palmar-Sharrant posted. Overly defensive in the first place, now he says he wanted to avoid a DT check and mislynch on him. Bullshit i say, noone even mentions him being a good check. none of them gave reasons to shoot him rayne. Sharrant asks for convincing. Palmar sheeps Mr.CC, and both of them are on the lists with WoS. he said he'd want to avoid a DT check - thats somewhat fishy at first glance, but when he claims Miller it makes sense. It's purely survival mode after being called out - and he did say he wouldn't mind being shot. I dont think Scum would call that bluff right now. I think we should wait for Palmar and Mr.CC to give legit reasoning for wanting WoS shot. I think he has a possible Town motivation here, stronger than a scum one. He isn't the best vigilante shot tonight. The guys pining for him to be are more suspect. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 13:45 ObviousOne wrote: This post needs more Dwayne Johnson gifs IMO. Do you agree that Palmar could be mafia based on his play by proxy? Would he step back and let town tear itself apart if he's the only veteran who is mafia? So far he's been sticking with the play-style for the most part (a lazy style IMO). Ignore the spoiler if you hate pre-flip association thoughts + Show Spoiler [speculation/pre-flip association] + IMO I don't see him doing that if ACE BC BM VE DOCH are all town, BUT! it's possible that mafia has some power roles and DOCH/stutters is mafia as well (someone who when he's around is hyper-active early game, or at least that's the idea I get from 1-the podcast where he talked by himself, the beta cast and 2-he burns out quickly when he's scum), like we just learned with today's flip they had a vigilante in Clarity, and role #s are not known, they could have more. This needs a flip to have any credence so I guess i'll shut up about it for now. But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town? I could see him doing that. I dont view his laziness, by itself, as a scum tell for him. But not commenting on anything and just sheeping votes is not a good look. He's evaded scrutiny thus far because his name is Palmar. Likewise so has BC. It could be very possible they are both Town and like the way the game is going, seeing no reason to jump in and so too much just preferring to ride the wave. But I'm a little skeptical on that when it comes to BC because he voted for ShiaoPI even after I illustrated why he could be Town. I'd expect him of all people to absorb that one and get it instantly. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
But the question again so it's clear, does it make sense that Palmar would play by proxy solo if he's the only scum vet in such a potentially strong town? Yes. If his team is weak, looking at the setup with so much potential KP around - he goes into survival mode and lurks. Just killing whoever is right at night, and sheeping random town by day. As long as he avoids confrontation everyone else dies. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
It's a soft town claim, but the targets he lists also make a lot of sense in the grand scheme, so I really can't call it either way. Does this specific way of soft-claiming trigger anything with you? No it doesn't. Although BC not giving reasons for why those 2 guys should be shot is fishy. He then wants WoS to be shot too. Those are literally his only contributions: who should be killed. 0 validation why. Ace. What do you make of the fact that WoS himself said he agrees with BC's post where BC said millers should never claim? That's it. That's the contradiction in itself, and that should be enough to shoot him asap. 2 things: 1.)Like I said in Ego mafia - WoS is not experienced and doesn't understand things I deem basic. He isn't aware of "meta play" or "mostly correct strategy". He agrees with BC's post and doesn't claim early game. That is consistent so far. His mistake seems to be claiming now. 2.)I think its possible for both town and scum to claim when faced with a vigi shot in this instance. WoS has an alibi. I dont think he's capable of running a long con that well. For now, that means we should ignore him unless he is THE scummiest person around. There is no town motivation to insta-claim when people want you shot. A townie would think "crap, i have been so fucking wrong on D1 and D2. I have to relook everything and make my best to come up with the best reads possible. Then, if people do not believe me, i claim miller and have people shoot me." That's what a townie would do. There is. Think of it like a lynch. We get WoS to L-1 and say claim: he claims Miller. He's killed. Instead we say vigi him: he claims Miller - shot. In both instances as Town he is caught out there -what else would he claim? If he claims VT in the face of Vigi shots, survives the night because no one shoots him and a DT shows up with a guilty result on him he is fucked. He flips self aware Miller and post game we scream at him for being dumb and not claiming  . If he didn't post about Millers earlier this would be a better indication of him being sure fire Scum. It doesn't completely absolve him but it doesn't make him the best shot either.However, if WoS is mafia, there are two possibilities. People take him at face value (look at what you are doing right here) and he does not get shot. He can't be copped any more. Win situation. If people do not agree on shooting him, but mafia has a reason to believe he will be shot, what then. THROW A FUCKING JAILER ON HIM! That's gonna be a fucking WIFOM-fest @ D3, might even lead to a vigilante claiming if they shot him Actually you're point about bringing up a jailer kind of exonerates him. Unless WoS is Scum jailer himself - he doesn't even need to claim. Just let the vigi shots ring and get protted. I'm taking him at face value for now - repeat, for now - because it is the simplest explanation we have. As the game goes on we'll see what we do with him, but right now his claim IS plausible AND we have plenty of other people to look it that are worse than him. If the best we have on WoS is "miller claim" going into Day 3 we are doing something wrong. Also no vigi should claim shooting WoS if he doesn't die. The only correct play is that all people agree on vigi shooting WoS, if he dies and flips town, he screwed up royally. But he is no longer a distraction. If he flips mafia, good. If he does not get shot, we lynch him on D3 as mafia protected him and he is mafia. Why take that path - why not look at other people? Compare their crimes to WoS's and decide who gets vigid? Dont tunnel the guy and he flips Town and we are standing around with no good direction off of it. No other self aware millers have flipped, no counter claims even with no role counts - just let it ride for now. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 13:59 yamato77 wrote: I've provided almost all of the analysis I have promised, expect analysis of you, so that's a moot point. If you can't find analysis of BC and VE in my filter, you're not reading it. I fucked around PART day 1, sure, whatever. Doesn't make me mafia. I voted on Oats wagon, but guess what? So did you! AND, I was the only person who managed to realize that he was actually town, and tried to NOT get him lynched, so that's a non-issue. Your voting analysis is also shit and proves nothing about anyone, town or scum. I never "defended" Clarity, I simply found SHIAO a better lynch, and I would still stand by my analysis of his posting. Just because Clarity was mafia doesn't mean Shiao isn't. You may be right, I'm not completely focused on this game, but the effort is clearly there. I am here, in the thread, talking about my reads nearly every time I post. YOU are the one calling me mafia every time you post with ZERO fucking analysis to go along with it. Your "reasoning" for finding Clarity a better lynch is laughable. I have no reason to believe you weren't just bussing him for cred you would have lost should he simply be modkilled. I have no reason to believe you actually found Shiao town based on anything but poor conclusions drawn from the "wagons" of three players, when you didn't consider ANYTHING about the context of the votes, why they were made, or whether they were changed or not. It seems more like you just decided Shiao was town and had to find a reason to say so, rather than actually having analysed the information in the thread and reached a solid conclusion. But hey, shit on my analysis some more. I guarantee one of syl/shiao/hopeless is mafia. You don't think those votes are fishy as fuck? Of course not, YOU SAID IT WASN'T BEFORE! LOLOLOL Whatever. Shoot me. I'm obviously too angry to take this seriously. *yawn* link me to your analysis please, and show me where you tried to rally votes onto those suspects. I'm waiting. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
btw you guys should read yamato's last post. Its a beautiful gem of tl;dr syndrome. | ||
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Ace
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 14:26 getmoript wrote: Awe Ace, why don't you want to talk about me? I dont have anything to say about you right now. Besides this yamato guy wants attention badly. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 28 2013 14:29 getmoript wrote: Ok, why did you think my point was bad? I responded to them the very day you made them. I talked about the makeup of the Scum team. Check my filter for that post. I respond to you and VE in it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Palmar is 3rd party eh? why would you vigi over lynching him? 2 of the 3 possible 3rd parties in the OP have an extra night life, rendering vigi shots ineffective. Clearly you'd want to lynch the guy if you think he is 3rd party. how did both of you miss this? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 29 2013 03:44 VisceraEyes wrote: Why? Do you think I'm scum? What's the point of filtering myself to show you shit you could find for yourself? just show your work if you really have been doing anything this game. prove it. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
grush wasn't super active and wasn't up for vigi shots so most likely Scum/3p kill. | ||
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