11589 Posts
I'll repost all the relevant information from my filter so hopefully a more enlightened individual than the Cobbler can realize what's going on and win town the game:
On April 26 2013 00:12 yamato77 wrote: The reason I think Palmar might be mafia is delving a bit into WIFOM, but it's an interesting thought.
The explanation of night actions that we know of is complicated, given that we have 1 role block unaccounted for and 1 KP unaccounted for. I will discuss here the relevant possibilities of all of the combination of events that could have led to the situation we are at now and discuss the likelihood of each event.
1) Palmar is role blocked by town JK and shot, and Vivax is shot, while scum JK either goes unused or was used on a scum player who did not claim it. I feel like this is not very likely. Scum would want to jail offensively, because they have no chance of blocking town KP on themselves or on another town. If true, however, Palmar is confirmed town.
2) Vivax was double-stacked and jailed, and Palmar was jailed by town. Palmar's alignment is unknown, but scum deny town a ton of information, as we see. RB+KP combo is a common mafia tactic for this reason. The variation that semi-confirms Palmar would be if town JK protected Vivax and scum offensively jailed Palmar, and Vivax was still double stacked. That feels more unlikely than the former.
3) Scum double stacked Vivax, role blocked Palmar, and town JK'd offensively and hit mafia, but they didn't claim. I feel this is unlikely, because a role block claim on N1 is a soft town claim, and town JK should be defensive N1 because you can't stop KP.
4) Scum KP was on Vivax and an Vet or SK/SP, who didn't claim being hit, scum JK went unused/used on mafia or was double stacked on Palmar with town JK. Town vet has no reason not to claim, as scum already know from claims that they are vet and can die tonight. Claiming might actually help keep confirmed town alive. Third party are fucked for this rationale, but would have claimed vet with the shot, I believe. This seems unlikely, based on claims so far.
So unless there are claims of shots taken or role blocks notified that have yet to be made, it is either 1 or 2, with 2 being more likely in my opinion. Combined with Palmar's somewhat disinterested play, and his insistence that VE is mafia throughout the game while consenting to some of town's wagons, this makes me believe he might be mafia.
Perhaps this is the truth even if VE is mafia, as Palmar's "push" of him feels weak, and the VE lynch has been successfully resisted twice now. Regardless of VE's alignment, then, Palmar should be looked upon with some degree of suspicion. I'd consider lynching him today.
On April 26 2013 00:35 yamato77 wrote: The reason I'm running through all this is that I'm not particularly happy with any of the lynches that most of town is talking about. VE of yesterday feels somewhat town. I feel like more time would only bury scum VE or give chance to solidify a town read on VE. There's absolutely no rush for his lynch to be finalized.
Shaio is easy to mislynch, as evidenced by the suspicion on him in day 2 of British Empire 1, also an instant lynch where he was lurkish, and eventually replaced. The worst part of his filter is the hammer sequence, but even that could be explained by overly eager town who got caught up in the game emotionally.
Clarity is always inactive, and him being fixated on Sharrant is not alignment indicative. His case is objectively something that scum like to do, but in the context of the game, I can see a town Clarity who had a late start feeling the need to get his thoughts about the game on the table, even if they weren't about the main lynch candidates. The fact that he basically has no other reads in the game is a point in his favor, but just like VE, we can afford to play a waiting game with him, seeing as we have unlimited time.
At the very least, we need real discussion about the alignments of Ace/BC/Palmar before we move forward with any lynch. Ace is the most town out of the three, and BC the least, in my eyes. I'd say a long day is in order, and town need to consolidate pressure upon just a few people so that we can determine their alignments more clearly.
On April 27 2013 17:14 yamato77 wrote:So I kind of re-skimmed the thread and looked over what people have said, finally, and this post by Shiao is quite bad: Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 02:35 ShiaoPi wrote: Well, that took a lot of time to read. Not so sure about whom to lynch now with tube getting modkilled (lol btw!). I also have very limited time during the entire weekend, which is obviously gimping me by quite a bit as I while only be able to drop by shortly during the evening/late night before I sleep. I am currently torn between clarity and VE. Going with VE for now because I think it is a good idea to sheep Palmar. Go figure. ##vote: VE If there are no direct questions to me in the next couple of minutes I'll be off to bed until I can come back on tomorrow at about the same time as right now. Much has been said about this entrance, but it was horrible, for a number of reasons. While it can be reasonably assumed that he is actually busy, the amount of this post used to excuse his own inactivity is mind-blowing. He has no original thought about the game, and doesn't seem to care about giving us any valid reasons for voting for VE outside of Palmar's lackluster efforts in pushing for the lynch. And then there's the bolded, his "reaction" to the tube modkill, that sets something off in my head. It seems unnatural and forced to go "(lol btw!)" in the middle of this post. I'd be happy with lynching him, if we feel we need to consolidate on a lynch. I've advocated playing a waiting game, but I saw it mentioned that we've only really talked about lynching between him/Clarity today, and I agree, so perhaps it is best if we move on. Another thing I thought to look at was the WHOLE votecount from day 1, not just the Oats wagon: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 13:25 iamperfection wrote:~~~ Vote Count! ~~~
Oatsmaster: Palmar, kushm4sta, GiygaS, Vivax, raynpelikoneet, kushm4sta, Ace, WaveofShadow,yamato77,VisceraEyes,Palmar,getmoript, Mr. CC (11) Hopeless1der: Vivax (0) Bill Murray: raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes (0) Getmoript: Mr. Cheesecake, kushm4sta,WaveofShadow (0) TheRavensName: Sharrant (0) Raynpelikoneet: Sharrant, Sylencia, Hopeless1der, ObviousOne(3) Ace: Yamato, Bill Murray (0) Sharrant: raynpelikoneetClarity_nl (1) Yamato: kushm4sta, BloodyCobbler, Ace, Grush57, raynpelikoneet, VisceraEyes, ObviousOne, getmoript, Bill Murray, TheRavensName,Oatsmaster (4) VisceraEyes: Palmar, Yamato (0) GiygaS: Oatsmaster (0) Drazek: Bill Murray (1)
Remember, this Day ends when a majority is reached. As soon as a majority is reached, please stop posting until the Night Post has been posted. Only votes in the voting thread will be counted! The voting thread can be found here: (link)
With 25 alive it takes 13 votes to lynch. There are some changes to this: Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote: raynpelikoneet ##Vote: Oatsmaster So the votecount itself is somewhat difficult to analyse, seeing as most people were either on me or Oats, but the people on Rayn do seem out of place, and it is even more weird that two of them managed to get themselves on to Oats before his lynch; Sylencia and Hopeless. Also note that Shiao's only vote of the whole day was the hammer on Oats. And people want to say that it isn't scummy? Yeah, no. But as before, there were multiple vote changes inbetween, and they are worth looking into. To begin why did Sylencia decide to change to Oats? Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 23:58 Sylencia wrote:Oats is the vote for me. Case from Vivax + aftermath between yamato vs Oats has convinced me more to taking down Oats. The thing that was holding me back most was that my primary scum suspect (rayn) was on Oats fairly early on. However: On April 23 2013 22:36 Vivax wrote: Whatever, you're at L-1, dead. If you're town you shouldn't jumping around hysterically, but tell us who we should look at after your flip.
TRN, if you want to have yamato lynched instead of Oats, it's not my job to find arguments for you. I'd want to have Oats lynched first. Given that Oats never actually provided anything for us in terms of reads afterwards and posted crap about being green and telling people to push others. If he has nothing to say either: a) He's playing as the bad townie b) He's withholding that info from us to stop us from gaining more than we need from the lynch. Either case is bad for town, so that's why I'm willing to go down on Oats. ##Unvote ##Vote Oats Seems more of a case for voting for "bad town" than scum, which seems like a slip of a scum mindset, in my opinion. Why? Because it is something I run into as scum, how to formulate a read on a town player and call them scum so I can vote for them. Most of the time, it is "bad town" that get mislynched, so the difference becomes vague. Justifying a vote by saying that someone is "bad for town" is an easy scum out, because town players can and will be anti-town on many occasions. Yet this is Sylencia's mindset, and how he justifies the vote on Oats. Just from this voting analysis, I feel he might be mafia. I have yet to analyse his filter in totality, but given this, I will definitely give it a look. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote: Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats ##Unvote: raynpelikoneet ##Vote: Oatsmaster Hopeless. + Show Spoiler +Anyway, this is Wonder's SECOND EVER mention of Oatsmaster, and the first one where he gives any inclination of thinking him mafia. AMAZING! HOW DID HE REACH THIS SECRET CONCLUSION?!?!?! Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote: Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point. Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo. Wow. I'm not saying this is totally regurgitation of other people's arguments, but it is. This also come AFTER his vote, where he's fully aware that he's putting Oats one vote away from lynch. And then guess what happens... I unvote (temporarily delaying the lynch), Sylencia manages to vote AND: The hammer! This all happens within the span of ~2 hours, mind you, when I'm screaming at the thread not to lynch Oats. Say what you want about me, but all three of these votes are particularly HORRID, and all of them are either switches off Rayn (a wagon that seems inherently scummy, in that people that switched off it didn't seem to change their read on him much) or the player's first vote of the game. Is there a chance they are town? Sure. I'd probably say Sylencia has the most chance to be town, since when compared to the other two, his vote looks the MOST explained, despite the fishy nature of the post. The other two, however, give very little indication that they think Oats is mafia before they vote, and the hammer in particular looks like TEXTBOOK MAFIA trying to find a good reason to just lynch a town. Notably, I did something JUST like this day 1 of British Empire 1 (also instant majority), where I fabricated suspicion of a town-created wagon on a town player and managed to hammer him for the lynch. Only this is even worse, and more obvious, because they didn't even manage to look like they thought about it before obviously putting Oats in danger of, and actually being lynch. That's VCA done right, bros. And from it, I find the willingness to lynch the fuck out of Shiapi, because this is bullshit. No matter how much post-hoc justification he gives, there is only mafia motivation to be seen in what he has done.
On May 01 2013 14:26 yamato77 wrote: Hopeless.
He's mafia.
Lynch him.
OO/WoS/TRN/Gigyas/VE/Kush seem town enough to eliminate them.
Ace/Palmar/BC - will never speak about again. If I had a choice, I would RNG between them and lynch ruthlessly.
Sharrant/Artanis/Stutters all possible mafia.
On May 01 2013 14:37 yamato77 wrote: Sharrant has the whole "Clarity made a case on him as he entered" thing, which I find unlikely for mafia Clarity to do to his scumbuddy. Much more likely Sharrant is town, even if he is relatively inactive.
Artanis replaced Drazak, who was a lurky, inactive player as mafia in Hydra. Perhaps this trend carried over to this game, and he rolled mafia again? Is Drazak known for being inactive as town? Artanis also suffers from the same syndrome mafia DarthPunk did in Personality 2, one of complete apathy upon replacing in, and excusing his lack of contribution with the idea that he's "still catching up." He is also one of a very few people who have correctly read my alignment. Is that just an attempt to buddy me, or is he actually like CC and Palmar in that he has a brain? Difficult to tell in this town. Seems like a good candidate to pressure for lynch, because if town, he might actually do something. He is relatively decent at scum, however, so he may be difficult to hammer home.
Stutters replaced DH, who I think is just AWOL from the forum altogether. Stutter's inactivity is typical of his play, so there's literally nothing alignment indicative about it. What he has said in the thread seems logical enough, and it would be his first scum game ever, so it's probably better to treat him as if he's town until there is some indication that he isn't. Not a good lynch, because it's 75/25 that he's town, IMO.
So it's Hopeless/Artanis as possible mafia left out of the "non-vet" group. Next I'll take a serious look at the vet group and determine the actual possibilities that lie therein.
On May 01 2013 14:39 yamato77 wrote: Oh, Bill Murray. I kinda want to think he's town off his day 1, but he's been real AFK since, and he had this penchant of a disappearing act late in the game as mafia in Boardwalk as well. His alignment is difficult to ascertain with any certainty because of this dichotomy.
On May 01 2013 14:58 yamato77 wrote: BC/Palmar seem like they should both be dead. In most of the games I have played with them, they are high-priority NK targets and usually dead by now. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen either of them live this long in a game I've played with them. Regardless of me being paranoid about the alignments of the veteran players or not, something is suspect about this. the analysis that says that there is a vet who wants to hide among the alive vets seems accurate, and it only becomes more damning when one considers that ALL of the NKs we have seen have been on mid/low-tier players in terms of activity and skill level.
By this same logic, it seems odd that Ace is alive. While all of these players have been under some degree of suspicion this game, this fact hasn't stopped scum teams from shooting high-priority targets before. Out of the three mentioned, Ace seems like the least likely to be mafia, simply from activity levels and attitude about the game. But he also has a reputation as a legendary scum player, so it is difficult for me to cognitively cross him off my list of suspects, and my conspiracy theories only serve to move him further null in my mind. It may be a decent idea to ignore him for a short while until we get more information about the alignments of the other two.
So back to Palmar/BC; I find it more likely that Palmar is town than BC. Palmar, while relatively inactive, has attempted at times to push his own agenda in lynching VE, good or bad. He's also had a believable narrative in checking/claiming a red check on BC. Is he capable of this sort of play as mafia? It's possible, but I feel it likely that Palmar is actually telling the truth that he simply cba to do anything. It's an illness that often strikes Palmar.
BC doesn't seem to have pushed for anyone's lynch but mine this whole game. From my perspective, this is hilariously weak, since I know I'm town. It's unfortunate that his schedule restricts him from being active most of the time people are attempting to decide upon lynches. His strongest stance since saying I'm scum is saying that Palmar is, which seems to be in line with general town sentiment. But I've never seen BC play past D1/N1, so I can't know if this play is his typical town play or not. I will say that in the games I have played with him, he seems more assertive about his reads and more aggressive in hunting them. I'm not getting that feeling this game, especially as the game wears on.
Out of the two, I would lynch BC. I'd much rather lynch Hopeless, however, over either of them. I'll take a better look at his voting patterns throughout the game and come to a much more defined conclusion.
On May 01 2013 15:29 yamato77 wrote:Hopeless' Official Vote FilterGo on, look at it, it's short. He has 5 vote this game, and they are not spread evenly throughout the days. I'm going to match them to the corresponding reasons he gives in thread and analyse his voting strategy this game, all in chronological order to see how it's changed, or hasn't, over time. DAY 1 Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 21:30 Hopeless1der wrote:What the fuck is this suspicion on me based on? My determination to "Shut down townreads"? Yes, when you're handing them out like hotcakes and trying to hold hands singing kumbya. This is Mafia, not summer camp singalong. I'm not discouraging reasonable townreads, I'm trying to keep things objective and informed. The two points against me are my comments on VE's entrance and Vivax/Palmar's entrance posts. For VE, watch carefully: + Show Spoiler +On April 22 2013 01:50 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2013 01:48 getmoript wrote:On April 22 2013 01:25 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:On April 22 2013 01:23 kushm4sta wrote: WE knew that's what VE meant because we are town. Scum prob didn't know what he meant. Now you just explained it to them. Why wouldn't scum know what he meant? They had to do the exact same thing, the only difference is they had a QT in their PM. They still have to look up if they are framer,rber,godfather or whatever. Literally every person has to reference the op for their role, regardless of alignment. How would you even know this? Are you scum? Did you receive a QT in your PM? Did you receive the QT in the same pm or a different pm? You are treading on highly suspicious ground for me because as a hydra I received my hydra QT in the same PM. You aren't a hydra clearly. How would you know that? On March 22 2013 20:48 Blazinghand wrote:Sample PMs:How the fuck is this so difficult to understand? Am I trying to prevent townreads? You could say that. However, the reasoning used to attain a townread on VE was true of literally every player in the game. It's the equivalent of calling anyone who doesn't post for more than an hour scum. Man's gotta sleep right? Same way he has to READ THE OP TO LEARN WHAT HIS ROLE IS???
Vivax/Palmar's openings: Palmar, based on the plethora of information from Vivax's two posts, the first ones in the game, declares Vivax to be unlynchable. Just like that. And that was alright because I felt similar about it. I mean I'd still have an open mind, but Vivax's post did put me onto a townier side of Vivax. My problem with Palmar's post was that he called something really fucking stupid a valuable towntell heuristic. Let me break this shit down: DAY 1 POST timestamp On April 21 2013 16:55 Blazinghand wrote:Vivax's first posts, the ones Palmar was referring to On April 21 2013 18:23 Vivax wrote: Good morning. Is it safe to assume scum didn't post yet? On April 21 2013 18:28 Vivax wrote: Well I don't care that you say no, I'll treat everyone who posted before me as confirmed town for a while. So roughly an hour and a half. In addition there were 15ish posts between 6 players, obs notwithstanding. Also, the game started in the dead of night where I am. Hydra Mini scum in ~30 minutes, 33 posts into the game. Ego Mini: scum posted within an hour of game start. 34 posts in. Noir Mini: scum four minutes and 6 posts into the game British Empire II second post of the game 3 minutes in. Red team's prize Scum in under an hour, 25 posts in. The Game scum 5 minutes in, second post All of these games violate Vivax's heuristic, but fuck me for pointing it out (without proof i guess) and questioning Palmar as to why he felt it was valuable, eh guys? . These are literally games just going down the list of the TL Mafia forum. I'm obviouscum trying to derail town from giving out Completely valid and well thought out town reads based on sound reasoning. Nah, you can all go die in a fire if you want to lynch me for this.
As of right now, I'm on Sharrant's side and would lynch rayn. I disllike his backpedal about "policy" miller lynching. I dislike his case overall as it is largely OMGUS, but still asks questions of the person he is accusing. However, his preface to his case was here: On April 22 2013 12:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: Wait what Sharrant.. Are you seriously saying that i'm trying to gain credit from town!TRN lynch on D1 as mafia? That's your conclusion? On April 22 2013 12:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes Sharrant, where are the other mafia players voting for TRN so that i can gain credit from the lynch? These two quotes don't accomplish anything to me. He's just throwing the question back at sharrant like a stall tactic of feigning disbelief. For having come up with a scumread on Sharrant it seems grounded in the fact that Sharrant is wrong, not necessarily scum. On April 22 2013 12:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: I fail to see how Sharrant can possibly think i am taking his "bait" and defending town!TRN (as he's now saying) as mafia. If TRN was my lynchbait, i would need my teammates to vote for him to gain the credit, otherwise defending him is useless for me. There is/was noone else voting for TRN.
That's the worst reasoning to backpedal from a scumread i have ever heard. On top of that, Sharrant obviously hasn't even read why i think TRN is town. Hint: The post where i answer OO about him. "If I WERE mafia, blah blah blah" No. I say you ARE mafia. ##Vote: raynpelikoneet This post has been given as reason for hopeless being town, because it shows effort. I disagree. Most of the things Hopeless argues about in this post are completely pointless, and none of it has almost any bearing on anyone's alignment. Again, I'll break it down. 1) VE shouldn't be a town read because everyone had to look at the OP for their role, or whatever. I don't even understand what he's arguing here, and he doesn't pursue it. It's a non-issue, and it seems more like he's defending himself for doing what he did than actually pushing any sort of suspicion on VE. It's stupid, and not worth talking about. 2) Vivax gave out too many "free town reads" or whatever with his "no scum have posted before this!" post. What the fuck, who cares. Why does he care what Vivax is doing with his reads this game, unless he thinks he is mafia? It's an absurd argument, and again pointless. Just as pointless to argue that Palmar is suspicious for giving Vivax a townread over it. Another thing that seems self-serving, in that it's defending his contributions this game. 3) He's shutting down town reads of people. That point actually seems true, since that's most of what he's talked about. Valid criticism, but not all that damning. 4) The case on Rayn, which was woefully short and inadequate. Not only do we have the luxury of knowing that he was wrong here, but his arguments aren't even that strong. He takes a couple of posts out of context in an argument between Rayn and Sharrant, and calls Rayb mafia because they sound odd, or something to that effect. It's largely bogus, and Hopeless is obviously just taking sides in a town vs. town war and hoping to fan the flames. I view this as a point against him, not for him. So when we break that post down, it's actually fairly apparent that his contribution esd largely self-serving, and have fairly clear mafia motivations. He wants to clear his image and appear to be "scumhunting" while he argues over town reads, so he slaps an ill-thought-out case down on Rayn and proceeds to do little else day 1. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote: raynpelikoneet ##Vote: Oatsmaster Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 21:39 Hopeless1der wrote: Vivax where did your unofficial count come from it looks wonky...
in any case, this should be L-1 on Oats ##Unvote: raynpelikoneet ##Vote: Oatsmaster This is his only other vote on Day 1, and as I analysed before, it's a shit vote with literally no prior explanation, and one that should have been taken more seriously. Hopeless CLEARLY understands that this puts Oats at real risk of being hammered, but there's no prior indication from his filter that he's considered this fact at all. The only justification comes AFTERWARD, which is too little too late. Show nested quote +On April 23 2013 22:37 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 23 2013 21:42 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 23 2013 21:22 Vivax wrote: Me and ace are basically the only ones asking people to switch to Oats, others say "can do", others say it looks like a policy, or try to push other cases.
If this was a wagon on a townie, scum could be pushing it easily at this point. Why didn't any of this happen yet? There's resistance here. Again, worst reasoning ever. Cause im town. Yeah. Hopeless. Why am I scum? I think you're too trolly in the face of dieing to be town. I'm not even certain you have a scum read on anyone at all. You've provided next to nothing. A shitty list post where your strongest scum read is "well someone has to be scum, why not Ace". gtfo. You can judge for yourselves how you feel about this, but I will note that Shiao's vote was ALSO justified largely post-hoc, and I also analysed that vote to be mafia motivated for the same reasons. And look what he flipped. DAY 2: Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 03:51 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 27 2013 03:34 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hopeless who is your preferred lynch today? tbh Sharrant until someone can explain how he gets away from his scumread on you, as evidenced from On April 22 2013 13:26 Sharrant wrote: --SNIP--
At this point I am less sure about Rayn being scum than I was then, because his conversations with other players has generally been good since that time, but he's still in my top 3 to lynch. I just haven't decided if there's someone I'd rather lynch more, like say Hopeless.
Any more questions? On April 23 2013 00:02 Sharrant wrote: It's a good try, Rayne, but no.
Let's get this out of the way quickly because I have to leave, and there's more important things to do when I'm back.
The reason I looked into you is because of your chainsaw defense of TRN. That fit exactly what I was looking for, so I went through your filter.
I am not trying to lynch you on the merit of you defending TRN, get that through your head. I am going to get you lynched because you are scum. You claim that after posting several times about how miller claims should be a policy lynch, you say that it's not a policy lynch you're pushing on BM. The closest you come to make to a case is "This isn't a miller lynch policy, I'm lynching him because he claimed miller which is scummy" which is exactly the same as saying "No, this isn't a lurker lynch, I'm just lynching because his low activity is scummy". It's just attempting to disguise that you were trying to policy lynch him.
The post I voted for you details exactly why I have you as a scum read. The possibility that you were a townie who made some crazy defense on TRN went out the window when I read through your filter.
If you can't understand that, I can't help you. Those important things, like not lynching your primary scumread? He doesnt return to 'get things done" until Oats is lynched. Clarity's spiel about 'easy outs' doesnt look that stupid to me considering how Sharrant's read on rayn went into the abyss with no comment at all. He just dropped his read with no explanation that I can find. What gives? There's also what I view as feigned contribution. I realize he's posted way more than I have, but when you post On April 25 2013 01:29 Sharrant wrote: Is there anyone around who feels like chatting? I don't want to put up any large posts until it's just about daybreak (which I think is in about 2 and a half hours if someone could confirm). and then don't drop a wall of text in some regard, it looks like faked activity to me. This is also his first post after insisting he has shit to do upon his return, but I cant find these amazing things he's done. He's focused his attention towards clarity, but clarity barely existed at this point. Where are these "better things" sharrant promised? ##Vote: Sharrant In the Sharrant vs. Clarity thing that happaned day 2, Hopeless took the side of mafia, after having taken Sharrant's side day 1. Purely as an association case, this looks horrible, but when you consider that Hopeless' read of Sharrant changed so drastically overnight, it becomes even more suspicious. I'm not at all impressed with this vote. Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 05:23 Hopeless1der wrote: welp i guess im on shiaopi then
##Unvote: Sharrant ##Vote: ShiaoPi ...Why? Show nested quote +On April 28 2013 09:54 Hopeless1der wrote: Yeah no one has ever exaggerated in their life, right Ryan? ...any who I need to eat my words on sharrant. My main reason in voting shiao was that I didn't trust sharrant. There is no good reason for him to be scum at this point. You don't suicide your vig into a teammate who proceeds to tear you a new one. I agree with most of the proposed big shots. Ie. Sketch bags on shiao's wagon. Unless shiao is ALSO a vig, he really should be considered town. Depending on flips and such, I'd consider him semi confirmed.
My personal choices for shots is sylencia and stutters. Obviously don't shoot me (herpderp), and I marginally believe wos. Post-hoc justification, yet again. He stays consistent in that he "didn't trust Sharrant" so he didn't vote for Clarity. But what did he do? He defended Shiao's image to the thread and threw shit at the people on his wagon. Why? Who the fuck knows. Before now, I see almost zero mention of Shiao and his read on him, except that he's "willing to hammer him". Not looking great for Hopeless here in this department. Day 3... Nothing. While we did lynch quick, he made no vote. A non-issue, I suppose. Day 4: Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 22:39 Hopeless1der wrote:On April 30 2013 22:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK so as I have been thinking recently.
We know there is one jailkeeper running around. We know there are 3 dt claims(one now dead) We know there is one mason still masoning, and one who is dead We know we have 1 dead miller and 1 claimed miller(wos) We know a mafia vig and a mafia framer are dead We know a second rb happened n1. This means a) palmar is lying b) I am lying c) An inactive town is a jailkeeper and has been mia for all nights since.
Given 2 millers, 1 framer. I find it extremely unlikely that we have two dts who have fucked up sanities. Insane is very easy to prove, as is insane. We know based on checks that obviousone is town, and palmar has a guilty check on him, I know I am town and he has a guilty check on me. Given that we have only been seeing 1 rb since n1 and joats can't rb as a power I am inclined to say Palmar is scum.
We know 100% that shiaopi is scum based on CC however I believe Palmar should be dealt with next at this time. I pretty much agree with all of this, except ShiaoPi could have been framed so its not 100%. Nevertheless, the correct move is to lynch him right now. ##Vote:ShiaoPi Follows along with town's plan, altogether blending in. Overall, it's fairly clear to me how little Hopeless cares about finding a good lynch. He doesn't spend much effort in the thread trying to discern people's alignments, and his votes on Day 1+2 look highly suspect. Just from looking at these posts, and some context in his filter, it's easy to discern that Hopeless is mafia.
On May 04 2013 17:32 yamato77 wrote:First of all, I want to make an immediate point. On night one, there were two role blocks. We've seen a mafia JK flip. We know he was responsible for one, and that person is confirmed not mafia. The other one could very well be the result of a town JK, and that person's alignment would still be unknown. However, by process of elimination, if the town JK claims, we have two confirmed town, and one of them is Palmar/BC. The only downside to claiming is that you'll 100% be shot tonight if you do it before the day post, but if you wait until after, we might not get the chance to know. I would claim, because I think I know who it is, and if I can figure it out, mafia probably can as well. You'll literally be giving us a PRIZED piece of the puzzle here, as confirming one of those two is fucking amazing. So do it. Thus ends the concrete portion of today's analysis of the game state. Next, I want to think about a notion I've been considering since Ace flipped third party, and one that may lead to a more complete understanding of the game. It's speculative, but it's interesting. What does Ace flipping third party give us in terms of information? Normally, I don't think it would give much, because neither mafia nor town can know Ace's alignment, so it's possible that mafia vote for him just like town, right? Wrong. It's in mafia's best interest to have KP like a third party poisoner floating around, especially in a scenario like the one we're in now, where town vastly outnumbers mafia. The scum team need all the help they can get, so if they think someone is serial poisoner, they might shy away from lynching him. So that brings me to this post from Sharrant: Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:02 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 04:42 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:On May 03 2013 04:34 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:32 Hopeless1der wrote: why the fuck is ace in that list? Should I care with which order I lynch anti-town elements in this game? Yes considering Ace's KP is controlled atm Only if you assume the JK plays along with our plan, and mafia doesn't already know who he is. If I can figure it out, I'm sure they aren't that stupid. The only exception to the following is thus: You think Ace is mafia and bussed 2 of his teammates, and possibly a third. No, it's quite demonstrably anti-town to lynch Ace. It's been explained several times. There are three situations where you lynch Ace: One: At least one night before LyLo. Two: If the jailer dies to a night kill. Even if the jailer dies to a night kill, Ace will still be RB'ed and thus cannot kill anyone, and he can be lynched without losing any townies. Three: We have 5 dead mafia and the game has not ended. Why do you people not understand this? Ace is not in any way shape or form confirmed third party. He is the only candidate that could be third party (aside from a survivor) but lynching him is ANTI-TOWN. Lynching him now means we give another night to the mafia members in return for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Unless our jailer pops up and goes "I'm not RB'ing Ace tonight" then there's no reason to lynch him. On top of that, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE HE'S NOT THIRD PARTY. If there's a scum Vigi still left alive (which is just as likely in my books as Ace being mafia just due to set up analysis) it would explain the exact same scenario we are in. So anyone not looking at that like it's a possibility is either not using their brain, or is mafia trying to push an agenda. Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. TLDR; There's never a situation in which Ace kills a townie unless our jailer dies AND we spend the following day not lynching Ace. Ace is a bad lynch today. I don't want to have to argue this anymore, I'm going to go read stuff, and if anyone tries to dispute this and cannot prove even a single specific scenario where this breaks down, I will just assume you're mafia and go from there because you will be pushing anti-town agendas with the knowledge that it has no benefit to town, and only helps mafia. Most of this is, on its face, reasonable. Actually, I'm pretty sure that Sharrant here believes it to be fine and dandy that Ace not be lynched, and I have a town read on Sharrant. But the notion he spreads here is another thing that is pro-mafia, when you think about it. Keeping Ace perma-jailed actually leaves town more vulnerable to KP than lynching him, because with the town jailer locked up, mafia KP is assuredly going to hit town. Now like I said, I think Sharrant is town. But the idea is there nonetheless, mafia have a clear motive for keeping Ace alive, even if he's confirmed third party. And who argued to keep Ace alive and not lynch him, despite believing him to be third party? Hopeless. At the bottom of page 215, you'll find a conversation between him and I about lynching Ace. I argue for the possibility, and he argues against it. I ask a very straightforward question, one that is at the root of the town win con: why should I, as town, care whether I'm lynching mafia or anti-town third party? Both of those groups have to die for town to win. Yet Hopeless disagrees. Why? It's because he's mafia, showing his true colors. Another interesting notion that goes along with Ace being third party is BC's read of him. If BC believed Ace to be third party, as he claimed to have done the whole game, why did he never push for his lynch? He doesn't care enough about the game to push his reads, even when he is here. I think he mentioned Ace being third party once, the whole game. Why didn't he try to persuade town to lynch him, if he felt that way throughout? Because he's been fixated on me the whole game, using some of town's suspicion of me as an excuse for a scum read to skate by. He doesn't care about solving the game, he cares about not getting lynched. That's why I thought he was survivor, but there are people who play scum the same way. Perhaps BC is one of them. All in all, the Ace flip only makes me more confident in my reads. I could be wrong, I admit, but I doubt it.
Good luck, town.
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11589 Posts
I'll post this again, for your convenience.
On May 04 2013 17:32 yamato77 wrote:First of all, I want to make an immediate point. On night one, there were two role blocks. We've seen a mafia JK flip. We know he was responsible for one, and that person is confirmed not mafia. The other one could very well be the result of a town JK, and that person's alignment would still be unknown. However, by process of elimination, if the town JK claims, we have two confirmed town, and one of them is Palmar/BC. The only downside to claiming is that you'll 100% be shot tonight if you do it before the day post, but if you wait until after, we might not get the chance to know. I would claim, because I think I know who it is, and if I can figure it out, mafia probably can as well. You'll literally be giving us a PRIZED piece of the puzzle here, as confirming one of those two is fucking amazing. So do it. Thus ends the concrete portion of today's analysis of the game state. Next, I want to think about a notion I've been considering since Ace flipped third party, and one that may lead to a more complete understanding of the game. It's speculative, but it's interesting. What does Ace flipping third party give us in terms of information? Normally, I don't think it would give much, because neither mafia nor town can know Ace's alignment, so it's possible that mafia vote for him just like town, right? Wrong. It's in mafia's best interest to have KP like a third party poisoner floating around, especially in a scenario like the one we're in now, where town vastly outnumbers mafia. The scum team need all the help they can get, so if they think someone is serial poisoner, they might shy away from lynching him. So that brings me to this post from Sharrant: Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:02 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 04:42 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:On May 03 2013 04:34 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:32 Hopeless1der wrote: why the fuck is ace in that list? Should I care with which order I lynch anti-town elements in this game? Yes considering Ace's KP is controlled atm Only if you assume the JK plays along with our plan, and mafia doesn't already know who he is. If I can figure it out, I'm sure they aren't that stupid. The only exception to the following is thus: You think Ace is mafia and bussed 2 of his teammates, and possibly a third. No, it's quite demonstrably anti-town to lynch Ace. It's been explained several times. There are three situations where you lynch Ace: One: At least one night before LyLo. Two: If the jailer dies to a night kill. Even if the jailer dies to a night kill, Ace will still be RB'ed and thus cannot kill anyone, and he can be lynched without losing any townies. Three: We have 5 dead mafia and the game has not ended. Why do you people not understand this? Ace is not in any way shape or form confirmed third party. He is the only candidate that could be third party (aside from a survivor) but lynching him is ANTI-TOWN. Lynching him now means we give another night to the mafia members in return for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Unless our jailer pops up and goes "I'm not RB'ing Ace tonight" then there's no reason to lynch him. On top of that, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE HE'S NOT THIRD PARTY. If there's a scum Vigi still left alive (which is just as likely in my books as Ace being mafia just due to set up analysis) it would explain the exact same scenario we are in. So anyone not looking at that like it's a possibility is either not using their brain, or is mafia trying to push an agenda. Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. TLDR; There's never a situation in which Ace kills a townie unless our jailer dies AND we spend the following day not lynching Ace. Ace is a bad lynch today. I don't want to have to argue this anymore, I'm going to go read stuff, and if anyone tries to dispute this and cannot prove even a single specific scenario where this breaks down, I will just assume you're mafia and go from there because you will be pushing anti-town agendas with the knowledge that it has no benefit to town, and only helps mafia. Most of this is, on its face, reasonable. Actually, I'm pretty sure that Sharrant here believes it to be fine and dandy that Ace not be lynched, and I have a town read on Sharrant. But the notion he spreads here is another thing that is pro-mafia, when you think about it. Keeping Ace perma-jailed actually leaves town more vulnerable to KP than lynching him, because with the town jailer locked up, mafia KP is assuredly going to hit town. Now like I said, I think Sharrant is town. But the idea is there nonetheless, mafia have a clear motive for keeping Ace alive, even if he's confirmed third party. And who argued to keep Ace alive and not lynch him, despite believing him to be third party? Hopeless. At the bottom of page 215, you'll find a conversation between him and I about lynching Ace. I argue for the possibility, and he argues against it. I ask a very straightforward question, one that is at the root of the town win con: why should I, as town, care whether I'm lynching mafia or anti-town third party? Both of those groups have to die for town to win. Yet Hopeless disagrees. Why? It's because he's mafia, showing his true colors. Another interesting notion that goes along with Ace being third party is BC's read of him. If BC believed Ace to be third party, as he claimed to have done the whole game, why did he never push for his lynch? He doesn't care enough about the game to push his reads, even when he is here. I think he mentioned Ace being third party once, the whole game. Why didn't he try to persuade town to lynch him, if he felt that way throughout? Because he's been fixated on me the whole game, using some of town's suspicion of me as an excuse for a scum read to skate by. He doesn't care about solving the game, he cares about not getting lynched. That's why I thought he was survivor, but there are people who play scum the same way. Perhaps BC is one of them. All in all, the Ace flip only makes me more confident in my reads. I could be wrong, I admit, but I doubt it.
On May 06 2013 13:38 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2013 10:56 Sharrant wrote:On May 06 2013 10:54 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 06 2013 10:52 Sharrant wrote:On May 06 2013 10:44 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 06 2013 10:36 Sharrant wrote:On May 06 2013 10:29 yamato77 wrote: All I'm gaining from this game is that if you troll day one, you'll never live it down.
20 pages of filter and more analysis of this game than all of you, yet I'm still getting called mafia. It might also have to do with the fact that of the three lynches you pushed on day 1/2, 2 flipped town. Your first list of scum is 3 town, 1 unflipped and 1 3rd party, and that you have a soft defense of two scum thrown in for good measure. I'll grant you that there's some redeeming qualities in your filter, but there's a reason you're going to keep coming up as a lynch prospect in this game. We're not lynching BC today, and we're not lynching Palmar. I want both of them alive for at least another night. There's no way they're both scum, so let's find the one, possibly two that are outside of them. We're not? The vote count would appear to say otherwise currently. I doubt you're getting yamato lynched today; I'm certainly not voting for him. Is he honestly at L-2 right now? And yes, we are not lynching BC today. If I have to stop the wagon on him, I will. And I will not be happy about it. Uh...if you are saying that you have a way to do so, then you probably should if you don't want him lynched....though I'm thinking maybe you already did. He's at L-2, as long as the rest of the people that come into the thread think about things, there's no reason to do anything to defend him right now. I'll try something different here. Yamato: I am telling you that your own analysis will tell you, in the end, that BC is not scum if you stick to what you've said. Now talk to me about two people that would be scum if BC were as good as confirmed town. Palmar/Hopeless. I might rethink my town read of kush, but only if they both flip town. Palmar's claim is convenient. It's also sub-par for what I expect from Palmar, because it was objectively bad and he's not bad enough as town, I believe, to actually make that claim and expect to be taken seriously. There's also all the other stuff I've said about Palmar and his RB claim, plus my general doubts about his play. I've been letting it skate by because of my read of BC, but if I'm wrong about BC, Palmar is literally the next scummiest person, and he looks fairly bad. Hopeless I've talked about ad nauseum. He tryharded yesterday to look involved, but today he's done little to interact with town, as he has all game. Notably, Palmar also didn't want to lynch Hopeless yesterday because "he had some argument and it made him look townie" which is weak. I've been saying that these three (Palmar/BC/Hopeless) are the only ones I'm worried about for a reason. I've been asking for the claim for a reason, because confirming one of Palmar/BC virtually solves the game. Unless one of these two flips town, I have no reason to doubt the analysis I've made of this game.
Put 2+2 together, BC.
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