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On April 30 2013 06:02 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On April 30 2013 05:55 Stutters695 wrote:On April 30 2013 05:35 Ace wrote:On April 30 2013 05:26 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Something tells me based on what im reading I would be yelling as much as you Ace -_- Palmar has a guilty on you tho - thoughts? @stutters: what exactly are you referring to is being based on assumptions and should be done another way? I'm in my phone now so can't pull the exact quote but I remembered a detailed post about how people on the oats &ships wagons probably had a scum among them. Then your posts about cop claims and what they mean is all dependanrt on assumptions and thus could just be conjecture to appear active without giving out as much as you would with your earlier play which felt more solid to me. Since I'm a prime vig target and could easily die before or with Shiao i felt it worth bringing up because you're clearly able to pull off such a play. you have to start with some assumptions and go back to read each cops' posts. I dont see what else you expect us to do to figure this out - just take every claim at face value? You are like 4 days late with the Oats wagon analysis. It's been done to death and generally accepted by now. When you get off your phone just point out where the assumptions dont hold up and if it hasn't already been addressed I'll be here to talk about it.
Sorry I'm not making myself clear and I agree assumptions are necessary, but in addition to more question based analysis (and I do think your assumptions hold up as reasonable). It's more if Shiao flips red that kills a pretty major point of your contribution n2/d3 and it feels like your posting lacks the quality of your earlier posts in regards to discovering stuff in favor of theorizing which cop is lying instead of trying to determine which one/two are lying.
This is probably just me being paranoid but it's something I've strongly considered when thinking what i I would do in scums shoes.
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I feel a lot better about the 3 check plan but question I'm probably missing. If one is a fake (say palmar for ease of typing) and palmar is gf doesn't that ruin the plan since palmar would show up town/same while he could easily forge checks to whatever parity seems balanced to him?
Not saying it's likely but it does seem like a flaw we overlooked.
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Palmar was just an example, same could apply to VE or CC. I just had palmar's name in my phone so it was easy to Swype
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Obviously it would depend on what tonight's actions entail but the only issue I see with that is Ace would surely recognize that claiming rb twice would reveal him as poisoner if tomorrow night someone drops dead and he isn't rb'd tonight. There is no way he'd be able to cover it up to actually try for a win like that.
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Also does anyone at all think Gigyas is town?
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On May 01 2013 08:23 kushm4sta wrote:
k i just updated my read on stutters to town read. i could not understand any of the posts in his filter but it looks like he is doing some townie conspiracy theory shit
What? You can't understand my posts so I'm town? I mean my posting is identical to my other games where I'm busy but I don't understand how you come to a town read via conspiracy theories.
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Palmar I'm on my phone so I cba to search your entire filter but why claim when your sanity was unknown when there is a 50% chance your check is wrong and a lynch doesn't even guarantee determining your sanity?
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Wasn't the discussion a couple days ago that one cop was probably lying? Palmar happens to be paranoid after claiming cop without knowing his sanity while trying to lynch BC for a check? Is there something in his filter you see that really makes him town I'm missing?
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On May 02 2013 06:44 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2013 06:40 Stutters695 wrote:
Wasn't the discussion a couple days ago that one cop was probably lying? Palmar happens to be paranoid after claiming cop without knowing his sanity while trying to lynch BC for a check? Is there something in his filter you see that really makes him town I'm missing? Nothing about that REALLY makes him town but to pull that shit as scum and trying to do it in earnest doesn't make much sense either. I forget whose idea this was but I COULD see it being an attempt to protect BC if they were both scum considering no one would take his read seriously. Ugh the end of this game is gonna be tough.
Eh, it just feels like Palmar has done this not giving a shit before but it always came back to him trying. Additionally if part of his reason for not giving a shit was to survive n1, why is it still happening?
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Just for clarity my vote would be sitting on Palmar right now. The only reason it's not is I'm at work and its raining which means we might get really busy and I don't want to come back to a hammer like with Shiaopi and lose even more time.
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On May 02 2013 07:26 ObviousOne wrote:
We are simply not lynching palmar today. Anyone who has seriously suggested that we do so needs to take a break, step back, think about why, and prove to me he's the best lynch today.
Cop claim? Probably true
Broken cop? Definitely
Lazy? Tautology (see also n. Palmar)
Wants to kill BC? Isolate his reasons outside of his check. I wanted to kill BC d1 too for being sort of a jerk. From what I remember, because it would be fun? It totally would.
Today Palmar is my ally in lynching BC. I have demonstrated a scum mindset on BC's behalf that no one has proven to be demonstrably false.
We are running out of objectively scummy shit to lynch for.
I'm on my phone. Can you give me a brief summary of what you think BC has done to deserve the noose? I realize you've probably said it before but I can't filter dive right now.
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On May 02 2013 10:14 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2013 09:37 ObviousOne wrote:
Listen to Scumcast 3, really actually listen to it don't just play it in the background. Palmar talks about D1 lynches. It totally fits with everything he said in the cast. Oats was a good D1 lynch even though Oats was town. You cannot apologize for lynching town D1, and since you are usually going to hit town you have to make it a GOOD D1 lynch. A GOOD D1 lynch gives you information without lynching for information. You have people take sides, you see who flies in the face of logic, reason, how people escape the noose. Accept the fact that D1 lynches tend to hit town, accept that he understands and embraces this, and use the information constructively. His slip isn't a scum slip, it's his actual mindset. If that was the case, he would have said so as his reasonings. he would say " I explained why, your going to hit town just accept it unless yo uget lucky Go listen to the podcast again.." He said for reasons not explained, if he had time to do a cop check first, that would be one thing. But I want to know what those unexplained reasons are, Show nested quote +On April 29 2013 10:06 Palmar wrote:On April 29 2013 05:47 TheRavensName wrote:
He also mentioned that "oh oats was always gonna flip town. I didn't really care much for reasons best left unexplained. " Even a scum would at least kind of care right? The reasons best left unexplained have now been explained. I was actively trying to be useless/awful without sabotaging town. I usually say it's a terrible idea to change your play when you roll blue... but my normal play gets me shot night 1 almost every damn game, so I decided to give it a shot. This was not a satisfactory answer.
Seems to me from reading it that the "reasons best left unexplained" are that he wanted to appear on a bad lynch/completely off the mark to avoid getting shot.
Would like to hear Ace's thoughts but this makes me feel less good about a Palmar lynch.
Since I still can't filter dive, can you tell me what game cycle you were masoned to him on?
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On May 02 2013 11:55 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2013 10:41 Stutters695 wrote:On May 02 2013 10:14 TheRavensName wrote:On May 02 2013 09:37 ObviousOne wrote:
Listen to Scumcast 3, really actually listen to it don't just play it in the background. Palmar talks about D1 lynches. It totally fits with everything he said in the cast. Oats was a good D1 lynch even though Oats was town. You cannot apologize for lynching town D1, and since you are usually going to hit town you have to make it a GOOD D1 lynch. A GOOD D1 lynch gives you information without lynching for information. You have people take sides, you see who flies in the face of logic, reason, how people escape the noose. Accept the fact that D1 lynches tend to hit town, accept that he understands and embraces this, and use the information constructively. His slip isn't a scum slip, it's his actual mindset. If that was the case, he would have said so as his reasonings. he would say " I explained why, your going to hit town just accept it unless yo uget lucky Go listen to the podcast again.." He said for reasons not explained, if he had time to do a cop check first, that would be one thing. But I want to know what those unexplained reasons are, On April 29 2013 10:06 Palmar wrote:On April 29 2013 05:47 TheRavensName wrote:
He also mentioned that "oh oats was always gonna flip town. I didn't really care much for reasons best left unexplained. " Even a scum would at least kind of care right? The reasons best left unexplained have now been explained. I was actively trying to be useless/awful without sabotaging town. I usually say it's a terrible idea to change your play when you roll blue... but my normal play gets me shot night 1 almost every damn game, so I decided to give it a shot. This was not a satisfactory answer. Seems to me from reading it that the "reasons best left unexplained" are that he wanted to appear on a bad lynch/completely off the mark to avoid getting shot. Would like to hear Ace's thoughts but this makes me feel less good about a Palmar lynch. Since I still can't filter dive, can you tell me what game cycle you were masoned to him on? Yea but, we were in th QT, not the thread there friend. Its not a good answer eiter way. If I was scum, I wouldn't care for his mtoivations on lynching oats, in fact if anything that phrasing was more likely to get him shot just for being like a ominious blue threat if it didn';t come out day 1, I would be happy he did, and if he was scum, he wouldn't want those shared bcause its essentually "i need mislynches to win." If were both town, which I waked into that QT thinking we were, he should have told me so I can understand, especially when he knows this is my first non newbie game.
That's why I'm asking when he actually was masoned with you. I wasn't here d1 but I had some doubts about you when I was reading the thread waiting for the day to start so I could join.
If his post was early into d2 (assuming it was)he might not have been 100% sure you're town. Claiming in mason chat isn't common knowledge afaik and I could see him not being trusting from what I've seen of Palmar.
I don't think that alone is reason to lynch him.
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On May 02 2013 12:38 GiygaS wrote:
My computer just crushed destroying the little I had done on my post and my Frankenstein Essay. School takes priority, sorry guys, I'll try to make my post after I re-write my essay.
First, I hope that your essay turns out ok.
Seriously though, you go mia, come back to read the entire thread instead of commenting on anything relevant and go mia again. What reason is there to not lynch you?
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On May 02 2013 23:47 yamato77 wrote:
If I'm right about Hopeless, I actually think Ace really is the other mafia. He seems pretty demotivated about this game now, isn't pushing anything strongly, and acquiesces to lynching Hopeless without any comment on my case, why he suddenly believes me, or how he's arrived at that conclusion.
For someone who so vehemently called me mafia the whole game, he sure does feel fine with simply hopping along with the town sentiment I've created with the wagon on Hopeless. Bear in mind, he would do this regardless of Hopeless' alignment, because if Hopeless is mafia, he cannot risk sticking his neck out to save him when I have town sentiment on my side.
He's obviously here, reading the thread, so that means he's not simply inactive. He's lurking, but not providing any input on why he feels Hopeless is a good lynch, and is obviously not invested enough in his read of Palmar to push it over my case on Hopeless.
It's also a very real possibility he is SP. He wasn't rb'd n1 so it's either scum spent their joat(assuming they have one) vigi n2 or he poisoned.
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On May 03 2013 00:29 Sharrant wrote:
It would be very silly to lynch ace because he might be third party. If you think he's mafia push for his lynch. If you think he's third party and you're pushing for his lynch then stop. Read the op, think about it, read the op again, think about it in context of the game. Realize it's possible he's not third party and that he should be lynched after the last mafia dies and the game does not end, or if the jailer dies at some point. if someone can't point out why by the time I'm back from work, I'll explain..
It's pretty obvious why. Was just pointing out to yamato that I think it's considerably more likely he's 3p over scum.
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On May 03 2013 00:11 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Stutters, thoughts on BC case go.
Yamato: I think it's very likely that it was a 3rd party kill because I don't think Grush was a player that scum really feared.
I'll type up a more detailed version soon but I'm not nearly as sold on it as I am on hopeless or even Palmar. I'm having doubts about Palmar but until he delivers on his promised big post I'd rather him over bc.
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@Palmar lol, if you say so bud.
@Artanis I'm going through his filter to check it out myself but obviously I've got some doubts.
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Well after reading the case side by side with BCs filter here's what I see:
Self-aware Miller part: I wasn't around when this happened but reading it originally I agreed that Miller claiming is dumb. Not necessarily lynchable depending on circumstances but your entire paragraph falls flat because you can't discern when a scum does it and by not lynching them you've opened an avenue to get out of cop checks.
His long post where he mentions Yamato and CC and the four posts after: Consolidating wasn't the right word there but you're taking it out of context. I interpreted that as Yamato wasn't trying to actively get him lynched despite being the only constant read. Not sure if that's true as I haven't re-read that section in context with Yamato's posts. I'll have to check that when I have more time, but right now that's more null than anything else (if he is misrepresenting Yamato it is much more concerning).
The four posts after were within twenty minutes of the original post. If he had nothing else to add and VE was the only other poster the hell do you expect him to do other than comment about other issues in town?
The further into the case the more I agree with it however those points concerned me. I would like to hear his reasoning for the remainder of it but just reading it before without his filter and having those doubts I wasn't convinced without reading his filter myself. Still would prefer Hopeless but with the Palmar BC interactions I'd like to wait for BC to actually respond and Palmar's promised post.
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EPT
