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On May 03 2013 05:47 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:45 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 05:43 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:34 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 03 2013 04:20 yamato77 wrote:
Well, it's painfully obvious to me that we should just RNG between Ace/Hopeless/BC and insta-lynch them.
List Randomizer
There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
Hopeless
Cobbler
Ace
Timestamp: 2013-05-02 19:20:03 UTC
Random.org has spoken. We lynch Hopeless.You are advocating me (i know I am town) and Ace who is either 3p or town, and hopeless who given the context of the last few pages could easily be town or mafia. However Given I know you don't give two shits now about finding scum in any logical manner and have been trying to get Ace lynched first off this list (because he might be 3rd off a ton of wifom bullshit). You go first. No town member should be advocating a potential 3rd party player when we have mafia still alive. Especially when said potential third party has been pushing mafia lynches a fair bit this game. The only one who would give two shits about mafia dying quickly is rita skeeter as she wins if the game ends on any sides victory. Plain and simple you are mafia. I cannot believed I have waffled so much about this all game. Lol, you're bad. Hey, Yamato, do you remember how I knew you were scum the first game we played together? Can you remember exactly what it was? I'll give you a hint, I didn't notice it before, but you did exactly the same thing in this game. Your play since then has been very different, but this play was virtually identical. You fail to realize that that post was basically a scum claim from BC. Please explain to me how it was a scum claim, convince me he's scum. But please do answer, do you remember how I caught you when we played?
That game was a while ago, and my play is erratic as either alignment. Me insulting people is not alignment indicative, I assure you. Whatever metric you think you have on me, you don't.
That's a scum claim from BC because it's just shit. "You're pushing me, and some guys that might be town! You're mafia!" Real bad.
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On May 03 2013 05:52 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:49 WaveofShadow wrote:How so yamato? Also wtf Sharrant you accuse me of not reading then you say this? On May 03 2013 05:35 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet. Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der How are you failing at reading so hard? If a scum vigi shot on night 2 it would be exactly the same as if a serial poisoner acted on night one. Please keep up. Lynching him hurts town right now.I hate playing follow the cop, it's just boring. I'm waffling on lynching Hopeless right now, going to try and figure out if I want to lynch Yamato more or less. On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet.Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der Because I clearly explained where the vigi (if the scum have another vigi) had fired, and you were saying that the scum wouldn't have withheld their shot. It made no sense in the context of the conversation. It's completely out of place. I said it's possible scum could have fired on n2 if they had a second vigi, killing grush, and it would appear just the same as if a third party had done it. You responded with "Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet."
I find it highly unlike that a mafia shot was used on Grush.
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On May 03 2013 06:02 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 05:54 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 05:52 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:49 WaveofShadow wrote:How so yamato? Also wtf Sharrant you accuse me of not reading then you say this? On May 03 2013 05:35 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet. Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der How are you failing at reading so hard? If a scum vigi shot on night 2 it would be exactly the same as if a serial poisoner acted on night one. Please keep up. Lynching him hurts town right now.I hate playing follow the cop, it's just boring. I'm waffling on lynching Hopeless right now, going to try and figure out if I want to lynch Yamato more or less. On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet.Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der Because I clearly explained where the vigi (if the scum have another vigi) had fired, and you were saying that the scum wouldn't have withheld their shot. It made no sense in the context of the conversation. It's completely out of place. I said it's possible scum could have fired on n2 if they had a second vigi, killing grush, and it would appear just the same as if a third party had done it. You responded with "Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet." I find it highly unlike that a mafia shot was used on Grush. As do I, but the whole reason we're having this conversation is because Palmar sait that Ace is confirmed as third party, however unlikely mafia shooting Grush is, only mafia know for certain whether Ace is third party or not. Thus it is very important. And yeah, WoS, I just felt it needed to be reminded to everyone else again. Only the first bit was about you, the rest was to everyone else. Patience and repetition. Hey, Palmar, what checks did you do, and what results did you receive? You checked BC (RB'ed), BC (guilty), VE (guilty) is there one I'm missing?
I feel like grush dying means that there's third party, and there being 3rd party basically confirms Ace as the only candidate.
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On May 03 2013 06:04 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 06:02 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:54 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 05:52 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:49 WaveofShadow wrote:How so yamato? Also wtf Sharrant you accuse me of not reading then you say this? On May 03 2013 05:35 Sharrant wrote:On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet. Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der How are you failing at reading so hard? If a scum vigi shot on night 2 it would be exactly the same as if a serial poisoner acted on night one. Please keep up. Lynching him hurts town right now.I hate playing follow the cop, it's just boring. I'm waffling on lynching Hopeless right now, going to try and figure out if I want to lynch Yamato more or less. On May 03 2013 05:28 WaveofShadow wrote:Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet.Vote Hopeless and let's end this day because there doesn't seem to be anything left to say. Palmar is useless and this: Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. is dumb. Have you not noticed Ace's considerable lack of contribution since being RBed every night? He has no desire to help town anymore because he knows he's caught. Your constant hard defenses of him in the face of overwhelming evidence troubles me, Sharrant. It seems like you've lost your way somewhere in this game. ##Vote: Hopeless1der Because I clearly explained where the vigi (if the scum have another vigi) had fired, and you were saying that the scum wouldn't have withheld their shot. It made no sense in the context of the conversation. It's completely out of place. I said it's possible scum could have fired on n2 if they had a second vigi, killing grush, and it would appear just the same as if a third party had done it. You responded with "Sharrant you're wrong, there are no scum vigis left; if there were they wasted their shots on Ace or something. There is no way in hell scum would be sitting on vigi shots this late in the game. Ace is 3p, deal with it. I agree we don't lynch him yet." I find it highly unlike that a mafia shot was used on Grush. As do I, but the whole reason we're having this conversation is because Palmar sait that Ace is confirmed as third party, however unlikely mafia shooting Grush is, only mafia know for certain whether Ace is third party or not. Thus it is very important. And yeah, WoS, I just felt it needed to be reminded to everyone else again. Only the first bit was about you, the rest was to everyone else. Patience and repetition. Hey, Palmar, what checks did you do, and what results did you receive? You checked BC (RB'ed), BC (guilty), VE (guilty) is there one I'm missing? I feel like grush dying means that there's third party, and there being 3rd party basically confirms Ace as the only candidate.
Obviously I also feel that Palmar agreeing with this logic is not indicative of his alignment.
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Fuck this, we're lynching Cobbler.
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VOTE TO LYNCH BLOODYCOBBLER
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On May 03 2013 06:25 WaveofShadow wrote:Narp. I don't think I will.
Why?
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On May 03 2013 06:39 kushm4sta wrote:
like i dont even care who we kill bc or hopeless. i think they are both pretty fucking scummy. I just want one to die quick cause Im impatient.
This, really.
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I've been telling you guys that Ace and BC were suspicious the whole game. One flips third party, and you don't want to lynch the other?
Give me some validation here.
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On May 04 2013 02:59 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2013 02:29 yamato77 wrote:
I've been telling you guys that Ace and BC were suspicious the whole game. One flips third party, and you don't want to lynch the other?
Give me some validation here. Ive called Ace third party since n1. Want a cookie? You called VE scum and were wrong, you wanted oats dead for being scum and were wrong. You can say I am scummy but I am town so you are wrong there. So why would anyone listen to you?
I very clearly argued against an Oats lynch, but thanks for showing how little attention you're paying to this game.
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You're just mad you're going to lose.
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I'm sticking to my Hopeless/BC scumteam.
BC's read of me is no longer explainable as simple bias, it's literally the scummiest thing in the whole game.
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On May 03 2013 05:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 04:20 yamato77 wrote:
Well, it's painfully obvious to me that we should just RNG between Ace/Hopeless/BC and insta-lynch them.
List Randomizer
There were 3 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
Hopeless
Cobbler
Ace
Timestamp: 2013-05-02 19:20:03 UTC
Random.org has spoken. We lynch Hopeless. You are advocating me (i know I am town) and Ace who is either 3p or town, and hopeless who given the context of the last few pages could easily be town or mafia. However Given I know you don't give two shits now about finding scum in any logical manner and have been trying to get Ace lynched first off this list (because he might be 3rd off a ton of wifom bullshit). You go first. No town member should be advocating a potential 3rd party player when we have mafia still alive. Especially when said potential third party has been pushing mafia lynches a fair bit this game. The only one who would give two shits about mafia dying quickly is rita skeeter as she wins if the game ends on any sides victory. Plain and simple you are mafia. I cannot believed I have waffled so much about this all game.
Read this post against and tell me just how much like bullshit it sounds.
Completely ridiculous.
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I believe I've solved the game
Note that I've already given my read of everyone in the game in my filter, a day ago, and I have little reason to change any of it, except now I would say Artanis is more likely town than before.
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First of all, I want to make an immediate point. On night one, there were two role blocks. We've seen a mafia JK flip. We know he was responsible for one, and that person is confirmed not mafia. The other one could very well be the result of a town JK, and that person's alignment would still be unknown. However, by process of elimination, if the town JK claims, we have two confirmed town, and one of them is Palmar/BC.
The only downside to claiming is that you'll 100% be shot tonight if you do it before the day post, but if you wait until after, we might not get the chance to know. I would claim, because I think I know who it is, and if I can figure it out, mafia probably can as well. You'll literally be giving us a PRIZED piece of the puzzle here, as confirming one of those two is fucking amazing. So do it.
Thus ends the concrete portion of today's analysis of the game state.
Next, I want to think about a notion I've been considering since Ace flipped third party, and one that may lead to a more complete understanding of the game. It's speculative, but it's interesting.
What does Ace flipping third party give us in terms of information? Normally, I don't think it would give much, because neither mafia nor town can know Ace's alignment, so it's possible that mafia vote for him just like town, right?
Wrong. It's in mafia's best interest to have KP like a third party poisoner floating around, especially in a scenario like the one we're in now, where town vastly outnumbers mafia. The scum team need all the help they can get, so if they think someone is serial poisoner, they might shy away from lynching him.
So that brings me to this post from Sharrant:
On May 03 2013 05:02 Sharrant wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2013 04:42 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote:On May 03 2013 04:34 yamato77 wrote:On May 03 2013 04:32 Hopeless1der wrote:
why the fuck is ace in that list? Should I care with which order I lynch anti-town elements in this game? Yes considering Ace's KP is controlled atm Only if you assume the JK plays along with our plan, and mafia doesn't already know who he is. If I can figure it out, I'm sure they aren't that stupid. The only exception to the following is thus: You think Ace is mafia and bussed 2 of his teammates, and possibly a third. No, it's quite demonstrably anti-town to lynch Ace. It's been explained several times. There are three situations where you lynch Ace: One: At least one night before LyLo. Two: If the jailer dies to a night kill. Even if the jailer dies to a night kill, Ace will still be RB'ed and thus cannot kill anyone, and he can be lynched without losing any townies. Three: We have 5 dead mafia and the game has not ended. Why do you people not understand this? Ace is not in any way shape or form confirmed third party. He is the only candidate that could be third party (aside from a survivor) but lynching him is ANTI-TOWN. Lynching him now means we give another night to the mafia members in return for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Unless our jailer pops up and goes "I'm not RB'ing Ace tonight" then there's no reason to lynch him. On top of that, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE HE'S NOT THIRD PARTY. If there's a scum Vigi still left alive (which is just as likely in my books as Ace being mafia just due to set up analysis) it would explain the exact same scenario we are in. So anyone not looking at that like it's a possibility is either not using their brain, or is mafia trying to push an agenda. Whether or not he's third party, it is not good town play to lynch him. He still may be town, and either way he's one of the stronger analysts in the game. I'd rather have the counsel of a man who knows he is doomed to lose, than potentially kill a townie AND waste time not killing mafia when Ace is already a completely solved situation. TLDR; There's never a situation in which Ace kills a townie unless our jailer dies AND we spend the following day not lynching Ace. Ace is a bad lynch today. I don't want to have to argue this anymore, I'm going to go read stuff, and if anyone tries to dispute this and cannot prove even a single specific scenario where this breaks down, I will just assume you're mafia and go from there because you will be pushing anti-town agendas with the knowledge that it has no benefit to town, and only helps mafia.
Most of this is, on its face, reasonable. Actually, I'm pretty sure that Sharrant here believes it to be fine and dandy that Ace not be lynched, and I have a town read on Sharrant. But the notion he spreads here is another thing that is pro-mafia, when you think about it. Keeping Ace perma-jailed actually leaves town more vulnerable to KP than lynching him, because with the town jailer locked up, mafia KP is assuredly going to hit town.
Now like I said, I think Sharrant is town. But the idea is there nonetheless, mafia have a clear motive for keeping Ace alive, even if he's confirmed third party. And who argued to keep Ace alive and not lynch him, despite believing him to be third party?
Hopeless. At the bottom of page 215, you'll find a conversation between him and I about lynching Ace. I argue for the possibility, and he argues against it. I ask a very straightforward question, one that is at the root of the town win con: why should I, as town, care whether I'm lynching mafia or anti-town third party? Both of those groups have to die for town to win. Yet Hopeless disagrees. Why? It's because he's mafia, showing his true colors.
Another interesting notion that goes along with Ace being third party is BC's read of him. If BC believed Ace to be third party, as he claimed to have done the whole game, why did he never push for his lynch? He doesn't care enough about the game to push his reads, even when he is here. I think he mentioned Ace being third party once, the whole game. Why didn't he try to persuade town to lynch him, if he felt that way throughout?
Because he's been fixated on me the whole game, using some of town's suspicion of me as an excuse for a scum read to skate by. He doesn't care about solving the game, he cares about not getting lynched. That's why I thought he was survivor, but there are people who play scum the same way. Perhaps BC is one of them.
All in all, the Ace flip only makes me more confident in my reads. I could be wrong, I admit, but I doubt it.
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It literally gives us 2 confirmed town, the JK, and the guy he didn't protect night 1.
You're delusional if you think that's scummy.
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And you are scummy, because you never did push any lynch.
I find it funny that you want to reject logic that might confirm you as town with the JK business.
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On May 05 2013 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2013 02:48 yamato77 wrote:
It literally gives us 2 confirmed town, the JK, and the guy he didn't protect night 1.
You're delusional if you think that's scummy. and we lose the jk who is as far as we know the only person able to deflect mafia kp. so we trade someone who can extend the game for a few days if it goes badly for one guy who will get shot the following night.
I'll take that trade, because you/Palmar are the remaining question marks.
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Who knows, JK might be someone else we're looking at.
Why the fuck are you arguing against confirming 2 town this late in the game?
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