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On April 13 2013 02:25 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2013 02:18 Restraining Order wrote:On April 13 2013 02:15 Keirathi wrote:On April 13 2013 02:13 Restraining Order wrote:On April 13 2013 02:10 Keirathi wrote:On April 13 2013 02:05 Sn0_Man wrote:On April 13 2013 02:00 Keirathi wrote:On April 13 2013 01:56 Sn0_Man wrote:
Wat about shelvocke?
PS: M_Z is hard confirmed green unless godfather because SnB/M_Z is too many scum (assuming one is BM/Caller) and they both have roles that aren't traitor. Maybe I'll check Shelvocke instead. Also, it should be noted that any red check should be lynched tomorrow, no questions asked. If that person ends up not flipping scum, that means that RO is using framing and therefor is scum. Lynch him the next day. Well, red checks can also mean the checker is scum but that is fine because we know who he is as well. This game is so nigh-unloseable that I want to invent KP just to speed it up. KP is the "faster" option. But really, its almost always better to play it safe. Right now its either 12-1, or 11-2. Assuming scum still has an active KP role to use (which might not be the case), at most 3 people should die tonight. Which gives us 2 more lynches and nights (at least) before LYLO. No need to get hasty, especially when we apparently have so many investigation roles. Every extra KP used at this point just makes us that much more likely to lose because people are impatient. I don't think a compuslive day-justicevig gun would be a bad invention. Maybe, if it was given to a suspect that we aren't checking tonight. Like Shelvocke? And as long as he listens to town on who to shoot. I still think its silly to throw away townies just for a check though. Why not just have a check? :o Because there's a dude that flipped having "gf" as a role extra. Nothing to say other mafia can't get that addition too. Imagine you end up with 10 people and greenchecks on all of them. Then you suddenly wish you had a gun. The reason I'm not quite as worried about this is that I think there's a decent chance our last scum is between one of Mocsta and S&B. Why, you ask? Because Sharrant had a good point. Why did scum pick Assassin without a way to check roles? Did they just hope to get enough roleclaims to keep shooting? That is possible, but it seems like a poor picking strategy as scum to rely on town to do something that it doesn't necessarily want to do. Also, I have no reason to believe that different theme character classes can get the same bonuses. At least not at this point. Assassin was probably the "gangster" archetype. Neither capitalist or DT would be. *MAYBE* they would for some reason get a GF bonus, but I kind of doubt it.
I am aware of that argument and how it implicates snb.
Less so mocsta though, capitalist is not a role that can even get a bonus afaik. Since it's "multi-purpose", and not in one of the bonus-having categories.
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On April 13 2013 03:25 Sn0_Man wrote:
Who joined the PM network? Oats you here?
I'm assuming with Kurumi around you know now?
We have a new friend, I can attest.
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On April 13 2013 03:26 Restraining Order wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2013 03:25 Sn0_Man wrote:
Who joined the PM network? Oats you here?
I'm assuming with Kurumi around you know now? We have a new friend, I can attest.
Oh, and it's Keirathi.
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On April 13 2013 03:47 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2013 03:26 Restraining Order wrote:On April 13 2013 03:26 Restraining Order wrote:On April 13 2013 03:25 Sn0_Man wrote:
Who joined the PM network? Oats you here?
I'm assuming with Kurumi around you know now? We have a new friend, I can attest. Oh, and it's Keirathi. Should have invited Bill Murray.
You are aware that the adds are random and there's nothing oats can do about it yes?
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In general, if somebody lynches a scum without giving any reason for it, he's actually more likely to be town, since if he was mafia, he'd try to milk his bus for towncred as much as possible.
+ Show Spoiler +Kinda like Mr. Geript is milking his push/stuff on VE for max towncred for pages now.
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On April 13 2013 04:44 geript wrote:
Lol... At least I know who to shoot.
Dis gun be good
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I don't mind getting the gun.
No matter what, it's a win-win situation for me, then.
Either I win game for u scrubs, or I don't need to read the thread anymore.
I'm down for either.
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It's never too late for wifom
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On April 13 2013 10:48 Bill Murray wrote:
i just wanted to see your reaction
im not sending any kill in?
well, considering:
You must shoot every night that you are alive.
Good luck with that.
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Lynching Vivax now.
Could lynch snb too.
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sinani says his bonus only applies to the double-lynch (2-shot instead of 1). Which sounds like the town bonus, mafia would have probably gotten 2 rigs, I guess.
He has a green check on him.
He didn't vote-rig away from their CPR doc.
Confirmed scum tried to get him lynched.
I'm inclined to believe he is town.
The lynch should be between Vivax and snb.
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On April 13 2013 22:57 Restraining Order wrote:
sinani says his bonus only applies to the double-lynch (2-shot instead of 1). Which sounds like the town bonus, mafia would have probably gotten 2 rigs, I guess.
He has a green check on him.
He didn't vote-rig away from their CPR doc.
Confirmed scum tried to get him lynched.
I'm inclined to believe he is town.
The lynch should be between Vivax and snb.
Actually, we can just lynch both.
hint hint.
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On April 13 2013 23:01 yamato77 wrote:
I would rather have him use his vote rig on the leading candidate so we can not worry about that power
that's fine we can doublelynch tomorrow too. Doesn't change anything in the end.
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On April 13 2013 23:01 yamato77 wrote:
I would rather have him use his vote rig on the leading candidate so we can not worry about that power
I thought about it some more, and there is actually no reason to make him do his pseudo-rig today, instead of tomorrow.
The line of thinking I had there was - if he has a gf bonus he could still be mafia
and then I was thinking that mafia would likely get the 2-shot bonus on the voterig instead of the double-lynch.
However, those are 2 bonuses. So they are mutually exlusive.
Which means, that even if you are worried about him being mafia still (which I admit I'm not), he still only has one voterig.
Math: (bitches love math)
9-1 today
doublelynch and NK (let's humor this and say we double mislynch, which I find unlikely, but ok.)
6-1
make sinani voterig the leading candidate, let's say he doesn't and claims scum and stuff (NOTE: if his bonus indeed was gf, he wouldn't have a second doublelynch)
4-1
try to lynch sinani, he voterigs it away
2-1
poor powerless sinani that has claimed scum previously against two furious townies.
There is no mathematically possible way for a scum sinani to still win this game.
It is unneccesary to worry about him.
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On April 13 2013 23:51 strongandbig wrote:
Yammo is vanilla townie
If deconduo was scum janitor we could be looking for a traitor, otherwise I guess we are forced to conclude he really was a townie who used janitor night 1
Why do ppl want to lynch me? This is like the first time that most of my scum reads have actually been correct
Also lynching one of our investigative roles when we don't have to seems pretty dumb. Whether I'm town or scum, anyone I give a green check to is not scum
Also also BM not wanting to shoot me is not alignment indicative towards me, because if he shoots me and I'm not scum then BM gets auto lynched
Why did you investigate M_Z on n1?
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Pretty sure that was Oats, dud.
Anyways, snb I'll give you 5 more minutes to answer my simple question.
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Okay.
On April 10 2013 07:04 strongandbig wrote:
if i were a vig i would probably shoot oo
or maybe i am a vig and have shot him already! scum you will never know the truth
On April 10 2013 08:44 strongandbig wrote:
obviousone
still shelvocke
both for reasons expressed earlier in my filter as well as by others
maybe meapak, he's acting as i would expect a pretty demoralized scummer to act (ie, not playing or defending himself) and i would expect scum to be pretty demoralized after that d1
but basically i'm expecting so much stuff to happen at the end of this night phase that i haven't seen much reason to be super active until we know what's happening
On April 10 2013 08:45 strongandbig wrote:
mocsta what do you think of obviousone?
for that matter what do you think of sharrant?
no need for a filter dive impressions are fine
The only mention he made here of M_Z before investigating him
maybe meapak, he's acting as i would expect a pretty demoralized scummer to act (ie, not playing or defending himself) and i would expect scum to be pretty demoralized after that d1
That's a pretty weak line of suspicion.
He said far more about OO, in a far 'stronger' way. Prime example:
if i were a vig i would probably shoot oo etc.
This begs the question: Why didn't he investigate OO?
Looks more like he didn't actually want OO lynched.
His "push" on what is painted as his strongest scumread on the following day was decidedly weak too. "I'm voting OO, okay?" and things of that amount of impact, nothing actually substantial.
Now, plenty of people pushed OO/Sharrant lynches for relatively weak reasons (me included), but you'd expect more from a guy that has said his strongest scumread is on him.
How I see that situation - snb wants to have OO as top scum read in case OO flips.
snb does not actually want to push town into lynching OO though - his role is very valuable KP. He just tries to look like it.
In case snb flips instead, OO looks better for scum "pushing" him.
A town copandbig in that situation would not have investigated M_Z over OO.
A town cop in the position snb was in (credibility-wise) would have made sure of OO (who, as a high placing player on the draft list, is very likely to have a really strong role for his alignment) instead of some guy he's mildly suspicious of.
Instead, he went for a weak read, giving him a 'safe' towncheck to throw out, while giving him what he really wanted out of it - information about M_Z's role.
snb is a bad cop, not a good cop.
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In case that's not clear, and to make it clear for certain people that don't read the thead (totally not looking at mocsta here), those are posts he did during n1.
Make sure to read his filter yourself to check his subsequent actions!
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On April 14 2013 01:17 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2013 00:22 Restraining Order wrote:Okay.
On April 10 2013 07:04 strongandbig wrote:
if i were a vig i would probably shoot oo
or maybe i am a vig and have shot him already! scum you will never know the truth On April 10 2013 08:44 strongandbig wrote:
obviousone
still shelvocke
both for reasons expressed earlier in my filter as well as by others
maybe meapak, he's acting as i would expect a pretty demoralized scummer to act (ie, not playing or defending himself) and i would expect scum to be pretty demoralized after that d1
but basically i'm expecting so much stuff to happen at the end of this night phase that i haven't seen much reason to be super active until we know what's happening On April 10 2013 08:45 strongandbig wrote:
mocsta what do you think of obviousone?
for that matter what do you think of sharrant?
no need for a filter dive impressions are fine The only mention he made here of M_Z before investigating him maybe meapak, he's acting as i would expect a pretty demoralized scummer to act (ie, not playing or defending himself) and i would expect scum to be pretty demoralized after that d1 That's a pretty weak line of suspicion. He said far more about OO, in a far 'stronger' way. Prime example: if i were a vig i would probably shoot oo etc. This begs the question: Why didn't he investigate OO? Looks more like he didn't actually want OO lynched. His "push" on what is painted as his strongest scumread on the following day was decidedly weak too. "I'm voting OO, okay?" and things of that amount of impact, nothing actually substantial. Now, plenty of people pushed OO/Sharrant lynches for relatively weak reasons (me included), but you'd expect more from a guy that has said his strongest scumread is on him. How I see that situation - snb wants to have OO as top scum read in case OO flips. snb does not actually want to push town into lynching OO though - his role is very valuable KP. He just tries to look like it. In case snb flips instead, OO looks better for scum "pushing" him. A town copandbig in that situation would not have investigated M_Z over OO. A town cop in the position snb was in (credibility-wise) would have made sure of OO (who, as a high placing player on the draft list, is very likely to have a really strong role for his alignment) instead of some guy he's mildly suspicious of. Instead, he went for a weak read, giving him a 'safe' towncheck to throw out, while giving him what he really wanted out of it - information about M_Z's role. snb is a bad cop, not a good cop. Look at when I first brought up OO when I was trying to get sharrant to post more. Was OO under any suspicion at that point? If he was I don't remember it. The reason I was hesitant was because I made a superficially similar case on OO in red team mafia and he was town. But if I'm his scum buddy there's absolutely no motivation or upside for me to focus more attention on him during day 1 when both VE and artanis are prime thread suspects begging to be lynched. It's just stupid play, and I thought if there was one thing we established in red team it's that I may be bad at scum hunting but I'm not stupid.
However, I was telling the truth night one - if I was a vig I would have shot him. However, that makes him a bad check - I thought the odds were decent that someone else would actually do it.Also a general rule as a blue - never talk about who you're actually going to act on. It's just begging for a roleblock if you're right and it's letting scum know they don't have to worry about you if you're wrong. Like, I can't believe you're actually using "he didn't check the guy he was talking about that night" as a reason I'm scum.
Under that assumption, how exactly does he make a better shot, then? In that case, you doublestack the KP.
I don't buy it.
Yes I use the fact that you didn't check OO after saying you'd shoot him. Cop checks and shots use the same thought process for target selection, and it makes no sense to say "I would totally have shot and risk a doublestack, but I wouldn't check a guy that might maybe die"
Look, if we're not supposed to lynch you today,
Who do you suggest should be lynched instead of you?
How about you talk about that instead.
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FWIW, the same argument was used on the justice vig pick. And see how that turned out..
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EPT
