EPTRED Team's Prize - Page 108
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
3) There is a mason circle at the start of the game.. and somebody might be eavesdropping! | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
From Acro - "Reread the Sinani exchange and you're right. I don't like his reaction at all. He is very cagey about the whole thing. Problem with Sinani is that he always looks like scum to me. I haven't yet played or read a game in which I thought he was town." Then why did he later say "I had a quick look at Sinani's town meta (think I only ever played with him as scum) and he seems more useful." Hmmmm. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Random thing is that I know rayn posts under BLFG in general obsQTs (I've seen him post under that name in other obsQTs), so it's not some attempt at hiding identity, I don't think | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Sinani is prob town because of how much Acro wanted him dead last cycle. Sinani had a high chance of dying, and I don't think mafia would double-bus on a lynch. There is of course the possibility that Acro was planning to vote-rig at the end fo the day to save Sinani, but eh... that seems pretty convoluted. Anyway by elimination, the 3rd scum pretty much has to be Oats. If there's a 4th, probably Prplhz. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:32 marvellosity wrote: Not a chance I'm reading 100 posts in a mason-log right now, that will have to wait until tomorrow. Random thing is that I know rayn posts under BLFG in general obsQTs (I've seen him post under that name in other obsQTs), so it's not some attempt at hiding identity, I don't think Yeah that much I know for sure. However Rayn was attempting to hide his identity earlier in the mason logs by posting under "some random dude" | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:33 Hapahauli wrote: Well that's why Acro was scummy yeah, but what's the significance in regards to Sinani? Sinani is prob town because of how much Acro wanted him dead last cycle. Sinani had a high chance of dying, and I don't think mafia would double-bus on a lynch. There is of course the possibility that Acro was planning to vote-rig at the end fo the day to save Sinani, but eh... that seems pretty convoluted. Anyway by elimination, the 3rd scum pretty much has to be Oats. If there's a 4th, probably Prplhz. I have issues with some of this. I'll look into it more tomorrow. Both you and Kei are both beating the drum that Acro wanted sinani dead, but you have to remember that Acro was completely and totally on nisani, and not sinani, during Day 1, and I think you're either forgetting this or not attaching not enough importance to it. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:34 marvellosity wrote: I have issues with some of this. I'll look into it more tomorrow. Both you and Kei are both beating the drum that Acro wanted sinani dead, but you have to remember that Acro was completely and totally on nisani, and not sinani, during Day 1, and I think you're either forgetting this or not attaching not enough importance to it. Day 2. Difficult for me to imagine Acro willingly bussing not one, but two of his teammates on the double-lynch. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On March 29 2013 06:56 Acrofales wrote: I have time for one more filter and picked Sinani. I actually think there's a good chance he's scum. 1. He was cagey on the OO claim. He didn't just have an opinion, but was very careful, as if he didn't want to stick his neck out. 2. No reads. He has given his opinion of Nisani. Other than that? Nothing. I don't even know what he thought of OO with the lack of a role PM. A minor blurb about prplhz. I had a quick look at Sinani's town meta (think I only ever played with him as scum) and he seems more useful. I agree that he is more active than his usual scumgame, but a 2 page filter is not exactly the paragon of an active townie. Sinani, who do you want to lynch, why? Why have you not said anything at all about anybody except Nisani. As an added bonus, Nisani thought he was scum at the end, and they have a long history together. It might have been an OMGUS and I have to save myself, but he did give a scumread on Sinani. On March 29 2013 06:57 Acrofales wrote: So in closing, tomorrow we should focus on Smurf and Sinani.If they both suddenly prove they're townie, then OO and probably Marv, but fairly certain there's scum between Smurf and Sinani. On March 29 2013 07:07 Acrofales wrote: I survived!  I don't know why you're surprised at Palmar being town, while not doing much, he was clearly not playing like he does as scum. Gonna go over his filter, but he didn't leave any reads I don't think. So... we lynch Smurf and Sinani! ##vote Smurf ##vote Sinani On March 30 2013 06:22 Acrofales wrote: Marv, is Oats town? He's not hyperactive like usual. It's starting to make me itch. Anyway, Sinani has disappeared, so still happy with my vote today. Sorting out the rest is a worry for tomorrow. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:35 Hapahauli wrote: Day 2. Difficult for me to imagine Acro willingly bussing not one, but two of his teammates on the double-lynch. yes, I'm totally aware you're talking about Day 2, I'm saying you're disregarding Day 1 when you're thinking about this. Acro mafia is pretty much 100% bound to bus Smurf, so we can forget that. That just leaves lynch target #2. At the time when Acro made his case on sinani, sinani was under at least some sort of pressure. You thought he was the more likely mafia between nisani and sinani, and nisani had just flipped town. I'd thought sinani was much more likely to be mafia if Nisani flipped town. Palmar thought sinani was more likely mafia than sinani. Realistically you should be completely forgetting Smurf in this occasion. So what were the circumstances where Acro was bussing sinani? sinani wasn't under *that* much pressure from anyone. Smurf was #1 of course but #2 was completely up for grabs. It could have been me, it could have been OO, it could have been strongandbig, it could have been sinani. It's actually perfectly possible and reasonable that an Acro under not too much pressure could bus a sinani that's also not under too much pressure. I just remember Liquid City towards the end of Day 1, where I randomly hard bussed Node out of nowhere on Day 1 and he barely avoided the lynch. My bus on Node that game was far more likely to lead to a lynch than Acro randomly deciding to bus sinani. Bear in mind that Acro didn't push sinani at all. He attacked him, but the followup has been negligible. None of this *has to be* the case, but I'm trying to show that if it were the case, it's not actually that unlikely at all, in my opinion. | ||
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Keirathi
United States4679 Posts
I just find it extremely hard to believe that he puts 2 teammates and 2 townies in his list, but neither of the townies are the ones he actually wants to push. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Rayn seems alright as well due to mason logs and setup clues. So scum = Yamato, Oats, and prplhz if there's a 4th teammate. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:42 Keirathi wrote: "So in closing, tomorrow we should focus on Smurf and Sinani.If they both suddenly prove they're townie, then OO and probably Marv," is particularly interesting, with OO flipping town and clearing marv (for all intents and purposes, although we don't exactly what it is that he knew). I just find it extremely hard to believe that he puts 2 teammates and 2 townies in his list, but neither of the townies are the ones he actually wants to push. Your opinion here is nonsense. You're attaching far too much importance on what a mafia is saying. I don't find it hard to believe at all. It's very easy to put mafia on a list that you want to lynch - the question is, are you actually trying to lynch them? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:44 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah just read it and I disagree. I think you're underplaying the double-lynch factor and the amount of suspicion Sinani was under at the time. Basically Acro went straight from the Nisani lynch to immediately pushing Smurf/Sinani. Never explored other options at all. well I vehemently disagree. If both Oats and prplhz are mafia I will be monumentally surprised. I attach a > 1% possibility to this combination. I may have been shit recently but I just don't see this. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Anyways I'm done for a while. It would be ideal if obv-townies weren't discussing this. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On March 31 2013 08:47 Hapahauli wrote: Oh well. Anyways I'm done for a while. It would be ideal if obv-townies weren't discussing this. Actually we're the ideal people to be discussing this. Between you/me/Kei, we're the strongest players around to discuss this. That said, I'm about to go out again. I'll be back again before lynch time tomorrow to talk about it more, though. | ||
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